2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan harm-plan

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2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: 2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP G1 3200m 6th Nov  (Read 7410 times)

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Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Nov-05, 07:06 PM Reply #150 »
The three most likely crazy form reversals for the Melbourne Cup (In Order)


Sound Check $55

Last Start: 12th Caulfield Cup beaten 10 lengths.

Reversal factor:  Tempo & Riding Tactics
. From his wide barrier he was checked behind the field and then trapped second last on the fence in a very slow tempo. Got fired up and tossed his head around fighting his jockey for a good half mile. Childs was powerless to do anything as he was blocked in front and covered on the outside. Finally went back to last then went three wide to get some running room. Finally settled three wide then got dropped when the moves went on. Not surprising for a horse thatís won three of five at 2800m or more and won his only start at 3200m. On his previous start he meets Best Solution 2kgs better for running second behind that horse beaten just 0.3 lengths in a German Group1 WFA over a less suitable 2400m.  In that race he ran very wide on the turn and was really mowing down the winner at the finish. Looks an ideal 3200m type. Edit : Jockey Jordan Childs has also said he feels he rode the horse 'wrongly' in the Caulfield Cup and he will let him stride along in the Cup. Best Solution is $12.50 and this bloke is currently $55.


Ace High $140

Last Start: Ran 15th in the Caulfield Cup beaten 11 lengths.

Reversal factor: Going Ė if you isolate this blokes starts on wet ground you get six starts without a placing and on the WFA adjusted ratings I use none of those runs rate in his best ten. Last start the Caulfield Cup was on slow ground and he blew dramatically when the rain came. Ignore his wet form and heís a last start Group 2 winner at WFA with a career high rating. Won the Derby last year over 2500m. Looks like the rain for Tuesday may not eventuate. Opened $11 in the Caulfield Cup I just took $140 for Tuesday Ė if the goings firm that looks like an over reaction to the poor run for a classic winner.


Chestnut Coat $85

Last Start: 13th Caulfield Cup beaten 10 lengths.

Reversal factor:  Tempo & Going . Raced wide and got some late interference in the Caulfield Cup and the way the Caulfield Cup was run. I thought he was a bit disappointing late last start (probably not tested after being held up) but he did race wide, got checked and race tempo was very unusual. Iíve seen a couple of ratings based assessments using his previous Japanese form and he is way shorter than the $85 available on Betfair. Not sure how heís settled in but if you can find a forgive for the Caulfield Cup run heís overs. Edit: I've added going here as he had never run on a wet track before the Caulfield Cup. While there's no priors on wet ground it could also be given as an excuse for a reversal.


I didnít include Youngstar because I think the issues around her run in the Caulfield Cup are well disclosed. Also the fact she ran very quick final sectionals despite finishing 7th is well publicised. Sheís also well in the market and I donít think her winning will cause any real dismay.

I also havenít included any runner who was beaten in the Cox Plate as I think itís fair to say they were competing out of their depth as a preparation run. (That doesnít mean they werenít trying Pete).
« Last Edit: 2018-Nov-05, 09:11 PM by Wenona »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Nov-05, 07:14 PM Reply #151 »
  When can we expect Peter's  TIPS and reasoning?. 

 
« Last Edit: 2018-Nov-07, 05:56 AM by pegasyber »

Online specialweek2

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« 2018-Nov-05, 07:16 PM Reply #152 »

THE LETSGOHORSERACING tip for the MELBOURNE CUP is the FAVORITE YUCATAN despite his wide draw.
Our heart tells us that James Cummings can continue the Cup dynasty of his grand-father with rising staying star AVELIUS but our head points to YUCATAN after his freakish win in the Herbert Power.
YOUNGSTAR was our original tip until Kerrin McEvoy jumped off to ride CROSS COUNTER so we relegated this pair and decided to stick with that four for our TRIFECTA BET.

YUCATAN Ė AVELIUS Ė CROSS COUNTER - YOUNGSTAR 

Giddy Up :beer:

Glad you dont have to spell the horses name to bet.

Offline firezuki

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« 2018-Nov-05, 08:10 PM Reply #153 »
I'm down to 4.


Best Solution has the class, a good draw, and will be up near the speed. 
Should get a nice trip and he's bloody hard to get past.  Weighted to his best though.


Magic Circle.


His last two wins have been very impressive but again weighted to his best. 
Has the turn of foot I'm looking for but drawn poorly.  Fairly ordinary form before last two runs.
Will get the trip. 


Yucatan.


Cannot dismiss that Herbert Power but he is drawn terribly.  Raced back in that race, went around them, and left them
for dead - he just might do it again.  Not sure about the trip though.


Cross Counter


His win in the Gordon Stakes was very good and he is weighted to win.
Don't mind Mc Evoy on him either. 




Still work to do.




Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Nov-05, 08:37 PM Reply #154 »
Magic Circle's last two wins are his only two starts for new stable FZ.
« Last Edit: 2018-Nov-05, 08:53 PM by Wenona »

Offline Jeunes

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« 2018-Nov-05, 09:13 PM Reply #155 »
This is what we need to liven up the Melbourne Cup thread - a good old political stoush!!

Let's get into it    :biggrin:  

The ABC are part of the "New Age Politically Correct".

Following Horse Racing = Gambling = Vermin Filth (but somewhat hypocritically it is OK to have a flutter on the Cup).

They would have been buoyed by the reaction to The Everest Opera House beat up so why shouldn't The Cup cop some as well.

Melbourne Cup in need of fairytale horse to capture nation's heart

It might be going a bit far to suggest Winx has ruined this Melbourne Cup.

