2018 Magic Millions - The Races - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

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2018 Magic Millions - The Races - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: 2018 Magic Millions - The Races  (Read 4981 times)

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Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-06, 10:38 PM Reply #25 »
That was quite a win by Sunlight today and this year's 2YO MM has shaped as a three cornered contest with none of the horses having met each other.

The top of the market on TAB fixed is:

Jonker $4.00
Ef Troop $4.50
Sunlight $4.50


then Bondi is at $11

Can we line up the form through other horses?

Sunlight today beat Terminology by 4.5 lengths and conceded it 3 kg.

Let's normalize the data and convert everything to kilos by saying that 2 kg = 1 length.

So Sunlight dominated Terminology by 12 kg today.

Jonker beat Terminology in the Wyong Millions by 5.1 lengths conceding it 2 kg.

So Jonker dominated Terminology by 12.2 kg.

In the Millions, Jonker will concede 2 kg to the filly Sunlight so that converts to:

Sunlight --> 0.9 lengths (1.8 kg) --> Jonker

Of course the all important barrier draw may affect the final outcome, as will the pace in the race and other factors.

There is no obvious comparison for Ef Troop to the other two.

But we can get a line on Ef Troop vs. Meryl via Crockett.

Ef Troop beat Crockett by 5.3 lengths (10.6 kg) at level weights in the Phelan Ready. Crockett was then beaten 4.75 lengths (9.5 kg) by Meryl but conceded 2 kg to the filly in the McLachlan so the dominance was 7.5 kg.

Thus we can say

Ef Troop --> 1.55 lengths (3.1 kg) --> Meryl

Meryl is $15 and has the advantage of being the only one of the four proven over 1200m. And she is a "run on" horse whereas the others are "on pacers".

The rest of the form for Ef Troop is obscure. The only think worth mentioning is that Ef Troop beat Commissioner by 11.6 lengths at level weights in the Phelan Ready (23.1 kg).

Commissioner has come back to Sydney for two runs and was beaten 7.3 kg by Futooh today and was beaten 2 kg by Into The Abyss previous start, which makes the 23.1 kg margin of the Phelan Ready look very impressive.


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-06, 10:41 PM Reply #26 »
All 3 fancied runners have led and won all their races except for Jonker who sat behind Terminology in the Wyong race. Meryl came from behind in the McLachlan.

Under the scenario that the MM 2YO will be a fast early pace, it may not necessarily produce a fast last 600m.

The last 600m sectionals have been:

Sunlight 33.20 at the Gold Coast over 900m
Sunlight 34.02 at the Gold Coast over 1100m

Ef Troop 33.81 at Doomben over 1050m
Ef Troop 33.17 at Doomven over 1110m

Jonker 32.85 at Newcastle over 900m
Jonker 34.85 at Wyong over 1100m (running 2nd to the turn so probably ran something a little quicker than that).

Meryl 35.57 at Doomben over 1200m (was 5th 800m, 3rd turn so would be something quicker than 35.57).


I think the maths points to Ef Troop but looking for a "run on" horse Lee Curtis has a nice filly in Meryl if the predicted leaders falter in the last 100m.

I'm thinking tonight:

1. Ef Troop
2. Meryl
3. Sunlight
4. Jonker

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-09, 01:45 AM Reply #27 »
MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC (R.L.) (1200 METRES)

Of $1,940,000.1st $1,200,000, 2nd $370,000, 3rd $180,000, 4th $90,000, 5th $50,000, 6th $10,000, 7th $10,000, 8th $10,000, 9th $10,000, 10th $10,000

Set Weights, Two-Years-Old, Apprentices cannot claim.


