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2018 Caulfield Guineas - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: 2018 Caulfield Guineas  (Read 461 times)

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Offline tontonan

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O.P. « 2018-Oct-09, 03:54 PM »
Caulfield Guineas (1600 METRES)
Of $2,000,000.1st $1,200,000, 2nd $360,000, 3rd $180,000, 4th $90,000, 5th $50,000, 6th $40,000, 7th $40,000, 8th $40,000
GROUP 1  Set Weights, Three-Years-Old, Apprentices cannot claim.

 
No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Hcp Rating
1 111x31 THE AUTUMN SUN Chris Waller James McDonald 5 56.5kg   106
2 56113x3151 NATIVE SOLDIER Darren Weir Ben Allen (a) 4 56.5kg   91
3 2x69880x19 RAGGED RASCAL Paul Perry Dean Yendall 8 56.5kg   75
4 11321 LEONARDO DA HINCHI Darren Weir Brad Rawiller 10 56.5kg   84
5 21035x7644 OUTRAGEOUS Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 7 56.5kg   77
6 11x312 GEM SONG Kris Lees Craig Williams 11 56.5kg   76
7 512x322 MUSWELLBROOK David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Regan Bayliss 1 56.5kg   75
8 211x38 GOOD ’N’ FAST David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Luke Nolen 14 56.5kg   75
9 8511x770 VASSILATOR (NZ) Colin Little Beau Mertens 13 56.5kg   71
10 11x4205 THE AUGUST Brent Stanley Noel Callow 2 56.5kg   72
11 6957x1232 TAVISAN (NZ) Mick Price Michael Walker 9 56.5kg   75
12 2x2322 RANIER James Cummings Damian Lane 15 56.5kg   68
13 4x614 MR EXCLUSIVE Matthew Brown Brian Higgins 3 56.5kg   65
14 4x212 SACCHARO Archie Alexander Jordan Childs 12 56.5kg   62
15 32322x5441 OOHOOD Tony McEvoy Luke Currie 6 54.5kg   104
« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-09, 04:03 PM by tontonan »

Offline tontonan

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« 2018-Oct-09, 04:16 PM Reply #1 »
Poor Oohood. 

Despite the easier Thousand Guineas on the same card Oohood has been accepted for the Caulfield Guineas against the boys. 

A filly has not won the Caulfield Guineas since Surround 42 years ago.  She followed the likes of Wiggle, Storm Queen and Dual Choice, all sensational fillies in their own right.

That didn't stop punters sending Catchy out favorite last year.  She finished third.

Offline Jeunes

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« 2018-Oct-09, 04:33 PM Reply #2 »
Agree re Oohood.

Waller could have a big day or day like Epsom Day a couple of weeks ago.

Offline arakaan

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« 2018-Oct-09, 05:06 PM Reply #3 »
I think the autumn sun is a a bit special. 

The form around it's runs has been strong and but for shocking luck first up it'd be undefeated.

Expect it to win and win well.

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Oct-09, 05:29 PM Reply #4 »
I think the autumn sun is a a bit special. 

The form around it's runs has been strong and but for shocking luck first up it'd be undefeated.

Expect it to win and win well.

Look at the handicappers ratings. The Autumn Sun and Oohood way ahead, and given it is a set weights race the advantage is huge when compared to what they would carry in a 3YO BM race (I've chosen BM85 here).

If the handicappers ratings carry any validity at all this is a deadset match race between Oohood, marginally ahead of The Autumn Sun and daylight third

No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Hcp Rating 3YO BM85 Wgt Disadvantage
1 111x31 THE AUTUMN SUN Chris Waller James McDonald 5 56.5 106 69 12.5
2 56113x3151 NATIVE SOLDIER Darren Weir Ben Allen (a) 4 56.5 91 61.5 5
3 2x69880x19 RAGGED RASCAL Paul Perry Dean Yendall 8 56.5 75 53.5 -3
4 11321 LEONARDO DA HINCHI Darren Weir Brad Rawiller 10 56.5 84 58 1.5
5 21035x7644 OUTRAGEOUS Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 7 56.5 77 54.5 -2
6 11x312 GEM SONG Kris Lees Craig Williams 11 56.5 76 54 -2.5
7 512x322 MUSWELLBROOK David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Regan Bayliss 1 56.5 75 53.5 -3
8 211x38 GOOD ’N’ FAST David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Luke Nolen 14 56.5 75 53.5 -3
9 8511x770 VASSILATOR (NZ) Colin Little Beau Mertens 13 56.5 71 51.5 -5
10 11x4205 THE AUGUST Brent Stanley Noel Callow 2 56.5 72 52 -4.5
11 6957x1232 TAVISAN (NZ) Mick Price Michael Walker 9 56.5 75 53.5 -3
12 2x2322 RANIER James Cummings Damian Lane 15 56.5 68 50 -6.5
13 4x614 MR EXCLUSIVE Matthew Brown Brian Higgins 3 56.5 65 48.5 -8
14 4x212 SACCHARO Archie Alexander Jordan Childs 12 56.5 62 47 -9.5
15 32322x5441 OOHOOD Tony McEvoy Luke Currie 6 54.5 104 68 13.5

We know Oohood can handle Caulfield. If you were going to put an out-of-town jockey on then I suppose The Autumn Sun is in good hands.

(Have been doing a bit of experimentation whereby I take either a set weights race or a set weights with penalties race and compare them with what weight they would have received under the benchmarking system. Did one also for the Kosciusko. Will see how it goes and we might make some rules up as we go along so we can make a million dollars  :) ).

Offline Gintara

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« 2018-Oct-09, 05:48 PM Reply #5 »
I think the autumn sun is a a bit special. 

The form around it's runs has been strong and but for shocking luck first up it'd be undefeated.

