Nadia on fire....could yet tip the card. I know a lot have been the fave's but still you gotta tip 'em.

Adelaide quaddy market preview for Saturday. Bit of a marathon with the big fields but good racing. Just hope the Parks plays fair and it doesn't become a sideshow of who can get to the outside rail. 1st and last race on the main track with the rail out. Probably find a winner if you can pick the best of the on pacers in the first with first use of the new ground.

AR5 - 1st leg

Race: 1300m BM 82, 3yo+      
Pace: Solid to Fast      
Rail: True

1      13.00      7.69      Good winning strike+, Loves the sting out+, Improver 2nd up who maps to get a nice run. Form around Karlovasi & Cavaloce.
2      101.00      0.99      Ok record around this trip and fresh but fancy he's a rough place chance only.
3      101.00      0.99      Cast off- who's drawn horribly-. Showed talent and trialled ok, but wait to see once in tough race.
4      7.00      14.29      Brings some solid form with Oliver on from gate 1+, Ok 1 heavy run but more of a fast track pedigree. Gets nice run and weight drop, respecting.
5      34.00      2.94      Very good fresh+ but this is a big ask-. 8yo-. Ok strike rate and record this track. Edge of his distance range here-.
6      5.00      20.00      Great record this track+ Though will have to work slightly from the gate- Big jockey improvement+ A bit dull last week but must respect.
7      81.00      1.23      Never discount this stable but should be running on looking for longer. Wide gate and Parks' pattern makes it even tougher. Maybe comes in slightly under the radar off Alice prep.
8      34.00      2.94      Talented mare coming back from bleeding attack. Would have to wait and see with her. Did beat Hazy Lane first up similar race last time in.
9      5.00      20.00      Struck some serious form last time in and was a touch unlucky first up. Needs a bit of luck from the draw but looks to be enough speed to set him up.
10      26.00      3.85      Nice return and generally ok 2nd up. Super honest often just half a class below and wide gate makes it very tough.
11      34.00      2.94      33% win hitter but yet to really feature in metro grade. Drawn nicely and respecting, but more as a rough place chance.
12      7.00      14.29      25% win hitter who's gone to another level lately+ Tougher again here but should run well again with Holder on+ Loves any sting out, should get at least soft 5 here+, Good fresh+
13      13.00      7.69      Top young trainer brings this gelding with some nice form lines from the tough Vic provincial circuit. Tougher but respecting. Wide gate does hurt-
14      26.00      3.85      Fully fit now and respect this trainer, especially when Jamie Kah jumps on++ Seems to prefer longer these days but ok record this track and trip. Drawn nicely with enough speed on.
15      67.00      1.49      Can bob up, at his best would be in the finish here. Crafty trainer would have him peaking. Others seem to have him covered though.
16      51.00      1.96      Progressive type who worked through the grades nicely before a long break. Likely to find a few of these too sharp first up this class.
17      34.00      2.94      Very consistent Hussonet gelding. Up in class but should run well again from nice draw.
18      151.00      0.66      8yo well up in class, couldn't have him here despite racing consistently.
19      101.00      0.99      Will also likely find this class a bit hot, especially drawn out.

Market 112% with emergencies to come out

Backing Brown Ben, better than these if returns to last prep form. Small spec bet Our Exchange who also goes into multiples.

--

AR6 - 2nd leg

Race: 1400m Open Quality, Listed City Of Adelaide Stakes      
Pace: Solid to Fast      
Rail: True

Horse      Odds      Percent      Notes
                  
1      7.00      14.29      Drawn ok today and looks well placed down in grade on recent efforts. Respecting Weir/Lane combination.
2      34.00      2.94      Win machine who will be better suited over further with more fitness. Could run into a place.
3      13.00      7.69      Old marvel who killed many quaddies last time out.. (mine) On the edge of his distance range and only won once here but can't discount.
4      9.00      11.11      Changes back to original stable here after good Caulfield run. Brings some big time form lines and must be considered.
5      201.00      0.50      Five time winner of $424k but not going well enough. Ok fresh record but would really surprise.
6      5.00      20.00      Super honest gelding who's been racing in career best form. Looks very well placed with 54.5kg and barrier 4.
7      7.00      14.29      Very honest mare racing well without winning. Sure to run well again.
8      34.00      2.94      Adaptable local mare who's progressing well but not sure she quite measures up in class against some of these. Place chance only for mine.
9      21.00      4.76      Talented mare in good yard who's better suited out to 1400m. Bit tough from the gate this class but look for her running on late if they go hard.
10      13.00      7.69      Lethal combination of Clarken and Kah attracts notice here. Kept on the fresh side, might be the one storming down the outside rail. Keep safe and watch any market moves.
11      21.00      4.76      Honest gelding who loves it here. Up in class but sure to be well prepared by astute country trainer.
12      16.00      6.25      Progressive Fastnet Rock mare from top stable who's tactical speed should be an asset here. Maybe a run away from fully wound up but defititely one to consider.
13      34.00      2.94      Improving 4yo Bernardini mare from good provincial stable. Form to 1400m is very solid. Can run a race at odds.
14      201.00      0.50      Ok record this track but would surprise in this class.
   
Market 101%

Pretty much agree with the market here, no bet race for mine on current figures. Watching Evangelist, might be worth a small spec bet if gets out a little.

--

AR7 - 3rd leg

Race: 1400m sw 3yo Listed Nitschke Stakes      
Pace: Moderate to solid      
Rail: True position

Horse      Odds      Percent      Notes
                  
1      6.00      16.67      Very nice 3yo gelding who looks better suited out to 1400m. Be wary of Kah bringing him down the outside fence if the pattern emerges as we've seen previously. Major player here.
2      34.00      2.94      This looks like his best trip and won well here against easier in Feb. Bit harder here but has outside claims.
3      26.00      3.85      Talented gelding but will get back here 2nd up which is tough. A rough hope at odds.
4      51.00      1.96      Going through the grades nicely but huge jump in class here, even with Oliver going on. Not for me.
5      21.00      4.76      Better suited back to 1400m after failing over further. Won well first up and from top stable. Improver.
6      9.00      11.11      Classy filly with good record this track, though been a bit inconsistent lately. Expect her to get a nice run and give a big kick.
7      9.00      11.11      Nicely bred filly with honest form of late, including 2nd to Kenedna in The Vanity. Drawn wide and comes in fresh so may be vulnerable here. Definite contender at her best.
8      51.00      1.96      Been a great money spinner but suspect a few of these have her covered class wise. Good record this track so not totally writing off.
9      11.00      9.09      Will jump from the nice gate and race on the pace, which doesn't appear too hot here. Probably takes a nice trail on the back of Zunbaqa. Chance.
10      7.00      14.29      Superbly bred filly who ran on to share the prize last time and meets that filly slightly better at the weights. Hayes / Holder combo is becoming formidable. Looks a solid chance.
11      11.00      9.09      Been taking rapid steps forward and can't ignore Weir / Lane combo. Keeping very safe.
12      34.00      2.94      Filly with lots of potential but hasn't really measured up when tested up in class. Possibly had some issues and was dominant here against easier two back. Maybe wants sting out.
13      21.00      4.76      Gets a horrible visitor's draw here. A bit of a shame as she worked home well last time and looks like a filly with plenty of upside.
14      101.00      0.99      Talented filly who's been running solid races. Looks tested back in trip against some of these who've had her well covered in the past though.
15      51.00      1.96      Progressive filly who won well back in class last time, but gets a nasty outside draw here. She's on the way up but will find this hard.
16      34.00      2.94      Shown good ability but needs everything to go right with her racing style. Win would surprise but could run into some minor money if they run along or are swooping out wide.
17      21.00      4.76      Sydney filly from the Hawkes camp who's been well beaten in her last couple, but behind two of the country's best fillies. Hard from the gate but can be running on late.
18      67.00      1.49      Faces a huge class rise here and prefer to risk, even from this yard.
19      34.00      2.94      Lightly raced gelding who was possibly forgivable 2nd up at specialist's track Oakbank after good first up win. Biggest test by far and gate doesn't help but wouldn't totally surprise.
20      34.00      2.94      Been gettting back and running on nicely. Up in class, out to 1400m and drawn wide are all question marks for her, has upside though.

Market 113% with emergencies to come out

Having something on Chapel City, nice horse. Not surprised if they're coming down the outer rail by then and Jamie Kah is very good at it. Swipe Me Right and Fully Stoked go in multiples.

--

AR8 - 4th leg

Race: 2030m 3yo Chairmans Stakes (outer track)      
Pace: Slow to moderate      
Rail: Out 5m (2000 to 1200) to 10m (1200 to finish) (=leaderish?)      

Horse      Odds      Percent      Notes
                  
1      9.00      11.11      Big free-running gelding who goes to another level with the sting out. Racing honestly and chance again, especially with the rail out and seemingly not much pace on.
2      5.00      20.00      Form in Australian and Rosehill Guineas looks good for this. Hard to say how wound up he is for this but looks better suited back to 2000m on top of the ground.
3      5.00      20.00      Progressive colt in the right hands who keeps improving with distance as his breeding would suggest. Good gap to the rest last time and keeping very safe again.
4      7.00      14.29      Only won the 1 from 10 but starting to find his feet out in distance now. Should get a nice run in behind the leaders with top local jockey Kah on.
5      26.00      3.85      Big step up in class here but maps to get a nice run and certainly looks a stayer in the making Rebel Raider ex Galileo mare. Maybe not today but could run a race in the Derby.
6      26.00      3.85      Steps up in class but will roll forward with not much pace on and the rail out. Drawn nicely and from top stable so definitely worth some consideration.
7      26.00      3.85      Nicely bred Pentire colt from the Weir yard who is developing well. Got well back last time and not much pace to set him up again here. Not surprised to see an improved run though.
8      34.00      2.94      Staying gelding stepping up in class but has been running on well. Bit one dimensional in that regard and seemingly not much pace here so happy to risk.
9      9.00      11.11      Lightly raced gelding with strong staying pedigree. Raw but improving fast and gets D Oliver on here. Watching closely.
10      201.00      0.50      Usually respect anything from this yard but have serious doubts about him at 2000m in this class.
11      101.00      0.99      Expensive colt who will be ok with time but looks too much too soon here.
12      0.00      0.00      scr
13      201.00      0.50      Jumps up in distance and class. Others have him covered.
14      201.00      0.50      Should probably win a maiden first..
15      11.00      9.09      Took control of apprentice rider and pulled her head off last time after previous excellent run. Holder on is significant, can improve sharply.
16      301.00      0.33      Sticks on ok but this class too hot.

Market 103%

Watching for Grand Chancellor to go out to $7's+, nice horse in the right yard who's done nothing wrong. Small spec bet Domesticated who goes into multiples also.

Lots of hard luck stories in the Chairmans.

Netherfield was backed for a packet and looked a good thing beaten. Had a lovely run but the gap just never came for Olly.

Domesticated ridden quiet for luck on the rail but copped nothing but a backwash of tiring runners.

Grand Chancellor and Morvada both got jammed up in traffic and could have easily won.

Volatile Mix got home well and was a nice SA Derby trial.

Meanwhile Lindop had Waging War wide but with clear running and dashed away. Though shall have more respect for 3yo's who win against older horses and drop back to 3yo grade.

No luck for the Kiwi runners today, Savvy Dreams scratched at the barrier and Lamborghini no hope out the back in a slowly run race.

Nice tip Amelie's Star, she's a promising mare and it's good to see her come back from a long injury enforced layoff.

Goodwood Day Quaddy Preview

Reports of any rain are exaggerated, only very light. Likely to be a Soft 5, maybe even a Good 4. Rail out 4m the entire circuit.