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 11 JONKER David Atkins 0 57kg
2 11 EF TROOP Tony Gollan Matthew McGillivray 0 57kg
3 0x11 QUACKERJACK Mark Newnham Koby Jennings 0 57kg
4 1x4 LEGISLATION Peter & Paul Snowden Damian Browne 0 57kg
5 12 FULLAZABOOT Stuart Kendrick Tye Angland 0 57kg
6 1x27 CROCKETT Tony McEvoy Jamie Kah 0 57kg
7 2x3 BONDI Peter & Paul Snowden Blake Shinn 0 57kg
8 26 SKYRAY Clarry Conners Jason Collett 0 57kg
9 6x1 MERYL Lee Curtis Christian Reith 0 55kg
10 212 SECRET LADY Gary Portelli Ben Melham 0 55kg
11 3x11 SUNLIGHT Tony McEvoy Luke Currie 0 55kg
12 1x NOMOTHAJ David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Stephen Baster 0 55kg
13 1 OUTBACK BARBIE Tony Gollan Jim Byrne 0 55kg
14 22 ANTHEMOESSA Matt Cumani Jordan Childs 0 55kg
15 8x33 WITHERSPOON Brad Widdup Corey Brown 0 55kg
16 1 WHISKEY SHOOTER Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Tim Clark 0 55kg
17e 323 PAQUIRRI Gary Moore 0 57kg
18e 42 TERMINOLOGY Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 0 55kg
19e 91 SPIRITíS PRIDE Michael Nolan 0 57kg
20e 154 SUGAR SIZZLE Angela Plumb Ryan Plumb 0 55kg
21e 3x CATASTROPHIC Chris Munce 0 57kg

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-09, 01:50 AM Reply #28 »
GOLD COAST MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO GUINEAS (R.L.) (1400 METRES)

Of $1,940,000.1st $1,200,000, 2nd $370,000, 3rd $180,000, 4th $90,000, 5th $50,000, 6th $10,000, 7th $10,000, 8th $10,000, 9th $10,000, 10th $10,000

Set Weights plus Penalties, Three-Years-Old, Apprentices cannot claim.


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 4137x121 PIERATA Gregory Hickman Corey Brown 0 57kg
2 124x811083 GOODFELLA Bjorn Baker Jason Collett 0 56.5kg
3 1411x318 WHYPEEO Toby Edmonds 0 56.5kg
4 3x2521x329 CURDLED Peter Robl Jim Byrne 0 56.5kg
5 9x114x0271 SAINT PATRICKS DAY Chris Munce Ron Stewart 0 56.5kg
6 3x14x11 BEL SONIC Jason Warren Ben Melham 0 56kg
7 2x21250x37 SHOGUN SUN Kelly Schweida Damian Browne 0 56kg
8 x4958316x6 ARRESTAR Matthew Dunn 0 56kg
9 2144x1 WILD HEART Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Brenton Avdulla 0 56kg
10 x1530x1135 MAGNUFIGHTER Gary Duncan Jamie Kah 0 56kg
11 6x129x23 CALCULATED Chris Waller Hugh Bowman 0 56kg
12 5645211x00 PINCH PASSION Robert Heathcote Christian Reith 0 56kg
13 261x12 SMARTEDGE Peter & Paul Snowden Tye Angland 0 56kg
14 x1x1233x60 CELLARGIRL Kelly Schweida Michael Walker 0 54.5kg
15 221x11 SASSO CORBARO Kris Lees Damien Oliver 0 54kg
16 24x21134 LADY OF CREBILLY Phillip Stokes Regan Bayliss 0 54kg
17e 133x2614 I AM IMPINGE (NZ) Toby Edmonds 0 56kg
18e 10x413 CRUZE Barry Lockwood 0 56kg

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-12, 10:15 PM Reply #29 »
In the 2YO, the 3 in the market are all speed horses.

So I'm envisaging a fast pace and the strongest horse of those 3 prevailing. Ef Troop, Sunlight and Jonker all look good horses but impossible to compare.

I thought Meryl and Quackerjack were the "run on" horses and should be included in exotics.

In the 3YO Pierata picks himself but a little worried about the barrier and if he might get smothered a bit reducing his momentum toward the end of the race.

The obvious danger is the Kris Lees horse Sasso Corbaro who has not been tested recently. Oliver booking is a good move IMO.

I thought it was strange that they put a cross-over nose band on Whypeeo last start when he seemed to be in such good form. Racing Australia web site reporting that it is coming off tomorrow. So perhaps he might get back to the form that saw him beat Pierata two starts back.

Good luck for your investments on the big day.

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Jan-13, 09:24 AM Reply #30 »
In honour of Pete's whinging here are a few long shots that wouldn't surprise me if they did something unexpected today.

