Author Topic: $80 minimum - can you make money on them? (Read 1033 times)

fours · O.P. « 2021-Feb-17, 09:09 AM »

Most of the racing literature will tell you that the longer the price the more you lose in the long term.

This is true for anyone stupid enough to back all of them at all prices.

Another fault in that outlook is that WIN bet returns only appear to be the measuring tool. Only occasionally do you see place returns also being considered.

And never once have I seen 4th place for first fours being considered. NOT ONCE!

The closest I have seen to 4th being considered was by a real innovator in Mark Read who provided stats for career starts which included 4th place whereas virtually all other sites only give stats to 3rd place. Without going into the whys I will merely state for some horse profiles such is very usefull information. BUT forget the averages which mislead.

So when it suits me I will provide tips on horses at a minimum $80 be it fixed or pari and tell you straight up I expect a woeful strike rate for the win and place and even 4th. That does not mean a profit cannot be shown.

So bets will be for a nominal total of $20 each being $13.00 the place and 2 $3.50 bets for 4th being first fours of course.

Going to be creative with the first fours in that there will be basic tickets of abc/f/f/x and f/abc/f/x where

x is the selection f is field and a b and c are not done by odds or the market but are the 3 best place % from their last 50 rides jockeys for the venue. Must have 50 rides to qualify and the Racing and Sports order as listed will be used. IF I need to limit selections in BIG fields I will say so then.

Fours
ps Thought it was time for something a little different for the forum - maybe the 300 plus lurkers I regularly see could provide something themselves....

Addendum :- when RacingandSports page not avavilable just use the 3 favs for the abc selections. From time to time it simply does not work - like right now

fours · « 2021-Feb-17, 10:27 AM **Reply #1** »

Normally I would not do bets at this time but just before the jump but to kick things off and give an example of the jockey work out the first bet is at Sandown race 6 on Torgersen currently fixed 81 and pari 155. We will accept the best win and place return just before the jump regardless this one time regardless of prices.

The top 3 jockeys by place order are Yendall Zahra Currie but we have to go further down the list as 2 of those are not in the race. We end up with Zahra Kah and Stackhouse mounts being 4, 3 and 7 as our abc horses.

Why Torgersen - performs much better 2nd up then first up and down in grade to 78 compared to last preps listed company when 1.1L from the winner. May well be a broken down crock but is it worth finding out at 80/1? You will see many horses with similar form profiles starting at a quarter the odds and less.

Fours

usernametaken2 · « 2021-Feb-17, 11:11 AM **Reply #2** »

A lurker no more 4's

Top stuff, this is what the forum should be about. Not that I will be able to contribute much.
Hope it goes well.

fours · « 2021-Feb-17, 05:35 PM **Reply #3** »

Well Torgersen competitive until the turn then gapped by the fit and ready contenders this time which will be the normal result..... until it is not!

So the question becomes can one of these fill a place at better than 1 in 20 which was todays place return approximately.

Selections before r5 will be rare on any card.

Fours

nemisis · « 2021-Feb-17, 06:51 PM **Reply #4** »

Were you aware of the bandaged front legs on Torgersen, fours?
Obviously this fellow has had a tendon injury!

Ugly side of racing for mine.......4 years plus at Wallers and $582K in the bank .......the rising 9yr old deserves a bit better.

fours · « 2021-Feb-17, 07:12 PM **Reply #5** »

nemisis,

I make use of NIL inside knoweldge so was not aware.

Torgersen ran no worse than I expect the majority of mine to run here bandages or not..

Its the 1 to 3 that surprise the market per 20 picks hopefully that this approach depends upon to show a profit.

My skill or lack there of is the main determinant - the mathematics is sound and the potential upside far more than taking on the bookie over favourites.