Race 5

Race:      2019m Centaurea Stakes      
Pace:      Slow to moderate      

Horse      Odds      Percent      Notes
                  
1      6.00      16.67      Weir trained (+) mare with good strike rate and perfect record this trip (+). Strong win last time and fitter 3rd up (+). Likely slow tempo and firmer track against (-). Right type of race for her.
2      11.00      9.09      Likely leader maps to get it fairly easy (+). Speedy pedigree but 2nd in G2 Matriarch only try this trip (+). Likely firm track suits (+). Have Another Glass who may have her covered (-), but may take catching if gets an easy time in front.
3      26.00      3.85      Talented mare coming in off the 7 week break and ran well off same break last time (+). Should settle within striking distance from nice gate (+). Meets a good field but has some chance on best form.
4      2.75      36.36      Ran right through the line and plenty of depth in her pedigree to suggest 2000m suits (+). Drawn a bit sticky but maps perfectly otherwise to sit right behind the moderate pace (+). Major player.
5      16.00      6.25      Handy mare coming to peak fitness but you feel a few of these might just outsprint her, especially if they don't go fast (-). Proven trip at least though and worked home strong last time (+). Will keep coming and wouldn't shock.
6      16.00      6.25      Blinkers off for first try this trip. Nicely bred to suggest it will suit. Talented mare but still raw, throwing it away last time when very wayward. Respect from this stable but inclined to wait and see.
7      51.00      1.96      Forgive last time when saddle slipped. Promising staying mare on the comeback trail. Gets back which won't help here and others look a bit more wound up.
8      34.00      2.94      Nicely bred Street Cry mare coming into peak fitness and preferred distance range. Form has dropped of though and would need to improve significantly.
9      16.00      6.25      Honest mare who's progressing nicely to this. Goes up in class but will settle handy and looks and outside chance.
10      67.00      1.49      Has shown glimpses of talent but a bit one dimensional. She races best ridden back for one last run which may be against her here.
11      26.00      3.85      Late maturing High Chapparral mare who's in career best form. Significant step up in class and pace scenario looks to go against her.
12      0.00      0.00      scr
13      21.00      4.76      3yo filly back in the winner's circle at Wagga, finishing hard late as she can. Steps up in class and distance against older mares here.
14      501.00      0.20      Nope

Market 99.92%

Like Have Another Glass here, nice mare on the up.

Race 6

Race:      1600m RA Lee Stakes G3 SWP      
Pace:      Moderate to solid      

Horse      Odds      Percent      Notes
                  
1      2.25      44.44      The obvious class horse who is suited at this weight scale (+). Won 6 of last 7 (+), and 6 times at this distance (+). They'll try everything to beat him but looks the testing material.
2      8.50      11.76      Noted fresh performer who comes in off a 4 week break (+) and impressive lead up trial (+). At the outer limits of his distance range, winning only once in ten tries at the mile (-), so probably takes a sit on the fave.
3      16.00      6.25      Owners would love him coming in off 3 100k race wins. Goes up another level here and has bad tendencies to pull (-). Hard to knock winning form but inclined to risk slightly.
4      7.00      14.29      Big win last time after unlucky first up run. Good record this trip and must be considered here.
5      21.00      4.76      Has some strong form around this trip but last couple have been poor. Better suited back at a mile but needs to improve.
6      34.00      2.94      Got caught out the back in slowly run race last time and just battled. Good win before that ridden closer. Trainer uses hurdle trial to keep him sharp which worked at Oakbank. Maybe a rough place chance at odds.
7      67.00      1.49      Got close to Burning Front before but a huge ask to drop back from heavy 8 Warrnambool Cup run. Think he'll be too dour now.
8      26.00      3.85      Nice run last time but looks on the edge of his distance range here. Will be at peak fitness though and trainer in form.
9      16.00      6.25      Recent form just average but out to her best trip here where she has form around some nice horses. Males might be a bit strong but respecting this trainer / jockey.
10      26.00      3.85      Honest mare with good second up record but this looks a bit too tough.

Market 99.88%

No real opinion here, Hooked unders out to the mile.

Race 7

Race:      1200m Goodwood G1 SWP      
Pace:      Moderate to solid      

Horse      Odds      Percent      Notes
                  
1      4.50      22.22      Bart goes for 4 million today and is all class. Only once worse than 2nd since joining the Weir yard (+). Will need to be wound up to win this with 59kg but looks the one to beat in otherwise open race.
2      5.00      20.00      Classy gelding who's quite evenly matched with BHB up to 1200m. Mad fresh record and comes in here off 7 week break. Major player.
3      41.00      2.44      Typically runs well here and no exception last start when just missed ridden off the speed. Should get a nice run from gate 4 and could be a place chance at odds.
4      81.00      1.23      Not very well in here as a 3yo with 57kg. Watch Goodwoods of past and you'll see it's so hard to win from these outside barriers, they just have to come so wide (-). Classy but hard to have here.
5      67.00      1.49      Lovely prep run (+) but has also suffered at the hands of the barrier gods (-). Will just have to go back and ride for luck.
6      7.00      14.29      Huge win last time from outside gate (+). Can go forward again from better gate and be hard to run down. Go even better if the track gets wet. They probably have to run sub 1:09 to beat her from this gate.
7      26.00      3.85      Untapped gelding who's won 9 from 14 in the west (+). Not far off in the Winterbottom (though every chance) and meets Malaguerra better at the weights? Must keep safe. Pre race ear muffs and lugging bit first time.
8      26.00      3.85      Shown glimpses of brilliance but all too infrequently. Get back horse who needs luck but wouldn't totally shock, especially this trainer / jockey.
9      201.00      0.50      Super money spinner for owners but hard to see him winning this as an 8yo from barrier 18 (-). Not a great record this distance (-).
10      34.00      2.94      Booming win back on top of the ground last time with 61kg. Big class rise here and would need another personal best to feature.
11      34.00      2.94      High strike rate Perth gelding with a huge finish at his best, big run in the Winterbottom when best closer. Gate hurts but no surprise to see him fly home over the top if there's a pace war.
12      151.00      0.66      Old warrior who chalked up a million in prizemoney last start. What a marvel but surely this is a bridge too far as an 8yo.
13      67.00      1.49      4yo gelding in career best form, a moral beaten last start. A shame about the gate as he is flying. Smaller horse so will appreciated getting back down to 55.5kg.
14      26.00      3.85      Underrated gelding who was badly held up last time. Been ridden upside lately down due to small paceless fields and can finally sit back here for one last shot. Actually wouldn't surprise me if he ran a huge race here.
15      13.00      7.69      Quality gelding who needs luck due to his get back style but can really monster the line. Possibly the best weighted horse in the race.
16      81.00      1.23      Very talented but injury prone galloper, hard to bet with confidence. Inclined to risk and watch go around again.
17      201.00      0.50      Honest local sprinter who always gives a sight but big class jump here (-). Barrier 19 seals the deal, not here.
18      0.00      0.00      Scratched
19      34.00      2.94      Talented filly since restricted to sprints on top of the ground (+). Perfectly ridden to just hold on in the Euclase but form has since been franked (+). Significant step up here but drawn nicely.
20      23.00      4.35      Going well since back to sprints and gets in nicely at the weights. No surprise to see her flying home.
21      81.00      1.23      1st emergency from good yard who would be an outside chance if he gets a run. Big step up in class though.
22      126.00      0.79      Nice horse aroumd Adelaide, can close off hard. Too hard this gate though.
23      201.00      0.50      Honest gelding who puts himself in the race and can run solid times over this track and trip. Hard this class and gate though.

Market 100.99 (emergencies to come out)

Bart will have to be on his game here. Warming to Malaguerra fresh with some nice value for multiples in the form of Kaepernick and Casino Wizard.

Race 8

Race:      1200m Proud Miss G3 SWP      
Pace:      Moderate to solid

Horse      Odds      Percent      Notes
                  
1      51.00      1.96      Caught wide last time totally forgive but hasn't really quite delivered when tested in better classes. Giving better ones weight, not for me.
2      26.00      3.85      Not horrible when thrown in the deep end first up from Europe, no clear running last 100m. Not much easier here but open to improvement off that (noted 2nd up performer), keeping safe.
3      34.00      2.94      Ran home well last week but a big step up from a BM70. Form up to 1200m is reasonable, may an outside place chance.
4      4.50      22.22      Talented mare who is much better suited here after drawing wide and running home in best late sectionals in G1 UBET Classic. Looks well placed here. Does always seem to be well found in the market though.
5      151.00      0.66      Nope.
6      11.00      9.09      Classy Weir mare who should improve 2nd up here after 1st up on heavy Warrnambool surface. Won't be fully wound up yet but must respect and keep safe this stable.
7      23.00      4.35      Has run some good races at 1200m with form around Secret Agenda, Sheidel and Secret Sedition - but seemed well held last time. A few of these have the wood on her so she'd need to improve.
8      151.00      0.66      Got a dream run to score two back and well held last week. Lame both hind legs last week not a great lead in! No.
9      41.00      2.44      Endured horrible 5WNC run on the pace last time giving her no hope. Prior win was good against lesser opposition. Can improve with a better run but doubt enough to be in the finish this class.
10      3.25      30.77      Massive run last start when flew home to just miss. Drawn out and Williams hasn't been that great over here this carnival but looks the one to beat with a repeat performance of last time.
11      18.00      5.56      Sebring mare who returned with nice run off long break. Has run some nice races this distance but probably only a place hope at this stage.
12      31.00      3.23      Honest mare who's been very well placed this campaign and now steps up in class. Will run her usual solid race but probably a few better ones here.
13      101.00      0.99      Nice local mare but too hard from out there in this class.
14      21.00      4.76      Progressive mare from top local stable. Had excuses last time but would need to improve for this. Solid 2nd up record.
15      101.00      0.99      Outclassed.
16      51.00      1.96      Can close hard and blinkers go back on here suggesting she's set for this. Rough place chance only though you'd think.
17      251.00      0.40      Bernardini mare from good country stable but plenty here going better than she is.
18      51.00      1.96      3yo filly by the all conquering Snitzel. Only won the 1 from 8 but has form around some handy types. Hard this class from gate 17.
19      67.00      1.49      Looks like they've figured her out as a sprinter best saved for one run. Solid last week but big jump in class and horrible gate makes it hard today.

Market 100.28%

No firm opinion, maybe Furyhk if she gets out a bit or follow the Weir train and have something small on both of his.

I am usually Jason Holder's no 1 fan but that's two consecutive below average rides on Lamborghini. Again got cluttered up and blocked on a horse that clearly wants galloping room. Feel a bit sorry for the NZ connections who've done the right thing and shown the initiative to bring him over.

We will not go into Emily Finnegan's ride on Have Another Glass .... ouch should have won by plenty, that's racing 

Yeah I was on again as well (Lamborghini). Just watched the replay. Pretty sure he didn't ride that horse out to the line from about the 300m - wouldn't have won so not suggesting anything untoward.

Agree with your observations about the horse needing galloping room. Had his head on his chest in the back straight. Always worried when you see that on a horse back in the field on the rails.

David Hayes interviewed after Vega Magic's win in the Goodwood said the plan was The Everest and was sort of lobbying for a ticket holder to come forward.

Just noticed it has been promoted to 3rd favourite behind Chautauqua and She Will Reign (Winx is still there but Waller has already categorically stated she won't be running).

Overall I think the quality of this year's carnival has been the best in many years.

The win of Kenedna in the Doomben Roses yesterday franks the fillies form.

Yeah we were blessed by excellent weather for May but an enjoyable and much improved carnival this year, agreed best in many years     

As goid as any method  
Ripper of a race

With the benefit of hindsight one could say the $25 was way overs for Santa Ana Lane.

Already had won the G1 Rupert Clarke (previous campaign) as well as the G3 Zedative and the Listed Wagga Town Plate.

In fact in the 9 starts since his Town Plate win he had only really put in one bad run. All the rest he was either winning or very close to horses like Vega Magic (last year's race), Brave Smash, Mr Sneaky, Viddora and Sprightly Lass.

Well in the market for the Stradbroke. Gave 6 kg to a lot of horses under the SWP of the Goodwood. Be interesting to see what weight he gets in the Straddie. His rating of 107 compares to the two "toppies" Le Romain and Vega Magic on 116.

Looks an ideal target.

Not sure it was unlucky Wily as it always has the get back, flash home run.

Just every so often he gets up   

I thought the same thing PP in hindsight & I actually considered it on the weekend but rarely do I bother with him due to his racing style. 

  Would the above race  The Goodwood at Morphetville Race 7 on 19/05/2018 have been a disaster for the syndicate punters considering the very few winning dollars on all of the three TABs.  With a TATTS First Four Pool of $500k , about 2.75 in winning F4 bets, and the other two TABS having high Jackpots going forward, even with rebates it is hard to see it being profitable or are my rough calcs wrong?.

 Perhaps the industry has found a method of destroying the big syndicate punter's  chances ( and they may pack up and disappear ),  due to those responsible adopting the opposite of what P.M proposes about Race Fields size; and we may look forward to 20 to 24 horse fields, becoming more common.