But for the equine day-tripper, the absence of the highest-profile horse from Australia's biggest race seems a bit like Virat Kohli not playing Test matches or Cristiano Ronaldo absenting himself from the World Cup.

...

As many have bemoaned, the domination of so-called "international raiders" and foreign-bred horses imported specifically for the race has unquestionably diminished the romance.

Not just because the so-called bush battlers have next to no chance of even making the field, but because we have very little time to get to know the fly-in-fly-out runners or even the locally trained imports before the starter's light is flashing.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-05/melbourne-cup-2018-missing-fairytale-horse-to-capture-hearts/10464082

PP, start a new thread aka the Everest for all the trolls criticising the great race.

Offline firezuki

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« 2018-Nov-05, 09:22 PM Reply #156 »
Magic Circle's last two wins are his only two starts for new stable FZ.


True and you wonder what they bloody changed!


His form before the trainer swap was pretty ordinary but the two runs since are outstanding.


Hard to know what to make of it.  His owner is certainly a fruitcake - a very rich one. 




Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Nov-05, 09:45 PM Reply #157 »
PP, start a new thread aka the Everest for all the trolls criticising the great race.

I thought about doing that mate but I copped some blowback so reluctant to visit that again   :biggrin:

You cannot hide the fact that there are a lot of noises being made about the current format of the race aka full of international runners.

Not just the ABC, Bubba, et al.

Trainers were calling for more local qualifying races like The Bart Cummings is.

From the VRC and Racing Victoria perspective there is a lot of money making reasons to have the race internationalized.

It is a fair discussion point - but maybe on a different thread  ;)

Offline Jeunes

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« 2018-Nov-05, 10:15 PM Reply #158 »
I agree totally regarding the qualifications of the Cup. I put my suggestions earlier regarding the Cup to give it a balance but it also means we may see some European horses racing prior to the cup as they have to win races here if they have not won G1 races elsewhere.

However the Cup is like free trade, if we did that, then we can expect blowback as most o/s trainers only prefer to target 1 or 2 races maximum as keeping a satellite or in quarantine areas is very expensive.

I do not know if VRC pays any costs towards their travel costs etc


Offline firezuki

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« 2018-Nov-05, 10:56 PM Reply #159 »
My main pick is going to be Cross Counter - depending on the weather and seeing him in the mounting yard.


Very inexperienced and drawn badly but I like his last couple of wins.  Even his last start defeat had a lot of merit. 


This is a very wide open race - unlike last year when I bet with confidence. 


Should be a decent tempo but luck will still play a big part as it always does in such a big field. 

Online specialweek2

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« 2018-Nov-05, 11:30 PM Reply #160 »
Rain then showers possible storms.

Offline firezuki

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« 2018-Nov-06, 05:18 AM Reply #161 »
Probably three days of work for nothing.  :tears:

Offline tontonan

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« 2018-Nov-06, 08:26 AM Reply #162 »

It has stopped raining for the time being and while my gauge has 12 mm in it overnight (far Eastern suburbs) Essendon Airport and Olympic Park only recorded 4.4mm overnight - but there is more coming.

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Nov-06, 08:37 AM Reply #163 »
So are we looking at a Good 4 by start time?

Offline tontonan

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« 2018-Nov-06, 09:13 AM Reply #164 »
No.  Certainly not.  It continues to rain. 



The 512km shot shows what we are up against.  A band of rain moving south easterly right across Flemington.  It will rain (on and off) well into the afternoon.  Just how much rain is harder to predict.

« Last Edit: 2018-Nov-06, 09:19 AM by tontonan »

Online sobig

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« 2018-Nov-06, 09:46 AM Reply #165 »
Downgraded to soft 5 (so far)

Online specialweek2

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« 2018-Nov-06, 10:05 AM Reply #166 »
Heavy 8

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Nov-06, 10:09 AM Reply #167 »
Finche ($27 BF reckon he'll firm)  and Who Shot Thebarman have best Heavy rates but the exposed Heavy form is very thin.

Any breeding expert got an opinion?

Offline Arsenal

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« 2018-Nov-06, 10:13 AM Reply #168 »
Pity about the weather track rated a Soft 6.....Yucatan is not suited according to the trainer he likes it Firm.

Giddy Up :beer:

 

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2018-Nov-06, 10:17 AM Reply #169 »
Heavy 8

Offline Arsenal

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« 2018-Nov-06, 10:32 AM Reply #170 »
Most don't have any  heavy track  wins  hard to have The Barman 10yo shame to spoil the day .

According to the TV report the rain is expected to clear after lunch that will benefit the patrons but hard to see the track improving.

https://www.racing.com/news/2018-11-06/review-crazy-conditions-at-flemington


Giddy Up :beer:
« Last Edit: 2018-Nov-06, 10:35 AM by Arsenal »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Nov-06, 10:36 AM Reply #171 »
Just watched a replay of the 1st race. Geez. Hope there is no more of that sort of rain otherwise we might get a Van Der Hum Cup.

Online nemisis

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« 2018-Nov-06, 11:00 AM Reply #172 »
Makfi the sire of Magic Circle loved wet going ........he could well run favourite.

Imagine how  Coolmore feel?.........go looking for dry tracking Galileo's to bring out and then strike a heavy track!

Tough not knowing European lines.

Offline firezuki

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« 2018-Nov-06, 11:19 AM Reply #173 »
The track didn't look too bad in the 2nd?

Offline tontonan

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« 2018-Nov-06, 11:19 AM Reply #174 »
That should just about be the end of the most of it.  35mm has fallen since 9am.  Expect showers in the afternoon but no more rain bands like the one just passed.   

As a gardener I am stoked.  I got to sleep in and spent the morning on the couch.   And boy, we needed the rain. 


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