Betchoice reckon Slipper down to two chances
Monday, 23 February 2009
Betchoice analyst Mark Morrisey believes the AAMI Golden Slipper is down to two chances after last Saturday’s Arrowfield Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield.
“There was a shocking leader bias at Caulfield on Saturday,” Morrissey said.
“Be it either via the wind or the actual racing surface, the leaders had it all their way and Real Saga’s run was a massive effort.
“Full credit to Luke Nolen to get Reward for Effort up near the speed but the bias was at least worth three lengths and on a fair track , Real Saga wins comfortably.
“It’s plain to see that Real Saga probably only has to beat More Joyous in the Slipper, the Blue Diamond form will be pretty strong and I think Real Saga is the perfect Slipper horse.”
Real Saga currently sits as a $6 second favourite in Golden Slipper betting behind More Joyous at $5 but Morrisey believes that both runners represent value at their current quotes.
“I think that both should be quoted as $4 equal favourites,” Morrisey said.
“The only reason that they aren’t shorter with us is the fact that the barrier draws won’t be done for a few weeks and that may force us to make a change one way or another.
“But realistically, there is nothing else around that will be those two in Sydney, Reward for Effort will be around the mark, Horizons, Our Joan of Arc and Tickets will be around about the mark but More Joyous and Real Saga have the edge so far.”
Morrisey said that the betting action on the Golden Slipper had slowed down somewhat as punters concentrated on the Blue Diamond and other Melbourne features.
“It’s a bit slow at the moment,” Morrisey said.
“The punters will gradually come back to the Golden Slipper market as the lead-up races are run and we should see some of the bigger bets coming in March.”