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2018 Qld Oaks G1 2200m May 26th - Qld Gallops - Racehorse TALK

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Offline PoisonPen7

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O.P. « 2018-May-21, 07:58 AM »
TREASURY BRISBANE QUEENSLAND OAKS (2200 METRES)

Of $500,000.1st $305,000, 2nd $102,500, 3rd $52,500, 4th $25,000, 5th $15,000 GROUP 1
Set Weights, Three-Years-Old, Fillies, Apprentices cannot claim.


Odds 21/05/18

No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Hcp Rating
1 5116x50376 ALOISIA (NZ) Ciaron Maher Damian Browne 7 56.5kg 104
2 165x454222 SHEEZDASHING Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra Damien Thornton 3 56.5kg 82
3 54x3111 YOUNGSTAR Chris Waller Kerrin McEvoy 4 56.5kg 86
4 1221x217 SAVACOOL (NZ) Chris Waller James McDonald 12 56.5kg 77
5 213122 ANOTHER DOLLAR (NZ) Chris Waller Glyn Schofield 2 56.5kg 80
6 65132x2212 TINKERMOSA (NZ) John Sargent Jeff Lloyd 9 56.5kg 73
7 89035x1163 HIGHWAY Steve Englebrecht Deanne Panya 10 56.5kg 72
8 213x60x096 JOYFILLY OURS (NZ) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Tim Clark 5 56.5kg 78
9 x579x12147 PLAY THAT SONG Michael Moroney Michael Cahill 15 56.5kg 68
10 741380x574 CORAL COAST Anthony Freedman Mark Zahra 16 56.5kg 70
11 148811 TERRA SANCTA (NZ) Tony Pike Jim Byrne 8 56.5kg 70
12 31x56991 IMPULSIVE Chris Waller Corey Brown 6 56.5kg 68
13 23x7132 MISS SHANTI Chris Waller Tye Angland 1 56.5kg 66
14 2322605725 DELANEY’S DESIRE Matt Kropp Tegan Harrison 14 56.5kg 58
15 6415x5462 PROTEST Bryan & Daniel Guy Craig Williams 13 56.5kg 62
16 6x631 SHE’S RELIABLE (NZ) Kelly Schweida James Orman 11 56.5kg 60
« Last Edit: 2018-May-25, 11:46 PM by PoisonPen7 »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-21, 08:10 AM Reply #1 »
Chris Waller has 8 of the 20 noms.

Without a doubt his best is the filly who has won her past 3 in impressive fashion Youngstar. Nice win in the Roses. Coral Coast was a good run as well.

http://www.racingqueensland.com.au/Racing-and-Results/Video-Replays/Search?code=thoroughbred&from=2018-05-12&to=2018-05-12

1000 Guineas winner Aloisa was 3rd in the recent Vinery and 7th in the Oaks at Randwick and has a lot of class. Highway was 3 deep for a lot of the Roses and to hang on for 3rd was meritorious.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-25, 11:46 PM Reply #2 »
TREASURY BRISBANE QUEENSLAND OAKS (2200 METRES)

Of $500,000.1st $305,000, 2nd $102,500, 3rd $52,500, 4th $25,000, 5th $15,000 GROUP 1
Set Weights, Three-Years-Old, Fillies, Apprentices cannot claim.


Odds 21/05/18

No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Hcp Rating
1 5116x50376 ALOISIA (NZ) Ciaron Maher Damian Browne 7 56.5kg 104
2 165x454222 SHEEZDASHING Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra Damien Thornton 3 56.5kg 82
3 54x3111 YOUNGSTAR Chris Waller Kerrin McEvoy 4 56.5kg 86
4 1221x217 SAVACOOL (NZ) Chris Waller James McDonald 12 56.5kg 77
5 213122 ANOTHER DOLLAR (NZ) Chris Waller Glyn Schofield 2 56.5kg 80
6 65132x2212 TINKERMOSA (NZ) John Sargent Jeff Lloyd 9 56.5kg 73
7 89035x1163 HIGHWAY Steve Englebrecht Deanne Panya 10 56.5kg 72
8 213x60x096 JOYFILLY OURS (NZ) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Tim Clark 5 56.5kg 78
9 x579x12147 PLAY THAT SONG Michael Moroney Michael Cahill 15 56.5kg 68
10 741380x574 CORAL COAST Anthony Freedman Mark Zahra 16 56.5kg 70
11 148811 TERRA SANCTA (NZ) Tony Pike Jim Byrne 8 56.5kg 70
12 31x56991 IMPULSIVE Chris Waller Corey Brown 6 56.5kg 68
13 23x7132 MISS SHANTI Chris Waller Tye Angland 1 56.5kg 66
14 2322605725 DELANEY’S DESIRE Matt Kropp Tegan Harrison 14 56.5kg 58
15 6415x5462 PROTEST Bryan & Daniel Guy Craig Williams 13 56.5kg 62
16 6x631 SHE’S RELIABLE (NZ) Kelly Schweida James Orman 11 56.5kg 60

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-26, 12:11 AM Reply #3 »
I thought there was enough of a gap between 4th and 5th in the Roses to have a stab and say the winner will come from that quartet. Might be wrong but you gotta have a go sometimes. #7 Highway was caught deep twice last start and I thought it's run was pretty good. The two that finished in front of it #3 Youngstar and #5 Another Dollar are $3.10 and $5.50. Highway is $41.00. #10 Coral Coast come from a long way off them to finish a nice 4th but didn't run past Highway when it was entitled to.

Of the others #13 Miss Shanti would give Pierro his 3rd classic winner in hist first crop of 3yos and the fact she is an improving Waller stayer you'd have to think she could win a big one. Interesting American breeding on the mum's side. You go back 3 generations and there is a winner of 3 US Group 1's including the Arkansas Derby (sounds important). #11 Terra Sancta is also by Pierro and the NZder only just won a Class 1 at the Sunshine Coast last start but looks to be on the improve.

EDIT: It would be Pierro's 4th Classic winner - Action won the WA Derby. Levendi and Pinot are the others.



« Last Edit: 2018-May-26, 12:23 AM by PoisonPen7 »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-26, 08:17 AM Reply #4 »
Is the SA form better than the QLD?


Online Dave

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« 2018-May-26, 10:15 AM Reply #5 »
A couple of points about Coral Coast, she has Blinkers first time, It looks like Mark Zahra preferred Coral Coast to Aloisia, last start she settled behind the leaders and then was checked and shuffled back to be well back and behind Youngstar.......her run wasn't much inferior(if at all) to Youngstar in terms of Merit, Youngstar is fav and Coral Coast is $31....there should not be that much between them

The other horse that I feel is huge overs is Joyfilly Ours, first up she hung like a Grape on a vine and was eased down so disregard her finishing position, second up she led against the boys with a big weight, kicked strong on the turn but ran out of condition, I would say Gai was pushing her and giving her hard runs to get her ready for this, then last time she made up ground in the roses(from 12th to 6th) a sign of good improvement, similar improvement again would make her a great each way chance.....and not sure what price she is now but I have $81 on Wednesday


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-26, 10:58 AM Reply #6 »
Is the SA form better than the QLD?

I have no idea mate. You have to make a stab at it. If the Qld form is stronger then there was a bit of a gap between 4th and 5th in the Roses and with two roughies in that Quartet you might get a nice reward on exotics if that theory holds.

But I fully acknowledge that the Adelaide form could be stronger and you also have some other formlines to consider.

This race can be the announcement of a champion as it was in 2015 with Winx and 2001 with Ethereal. Triscay, Surround and Denise's Joy won if you go back a bit further.

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-May-26, 11:18 AM Reply #7 »
  I doubt the computer has any better clue than any other B. F. M., but here it is anyway, but remember it is only a guess in progress. Don' t have the time to analyse it manually any further, nor even look at the Form; so my money won't be on.

Quote
VF140817 DB82605F * RACE NAME ID* [ DB82605F  2018. QUEENSLAND OAKS. GOOD,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2200 mtrs]. COMPRUN 05-26-2018. AT 10:45:15 RESULT  [   3  5  2  10   ~   13  11   ]

 
Quote
* HORSE NOS [  7  9  16  6  10 ]%VAL HILOW. !SELN $20 # 9 NOW! @$35. LR7DS=[  12  3y 11  3y ]
 *BOX7F4 KSN[  1  2  11  13  5  8  12  16  3  ]BASE DPLGWP[ 3  4  13 ]*LRWD= 11  12  15  13  3 ]
 *DUBL ROV BNKR [  1  2   ] X [SDup  16  3  11  12  13  <<GW1+  [ 1 2 5 8 3 ]* T4FVS[  3 1 5 4 ]. {<16  6  10
 *TRPL ROV BNKR [  1  2   0] X [ *I/CCL= 1  8  5  9  12  ]*MVRvBnk<<  SPGM  3 <[TLMV 11 3 4 13 16  ] +
 T3VIC$  1  8   8  12  16    7  9  16  *. KEEP TRIPLS.. *$V%RUF*[  16  @ $51/1 107% ]*  * SPLRESIDS** [  3  4  11  12  13  16 ]* USE ALL!.

 *Cnts in TX2=[ #3 =8 ] #1 =7 ] #16 =7 ] #12 =6 ] #8 =5 ] #11 =5 ] #13 =5 ] #2 =4 ] #5 =4 ] #9 =4 ] #4 =3 ] TRY
  That should confuse your thinking.
« Last Edit: 2018-May-26, 08:36 PM by pegasyber »

Offline Gintara

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« 2018-May-26, 01:10 PM Reply #8 »
I'm going with Adelaide  :chin:

Sheezdashing to break through from Youngstar & Savacool.

I'm risking Aloisia, she's looked a star before the Vic Oaks but has been plain since.

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-May-26, 03:10 PM Reply #9 »
 Statistical Factors System has a different view, and the track is now SOFT ( 6 ).  This study was when track was Good ( 4 ). 
Quote
VF140817 DB82605F * RACE NAME ID* [ DB82605F  2018. QUEENSLAND OAKS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2200 mtrs]. COMPRUN 05-26-2018. AT 10:45:15 RESULT  [   3  5  2  10   ~   13  11   ]
  data error noticed so computer line removed till problem found.
 

  * Line Redone and only slight change, confirmed by second different program.  But I would not rely on it.
Quote
SF080418 DB82605W * TOP8 FACTORS. [  5  4  1  11  3  12  is *NSUPSOL*.  6  16  15  ] *TOP6* Best. [ + *SpicyCrshd* [  2  ] [  10   ] ] CHK WTs.NO 5  0kg. AND  NO 4  .5kg.  ?TICK?
  * Think it is time to give this all away.
« Last Edit: 2018-May-26, 08:35 PM by pegasyber »

Online JWesleyHarding

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« 2018-May-26, 04:58 PM Reply #10 »
Whatta win :thumbsup:

I said before the turn "the favourite's gone"/


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-26, 05:09 PM Reply #11 »
Whatta win :thumbsup:

I said before the turn "the favourite's gone"/

It was especially a good win when you consider it was 3 deep for half the race.

My Qld Form theory got 3 out of 4 with the Adelaide #1 sneaking in.

With Highway I was hoping she would lead then string them out a bit because it looks a good High Chap stayer in the making.

She did the first bit then grabbed the reins and with the close up I knew it was gone entering the back straight as you could see it fighting the rider. Not really sure why they do this  :no: Sort of horse that would be much better off with Waller or Weir.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-26, 08:03 PM Reply #12 »
Watching the replay, the 3rd horse   was dead stiff

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-May-27, 04:56 PM Reply #13 »
  Can one get a replay of this race on later days, using UBET vision replay?

  Once the two main systems were working the computers attempt to generate a reasonable First Four showed the Factors System was better than the Speed System.

Quote
* HORSE NOS [  7  9  16  6  10 ]%VAL HILOW. !SELN $20 # 9 NOW! @$35. LR7DS=[  12  3y 11  3y ]
 *BOX7F4 KSN[  1  2  11  13  5  8  12  16  3  ]BASE DPLGWP[ 3  4  13 ]*LRWD= 11  12  15  13  3 ]
 *DUBL ROV BNKR [  1  2   ] X [SDup 16  3  11  12  13  <<GW1+ [ 1 2 5 8 3 ]* T4FV[  3 1 5 4 ]. {<16  6  10 >}
 *TRPL ROV BNKR [  1  2   0] X [ *I/CCL= 1  8  5  9  12  ]*MVRvBnk<<  SPGM  3 <[TLMV 11 3 4 13 16  ] +
 T3VIC$  1  8   8  12  16    7  9  16  *. KEEP TRIPLS.. *$V%RUF*[  16  @ $51/1 107% ]*
 * MIN. BASE F4  [  5   10   11   2   3   12   0  *SMKY= [ 1 ] *SPCY [  2   10  ]  * SPLRESIDS** [  3  4  11  12  13  16 ]* USE ALL!.
 *IN TX2[ #3 =9 ] #1 =8 ] #12 =7 ] #16 =7 ] #2 =6 ] #11 =6 ] #5 =5 ] #8 =5 ] #13 =5 ] #9 =4 ] #10 =4 ] #4 =3 ]
« Last Edit: 2018-May-27, 04:59 PM by pegasyber »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-27, 05:08 PM Reply #14 »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-May-27, 05:24 PM Reply #15 »
 Thanks PP7  got something up which looks good but yet to locate this particular race.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-27, 05:27 PM Reply #16 »
Thanks PP7  got something up which looks good but yet to locate this particular race.

Races 4 and 8 are missing  :chin:

If you have a NSW/Victorian TAB Account you can watch the replay by selecting Menu/Results/Previous Results, scrolling down and clicking on Doomben Race 8. Just checked and it is there.

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-May-27, 06:49 PM Reply #17 »
  Thank you got it great.  Think # 5 was a tad unlucky. Not too much wrong with STATS FACTORS SYSTEM.Cheers.
* MIN. BASE F4  [  5   10     11  2   3   12   0  *SMKY= [ 1 ] *SPCY [  2   10  ]  * SPLRESIDS** [  3  4  11  12  13  16 ]* USE ALL!.
« Last Edit: 2018-May-27, 07:15 PM by pegasyber »


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