R1 #4 Epic Rant $19
R1 #15 Soul Secrets $41

R2 #12 Real Good $31

R3 #5 In His Stride $23
R3 #11 Glendara $31

R4  #3 Dark Eyes $17

R5 #9 Bidi Babe $67
R5 #14 Denpurr $26
R5 #15 Magic Alibi $26

R6 #5 Snippets Land $21
R6 #12 I Thought So $21
R6 #10 Snoopy $21

R7 #9 Wild Heart $14
R7 #13 Smartedge $18

R9 #6 Kaepernick $14
R9 #10 Perfect Dare $23


Best of Them
« Last Edit: 2018-Jan-13, 11:01 AM by Wenona »

Offline Spudda028

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« 2018-Jan-13, 09:48 AM Reply #31 »
Itís shaping up to be a great day. Here with Mono & other forumites expected to arrive shortly
Which horse couldnít get a flight out of Melb & had their owner pay $65k to charter a plane to compete in the 2yo ?

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Jan-13, 11:06 AM Reply #32 »
  As data is not extensive enough may as well have just an interest bet.  So here is what the computer derives:
Quote
  VF020118 GC81301F * RACE NAME ID* [ GC81301F  2018. MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC,,,, 1200 mtrs]. COMPRUN 01-13-2018. AT 10:14:55 RESULT  [   11  5  13   2    ~   10   7   ] F4 $ 15,752.  # 5 $ 15.80 place
 
VF020118 GC81301F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  11  2  5  10  7  ] [  11 SUNLIGHT W. a *LR7DS* ].[ 2 EF TROOP W.  ---  ].[ 5 FULLAZABOO.  ---  ].[ 10 SECRET LAD.  ---  ].[ 7 BONDI W% 0.  ---  ].[ ] F4 & 5LOW WDIV E/W BET *
     Your Ruffy is possibly there in the above line  being [   5   or  10  or  7 ] .
 
VF020118 GC81301F *  TOP4 F4 FAVS [ FIRST FV=   11     ]. SECND FV=    2    ]. THIRD FV=   12     ]. FOURTH FV=    1     ].USE IN 2ND AND 3RD POSNS IN BIG FIELDS

VF020118 GC81301F * WMSPD ORD TNO [    11      2     10     13      1     15      3      4      7      8      6     14     16      9     12      5     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  11 SUNLIGHT W%   2yo <a *LR7DS*. Dtl= 7 ] 10  SECRET LADY   2yo < --- . Dtl= 14 ] 13 OUTBACK BARB  2yo <. Dtl= 28 ] ]*SPL*

  All in BLUE are within 3.0 lngths of the top horse No  11   down to No 7.

VF020118 GC81301F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  977   970   970   969   967   966   959   956   954  938   936   925   918   913   898   854   ] IMPORTANT

VF020118 GC81301F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  11.5   11.6   11.6   11.8   12.2   12.5   14.2   15.3   16.2   24.2   25.8   37.3   50.3   59.9   119.5   625.2   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *

VF020118 GC81301F * KEY SPEED NOS [   2  +!. +I/C. =*NK*.  3   10  +!. +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. 1  +I/C. +TJ!. 11  +!.  13  +I/C. .]>1.  9   +GW!.] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 9 +GW!. <. < 12 +TJ!.  +GW!. < ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 10  9  S/WDual IS [ 2 ] * ]CKCNT.

VF020118 GC81301F * VALU% SELECT [   3 QUACKERJAC 2y  104% $29 Ds 14 ].  4 LEGISLATIO 2y  50% $23 Ds 14 ].  6 CROCKETT W 2y  9% $28 Ds 14 ].  7 BONDI W% 0 2y  30% $21 Ds 23 ].  8 SKYRAY W%  2y  69% $41 Ds 14 ].  10 SECRET LAD 2y  124% $26 Ds 14 ].  13 OUTBACK BA 2y  61% $19 Ds 28 ].  14 ANTHEMOESS 2y -38% $23 Ds 28 ].  15 WITHERSPOO 2y  180% $35 Ds 14 ].  16 WHISKEY SH 2y  1% $51 Ds 8 ]. 

  Horse Strength over 1200 or at least RW 1100  are [   3  4  5  8  10  15  } 

    Your Mini First Four Bet  [  2  3  10  1  11  13   9   ]  boxed for $8.40  Flexi bet for 1%  and you may not even hit a placing.

