2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov  (Read 12991 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline firezuki

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 259
  • Posts: 16798
« 2018-Oct-15, 04:35 PM Reply #25 »
Like the mare I managed to kill, just after the winning post 1st time round, a few years back....now my early spruik Hamada
is deceased after trackwork?
Bugger...
Yucatan?


I was mightily impressed with the Herbert Power win so this guy is topping my list at the moment.


Long way to go yet and much study to do closer to time. 

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4368
« 2018-Oct-15, 06:11 PM Reply #26 »

How long since punters got a fair go in Cup week?

I simply ask my admirers to put more money down this mine shaft come 6 November -- and put the rest on any and all of the other races on that day and 'cr'oaks day'.

Offline Shogun Lodge

  • Group 2
  • User 352
  • Posts: 3055
« 2018-Oct-15, 08:16 PM Reply #27 »
Yep Zukes, it was like" did you bloody see that?"
That sustained move from basically last,  into 3rd , from like 1400 out to 400 out, then to kick away like that...'sheet' as the Mexicans drawl.
Where do I find sectionals..that race needs lookin at, as to the eye that was freakish. :yes:
Whomever backed him on Sat would have had a lovely ride and that warm incredible rush an "out of this world kicked their far king heads in " win gives you.

Offline sobig

  • Group 2
  • User 583
  • Posts: 3451
« 2018-Oct-15, 08:21 PM Reply #28 »

Offline firezuki

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 259
  • Posts: 16798
« 2018-Oct-15, 09:03 PM Reply #29 »
Yep Zukes, it was like" did you bloody see that?"
That sustained move from basically last,  into 3rd , from like 1400 out to 400 out, then to kick away like that...'sheet' as the Mexicans drawl.
Where do I find sectionals..that race needs lookin at, as to the eye that was freakish. :yes:
Whomever backed him on Sat would have had a lovely ride and that warm incredible rush an "out of this world kicked their far king heads in " win gives you.


Ran 2.26.47 - faster than Tulloch.  And eased to the point that he could have been penalised by the stewards for stopping so quickly.


Cannot believe that time coupled with the ridiculous ease of the win.


Looks to be able to race anywhere in the field.  Has the turn of foot required and relaxes.


Going to have to look very hard from here on in to supplant him as my main thrust. 


FYI, his stablemate finished nicely in the Caulfied Stakes behind Benbatl. 


Any idea whom the stable thinks is the better?


Offline firezuki

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 259
  • Posts: 16798
« 2018-Oct-15, 09:14 PM Reply #30 »
I see he is out of the Caulfield Cup and will go to either the Cox Plate or Mooney Valley Cup a week later.


Would he take on Winks?

Offline sobig

  • Group 2
  • User 583
  • Posts: 3451
« 2018-Oct-15, 10:34 PM Reply #31 »
Latest is probably straight into the MC.

Currently 24 in order of entry which should mean he gets in as several above are bound to pull out.

Offline Shogun Lodge

  • Group 2
  • User 352
  • Posts: 3055
« 2018-Oct-16, 09:13 AM Reply #32 »
Thank God for that.
The anxiety, probably unwarranted, of having him in the Cox Plate, is something I do not need.   :lol:  
Oh yea of little faith I hear em say....   :lol:  
PS thanks for sectionals link, So big.  emthup
« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-16, 09:20 AM by Shogun Lodge »

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25632
« 2018-Oct-21, 08:49 AM Reply #33 »
Given what we saw yesterday there is really only one other piece of the puzzle.

Magic Circle. I wonder how heís settled in

Offline Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 2399
« 2018-Oct-21, 09:43 AM Reply #34 »
Melbourne Cup Winning Horse Weight 1972-2017

2017 Rekindling 51.5

2016 Almandin 52

2015 Prince of Penzance 53

2014 Protectionist 56.5

2013 Fiorente 55

2012 Green Moon 53.5

2011 Dunaden 54.5

2010 Americain 54.5

2009 Shocking 51

2008 Viewed 53

2007 Efficient 54.5

2006 Delta Blues 56

2005 Makybe Diva 58

2004 Makybe Diva 55.5

2003 Makybe Diva 52

2002 Media Puzzle 52.5

2001 Ethereal 52

2000 Brew 49

1999 Rogan Josh 53.5

1998 Jezabeel 53

1997 Might and Power 56

1996 Saintly 55.5

1995 Doriemus 54.5

1994 Jeune 56.5

1993 Vintage Crop 55.5

1992 Subzero 54.5

1991 Let's Elope 51

1990 Kingston Rule 53

1989 Tawriffic 54

1988 Empire Rose 53.5

1987 Kensei 51.5

1986 At Talaq 54.5

1985 What a Nuisance 52.5

1984 Black Knight 50

1983 Kiwi 52
« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-21, 11:11 AM by Jeunes »

Offline Gintara

  • Group 1
  • User 16
  • Posts: 12209
« 2018-Oct-21, 11:07 AM Reply #35 »
Melbourne Cup Winning Horse Weight 1972-2017

2017 Rekindling 51.5

2016 Almandin 52

2015 Prince of Penzance 53

2014 Protectionist 56.5

2013 Fiorente 55

2012 Green Moon 53.5

2011 Dunaden 54.5

2010 Americain 54.5

2009 Shocking 51

2008 Viewed 53

2007 Efficient 54.5

2006 Delta Blues 56

2005 Makybe Diva 58

2004 Makybe Diva 55.5

2003 Makybe Diva 52

2002 Media Puzzle 52.5

2001 Ethereal 52

2000 Brew 55.5  :what:

1999 Rogan Josh 53.5

1998 Jezabeel 53

1997 Might and Power 56

1996 Saintly 55.5

1995 Doriemus 54.5

1994 Jeune 56.5

1993 Vintage Crop 55.5

1992 Subzero 54.5

1991 Let's Elope 51

1990 Kingston Rule 53

1989 Tawriffic 54

1988 Empire Rose 53.5

1987 Kensei 51.5

1986 At Talaq 54.5

1985 What a Nuisance 52.5

1984 Black Knight 50

1983 Kiwi 52

Look at the quality of horse who's carried 55kg or above to win  :o

Offline Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 2399
« 2018-Oct-21, 11:10 AM Reply #36 »
I think Brew is wrong as I got it from external source. It is 49kgs and I adjusted the post.

The quality of winners over 55kgs is high but also contemplate those who have tried and failed with the weights over that limit.
« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-21, 11:13 AM by Jeunes »

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20286
« 2018-Oct-21, 02:16 PM Reply #37 »
TAB/Tatts Fixed Market 21/10/18

There are 18 horses under 50-1.

2 of these, Youngstar and Kings Will Dream, are at $17 and $26 respectively.

In other words the bookies have quantified the chance of an Australia winner at 9.73%. But we are using their 300% markets which means in reality closer to 3.2% chance.

I'll have to drag out the Aussie Melbourne Cup thread. Pretty sure we will have at least 3 runners this year - hopefully one or two more.


