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Sydney Racing Selections - N.S.W Gallops - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Sydney Racing Selections  (Read 291304 times)

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Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Mar-27, 06:46 PM Reply #1400 »
I did manage to get the trifecta in the Blue Diamond so decided "why not try the same horses again in the Slipper"?

A couple of huge runs from back in the field but check out Artorius zig-zaging all the way up the Rosehill straight on the steward's film.
Obviously a really good galloper who just had big problems adjusting to the  right-handed track

Offline timw

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« 2021-Mar-29, 04:02 PM Reply #1401 »
Melody Belle excels in Tauranga workout (loveracing.nz)

Melody Belle will depart for Sydney on Monday as she gets ready to tackle the Gr.1 Tancred Stakes (2400m) next Saturday at Rosehill where she will have the services of leading rider James McDonald.

Following her Tancred Stakes run she is pencilled in for starts in the Gr.1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) on 17 April at Randwick, before heading to Queensland to tackle the Gr.2 Hollindale Stakes (1800m) on 8 May at the Gold Coast, and the Gr.1 Doomben Cup (2000m) on 22 May at Doomben.

Offline Antitab#

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« 2021-Apr-03, 08:39 AM Reply #1402 »
Interesting horse today, The Frontman in the Tulloch  Stakes

Murray Baker three Year olds in Sydney Autumn has been very profitable over the last 15 years.

He must have an opinion of this one , itís only had 4 starts and raced in two Group 1ís.

Iíve made enough following horses with this pattern so Iím diving in.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Apr-03, 08:48 AM Reply #1403 »
Needs 2400?

Offline Antitab#

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« 2021-Apr-03, 09:30 AM Reply #1404 »
Maybe

I also had something pre post in the Derby

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-03, 10:50 AM Reply #1405 »
Interesting to see how The Frontman will go today on the firmer ground.
I backed him in the NZ Derby before I decided to give NZ racing the flick.....watch only!
The Makfi breed generally like the softer ground but you would be a fool to doubt Murray Baker.

I had a few $'s on Rondino.....looks to have some staying ability although doesn't like going straight. :shrug:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Apr-03, 11:57 AM Reply #1406 »
Canít panic yet but the fence may be the spot to be today

Brings  a bolter like Prompt Prodigy into the Tulloch🤔

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-03, 01:07 PM Reply #1407 »
How disappointing yet again to see a major Australian race-day serve up a biased track like Rosehill today.

All the form "study" amounts to nothing much and now watch the expected leaders prices tumble.

Glad I'm not fully committed anymore.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Apr-03, 03:05 PM Reply #1408 »
Nem, canít totally disagree with your sentiment  but the rail being out was bit of a clue and Rosehill usually plays that way

Offline westie

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« 2021-Apr-03, 03:53 PM Reply #1409 »
Oh Dear, my BB's for R7: and only backed Spirit Ridge ran 5th- Tri $1,676.40 F4 $13,667.50  :(

1. Sir Dragonet (IRL) (1)
R7 Rosehill 2400m 16:35pm
J: G Boss
T: C Maher & D Eustace
$4.8
Caulfield Jumpouts 19/01/21; [9 of 15] 13/03/21
6. Spirit Ridge (GBR) (6)
R7 Rosehill 2400m 16:35pm
J: R Dolan
T: M Newnham
$10
Rosehill Trials 11/02/21; [2 of 8] 13/03/21; BB 15/03/21
12. She's Ideel (10)
R7 Rosehill 2400m 16:35pm
J: J Collett
T: B Baker
$14
BB 14/09/20; [6 of 14] 26/09/20; Rosehill Trials 28/09/20; [1 of 11] 10/10/20; [3 of 10] 17/10/20; BB 19/10/20; [2 of 13] 31/10/20; [5 of 13] 07/11/20; BB 08/03/21; BB 29/03/21
13. Toffee Tongue (NZL) (2)
R7 Rosehill 2400m 16:35pm
J: T Marquand
T: C Waller
$11
Rosehill Trials 30/01/20; [6 of 10] 19/02/20; [2 of 9] 04/03/20; [2 of 9] 18/03/20; [2 of 16] 04/04/20; [2 of 14] 11/04/20; Rosehill Trials 03/08/20 - maybe The Metropolitan or Caulfield Cup; Rosehill Trials 18/08/20, Caulfield / Melbourne Cups; [5 of 12] 29/08/20; [8 of 14] 12/09/20; [14 of 18] 17/10/20; [3 of 13] 07/11/20; [8 of 9] 27/02/21; [1 of 8] 13/03/21
14. Miami Bound (NZL) (13)
R7 Rosehill 2400m 16:35pm
J: R King
T: D O'Brien
$35
BB 08/03/21