Fours
ps there will be some young horse picks

ratsack · « 2021-Feb-17, 07:26 PM **Reply #6** »

Good luck , i will follow with interest .
Last comment from me

Peter Mair · « 2021-Feb-17, 08:04 PM **Reply #7** »

The kennel-klub-kids have promoted similar nonsense before

............ knowing it is nonsense ................. take no notice of it ................. it is not 'new thinking'..................it is plain nonsense!

fours · « 2021-Feb-17, 08:15 PM **Reply #8** »

Peter,

Every bet type made a profit last time around - so what is the name I am not calling you?

You seem determined to keep earning it and remember that was done in field sizes you said such was impossible to do.

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-17, 08:44 PM **Reply #9** »

Hong Kong r1 11 Ourgoldenrules

fours · « 2021-Feb-18, 01:37 PM **Reply #10** »

Ourgoldenrules was not disgraced finishing 6th. In general pools of only 6 grand or so should be left alone with this approach as the max dividend for that venue would have been in the vicinity of $10,000. We had Teetan 2nd so the return would have been in the vicinity of 3.5/270 x 10,000 or $129.63. With 2 jockeys in the quin spot double that.

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-19, 08:12 PM **Reply #11** »

Canterbury r8 #17 Ladies' Gem

Fours
126 and 16 fixed it is

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 10:11 AM **Reply #12** »

Hmmm Ladies' Gem was not up to the class - jockey not at fault at all.

Today I am going early as I think the price is just wrong early and may disappear later with Too Close The Sun at $81 and $12 fixed which is up to the class no question and a very consistant horse with an 83% place strike rate and most of them in the quin spots.

So MR6 #5 today and the abc jockeys are Pike Kah and Nolen a little different to most lists people would make..... but maybe thats why we can profit.

Fours
this is what I would call a strong case rather than a hail mary pass. No doubt the likes of nemisis will say i am mad and the target is down the road ( All Star Mile ) but they might be forgetting 4th will do me just fine.

nemisis · « 2021-Feb-20, 10:49 AM **Reply #13** »

Fours, don't get strung up by a comment or two I might make. ....."likes of me"

I like a roughie as much as anyone!
Torgersen's bandaged front legs on a firm track after over a year off ????....no thanks.

I used yesterday's boost on Chapada.....got $26.
Five 1st up starts for 1 placing hardly looks a "good" bet .....but then take a closer look.
He's finished in front of most of his opposition before on a firm track.
No doubt in my mind he will be finishing off very strongly......will he make it into a dividend bearing position????

.....won't be far away!

Moroney's are no doubt trying to get him in to The Australian Cup in a couple of weeks......could just be a warm up today although there is enough interest in him for my liking!
Very different looking WFA race.
Little saver on my old fav......Steel Prince and a bit of patience required!

Gintara · « 2021-Feb-20, 12:12 PM **Reply #14** »

I struggle to back Moroney's horses as I find them so inconsistent and tend to spike in form

It does lead to some bigger divvi's because of that I guess but I tend to go the other way, bet around that stable and cope it when one gets you.

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 01:08 PM **Reply #15** »

SR3 #4 Miss Sentimental took the fixed 126 and 14

You know this trainer gets them ready when you might not think they are...

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 01:12 PM **Reply #16** »

Not far away at all

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 02:50 PM **Reply #17** »

Yarra Valley R6 #10 Keep The Magic

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 03:13 PM **Reply #18** »

MR7 #6 Abseiler

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 03:25 PM **Reply #19** »

AR6 #8 Plaisir

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 03:33 PM **Reply #20** »

Hmmmm close up 5th

SR7 #12 Easy Campese 151 and 14 fixed

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 03:42 PM **Reply #21** »

BR6 #10 Arrow Express

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 03:55 PM **Reply #22** »

$22.65 ff dividend in prior race

MR8 #How Womantic and worry about the ff if it gets up due to huge field

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 04:04 PM **Reply #23** »

AR8 #8 Reinvigorate.

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 04:13 PM **Reply #24** »

Another one not disgraced at all given the price

Soft track may help SR 8 #5 Spending To Win

Fours