   A great day in Queensland  so hot will not venture out for lunch;  would like to be at the Gold Coast.
« Last Edit: 2018-Jan-13, 05:03 PM by pegasyber »

Online fours

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« 2018-Jan-13, 04:07 PM Reply #33 »
pegasyber,

A vary good effort BUT spoiled by doing the hard work to find the extreme roughy AND then throwing it out........

Faltered at the last step.

Fours

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Jan-13, 04:31 PM Reply #34 »
     Hi  FOURS:   I Never throw anything away these days, due to your past  guidance ringing in the ears; and especially when the computer says so; or even WHOA !!!!:  If you saw the full computer analysis of the MM 2yo event, there is no way I could or would have overlooked No  5 Fullazaboot.
Quote
RESULT [   11  5   13   2   ~   10  7   ]]  # 11 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 2 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 5 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 10 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 7 *!MUST KEEP!*d SPCL TR/JK/COMBOS [  1   4   7   8   10  12  15  16  ] DBL CHK *HI$E=[ # 1 ] JONKER W% ]. *SCNDHI$E=[ # 10 ] SECRET LAD}.  <<GW1+ [  [ 10 9 4 12 ]*] LRWDV= [ 11  2  5  10  7  . +A= LR7D [ 11 ].  . +A= LR7D [ 16 ].  ] I/CCLE= [  2  10  13  1  15  DUPGWPAC=[  4  9  10  ]. [*SOLSPLTJC*= 10 SECR 2yo $26/1 ] * MKUP [  0   @ $ 0 ]** * INSURANCE VAL[  15 0 FXD= $35.  8 FXD= $41.] BET NOW! * VALUNOS [  4  6  7  8  13  14  15  16  ]* * T5TTLMVS[  9 12 3 4 5 A S/A. DBLCHK TJC]. *LR7DS=[  11 2yo  16 2yo  ] *CRUSHD=[  2  9  11  ]]. * SPLRESIDS [ ** [  2  4  5  9  11  12  16  ] ** CONSIDER NSW/VIC TAB F4S + *SUPASPL [ 0 ]. *BMVRDPL= ***  RUN END NORMALLY  ***. CALC TIME=  15 Secs.

  Just hope someone besides yourself noticed the RED LINES.

    Unfortunately the changed TAB download Format of the Form data, has for the time being, beaten me in trying to make the  necessary software   changes.  However I will get there, but have had to put this aside for a months  break.
 The TAB supplied  form data  for the Magic Millions race was all with  less than four  last race data lines so the old program worked perfectly and with quite a clear result.  The new TAB  Form supplies up to 10 races of data per runner, so things should move up a notch,  once the changes are made.

 
« Last Edit: 2018-Jan-14, 06:02 AM by pegasyber »

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Jan-13, 07:38 PM Reply #35 »
Peg, I was on Fullazaboot, what a barnstorming finish and a great divvy 8-)

Offline gunbower

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« 2018-Jan-13, 07:49 PM Reply #36 »
Gee does anyone feel sorry for the connections of Jonker who was poleaxed out of the race. Not me. As the old saying goes " as you sew, so shall you reap ". Disloyal mob got what they deserved. Contrast that mob with the Hayes Family who have again stuck with the "unfashionable " Cory Parish and got the chocolates with the old timer., Jaquinot Bay at Flemington Today. I guess class will always take you along way.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-13, 09:29 PM Reply #37 »
Gee does anyone feel sorry for the connections of Jonker who was poleaxed out of the race. Not me. As the old saying goes " as you sew, so shall you reap ". Disloyal mob got what they deserved. Contrast that mob with the Hayes Family who have again stuck with the "unfashionable " Cory Parish and got the chocolates with the old timer., Jaquinot Bay at Flemington Today. I guess class will always take you along way.

You are a "class act"  :no:

Stewards Report:

RACE 8: Magic Millions 2YO Classic (R.L.) Ė 1200m
 
All runners in this event were vetted prior to today and cleared to start.
 
SKYRAY Ė After striking its hind quarters in the stall area, was re-examined behind the barriers and cleared to start. Slow into stride.
 
FULLAZABOOT Ė Slow into stride. Inconvenienced near the 800m from interference in front.
 
JONKER Ė Struck the running rail near the 800m and was severely checked. Jockey M. McGillivray (EF TROOP) pleaded guilty to a charge of careless riding in that after the 900m he permitted his mount to shift in whilst riding it along taking SUNLIGHT in onto SECRET LADY, which was carried across the running of JONKER, which struck the running rail and was severely checked near the 800m. Bearing in mind the severity of the interference, the status of the race and the degree of carelessness jockey McGillivrays licence to ride in races was suspended for a period of one (1) month to commence midnight 13 January 2018 and expire midnight 13 February 2018. A post race veterinary examination of JONKER revealed it to have sustained multiple abrasions to all 4 legs.  

Offline gunbower

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« 2018-Jan-13, 09:55 PM Reply #38 »
Yes I can read Stewards Reports as well. My point is that I didn't sack the hoop who put all the effort in to replace him with "so called best jockey in the world ". You can tell a lot about people if they understand the word "loyalty ".

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-13, 10:22 PM Reply #39 »
Yes I can read Stewards Reports as well. My point is that I didn't sack the hoop who put all the effort in to replace him with "so called best jockey in the world ". You can tell a lot about people if they understand the word "loyalty ".

Aaron Bullock didn't seem fazed by it and only rode his first winner in town today at Randwick.

He is by no means the first young jockey to be replaced by a senior rider in a big race, let alone a $2 million race. That is hardly cause for celebration if through no fault of their own the horse gets almost put through the running rail.

I reckon a month seems pretty generous.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-13, 10:40 PM Reply #40 »
All I can say is thank God for those "Invinza" horses Waller has. Have saved me from starvation these past two months.

I've worked out you back them if they are not favourites - they seem to know when they are not expected to win   :biggrin:

Online fours

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« 2018-Jan-13, 11:08 PM Reply #41 »
All,

A reminder of my very simple system which appears to crop up quite often in QLD races for young horses for decent prize money.......

Simply back ..... for the place... any horse paying >$15.00 the place with a career strike rate >50%

Only one qualifier in the Magic Millions  - Fullazaboot $18.80 the place fixed.

No doubt Peter Mair would claim some kind of insider knowledge but in reality its simply a little thought applied to value and strike rate. A little more thought can take this a lot further as pegasybers notes have pointed out.

Fours


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Jan-14, 07:37 AM Reply #42 »


Magic Millions -- a flawed concept?

One interpretation of MM racing is that, with a restricted field of possible contenders, there will be a couple of standouts and too many also rans battling for the minor placing spots -- but possibly enough congestion in overcrowded fields to cause a boilover.

Yesterday the main quadrella paid some $110 -- reflecting the standouts beating the also-ran congestion -- but the F4 dividends across the day were more like lucky lotto tickets (and I am pleased that 'fours' got lucky).

This may not matter much but the hype around MM day is hardly good for a floundering Queensland racing industry -- it is not even Queensland racing -- it is MM racing run in Queensland.

 

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Jan-14, 10:38 AM Reply #43 »

Magic Millions -- a flawed concept?

One interpretation of MM racing is that, with a restricted field of possible contenders, there will be a couple of standouts and too many also rans battling for the minor placing spots -- but possibly enough congestion in overcrowded fields to cause a boilover.


What "boilovers" were caused by congestion. Have you watched the replays?

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Jan-14, 01:50 PM Reply #44 »


The races run at the GC were exciting to watch and not for faint hearted jockeys or punters -- the best MM horses are advantaged by the restricted competition.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Jan-14, 01:54 PM Reply #45 »
So you highlighted the best horses and backed them or are you acting with hindsight

Offline Spudda028

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« 2018-Jan-14, 02:05 PM Reply #46 »
FFS Mair if itís not Qld racing where the fark is it being held? Where did all these international & interstae te visitors fly / drive to? Not Qld racing you are fín kidding you daft prick the lack of sunlight behind your keyboard has severely affected your grey matter
Go play with your grandkids as you clearly donít enjoy any aspect of racing at all anymore
You have made  some ridiculous statements from the top shelf but this one may be the best yet
Give it a rest ya tool!
PS it was s bloody fantastic day at the track well done Cookie and crew

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-21, 05:21 PM Reply #47 »
Peg, I was on Fullazaboot, what a barnstorming finish and a great divvy 8-)

Resumes as Hello Beauty in Honkers


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