Offline Antitab#

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« 2021-Apr-03, 05:04 PM Reply #1410 »
Without sounding like Pete that track was dreadful in Sydney.

5 winners came from barrier 1 and three other leaders. Only Hungry Heart defied the bias.

I ended up having a good day  because I adapted and played the pattern but people who bet early set fire to their cash.

Itís not good enough for Group 1 Racing.

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-03, 06:37 PM Reply #1411 »
I think there is a good lesson for many punters today.

While today is an extreme example but it does show how fraught with danger punting is, without absolutely knowing what the conditions are going to be on the day
You can put hours and hours of work to be just set right back on your heels after watching the first race.......knowing that your early bets have just become donations.
I'm glad I gave the "form study" away a while ago......imagine replaying some of the comments from the Friday experts now!  :lol:   :lol:

I didn't plan to bet at Caulfield today but I did when I saw the back-markers getting home out wide......how good was that.....a rare occurrence.  emthup

Offline fours

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« 2021-Apr-03, 06:53 PM Reply #1412 »
nemisis,

Or you could simply allow for variance in such things and take advanatge when others are whinging..

Fours

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-03, 07:07 PM Reply #1413 »
I wish it was that simple fours.
I thought Entente from the inside looked a bit of a 'good thing'.....looked a comfortable leader.

The betting was suggesting something otherwise.
Then I heard Ron Dufficy say that the Waller man was sending his $100 shot Mr Satchmo forward......why would he do that?  :lol:   :lol:
Didn't have the speed and it wasn't even necessary.


Offline Gintara

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« 2021-Apr-03, 07:30 PM Reply #1414 »
Without sounding like Pete that track was dreadful in Sydney.

5 winners came from barrier 1 and three other leaders. Only Hungry Heart defied the bias.

I ended up having a good day  because I adapted and played the pattern but people who bet early set fire to their cash.

Itís not good enough for Group 1 Racing.

As someone who had a family function and bet early I've had a terrible day, it's rare for me to have to play that way but the moons aligned for me to have a shocker.

Hungry Heart was enormous to over come that dross that was served up. There will be some forgive / form reversals coming up that's for sure.  :dry:

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-04, 12:05 PM Reply #1415 »
Sydney race 2 looks as dodgy as......far too easy to get a tick of approval by the stewards.

C Waller notifies stewards about a different riding tactics aboard Mr Satchmo......going forward......fair enough.
So the horse is sent forward, but when the jock finds the horse he was supposed to pester is not the leader most people expected (Entente), but the stablemate Shared Ambition nearly breaks the jaw of Mr Satchmo trying to restrain him.

Right horse won, I'd say.......not quite according to the plan.
After beaten margins of 67 and 15 lengths, yesterday's 10 length defeat by Mr Satchmo was an improvement is about all you can say.
Hardly a great advertisement for OTI racing letting their horse be used this way emthdown
« Last Edit: 2021-Apr-04, 12:33 PM by nemisis »

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-09, 04:56 PM Reply #1416 »
Anyone have some thoughts re the Derby tomorrow?
I had a look and find for every tick I've give a horse I can find a couple of crosses.

I just can't see a Jon Snow or Gingernuts in the visiting Kiwis.

