2018 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500 METRES) - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



2018 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500 METRES) - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: 2018 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500 METRES)  (Read 693 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20286
O.P. « 2018-Oct-31, 10:06 AM »
2018 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500 METRES)

Of $2,000,000.1st $1,200,000, 2nd $360,000, 3rd $180,000, 4th $90,000, 5th $50,000, 6th $40,000, 7th $40,000, 8th $40,000
Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution GROUP 1
Set Weights, Three-Years-Old, Apprentices cannot claim.
This race carries a SUPER VOBIS Nominators Bonus of $10,000 for qualified horses.


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 131131 THINKINí BIG Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Tim Clark 9 55.5kg
2 214123 ARAMAYO James Cummings Tye Angland 10 55.5kg
3 21116 EXTRA BRUT Darren Weir John Allen 15 55.5kg
4 78x647221 STARS OF CARRUM Robbie Laing Ben Melham 7 55.5kg
5 4115x6381 HOME GROUND John Sargent Hugh Bowman 16 55.5kg
6 259x1155 MICKEY BLUE EYES David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Regan Bayliss 3 55.5kg
7 5321132 SAVOIE Darren Weir Dean Yendall 17 55.5kg
8 711704 VISAO Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Damian Lane 13 55.5kg
9 200x969430 SEBERATE David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Cory Parish 18 55.5kg
10 6512 CHAPADA Michael Moroney James McDonald 12 55.5kg
11 7x26123 SIKORSKY David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Luke Nolen 6 55.5kg
12 1x45x19892 FAROOQ Tony McEvoy Kerrin McEvoy 2 55.5kg
13 715x22340 LOUIE THE LEGEND Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Dwayne Dunn 11 55.5kg
14 18464 SAVVY OAK (NZ) Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Mark Zahra 5 55.5kg
15 124 TOLEMAC Francis Finnegan
14 55.5kg
16 93313 GRINZINGER STAR (NZ) Danny O'Brien Damien Oliver 4 55.5kg
17e 151 ALESSANDRO Robbie Griffiths Ben Thompson 1 55.5kg
18e 8321 VOW AND DECLARE Danny O'Brien James Winks 8 55.5kg

Offline Wenona

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 175
  • Posts: 7315
« 2018-Nov-01, 08:21 AM Reply #1 »
Thinkin Big wins the Derby then repels the invasion of marauding overseas conquerors in the big one ....... now that would be Champion!   :biggrin:
« Last Edit: 2018-Nov-01, 08:26 AM by Wenona »

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20286
« 2018-Nov-01, 09:39 AM Reply #2 »
Thinkin Big wins the Derby then repels the invasion of marauding overseas conquerors in the big one ....... now that would be Champion!   :biggrin:

I've backed it (just a little) at $67 in the Cup.

It is $2.90 on Saturday and Gai has openly stated she will start it in the Cup if it wins.

If you back it on Saturday you should have a little in the Cup because if it does win there will be no $67.

Offline pegasyber

  • Group 2
  • User 909
  • Posts: 1478
« 2018-Nov-03, 02:40 PM Reply #3 »
  Back late from hospital, but if SPEED has anything to do with Racing then the colored four are within 3.0 lengths of the first selection:
Quote
VF140817 FL70311F * RACE NAME ID* [ FL70311F  2018. VICTORIA DERBY,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2500 mtrs]. COMPRUN 11-03-2018. AT 07:38:47 RESULT  [    3  4  10  11   ~   5   2   ]  F4 $30, 178.

VF140817 FL70311F * WMSPD ORD TNO [    12      5      2     16      3     11      7     13     15      4      6      9     14      1      8     10     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  ]*SPL*
VF140817 FL70311F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  962   956   937   936   927   927   915   911   906   902   902   901   892   878   856   849   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 FL70311F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  6.4   6.4   10.4   10.7   13.6   13.6   21.1   25.2   31.4   37.2   37.2   39.3   62.6   125.4   246.8   370.7   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *

VF140817 FL70311F * KEY SPEED NOS [   5   +I/C. +TJ!. 12   +!.  +TJ!. 16   +I/C. .]>1.  1   +!.  +GW!. +TJ!. =*NK*. 2  * +!. +I/C. +GW!. 3   +!. +I/C. +TJ!. 8    +TJ!. 10    +TJ!. 15   ] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 1 +TJ!.  +GW!.  +!.  3y <. < 10 +TJ!.  3y< ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 4  1  << 1  2  3  12  <<=BDUPL. *BP%P*= 1 <: ]. <<] ]CKCNT
« Last Edit: 2018-Nov-03, 06:01 PM by pegasyber »

Offline tontonan

  • Group 2
  • User 106
  • Posts: 3417
« 2018-Nov-03, 04:16 PM Reply #4 »
As soon as Seberate took off that race belonged to Extra Brut.  The downside was the suicidal pacemaker kept Allesandro out of the field.  But then, without a pacemaker I doubt Allesandro would have figured in any case.  Thinkin' Big was flattered last time when allowed to control the race.  It was taken out of his hands today.   