Expect it to win and win well.

I think he's more than a bit special   emthup

Native Soldier, LDH & Oohood for the minors

Offline Gintara

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« 2018-Oct-10, 08:43 PM Reply #6 »
Major stud buys half-share in The Autumn Sun


Racenet - 10 October 2018


The Autumn Sun’s stud career has found a starting location after a major Australian stud bought a half-share in the raging Caulfield Guineas favourite.

Arrowfield Stud has announced it has bought 50 percent of The Autumn Sun from owner Hermitage Thoroughbreds for an undisclosed sum.

Arrowfield Stud boss John Messara confirmed the deal via a press release on Wednesday afternoon. Messara will also take over the management of the rest of The Autumn Sun’s racing career.

“I am very pleased to join Hermitage in the ownership of The Autumn Sun to race him and then develop his breeding career," Messara said in a statement.

“It just seems Arrowfield is the rightful place for this colt’s future at stud – after all, we bred and sold him in partnership with The Aga Khan Studs, and we launched and stood his champion sire and grand-sire.

“He has physique, athleticism and pedigree, all of the highest order, and I couldn’t be more excited about the prospect of standing him at Arrowfield.”

The Autumn Sun fetched $700,000 as a yearling but has already won more than $1.1m in his five starts in a career that includes a Group I win at two in the JJ Atkins and at three in the Golden Rose.

The Autumn Sun is an odds-on favourite to add a third Group I win in Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas.

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Oct-10, 09:36 PM Reply #7 »
A word of warning about the Caulfield Guineas and upset results.

It is a race notorious for roughies - not unlike the Sires Produce in Sydney.

You have a lot of young horses untried over the distance** added to the fact that Caulfield is one of those courses where if you are not in the right position approaching the home turn then your race might be over.

This year however there are only 6 of the remaining 14 runners (at this stage) who are untried over the distance.

Of the 8 who are tried over the distance, The Autumn Sun (1/1), Leonardo De Hinchi (1/1), Good 'N' Fast (1/1) and Oohood (1/1) have won over the distance.

Muswellbrook (Fernhill) and Gem Song (Dulcify) have been placed in stakes races over the distance.

The Autumn Sun picks himself.

Oohood always runs in the best of company of her peers at set weights and is rarely beaten far and won the Flight Stakes last start. Maid Of Heaven was beaten 1.2 lengths by Ohood in that race and came out and franked the form winning the G1 Champion Stakes against the boys.

It is hard to come up with a scenario where Oohood does not figure in the finish somewhere.


** it works both ways. Sometimes the untried horses over the distance get to display that they are better as the distances get longer and some find it a furlong too far.

Offline arakaan

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« 2018-Oct-13, 04:17 PM Reply #8 »
On to the the Plate I hope.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2018-Oct-13, 04:18 PM Reply #9 »
Great win.

  :noteworthy:   :noteworthy:

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-13, 04:24 PM Reply #10 »
On to the the Plate I hope.

They stuffed up by not taking Lonhro there. This bloke should

Online Brian Mc

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« 2018-Oct-13, 04:50 PM Reply #11 »
There have been some great horses who have won this race but few as well as this one.  It reminded this old-timer of Tulloch's win 71years ago.  (I was in Sydney that day but listened to the race on radio.)

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2018-Oct-13, 05:28 PM Reply #12 »
61 Brian.

Offline timw

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« 2018-Oct-13, 05:38 PM Reply #13 »
Possibly best win since Manikato belted Karaman (literally) but query whether either as good as the day Our Poetic Prince was robbed blind. 

Offline Shogun Lodge

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« 2018-Oct-13, 05:40 PM Reply #14 »
As good as his dad.
Unbeweevable.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2018-Oct-13, 05:40 PM Reply #15 »
the day Our Poetic Prince was robbed blind.


Remind us :chin:

Offline Jeunes

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« 2018-Oct-13, 05:50 PM Reply #16 »
3 G1s now.

Waller Team needs him as after Winx, there is a huge depth issue in regards to G1 performers in his stable.

He had Fiesta, D’Argento, Shilleagh, Unforgetten and Noire trying to win G1s today and none got close.

Waller will put him away because if he runs in the Cox Plate, it could be a gut buster for the future. The other choice is freshen up for the Coolmore.

Online pwa54

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« 2018-Oct-13, 07:11 PM Reply #17 »
Quote
There have been some great horses who have won this race but few as well as this one.  It reminded this old-timer of Tulloch's win 71years ago.  (I was in Sydney that day but listened to the race on radio.

Can't go back that far, Brian Mc, but reminded me of Sobar's win in 1972. Still a little bit green but an awesome win. 

Offline Shogun Lodge

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« 2018-Oct-14, 04:52 PM Reply #18 »
When his father overpowered Testa Rossa, I thought wow, what a horse.
When he straightened yesterday for a few strides he was sooo like Redoutes...had them covered just jogging into his let down then boom...head out, low, perfection...eased down.
No Testa there yesterday but wow!
Future champion stallion.
We saw greatness yesti.

Online nemisis

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« 2018-Oct-14, 05:21 PM Reply #19 »
When his father overpowered Testa Rossa, I thought wow, what a horse.
When he straightened yesterday for a few strides he was sooo like Redoutes...had them covered just jogging into his let down then boom...head out, low, perfection...eased down.
No Testa there yesterday but wow!
Future champion stallion.
We saw greatness yesti.
I agree with everything you say.

He has just got that magic about him that his father had, right down to some of his markings.

Redoute's Choice did so much as a very young horse you do wonder what he would have achieved if allowed to mature.

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Oct-14, 05:46 PM Reply #20 »
Agreed, the way he levels out at top speed looks very special.


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