Adelaide quaddy market preview for Saturday. Bit of a marathon with the big fields but good racing. Just hope the Parks plays fair and it doesn't become a sideshow of who can get to the outside rail. 1st and last race on the main track with the rail out. Probably find a winner if you can pick the best of the on pacers in the first with first use of the new ground.
AR5 - 1st leg
Race: 1300m BM 82, 3yo+
Pace: Solid to Fast
1 13.00 7.69 Good winning strike+, Loves the sting out+, Improver 2nd up who maps to get a nice run. Form around Karlovasi & Cavaloce.
2 101.00 0.99 Ok record around this trip and fresh but fancy he's a rough place chance only.
3 101.00 0.99 Cast off- who's drawn horribly-. Showed talent and trialled ok, but wait to see once in tough race.
4 7.00 14.29 Brings some solid form with Oliver on from gate 1+, Ok 1 heavy run but more of a fast track pedigree. Gets nice run and weight drop, respecting.
5 34.00 2.94 Very good fresh+ but this is a big ask-. 8yo-. Ok strike rate and record this track. Edge of his distance range here-.
6 5.00 20.00 Great record this track+ Though will have to work slightly from the gate- Big jockey improvement+ A bit dull last week but must respect.
7 81.00 1.23 Never discount this stable but should be running on looking for longer. Wide gate and Parks' pattern makes it even tougher. Maybe comes in slightly under the radar off Alice prep.
8 34.00 2.94 Talented mare coming back from bleeding attack. Would have to wait and see with her. Did beat Hazy Lane first up similar race last time in.
9 5.00 20.00 Struck some serious form last time in and was a touch unlucky first up. Needs a bit of luck from the draw but looks to be enough speed to set him up.
10 26.00 3.85 Nice return and generally ok 2nd up. Super honest often just half a class below and wide gate makes it very tough.
11 34.00 2.94 33% win hitter but yet to really feature in metro grade. Drawn nicely and respecting, but more as a rough place chance.
12 7.00 14.29 25% win hitter who's gone to another level lately+ Tougher again here but should run well again with Holder on+ Loves any sting out, should get at least soft 5 here+, Good fresh+
13 13.00 7.69 Top young trainer brings this gelding with some nice form lines from the tough Vic provincial circuit. Tougher but respecting. Wide gate does hurt-
14 26.00 3.85 Fully fit now and respect this trainer, especially when Jamie Kah jumps on++ Seems to prefer longer these days but ok record this track and trip. Drawn nicely with enough speed on.
15 67.00 1.49 Can bob up, at his best would be in the finish here. Crafty trainer would have him peaking. Others seem to have him covered though.
16 51.00 1.96 Progressive type who worked through the grades nicely before a long break. Likely to find a few of these too sharp first up this class.
17 34.00 2.94 Very consistent Hussonet gelding. Up in class but should run well again from nice draw.
18 151.00 0.66 8yo well up in class, couldn't have him here despite racing consistently.
19 101.00 0.99 Will also likely find this class a bit hot, especially drawn out.
Market 112% with emergencies to come out
Backing Brown Ben, better than these if returns to last prep form. Small spec bet Our Exchange who also goes into multiples.
AR6 - 2nd leg
Race: 1400m Open Quality, Listed City Of Adelaide Stakes
Pace: Solid to Fast
Horse Odds Percent Notes
1 7.00 14.29 Drawn ok today and looks well placed down in grade on recent efforts. Respecting Weir/Lane combination.
2 34.00 2.94 Win machine who will be better suited over further with more fitness. Could run into a place.
3 13.00 7.69 Old marvel who killed many quaddies last time out.. (mine) On the edge of his distance range and only won once here but can't discount.
4 9.00 11.11 Changes back to original stable here after good Caulfield run. Brings some big time form lines and must be considered.
5 201.00 0.50 Five time winner of $424k but not going well enough. Ok fresh record but would really surprise.
6 5.00 20.00 Super honest gelding who's been racing in career best form. Looks very well placed with 54.5kg and barrier 4.
7 7.00 14.29 Very honest mare racing well without winning. Sure to run well again.
8 34.00 2.94 Adaptable local mare who's progressing well but not sure she quite measures up in class against some of these. Place chance only for mine.
9 21.00 4.76 Talented mare in good yard who's better suited out to 1400m. Bit tough from the gate this class but look for her running on late if they go hard.
10 13.00 7.69 Lethal combination of Clarken and Kah attracts notice here. Kept on the fresh side, might be the one storming down the outside rail. Keep safe and watch any market moves.
11 21.00 4.76 Honest gelding who loves it here. Up in class but sure to be well prepared by astute country trainer.
12 16.00 6.25 Progressive Fastnet Rock mare from top stable who's tactical speed should be an asset here. Maybe a run away from fully wound up but defititely one to consider.
13 34.00 2.94 Improving 4yo Bernardini mare from good provincial stable. Form to 1400m is very solid. Can run a race at odds.
14 201.00 0.50 Ok record this track but would surprise in this class.
Pretty much agree with the market here, no bet race for mine on current figures. Watching Evangelist, might be worth a small spec bet if gets out a little.
AR7 - 3rd leg
Race: 1400m sw 3yo Listed Nitschke Stakes
Pace: Moderate to solid
Rail: True position
Horse Odds Percent Notes
1 6.00 16.67 Very nice 3yo gelding who looks better suited out to 1400m. Be wary of Kah bringing him down the outside fence if the pattern emerges as we've seen previously. Major player here.
2 34.00 2.94 This looks like his best trip and won well here against easier in Feb. Bit harder here but has outside claims.
3 26.00 3.85 Talented gelding but will get back here 2nd up which is tough. A rough hope at odds.
4 51.00 1.96 Going through the grades nicely but huge jump in class here, even with Oliver going on. Not for me.
5 21.00 4.76 Better suited back to 1400m after failing over further. Won well first up and from top stable. Improver.
6 9.00 11.11 Classy filly with good record this track, though been a bit inconsistent lately. Expect her to get a nice run and give a big kick.
7 9.00 11.11 Nicely bred filly with honest form of late, including 2nd to Kenedna in The Vanity. Drawn wide and comes in fresh so may be vulnerable here. Definite contender at her best.
8 51.00 1.96 Been a great money spinner but suspect a few of these have her covered class wise. Good record this track so not totally writing off.
9 11.00 9.09 Will jump from the nice gate and race on the pace, which doesn't appear too hot here. Probably takes a nice trail on the back of Zunbaqa. Chance.
10 7.00 14.29 Superbly bred filly who ran on to share the prize last time and meets that filly slightly better at the weights. Hayes / Holder combo is becoming formidable. Looks a solid chance.
11 11.00 9.09 Been taking rapid steps forward and can't ignore Weir / Lane combo. Keeping very safe.
12 34.00 2.94 Filly with lots of potential but hasn't really measured up when tested up in class. Possibly had some issues and was dominant here against easier two back. Maybe wants sting out.
13 21.00 4.76 Gets a horrible visitor's draw here. A bit of a shame as she worked home well last time and looks like a filly with plenty of upside.
14 101.00 0.99 Talented filly who's been running solid races. Looks tested back in trip against some of these who've had her well covered in the past though.
15 51.00 1.96 Progressive filly who won well back in class last time, but gets a nasty outside draw here. She's on the way up but will find this hard.
16 34.00 2.94 Shown good ability but needs everything to go right with her racing style. Win would surprise but could run into some minor money if they run along or are swooping out wide.
17 21.00 4.76 Sydney filly from the Hawkes camp who's been well beaten in her last couple, but behind two of the country's best fillies. Hard from the gate but can be running on late.
18 67.00 1.49 Faces a huge class rise here and prefer to risk, even from this yard.
19 34.00 2.94 Lightly raced gelding who was possibly forgivable 2nd up at specialist's track Oakbank after good first up win. Biggest test by far and gate doesn't help but wouldn't totally surprise.
20 34.00 2.94 Been gettting back and running on nicely. Up in class, out to 1400m and drawn wide are all question marks for her, has upside though.
Market 113% with emergencies to come out
Having something on Chapel City, nice horse. Not surprised if they're coming down the outer rail by then and Jamie Kah is very good at it. Swipe Me Right and Fully Stoked go in multiples.
AR8 - 4th leg
Race: 2030m 3yo Chairmans Stakes (outer track)
Pace: Slow to moderate
Rail: Out 5m (2000 to 1200) to 10m (1200 to finish) (=leaderish?)
Horse Odds Percent Notes
1 9.00 11.11 Big free-running gelding who goes to another level with the sting out. Racing honestly and chance again, especially with the rail out and seemingly not much pace on.
2 5.00 20.00 Form in Australian and Rosehill Guineas looks good for this. Hard to say how wound up he is for this but looks better suited back to 2000m on top of the ground.
3 5.00 20.00 Progressive colt in the right hands who keeps improving with distance as his breeding would suggest. Good gap to the rest last time and keeping very safe again.
4 7.00 14.29 Only won the 1 from 10 but starting to find his feet out in distance now. Should get a nice run in behind the leaders with top local jockey Kah on.
5 26.00 3.85 Big step up in class here but maps to get a nice run and certainly looks a stayer in the making Rebel Raider ex Galileo mare. Maybe not today but could run a race in the Derby.
6 26.00 3.85 Steps up in class but will roll forward with not much pace on and the rail out. Drawn nicely and from top stable so definitely worth some consideration.
7 26.00 3.85 Nicely bred Pentire colt from the Weir yard who is developing well. Got well back last time and not much pace to set him up again here. Not surprised to see an improved run though.
8 34.00 2.94 Staying gelding stepping up in class but has been running on well. Bit one dimensional in that regard and seemingly not much pace here so happy to risk.
9 9.00 11.11 Lightly raced gelding with strong staying pedigree. Raw but improving fast and gets D Oliver on here. Watching closely.
10 201.00 0.50 Usually respect anything from this yard but have serious doubts about him at 2000m in this class.
11 101.00 0.99 Expensive colt who will be ok with time but looks too much too soon here.
12 0.00 0.00 scr
13 201.00 0.50 Jumps up in distance and class. Others have him covered.
14 201.00 0.50 Should probably win a maiden first..
15 11.00 9.09 Took control of apprentice rider and pulled her head off last time after previous excellent run. Holder on is significant, can improve sharply.
16 301.00 0.33 Sticks on ok but this class too hot.
Watching for Grand Chancellor to go out to $7's+, nice horse in the right yard who's done nothing wrong. Small spec bet Domesticated who goes into multiples also.