Offline pegasyber

  • Group 2
  • User 909
  • Posts: 1478
« 2018-Nov-03, 06:12 PM Reply #5 »
  Even the lazy ones who don't understand the FORM, but who did the simple exercise with Pencil and Paper would have come up with:

VF140817 FL70311F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  3  2  1  7  12  ] [  3 EXTRA BRUT.  ---  ].[ 2 ARAMAYO W%. a *LR7DS* ].[ 1 THINKIN' B.  ---  ].[ 7 SAVOIE W% . a *LR7DS* ].[ 12 FAROOQ W% .  ---  ].[ ] F4 & 5LOW WDIV E/W BET *

   What were they Thinkin?.

Online nemisis

  • Group3
  • User 2461
  • Posts: 819
« 2018-Nov-03, 07:48 PM Reply #6 »
Extraordinary betting drift on Stars Of Carrum today.
Was $6.00 when I logged on this morning and yet started at $18.00.

Had to go looking to see what seemed to be wrong with him but paraded well and traveled beautifully....really good to see the Fiorente's going well.

Not sure what was going on with Seberate.......was it to lay the pace right on for a stablemate or bring down the favourite?

Stewards not overly concerned by it.

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4368
« 2018-Nov-03, 08:19 PM Reply #7 »


Tell us ahead of the race

If the 'pega' has something to say -- please say it before the race and put it all in number order of wining chance, please.

Offline fours

  • Group 1
  • User 704
  • Posts: 5386
« 2018-Nov-03, 08:48 PM Reply #8 »
Peter,

I suggest you have a look at the results of the $100,000.00 tab tipping contest on the Felmington 9 race card based on a $10 each way notional bet.

The winner scored over $800 which means they got the maximum dividend possible in almost every race - thats the maximum each way dividend.

Peter you would have us believe that this person has inside info on all Australian trainers, plus all GB trainers, plus all Japanese trainers, plus all German trainers and so on rather than accept they were very very good at doing the form.

Before the last race there were quite a few people around the $600 mark which means they too had obtained almost ALL of the best possible returns up to and including race 8.

Peter its time to get your head out of the sand and do your own form study.

Fours

Offline Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 2399
« 2018-Nov-03, 10:42 PM Reply #9 »
Extraordinary betting drift on Stars Of Carrum today.
Was $6.00 when I logged on this morning and yet started at $18.00.

Had to go looking to see what seemed to be wrong with him but paraded well and traveled beautifully....really good to see the Fiorente's going well.

Not sure what was going on with Seberate.......was it to lay the pace right on for a stablemate or bring down the favourite?

Stewards not overly concerned by it.

It was a strangely run race with the first few runners on the pace having no chance.

It was a interesting day too as there were some races with pace, leaders leaving the fence, battles for the same runs etc.



Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25632
« 2018-Nov-04, 08:01 AM Reply #10 »

Tell us ahead of the race

If the 'pega' has something to say -- please say it before the race and put it all in number order of wining chance, please.

So, you're calling peg a liar?
A bit rich coming from you  :bulb:

Offline pegasyber

  • Group 2
  • User 909
  • Posts: 1478
« 2018-Nov-04, 07:56 PM Reply #11 »
  Peter you obviously have a problem with standard dates and times, but the SPEED Analysis was up on the Forum ten minutes before the race.  That may not be enough time but the excuse was provided.  This showed that #  1  was unlikely to run in the first  ten or worse and ended up coming in 12 th, but the 97%ers could not get enough of him,  what were they thinking, drinking or smoking?.

  Actually if I had properly analysed the race I would have noticed that in a Set Weight race, weight changes are not that important as far as SPEED is concerned, even in a Distance race and of course it was 2500 metres.  Display shows that No 3  and 11  also were  within 3.0 lengths of the top selection. 
 
Quote
VF140817 FL70311F * SPD ORD TABNO [    5   12   16    2    3   11    6    7   13   15    4    9   14    1   10    8   ] T5 HI HIT. USE SPD UPTO 1450m
VF140817 FL70311F * SPD RATNG ORD [  952  952  932  930  924  924 922  912  908  902  892  891  888  871  829  826  ] /1. IN SPEED ORDER
VF140817 FL70311F * AT TRK n DIST SPD [ GL22 GL22 GL22 NC16 FL18 FL18 RW16 FL18 FL18 GL22 MP18 MP18 FL18 RH18 GL14 MV15  ] IN SPD ORD*
VF140817 FL70311F * RQOD SPD RORD [  8.5   8.5   10.9   11.6   13.7   13.7   14.4   18.2  20.8  25.3  37.5  38.7  42.8  90.9  387.7  475.2  ] $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS IN RATING ORDER *


« Last Edit: 2018-Nov-07, 01:47 PM by pegasyber »

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20286
« 2018-Nov-04, 08:10 PM Reply #12 »
I notice the stewards asked questions of the rider on Seberate

Seberate - connections advised would be ridden more forward from the wide gate; led. Cory Parish explained that from the wide barrier, he was instructed to allow his mount to stride forward and try and find a position in the leading group. He further explained that after beginning well and being caught extremely wide in the early stages, he allowed his mount to stride and take up the lead rather than be caught wide. Cory Parish stated that although his mount had gone quick in the early stages, he thought that in the middle stages the colt was striding well within itself at a comfortable. He further explained that he then allowed the tempo to increase from the 1200m, however was a beaten horse in the early part of the straight. Co-trainer Tom Dabernig confirmed the instructions, and was of the opinion that Seberate failed to run out the distance. Stewards informed Cory Parish that in their opinion that after using his mount up to gain the lead in the early stages, he should have given his mount a greater opportunity for respite rather than continuing to quicken from the 1200m. A post race veterinary examination failed to reveal any abnormalities other than a slow recovery.