Bet Win Odds Place Odds
YUCATAN IRE $7.00 $2.50
BEST SOLUTION $9.00 $3.00
AVILIUS $11.00 $3.50
MAGIC CIRCLE $11.00 $3.50
LATROBE $13.00 $4.00
WITHHOLD $13.00 $4.00
THE CLIFFSOFMOHER $17.00 $5.00
CROSS COUNTER $17.00 $5.00
DURETTO $17.00 $5.00
HOMESMAN $17.00 $5.00
MUNTAHAA $17.00 $5.00
ROSTROPOVICH $17.00 $5.00
YOUNGSTAR $17.00 $5.00
FINCHE $26.00 $7.25
KINGS WILL DREAM $26.00 $7.25
MARMELO $26.00 $7.25
A PRINCE OF ARRAN $26.00 $7.25
RED VERDON $26.00 $7.25
ACE HIGH $51.00 $14.00
BIG DUKE $51.00 $14.00
CHESTNUT COAT $51.00 $14.00
IDAHO $51.00 $14.00
JAAMEH $51.00 $14.00
NAKEETA $51.00 $14.00
PATRICK ERIN $51.00 $14.00
RED CARDINAL $51.00 $14.00
SOUND CHECK $51.00 $14.00
THE TAJ MAHAL $51.00 $14.00
THINKIN BIG $51.00 $14.00
TOSEN BASIL $51.00 $14.00
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN $51.00 $14.00
YOGI $51.00 $14.00
AUVRAY $101.00 $26.00
BRIMHAM ROCKS $101.00 $26.00
CASTERTON $101.00 $26.00
EGG TART $101.00 $26.00
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN $101.00 $26.00
HARIPOUR $101.00 $26.00
HUMIDOR $101.00 $26.00
JON SNOW $101.00 $26.00
LIBRAN $101.00 $26.00
LORD FANDANGO $101.00 $26.00
MASTER OF REALITY $101.00 $26.00
MIDTERM $101.00 $26.00
MISS ADMIRATION $101.00 $26.00
NIGHTS WATCH $101.00 $26.00
NORTHWEST PASSAGE $101.00 $26.00
ODEON $101.00 $26.00
ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN $101.00 $26.00
OUR VENICE BEACH $101.00 $26.00
PRIZE MONEY $101.00 $26.00
RISING RED $101.00 $26.00
RUNAWAY $101.00 $26.00
SIN TO WIN $101.00 $26.00
SIR CHARLES ROAD $101.00 $26.00
SIXTIES GROOVE $101.00 $26.00
SOLE IMPACT $101.00 $26.00
SULLY $101.00 $26.00
THE LORD MAYOR $101.00 $26.00
THE PENTAGON $101.00 $26.00
TRAP FOR FOOLS $101.00 $26.00
VENGEUR MASQUE $101.00 $26.00
VENTURA STORM $101.00 $26.00
VIN DE DANCE $101.00 $26.00
WALL OF FIRE $101.00 $26.00
AZURO $201.00 $51.00
DAL HARRAILD $201.00 $51.00
HARRISON $201.00 $51.00
HIGH BRIDGE $201.00 $51.00
HUSH WRITER $201.00 $51.00
KELLSTORM $201.00 $51.00
LUVALUVA $201.00 $51.00
MEGABLAST $201.00 $51.00
MIGHTY BOSS $201.00 $51.00
OPPOSITION $201.00 $51.00
ORMITO $201.00 $51.00
PENTATHLON $201.00 $51.00
REZEALIENT $201.00 $51.00
ZACADA $201.00 $51.00
ILWENDO $301.00 $76.00
MASTER ZEPHYR $301.00 $76.00
ROMANESQUE $301.00 $76.00

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20286
« 2018-Oct-21, 02:17 PM Reply #38 »
Actually Kings Will Dream is not a dinky di Aussie. Originally raced in Great Britain.

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25632
« 2018-Oct-21, 04:50 PM Reply #39 »
Surely who shot the barman has to go around again  :lol:

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20286
« 2018-Oct-21, 04:54 PM Reply #40 »
Surely who shot the barman has to go around again  :lol:

New Zealander.

Online arthur

  • Group 2
  • User 446
  • Posts: 2563
« 2018-Oct-21, 08:14 PM Reply #41 »
Sponsored by the on course bookies for the 'daytime-nite-clubbers' to back  :shutup:

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20286
« 2018-Oct-24, 04:36 PM Reply #42 »
Withhold bleeds, Runaway triumphs

The Melbourne Cup dream for connections of English galloper Withhold is over after the well-supported galloper bled from both nostrils to attract an automatic racing ban after being unplaced in Wednesday's Geelong Cup.

The huge Roger Charlton-trained stayer, who was heavily supported into $3.20 to win the $350,000 Cup on Wednesday on the back of excellent staying form in the UK this year, has had his Australian campaign terminated as he will be banned from racing for three months.

Withhold, who wound-up in eighth place, had been up among the favourites for the Melbourne Cup for some time but he was one of several flops in Wednesday's Cup which was won bravely by the VRC St Leger Stakes winner Runaway.

After settling on the speed, Runaway ($16) sustained a long sprint to outstay his rivals and win by three-quarters of a length to Northwest Passage ($9.50), with the same margin to Finche ($4.80), who worked home well in the imported horse's first run for new trainer Chris Waller.

The win of Runaway could improve his position in the order of entry into the Melbourne Cup but, with 50.5kg and 49th in order in the big one, is unlikely to attract anywhere near the type of penalty that could elevate him into the final field of 24, meaning he may have to go through the Hotham Handicap on Derby deal to seal a Cup spot.


https://www.racing.com/news/2018-10-24/review-withhold-bleeds-runaway-triumphs

Offline Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 2399
« 2018-Oct-24, 09:18 PM Reply #43 »
PP, might be asking too much but any chance of you updating original post with latest odds and order of entry.

Call me lazy but scrolling through the posts or googling it at times is annoying as some sites donít update.

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20286
« 2018-Oct-25, 09:25 AM Reply #44 »
PP, might be asking too much but any chance of you updating original post with latest odds and order of entry.

