The Championships - 2017 - N.S.W Gallops - Racehorse TALK harm-plan harm-plan

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The Championships - 2017 - N.S.W Gallops - Racehorse TALK

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Offline nemisis

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« 2017-Mar-18, 10:53 PM Reply #25 »
Can end up looking a bit silly predicting race results 6 weeks out, but why not?

If the first 2 horses from the Avondale Guineas, namely Gingernuts and Charles Road come for the Australian Derby......watch out.

I'm certain they can beat anything that raced in the Victorian Derby.
Good 4 track or anything worse is fine.

Charles Road reminded me of Ocean Park, don't know why.
Hope the connections strongly consider bringing Charles Road here for the Derby after the run of Gingernuts today.

Not much between the two horses in my humble.
Taken the $51.00 available in the all in but I have no idea if he is coming.


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2017-Mar-18, 11:20 PM Reply #26 »
Year after year I ignore the NZ 3yo form in Sydney in the Autumn and it costs me.

Jimmy Choux, It's A Dundeel, Volkstok'N'Barrell and now Gingernuts have  won the Rosehill Guineas since 2011.

3 of the last 4 Derbies have been won by NZders.

And it is not as if this is a recent phenomenon.

They should bring Charles Road because he would have a big chance of winning it.

Offline nemisis

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« 2017-Mar-19, 04:01 AM Reply #27 »
 PP7 Ocean Park's 2012 Rosehill Guineas run was just extraordinary.

I locked myself onto him after that for a very profitable spring.

I even gave my youngest daughter $50 and told her to put it on him, on Cox Plate day.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2017-Mar-25, 02:00 PM Reply #28 »
The 3yo staying events will be dominated by NZ'ders.

Jon Snow is not committed to the race but he has just won with his ears pricked - literally - have a look on the replays!

This horse is no bastard.


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2017-Mar-26, 09:20 AM Reply #29 »
Last chance to get into the Country Championship final today.

This race was scheduled to run at Muswellbrook, but has been transferred to Scone.

SCNE - Sunday, 26 March 2017

Rail: +3m Entire Course. Weather: Overcast Track: Soft 7 Finalised 26/3 - 7:45am


Race 7 4:45pm   COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIPS WILD CARD 1300m

Of $50,000.00. 1st $27,750, 2nd $10,000, 3rd $5,000, 4th $2,375, 5th $1,250, 6th $625, 7th $625, 8th $625, 9th $625, 10th $625.
Class 5 Set Weights. Apprentices Cannot Claim. LW: SW



No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight(kg) Penalty(kg) Benchmark
1 192136x055 MAPMAKER Craig Martin Peter Graham 2 59
71
2 5480x21594 AFTER ALL THAT Rodney Northam Robert Thompson 14 57.5
70
3 1x1x1x10 ART DíAMOUR Cody Morgan Ben Looker 6 57.5
70
4 4166x12001 COMING IN HOT Justin W Stanley Chad Lever 9 57.5
63
5 23x4368x13 EVER SO NATURAL Cliff Bashford Glyn Schofield 15 57.5
79
6 726x211x76 SASSABY Greg Bennett Ms Rachael Murray 12 57.5
66
7 x8129x04x0 STRICTLY CONCERT Mark Mason Luke Cumberland 13 57.5
73
8 312214x023 ALL SUMMER LONG Greg Bennett Mitchell Bell 10 56
75
9 5x3111x23 PELERIN Cody Morgan 18 56
62
10 9341260x54 ALLITERATE Pat Farrell Greg Ryan 16 55.5
71
11 191x936254 ART íNí OLLIE Dean Mirfin Anthony Cavallo 17 55.5
65
12 045x80x149 INVIENNA Greg Bennett Ms Rachel King (a) 7 55.5
76
13 58x423x113 JAR OF HEARTS Cameron Crockett Jeff Penza 8 54
66
14 1xD2x117 SOUTHERN FLIGHT Garry McCarney Andrew Banks 1 54
65
15e x076x271x9 CONTRALTO SCRATCHED
5 54
61
16e x332137211 MOQWAO (NZ) SCRATCHED
3 56
60
17e 4422x11664 VALBEATA SCRATCHED
4 54
59
18e 3102147342 TRY íNí RUN A MUCK SCRATCHED 11 56
56

Offline Talesse Adolfson

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« 2017-Mar-28, 07:04 PM Reply #30 »
I'm looking at Le Romain in the Doncaster and Gingernuts in the Derby. Haven't decided on the other 2 G1's of the day, I def got Winx in the Queen Elizabeth on day 2, even if her odds are so short theres no point really betting, but hey she like bank interest,

Offline tontonan

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« 2017-Mar-28, 07:47 PM Reply #31 »
SYDNEY

Forecast for the rest of Tuesday

Summary
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Wednesday 29 March

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day, reaching 35 km/h near the coast.