I like Favreau.....bit disappointing last week but raced handy and didn't quite settle as he normally does.
Tavistock is a good tick but his dam was good around the mile.......I can still see a good finish from him if it's a true staying test.

I don't mind Jakkalberry as a sire so I'll have something on Explosive Jack as well as the other Tavistock, Young Werther
Like Favreau.....dam's breeding not really on staying lines.
They all should like that surface tomorrow......soft 6 ????.....just needs to be even and fair.

Offline fours

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« 2021-Apr-09, 05:08 PM Reply #1417 »
Hmmm,

If it is soft then rove the Tavistocks....

Fours

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Apr-09, 07:28 PM Reply #1418 »
Favreau Was terribly disappointing last week even though he was rupidden close.

Prompt Prodigy was better

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-09, 09:22 PM Reply #1419 »
I think with the possible exception of Sky Lab, there is a question mark on the whole field.
Interesting race for mine......really will depend on the tempo.....you still like to see staying bloodlines at 2400m on a soft track.

You have to be forgiving of Favreau......last week was a sprint home on that biased track and it's the first time ever he wasn't really getting home.
I know he got a couple of kgs of Prompt Prodigy at Canberra but he went past him like he was a different class.

Puzzling to me why Aquis would sell Favreau a few weeks before the Derby and hoof filler is a bit of a worry but if he is 100%, I'm sure he will run really well.....was glad to hear the trainer say they will drop him out the back.
I'm not tying myself down to 1 runner but I did use my boost on him today.

Offline Gintara

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« 2021-Apr-10, 09:17 AM Reply #1420 »
With such an even bunch I think luck will play a part.

I settled on Lion's Roar, missed a gap at a crucial stage in the straight and lost all momentum, would have finished much closer. Young Werther is somewhat forgotten but it looks a single race focus and blinkers go on so worth saving on.

I couldn't back the filly at that price although I concede she has a chance and may make a mug of us.

Offline Antitab#

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« 2021-Apr-10, 05:19 PM Reply #1421 »
God bless Jamie Kah.

I found the great game very young and have been betting for 35 years .

I was on Cascadian today and having just perused a list of Doncaster winners Iím 99.999% sure itís my first ever winner in the race.

Persistence pays off.

Offline Gintara

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« 2021-Apr-10, 05:43 PM Reply #1422 »
With such an even bunch I think luck will play a part.

I settled on Lion's Roar, missed a gap at a crucial stage in the straight and lost all momentum, would have finished much closer. Young Werther is somewhat forgotten but it looks a single race focus and blinkers go on so worth saving on.

I couldn't back the filly at that price although I concede she has a chance and may make a mug of us.

and of course I backed Explosive Jack in Tassie, also last start at Bendigo yet though it was a rung below today. It made a mug of me today.   :shy: :jacko:

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-10, 06:15 PM Reply #1423 »
Anyone have some thoughts re the Derby tomorrow?
I had a look and find for every tick I've give a horse I can find a couple of crosses.

I just can't see a Jon Snow or Gingernuts in the visiting Kiwis.

I like Favreau.....bit disappointing last week but raced handy and didn't quite settle as he normally does.
Tavistock is a good tick but his dam was good around the mile.......I can still see a good finish from him if it's a true staying test.

I don't mind Jakkalberry as a sire so I'll have something on Explosive Jack as well as the other Tavistock, Young Werther
Like Favreau.....dam's breeding not really on staying lines.
They all should like that surface tomorrow......soft 6 ????.....just needs to be even and fair.
While the race was an excellent result for me, it was hard to work out just who T Berry thought he was riding today.....Phar Lap?????

Took off 800 metres from home and completely used all of Favreau's gas before the turn.
I"d be really peed off with the ride if I owned him......extremely rare to see a horse win with a ride like that.
Excellent run by the horse all the same......looked an absolute  million dollars .....well done to all concerned... emthup

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Apr-10, 07:16 PM Reply #1424 »
and of course I backed Explosive Jack in Tassie, also last start at Bendigo yet though it was a rung below today. It made a mug of me today.   :shy: :jacko:


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