Author Topic: $80 minimum - can you make money on them? (Read 1034 times)

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 04:38 PM **Reply #25** »

Wagga R8 #10 Sizzling Cat

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 04:47 PM **Reply #26** »

Potential - I decided wrongly prior race between sizzling cat and Takissacod but the 37 grand first four for 3rd shows you the potential

Korodon if long enough . ar9 #9

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 05:10 PM **Reply #27** »

Newcastle r8 #14 Trophies Galore 81 and 14 fixed grabbed

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 05:16 PM **Reply #28** »

For a moment it looked like the $81 was in the bag but had to settle for a head second $14.00

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 05:31 PM **Reply #29** »

WR6 #7 Pretentious Chant 201 and 24 taken fixed

Fours

Peter Mair · « 2021-Feb-20, 05:47 PM **Reply #30** »

.........a time for rethinking?

Thought it was time for something a little different for the forum

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 05:58 PM **Reply #31** »

Peter,

Something you seem totally unable to do - so suggest you leave it alone.

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 06:49 PM **Reply #32** »

WR8 #1 Touch Of Silver

Fours

Peter Mair · « 2021-Feb-20, 07:21 PM **Reply #33** »

.
..................... the premise of this thread is an exercise in 'insanity' ........... this will reveall itself .............the 'talk' will grind to a halt.

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 07:41 PM **Reply #34** »

Peter,

I have already done profitbaly what you say is impossible several times over....

Dogs show the ability to learn.....

Why cant you?

Fours

fours · « 2021-Feb-20, 11:19 PM **Reply #35** »

Think I will call it quits there as have shown enough of the ins and outs of what is possible with culling from the 80/1 plus only horses severely.

Trophies Galore $14.00 the place is all we got from 18 picks but of course the close $81 win foregone could have changed things dramatically. So slight changes in strike rate make a huge difference to profitability here where they make virtually no difference when chasing favourites....

Shorties predominating in the only first four dividend made for disappointing returns today but Wagga race 8 shows the potential with a 37 grand first four for 3rd which the abc jockeys would have delivered had we covered 3rd with it and also not gone with the wrong horse.

So the finsihing distribution of horses that ran well in the 80/1 plus bracket was a lone 2nd with the rest struggling to make make fourth but not far off with around half along way back. Other days a few more might make 3rd or fourth as the variance plays out.

A better way to tackle them maybe $1 win plus
$1 field/x exacta and
$1 place or $3 per selection.

The win bet can be anywhere you like - as Betfair may offer $300 instead of only $100, the Trophies Galore exacta paid $1,316.00 on the NSW tote so a humble buck returned $131.60 for it and there was the lone $14 place collect. In this way on the 18 actual selections made the $54 out laid would return $145.60

First fours for 4th are a lot harder to cover efficiently and you are not paying me enough to cover that.

Fours
ps the Trophies Galore trifecta paid $26 grand in NSW and once you had the 80/1 pop getting it was not so hard at all - paid a lot less elsewhere so care as to where you bet matters. Make the most of your hard work.

Peter Mair · « 2021-Feb-21, 08:19 PM **Reply #36** »

................... Think I will call it quits

.... there is no clamour not to

.............. how many Victorians lost how much on this 'dare to be different' nonsense?

ratsack · « 2021-Feb-21, 08:29 PM **Reply #37** »

less than on Pokies , with no chance of winning

i'll stick with this thanks

Peter Mair · « 2021-Feb-21, 08:43 PM **Reply #38** »

Slower-death racing v. quicker death pokies.

...... the disturbing reality is that ..... considering the time wasted on irrelevant 'form' study ............ a quicker trip to the cleaners at the pokies is sensibly preferable to wasting Friday and Saturday ....... or any other day...............on a lost cause, almost sure to lose 100% of bets placed.

...... as the racing game is run in Victoria ................. the risk of loss on the pokies is less than the risk of loss on racing bets.

Gintara · « 2021-Feb-21, 10:26 PM **Reply #39** »

Quote from: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-21, 08:43 PM

a quicker trip to the cleaners at the pokies is sensibly preferable to wasting Friday and Saturday ....... or any other day...............on a lost cause, almost sure to lose 100% of bets placed.

.

You really have lost it now when you write such nonsense. Pokies FFS?

fours · « 2021-Feb-21, 11:19 PM **Reply #40** »

Peter,

I try to leave you alone but you insist on being the idiot.

I mentioned 3 weeks running that Shinn's rides on horses at very long prices should always be carefully looked at while he was being overlooked in Honk Kong to a large degree. You can't claim you have not been told before the race as this time it is in fact 3 times before the day of the race plus you have been given a betting approach to try.

His ride on Stoic at 217/1 into 4th in the last race today is yet another example and given the horses stats at the distance were 3 placings from 4 attempts and had also always placed 3rd up from a spell it was a prime candidate for this method. The suggested first four approach got the $15,376.80 on its ear and was unlucky not to get it twice given that Zac Purton was 3rd.

Peter - ONLY IDIOTS NEED TIPS FROM OTHERS BEFORE THE RACE to lose money anyway.

When you put some effort in and do the form yourself maybe then you can turn horses at even greater than 200/1 into profitbale conveyances for you when they meet your criteria.

Consider yourself well and truly put in your place.