I don't see how the trainer could conclude that it didn't run out the distance when it ran like a scalded cat from about the half way mark.

Not one word said about the reversal of form of the winner (integrity anyone?)

I know at Caulfield there was no pace but the way he dropped out was not the run of a horse that was a victim of pace IMO. You look at his last 5 starts the Caulfield failure stands out and looking at the SP others thought the same as me.

Offline gunbower

  • Group3
  • User 2463
  • Posts: 794
« 2018-Nov-04, 08:45 PM Reply #13 »
You are probably getting a bit precious again PP . Personally I loved the pace on in the Derby. It certainly found out the usual Waterhouse  "spruik " horse . As far as whether or not the leader ran out the distance ; who cares. As the greatest of all time , J B Cummings often remarked , "they all run the trip but some just run it faster ".

Offline Gintara

  • Group 1
  • User 16
  • Posts: 12209
« 2018-Nov-04, 08:53 PM Reply #14 »

Not one word said about the reversal of form of the winner (integrity anyone?)

I know at Caulfield there was no pace but the way he dropped out was not the run of a horse that was a victim of pace IMO. You look at his last 5 starts the Caulfield failure stands out and looking at the SP others thought the same as me.

Think I heard them say afterwards that the jock felt he didn't handle the track at Caulfield and would improve if they got a drier track  :chin:

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20286
« 2018-Nov-04, 09:36 PM Reply #15 »
Think I heard them say afterwards that the jock felt he didn't handle the track at Caulfield and would improve if they got a drier track  :chin:

Fair enough.

But my comments were on the lack of a mention in the stewards report. I would have thought that the Sydney stewards would have at least asked the trainer for an explanation of the improved performance if it had happened under their auspices. But to say absolutely nothing in an environment where the media have been attacking them on "integrity"   :chin:

They did enquire about stablemate Verry Elleegant and it's 4 length turnaround earlier so you'd expect them to ask about a 7 length turnaround for Extra Brut.

Not saying there was anything untoward but the public record should at least show the stewards are asking about it.

Offline Wenona

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 175
  • Posts: 7315
« 2018-Nov-04, 10:00 PM Reply #16 »
My form guide had the note : Rider - didn't handle going, Vetted - no abnormalities

Offline tontonan

  • Group 2
  • User 106
  • Posts: 3417
« 2018-Nov-05, 12:12 AM Reply #17 »
I was on the winner expecting a repeat of his UCI Stakes win if something went out to annoy Thinkin'Big who I expected to lead.  Seberate delivered an early christmas present with his pacemaking and it made for a much more exciting race IMO. 

The winner's Caulfield failure was pace related although the track would not have helped.  Extra Brut has won 4 of his 6 starts and his two defeats came on soft tracks. 

The new Members Stand has added more drama to the Derby start and has further enhanced the race as Australia's oldest 3YO classic.  With my interest waning in the Melbourne Cup the Derby has become the my highlight race of the Spring and the centre piece of the best and most classy race day on the calendar. 

I love the way the race builds from a clean slate at the start of the season, the big nominations and early markets.  The recently introduced Derby and Oaks Trials and the pumped up Norman Robinson have helped reinforce the lead up program. 

The celebration of the winner's many owners and the great back story of the runners up connections  reminded of the Cup of old.  A genuine Australian classic.

Offline Wenona

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 175
  • Posts: 7315
« 2018-Nov-05, 07:38 AM Reply #18 »
Fair enough.

But my comments were on the lack of a mention in the stewards report. I would have thought that the Sydney stewards would have at least asked the trainer for an explanation of the improved performance if it had happened under their auspices. But to say absolutely nothing in an environment where the media have been attacking them on "integrity"   :chin:

They did enquire about stablemate Verry Elleegant and it's 4 length turnaround earlier so you'd expect them to ask about a 7 length turnaround for Extra Brut.

Not saying there was anything untoward but the public record should at least show the stewards are asking about it.

As a matter of practice do they inquire about a reversal when the reason for the previous failure is noted in the stewards report for that run? Would seem a bit odd to haul people in and ask the question when they've already noted the answer previously.

Offline Gintara

  • Group 1
  • User 16
  • Posts: 12209
« 2018-Nov-05, 01:37 PM Reply #19 »


They did enquire about stablemate Verry Elleegant and it's 4 length turnaround earlier so you'd expect them to ask about a 7 length turnaround for Extra Brut.



Ran the fastest last 600, she settles in the Oaks - she wins.  ;)

Prepare for another perceived form turn around   :lol:


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap