Racehorse TALK

Thoroughbred Racing Talk => Racing Talk => Topic started by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Aug-05, 05:11 AM

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Aug-05, 05:11 AM
Race 7 - 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES)

Of $7,050,000.1st $4,000,000, 2nd $1,000,000, 3rd $500,000, 4th $300,000, 5th $200,000, 6th $150,000, 7th $150,000, 8th $150,000, 9th $150,000, 10th $150,000, 11th $150,000, 12th $150,000

FINAL RESULT

Finish No. Horse Trainer Jockey Margin Bar. Weight
1 23 CROSS COUNTER (GB) Charlie Appleby Kerrin McEvoy
19 51kg
2 9 MARMELO (GB) Hughie Morrison Hugh Bowman 1L 10 55kg
3 17 A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie Fellowes Michael Walker 3L 20 53kg
4 13 FINCHE (GB) Chris Waller Zac Purton 3.5L 15 54kg
5 24 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Wayne Lordan 4.5L 21 51kg
6 22 YOUNGSTAR Chris Waller Craig Williams 5.75L 8 51.5kg
7 19 SIR CHARLES ROAD Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott Dwayne Dunn 8.25L 14 53kg
8 1 BEST SOLUTION (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor Pat Cosgrave 8.75L 6 57.5kg
9 5 MUNTAHAA (IRE) John Gosden Jim Crowley 9.5L 13 55.5kg
10 16 VENTURA STORM (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Mark Zahra 11L 7 54kg (cd 54.5kg)
11 11 YUCATAN (IRE) Aidan O'Brien James McDonald 11.75L 23 54.5kg
12 18 NAKEETA (GB) Iain Jardine Regan Bayliss 11.85L 3 53kg
13 20 ZACADA (NZ) Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman Damian Lane 13.85L 24 53kg
14 4 CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) Yoshito Yahagi Yuga Kawada 16.1L 4 55.5kg
15 15 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) Michael Moroney Patrick Moloney 16.3L 2 54kg
16 3 MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) Ian Williams Corey Brown 19.55L 17 56kg
17 7 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) Chris Waller Ben Melham 22.55L 18 55.5kg
18 6 SOUND CHECK (GER) Michael Moroney Jordan Childs 27.55L 16 55.5kg
19 21 RUNAWAY Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Stephen Baster 28.05L 12 52kg
20 8 ACE HIGH David Payne Tye Angland 28.15L 22 55kg
21 12 AUVRAY (FR) Richard Freedman Tommy Berry 68.15L 1 54kg
22 10 AVILIUS (GB) James Cummings Glyn Schofield 69.15L 11 54.5kg
23 14 RED CARDINAL (IRE) Darren Weir Damien Oliver 69.55L 5 54kg
FF 2 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Ryan Moore
9 56.5kg
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Aug-05, 05:21 AM
Lexus are a new sponsor this year and have created a Gold Cup worth $200,000.

It is currently doing the tour round the country and will even be on show at the famous Louth Cup meeting (near Bourke) on August 11th

https://www.lexus.com.au/about-lexus/news/lexus-melbourne-cup-tour-destinations-announced

Just got back from the UK, Ireland and NZ.


(https://s8.postimg.cc/4r059yzg1/lexus_mcup.png) (https://postimg.cc/image/4r059yzg1/)
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Aug-05, 05:23 AM
From The Wizard Of Odds newsletter

Tosen Basil, Admire Robson and Cassius are bound for the Darren Weir stable, while Happy Moment and Danon Roman will join fellow Japanese import Ambitious at Anthony Freedman's stable.

Cups contender Tosen Basil is the headline act having finished sixth in Japan's premier two-mile race, the Tenno Sho, at his last appearance. A lightly-raced six-year-old, he finished third to Highland Reel in the Group One Hong Kong Vase three starts back.

Happy Moment and sprinter-miler Cassius have raced exclusively in Group company in Japan over the past 12 months, while Admire Robson, who has been unplaced just once in nine starts, and Danon Roman show staying talent.

Waterhouse and Bott take over the training of Hush Writer hoping the northern hemisphere-bred three-year-old can emulate last year's Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling. Placed in all three starts in France, including last month's Group Two Prix Hocquart, Hush Writer is likely to begin his spring campaign in September.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Aug-25, 11:33 AM
https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/news/australian-racing/melbourne-cup-international-horses-preview/464313
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Aug-25, 11:51 AM
Who they have on their list.

Chestnut Coat
Count Octave
Cross Counter
Hamada
Latrobe
Magic Circle
Marmelo
Mirage Dancer
Prince Of Arran
Red Verdon
Sole Impact
Torcedor
Tosen Basil*
Thomas Hobson
Withhold
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-25, 12:55 PM
Best of Days not in the list but is probably considered a local after having 1 run here already.
It wasn’t in any markets so I rang beteasy for a price. They put it in at $51.
I was hoping for better given that they hadn’t even considered it :mad:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Aug-25, 01:11 PM
Best of Days not in the list but is probably considered a local after having 1 run here already.
It wasn’t in any markets so I rang beteasy for a price. They put it in at $51.
I was hoping for better given that they hadn’t even considered it :mad:

Caulfield Cup would be more his go.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Aug-26, 11:55 AM
Key Dates

First Nominations Fee $1650 Tuesday (Midday) August 28
Late Nominations Fee $5500 Tuesday (Midday) September 4
Handicaps Declared
Tuesday (Midday) September 11
First Declarations Fee $2640 Tuesday (Midday) October 9
Second Declarations Fee $4620 Monday (10am) October 29
Final Declarations Fee $49,500 Saturday (4.30pm) November 3
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Aug-26, 11:56 AM
Not cheap.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Aug-26, 11:58 AM
Not cheap.

I think the Derby Winner fee is significantly higher???
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Aug-26, 12:02 PM
Have got 3 Cups markets into a program and doing some scouting around for anomalies before the final noms closed - at which point I think the markets will start to look a lot the same.

Have taken the markets of TABCorp (via Tatts), Ladbrokes and Sportsbet.

First calculation I did threw up a surprise - happy to be corrected if not accurate:

Ladbrokes Market = 282.84%
TABCorp Market   = 286.79%
Sportsbet Market = 239.92%

That is a significant difference if right.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Aug-29, 07:53 PM
Yeah 280% is in the f***ing bastards range while 230% is only in the bastards range.   :biggrin:

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: arthur on 2018-Aug-29, 09:24 PM
 230% is too bad at this stage . .

Cut them a bit of slack . . they are trying to provide a service, but are also running a business

My guess is that the 'tough money' would far outweigh the 'chaff' atm



If you don't like the prices . . vote with your feet

And I am no apologist for the corps
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Aug-30, 03:23 PM
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Sep-04, 09:25 PM
http://newspaper.racingpost.com/html5/reader/get_clipping.aspx?edid=6d2e43f5-3a77-43a2-8783-7fd76372c6d2&pnum=95&timestamp=20180904122442637
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Sep-12, 02:48 AM
Horse Ladbrokes TAB
Magic Circle 13.00 14
Torcedor 13.00 14
Chestnut Coat 15.00 26
Kings Will Dream 15.00 10
Best Solution 21.00 26
Count Octave 21.00 26
Hamada 21.00 21
Muntahaa 21.00 21
Tosen Basil 21.00 26
Withhold 21.00 17
Cross Counter 26.00 17
Marmelo 26.00 26
Ace High 31.00 26
Big Duke 31.00 51
Weekender 31.00 26
Ambitious 41.00 51
Auvray 41.00 51
Avilius 41.00 26
Bonneval 41.00 101
Cliffs Of Moher 41.00 26
Comin' Through 41.00 201
Deauville 41.00 51
Duretto 41.00 51
Emotionless 41.00 51
Finche 41.00 51
Grunt 41.00 51
Harlem 41.00 101
Homesman 41.00 34
Humidor 41.00 51
Idaho 41.00 101
Lancaster Bomber 41.00 51
Our Venice Beach 41.00 26
Red Cardinal 41.00 51
Red Verdon 41.00 101
Sound Check 41.00 26
The Taj Mahal 41.00 51
Vengeur Masque 41.00 51
Ventura Storm 41.00 51
Who Shot Thebarman 41.00 51
Yogi 41.00 34
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Sep-13, 01:50 PM
.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Sep-13, 02:11 PM
1   0x4184x81x   HUMIDOR (NZ)   G   6   Darren Weir   1   58kg
2   x3195x111x   BEST SOLUTION (IRE)   H   5   Saeed Bin Suroor   2   57.5kg
3   41x329113x   KEW GARDENS (IRE)   H   4   Aidan O'Brien   3   53kg
4   5x22x0132x   TORCEDOR (IRE)   G   7   Andreas Wohler   4   57kg
5   x55462x02x   ACE HIGH   H   4   David Payne   5   55kg
6   78x512433x   CLIFFS OF MOHER (IRE)   H   5   Aidan O'Brien   6   56.5kg
7   2x22117x           LATROBE (IRE)   H   4   Joseph O'Brien   7   52kg
8   45x814533x   IDAHO (IRE)   H   6   Aidan O'Brien   8   56kg
9   111x1160x9   BONNEVAL (NZ)   M   5   Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman   9   54.5kg
10   57x150x11x   MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE)   G   7   Ian Williams   10   56kg
11   4491x6731x   WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ)   G   10   Chris Waller   11   55.5kg
12   1x68139x4x   JON SNOW (NZ)   H   5   Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman   12   55.5kg
13   8x72x3x56x   TOSEN BASIL (JPN)   H   7   Darren Weir   13   55.5kg
14   1x0121x61x   UNFORGOTTEN   M   4   Chris Waller   14   52.5kg
15   1796x4341x   MUNTAHAA (IRE)   G   6   John Gosden   15   55.5kg
16   15x211250x   CHESTNUT COAT (JPN)   H   5   Yoshito Yahagi   16   55.5kg
17   x0x92834x6   AMBITIOUS (JPN)   H   7   Anthony Freedman   17   55.5kg
18   2144x1132x   SOUND CHECK (GER)   H   6   Michael Moroney   18   55.5kg
19   13x419225x   ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)   H   4   Aidan O'Brien   19   51kg
20   35x463144x   VIN DE DANCE (NZ)   G   4   Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman   20   53.5kg
21   1x69x2112x   MARMELO (GB)   H   6   Hughie Morrison   21   55kg
22   11x24112x   CROSS COUNTER (GB)   G   4   Charlie Appleby   22   51kg
23   25041x8x7x   THE TAJ MAHAL (IRE)   H   5   Liam Howley   23   55kg
24   x22x132x2x   WEEKENDER (GB)   H   5   John Gosden   24   55kg
25   151x35011x   FLAG OF HONOUR (IRE)   H   4   Aidan O'Brien   25   51kg
26   7x623x2x1x   EMOTIONLESS (IRE)   G   6   Charlie Appleby   26   55kg
27   0x22525x0x   SINGLE GAZE   M   6   Chris Waller   27   53kg
28   x311113x6x   YOUNGSTAR   M   4   Chris Waller   28   51.5kg
29   x400521x5x   EGG TART   M   5   Chris Waller   29   53kg
30   45221x111x   MATERIAL MAN   G   7   Justin Warwick   30   54.5kg
31   343x312x60   HIYAAM (NZ)   M   4   Mick Price   31   51.5kg
32   3x15x5331x   DURETTO (GB)   G   7   Andrew Balding   32   54.5kg
33   112x332x7x   POUNAMU   G   7   Alan Mathews   33   54.5kg
34   021443x00x   BIG DUKE (IRE)   G   7   Darren Weir   34   54kg
35   36x004707x   MAX DYNAMITE (FR)   G   9   William Mullins   35   54kg
36   8121x05x4x   VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE)   G   7   Michael Moroney   36   54kg
37   x11x5x0x08   RED CARDINAL (IRE)   G   7   Darren Weir   37   54kg
38   219x32964x   DESERT SKYLINE (IRE)   G   5   David Elsworth   38   54kg
39   1x1422225x   RED VERDON (USA)   H   6   Ed Dunlop   39   54kg
40   7x56164x5x   AUVRAY (FR)   G   8   Richard Freedman   40   54kg
41   26x1353x2x   COUNT OCTAVE (GB)   H   5   Andrew Balding   41   54kg
42   313x655x1x   FINCHE (GB)   H   5   Chris Waller   42   54kg
43   x437829x7x   VENTURA STORM (IRE)   G   6   David & B Hayes & T Dabernig   43   54kg
44   x70x47x25x   TIBERIAN (FR)   H   7   Alain Couetil   44   53.5kg
45   321x1111x   HAMADA (GB)   G   5   Charlie Appleby   45   53.5kg
46   5158402x0x   ZACADA (NZ)   G   6   Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman   46   53kg
47   314513x01x   SIR CHARLES ROAD   G   5   Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott   47   53kg
48   x1x5x0057x   NAKEETA (GB)   G   8   Iain Jardine   48   53kg
49   2121x31x1x   WITHHOLD (GB)   G   6   Roger Charlton   49   53kg
50   732x03705x   SOLE IMPACT (JPN)   H   7   Hirofumi Toda   50   53kg
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Sep-13, 02:17 PM
.

Sorry, I thought I was modifying my own post that came out all strange.  :mad:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2018-Sep-13, 06:13 PM
Hamada for me. :x:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Sep-17, 06:18 PM
Flag Of Honour trained by Aiden O'Brien won the Irish St Leger over the weekend very well and is now $17 for the Cup. Latrobe (2nd) is at $26. 3rd horse Weekender is $51. Idaho was thrashed and he is now out to $51.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Sep-17, 09:31 PM


Ignore it

This 'iconic event' now has all the hallmarks of a racket exploiting emotional attachments of the community.

... do not go near it ever again!
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2018-Oct-15, 12:35 PM
Like the mare I managed to kill, just after the winning post 1st time round, a few years back....now my early spruik Hamada
is deceased after trackwork?
Bugger...
Yucatan?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Oct-15, 01:01 PM

Ignore it

This 'iconic event' now has all the hallmarks of a racket exploiting emotional attachments of the community.

... do not go near it ever again!

You are simply a troll and should be banished to your knitting forever.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-15, 03:35 PM
You are simply a troll and should be banished to your knitting forever.

Staggered why he hasn’t been
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-15, 04:35 PM
Like the mare I managed to kill, just after the winning post 1st time round, a few years back....now my early spruik Hamada
is deceased after trackwork?
Bugger...
Yucatan?


I was mightily impressed with the Herbert Power win so this guy is topping my list at the moment.


Long way to go yet and much study to do closer to time. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-15, 06:11 PM

How long since punters got a fair go in Cup week?

I simply ask my admirers to put more money down this mine shaft come 6 November -- and put the rest on any and all of the other races on that day and 'cr'oaks day'.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2018-Oct-15, 08:16 PM
Yep Zukes, it was like" did you bloody see that?"
That sustained move from basically last,  into 3rd , from like 1400 out to 400 out, then to kick away like that...'sheet' as the Mexicans drawl.
Where do I find sectionals..that race needs lookin at, as to the eye that was freakish. :yes:
Whomever backed him on Sat would have had a lovely ride and that warm incredible rush an "out of this world kicked their far king heads in " win gives you.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: sobig on 2018-Oct-15, 08:21 PM
Sectionals on racing.com

https://www.racing.com/form/2018-10-13/caulfield/race/10/results
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-15, 09:03 PM
Yep Zukes, it was like" did you bloody see that?"
That sustained move from basically last,  into 3rd , from like 1400 out to 400 out, then to kick away like that...'sheet' as the Mexicans drawl.
Where do I find sectionals..that race needs lookin at, as to the eye that was freakish. :yes:
Whomever backed him on Sat would have had a lovely ride and that warm incredible rush an "out of this world kicked their far king heads in " win gives you.


Ran 2.26.47 - faster than Tulloch.  And eased to the point that he could have been penalised by the stewards for stopping so quickly.


Cannot believe that time coupled with the ridiculous ease of the win.


Looks to be able to race anywhere in the field.  Has the turn of foot required and relaxes.


Going to have to look very hard from here on in to supplant him as my main thrust. 


FYI, his stablemate finished nicely in the Caulfied Stakes behind Benbatl. 


Any idea whom the stable thinks is the better?

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-15, 09:14 PM
I see he is out of the Caulfield Cup and will go to either the Cox Plate or Mooney Valley Cup a week later.


Would he take on Winks?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: sobig on 2018-Oct-15, 10:34 PM
Latest is probably straight into the MC.

Currently 24 in order of entry which should mean he gets in as several above are bound to pull out.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2018-Oct-16, 09:13 AM
Thank God for that.
The anxiety, probably unwarranted, of having him in the Cox Plate, is something I do not need.   :lol:  
Oh yea of little faith I hear em say....   :lol:  
PS thanks for sectionals link, So big.  emthup
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-21, 08:49 AM
Given what we saw yesterday there is really only one other piece of the puzzle.

Magic Circle. I wonder how he’s settled in
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-21, 09:43 AM
Melbourne Cup Winning Horse Weight 1972-2017

2017 Rekindling 51.5

2016 Almandin 52

2015 Prince of Penzance 53

2014 Protectionist 56.5

2013 Fiorente 55

2012 Green Moon 53.5

2011 Dunaden 54.5

2010 Americain 54.5

2009 Shocking 51

2008 Viewed 53

2007 Efficient 54.5

2006 Delta Blues 56

2005 Makybe Diva 58

2004 Makybe Diva 55.5

2003 Makybe Diva 52

2002 Media Puzzle 52.5

2001 Ethereal 52

2000 Brew 49

1999 Rogan Josh 53.5

1998 Jezabeel 53

1997 Might and Power 56

1996 Saintly 55.5

1995 Doriemus 54.5

1994 Jeune 56.5

1993 Vintage Crop 55.5

1992 Subzero 54.5

1991 Let's Elope 51

1990 Kingston Rule 53

1989 Tawriffic 54

1988 Empire Rose 53.5

1987 Kensei 51.5

1986 At Talaq 54.5

1985 What a Nuisance 52.5

1984 Black Knight 50

1983 Kiwi 52
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-21, 11:07 AM
Melbourne Cup Winning Horse Weight 1972-2017

2017 Rekindling 51.5

2016 Almandin 52

2015 Prince of Penzance 53

2014 Protectionist 56.5

2013 Fiorente 55

2012 Green Moon 53.5

2011 Dunaden 54.5

2010 Americain 54.5

2009 Shocking 51

2008 Viewed 53

2007 Efficient 54.5

2006 Delta Blues 56

2005 Makybe Diva 58

2004 Makybe Diva 55.5

2003 Makybe Diva 52

2002 Media Puzzle 52.5

2001 Ethereal 52

2000 Brew 55.5  :what:

1999 Rogan Josh 53.5

1998 Jezabeel 53

1997 Might and Power 56

1996 Saintly 55.5

1995 Doriemus 54.5

1994 Jeune 56.5

1993 Vintage Crop 55.5

1992 Subzero 54.5

1991 Let's Elope 51

1990 Kingston Rule 53

1989 Tawriffic 54

1988 Empire Rose 53.5

1987 Kensei 51.5

1986 At Talaq 54.5

1985 What a Nuisance 52.5

1984 Black Knight 50

1983 Kiwi 52

Look at the quality of horse who's carried 55kg or above to win  :o
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-21, 11:10 AM
I think Brew is wrong as I got it from external source. It is 49kgs and I adjusted the post.

The quality of winners over 55kgs is high but also contemplate those who have tried and failed with the weights over that limit.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-21, 02:16 PM
TAB/Tatts Fixed Market 21/10/18

There are 18 horses under 50-1.

2 of these, Youngstar and Kings Will Dream, are at $17 and $26 respectively.

In other words the bookies have quantified the chance of an Australia winner at 9.73%. But we are using their 300% markets which means in reality closer to 3.2% chance.

I'll have to drag out the Aussie Melbourne Cup thread. Pretty sure we will have at least 3 runners this year - hopefully one or two more.


Bet Win Odds Place Odds
YUCATAN IRE $7.00 $2.50
BEST SOLUTION $9.00 $3.00
AVILIUS $11.00 $3.50
MAGIC CIRCLE $11.00 $3.50
LATROBE $13.00 $4.00
WITHHOLD $13.00 $4.00
THE CLIFFSOFMOHER $17.00 $5.00
CROSS COUNTER $17.00 $5.00
DURETTO $17.00 $5.00
HOMESMAN $17.00 $5.00
MUNTAHAA $17.00 $5.00
ROSTROPOVICH $17.00 $5.00
YOUNGSTAR $17.00 $5.00
FINCHE $26.00 $7.25
KINGS WILL DREAM $26.00 $7.25
MARMELO $26.00 $7.25
A PRINCE OF ARRAN $26.00 $7.25
RED VERDON $26.00 $7.25
ACE HIGH $51.00 $14.00
BIG DUKE $51.00 $14.00
CHESTNUT COAT $51.00 $14.00
IDAHO $51.00 $14.00
JAAMEH $51.00 $14.00
NAKEETA $51.00 $14.00
PATRICK ERIN $51.00 $14.00
RED CARDINAL $51.00 $14.00
SOUND CHECK $51.00 $14.00
THE TAJ MAHAL $51.00 $14.00
THINKIN BIG $51.00 $14.00
TOSEN BASIL $51.00 $14.00
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN $51.00 $14.00
YOGI $51.00 $14.00
AUVRAY $101.00 $26.00
BRIMHAM ROCKS $101.00 $26.00
CASTERTON $101.00 $26.00
EGG TART $101.00 $26.00
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN $101.00 $26.00
HARIPOUR $101.00 $26.00
HUMIDOR $101.00 $26.00
JON SNOW $101.00 $26.00
LIBRAN $101.00 $26.00
LORD FANDANGO $101.00 $26.00
MASTER OF REALITY $101.00 $26.00
MIDTERM $101.00 $26.00
MISS ADMIRATION $101.00 $26.00
NIGHTS WATCH $101.00 $26.00
NORTHWEST PASSAGE $101.00 $26.00
ODEON $101.00 $26.00
ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN $101.00 $26.00
OUR VENICE BEACH $101.00 $26.00
PRIZE MONEY $101.00 $26.00
RISING RED $101.00 $26.00
RUNAWAY $101.00 $26.00
SIN TO WIN $101.00 $26.00
SIR CHARLES ROAD $101.00 $26.00
SIXTIES GROOVE $101.00 $26.00
SOLE IMPACT $101.00 $26.00
SULLY $101.00 $26.00
THE LORD MAYOR $101.00 $26.00
THE PENTAGON $101.00 $26.00
TRAP FOR FOOLS $101.00 $26.00
VENGEUR MASQUE $101.00 $26.00
VENTURA STORM $101.00 $26.00
VIN DE DANCE $101.00 $26.00
WALL OF FIRE $101.00 $26.00
AZURO $201.00 $51.00
DAL HARRAILD $201.00 $51.00
HARRISON $201.00 $51.00
HIGH BRIDGE $201.00 $51.00
HUSH WRITER $201.00 $51.00
KELLSTORM $201.00 $51.00
LUVALUVA $201.00 $51.00
MEGABLAST $201.00 $51.00
MIGHTY BOSS $201.00 $51.00
OPPOSITION $201.00 $51.00
ORMITO $201.00 $51.00
PENTATHLON $201.00 $51.00
REZEALIENT $201.00 $51.00
ZACADA $201.00 $51.00
ILWENDO $301.00 $76.00
MASTER ZEPHYR $301.00 $76.00
ROMANESQUE $301.00 $76.00
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-21, 02:17 PM
Actually Kings Will Dream is not a dinky di Aussie. Originally raced in Great Britain.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-21, 04:50 PM
Surely who shot the barman has to go around again  :lol:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-21, 04:54 PM
Surely who shot the barman has to go around again  :lol:

New Zealander.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: arthur on 2018-Oct-21, 08:14 PM
Sponsored by the on course bookies for the 'daytime-nite-clubbers' to back  :shutup:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-24, 04:36 PM
Withhold bleeds, Runaway triumphs

The Melbourne Cup dream for connections of English galloper Withhold is over after the well-supported galloper bled from both nostrils to attract an automatic racing ban after being unplaced in Wednesday's Geelong Cup.

The huge Roger Charlton-trained stayer, who was heavily supported into $3.20 to win the $350,000 Cup on Wednesday on the back of excellent staying form in the UK this year, has had his Australian campaign terminated as he will be banned from racing for three months.

Withhold, who wound-up in eighth place, had been up among the favourites for the Melbourne Cup for some time but he was one of several flops in Wednesday's Cup which was won bravely by the VRC St Leger Stakes winner Runaway.

After settling on the speed, Runaway ($16) sustained a long sprint to outstay his rivals and win by three-quarters of a length to Northwest Passage ($9.50), with the same margin to Finche ($4.80), who worked home well in the imported horse's first run for new trainer Chris Waller.

The win of Runaway could improve his position in the order of entry into the Melbourne Cup but, with 50.5kg and 49th in order in the big one, is unlikely to attract anywhere near the type of penalty that could elevate him into the final field of 24, meaning he may have to go through the Hotham Handicap on Derby deal to seal a Cup spot.

https://www.racing.com/news/2018-10-24/review-withhold-bleeds-runaway-triumphs
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-24, 09:18 PM
PP, might be asking too much but any chance of you updating original post with latest odds and order of entry.

Call me lazy but scrolling through the posts or googling it at times is annoying as some sites don’t update.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-25, 09:25 AM
PP, might be asking too much but any chance of you updating original post with latest odds and order of entry.

Call me lazy but scrolling through the posts or googling it at times is annoying as some sites don’t update.

Latest Order Of Entry now in the OP Jeunes.

Not enough screen real estate for the odds. I'll post them on this thread a bit later.

  Last 10 Horse Sex Age Trainer Ballot Weight
1 x3195x1111 BEST SOLUTION (IRE) H 5 Saeed Bin Suroor 1 57.5kg
2 x3326x1111 AVILIUS (GB) G 5 James Cummings 2 54.5kg
3 4184x81733 HUMIDOR (NZ) G 6 Darren Weir 3 58kg
4 5462x02410 ACE HIGH H 4 David Payne 4 55kg
5 x512433x43 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE) H 5 Aidan O'Brien 5 56.5kg
6 2x221172 LATROBE (IRE) H 4 Joseph O'Brien 6 52kg
7 45x8145335 OUR IDAHO (IRE) H 6 Aidan O'Brien 7 56kg
8 57x150x11x MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) G 7 Ian Williams 8 56kg
9 1x6731x769 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) G 10 Chris Waller 9 55.5kg
10 2x3x56x020 TOSEN BASIL (JPN) H 7 Darren Weir 10 55.5kg
11 1796x4341x MUNTAHAA (IRE) G 6 John Gosden 11 55.5kg
12 5x211250x0 CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) H 5 Yoshito Yahagi 12 55.5kg
13 144x1132x0 SOUND (GER) M 6 Michael Moroney 13 55.5kg
14 13x4192251 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) H 4 Aidan O'Brien 14 51kg
15 1x69x2112x MARMELO (GB) H 6 Hughie Morrison 15 55kg
16 041x8x7915 THE TAJ MAHAL (IRE) H 5 Liam Howley 16 55kg
17 11x24112x CROSS COUNTER (GB) G 4 Charlie Appleby 17 51kg
18 11113x6327 YOUNGSTAR M 4 Chris Waller 18 51.5kg
19 00521x5333 EGG TART M 5 Chris Waller 19 53kg
20 3x15x53314 DURETTO (GB) G 7 Andrew Balding 20 54.5kg
21 2x436013x1 YUCATAN IRE (IRE) H 5 Aidan O'Brien 21 54.5kg
22 1443x00500 BIG DUKE (IRE) G 7 Darren Weir 22 54kg
23 21x05x4059 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) G 7 Michael Moroney 23 54kg
24 1x5x0x0803 RED CARDINAL (IRE) G 7 Darren Weir 24 54kg
25 56164x5266 AUVRAY (FR) G 8 Richard Freedman 25 54kg
26 1x14222250 RED VERDON (USA) H 6 Ed Dunlop 26 54kg
27 313x655x1x FINCHE (GB) H 5 Chris Waller 27 54kg
28 37829x7940 VENTURA STORM (IRE) G 6 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 28 54kg
29 53x16x2172 HOMESMAN (USA) G 5 Liam Howley 29 53kg
30 158402x008 ZACADA (NZ) G 6 Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman 30 53kg
31 14513x0147 SIR CHARLES ROAD G 5 Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott 31 53kg
32 x1x5x00577 NAKEETA (GB) G 8 Iain Jardine 32 53kg
33 2121x31x1x WITHHOLD (GB) G 6 Roger Charlton 33 53kg
34 32x03705x0 SOLE IMPACT (JPN) H 7 Hirofumi Toda 34 53kg
35 1111x43236 KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE) G 5 Darren Weir 35 53kg
36 110328x277 OUR VENICE BEACH (IRE) H 5 Liam Howley 36 53kg
37 9337x35107 MISS ADMIRATION M 4 Mick Price 37 50kg
38 x2188632x3 A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) G 6 Charlie Fellowes 38 53kg
39 8x420x8378 LIBRAN (IRE) G 8 Chris Waller 39 53kg
40 x9066x9x39 PRIZE MONEY (GB) G 6 Saeed Bin Suroor 40 52.5kg
41 31105x0248 GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) H 6 Darren Weir 41 52.5kg
42 4x39770x36 LORD FANDANGO (GER) H 6 Archie Alexander 42 52.5kg
43 432x80x562 SULLY (NZ) G 4 Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young 43 51kg
44 8x16313x50 MEGABLAST (NZ) G 7 Darren Weir 44 52.5kg
45 x6x10x2468 DAL HARRAILD (GB) G 6 Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 45 52.5kg
46 248x220x04 WALL OF FIRE (IRE) H 6 Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 46 52.5kg
47 03x60x8642 ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN (IRE) R 7 Chris Waller 47 52.5kg
48 114656x641 PATRICK ERIN (NZ) G 7 Chris Waller 48 52kg
49 0231130x34 RUNAWAY R 4 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 49 50.5kg
50 512226x960 REZEALIENT G 4 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 50 50.5kg
51 x04331x220 RISING RED (NZ) G 5 Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young 51 51kg
52 361x16246x CASTERTON (IRE) H 5 Chris Waller 52 51kg
53 x049632x0x PENTATHLON (NZ) G 7 John Wheeler 53 51kg
54 6427x34535 ODEON (NZ) G 5 Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra 54 51kg
55 31119x4584 NORTHWEST PASSAGE G 5 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 55 50.5kg
56 1x22x33222 BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) G 5 Chris Waller 56 50kg
57 462L1x3300 SIN TO WIN (NZ) G 6 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 57 50kg
58 x4421x2263 YOGI (NZ) G 6 Darren Weir 58 50kg
59 0x71491117 HARIPOUR (IRE) H 5 Darren Weir 59 50kg
60 2333240x68 ORMITO (GER) G 6 Darren Weir 60 50kg
61 33x1x61812 JAAMEH (IRE) G 6 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 61 50kg
62 6164x0x025 MIDTERM (GB) G 6 Liam Howley 62 50kg
63 x31x0x1147 HIGH BRIDGE (GB) G 8 Chris Waller 63 50kg
64 9x00640671 KELLSTORM (IRE) H 6 Darren Weir 64 50kg
65 x780x00690 MIGHTY BOSS H 4 Mick Price 65 53.5kg
66 16x6321175 TRAP FOR FOOLS G 5 Jarrod McLean 66 53kg
67 141x213160 NIGHT’S WATCH (NZ) G 5 Darren Weir 67 52kg
68 x6110x4850 LUVALUVA (NZ) M 4 John Sargent 68 50kg
69 0x55211x31 SIXTIES GROOVE (IRE) G 6 Darren Weir 69 50.5kg
70 12x0873521 AZURO (FR) G 5 Darren Weir 70= 50kg
71 0x621x4520 HARRISON (GB) G 6 Liam Howley 70= 50kg
72 331x0312 ILWENDO (GER) H 5 Matthew Smith 70= 50kg
73 811725 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) H 4 Joseph O'Brien 70= 50kg
74 1x99574641 MASTER ZEPHYR (GB) G 7 Darren Weir 70= 50kg
75 4x02x67503 OPPOSITION (GB) G 6 Chris Waller 70= 50kg
76 2230x02590 ROMANESQUE (IRE) H 6 Jarrod McLean 70= 50kg
77 6400x01190 THE LORD MAYOR (NZ) G 4 Chris Waller 70= 50kg
78 1x3x338550 THE PENTAGON (IRE) H 4 Aidan O'Brien 70= 50kg
79 131131 THINKIN’ BIG C 3 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 70= 49kg
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-25, 09:59 AM
Thanks PP.

It will be interesting to see who drops out this week as the lower weights will struggle to get in unless they win the qualifying race over the next two weeks.

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: specialweek2 on 2018-Oct-25, 11:55 AM
Latrobe out, yes.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-25, 02:58 PM
Didnt like Latrobe myself.
 Not much room for others to sneak 8n with only egg tart likely to miss
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-25, 03:43 PM
Thanks guys.

In the Opening Post (OP) I have greyed out Latrobe and Withhold (who bled in the Geelong Cup).

Let me know of any others.

I would be surprised if Ace High runs after he weakened out of the Caulfield Cup.

Big Duke sadly seems to be a shadow of his best this campaign.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-27, 06:32 PM
After today, other than having a runner in the Melbourne Cup, below horses in current top 24 should be looking at the competitiveness of their horses.

Big Duke
Egg Tart
Taj Mahal

We will know by Oct 29 when the next lot of declarations will be in.

A couple of good runs in Cox Plate too but not sure what happened to Kings Dream.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-27, 06:43 PM
A Tweet from @gramage_

Kings Will Dream is heading to Ballarat Vet Clinic after being pulled out of the Cox Plate. Vets say at this stage he is lame in the near hind, John Allen reported “it felt like he may have re-injured that heel and then in his stride it was like he was hitting a nerve.” @Racing
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Oct-28, 02:17 PM
1   x3195x1111   BEST SOLUTION (IRE)   H   5   Saeed Bin Suroor   1   57.5kg      2
2   3326x11114   AVILIUS (GB)   G   5   James Cummings   2   54.5kg   1.5kg   6.5
3   184x817333   HUMIDOR (NZ)   G   6   Darren Weir   3   58kg      1.5
4   5462x02410   ACE HIGH   H   4   David Payne   4   55kg      3

5   x512433x43   THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE)   H   5   Aidan O'Brien   5   56.5kg      3
6   45x8145335   OUR IDAHO (IRE)   H   6   Aidan O'Brien   6   56kg      3.5
7   57x150x11x   MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE)   G   7   Ian Williams   7   56kg      3.5
8   x6731x7694   WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ)   G   10   Chris Waller   8   55.5kg      4
9   x3x56x0200   TOSEN BASIL (JPN)   H   7   Darren Weir   9   55.5kg      4
10   1796x4341x   MUNTAHAA (IRE)   G   6   John Gosden   10   55.5kg      4
11   5x211250x0   CHESTNUT COAT (JPN)   H   5   Yoshito Yahagi   11   55.5kg      4
12   144x1132x0   SOUND (GER)   H   6   Michael Moroney   12   55.5kg      4
13   3x41922515   ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)   H   4   Aidan O'Brien   13   51kg      4.5
14   1x69x2112x   MARMELO (GB)   H   6   Hughie Morrison   14   55kg      4.5
15   41x8x79159   THE TAJ MAHAL (IRE)   H   5   Liam Howley   15   55kg      4.5
16   11x24112x   CROSS COUNTER (GB)   G   4   Charlie Appleby   16   51kg      4.5
17   11113x6327   YOUNGSTAR   M   4   Chris Waller   17   51.5kg      5
18   0521x53330   EGG TART   M   5   Chris Waller   18   53kg      5
19   3x15x53314   DURETTO (GB)   G   7   Andrew Balding   19   54.5kg      5

20   2x436013x1   YUCATAN IRE (IRE)   H   5   Aidan O'Brien   20   54.5kg   2.5kg   5
21   443x005000   BIG DUKE (IRE)   G   7   Darren Weir   21   54kg      5.5
22   21x05x4059   VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE)   G   7   Michael Moroney   22   54kg      5.5
23   7829x79401   VENTURA STORM (IRE)   G   6   David & B Hayes & T Dabernig   23   54kg      5.5
24   x5x0x08030   RED CARDINAL (IRE)   G   7   Darren Weir   24   54kg      5.5
25   56164x5266   AUVRAY (FR)   G   8   Richard Freedman   25   54kg      5.5
26   1x14222250   RED VERDON (USA)   H   6   Ed Dunlop   26   54kg      5.5
27   13x655x1x3   FINCHE (GB)   H   5   Chris Waller   27   54kg      5.5
28   231130x341   RUNAWAY   R   4   Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott   28   52kg   1.5kg   6
29   53x16x2172   HOMESMAN (USA)   G   5   Liam Howley   29   53kg      6.5
30   58402x0080   ZACADA (NZ)   G   6   Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman   30   53kg      6.5
31   14513x0147   SIR CHARLES ROAD   G   5   Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott   31   53kg      6.5
32   1x5x005770   NAKEETA (GB)   G   8   Iain Jardine   32   53kg      6.5
33   121x31x1x8   WITHHOLD (GB)   G   6   Roger Charlton   33   53kg      6.5
34   32x03705x0   SOLE IMPACT (JPN)   H   7   Hirofumi Toda   34   53kg      6.5
35   111x43236P   KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)   G   5   Darren Weir   35   53kg      6.5
36   110328x277   OUR VENICE BEACH (IRE)   H   5   Liam Howley   36   53kg      6.5
37   337x351076   MISS ADMIRATION   M   4   Mick Price   37   50kg      6.5
38   x2188632x3   A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)   G   6   Charlie Fellowes   38   53kg      6.5
39   x420x83783   LIBRAN (IRE)   G   8   Chris Waller   39   53kg      6.5
40   9066x9x390   PRIZE MONEY (GB)   G   6   Saeed Bin Suroor   40   52.5kg      7
41   31105x0248   GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)   H   6   Darren Weir   41   52.5kg      7
42   4x39770x36   LORD FANDANGO (GER)   H   6   Archie Alexander   42   52.5kg      7
43   32x80x5625   SULLY (NZ)   G   4   Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young   43   51kg      7
44   x16313x507   MEGABLAST (NZ)   G   7   Darren Weir   44   52.5kg      7
45   x6x10x2468   DAL HARRAILD (GB)   G   6   Ciaron Maher & David Eustace   45   52.5kg      7
46   48x220x040   WALL OF FIRE (IRE)   H   6   Ciaron Maher & David Eustace   46   52.5kg      7
47   3x60x86420   ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN (IRE)   R   7   Chris Waller   47   52.5kg      7
48   114656x641   PATRICK ERIN (NZ)   G   7   Chris Waller   48   52kg   2.0kg   7.5
49   512226x960   REZEALIENT   G   4   David & B Hayes & T Dabernig   49   50.5kg      7.5
50   x04331x220   RISING RED (NZ)   G   5   Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young   50   51kg      8.5
51   61x16246x6   CASTERTON (IRE)   H   5   Chris Waller   51   51kg      8.5
52   x049632x0x   PENTATHLON (NZ)   G   7   John Wheeler   52   51kg      8.5
53   427x345353   ODEON (NZ)   G   5   Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra   53   51kg      8.5
54   1119x45842   NORTHWEST PASSAGE   G   5   Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott   54   50.5kg      9
55   1x22x33222   BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)   G   5   Chris Waller   55   50kg      9.5
56   462L1x3300   SIN TO WIN (NZ)   G   6   David & B Hayes & T Dabernig   56   50kg      9.5
57   4421x22630   YOGI (NZ)   G   6   Darren Weir   57   50kg      9.5
58   x714911179   HARIPOUR (IRE)   H   5   Darren Weir   58   50kg      9.5
59   2333240x68   ORMITO (GER)   G   6   Darren Weir   59   50kg      9.5
60   33x1x61812   JAAMEH (IRE)   G   6   David & B Hayes & T Dabernig   60   50kg      9.5
61   164x0x0254   MIDTERM (GB)   G   6   Liam Howley   61   50kg      9.5
62   x31x0x1147   HIGH BRIDGE (GB)   G   8   Chris Waller   62   50kg      9.5
63   9x00640671   KELLSTORM (IRE)   H   6   Darren Weir   63   50kg      9.5
64   x780x00690   MIGHTY BOSS   H   4   Mick Price   64   53.5kg      4.5
65   6x63211752   TRAP FOR FOOLS   G   5   Jarrod McLean   65   53kg      6.5
66   141x213160   NIGHT’S WATCH (NZ)   G   5   Darren Weir   66   52kg   1.0kg   7.5
67   x6110x4850   LUVALUVA (NZ)   M   4   John Sargent   67   50kg      8
68   0x55211x31   SIXTIES GROOVE (IRE)   G   6   Darren Weir   68   50.5kg      9
69   12x0873521   AZURO (FR)   G   5   Darren Weir   69=   50kg      9.5
70   0x621x4520   HARRISON (GB)   G   6   Liam Howley   69=   50kg      9.5
71   331x03123   ILWENDO (GER)   H   5   Matthew Smith   69=   50kg      9.5
72   811725   MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)   H   4   Joseph O'Brien   69=   50kg      9.5
73   x995746415   MASTER ZEPHYR (GB)   G   7   Darren Weir   69=   50kg      9.5
74   4x02x67503   OPPOSITION (GB)   G   6   Chris Waller   69=   50kg      9.5
75   2230x02590   ROMANESQUE (IRE)   H   6   Jarrod McLean   69=   50kg      9.5
76   400x011902   THE LORD MAYOR (NZ)   G   4   Chris Waller   69=   50kg      9.5
77   1x3x338550   THE PENTAGON (IRE)   H   4   Aidan O'Brien   69=   50kg      9.5
78   131131   THINKIN’ BIG   C   3   Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott   69=   49kg      9.5
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2018-Oct-28, 02:43 PM
Auth

Are those scratchings actual ones or your anticipatory ones?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-28, 02:53 PM
Kings Will Dream fights for life after fracturing his pelvis in Cox Plate; import hurt at Werribee
COX Plate casualty Kings Will Dream is in a critical condition after fracturing his pelvis and rupturing a blood vessel during the Cox Plate.

Herald Sun
October 28, 20183:17pm
COX Plate casualty Kings Will Dream is fighting for his life at the Ballarat Equine Clinic.
His managing owner Brad Spicer tweeted that Kings Will Dream fractured his pelvis and ruptured a blood vessel in the incident which he suffered in the early stages of the Cox Plate.
“The next 24 to 72 hours is critical as he will be monitored closely,” Spicer said.
 
Spicer said the good news was that the ruptured blood vessel had clotted overnight but the veterinary surgeons are still concerned that it can be disturbed.
Kings Will Dream was pulled out of the Cox Plate by his jockey John Allen after 500m as he said he felt uncomfortable.
Allen told stewards that the gelding struck himself upon leaving the barriers.

Kings Will Dream is in a critical condition

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-28, 02:54 PM
Another update on MC runners

CAULFIELD CUP EYE-CATCHER INJURED
By Leo Schlink
DURETTO is the latest international to fall foul of Werribee’s Saturday morning trackwork curse.
Fourth in the Caulfield Cup, the English contender is now in doubt for the Melbourne Cup after injuring a leg while galloping on Saturday.
Racing Victoria stewards said the raider will undergo a bone scan on his nearside foreleg at the University of Melbourne’s equine centre on Tuesday.
Results of the scan will determine if the horse is fit to contest the November 6 Cup.
Duretto is currently restricted to box rest at the Werribee quarantine station.
He stormed into Melbourne Cup calculations with a strong-finishing fourth in the Caulfield Cup and is a TAB $17 chance.
He is the fourth international to suffer an injury at Werribee.
Hamada was euthanised after fracturing a leg during exercise, while Godolphin stablemate Emotionless has been spelled after fracturing his pelvis.
Cross Counter was restricted to box rest after needing stitches to a leg cut but is now back on target for the Melbourne Cup.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2018-Oct-28, 02:59 PM
Emotionless has been spelled after fracturing his pelvis.


Maybe this humour might be a little black so those easily offended turn away now.








I doubt whether "Emotionless" will be feeling that way with a fractured pelvis.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-28, 03:00 PM
From Canberra Times

Craig Williams gets the ride on Youngstar in the Melbourne Cup
By Chris Roots & Adam Pengilly
27 October 2018 — 7:48pm

Chris Waller has booked Craig Williams to ride Youngstar in the Melbourne Cup after Kerrin McEvoy opted to ride Godolphin raider Cross Counter.

Youngstar was one of the main victims of the slow tempo in the Caulfield Cup, getting back to last and charging to the line to run seventh. Waller had several jockeys hunting the ride on the Queensland Oaks winner.


“Once Kerrin made his decision, we had Joao Moreira and Brenton Avdulla in the mix but we have booked Craig, who can make the 51.5kg easily,” Waller said. "She has come through the Caulfield Cup very well and I think she will run the two miles right out."

Williams has won the Golden Slipper on Miss Finland, a Cox Plate on Pinker Pinker and Caulfield Cups with Southern Speed and Dunaden, leaving the Melbourne Cup as the last big one he needs for the grand slam.

The premier Sydney stable earlier in the week booked Zac Purton to ride Geelong Cup placegetter Finche in the race that stops the nation.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2018-Oct-28, 03:01 PM
It was Youngstar that made me query Auth's scratching in the above post.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-28, 03:09 PM
It was Youngstar that made me query Auth's scratching in the above post.

Yeah I did a double take on that  :chin: Ace High still in markets as well  :what:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-28, 03:13 PM
Hope he's wrong ive got a vrry nice double going with  best solution
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Oct-28, 03:21 PM
Auth

Are those scratchings actual ones or your anticipatory ones?

They were my anticipatory ones.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2018-Oct-28, 03:35 PM
Thanks, a lot.

I'd better go now and retrieve my tickets.

Hope they haven't lit the BBQ yet. :x:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Oct-28, 03:40 PM
  :lol:

From https://www.punters.com.au/news/likely-field-for-the-2018-melbourne-cup_173986/

Expected field for the 2018 Melbourne Cup
 HorseSexAgeTrainerWeightPenalty 
1BEST SOLUTION (IRE)H5Saeed Bin Suroor57.5kg  
2AVILIUS (GB)G5James Cummings54.5kg1.5kg 
3ACE HIGHH4David Payne55kg  
4THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE)H5Aidan O'Brien56.5kg  
5OUR IDAHO (IRE)H6Aidan O'Brien56kg  
6MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE)G7Ian Williams56kg  
7WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ)G10Chris Waller55.5kg  
8MUNTAHAA (IRE)G6John Gosden55.5kg  
9CHESTNUT COAT (JPN)H5Yoshito Yahagi55.5kg  
10SOUND CHECK (GER)H6Michael Moroney55.5kg  
11ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)H4Aidan O'Brien51kg  
12MARMELO (GB)H6Hughie Morrison55kg  
13THE TAJ MAHAL (IRE)H5Liam Howley55kg  
14CROSS COUNTER (GB)G4Charlie Appleby51kg  
15YOUNGSTARM4Chris Waller51.5kg  
16DURETTO (GB)*G7Andrew Balding54.5kg  
17YUCATAN IRE (IRE)H5Aidan O'Brien54.5kg2.5kg 
18VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE)G7Michael Moroney54kg  
19VENTURA STORM (IRE)G6David & B Hayes & T Dabernig54kg  
20AUVRAY (FR)G8Richard Freedman54kg  
21RED VERDON (USA)H6Ed Dunlop54kg  
22FINCHE (GB)H5Chris Waller54kg  
23RUNAWAYR4Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott52kg1.5kg 
24JAAMEH (IRE)G6David & B Hayes & T Dabernig50kg  

*Duretto is in some doubt pending the result of bone scans

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-28, 03:58 PM
That is a brave field pick more than a week away but then again it is better than what most would have picked a few weeks ago.

No 3 Ace High is doubtful unless he has done really well over the last week

No 13 Taj Mahal did not anything much yesterday so unless he is going to be a pacemaker or have a good sit near the lead, it is hard to see him being competitive

No 14 Cross Counter is under an injury cloud but anticipated to start

No 16 Duretto is under a larger injury crowd

No 24 Jaameh has to win on Derby Day to qualify but Hayes reckons it is his best chance to win
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2018-Oct-28, 04:09 PM
"No 13 Taj Mahal did not anything much yesterday so unless he is going to be a pacemaker or have a good sit near the lead, it is hard to see him being competitive"

He sat out in the bleachers.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Oct-28, 04:10 PM
Jaameh, Is he NOT qualified ?

He can win on Saturday, In fact without even looking at the weights and field I expect him to win. But running on Saturday will ruin his chances on Tuesday, yet he can not get in on Tuesday if he does not win on Saturday.  :chin: :bleh: :chin: :bleh: What a conundrum.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Oct-28, 05:08 PM
I think that's a loose use of the word Qualified.

Jaameh ran third in a Group 3 race over 2500m at Flemington on October 6th, so in terms of passing the ballot conditions he is qualified.

He is just so far down the order of entry with 50kg he is very unlikely to make the top 24 without winning on Saturday.

Why do you think he couldn't do the Shocking double - I know you had no qualms about his chances in the big one.    :biggrin:

It's a very similar situation - Shocking missed the Caulfield Cup as a scratched emergency as well from memory.

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Oct-28, 06:01 PM
Actually I take that back. Just looking at form more closely, for some reason I had this idea that he was doing super racing really fresh but he hasn't been being kept fresh he has raced quite consistently on a 2 to 3 week basis, so I take that back. Obviously it would depend on how hard a run he has.

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-28, 06:27 PM
Also noticed that Weir does not have a runner too.

Quite intrigued by that as he has been picking up some nice races too this spring.

I stand to be corrected but Aidan seems to have the most runners in the top 24 at the moment.

The weather seems ok too which will be interesting for a few runners.



Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: gunbower on 2018-Oct-28, 06:51 PM
What a disgrace this race has become. It used to be this nation's major event. Sadly no more thanks to the donkeys who run the VRC.
Really couldn't care less any longer.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Oct-28, 07:23 PM
I actually find it a more interesting race.

My betting on the race has reduced dramatically over the last few years but I actually find the fact the raiders come intriguing though I do kind of miss following your selected locals through their lead ups and early doubles are now clearly out.

I have sympathy for local trainers who want more qualifying/staying races throughout the year but really it's not like there's a batch of good local stayers missing out.

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: gunbower on 2018-Oct-28, 07:47 PM
Wenona, my punting on the Cup has also diminished . It is now zero. Prefer to wait to Kyneton Cup day on the Wednesday.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Oct-28, 07:51 PM
The other big factor in my Melbourne Cup betting drop was the overseas corporates coming to Australia and making me close my off-shore accounts.  emthdown
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-28, 07:58 PM
Has definitely lost local interest. Don't look forward to the race like I once did.

Ladbrokes have an interesting market. Barriers. Only 113%

Barrier 5 $17.00 5.88%
Barrier 6 $17.00 5.88%
Barrier 7 $17.00 5.88%
Barrier 8 $17.00 5.88%
Barrier 9 $17.00 5.88%
Barrier 10 $17.00 5.88%
Barrier 11 $17.00 5.88%
Barrier 14 $17.00 5.88%
Barrier 17 $17.00 5.88%
Barrier 1 $21.00 4.76%
Barrier 4 $21.00 4.76%
Barrier 19 $21.00 4.76%
Barrier 22 $21.00 4.76%
Barrier 2 $26.00 3.85%
Barrier 3 $26.00 3.85%
Barrier 12 $26.00 3.85%
Barrier 13 $26.00 3.85%
Barrier 15 $26.00 3.85%
Barrier 16 $26.00 3.85%
Barrier 20 $26.00 3.85%
Barrier 21 $26.00 3.85%
Barrier 23 $26.00 3.85%
Barrier 18 $31.00 3.23%
Barrier 24 $31.00 3.23%
TOTAL
113.06%
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-28, 09:53 PM
If all the state racing bodies worked together, we will be seeing more and more of these o/s horses racing before the cup.

Defending champions and top 5 weights will be the first to qualify. I would then go on all WFA winners over 2000m and beyond with all Australian Derby  and Oaks winners to automatically qualify. Then give the winners of the Sydney Cup and Metropolitan automatic qualification. The winner of the CC and placegetters automatically qualify. Then you throw a few more Victorian based staying handicaps such as the Lexus, Moonee Valley Cup, Geelong Cup, Herbert Power and St Leger and the winners get in.

If you have too many then you go on weights. This stops many o/s runners that are pitched in at the weights who win a group or listed race automatically qualifying.

I am not saying we should stop o/s runners running in the race. Far from it, I just think we should get them to qualify majority of the time in Australia unless they are the type of horse like the CC winner etc with high class WFA form in Europe.

It also makes the public get a better understanding of the runners too.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-29, 12:43 AM
I actually find it a more interesting race.

My betting on the race has reduced dramatically over the last few years but I actually find the fact the raiders come intriguing though I do kind of miss following your selected locals through their lead ups and early doubles are now clearly out.

I have sympathy for local trainers who want more qualifying/staying races throughout the year but really it's not like there's a batch of good local stayers missing out.


Could not agree more which means you're finally right!  lol


I love the international flavour of the Cup these days.  The class is way better than back when dodgy


NZers would get in with light weights.  Weights far more compressed now.


Has anyone seen Magic Circles win in the Chester Cup?


As Molly would say, do yourselves a favour.  That's the acceleration I'm looking for. 


Not saying he's my main bet yet - still have much work to do but you'd have to love his explosive move in that race. 


Usually look for a younger horse than he but I also notice he's only had 21 starts. 



Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-29, 05:22 AM
I could be wrong but it feels like we've seen a lot of O/S horses racing here this season?  :chin:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-29, 05:35 AM
Perhaps they're over their condescending shit and simply looking at the money.


In other words, being honest for once. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: gunbower on 2018-Oct-29, 07:25 AM
If you are going to continue to try and insult people at least show a smidgen of intelligence and learn to spell  the language !
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-29, 12:54 PM
I'm sorry but who am I insulting?


And don't leave two spaces between words. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-29, 04:24 PM
Also noticed that Weir does not have a runner too.

Quite intrigued by that as he has been picking up some nice races too this spring.

I stand to be corrected but Aidan seems to have the most runners in the top 24 at the moment.

The weather seems ok too which will be interesting for a few runners.

I was incorrect. Weir has Red Cardinal.

Interesting article below from racenet on one of the favourites.


Ban me from the Melbourne Cup for life - I don't care says 'crazy' billionaire
 
Marwan Koukash after winning the Chester Cup with Magic Circle Photo: Twitter
 
Article Author
Ben Dorries
29 October 2018


British billionaire Marwan Koukash will wear a custom-made bum-bearing thong to the Melbourne Cup and doesn’t care if racing authorities ban him for life for exposing himself should Magic Circle win.

The colourful UK owner whose estimated wealth is as much as $3billion denies it’s a publicity stunt – he says it’s just the way he wants to celebrate.
He insists he isn’t joking – and he doesn’t care about the consequences of removing his clothes and rejoicing in a thong (g-string) should he become a Melbourne Cup winner.
 “I will have a thong on at least - my parts are not a pretty sight so I will keep them hidden away from the cameras,” Koukash told Racenet.
“My thong (g-string) is built in such a way, it is especially built, to enhance the look of my private parts. To make them look bigger than what they really are.
“I am not doing it for publicity trust me, I want to mark winning the Melbourne Cup with something and taking my clothes off is the way I want to celebrate it.
“I don't care if they ban me afterwards, as long as I win the Melbourne Cup they can never take that away from me.
“I'm not going to listen to them (racing authorities) - nobody has warned me, so I take that as a green light to do whatever I want.
“They know of my intentions and nobody has told me I can't do it.
“For me, winning the Melbourne Cup would be like having sex for the first time.
“There are a lot of owners who are stiff upper lip, you look at the way they receive their trophies and they don’t even seem happy.
“I'm not classified as your proper owner like the other owners, I'm just a fan and sometimes I'm crazy.
“You've got to have passion and if you can't show your passion after winning a race you might as well not be involved in racing.
“I have done some outlandish things when I have won races before but, taking my clothes off I am going to reserve that for the Melbourne Cup.”
 
The Melbourne Cup has seen its share of oil-rich sheiks and casino owners but it has never seen anything quite like Marwan Koukash.

The flamboyant Koukash is well-known in Britain – he saved rugby league club Salford from financial ruin when he bought the Super League battlers in 2013.Years later he handed control of the club to a community trust and agreed to write off the debt owed to him by the club. Koukash, who has made his vast wealth in property, hotels and corporate training, was introduced to horse racing by his bank manager and says he has had more than 500 winners since 2007. Those have included Mount Athos, the galloper which became known to Aussie racing lovers when finishing third behind Fiorente in the 2013 Melbourne Cup after a year earlier finishing fifth behind Green Moon.

But behind 59-year-old Koukash’s colourful personality and sometimes outrageous statements is the extraordinary tale of a man who was born in Palestine on the West Bank of the River Jordan. When he was just eight years old, his modest family house was bombed which set off a train of events which at one stage saw him become a “boy soldier” and his family spending three years in a refugee camp in Jordan before being forced to leave for Kuwait.

As a teenager he was sent to Britain by his father – arriving with just a few British Pounds in his pocket - but worked varied jobs including as a bouncer, waiter and trader to help fund his education. “When I was young my family lived a very simple life, living off the land basically,” Koukash recalls. “We had a very modest house with no running water and no electricity but we had a happy life. “But all of a sudden that was taken away from us because of the war, we went to a refugee camp for three years then I experienced another Civil War before we moved to Kuwait. “I was a boy soldier in the 1970 Civil War between the Palestinians and the Jordanians. “I had to fight to survive and those years shaped the rest of my life. “If I want something, I don't give up until I get it – what I have got now in life, it is down to hard work and determination.
“I can't imagine waking up one morning and not having a challenge.”

Koukash will arrive in Melbourne mid-week to enjoy the Melbourne Cup build-up with Ian Williams-trained Magic Circle which is currently on the second line of Melbourne Cup betting at $10.
 
Magic Circle booked his trip to Melbourne with an emphatic six-length romp in the Group III Henry II Stakes at Sandown in May, which followed an equally easy win in the Chester Cup.
Corey Brown will be searching for back-to-back Melbourne Cup wins with Magic Circle and Koukash likes his chances.
“I think he is a better horse than Mount Athos. You need a horse that can travel, which he does, and has a turn of foot,” Koukash said.
“When I brought him I thought I would have a good chance of winning the Chester Cup with him but the way he won that race, with his turn of foot, within 100 yards he just dismissed the whole field, I started thinking ‘Wow' this can be a Melbourne Cup horse.
“Then we sent him to Sandown and he did exactly the same against Group horses rather than handicappers.''


Koukash says his wife Mandy can’t make it to Australia for the Melbourne Cup on November 6 but it is probably just as well.
He doubts his better half would approve of the risqué celebrations if Magic Circle crosses the line first.
“She would probably divorce me if she saw what will happen, and it's probably easier for me to find a new wife than it is to win the Melbourne Cup,” Koukash quipped.
“Regardless of wherever I race, although I've had more than 500 winners in the UK, I still celebrate each win I get now as if it was my first.
“I've got to say though, I think the Melbourne Cup is the greatest show on earth.”
 


Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Brian Mc on 2018-Oct-29, 05:54 PM


Ladbrokes have an interesting market. Barriers. Only 113%


What a load of rubbish!
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Oct-29, 06:06 PM
Wenona, my punting on the Cup has also diminished . It is now zero. Prefer to wait to Kyneton Cup day on the Wednesday.

I agree Gunbower.  My interest these days is in the country cups and the 3YO classics. 

I am not bitter about it though.  Things change.  I had a 40 year love affair with the race and it was a wonderful saga.  I saw things I never thought I would ever see like the Diva's three-peat and Michelle's triumph on the Weir horse.  I am well satisfied. 

But I couldn't name a half a dozen horses that will contest the race on Tuesday, and I doesn't bother me that I can't.  I have tomatoes to plant and brews to bottle, and bottles to be drunk.   It's a question of priorities.

 :beer:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-29, 07:13 PM
Another home brewer.    emthup  
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Oct-29, 08:09 PM
My word.    I passed the point of no return a long time ago. 

While I firmly believe that there is no such thing as bad beer (although the Vietnamese test my faith) there is certainly better beer and the beer that I brew is better than the beer I can buy.  Besides I have no intention of paying tax on beer, not at the rate I drink it.  And it couldn't be simpler. All you need is a little experience, to make a few mistakes that you will not make again and just  a little patience.

Cup weekend is when I brew my Christmas ales including the presents for all males of drinking age.  And don't they line up.   It is also the weekend I plant out the Summer vegie patch.  Thirsty work.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-29, 08:39 PM
I still love it and Magic Circle is the one to beat
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: gunbower on 2018-Oct-29, 08:42 PM
Great way to illustrate your memories of the Cup Tontonan and equally wonderful not to be bitter how it has changed forever. I really have little interest in who all these overseas horses are , or who the billionaire Williams has purchased this year so he can claim another scalp. The real history of the race in my time is in the Piping Lanes, the Rogan Joshs, the Kiwis, the Prince of Penzances, or even the  consecutive years where the local grown Champions, Might and Power and Saintly won the Cup. That is the Cup I identified with. But as you have wonderfully pointed out, just enjoy the memories. By the way good luck with the Christmas brew and even the tomato crop.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-29, 09:16 PM
Without getting too critical of the o/s or local runner debates, you will find most of the crowd who watch the race live or on tv at the office etc don’t care who is running or backing as they don’t follow racing like a sport.

For many it is a one party / bet of the year and the spectacle is the race that stops the nation. For purists like many punters, it is not the same quality as the WFA G1 races or the Derbies etc.

However the spring carnival raiders like the Everest is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Our memories will not fade but we have to accept it is now a different era and is no longer just a race but a party etc.

I also hate to say it but the quality of our stayers is a problem we created with the breeding focus on the 2YOs and speed etc. The European influence will help us in the long term.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-30, 12:18 AM
My word.    I passed the point of no return a long time ago. 

While I firmly believe that there is no such thing as bad beer (although the Vietnamese test my faith) there is certainly better beer and the beer that I brew is better than the beer I can buy.  Besides I have no intention of paying tax on beer, not at the rate I drink it.  And it couldn't be simpler. All you need is a little experience, to make a few mistakes that you will not make again and just  a little patience.

Cup weekend is when I brew my Christmas ales including the presents for all males of drinking age.  And don't they line up.   It is also the weekend I plant out the Summer vegie patch.  Thirsty work.


Without getting off topic too much, do you all grain?  What styles do you prefer?


Disagree about bad beer.  I reckon there's plenty of it about and a lot of it local. 


Having said that, craft beer is on the rise and Oz is all the better for it!  :drinks:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Oct-30, 07:01 AM
I've always felt that Monsun is the staying influence Australia needs.....the number of his sons who can stand up to the firm tracks here is pretty clear.

It's really heartening to see Fiorente producing some likely prospects and hopefully can get both his sons  into the Derby.

It also clear that asking 500 kg plus animals to gallop full bore on very hard ground is just asking too much.

My eyes in the 2015 cup, unfortunately for me were on Red Cadeaux and I saw his faltering stride......not much fun for me after that.
He was one horse who amazed me with his ability to handle the firm Flemington track year after year, but it got him in the end.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Oct-30, 07:50 AM
Without getting off topic too much, do you all grain?  What styles do you prefer?
Disagree about bad beer.  I reckon there's plenty of it about and a lot of it local. 
Having said that, craft beer is on the rise and Oz is all the better for it!  :drinks:

I have set up a separate thread for brewing discussions.

http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/lifestyle-talk/do-you-brew/new/?topicseen#new (http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/lifestyle-talk/do-you-brew/new/?topicseen#new)

 I have to run right now but I want to get back to it later in the day.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Oct-30, 03:43 PM
It also clear that asking 500 kg plus animals to gallop full bore on very hard ground is just asking too much.

I am just wondering how you account for the previous 157 years of the race before it became clear ?   
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Oct-30, 04:30 PM
I am just wondering how you account for the previous 157 years of the race before it became clear ?
It became clear to me when I took some fresh eyes to it.

One of the 1st Melbourne Cups I had a bet in was in 1971 where I backed Skint Dip.........so that accounts for 47 years.

I know you keep stats so you can check out the results.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-30, 05:20 PM
There are 47 nominations left according to Racing Australia


Last 10 Horse Sex Age Trainer Ballot Weight
1 x3195x1111 BEST SOLUTION (IRE) H 5 Saeed Bin Suroor 1 57.5kg
2 3326x11114 AVILIUS (GB) G 5 James Cummings 2 54.5kg
3 5462x02410 ACE HIGH H 4 David Payne 3 55kg
4 x512433x43 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE) H 5 Aidan O'Brien 4 56.5kg
5 57x150x11x MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) G 7 Ian Williams 5 56kg
6 x6731x7694 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) G 10 Chris Waller 6 55.5kg
7 x3x56x0200 TOSEN BASIL (JPN) H 7 Darren Weir 7 55.5kg
8 1796x4341x MUNTAHAA (IRE) G 6 John Gosden 8 55.5kg
9 5x211250x0 CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) H 5 Yoshito Yahagi 9 55.5kg
10 144x1132x0 SOUND CHECK (GER) H 6 Michael Moroney 10 55.5kg
11 3x41922515 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) H 4 Aidan O'Brien 11 51kg
12 1x69x2112x MARMELO (GB) H 6 Hughie Morrison 12 55kg
13 11x24112x CROSS COUNTER (GB) G 4 Charlie Appleby 13 51kg
14 11113x6327 YOUNGSTAR M 4 Chris Waller 14 51.5kg
15 3x15x53314 DURETTO (GB) G 7 Andrew Balding 15 54.5kg
16 2x436013x1 YUCATAN (IRE) H 5 Aidan O'Brien 16 54.5kg
17 21x05x4059 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) G 7 Michael Moroney 17 54kg
18 7829x79401 VENTURA STORM (IRE) G 6 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 18 54kg
19 x5x0x08030 RED CARDINAL (IRE) G 7 Darren Weir 19 54kg
20 56164x5266 AUVRAY (FR) G 8 Richard Freedman 20 54kg
21 1x14222250 RED VERDON (USA) H 6 Ed Dunlop 21 54kg
22 13x655x1x3 FINCHE (GB) H 5 Chris Waller 22 54kg
23 231130x341 RUNAWAY R 4 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 23 52kg
24 58402x0080 ZACADA (NZ) G 6 Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman 24 53kg
25 14513x0147 SIR CHARLES ROAD G 5 Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott 25 53kg
26 1x5x005770 NAKEETA (GB) G 8 Iain Jardine 26 53kg
27 32x03705x0 SOLE IMPACT (JPN) H 7 Hirofumi Toda 27 53kg
28 337x351076 MISS ADMIRATION M 4 Mick Price 28 50kg
29 x2188632x3 A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) G 6 Charlie Fellowes 29 53kg
30 x420x83783 LIBRAN (IRE) G 8 Chris Waller 30 53kg
31 6x63211752 TRAP FOR FOOLS G 5 Jarrod McLean 31 53kg
32 9066x9x390 PRIZE MONEY (GB) G 6 Saeed Bin Suroor 32 52.5kg
33 31105x0248 GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) H 6 Darren Weir 33 52.5kg
34 4x39770x36 LORD FANDANGO (GER) H 6 Archie Alexander 34 52.5kg
35 x16313x507 MEGABLAST (NZ) G 7 Darren Weir 35 52.5kg
36 x6x10x2468 DAL HARRAILD (GB) G 6 Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 36 52.5kg
37 48x220x040 WALL OF FIRE (IRE) H 6 Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 37 52.5kg
38 114656x641 PATRICK ERIN (NZ) G 7 Chris Waller 38 52kg
39 x04331x220 RISING RED (NZ) G 5 Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young 39 51kg
40 1119x45842 NORTHWEST PASSAGE G 5 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 40 50.5kg
41 1x22x33222 BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) G 5 Chris Waller 41 50kg
42 4421x22630 YOGI (NZ) G 6 Darren Weir 42 50kg
43 33x1x61812 JAAMEH (IRE) G 6 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 43 50kg
44 164x0x0254 MIDTERM (GB) G 6 Liam Howley 44 50kg
45 0x55211x31 SIXTIES GROOVE (IRE) G 6 Darren Weir 45 50.5kg
46 12x0873521 AZURO (FR) G 5 Darren Weir 46= 50kg
47 131131 THINKIN’ BIG C 3 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 46= 49kg

Did I read that Duretto was doubtful?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-30, 06:25 PM
Yucatan is now Yucatan Ire apparently.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: specialweek2 on 2018-Oct-30, 06:36 PM
Yucatan is now Yucatan Ire apparently.
No all overseas runners that had name changes are back to their original.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-30, 07:14 PM
In todays paper it says otherwise. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-30, 07:32 PM
But you're right, they have reverted back!  That was quick.

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: sobig on 2018-Oct-30, 07:43 PM
Duretto hurt himself at the weekend and is doubtful.

He was scheduled to have a bone scan late today to determine his immediate future
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-30, 09:48 PM
Yucatan keeps shortening but will he go undergo a vets check prior to final declarations. This is more to do with him missing the CC.

Unlike previous years, he maybe the only horse to start in single digits.

If he draws the car park, the market will be interesting as hardly any rain es expected this week.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Oct-30, 10:11 PM
We're talking Melbourne here.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: sobig on 2018-Oct-31, 05:17 PM
Duretto out


Racing Victoria
‏Verified account @RacingInsider
4m4 minutes ago

Racing Victoria stewards advise that the Andrew Balding-trained Duretto has been ruled out of the Spring Racing Carnival after tests revealed the horse has sustained a stress fracture in his left foreleg
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2018-Oct-31, 07:39 PM
Is Yucatan really entitled to be hot fave, based on his single wild to the eye run in  the Herbert power?
Many starting to drop off.
Did they really slow up mid section and flatter his run?
Is he simply a horse that has thrived down under.?
I am starting to get cold feet about him.
Dunno why...maybe quality of opposition he beat nagging away at me.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-31, 08:06 PM
The barrier draw will have an impact as there is not that pace upfront unless one of the Europeans decides to take off a bit so there will be huge jostling again.

There are going to be some long priced runners in the MC this year,
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-02, 06:22 AM
Cup setback for Red Verdon

Connections of UK raider Red Verdon remain confident about his Melbourne Cup prospects despite a minor setback that forced him to miss a key piece of work on Thursday morning.

The Ed Dunlop-trained stayer appeared to shift a plate overnight, causing bruising and minor swelling to the area around his near fore hoof.

Damien Oliver, who has been booked for Tuesday’s $7.5 million Cup, was due to partner Red Verdon in a grass gallop, however, the horse was instead attended to by the farrier and inspected by Racing Victoria vets.

Travelling foreman Robin Trevor-Jones said that while the situation was not ideal, the six-year-old could still line up in the Melbourne Cup if given the all-clear to complete a piece of work on Saturday morning.

https://www.racing.com/news/2018-11-01/news-cup-setback-for-red-verdon
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-02, 06:53 AM
With the official withdrawal of Duretto, that means #24 spot is Sir Charles Road. One above him is #23 Zacada.

In the Lexus on Saturday, the following horses are engaged and will need to win (the number being ballot order):

26 SOLE IMPACT
27 MISS ADMIRATION
28 A PRINCE OF ARRAN
29 LIBRAN
32 GALLIC CHIEFTAIN
37 PATRICK ERIN
38 RISING RED
39 NORTHWEST PASSAGE
40 BRIMHAM ROCKS
41 YOGI
42 JAAMEH
Not Qual. SIXTIES GROOVE

A win by 22 RUNAWAY will knock them all out.

The other race of interest is the Derby where the owners can pay some enormous late entry fee to start.

Gai has openly stated that she will start Thinkin' Big in the Cup if the $3.30 favourite wins (I had a few dollars on him at $67 for The Cup - that is an attractive price under the circumstance the rationale being that if he wins the Derby as easily he did the Norman Robinson then he will be significantly shorter come race time).

Import 25 NAKEETA will be relying on a few above him not accepting - historically the #25 qualified is close to certain to get a start but he runs the risk of being pushed down the order to as low as #27 should Thinkin' Big and one of those above win the Lexus. Brett Prebble has been notionally engaged for the Cup ride.


Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-02, 07:15 AM
If Thinkin' Big does win the Derby and accepts for The Cup he will be only having his 8th start in a race.

I was trying to recall a horse in recent times that has had few starts that ran in the Cup (in past days a lightly raced horse in The Cup was not an uncommon occurrence).

Maluckyday was having his 9th race start when 2nd to Americain in the 2010 Cup.

Poseidon was having his 14th start when winning the 1906 Cup.

The unbeaten Grand Flaneur won the Cup at his 5th race start 5 days before they hanged Ned Kelly back in 1880.   :biggrin:



Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Nov-02, 09:03 AM
They are falling by the wayside at the moment. Red Verdon was unlucky in the CC but with the injury cloud, odds will lengthen. Expected to start nevertheless.

Thinking Big will carry 1kg below WFA if he wins the Derby and starts. That will mean he is the worst weighted horse when compared to the others. Top weight is the 2nd worst.

I stand to be corrected but horses who run on Derby day rarely back up convincingly in the last decade with the European trainers changing the way stayers are prepared these days. Also the Mackinnon changing has had an impact too. I do hope the Lexis winner runs well in the Cup as it will be good for the Cup in the future.


Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Nov-02, 11:04 AM
Nothin' Leica Dane ran second in the cup at his 8th start in his first preparation having won his Warwick Farm debut on 20 August.  Thinkin' Big has come through the Spring Champion and Norman Robinson, the same approach as NLD. 

Gai has been here before and knows what she is doing.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pwa54 on 2018-Nov-02, 11:11 AM
Martini-Henry won the Cup in 1883 at his second start, his first was winning the VRC Derby.

I don't think he'll get there, but it would be good to see Thinkin' Big run in the Cup.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Nov-03, 06:04 PM
Interesting barrier draw. I am a bit suprised how quickly Yucatan's odds have drifted.

A couple of them have at 5.5 and 6. Ace High drawing inside of him will cause a bit of uncertainty if they decide to hook him back too after his CC failure when he led.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Nov-03, 07:28 PM
Race 7 - 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES) Times displayed in local time of Race Meeting
Of $7,050,000.1st $4,000,000, 2nd $1,000,000, 3rd $500,000, 4th $300,000, 5th $200,000, 6th $150,000, 7th $150,000, 8th $150,000, 9th $150,000, 10th $150,000, 11th $150,000, 12th $150,000
Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution GROUP 1
Handicap, Minimum Weight 49kg, Apprentices cannot claim.

Track Name: Main Track Type: Turf

Field Limit: 24

No    Last 10    Horse    Trainer    Jockey    Barrier    Weight    Penalty    Hcp Rating
1    x3195x1111    BEST SOLUTION (IRE)    Saeed Bin Suroor    Pat Cosgrave    6    57.5kg       114
2    x512433x43    THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE)    Aidan O'Brien    Ryan Moore    9    56.5kg       112
3    57x150x11x    MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE)    Ian Williams    Corey Brown    17    56kg       111
4    5x211250x0    CHESTNUT COAT (JPN)    Yoshito Yahagi    Yuga Kawada    4    55.5kg       110
5    1796x4341x    MUNTAHAA (IRE)    John Gosden    Jim Crowley    13    55.5kg       110
6    144x1132x0    SOUND CHECK (GER)    Michael Moroney    Jordan Childs    16    55.5kg       110
7    x6731x7694    WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ)    Chris Waller    Ben Melham    18    55.5kg       110
8    5462x02410    ACE HIGH    David Payne    Tye Angland    22    55kg       110
9    1x69x2112x    MARMELO (GB)    Hughie Morrison    Hugh Bowman    10    55kg       109
10    3326x11114    AVILIUS (GB)    James Cummings    Glyn Schofield    11    54.5kg    1.5kg    109
11    2x436013x1    YUCATAN (IRE)    Aidan O'Brien    James McDonald    23    54.5kg    2.5kg    108
12    56164x5266    AUVRAY (FR)    Richard Freedman    Tommy Berry    1    54kg       107
13    13x655x1x3    FINCHE (GB)    Chris Waller    Zac Purton    15    54kg       107
14    x5x0x08030    RED CARDINAL (IRE)    Darren Weir    Damien Oliver    5    54kg       102
15    21x05x4059    VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE)    Michael Moroney    Patrick Moloney    2    54kg       104
16    7829x79401    VENTURA STORM (IRE)    David & B Hayes & T Dabernig    Mark Zahra    7    54kg       105
17    2188632x31    A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)    Charlie Fellowes    Michael Walker    20    53kg       105
18    1x5x005770    NAKEETA (GB)    Iain Jardine    Regan Bayliss    3    53kg       105
19    4513x01473    SIR CHARLES ROAD    Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott    Dwayne Dunn    14    53kg       102
20    58402x0080    ZACADA (NZ)    Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman    Damian Lane    24    53kg       100
21    231130x341    RUNAWAY    Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott    Stephen Baster    12    52kg    1.5kg    102
22    11113x6327    YOUNGSTAR    Chris Waller    Craig Williams    8    51.5kg       107
23    11x24112x    CROSS COUNTER (GB)    Charlie Appleby    Kerrin McEvoy    19    51kg       109
24    3x41922515    ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)    Aidan O'Brien    Wayne Lordan    21    51kg       109
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2018-Nov-03, 08:28 PM
Starting to think crazy stuff.
One minute I am considering topweight.
Next minute Marmelo, seasoned now.
Then the obvious top 2 faves.
Then Wallers lightweight mare.Round n round we go. :shrug:
Can not pick it.  :lol:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-03, 09:06 PM
I begin my search now.  God bless you YouTube.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-03, 09:10 PM
firezuki,

Your main pick was unlucky today - normally only see horses blocked for a run like that at the red hots!

Fours
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-04, 01:57 AM
Updated in the OP

Race 7 - 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES)

Of $7,050,000.1st $4,000,000, 2nd $1,000,000, 3rd $500,000, 4th $300,000, 5th $200,000, 6th $150,000, 7th $150,000, 8th $150,000, 9th $150,000, 10th $150,000, 11th $150,000, 12th $150,000

No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Hcp Rating
1 x3195x1111 BEST SOLUTION (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor Pat Cosgrave 6 57.5kg
114
2 x512433x43 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Ryan Moore 9 56.5kg
112
3 57x150x11x MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) Ian Williams Corey Brown 17 56kg
111
4 5x211250x0 CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) Yoshito Yahagi Yuga Kawada 4 55.5kg
110
5 1796x4341x MUNTAHAA (IRE) John Gosden Jim Crowley 13 55.5kg
110
6 144x1132x0 SOUND CHECK (GER) Michael Moroney Jordan Childs 16 55.5kg
110
7 x6731x7694 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) Chris Waller Ben Melham 18 55.5kg
110
8 5462x02410 ACE HIGH David Payne Tye Angland 22 55kg
110
9 1x69x2112x MARMELO (GB) Hughie Morrison Hugh Bowman 10 55kg
109
10 3326x11114 AVILIUS (GB) James Cummings Glyn Schofield 11 54.5kg 1.5kg 109
11 2x436013x1 YUCATAN (IRE) Aidan O'Brien James McDonald 23 54.5kg 2.5kg 108
12 56164x5266 AUVRAY (FR) Richard Freedman Tommy Berry 1 54kg
107
13 13x655x1x3 FINCHE (GB) Chris Waller Zac Purton 15 54kg
107
14 x5x0x08030 RED CARDINAL (IRE) Darren Weir Damien Oliver 5 54kg
102
15 21x05x4059 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) Michael Moroney Patrick Moloney 2 54kg
104
16 7829x79401 VENTURA STORM (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Mark Zahra 7 54kg
105
17 2188632x31 A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie Fellowes Michael Walker 20 53kg
105
18 1x5x005770 NAKEETA (GB) Iain Jardine Regan Bayliss 3 53kg
105
19 4513x01473 SIR CHARLES ROAD Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott Dwayne Dunn 14 53kg
102
20 58402x0080 ZACADA (NZ) Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman Damian Lane 24 53kg
100
21 231130x341 RUNAWAY Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Stephen Baster 12 52kg 1.5kg 102
22 11113x6327 YOUNGSTAR Chris Waller Craig Williams 8 51.5kg
107
23 11x24112x CROSS COUNTER (GB) Charlie Appleby Kerrin McEvoy 19 51kg
109
24 3x41922515 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Wayne Lordan 21 51kg
109
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-04, 02:38 AM
The handicapper's ratings range from 100 (Zacada) up to 114 (Best Solution) - not sure of past years but that seems a pretty narrow range suggesting an open race.

There are also a few horses who are not really proven at distances much longer than 2400m, including

Best Solution
The Cliffsofmoher
Ace High
Yucatan
Youngstar
Cross Counter
Rostropovich

But is that a valid stat?

Last year's winner Rekindling had won over 2800m.

Almandin's longest win was over 2500m leading into the Cup.

Prince Of Penzance had won (and run 2nd) in consecutive MV Cups.

Protectionist had won over 3000m

Fiorente had run 2nd in the previous Melbourne Cup

You have to go back to Green Moon (2012) to find a Cup winner who hadn't won past 2500m leading into the Cup.

Dunaden in 2011 had a 3000m win.

Americain had won over 3100m

Shocking won the Lexus leading into the Cup

Viewed had only won up to 2400m (Brisbane Cup)

So that is 80% of the past 10 winners had a 2500m or more race to their credit going into the Melbourne Cup that they won.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-04, 03:47 AM
firezuki,

Your main pick was unlucky today - normally only see horses blocked for a run like that at the red hots!

Fours


Who was that Fours?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-04, 03:52 AM
I started with Avilius, then saw Yucatan's Herbert Power (unfortuately so did everyone else) and was also


impressed with Magic Circles last run/win. 


I usually pare the field down to around 10 and then go to work from there.


I shall be a busy boy for a couple of days.


I backed Homesman in the Caulfield Cup and that bloody German kept finding - something I think he's going to do Tues.


But can he win as topweight? 


Muntahaa is intriguing and I need to have a closer look. 


He's giving Ventura Storm 1.5 kilos for being beaten by that horse by 10 lengths in the St Leger over 2937m. 


Ventura Storm has since franked that form and must be considered. 


A Prince of Arran is going to look the winner at some stage to I reckon. 


Also need to see more of Cross Counter. 


Countless replays coming!   I love the Cup. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-04, 07:48 AM


Cup preview form-guides on free-to-air TV?

............anyone aware of the scheduling of a TV form guide, please?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-04, 07:50 AM
firezuki,

Apologies I was referring to the wrong A horse Amphitrite.

Fours
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: gunbower on 2018-Nov-04, 07:59 AM
Also looking forward to Tuesday. Four of us are playing golf. Ten years ago we would all have been at Flemington or Eagle Farm (remember that place ). No interest in " our " Cup these days.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Nov-04, 08:02 AM

Cup preview form-guides on free-to-air TV?

............anyone aware of the scheduling of a TV form guide, please?
Channel 78.....9 pm -10.30 tonight
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-04, 09:07 AM


Thanks N -- I still cannot find any schedule for what is on 68/78.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Nov-04, 10:36 AM
There is also a Melbourne Cup marathon of previous cups on Monday night on channel 529. Might be something to enjoy over the Christmas break.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Nov-04, 02:10 PM

Thanks N -- I still cannot find any schedule for what is on 68/78.

I can.  I spent two minutes on Google and found three tv guides that listed the schedule. 

Try it. Google your city and 'tv guide'.  It's not rocket science.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-04, 04:34 PM


Thank you Tonto
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-04, 04:38 PM
I can.  I spent two minutes on Google and found three tv guides that listed the schedule. 

Try it. Google your city and 'tv guide'.  It's not rocket science.

It was always there. Just Mair and his falsehoods again
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-04, 05:13 PM
I can.  I spent two minutes on Google and found three tv guides that listed the schedule. 

Try it. Google your city and 'tv guide'.  It's not rocket science.

So Pete should google 'La La Land TV Guide'.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2018-Nov-04, 06:20 PM
Muntahaa certainly does need studying.
Supposedly highly strung....hmmm.
Up to Flemington Tuesday?
But something bout him , also..guess I am building my top 8 or so here.
Last minute bet, if he is settled, would be strategy..
no early bets for this fella..until he is striding up to the gates happily.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-04, 06:23 PM
He seems to have lost quite a few times to others also in the field  :chin:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-04, 06:48 PM
He was gelded at the end of the UK racing season last year and under went a re learning process.

Ebor winner Muntahaa can handle Melbourne Cup heat
LEO SCHLINK, Herald Sun
November 1, 2018 6:59pm

   
CHAMPION jockey Jim Crowley is confident notoriously volatile Muntahaa will cope with Melbourne Cup pressure as John Gosden attempts to add another golden touch to an incredible season.

Regarded as highly-strung – and highly talented – Muntahaa is following the same pathway to Flemington as previous Ebor Handicap winners Heartbreak City and Nakeeta.

While Heartbreak City (second in 2016) and Nakeeta (fifth in ’17) ran well without winning, Crowley believes the enigmatic Muntahaa can create history despite concerns over the horse’s fragility.

“Obviously you would have concerns (about his temperament)…but he’s growing up, he’s getting mentally better as he is gets older,” Crowley, Britain’s champion flat rider, said.

“Hopefully he can take it all in. He’s a strong traveler. He used to pull hard in his younger days but he’s got better in his last few starts.”

Crowley said Gosden had reformed the rebellious grey, curbing his cantankerous instincts.

“Things just weren’t going right for him at the time (as a young horse) and they gelded him,” Crowley said.

“John Gosden is just an unbelievable trainer and he decided to start again with him and take him back to square one.

“That’s why we saw him win the Ebor the way he did.

“He’s a strong traveller and in the Ebor he was the last horse off the bridle.

“He’s quick enough. He’s won over a mile and a half in Group races.”

Gosden has dominated European racing this season with superstars Enable, Cracksman and Stradivarius.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-04, 06:54 PM


Darryl Sherer
26 August 2018


Muntahaa and Weekender gave John Gosden the quinella in Saturday’s £500,000 Ebor Handicap (1m6f) at York with the winner a possible Melbourne Cup entry.

The top weight Weekender went for home early in the straight and struck the front briefly before Muntahaa (11/1) came though with a smooth challenge to win going away by 3-1/4 lengths over Weekender (15/2) with Sea The Lion (9/1) a further 1-3/4 lengths away third.

The 3/1 favourite Stratum found some trouble in running and never threatened as a winning chance, beaten 9-1/4 lengths into 12th place.

"His ability was never in doubt. It was just a case of getting him in good form mentally,” Angus Gold, racing manager to Muntahaa's owner Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, told the Sporting Life.

“John said to me last week he had never had this horse better.”

Asked about a possible Melbourne Cup tilt, Gold was more cautious.

"If entries haven't closed yet, we'll put him in,” Gold said. “Whether he'd take to it mentally with the hustle and bustle, I don't know.”

A five-year-old son of Dansili, Muntahaa was gelded at the end of last season. As a three-year-old he defeated Marmelo by six lengths to win his Maiden on the synthetic surface at Kepnton over a mile and a half.

Prior to the Ebor he finished fourth behind Best Solution in the Group II Princess Of Wales’s Stakes over a mile and a half at Newmarket and is rated a $34 for the Melbourne Cup with Sportsbet.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-04, 08:55 PM


Is it published when was Ventura Storm gelded, please? 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-05, 06:16 AM
why do you want to know
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Nov-05, 06:59 AM

Is it published when was Ventura Storm gelded, please?
It can be difficult to find exactly when a horse was gelded.

I'm sure I heard D.Hayes state that Ventura Storm was gelded and had a wind operation after the Sydney cup.

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-05, 07:15 AM
Yes he did Nem :thumbsup:
Also appeared in all the form guides thus highlighting the dishonest question by Mair
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Arsenal on 2018-Nov-05, 08:45 AM
Williams firm in his belief track needs more water
MATT JONES


BIG CHANCE: Nick Williams.

NICK Williams, the owner of Melbourne Cup favourite Yucatan, has implored Flemington track manager Liam O’Keeffe to “turn the taps on” ahead of tomorrow’s meeting after concerns over the firmness of the track for Derby Day on Saturday.

The track was rated a good three on Saturday but Williams, who also has The Cliffsofmoher running tomorrow, said the track needed more water despite the forecast for rain today and tomorrow.

O’Keeffe did apply 5mm of irrigation to the track shortly after Saturday’s meeting.

“I was fortunate that I was a spectator on Saturday and I’m pleased we didn’t have any of our horses there because I can guarantee you there are a lot of sore horses to come out of that race day,” Williams said.

“I spent a fair bit of time in the mounting yard and I probably had 10 or 15 jockeys tell me it was ridiculously firm and it’s something the authorities need to look at.”

Williams received support from Magic Circle’s trainer Ian Williams but not from Charlie Fellowes, who will saddle up Saturday’s Lexus Stakes winner A Prince Of Arran.

“Leave the track alone,” he said at Werribee yesterday.

Despite the track worries, Williams said the strong international presence meant the Cup was no longer just the race that stopped a nation.

“It’s getting close to the race that stops the world,” he said.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained five-year-old Yucatan will again be partnered by jockey James McDonald but has eased slightly as favourite after drawing wide in gate 23.

Williams warned rivals that the $6 Ladbrokes favourite was going even better than when he won the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) at Caulfield on October 13.

“He was more impressive than we could have hoped for and I can certainly say that after talking to Aidan’s people, he has come on from the race,” Williams said. “Hindsight has shown us that we’ve done the right thing in skipping the Caulfield Cup with him.”ENDS

Leave the track alone the weather is predicted to bring some moisture......I hope the track manager doesn't lissen to Williams.

Giddy Up :beer:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: arthur on 2018-Nov-05, 09:03 AM
https://andrewhawkinsracing.com.au/2018/11/05/your-complete-guide-to-the-2018-melbourne-cup-by-andrew-hawkins/

If there is a more comprehensive guide out there, please let me know  :beer:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-05, 09:12 AM
Arthur,

See Wednesdays papers!

Your journalists writes off my roughy -love that!

Fours

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2018-Nov-05, 10:40 AM
Watched ABC news last night and they ran an item on the Cup. Typically ABC it was all negative about the race...too many internationals in the race.....we should breed more stayers....race is losing its appeal to Australians... Adam Sangster lamenting the under-usage of his staying stallions .... Mick Kent saying how difficult to get a runner in the race..etc etc

I know most on this forum would agree with most of those sentiments, however I doubt the race is losing its appeal to the average Australian. Most of the crowd at the Cup would not know one end of a horse from the other, they attend for the party, however, because from the middle of the year, the Cup has travelled the world from the UK & Ireland and to school kids, nursing homes, community centres all over Australia  I believe the race has been taken to a new level in the non-racing community.


Either the ABC was unaware of the Cup's travels over the past 6 months or for their own reasons were downplaying the relevance of the Melbourne Cup.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Nov-05, 11:29 AM
This forum seems hung up on 'positivity' issues. 

There is nothing in the ABC article that suggests that the Cup is any less popular with the public than it has always been and unlike some of the commercial carriers the ABC has no vested interest in talking up the race or joining in the hype.     Why everything the ABC covers needs to be portrayed as some sort of conspiracy is beyond me. 

All the issues covered in the article have been done over a thousand times in racing forums and they are perfectly valid.   All Aunty is doing is exposing them to a broader public who is otherwise being bombarded by racing positivity, hype and spin.   There is balance in that.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2018-Nov-05, 12:07 PM
The VRC , who run the Cup, are part of the 'establishment ', which is the complete apathy of lefty ABC
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2018-Nov-05, 12:56 PM


Here's old Bubba (reds under every bed) Smith carrying on like a pork chop again.
 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-05, 01:31 PM
This is what we need to liven up the Melbourne Cup thread - a good old political stoush!!

Let's get into it   :biggrin:

The ABC are part of the "New Age Politically Correct".

Following Horse Racing = Gambling = Vermin Filth (but somewhat hypocritically it is OK to have a flutter on the Cup).

They would have been buoyed by the reaction to The Everest Opera House beat up so why shouldn't The Cup cop some as well.

Melbourne Cup in need of fairytale horse to capture nation's heart

It might be going a bit far to suggest Winx has ruined this Melbourne Cup.

But for the equine day-tripper, the absence of the highest-profile horse from Australia's biggest race seems a bit like Virat Kohli not playing Test matches or Cristiano Ronaldo absenting himself from the World Cup.

...

As many have bemoaned, the domination of so-called "international raiders" and foreign-bred horses imported specifically for the race has unquestionably diminished the romance.

Not just because the so-called bush battlers have next to no chance of even making the field, but because we have very little time to get to know the fly-in-fly-out runners or even the locally trained imports before the starter's light is flashing.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-05/melbourne-cup-2018-missing-fairytale-horse-to-capture-hearts/10464082
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-05, 02:36 PM
Only four runners have been sired by horses that have sired previous winners - Vengeur Masque, Youngstar, Ace High and Red Cardinal.

Year Winner Sire Runners This Year
2017 Rekindling High Chaparral Ace High, Youngstar
2016 Almandin Monsun Vengeur Masque
2015 Prince Of Penzance Pentire
2014 Protectionist Monsun Vengeur Masque
2013 Fiorente Monsun Vengeur Masque
2012 Green Moon Montjeu Red Cardinal
2011 Dunaden Nicobar
2010 Americain Dynaformer
2009 Shocking Street Cry
2008 Viewed Scenic

Galileo is the sire of 101 stakes winners and is the sire of Cliffsofmoher and Yucatan, as well as Frankel who is the sire of Finche and Rostropovich.

Zabeel is represented by Zacada.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Nov-05, 04:11 PM
Zacada being by Zabeel would then make him the 5th runner......or is this just a last 10yr thing?

Better give the other grandson of Galileo, Cross Counter a mention just in case he wins.

Never stops though because Who Shot Thebarman is a grandson of Sir Tristram.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Nov-05, 04:34 PM
 

  :clap2:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Arsenal on 2018-Nov-05, 06:19 PM

THE LETSGOHORSERACING tip for the MELBOURNE CUP is the FAVORITE YUCATAN despite his wide draw.
Our heart tells us that James Cummings can continue the Cup dynasty of his grand-father with rising staying star AVELIUS but our head points to YUCATAN after his freakish win in the Herbert Power.
YOUNGSTAR was our original tip until Kerrin McEvoy jumped off to ride CROSS COUNTER so we relegated this pair and decided to stick with that four for our TRIFECTA BET.

YUCATAN – AVELIUS – CROSS COUNTER - YOUNGSTAR 

Giddy Up :beer:

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-05, 06:26 PM
Thanks arsey
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-05, 07:06 PM
The three most likely crazy form reversals for the Melbourne Cup (In Order)


Sound Check $55

Last Start: 12th Caulfield Cup beaten 10 lengths.

Reversal factor:  Tempo & Riding Tactics
. From his wide barrier he was checked behind the field and then trapped second last on the fence in a very slow tempo. Got fired up and tossed his head around fighting his jockey for a good half mile. Childs was powerless to do anything as he was blocked in front and covered on the outside. Finally went back to last then went three wide to get some running room. Finally settled three wide then got dropped when the moves went on. Not surprising for a horse that’s won three of five at 2800m or more and won his only start at 3200m. On his previous start he meets Best Solution 2kgs better for running second behind that horse beaten just 0.3 lengths in a German Group1 WFA over a less suitable 2400m.  In that race he ran very wide on the turn and was really mowing down the winner at the finish. Looks an ideal 3200m type. Edit : Jockey Jordan Childs has also said he feels he rode the horse 'wrongly' in the Caulfield Cup and he will let him stride along in the Cup. Best Solution is $12.50 and this bloke is currently $55.


Ace High $140

Last Start: Ran 15th in the Caulfield Cup beaten 11 lengths.

Reversal factor: Going – if you isolate this blokes starts on wet ground you get six starts without a placing and on the WFA adjusted ratings I use none of those runs rate in his best ten. Last start the Caulfield Cup was on slow ground and he blew dramatically when the rain came. Ignore his wet form and he’s a last start Group 2 winner at WFA with a career high rating. Won the Derby last year over 2500m. Looks like the rain for Tuesday may not eventuate. Opened $11 in the Caulfield Cup I just took $140 for Tuesday – if the goings firm that looks like an over reaction to the poor run for a classic winner.


Chestnut Coat $85

Last Start: 13th Caulfield Cup beaten 10 lengths.

Reversal factor:  Tempo & Going . Raced wide and got some late interference in the Caulfield Cup and the way the Caulfield Cup was run. I thought he was a bit disappointing late last start (probably not tested after being held up) but he did race wide, got checked and race tempo was very unusual. I’ve seen a couple of ratings based assessments using his previous Japanese form and he is way shorter than the $85 available on Betfair. Not sure how he’s settled in but if you can find a forgive for the Caulfield Cup run he’s overs. Edit: I've added going here as he had never run on a wet track before the Caulfield Cup. While there's no priors on wet ground it could also be given as an excuse for a reversal.


I didn’t include Youngstar because I think the issues around her run in the Caulfield Cup are well disclosed. Also the fact she ran very quick final sectionals despite finishing 7th is well publicised. She’s also well in the market and I don’t think her winning will cause any real dismay.

I also haven’t included any runner who was beaten in the Cox Plate as I think it’s fair to say they were competing out of their depth as a preparation run. (That doesn’t mean they weren’t trying Pete).
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Nov-05, 07:14 PM
  When can we expect Peter's  TIPS and reasoning?. 

 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: specialweek2 on 2018-Nov-05, 07:16 PM

THE LETSGOHORSERACING tip for the MELBOURNE CUP is the FAVORITE YUCATAN despite his wide draw.
Our heart tells us that James Cummings can continue the Cup dynasty of his grand-father with rising staying star AVELIUS but our head points to YUCATAN after his freakish win in the Herbert Power.
YOUNGSTAR was our original tip until Kerrin McEvoy jumped off to ride CROSS COUNTER so we relegated this pair and decided to stick with that four for our TRIFECTA BET.

YUCATAN – AVELIUS – CROSS COUNTER - YOUNGSTAR 

Giddy Up :beer:
Glad you dont have to spell the horses name to bet.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-05, 08:10 PM
I'm down to 4.


Best Solution has the class, a good draw, and will be up near the speed. 
Should get a nice trip and he's bloody hard to get past.  Weighted to his best though.


Magic Circle.


His last two wins have been very impressive but again weighted to his best. 
Has the turn of foot I'm looking for but drawn poorly.  Fairly ordinary form before last two runs.
Will get the trip. 


Yucatan.


Cannot dismiss that Herbert Power but he is drawn terribly.  Raced back in that race, went around them, and left them
for dead - he just might do it again.  Not sure about the trip though.


Cross Counter


His win in the Gordon Stakes was very good and he is weighted to win.
Don't mind Mc Evoy on him either. 




Still work to do.



Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-05, 08:37 PM
Magic Circle's last two wins are his only two starts for new stable FZ.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Nov-05, 09:13 PM
This is what we need to liven up the Melbourne Cup thread - a good old political stoush!!

Let's get into it    :biggrin:  

The ABC are part of the "New Age Politically Correct".

Following Horse Racing = Gambling = Vermin Filth (but somewhat hypocritically it is OK to have a flutter on the Cup).

They would have been buoyed by the reaction to The Everest Opera House beat up so why shouldn't The Cup cop some as well.

Melbourne Cup in need of fairytale horse to capture nation's heart

It might be going a bit far to suggest Winx has ruined this Melbourne Cup.

But for the equine day-tripper, the absence of the highest-profile horse from Australia's biggest race seems a bit like Virat Kohli not playing Test matches or Cristiano Ronaldo absenting himself from the World Cup.

...

As many have bemoaned, the domination of so-called "international raiders" and foreign-bred horses imported specifically for the race has unquestionably diminished the romance.

Not just because the so-called bush battlers have next to no chance of even making the field, but because we have very little time to get to know the fly-in-fly-out runners or even the locally trained imports before the starter's light is flashing.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-05/melbourne-cup-2018-missing-fairytale-horse-to-capture-hearts/10464082

PP, start a new thread aka the Everest for all the trolls criticising the great race.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-05, 09:22 PM
Magic Circle's last two wins are his only two starts for new stable FZ.


True and you wonder what they bloody changed!


His form before the trainer swap was pretty ordinary but the two runs since are outstanding.


Hard to know what to make of it.  His owner is certainly a fruitcake - a very rich one. 



Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-05, 09:45 PM
PP, start a new thread aka the Everest for all the trolls criticising the great race.

I thought about doing that mate but I copped some blowback so reluctant to visit that again   :biggrin:

You cannot hide the fact that there are a lot of noises being made about the current format of the race aka full of international runners.

Not just the ABC, Bubba, et al.

Trainers were calling for more local qualifying races like The Bart Cummings is.

From the VRC and Racing Victoria perspective there is a lot of money making reasons to have the race internationalized.

It is a fair discussion point - but maybe on a different thread  ;)
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Nov-05, 10:15 PM
I agree totally regarding the qualifications of the Cup. I put my suggestions earlier regarding the Cup to give it a balance but it also means we may see some European horses racing prior to the cup as they have to win races here if they have not won G1 races elsewhere.

However the Cup is like free trade, if we did that, then we can expect blowback as most o/s trainers only prefer to target 1 or 2 races maximum as keeping a satellite or in quarantine areas is very expensive.

I do not know if VRC pays any costs towards their travel costs etc

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-05, 10:56 PM
My main pick is going to be Cross Counter - depending on the weather and seeing him in the mounting yard.


Very inexperienced and drawn badly but I like his last couple of wins.  Even his last start defeat had a lot of merit. 


This is a very wide open race - unlike last year when I bet with confidence. 


Should be a decent tempo but luck will still play a big part as it always does in such a big field. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: specialweek2 on 2018-Nov-05, 11:30 PM
Rain then showers possible storms.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-06, 05:18 AM
Probably three days of work for nothing.  :tears:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Nov-06, 08:26 AM

It has stopped raining for the time being and while my gauge has 12 mm in it overnight (far Eastern suburbs) Essendon Airport and Olympic Park only recorded 4.4mm overnight - but there is more coming.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-06, 08:37 AM
So are we looking at a Good 4 by start time?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Nov-06, 09:13 AM
No.  Certainly not.  It continues to rain. 

(https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w5xZvvrddDw/W-DM0ZW6cmI/AAAAAAAAMEo/h6ryz0Eb41g3lU58_03MjqZvJsSsiadJQCLcBGAs/s1600/cupweather.jpg)

The 512km shot shows what we are up against.  A band of rain moving south easterly right across Flemington.  It will rain (on and off) well into the afternoon.  Just how much rain is harder to predict.

(https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-k4DqILy-zXk/W-DPQffxgfI/AAAAAAAAME0/0AP4nC48Sp4qHVLm91TlXSQDeGer9uQTwCLcBGAs/s1600/cupweather2.jpg)
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: sobig on 2018-Nov-06, 09:46 AM
Downgraded to soft 5 (so far)
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: specialweek2 on 2018-Nov-06, 10:05 AM
Heavy 8
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-06, 10:09 AM
Finche ($27 BF reckon he'll firm)  and Who Shot Thebarman have best Heavy rates but the exposed Heavy form is very thin.

Any breeding expert got an opinion?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Arsenal on 2018-Nov-06, 10:13 AM
Pity about the weather track rated a Soft 6.....Yucatan is not suited according to the trainer he likes it Firm.

Giddy Up :beer:
 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2018-Nov-06, 10:17 AM
Heavy 8
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Arsenal on 2018-Nov-06, 10:32 AM
Most don't have any  heavy track  wins  hard to have The Barman 10yo shame to spoil the day .

According to the TV report the rain is expected to clear after lunch that will benefit the patrons but hard to see the track improving.

https://www.racing.com/news/2018-11-06/review-crazy-conditions-at-flemington


Giddy Up :beer:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-06, 10:36 AM
Just watched a replay of the 1st race. Geez. Hope there is no more of that sort of rain otherwise we might get a Van Der Hum Cup.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Nov-06, 11:00 AM
Makfi the sire of Magic Circle loved wet going ........he could well run favourite.

Imagine how  Coolmore feel?.........go looking for dry tracking Galileo's to bring out and then strike a heavy track!

Tough not knowing European lines.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-06, 11:19 AM
The track didn't look too bad in the 2nd?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Nov-06, 11:19 AM
That should just about be the end of the most of it.  35mm has fallen since 9am.  Expect showers in the afternoon but no more rain bands like the one just passed.   

As a gardener I am stoked.  I got to sleep in and spent the morning on the couch.   And boy, we needed the rain. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-06, 12:31 PM
These are the Sire wet track stats from Racing and Sports

NoRunnerSireWet WinsWet RunsWet Win%
13FincheFrankel3014420.8%
24RostropovichFrankel3014420.8%
15Vengeur MasqueMonsun164108615.1%
18NakeetaSixties Icon3121014.8%
10AviliusPivotal356247714.4%
23Cross CounterTeofilo208148714.0%
2The CliffsofmoherGalileo550405013.6%
11YucatanGalileo550405013.6%
14Red CardinalMontjeu499378913.2%
3Magic CircleMakfi12596812.9%
8Ace HighHigh Chaparral616487112.6%
22YoungstarHigh Chaparral616487112.6%
20ZacadaZabeel547444312.3%
16Ventura StormZoffany7259212.2%
21RunawayManhattan Rain7966012.0%
12AuvrayLe Harve10185111.9%
5MuntahaaDansili185162511.4%
4Chestnut CoatHeart's Cry1514310.5%
9MarmeloDuke Of Marmalade6158710.4%
19Sir Charles RoadMyboycharlie184177910.3%
7Who Shot The BarmanYamanin Vital200198110.1%
1Best SolutionKodiac757699.8%
17A Prince of ArranShirocco879689.0%
6Sound CheckLando8411127.6%
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: timw on 2018-Nov-06, 12:39 PM
Water in my pool has gone up by almost one tile - each tile is about 60mm  - an incredible amount of water - great for garden wont need to water for a while - i am about 12km east of Flemington - I thought time in 1000m. race quite race good even if down stand side of track
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-06, 01:05 PM
How does a track go from an 8 to a 6 in an hour?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-06, 01:32 PM
Any reports on Muntahaa?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-06, 02:07 PM
Can I buy shares in K McEvoy?

Last two Everests and a Melbourne Cup!!!

What is 10% of the prizemoney?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-06, 02:11 PM
Hmmm,

Some real hard luck stories today. One reason to not bet so big in the race perhaps.

Fours
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-06, 02:14 PM
Speak for yourself Fours!!!
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-06, 02:16 PM
How many northern hemisphere three year olds are we going to get next year?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Nov-06, 02:19 PM
   ....
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-06, 02:21 PM
firezuki,

Yes the winner went around the trouble in the straight as some early leaders fell back into the laps of those behind costing them their momentum.

Jockey changing mounts your final decider firezuki?

Fours

Head on shot says quite a different view - Marmelo squeezed mine out going for its run

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-06, 02:25 PM
Geez that was an impressive win.  :clap2:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: specialweek2 on 2018-Nov-06, 02:27 PM
Last across line? Avilius?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-06, 02:29 PM
Last across line? Avilius?

Officially won't it be Cliffsofmoher?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-06, 02:31 PM
firezuki,

Yes the winner went around the trouble in the straight as some early leaders fell back into the laps of those behind costing them their momentum.

Jockey changing mounts your final decider firezuki?

Fours

Head on shot says quite a different view - Marmelo squeezed mine out going for its run


I liked his last two runs - particularly the Gordon.


LIke to thank Arthur for that website so I got to see that replay.


Couldn't find it on YouTube. 


Hadn't run the distance but looked like he would.  He sure did. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: specialweek2 on 2018-Nov-06, 02:32 PM
Officially won't it be Cliffsofmoher?
Red Cardinal i have been told. 23rd.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-06, 02:37 PM
Official result published by Racing Australia.

Sadly The Cliffsofmoher has been euthanized

Finish No. Horse Trainer Jockey Margin Bar. Weight
1 23 CROSS COUNTER (GB) Charlie Appleby Kerrin McEvoy
19 51kg
2 9 MARMELO (GB) Hughie Morrison Hugh Bowman 1L 10 55kg
3 17 A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie Fellowes Michael Walker 3L 20 53kg
4 13 FINCHE (GB) Chris Waller Zac Purton 3.5L 15 54kg
5 24 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Wayne Lordan 4.5L 21 51kg
6 22 YOUNGSTAR Chris Waller Craig Williams 5.75L 8 51.5kg
7 19 SIR CHARLES ROAD Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott Dwayne Dunn 8.25L 14 53kg
8 1 BEST SOLUTION (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor Pat Cosgrave 8.75L 6 57.5kg
9 5 MUNTAHAA (IRE) John Gosden Jim Crowley 9.5L 13 55.5kg
10 16 VENTURA STORM (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Mark Zahra 11L 7 54kg (cd 54.5kg)
11 11 YUCATAN (IRE) Aidan O'Brien James McDonald 11.75L 23 54.5kg
12 18 NAKEETA (GB) Iain Jardine Regan Bayliss 11.85L 3 53kg
13 20 ZACADA (NZ) Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman Damian Lane 13.85L 24 53kg
14 4 CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) Yoshito Yahagi Yuga Kawada 16.1L 4 55.5kg
15 15 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) Michael Moroney Patrick Moloney 16.3L 2 54kg
16 3 MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) Ian Williams Corey Brown 19.55L 17 56kg
17 7 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) Chris Waller Ben Melham 22.55L 18 55.5kg
18 6 SOUND CHECK (GER) Michael Moroney Jordan Childs 27.55L 16 55.5kg
19 21 RUNAWAY Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Stephen Baster 28.05L 12 52kg
20 8 ACE HIGH David Payne Tye Angland 28.15L 22 55kg
21 12 AUVRAY (FR) Richard Freedman Tommy Berry 68.15L 1 54kg
22 10 AVILIUS (GB) James Cummings Glyn Schofield 69.15L 11 54.5kg
23 14 RED CARDINAL (IRE) Darren Weir Damien Oliver 69.55L 5 54kg
FF 2 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Ryan Moore
9 56.5kg
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Nov-06, 02:37 PM
You can spend so much time 'studying form' for so little result at times.

I always leave something in my account to have something on the 'best parading horses'

Out of the yard I picked Prince of Arran and Marmelo and even took a little duet for one of the few times in my life.

The bandages first time on Cross Counter was a bit off putting for me but I'm certain the son of Teofilo would have enjoyed the softish track.

Top ride by M Walker on Prince Of Arran and very good to see Charles Road defying his price with his 7th placing.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pwa54 on 2018-Nov-06, 02:38 PM
An impressive win. There’ll be plenty of Northern Hemisphere 3yo entrants next year!

So unfortunate  with Cliffsofmoher, euthanised according to Bruce. It looked a terrible break.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Arsenal on 2018-Nov-06, 02:47 PM
I was surprised to see W Buick riding today had a win early on the filly of Cummings  he was on Cross Counter his last two runs in the UK surprised he was replaced by McEvoy ....must be a back story to come.

Giddy Up :beer:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Nov-06, 02:49 PM
I was surprised to see W Buick riding today had a win early on the filly of Cummings  he was on Cross Counter his last two runs in the UK surprised he was replaced by McEvoy ....must be a back story to come.

Giddy Up :beer:
I would say the weight of 51 kgs was the reason Arsenal
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Arsenal on 2018-Nov-06, 02:59 PM
Yes probably right
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2018-Nov-06, 05:36 PM
I laid the winner on Betfair @ $9.20  and backed it on NSW TAB @ $12.20. When I first looked at NSW, about 10 minutes before race, it was paying $15.50 with $9 million in win  pool. I reasoned it could not shorten to $9.20 so I laid it on Betfair , then backed it on TAB.
Easiest money I have made for quite a while, with no risk. Winner was the only runner in race that it was possible to arbitrage with no risk at such a late stage in betting.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Nov-06, 05:38 PM
How many northern hemisphere three year olds are we going to get next year?

Just remember Ghostwatch for next years Cup. A little more exposed but he will win it.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Nov-06, 06:13 PM
Hmmm,

Some real hard luck stories today. One reason to not bet so big in the race perhaps.

Fours

Don't you normally love the vagaries of 'racing'  :chin:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Nov-06, 06:25 PM
Kudos to the trainer who had a magic year so far.

McEvoy does back to back on different horses so again a super performance.

I do hope this horse comes back next year to defend his title but somehow I do doubt it as he will probably go up a few kgs on today's weight.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Nov-06, 06:36 PM
Rekindling went from 110 to 115
Cross Counter went from 109 to 115

115 will see him on about 58 kgs and we all know Carpenter does not like 58 kgs and he will overreact to the domination of 3yos in the Cup.

Obviously it depends on what he does between now and when the 2019 weights are released but I can not see him winning too many races between now and then.

I doubt he will be crucified next year and he will be ridden by William Buick.

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-06, 06:56 PM


Visual Vet

The death of a horse today is likely to be 'blamed' on the Cup.

.............. this horse was probably 'sentenced' in the Caulfield Cup  when it was racing erratically to finish 3rd.

Big prize-money brings pressure to perform that may take its toll -- as MW said of his prince.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-06, 06:59 PM
If you don't get  :censored: ing banned I'm outa here.

Everything about you is anti-racing why you are given air here is beyond me.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Arsenal on 2018-Nov-06, 06:59 PM
Hugh Bowman handed hefty suspension
James Tzaferis James Tzaferis@Jtzaf   6:35pm

Champion jockey Hugh Bowman will miss a month of feature racing after being hit with a whopping 35-meeting suspension out of Tuesday’s Lexus Melbourne Cup.

Bowman was cited on three separate charges in the $7.3 million race - an incident of careless riding at the 500m, excessive whip use prior to the final 100m and the fact that he weighed in more than half a kilogram over his prescribed weight of 55kg aboard runner-up Marmelo.

Marmelo looked the winner when he hit the front at the 200m but was run down late by Cross Counter and eventually went under by a length.

Stewards found him guilty on all three charges and issued separate suspensions of 12 meetings for careless riding, eight meetings for whip use and 21 meetings for the weight infringement.

The respective bans totalled 41 meetings, however, stewards, at their discretion, ordered the ban to stand at 35 meetings.

The four-time Cox Plate-winning rider will miss the prized mounts of Latrobe in the Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) and last-start Manikato Stakes winner Brave Smash in the Darley Classic on Saturday.

The ban will also see him sidelined for Group 1 meetings in Hong Kong and Japan, also ruling out a defence of his Japan Cup scalp of 2017.

Bowman, who didn't rule out an appeal against the severity of the suspension, will be free to return for the prized Hong Kong International meeting in mid-December.

Five other jockeys, including winning pilot Kerrin McEvoy, were fined for breaching the whip rule in the Melbourne Cup.

McEvoy was fined $3000 after using the whip nine times - four more than what is permitted under the rules - on Cross Counter in the final 400m of the race.

Jim Crowley (Race 6 - 10 meetings) and Christine Puls (Race 10 - 10 meetings) were suspended for careless riding on the undercard at Flemington.ENDS

Very severe penalty (possibly the visitors rule applied) you would think he might have made it more interesting only for the more than  half kilo over although the winner put in a terriffic finish coming from last after very nearly getting clobbered when the horse broke down very lucky to escape but a great win only his 8th start in a race.

Once the stewards report is published we'll see how the overuse of the whip penalties applied to the two riders compare.


Giddy Up :beer:


Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: ratsack on 2018-Nov-06, 08:16 PM
If you don't get  :censored: ing banned I'm outa here.

Everything about you is anti-racing why you are given air here is beyond me.

o dear another long term member bites the dust

?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-06, 08:34 PM

Very severe penalty (possibly the visitors rule applied) you would think he might have made it more interesting only for the more than  half kilo over although the winner put in a terriffic finish coming from last after very nearly getting clobbered when the horse broke down very lucky to escape but a great win only his 8th start in a race.

Once the stewards report is published we'll see how the overuse of the whip penalties applied to the two riders compare.


Giddy Up :beer:

Absolutely outrageous penalty that could only be explained by the fact he is from NSW and the stewards from Victoria.

Hope he appeals.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Nov-06, 08:42 PM
o dear another long term member bites the dust

?

Not that long ... only 18 years since joining the original Racenet forum  :bye:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: sobig on 2018-Nov-06, 08:52 PM
Full stewards report from the cup

ace 7 - Lexus Melbourne Cup (Group 1) - 3200m:

A Prince Of Arran (GB) - began awkwardly. Rider Michael Walker was fined the sum of $400 under the provisions of AR137A(5)(a)(i) for using his whip for three consecutive strides prior to the 100m, which is not permitted.

Best Solution (IRE) - stood flat footed and lost ground (six lengths) and a warning will be placed on the horses record.

Marmelo (GB) - began awkwardly and then attempted to savage Avilius (GB) and a warning will be placed on the horses record. A post race veterinary examination revealed the horse to be lame in the off hind leg and will require a veterinary clearance prior to racing again.

Avilius (GB) - slow to begin. Hampered to avoid the injured The Cliffsofmoher (IRE) passing the winning post on the first occasion. A post race veterinary examination revealed the gelding had sustained lacerations to its off fore fetlock.

The Cliffsofmoher (IRE) - passing the winning post on the first occasion, suffered a catastrophic racing injury and was eased out of the event; Avilius (GB) and Cross Counter (GB) which were following were hampered as a consequence. The horse was humanely euthanised and the incident will be referred to the Equine Welfare Department.

Cross Counter (GB) - hampered to avoid the injured The Cliffsofmoher (IRE) passing the winning post on the first occasion. Near the 500m was steadied away from the heels of Muntahaa (IRE) (Jim Crowley) which shifted out; Jim Crowley was notified to exercise care. Rider Kerrin McEvoy was fined the sum of $3000 under the provisions of AR137A(5)(a)(ii) for using his whip nine times prior to the 100m, which is four times more than permitted. In assessing penalty Stewards took into account that he won the race.

Sound Check (GER) - raced four wide without cover in the early and middle stages.

Rostropovich (IRE) - raced three wide without cover in the early and middle stages. Laid in under pressure in the straight.

Muntahaa (IRE) - disappointed for a run near the 500m between Youngstar and Yucatan.

Youngstar - rider Craig Williams reported that his mount laid inwards in the straight.

Nakeeta (GB) - rider Regan Bayliss was fined the sum of $1500 under the provisions of AR137A(5)(a)(ii) for using his whip ten times prior to the 100m, which is five times more than permitted.

Sir Charles Road - rider Dwayne Dunn was fined the sum of $800 under the provisions of AR137A(5)(a)(ii) for using his whip nine times prior to the 100m, which is four times more than permitted.

Zacada (NZ) - rider Damian Lane was fined the sum of $800 under the provisions of AR137A(5)(a)(ii) for using his whip nine times prior to the 100m, which is four times more than permitted.

Auvray (FR) - lost its off fore plate in running.

Yucatan (IRE) - a post race veterinary examination revealed the horse to be lame in the near foreleg and will require a veterinary clearance prior to racing again.

Magic Circle (IRE) - a post race endoscopic examination detected a degree in internal exercise induced pulmonary haemorrhage and a veterinary clearance is required prior to racing again.

Hugh Bowman (Marmelo (GB)) - pleaded guilty to a charge of careless riding under the provisions of AR137(a), the carelessness being that near the 500m he permitted his mount to shift in when not clear of Chestnut Coat (JPN) resulting in that horse being checked when tightened for room. Hugh Bowman had his licence to ride in races suspended for a period of twelve race meetings. In assessing penalty Stewards took into account his guilty plea and good record and that the carelessness was in the mid-range.

Hugh Bowman (Marmelo (GB)) - pleaded guilty to a charge under the provisions of AR137A(5)(a)(ii) for using his whip twelve times prior to the 100m, which is seven times more than permitted. Hugh Bowman had his licence to ride in races for a period of eight race meetings. In assessing penalty Stewards took into account his gross breach of the rule in a Group 1 event.

Hugh Bowman (Marmelo (GB)) - pleaded guilty to a charge under the provisions of AR145 for returning to scale more than a half kilogram over his declared riding weight. Hugh Bowman has his licence to ride in races suspended for a period of twenty-one race meetings.

Stewards deemed that all three suspensions be served cumulatively, however to avoid making his term of suspension manifestly excessive, Hugh Bowmans licence to ride in races was suspended for a period to commence at midnight November 8th and to expire at midnight December 8th, a total of thirty-five race meetings (one calendar month).

 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-06, 10:55 PM
Gintara,

For my main method(s) I certainly do but Bowman gets 35 days suspension for ruining Wily and my shared bet prize. The horse was just about to be popped the ? when he got shoved out of contention and lost momentum. The folly of betting around 1 horses exposed 2 years in a row for shared prize bets in the Cup.

Fours

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: specialweek2 on 2018-Nov-06, 11:43 PM
If you don't get  :censored: ing banned I'm outa here.

Everything about you is anti-racing why you are given air here is beyond me.
Once again. How is this relative.
You are not a horse person so you cannot comment.
Sorry wrong quote, Wenona. You know.

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-07, 01:33 AM
I've given Sandboy the winner of the last two Cups.


If his binocular lenses aren't as big as the frigging Hubble telescope, he has no-one to blame but himself. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2018-Nov-07, 06:11 AM
As one would expect the lefties , on the ABC at least, are all over the death of a horse in the Cup and of course the number of jockeys fined for excessive whipping of  their mounts. As they pay down to 12th  ($150.000) in the Cup it is little wonder why jockeys ride their horses right out and receive  those fines , the lefties, of course, are trying to muddy the water to equate that excessive whipping happens in all races.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Nov-07, 07:48 AM
I was an animal lover long before I became a 'leftie' and I can assure you that you can never get use to watching breakdowns like that.

3 weeks ago when Gustavus Vassa broke down at the 1000 metres everyone carried like nothing had happened.
Very different when it's right in everyone's eyes like yesterday.
Many people's eyes would not have left that horse from the time it happened.

Horse break downs and excessive whip use are just some of the animal welfare issues that will always haunt horse racing and they are charges that have to be faced and those in control are very aware of it.

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Arsenal on 2018-Nov-07, 08:06 AM
 EXTRACT FROM STEWARDS REPORT Hugh Bowman (Marmelo (GB)) - pleaded guilty to a charge of careless riding under the provisions of AR137(a), the carelessness being that near the 500m he permitted his mount to shift in when not clear of Chestnut Coat (JPN) resulting in that horse being checked when tightened for room. Hugh Bowman had his licence to ride in races suspended for a period of twelve race meetings. In assessing penalty Stewards took into account his guilty plea and good record and that the carelessness was in the mid-range.

Hugh Bowman (Marmelo (GB)) - pleaded guilty to a charge under the provisions of AR137A(5)(a)(ii) for using his whip twelve times prior to the 100m, which is seven times more than permitted. Hugh Bowman had his licence to ride in races for a period of eight race meetings. In assessing penalty Stewards took into account his gross breach of the rule in a Group 1 event.

Hugh Bowman (Marmelo (GB)) - pleaded guilty to a charge under the provisions of AR145 for returning to scale more than a half kilogram over his declared riding weight. Hugh Bowman has his licence to ride in races suspended for a period of twenty-one race meetings.

Stewards deemed that all three suspensions be served cumulatively, however to avoid making his term of suspension manifestly excessive, Hugh Bowmans licence to ride in races was suspended for a period to commence at midnight November 8th and to expire at midnight December 8th, a total of thirty-five race meetings (one calendar month)


 IMO 35 days out is an abuse of power...... an obvious excessive penalty which on any fair assessment will be overturned on appeal ...12 meetings for interference ...8 meetings for excessive use of the whip 7over ........admittedly 7 over was in excess of other whip violations ..McEvoy 4 over $3K fine.....Bayliss 5 over $1.5K fine .....Lane & Dunn both 4 over same as McEvoy fined $800...and 21 for being overweight...all cumulative but in their wisdom "however to avoid making his term of suspension manifestly excessive, Hugh Bowmans licence to ride in races was suspended for a period to commence at midnight November 8th and to expire at midnight December 8th, a total of thirty-five race meetings (one calendar month" a reduction of 6 meetings.....so down from manifestly excessive to just plain excessive...the stewards in their own words have shot themselves in the foot.
(https://i.postimg.cc/SYndfWyS/rocket-scientest.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/SYndfWyS)

Giddy Up :beer:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2018-Nov-07, 08:09 AM
I noted before the Cup that the Cross Counter was to race "with front bandages for the first time", however looking at photos in the press today it appears, at least to me, there are no bandages on the horse's front legs.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Arsenal on 2018-Nov-07, 09:42 AM
How the tipsters went ...not too many had the winner on top......I had an interest EW first and second plus Yucatan and Youngstar ...took TT+ but big mistake in taking fixed odds the place well under tote.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup/melbourne-cup-2018-who-the-experts-and-celebrities-are-tipping-to-win/news-story/16ca1ae3bfecb31ba2a93a5e210bb9ec

Giddy up :beer:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2018-Nov-07, 10:19 AM
Yes, Marshall selected the winner but his rationale was off-beam.

"Champion (sic) jockey Simon Marshall gave Foxsports.com.au readers his expert tip for the Melbourne Cup and he was spot on, selecting Cross Counter to win.

“I’ve watched his English races and he’s got the tactical speed to overcome his wide alley" "
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Spudda028 on 2018-Nov-07, 11:14 AM
Very pleased to say whilst I personally didn't have winning bets on the cup ( Humidor long range selection ) the Punters Club that former forumite El Zoro runs that i am part of had out top 4 returnees for the year nominate 2 picks each for a $100 First 4. We ended up with 7 picks and 12% of $33k so almost $4k back which get s distributed evenly amongst whole group. - Sadly I was 6th in returns at this point so wasn't part of the 4 nominating selections. Well done El Zoro Chuggers and the other two punters club members who selected these:

Selections 2, 5, 9, 10, 13, 17, 23      

$3,971.00   RETURN

This was final bets for the club this year and was a nice way to finish. If anyone is interested in joining next year send me a PM it lasts for 35 weeks and covers a whole range of sports and racing bets / selections including a footy tipping comp and sports predictors comps which are long range and bloody fun! Plus there is a get together at the track in August each year - makes for a great day out!
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2018-Nov-08, 06:21 AM


 Plus there is a get together at the track in August each year - makes for a great day out!
Which track ? It is a bit cold at Elwick down here in Tassy in August. :chin:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Arsenal on 2018-Nov-08, 09:22 AM
Marmelo owners deny Bowman blunder cost win

GILBERT GARDINER

APPEALING: Hugh Bowman is trying to reduce his ban.

OWNERS of Melbourne Cup runner-up Marmelo have backed champion jockey Hugh Bowman, saying his weight blunder did not cost them the $7.3 million Flemington feature on Tuesday.

Melbourne property developer and nightclub owner Aziz “Ozzie” Kheir said Bowman returning to scale 1kg over the allotted 56kg had no bearing on the result.

Marmelo was mowed down by lightweight Cross Counter in the shadows of the post, losing down by a length.

“I don’t think it would have made that much difference on the result,” Kheir said.

Before the race, Bowman weighed 56.4kg, within the 500g leeway given to jockeys on race day, but returned at 57kg and then failed to give an explanation to stewards.

The Sydney-based jockey, who notably has partnered four-time Cox Plate winner Winx in 29 of her 39 career starts, will challenge a 35-meeting suspension – the result of three separate charges – handed down by stewards.

Bowman was also penalised for careless riding and excessive whip use.

The suspension means he will miss Group 1 rides at Flemington on Saturday and the chance to chase back-to-back Japan Cups on November 25.

Racing Victoria chief handicapper Greg Carpenter said the margin would have been closer than it was had Marmelo carried 56kg.

“It is theoretical but over 3200m the standard thinking is that half a kilogram is roughly the equivalent of a length,” Carpenter said yesterday.

“It would have made it very close, much closer than it was, in theory.”

But Kheir, who toasted Melbourne Cup success in 2014 with Protectionist, yesterday praised Bowman’s “amazing ride”.

“I don’t think it would’ve changed the result,” he said.

“Our horse is a big horse and he probably would’ve handled the extra weight anyway.”

Bowman, who pleaded guilty to all charges, will appeal the severity of the ban.

Racing Victoria chairman of stewards Robert Cram said jockeys generally had to be careful with food and drinks on race day.

“If they eat, drink or change their gear it can make a difference,” Cram said. “It could be a combination of drink (or) food

– he never put that forward.

“Some jockeys get caught out changing their gear.

“There’s only one person that will know and that will be the jockey.”


Giddy Up :beer:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-08, 03:11 PM
Is there a deli at about the 1000m mark that Hugh might have quickly stopped off at?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Nov-08, 04:15 PM


Racing Victoria chief handicapper Greg Carpenter said the margin would have been closer than it was had Marmelo carried 56kg.

“It is theoretical but over 3200m the standard thinking is that half a kilogram is roughly the equivalent of a length,” Carpenter said yesterday.


Giddy Up :beer:

1 length = 1 kg over 3200m is what Don Scott would have used.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Nov-08, 05:12 PM
   Gee Peter Mair, I thought you would be the first one to thank me for the workings for the Melbourne Cup, well before race time, F4 bet in colour, not too hard to read and I even put the Winning Post in just for you. And done with just a Pencil and Paper!.

Quote
VF140817 MC70611F * RACE NAME ID* [ MC70611F  2018. LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP,,,,,,,,,,, 3200 mtrs]. COMPRUN 11-05-2018. AT 16:01:43 RESULT  [   23  9  17   13           ]  F4 $32k, $33k  $38k
 * * * *  * * * * * * * * *  *  * * * *         :bash: Winning Post
VF140817 MC70611F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  9  23  17  13 16  ] [  9 MARMELO W%.  ---  ].[ 23 CROSS COUN.  ---  ].[ 17 A PRINCE O. a *LR7DS* ].[ 13 FINCHE W% .  ---  ].[ 16 VENTURA ST.  ---  ].[ ] F4 & 5LOW WDIV E/W BET *

 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-08, 05:20 PM


Well done as usual pega -- regret did not see it ahead of time -- where were the numbers pre-published, please?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Nov-08, 05:24 PM
  In this Melbourne Cup thread, posts 148 and 152, but now removed due to absolute and total  lack of interest; even invited anyone who read it that as it had no copyright restriction to post it t anybody or everybody.  But never again! 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Nov-08, 08:29 PM
  ....
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-08, 11:22 PM
How can it identify that the winning horse was the fastest horse when they generally run


slower times over there?  Actually almost always. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Nov-09, 05:39 AM
  ....
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-09, 07:09 AM
  When can we expect Peter's  TIPS and reasoning?.


I note he ignored this but it was expected wasn’t it
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Nov-09, 07:27 PM
  ... 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-10, 04:34 AM
I guess I'll stick to my way of picking them; staying up till five in the morning for three days


watching every video I could get of the condenders, checking weights and trying to cross thread


horses against at least one horse they might have raced against.  And then the rain came. 


I bloody earned it!
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-10, 07:41 AM


Why did RVL do it? -- a sober assessment of a toppled icon

Giving Cup to the world means its days of stopping the nation are over

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/giving-cup-to-the-world-means-its-days-of-stopping-the-nation-are-over-20181109-p50f1a.html
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Nov-10, 09:24 AM

Why did RVL do it? -- a sober assessment of a toppled icon

Giving Cup to the world means its days of stopping the nation are over

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/giving-cup-to-the-world-means-its-days-of-stopping-the-nation-are-over-20181109-p50f1a.html

While Max Presnell would be considered a bit of a dinosaur by many, it is refreshing to read a racing article here in NSW with some degree of objectivity about it.

I put a line through Cross Counter solely on the 'bandages first time' gear change.

Just on your computer Peg, I wondered how it could rank the horses this year when the track conditions went from good, heavy and then slow in the space of 3 hours.
The times would suggest that the track never really got heavy and it probably was a pretty good surface for horses to race on by cup time.

Anyway that's my excuse for ignoring it.  :biggrin:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2018-Nov-10, 10:23 AM
Given the decent run of the topweight, after he missed kick badly, and the weights of the top 2, you would have to say the handicapper did a good job.
Superb efforts really, those top two...did not realise they were together nearly at the 400 m or so...saw the overhead and I have to say I thought it a great race.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Nov-10, 10:16 PM
  ....
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-11, 02:32 AM
 :wtf: :wtf:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-11, 05:46 AM
What happened?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-11, 09:56 AM
Firezuki,

Pegasyber resorted to the broken clock form guide approach.

Still better than most peoples efforts in the tipping comp mind you.

For the record the MC was a run of the mill result for class horses in a field of that size and peggies approach should do well with class emphasized rather than speed.

Fours
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-11, 09:21 PM

The Cup runneth under

Tradition of the Melbourne Cup needs Australians to stay relevant

If you put a picture of the Melbourne Cup finish on a white background and asked anyone in racing where the race was run, they would almost certainly say somewhere in Europe.

................  they have lost sight of what makes it great: Australian horses, trainers and jockeys.......the Cup's attempts to become an international powerhouse race are becoming a retrograde step for it.


https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/tradition-of-the-melbourne-cup-needs-australians-to-stay-relevant-20181111-p50fdm.html

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: specialweek2 on 2018-Nov-11, 10:52 PM
Mentioned another thread but why has the camera  blue not mentioned here?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-12, 02:14 AM
Not sure what you mean?  More specific?
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-12, 07:15 AM
Not 100% sure but I think he’s referring to the races being delayed because the photo finishe camera wasn’t working
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-12, 03:13 PM
Okay.  Certainly first time I've heard about it. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Nov-12, 05:16 PM
The start of the Hotham or the Lexus or whatever the hell they call it these days was delayed by 8 minutes on Derby day after the start was aborted when it was discovered that the photo finish / digital timing system had failed due to a loss of a power and had to be rebooted.  All horses were loaded  and ready to go when the starter called a halt.  Everyone was unloaded and reloaded and the the reboot was successful and away they went.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-12, 07:02 PM
Probably wrong thread but I was amazed to see the price of an Irish Derby winner (Latrobe) in the MacKinnon.


I came across him whilst doing my research for the Cup - would have to go back and find where.


They had him $101 in the paper the day before - not sure what price he started but he paid $5.50 the place on Tabtouch


I forgot to back him on Friday night and didn't get up in time Saturday.


Was mighty pleased to read he got beaten in Sunday's paper; though not by much!


It seems most Aussies still don't understand that Europe's good stuff is bloody good.


Only Winx turned the tide back this carnival. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: specialweek2 on 2018-Nov-12, 09:22 PM
Not sure what you mean?  More specific?
The back straight camera had large fogged patch in the middle of the lens. Surely the director saw it. Why not get the cameraman to wipe his lens.
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-13, 05:57 AM
I did see that on a replay but I thought it was only that replay. 


Incredibly unprofessional. 
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-13, 06:34 AM
Probably wrong thread but I was amazed to see the price of an Irish Derby winner (Latrobe) in the MacKinnon.


I came across him whilst doing my research for the Cup - would have to go back and find where.


They had him $101 in the paper the day before - not sure what price he started but he paid $5.50 the place on Tabtouch


I forgot to back him on Friday night and didn't get up in time Saturday.


Was mighty pleased to read he got beaten in Sunday's paper; though not by much!


It seems most Aussies still don't understand that Europe's good stuff is bloody good.


Only Winx turned the tide back this carnival.


Are you sure?

Latrobe was always short in the market. The $5.50 was his win sp not the place :chin:
Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Nov-13, 06:43 AM
The only $101 that was available for any horse in that race was for No 6 Octobello.....Latrobe was no 7

Title: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov
Post by: firezuki on 2018-Nov-13, 02:23 PM
It must have been a misprint.  I didn't think it could be right based on form.


I thought he must have lost a leg coming over or something.