Fire Danger - Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 10:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Thursday 30 March

Summary
Min 23
Max 25
Rain, possibly heavy.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 40 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening, possibly heavy. The chance of a thunderstorm around the middle of the day. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h ahead of a cool and gusty southerly change 30 to 40 km/h in the morning, reaching 55 km/h near the coast.

Sun protection recommended from 10:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Friday 31 March

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Possible shower. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds south to southwesterly 30 to 40 km/h, reaching 55 km/h near the coast at first, decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Saturday 1 April

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeast to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.



Sydney sure isn't my patch but I figure Thursday punts whatever chance there was of a drying track.   I would think we have to work on the assumption of a heavy track.

Thoughts ?

Offline Gintara

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« 2017-Mar-28, 08:53 PM Reply #32 »
If it materialises like they predict then it's bound to be Tonto.

Everything is only just starting to dry out now, any rain at all, let along 2 inches will be bad.

Offline tontonan

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« 2017-Mar-29, 05:09 PM Reply #33 »
It is hard to find much discussion about the meeting.   There is virtually nothing on here.  It is very disturbing.  For a sport that is based on prediction nobody seems to want to put one out there. 

The weather bureau has put it's prediction out there upgrading the chance of rain to 95% and the volume to up to 50mm.  That's back to Heavy.

It is hard to imagine what could get past the Kiwi's on such a track though I will be cheering for Prized Icon.  No Champagne Stakes winner has won the Autumn Derby since Rose of Kingston in 1981 while the only Victoria Derby winners to win the Randwick Derby since 1979 are Dulcify and Mahogany.  But he'd have a much better chance on a better track.

Bonecrusher and Mongolian Khan are the only New Zealand Derby winners to prevail at Randwick.  Gingernuts looks likely to add his name to that list.

The Rosehill Guineas remains the most reliable guide to the Randwick Derby : Criterion, Dundeel (NZ), Eremein, Sky Heights, Octagonal, Innocent King, Naturalism, Strawberry Road, Kingston Town and Dulcify have won the double.... I think I have them all.   And Gingernuts again...

Naturalism and Durbridge are the only Alister Clark winners to come to Sydney and win the Derby.  I don't know Hardham is in that class nor whether he handles the swampy conditions.




Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2017-Mar-29, 08:54 PM Reply #34 »
Rain on Doncaster Day.

Who'd have thought   :lol:

Offline tontonan

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« 2017-Mar-29, 09:17 PM Reply #35 »
Not bothered by the lack of comment ?

I find it off putting.  As this is one of the few times of the year that I pay any attention to what happens in Sydney (mainly because it is one of the few times of the year that it is on my telly) I tend to depend on the chat to bring me up to speed ... but there isn't any. 


Offline Gintara

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« 2017-Mar-30, 12:33 PM Reply #36 »
Tonto it's been that wet for last few weeks it's very hard to get excited / confident over much. Races have been run in near bottomless conditions which really makes the form a bit iffy. I think everyone's just a bit 'bleh' with the weather.




Offline nemisis

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« 2017-Mar-30, 12:39 PM Reply #37 »
Tonto the track had got into the slow range but today we are having another rain event.

Not sure how long it will hang around.

Offline specialweek2

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« 2017-Mar-30, 12:50 PM Reply #38 »
Since the Championships started it has always been wet. Plus no foreign raiders which I like to see.

Offline tontonan

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« 2017-Mar-30, 03:44 PM Reply #39 »
24mm has fallen at the airport today.  That is an inch in the old money on an already Slow track with more to come and showers through Friday... bleh indeed.









Online wily ole dog

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« 2017-Mar-30, 05:58 PM Reply #40 »
Not bothered by the lack of comment ?

I find it off putting.  As this is one of the few times of the year that I pay any attention to what happens in Sydney (mainly because it is one of the few times of the year that it is on my telly) I tend to depend on the chat to bring me up to speed ... but there isn't any.


Not many people here mate but the main issue for he is not knowing the track condition. I think I heard right and it was only a 5 this morning. More likely a 10 and that makes it hard to form an option

Online wily ole dog

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« 2017-Mar-30, 05:59 PM Reply #41 »
Tonto it's been that wet for last few weeks it's very hard to get excited / confident over much. Races have been run in near bottomless conditions which really makes the form a bit iffy. I think everyone's just a bit 'bleh' with the weather.

Yes, what gin said.

The perils of posting before reading everything  :lol:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2017-Apr-01, 11:38 AM Reply #42 »
NSW TAB is running a promo for NSW residents where you get Cash Back up to $55 on the four G1s + the Country Championship final today if you run 2nd or 3rd.

As well, there is cash back on your trifectas in Races 1-3 if you get two placings.

(Not sure about Vic TAB but they probably have the same for Vic residents?)

Under those conditions I've got:

Country Championship Final: Pumpkin Pie (saved on Free Standing - best of luck to the Rode team   :biggrin:  )
Sires: Tulip
Derby: Jon Snow
TJ Smith: Chautauqua (had a little on Terravista elsewhere)
Doncaster: Le Romain

Good luck with your bets in the big races today.   emthup

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2017-Apr-01, 01:13 PM Reply #43 »
NSW TAB is running a promo for NSW residents where you get Cash Back up to $55 on the four G1s + the Country Championship final today if you run 2nd or 3rd.

As well, there is cash back on your trifectas in Races 1-3 if you get two placings.

(Not sure about Vic TAB but they probably have the same for Vic residents?)

Under those conditions I've got:

Country Championship Final: Pumpkin Pie (saved on Free Standing - best of luck to the Rode team )
Sires: Tulip
Derby: Jon Snow
TJ Smith: Chautauqua (had a little on Terravista elsewhere)
Doncaster: Le Romain

Good luck with your bets in the big races today.   emthup
Great result in the final.

They picked that horse up in Victoria I think.

Sent from my SM-G920I using Racehorse Talk mobile app


Offline Gintara

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« 2017-Apr-01, 02:09 PM Reply #44 »
I'll have a dig

Sires: Frolic
Derby: Prized Icon
TJ Smith: Astern
Doncaster: Le Romain

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2017-Apr-01, 07:22 PM Reply #45 »


What an incredible disgrace

................... talk about horseships!

One can only wonder what will be said by racing administrators to explain a disaster-day for TAB punters.

Just look at the list of incredible F4 and quadrella dividends  -- none of which went to the little guys that fill the pool.

........ what else do administrators expect to happen when overcrowded fields race on heavy tracks?

This is akin to putting poison in packets of cornflakes -- it is deliberate unfairness.



Offline tontonan

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« 2017-Apr-01, 07:27 PM Reply #46 »

Offline Gintara

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« 2017-Apr-01, 08:03 PM Reply #47 »

What an incredible disgrace

................... talk about horseships!

One can only wonder what will be said by racing administrators to explain a disaster-day for TAB punters.

Just look at the list of incredible F4 and quadrella dividends  -- none of which went to the little guys that fill the pool.

........ what else do administrators expect to happen when overcrowded fields race on heavy tracks?

This is akin to putting poison in packets of cornflakes -- it is deliberate unfairness.

Well I'm stuffed to know what you truly want Peter.

You've had 4 group 1s with basically the best sprinters, 3yr old stayers, milers & 2 year olds in country going around but you're still bitching about results.

 :thumbsd:


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2017-Apr-02, 08:19 AM Reply #48 »


I would be surprised if it is just me concerned about a sequence of rough results on a major race day.

The beholden media say nothing of consequence to explain what happened -- or what should happen to ensure races are run fairly.

For starters field sizes should be limited to 10 and competitive entry criteria should ensure only the 'best ten' start.

.........yesterday was a disgrace .........and the dividends tell the story.

Offline mortdale

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« 2017-Apr-02, 12:43 PM Reply #49 »
Peter Mair, you are on your old chestnut about field sizes again. I totally agree. I want match races from here on in, that's right 2 horse fields and if the result doesn't end as it should be according to Mair and Monty they will have to declared a no race.

Will you be happy then?

Peter, wake up and realise that the form in Sydney leading into yesterday has been mixed mainly due to bottomless tracks at Rosehill on the previous two Saturdays.

Also remember that trainers set their horses to peak for certain races. That's why people take the time to watch replays and do their form in depth and not just listen or read what urging journalists have to say. They actually do okay at the punting caper.

Not all horses can peak start after start. Let's look at Bart's Melbourne Cup winners. He would plan to have them right on the day. They might look average in some lead up events but he was setting them for the Cup. He wasn't pulling them up in their lead up races and the true form students that knew that Bart's horses were being set for one particular race would then access if they had in fact done enough in their lead up races.

Bart didn't get it wrong too often did he Peter?

The one thing that I do see that could be improved is some jockeys don't seem to have plan B or plan C when the pace of race doesn't pan out as everyone thought it would.

The Chairman's Hcp yesterday over 2600mts was a crawl for the first 1900mts and when you see Zac Purton on Kinema back last and completely pulling it's head off you do ask why on hell don't you slide around and sit outside the leader where the horse will be happy.

Peter, the other area you don't seem to give enough thought to is horses that are over the odds. If you take the time you will find horses that you will access that are well over the odds.

Example yesterday was the winner of the Inglis Sires at Randwick. Invader missed the Slipper that was run on a complete bog and went into the race yesterday with fresh legs. I accessed him at $4.00 and got $8.50 about what I rated the best bet of the day.

Peter, at the end of the day it's horse racing, it will throw up the odd surprise result, it will have horses improve dramatically as they can't tell us that they felt off the start before.

Peter, have you ever had a massive win?

If so why didn't you hand it back as by all your posts there must have been some type of rort involved. Or was it just you and Monty that were in the know so that made it okay?

 :mad:
« Last Edit: 2017-Apr-02, 11:09 PM by mortdale »


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