These are the races next Saturday
The Championships Day 2
Saturday 8 April 2017, Royal RandwickLongines Queen Elizabeth Stakes (GR1)
$4,000,000 2000m. SWFA. 3YO & Upwards.
Schweppes Sydney Cup (GR1)
$2,000,000 3200m. Open Hcp. 3YO & Upwards.
Australian Oaks (GR1)
$1,000,000 2400m. Set weights. 3YO Fillies.
The Coolmore Legacy Stakes (GR1)
$1,000,000 1600m. SWFA. 3YO & Upwards F&M.
Arrowfield 3YO Sprint (GR2)
$600,000 1200m. Set weights. 3YO.
IG Markets Percy Sykes Stakes (GR2)
$600,000 1200m. Set weights + pen. 2YO Fillies.
The Provincial Championships Final $400,000 1400m. Restricted to NSW Provincial Qualifiers.
Sapphire Stakes (GR2) $300,000 1200m. Set weights + pen. 3YO & Upwards. F&M.
McGrath Estate Agents South Pacific Classic (LR) $150,000 1400m. Quality Hcp. 3YO.
TFE Fernhill Handicap (LR) $150,000 1600m. Quality Hcp. 2YO.
Not much point discussing the QE2. Most interesting thing is that "the mare" is still at $1.15, the price she was before she gutted Le Romain and Chautauqua in the Ryder. I want to buy a new car for my wife around the $30k mark. 15% of what = $30k Sydney Cup
The Sydney Cup has the "staying find of the year" Big Duke at $2.80 ahead of Lloyd's Assign at $6.00 (he would be happy with the fact there is zero chance of a hard track).
Next in the betting is the "unexposed to Australian form" Penglai Pavillion, which Wikipedia tells me is one of the four great towers of Chinahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penglai_Pavilion
He is a lightly raced 7yo with 8 wins and 3 placings from 22 starts.
Two starts ago he beat The Cashel Man and Shrewd over 3600m at Newmarket in a 105 race.
Shrewd ran 2nd to Heartbreak City in the 2016 Ebor (2816m at York in August).
Heartbreak City ran 2nd to Almandin in the Melbourne Cup.
Going through the weights and measures, Heartbreak City actually rated 2.5 kg above Almandin in the Cup due to weight.
Heartbreak City, in his win over Shrewd in the Ebor, rated 4 kg more.
In the 105 race, Penglai Pavillion rated 6.5 kg ahead of Shrewd.
So therefore Penglai Pavillion is 1.5 kg ahead of Heartbreak City, and thus 4 kg ahead of the Melbourne Cup winner Almandin.
Anyway, it kinda suggests that if he acclimatizes then he is a big chance here, especially if he gets a run with 50.5 kg. In fact at that weight, and given the ratings, you would probably be inclined to take the $8.00. Researching this a bit further, I found the following quotes in aHeral news item posted 6 hours ago:Appleby's travelling foreman James Ferguson is confident Polarisation will be right to take his place in the Sydney Cup, despite being scratched from the Chairman's on Saturday, but leans towards Penglai Pavilion.
"Polarisation had a slight knock to a hock and the plan was always to come here for the Sydney Cup, so we decided to keep him for that," Ferguson said.
"It has been a long-time plan and we would hate to go away without anything from Saturday.
"They have both been working really well but if I was forced to have a pick I would take Penglai Pavilion."
The pair are likely to race handy to the lead in the Sydney Cup with Kerrin McEvoy, who had a lot of success riding for Appleby in the Melbourne spring, booked for Penglai Pavilion, while Corey Brown will ride Polarisation.
Penglai Pavilion has a touch of class running in the Arc de Triomphe as a younger horse and after a season of jumping he returned to flat and won at Newmarket over 3600 metres last year.
"That win was really very strong, so two miles on testing ground won't be a worry," Ferguson said.http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/both-sides-of-the-godolphin-world-chase-sydney-cup-20170402-gvbyuy.html
I'm wondering if the $8 is factoring in the risk he won't get a start?
Anyway, I'm off to load up at the $8 or better if I can find it - will look at the other races later. PENGLAI PAVILION (USA)