Fours
If I hear from more than 20 lurkers that never post I will consider putting up something like this with roughies but maybe starting at 40/1 minimum. Really I would like to see more lurkers posting their own things and also suggesting improvements to anything I mention here. Yes I can provide improvements to the above but wanted to give others a chance to do so first. eg $1 quinella the field and $1 field field x trifecta costs only $2 per roughy and will return a higher dividend than a place bet often..... in the long term.... depends on a few things.

wily ole dog · « 2021-Feb-22, 08:49 AM **Reply #41** »

I backed a winner on Saturday.
It opened at $21 and Mair would have scratched it
It was backed into $4

What an idiot Mair is. A failed administrator in the past you’d think he would realise what a goose he is and shut the F up.

nemisis · « 2021-Feb-22, 10:58 AM **Reply #42** »

Can't see how this can ever work on a consistent basis, fours.
Your later Sat arvo work had drunken sailor written all over it.

Quinellas, exactas, e/w or first 4's.....all this small percentage betting can add up to heavy losses.
All very well a roughie getting in somewhere but then you still have to combine all of the others.....it's "do your head in stuff"

You look to me that you are not looking to find the best horse in the field, relative to the track conditions or any biases on the day.
Hanging your hat on Too Close The Sun at WFA is not the smartest thing to do.
Consistent horse?....yes, but up against a couple of the countries top mares!
Much safer option in WFA racing is trust the handicap ratings.....just a bit sad we live in a world of the dopers.

fours · « 2021-Feb-22, 11:03 AM **Reply #43** »

nemisis,

You have to take your win bet mentality off to understand the approach.

Fourth is perfectly fine to make money as per Shinn's $218.00 fourth. Can be many many lemgths behind the best 3 horses in the race and the money paid buys the same thing as the 10 length winner at $1.50.

Fours
ps drunken sailor - again you have it wrong - I am merely offering a variety of approaches for people to consider. No one method is the best approach for all circumsatnces. My own betting is different to anything offered here. jfc is not totally stupid - you dont give away the gold ..... but I dont mind offering crumbs. My crumbs may welle xceed what others consider gold - its all relative.

fours · « 2021-Feb-22, 11:21 AM **Reply #44** »

Accidents of the race.......

People that back roughies strongly benefit from them whereas short favourite backers can go from profitable to losing on just a few instances.

Horses are not machines and we recently saw Melody Belle at $1.30 the win quote ( the best horse by far in its race ) fail to place or even run fourth. The small field first four paid >$55,000.00 with the roughy running 3rd. Too hard to get regardless for many? So I gave alternatives to consider as per :-

$1 place on the roughy pays only $12.70 wheres my suggestion to consider field field roughy trifecta for 3rd returns $59.92 for those that find the first fours too tough and a head ache. If you want to divide by 3 to compare you were still better off than a place bet with $19.97. Such wont always be the case.

You dont need me to tell you the strike rate for the win spot will be woefull..... backing extreme roughies .... but this mentality may stop you making money elsewhere.... like 3rd and fourth.

Like any other form of betting how well you do things matters.

Fours
ps So the trainer, or the jockey, or a stablehand make the fav run dead or lose in some way - as the roughy backer you are laughing rather than crying. Just one example of how you can benefit without inside knoweldge .... by being braver than most.

nemisis · « 2021-Feb-22, 11:45 AM **Reply #45** »

If you are only offering "crumbs" as you call it fours, then I would say.....What's the point?
Make a case for a roughie, by all means......but you need to "make the case".

Melody Belle is a good example of the "conditions" on the day.
Would I back her on a bone dry Waikato track over 2000M at short odds?.....not on your Nellie.

fours · « 2021-Feb-22, 12:05 PM **Reply #46** »

nemisis,

I can make a case for ALL of the roughies tipped. That is why they were tipped.

It is important that you focus on the points I am making. They are about opportunites to profit that many are over looking now TOTALLY. Shinn has demonstrated the truth in what I am saying 4 weeks in a row now - it is no fluke by him or me.

Nemisis you are half way there in pointing out seeing certain conditions when a short fav may be suspect...... Don't stop there ----- take this much further.

Fours

nemisis · « 2021-Feb-22, 12:55 PM **Reply #47** »

I used to bet against Kingston Town over a trip just because he was by Bletchingly.....I've learned a bit......I had to!

I would say no-one would follow any of your "tips".....there needs to be an explanation of "why"
Midterm on a hard track or Torgersen with his bandaged tendons just makes no sense!
Do you realise how serious a tendon injury is for a racehorse?....it was hard to miss your "competitive early" comment

I have a 24 hr small limit on my account and never keep more than $100 there.....it's deliberate because it takes the gung-ho away from me.
I would recommend it.....it's a crook caper, racing in this country and doesn't deserve to have serious money thrown at it.

You need to post a ticket occasionally fours......for your credibility!

fours · « 2021-Feb-22, 02:48 PM **Reply #48** »

What are you on about?

All selections were before the race and following Shinn on out and out roughies mentioned 3 times previously.

You are making no sense.

People have to do some work and produce their own selections - I am just providing food for thought and discussion.

Have won more than one comp with roughies so no need to prove anything to anybody if that is your gist.

Fours
ps No I did not know about the tendon issue but it is a moot point - always going to get >70% wrong here..... The thread is about what you can do with the ones that succeed. Have to lose your favourite backing, all boxes ticked, short priced high strike rate mentality. Another way to put it is a 100% win strike rate on $2 favs, which you cannot do, only makes 100% POT. I only need a 2% win strike rate to equal that...... The potential for profit is much higher with what I suggest here than backing short horses.

fours · « 2021-Feb-22, 03:00 PM **Reply #49** »

nemisis,

Posting a ticket - the winning one of 100's - would be very misleading.

You are a bit out fo your depth.

My posts are greatly simplified compared to what I actually do. Method here is for the average joe bloe to try with few tickets rather than the ones already using software to do 100's of tickets per race so that weighting etc can be looked after.

Fours