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Racehorse TALK



Country and Provincial NSW - N.S.W Gallops - Racehorse TALK

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Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-May-15, 01:25 AM Reply #1150 »
Bet of the day tomorrow in the last at scone. Darleb  :thumbsup:

Watch out for the Messara horse first up mate. Big bugger been given 3 trials leading into his first up run.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-May-15, 01:49 AM Reply #1151 »
I thought R1 #6 Married To The Mob looked an excellent each way chance tomorrow at Scone. First start was 2nd to a very good Qld horse Rothfire. Then ran 7th in a MM lead up race - winner came 4th in the MM. 2 trials leading into this. Maiden class and might be better than that.

R3 #1 Live And Free went to the line very nicely on debut in Australia. It's only got 4 above the limit and some of those down the board you can put a line straight through. #2 Secretly Awesome is equal fave and is a big threat.

R4 #10 The Bopper picks himself on the back of a track record on debut at Tamworth. 3rd horse came out and won an open 2YO at Taree on Monday. $1.70 - parlay value only.

Race 5 I'm torn between #2 Van Giz who was a bit stiff after being wide at Gosford (last place in the world you want to be wide) last start, and #5 Sedona who will like the drop back to 1100m and the class seems a little less - winner of that race last start Reformist was placed in the Ming Dynasty.  Barrier tips me toward #2.

In the Cup, I thought any number of horses had a chance.

Will go for Pete Snowden to get a home town win with #5 Military Zone. Deserved to win last start when wide most of the way and that seems to be the form race for this. Have had a place bet on #9 Black On Gold as well but this is a tough race.

In the last going for the home town Messara horse first up #11 Deepwood Vale. Big lumping Redoute's Choice horse who has won 2 from 4 plus a 3rd. It is a half brother to triple stakes winner Religify. 3 trials leading into this and I like the big track and the 1300m first up. Visualizing him coming down the outside with a bit of space.

Wily's tip #2 Darleb the definite danger, and don't leave #1 Mayaaseh out of the chances. Little bit disappointing the two runs this campaign but better than that.






Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-15, 08:14 AM Reply #1152 »
Right across the card there is plenty with good form who are at huge prices.
Iíll be scouting wide :thumbsup:

Offline fours

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« 2020-May-15, 03:12 PM Reply #1153 »
PP7,

There is at least 2 ff's you could have got there for not much outlay.

Fours

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-May-15, 05:03 PM Reply #1154 »

In the last going for the home town Messara horse first up #11 Deepwood Vale. Big lumping Redoute's Choice horse who has won 2 from 4 plus a 3rd. It is a half brother to triple stakes winner Religify. 3 trials leading into this and I like the big track and the 1300m first up. Visualizing him coming down the outside with a bit of space.

Wily's tip #2 Darleb the definite danger, and don't leave #1 Mayaaseh out of the chances. Little bit disappointing the two runs this campaign but better than that.

Cost me the tri the Messara horse.

Had a "get out" collect on the Qld daily double. Mayaaseh is a black type horse who can carry her weight and the $12 was overs. Apart from that a shocker   :lol:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-15, 05:04 PM Reply #1155 »
I thought I got the bob in on Darleb. Got out to a great price :tears:😢😢😢😢

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-May-21, 04:06 AM Reply #1156 »
There is one running around in the 2nd at Wagga tomorrow, #6 Avachatnow. An amazing effort to cop interference from a fallen horse in the straight and recover to run 3rd on debut.

Quite happy with the $8 each way where a lot of these have had their chance.

https://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2020Jan21&VenueCode=MTIxMzY3NA==&RaceNumber=4&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=Last400m

Fave #9 Starliv is an obvious danger and fascinated by the unraced ex Tasmanian horse who is in his 3rd stable and only track appearance was 2nd in an Elwick barrier trial - $3 Stormzone

Race 1 thought the #4 horse Queen Of War was overs at the $23. Wagga form is usually a few lengths ahead of Leeton and Tumut form where a lot of these have been racing, and it was a good debut in a race where the pace seemed to be pretty hot.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-21, 08:28 AM Reply #1157 »
PP, Avachatnow is in my BB as well👍

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-May-21, 09:34 AM Reply #1158 »
PP, Avachatnow is in my BB as well👍

They've had a bit of a crack at the #2  :chin:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-May-21, 12:48 PM Reply #1159 »
PP, Avachatnow is in my BB as well👍

Little bit held up in the straight. Probably should have run second but favourite too good.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-May-29, 11:03 AM Reply #1160 »
Love this race...and the track. Spent many a Saturday non-Tabbie at Casino races back in the 80's.

Race 7 - 3:50PM CASINO RSM CLUB BEEF WEEK CUP (1400 METRES)

Of $31,500.1st $15,065, 2nd $5,400, 3rd $2,880, 4th $1,785, 5th $1,150, 6th $990, 7th $900, 8th $900, 9th $900, 10th $900, Equine Welfare Fund $315, Jockey Welfare Fund $315.
Handicap, Minimum Weight 55kg, Apprentices can claim.
BOBS Silver Bonus Available Up To $9625


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Wgt BM Should Carry
1 11112x5981 ASHMAN Matthew Dunn Ms Emily Atkinson (a2/53kg) 11 64 90 64
2 5610131202 MELTED MOMENTS David Campbell Kyle Wilson-Taylor (a2/50kg) 9 63.5 89 63.5
3 4538x84228 EVOPEX Jim Jarvis Luke Rolls 15 58 78 58
4 251844242x NOTHINGFORTHEPRESS Stephen Lee SCRATCHED 16 58 78 58
5 x516126x63 PLEASED Stephen Lee Ben Looker 7 58 78 58
6 0110x44012 EXCLUSIVE Stephen Bennett Matthew McGuren 6 57.5 77 57.5
7 6x8971116x PARTNERSHIP (NZ) Ethan Ensby SCRATCHED 3 57 76 57
8 211909079 LANDMARKS Scott Cumming Leah Kilner (a0/53kg) 10 56 74 56
9 40x136200x LE MATTAN Matthew Dunn Kirk Matheson 12 55 69 53.5
10 6272121034 MIDWEEK HUSSLER Todd Fletcher Ms Mikayla Weir (a0/52kg) 2 55 69 53.5
11 35x0907477 COOL PRINCE John Shelton Ms Kasie Stanley 5 55 68 53
12 0x48211274 ANTILIA Daniel S Bowen Noriyuki Masuda (late alt) 18 55 66 52
13 615165x311 AT WITZ END Owen Glue Ms Belinda Hodder 14 55 66 52
14 6380268x56 PRIMA STELLA Daniel & Rocky Simonetta Raymond Spokes 1 55 66 52
15e 4270455660 EDITORS Ross Stitt Brooke Stower 4 55 66 52
16e 1676962650 WEWONYA Hilary Dew Jeff Kehoe (late alt) 8 55 60 49
17e 7276030181 DARK IMAGE Sean Hendry SCRATCHED 17 55 57 47.5
18e 47x2262818 ZIOPTIMUS Allan Kehoe SCRATCHED 13 55 55 46.5

#1 Ashman thrashed 6 of his rivals last start and I don't think the weight advantage is enough - but as they say weight can stop a train.

But I'll take a risk that won't happen put a line through 2, 3, 5, 8, 11 and 12.

6, 8 and 10 met last start and there wasn't a split hair between #6 Exclusive and #10 Midweek Hussler - an old favourite of mine (backed him 2nd career start when he won at $41 and also backed him when he won at double digit odds another time).

8 is already ruled out and 6 meets 10 a half better for a narrow margin "victory". 10 is also carrying 1.5 kg more than he should via the BM system and the 55 limit. Both horses go well over the distance.

So we have 1, 6 and 8 with 9, 13, 14 15 and 16 to consider.

9 is first start for Matt Dunn (was with BJ Smith) and won first up last time beating the handy horse Ditmas. Obvious chance but bad draw. Will have to go back.

13 has won his last two. Has a good strike rate and wins every third start over the distance. Drawn poorly.

14 can run a race but hasn't won since 2018, but has drawn 1 marble. Place chance.

Forget 15's last start in the feature race in Scone when drawn off the track. Goes OK in open class and drawn to get a nice run.

The old bloke 16 bobs occasionally but willing to risk.

9 down to 16 are at a disadvantage in the weights with the 55 kg limit.

Conclusion:

1, 6, 10 and 15 the main chances.

Place chances given to 9, 13 and 14.



Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-May-31, 06:32 AM Reply #1161 »
Got a very nice quinella in that race Beef Week Cup and wasn't far off the tri  :no:


Goes around tomorrow.
Looks like a bizarre decision with the 64kg and dropping back to 1200m

Iíve got 2 other black book runners in the race so I hope sanity prevails and they scratch  him

Yes in Race 6 #1 Shamusu Sho will carry 62 kg and drops back from 1500m to 1200m so it creates a lot of doubt. Good horses overcome these things so I guess we'll know if he is any good. $4 at the moment - might get out to a backable price.

Some of the main dangers have drawn awful barriers. I thought #6 Nine Not Out might be worth an each way bet at the $16. Will get back anyway because he is probably one of the worst barrier horses running around but must be running some good late sectionals finishing faster than everything else.

And there is an 8yo mare who will be fitter 3rd run back who has won the most prizemoney in the race.  She has won 7 races and I reckon I have been on her for 4 of them. She seems to know when she is a big price and lifts her effort - currently listed at $41. I won't mention her by name because it is bad luck to do so and that would be unfair to the owners  :x:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-31, 09:48 AM Reply #1162 »
I wonder if that owner is out of bed yet😁
9 not out is one of my black books along with split.

I'll box them up

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-May-31, 11:18 AM Reply #1163 »
Might do the same mate.

I would have declared Crowned Empress in the first at Tamworth but it has drawn out in the Peel river. Will need to work a bit to get over.

At Mur'bah today I've backed Olivia Pickering in the Jockey's Challenge at $51. She hasn't ridden a winner in her last 50 rides so she is due. Has a reasonable book of mounts and I have her mount in the 6th blackbooked and she is on a $2.60 favourite.

Having two shillings each way on #10 and #14 in the 2nd race at Tamworth.

#5 in race 3 back to the 1400m worth a 1x3 style bet.

#10 is an omen bet in race 6. If there is a God should win.

Race 7 - Gunnedah Cup

..and what a great town.

Fave #9 drawn the pole will get a beautiful run. Will look the winner at some time.

#10 (again) - I think he is a little bit of overs at $41 - 1x3 saver.

Race 8 - Lightning Stakes (we had a discussion on all the Lightning Stakes around the country once)

#10!! Albert's No Pussy has been backed heavily. Three runs this time in on wet tracks. If it stays dry and he runs up to last campaign will go close.

Good luck to the Sunday Punters.




Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-May-31, 03:35 PM Reply #1164 »
I wonder if that owner is out of bed yet😁
9 not out is one of my black books along with split.

I'll box them up

That was such a weird choice of race for Shamusu Sho. No idea what that was about  :what:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-31, 04:35 PM Reply #1165 »
Thankfully I stayed away with that weight

Offline ratsack

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« 2020-May-31, 06:52 PM Reply #1166 »


And there is an 8yo mare who will be fitter 3rd run back who has won the most prizemoney in the race.  She has won 7 races and I reckon I have been on her for 4 of them. She seems to know when she is a big price and lifts her effort - currently listed at $41. I won't mention her by name because it is bad luck to do so and that would be unfair to the owners  :x:

thanks mate , she has been a pleasure to own
for the new comers to this site   :shrug:
we paid $1800 for the mare and she has won over $150k
we will sell her as a brood mare
if not i will keep her and feed
its been a great ride , people should try ownership
 :beer:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Jun-01, 12:11 PM Reply #1167 »
thanks mate , she has been a pleasure to own
for the new comers to this site   :shrug:
we paid $1800 for the mare and she has won over $150k
we will sell her as a brood mare
if not i will keep her and feed
its been a great ride , people should try ownership
 :beer:

Is she still going Rat? Or sounds like you are going to sell her soon?

Offline ratsack

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« 2020-Jun-01, 07:36 PM Reply #1168 »
Is she still going Rat? Or sounds like you are going to sell her soon?
after the last five runs .
she is gone mate , as i said she is for sale

been a great ride all the same

 :love:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Jun-01, 09:53 PM Reply #1169 »
after the last five runs .
she is gone mate , as i said she is for sale

been a great ride all the same

 :love:

Hope she finds a nice home  :x:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Jun-28, 12:33 AM Reply #1170 »
The 4 day Grafton Carnival kicks off tomorrow.

There are 3 feature races tomorrow and the "King Of The North" Matt Dunn has the favourite horse in all three.

Grafton Guineas Prelude

#1 Camp Rifle was sold for $12,000 at the recent on-line Godolphin dispersal sale and the owners have a big chance of getting a real bargain.

https://www.godolphin.com/horses/for-sale/australia/2020-inglis-june-online-sale

They would pick up two thirds of that if he were to win here and won a trial at Gosford where I didn't think he was extended

https://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2020Jun19&VenueCode=ODE2Nzc3&RaceNumber=2&MeetingCategory=Trial&VideoFileType=Last400m

$12 grand!!! WTF? Is that a typo?

It is hard to make a case for anything weighted on the limit so winner should come from the top 4.

John Carlton Cup

The equation is as simple as 2 + 2 here. Do you think #1 Snitz can carry 7 above the limit and win. Outside gate shouldn't be a worry as he will go across.

He ran past Jungle Edge and was giving it to Classique Legend (equal 3rd favourite for The Everest) last start. Subsequent winner Viridine was behind him. There is nothing that approaches that quality here.

$1.70 is what you'll get fixed.

Cup Prelude

Some of these have very poor win strike rates.

The toppie #1 Partnership has won 5 from 17 and is only 4 above the limit and has drawn OK. $8.50 each way really appeals.

Other Races

R4 #2 Eiger first up at the $5 each way

R5 #2 Divine Approach - better suited here in a country than the race last start or the one at Scone on Cup day.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jun-28, 09:42 AM Reply #1171 »
Divine Approach has popped up in my BB, PP
Well worth a bet. Up there

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Jun-28, 11:57 AM Reply #1172 »
Snitz is out!!

Damn. Thought I was getting overs at $1.75 and put it in a few parlays.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jun-28, 03:23 PM Reply #1173 »
Divine Approach has popped up in my BB, PP
Well worth a bet. Up there


🥳🥳

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Jun-28, 04:07 PM Reply #1174 »
I need Partnership in the last mate. Not sure what happens with the Snitz scratching and my 5 horse parlay but no luck in the other races.

Blowing like a gale. Out to $15 :( They've hammered the Dunn horse #2 - $3 into $2  :o



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