Call me lazy but scrolling through the posts or googling it at times is annoying as some sites donít update.

Latest Order Of Entry now in the OP Jeunes.

Not enough screen real estate for the odds. I'll post them on this thread a bit later.

  Last 10 Horse Sex Age Trainer Ballot Weight
1 x3195x1111 BEST SOLUTION (IRE) H 5 Saeed Bin Suroor 1 57.5kg
2 x3326x1111 AVILIUS (GB) G 5 James Cummings 2 54.5kg
3 4184x81733 HUMIDOR (NZ) G 6 Darren Weir 3 58kg
4 5462x02410 ACE HIGH H 4 David Payne 4 55kg
5 x512433x43 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE) H 5 Aidan O'Brien 5 56.5kg
6 2x221172 LATROBE (IRE) H 4 Joseph O'Brien 6 52kg
7 45x8145335 OUR IDAHO (IRE) H 6 Aidan O'Brien 7 56kg
8 57x150x11x MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) G 7 Ian Williams 8 56kg
9 1x6731x769 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) G 10 Chris Waller 9 55.5kg
10 2x3x56x020 TOSEN BASIL (JPN) H 7 Darren Weir 10 55.5kg
11 1796x4341x MUNTAHAA (IRE) G 6 John Gosden 11 55.5kg
12 5x211250x0 CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) H 5 Yoshito Yahagi 12 55.5kg
13 144x1132x0 SOUND (GER) M 6 Michael Moroney 13 55.5kg
14 13x4192251 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) H 4 Aidan O'Brien 14 51kg
15 1x69x2112x MARMELO (GB) H 6 Hughie Morrison 15 55kg
16 041x8x7915 THE TAJ MAHAL (IRE) H 5 Liam Howley 16 55kg
17 11x24112x CROSS COUNTER (GB) G 4 Charlie Appleby 17 51kg
18 11113x6327 YOUNGSTAR M 4 Chris Waller 18 51.5kg
19 00521x5333 EGG TART M 5 Chris Waller 19 53kg
20 3x15x53314 DURETTO (GB) G 7 Andrew Balding 20 54.5kg
21 2x436013x1 YUCATAN IRE (IRE) H 5 Aidan O'Brien 21 54.5kg
22 1443x00500 BIG DUKE (IRE) G 7 Darren Weir 22 54kg
23 21x05x4059 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) G 7 Michael Moroney 23 54kg
24 1x5x0x0803 RED CARDINAL (IRE) G 7 Darren Weir 24 54kg
25 56164x5266 AUVRAY (FR) G 8 Richard Freedman 25 54kg
26 1x14222250 RED VERDON (USA) H 6 Ed Dunlop 26 54kg
27 313x655x1x FINCHE (GB) H 5 Chris Waller 27 54kg
28 37829x7940 VENTURA STORM (IRE) G 6 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 28 54kg
29 53x16x2172 HOMESMAN (USA) G 5 Liam Howley 29 53kg
30 158402x008 ZACADA (NZ) G 6 Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman 30 53kg
31 14513x0147 SIR CHARLES ROAD G 5 Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott 31 53kg
32 x1x5x00577 NAKEETA (GB) G 8 Iain Jardine 32 53kg
33 2121x31x1x WITHHOLD (GB) G 6 Roger Charlton 33 53kg
34 32x03705x0 SOLE IMPACT (JPN) H 7 Hirofumi Toda 34 53kg
35 1111x43236 KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE) G 5 Darren Weir 35 53kg
36 110328x277 OUR VENICE BEACH (IRE) H 5 Liam Howley 36 53kg
37 9337x35107 MISS ADMIRATION M 4 Mick Price 37 50kg
38 x2188632x3 A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) G 6 Charlie Fellowes 38 53kg
39 8x420x8378 LIBRAN (IRE) G 8 Chris Waller 39 53kg
40 x9066x9x39 PRIZE MONEY (GB) G 6 Saeed Bin Suroor 40 52.5kg
41 31105x0248 GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) H 6 Darren Weir 41 52.5kg
42 4x39770x36 LORD FANDANGO (GER) H 6 Archie Alexander 42 52.5kg
43 432x80x562 SULLY (NZ) G 4 Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young 43 51kg
44 8x16313x50 MEGABLAST (NZ) G 7 Darren Weir 44 52.5kg
45 x6x10x2468 DAL HARRAILD (GB) G 6 Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 45 52.5kg
46 248x220x04 WALL OF FIRE (IRE) H 6 Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 46 52.5kg
47 03x60x8642 ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN (IRE) R 7 Chris Waller 47 52.5kg
48 114656x641 PATRICK ERIN (NZ) G 7 Chris Waller 48 52kg
49 0231130x34 RUNAWAY R 4 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 49 50.5kg
50 512226x960 REZEALIENT G 4 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 50 50.5kg
51 x04331x220 RISING RED (NZ) G 5 Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young 51 51kg
52 361x16246x CASTERTON (IRE) H 5 Chris Waller 52 51kg
53 x049632x0x PENTATHLON (NZ) G 7 John Wheeler 53 51kg
54 6427x34535 ODEON (NZ) G 5 Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra 54 51kg
55 31119x4584 NORTHWEST PASSAGE G 5 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 55 50.5kg
56 1x22x33222 BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) G 5 Chris Waller 56 50kg
57 462L1x3300 SIN TO WIN (NZ) G 6 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 57 50kg
58 x4421x2263 YOGI (NZ) G 6 Darren Weir 58 50kg
59 0x71491117 HARIPOUR (IRE) H 5 Darren Weir 59 50kg
60 2333240x68 ORMITO (GER) G 6 Darren Weir 60 50kg
61 33x1x61812 JAAMEH (IRE) G 6 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 61 50kg
62 6164x0x025 MIDTERM (GB) G 6 Liam Howley 62 50kg
63 x31x0x1147 HIGH BRIDGE (GB) G 8 Chris Waller 63 50kg
64 9x00640671 KELLSTORM (IRE) H 6 Darren Weir 64 50kg
65 x780x00690 MIGHTY BOSS H 4 Mick Price 65 53.5kg
66 16x6321175 TRAP FOR FOOLS G 5 Jarrod McLean 66 53kg
67 141x213160 NIGHTíS WATCH (NZ) G 5 Darren Weir 67 52kg
68 x6110x4850 LUVALUVA (NZ) M 4 John Sargent 68 50kg
69 0x55211x31 SIXTIES GROOVE (IRE) G 6 Darren Weir 69 50.5kg
70 12x0873521 AZURO (FR) G 5 Darren Weir 70= 50kg
71 0x621x4520 HARRISON (GB) G 6 Liam Howley 70= 50kg
72 331x0312 ILWENDO (GER) H 5 Matthew Smith 70= 50kg
73 811725 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) H 4 Joseph O'Brien 70= 50kg
74 1x99574641 MASTER ZEPHYR (GB) G 7 Darren Weir 70= 50kg
75 4x02x67503 OPPOSITION (GB) G 6 Chris Waller 70= 50kg
76 2230x02590 ROMANESQUE (IRE) H 6 Jarrod McLean 70= 50kg
77 6400x01190 THE LORD MAYOR (NZ) G 4 Chris Waller 70= 50kg
78 1x3x338550 THE PENTAGON (IRE) H 4 Aidan O'Brien 70= 50kg
79 131131 THINKINí BIG C 3 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 70= 49kg

Offline Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 2399
« 2018-Oct-25, 09:59 AM Reply #45 »
Thanks PP.

It will be interesting to see who drops out this week as the lower weights will struggle to get in unless they win the qualifying race over the next two weeks.


Offline specialweek2

  • Group 2
  • User 1631
  • Posts: 1944
« 2018-Oct-25, 11:55 AM Reply #46 »
Latrobe out, yes.

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25632
« 2018-Oct-25, 02:58 PM Reply #47 »
Didnt like Latrobe myself.
 Not much room for others to sneak 8n with only egg tart likely to miss

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20286
« 2018-Oct-25, 03:43 PM Reply #48 »
Thanks guys.

In the Opening Post (OP) I have greyed out Latrobe and Withhold (who bled in the Geelong Cup).

Let me know of any others.

I would be surprised if Ace High runs after he weakened out of the Caulfield Cup.

Big Duke sadly seems to be a shadow of his best this campaign.

Offline Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 2399
« 2018-Oct-27, 06:32 PM Reply #49 »
After today, other than having a runner in the Melbourne Cup, below horses in current top 24 should be looking at the competitiveness of their horses.

Big Duke
Egg Tart
Taj Mahal

We will know by Oct 29 when the next lot of declarations will be in.

A couple of good runs in Cox Plate too but not sure what happened to Kings Dream.


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap