2019-20 3YO Crop High Standard? - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

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2019-20 3YO Crop High Standard? - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: 2019-20 3YO Crop High Standard?  (Read 8557 times)

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Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Mar-20, 06:25 PM Reply #100 »
NZ 3YOs appear to be here Jeunes.

Tomorrow is one of the Autumn flagship races for 3YOs - the Rosehill Guineas.

A lot in our list appear here

No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Hcp Rating
1 31x4722x68 CASTELVECCHIO Richard Litt Craig Williams 5 56.5kg 107
2 14x3115x51 SHADOW HERO Mark Newnham Joshua Parr 8 56.5kg 107
3 4x34121x75 WARNING Anthony Freedman Damien Oliver 1 56.5kg 103
4 7x15134131 SHERWOOD FOREST Tony Pike Michael Walker 13 56.5kg
5 5763111323 SCORPZ (NZ) Stephen Marsh Opie Bosson 2 56.5kg
6 5311x68x07 PRINCE FAWAZ Anthony Cummings Adam Hyeronimus 9 56.5kg 94
7 123x824 RELOADED Chris Waller James McDonald 3 56.5kg 94
8 53x3121x40 PANCHO Chris Waller Tommy Berry 4 56.5kg 87
9 01141x506 THE HOLY ONE (NZ) Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Nash Rawiller 11 56.5kg 87
10 12x34 CHENIER Anthony Freedman Kerrin McEvoy 12 56.5kg
11 17x11x9 CHAINS OF HONOUR Gerald Ryan Mark Zahra 6 56.5kg 76
12 112 GET THE IDEA John Sargent Ms Rachel King 7 56.5kg 67
13 412 IMPACTFUL Chris Waller Brenton Avdulla 10 56.5kg 66

In the Ryder, the 3yo crop is represented by Super Seth, Brandenburg and the unheralded Spend.

Anaheed and Cosmic Force run in the Galaxy.

Tonight Bivouac and Loving Gaby go around in the William Reid.

We will know much more about the 3YO crop after this weekend's racing. Can't wait for the Guineas.

Offline pwa54

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« 2020-Mar-20, 08:10 PM Reply #101 »
Loving Gaby was very impressive.  2 Open G1s now.

Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Mar-20, 09:07 PM Reply #102 »
I am surprised with the NZ horses being here with the quarantines etc. Either they have been here awhile or their regular strippers / trainers not around.

The horses do add a bit of colour to the Guineas. Warning warmed up late in the Guineas while Shadow Hero looked good winning. Chennier and Castlevecchio plus a couple of Waller runners are intriguing at the odds.

Loving Gaby looked good today while Bivouac was disappointing.

Brandenburg is the surprise packet and the evergreen Happy Clapper can a run at odds if there is a soft lead for Dreamforce.

Online Brian Mc

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« 2020-Mar-20, 09:54 PM Reply #103 »
Tonight Exceedance was very disappointing; it looks like he is well off his Spring form.  That form was so good that it may be worthwhile giving the colt one more chance this Autumn.

Bivouac probably would have done better if he had not tried to win the race at both ends.

Loving Gaby appears to be a really, really good filly, one of the best of this century to date.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Mar-21, 07:08 AM Reply #104 »
Certainly not the way to ride Bivouac but Gabby was magnificent being ridden forward

Hope she comes back in the spring and no5 the breeding barn

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Mar-22, 05:47 AM Reply #105 »
Have updated the OP


Current G1 winners

Alligator Blood - Australian Guineas.
Shadow Hero - Randwick Guineas and Spring Champion
Sherwood Forest - NZ Derby
Jennifer Eccles - NZ Oaks
Probabeel - Surround Stks
Catelvecchio - Rosehill Guineas

From last spring

Funstar - Flight Stks
Super Seth - Caulfield Guineas
Flit - Thousand Guineas
Warning - VRC Derby
Miami Bound - VRC Oaks
Exceedance - Coolmore Classic

3yo Winners in Open G1


Alabama Express - Orr Stks
Loving Gaby - Manikato Stks and William Reid Stks
Bivouac - Newmarket Hcp


Updated Loving Gaby and added Castelvecchio

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Mar-22, 06:01 AM Reply #106 »
A 1200m Free Handicap, I'd have to have Loving Gaby on top - when expressed in kg above WFA.

Alligator Blood v Loving Gaby over 1200m would be a good hypothetical race but AB doesn't really have the 1200m runs on the board. His four reference runs would be the Guineas Prelude win, his 2nd to Super Seth in the Guineas and his wins in the Hayes and the Australian Guineas - none of which is over 1200m. Bivouac would probably be the main contender for a 1200m free handicap.

1600m you have Super Seth, Shadow Hero, Alligator Blood, Funstar and Flit winning Group 1s.

Drop Flit, and I don't see enough evidence to differentiate between the other 4.

After today I would have Castelvecchio equal on top for a 2000m race with Shadow Hero. Even though the latter has beaten the former twice in Group 1's, the Rosehill Guineas win makes it 2-1 and there was the Cox Plate placing behind the champion Japanese horse.

Getting out to 2400m we will know more in a couple of weeks time. At this point of time the two NZ classic winners and two VRC classic winners have the runs on the board.

Today's track was extremely disappointing given the flagrant track bias.

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Apr-01, 07:31 PM Reply #107 »
Reggiewood could only finished 6th in The NZ Derby......(same position as Tavago).....pace on all the way resulted in a fast time 2:26.77 secs.

I thought he ran really well but the TAB didn't and took his ATC Derby all-in price from $15 to $51.

If Reggiewood's  colours look familar .......here's why.

https://horsebetting.com.au/reggiewood-a-bright-young-talent-for-derby-king/132806/

https://collections.museumvictoria.com.au/items/246376
Reggiewood has been sold to Hong Kong.

Hopefully there is a 'return to sender' clause in the sale contract should this good horse fail to adjust to life there.

Don't do the "black book" thing anymore but the last horse I put in mine was Montaigne because I wanted to watch his progress in Hong Kong...... :what:

Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Apr-01, 08:44 PM Reply #108 »
I am waiting for PP’s summary of racing this weekend but good chance for some 3yos to really shine this weekend. I will be interested to see how the track plays out with some rain around for the next couple of days.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Apr-05, 08:46 PM Reply #109 »
I think some of the horses that showed promise in the Spring have failed to deliver in the Autumn. Eric The Eel thrashed some of the horses we were hoping would make the grade - I found myself cheering him on. Looked for a fleeting moment he was going to win.

Bivouac, Exceedance and Loving Gaby not sighted in the TJ Smith. Nature Strip, Santa Ana Lane, Redzel and Pierata are probably close to the four best open class sprinters and the 3 year olds could not match them.

Am starting to think this 3yo crop is nothing special  :(

Current G1 winners

Alligator Blood - Australian Guineas.
Shadow Hero - Randwick Guineas and Spring Champion
Sherwood Forest - NZ Derby
Jennifer Eccles - NZ Oaks
Probabeel - Surround Stks
Catelvecchio - Rosehill Guineas
Quick Thinker - Australian Derby

From last spring

Funstar - Flight Stks
Super Seth - Caulfield Guineas
Flit - Thousand Guineas
Warning - VRC Derby
Miami Bound - VRC Oaks
Exceedance - Coolmore Classic

3yo Winners in Open G1

Alabama Express - Orr Stks
Loving Gaby - Manikato Stks and William Reid Stks
Bivouac - Newmarket Hcp

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Apr-05, 08:52 PM Reply #110 »
Stewards report from the Derby

RACE 7: Bentley Australian Derby (Group 1) 2400m:

Castelvecchio–When questioned regarding the disappointing performance,rider J. McDonald stated that his intention was to be positioned in the first four and for this reason rode his mount in a positive manner in the early stages.He stated that when a number of runners held their positions to his inside, he elected to steady Castelvecchioto follow Quick Thinker, however, when that runner then shifted out  near  the  2000m  he  commenced  to  improve  to  that  runner's  inside.  He  stated  that  after  briefly obtaining this position, Quick Thinker then shifted back in, which resulted in him having to steady and ultimately race in a trailing position behind Skiddaw. J. McDonald stated tha this mount then travelled satisfactorily throughout the  middle stagesof  the  event,  but  as  he  commenced  to  improve from  the 800m Castelvecchio responded only fairly to his efforts and after being bumped by Eric The Eel on the home turn was most disappointing in its failure to finish off the race. J. McDonald further stated tha tbeing obliged to make too much use of his mount in the early stages and today's track conditions were the principal reasons for the disappointing performance of the colt. A post-race veterinary examination revealed the colt to be slow to recover.Trainer Mr R. Litt advised that the colt may not have handled today's heavy track conditions and in his opinion was better suited over a shorter distance. He undertook to report back to the Stewards on the post-race condition of Castelvecchio subsequent to the race and future race plans for the colt.

Shadow  Hero–Slow  to  begin.Leaving  the  1600m Castelvecchio was  steadied  from  the  heels  of Skiddaw and shifted out, resulting in Shadow Hero, which was following, being hampered and taken wider.

Warning–Rider T. Berry stated that his mount did not travel as strongly as it has done on the previous occasions he has ridden the gelding and when crossed today by Sherwood Forest near the1100m his mount dropped the bit and did not travel for the remainder of the event. He stated that his intention was to shift out near the 800m to ensure the race was run at a genuine tempo, but Warning did not respond to  his  efforts  to  improve  and was disappointing from  this point. He  added  that he  did  have  some concerns with the action of the gelding throughout the event. A post-race veterinary examination did not reveal any abnormalities.

Sherwood Forest–Raced wide and without cover throughout the early and middle stages before being allowed to stride forward and obtain a prominent position closer to the running rail near the 1100m.A post-race veterinary examination did not reveal any abnormalities.

Eric The Eel–From a wide barrier was shifted behind runners in the early stages. Between the 600m and the 500m was held up for clear running. On the home turn became unbalanced when bumped by Chains Of Honour, which shifted out.This resulted in Eric The Eel then shifting out and making contact with Catelvecchio.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Apr-05, 09:08 PM Reply #111 »
I know it’s after the event but I had zero doubt that shadow hero & Castelvecchio would NOT run the trip. I also had no idea that a Berry would ride Warning like a failed bush jockey

On the TJ, I also don’t know what the hell Bivouac was doing so far back. It reminded me of some of the diabolical rides that Lonhro  copped.

Gabby? Who saw that flop coming :confused1:

Offline firezuki

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« 2020-Apr-05, 09:53 PM Reply #112 »
Wet track.  Ignore.

Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Apr-05, 10:26 PM Reply #113 »
Yesterday showed that even though this year’s crop was good, it is still not good enough to be on level with Occy’s crop.

Warned was disappointing but the ride was terrible. In all of his wins, he has been allowed to settle but was bustled out of the gate and 3 deep for a while. If he settled behind, I have no doubt, he would have been competitive at one stage. He kept on grinding too.

At one stage, people including me were salivating at the prospect of Castelvecchio, Shadow Hero, Alligator Blood, Super Seth, Alabama Express, Warned, Bivouvac, Loving Gaby etc being competitive against the older horses. They were at some stage but in reality the hype was more than the results. They did well though with a few open G1 wins though.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Apr-05, 10:30 PM Reply #114 »
It occurs to me after following this crop closely the best stayer to emerge as a 4yo may very well be Eric The Eel.

Out of a Montjeu mare who was a full sister to G1 Avondale Cup winner Sharvasti and two other stakes winners in NZ.

By Olympic Glory whose only stakes winner listed in the Stud Book was last year's Coronation Cup (UK) winner Watch Me. Eric The Eel might well be his 2nd.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Apr-05, 10:48 PM Reply #115 »
Eric The Eel reminded me of one of my most enduring memories at the track. Think I've told this story before.

I was at Randwick when the great Champion Kingston Town won the AJC Derby as it was then known. The King treated his opposition with contempt and the crowd was applauding as he went over the line.

Along with a lot of people out there I went down to the parade ring to catch a glimpse of the champ when he returned to scale but the gate was shut and Mal Johnstone had to trot him around. The judge couldn't decide the 3rd horse and an eerie silence descended on the crowd.

The silence was broken by this woman screaming at the top of her voice and everyone thought something bad had happened.

What in fact had happened was that the semaphore had posted the outsider down from Brisbane, El Laurena, as the 3rd placegetter before the course announcer Geoff Mahoney could say anything.

The attention always go to the winner but it must be a thrill for connections to be part of a horse placed in a race like the Derby.

El Laurena went on to be placed in a Melbourne Cup as well as winning a couple of stakes races in Brisbane.

Perhaps Eric The Eel might be good enough to be placed in the 2020 Melbourne Cup - if they run it that is.

Online Brian Mc

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« 2020-Apr-06, 07:27 AM Reply #116 »
Rubisaki came out of Saturday's meeting with an enhanced reputation. I would not be surprised if this filly became a champion miler/2000m  mare.

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Apr-06, 08:36 AM Reply #117 »
I only noticed Eric The Eel when he beat the Queensland open graders the week before.......it was a very good win even though he had a light weight.

I went over all his runs and the thing that was hard to miss was he was always finishing strongly in all his races.
His only failure was on the bone hard Caulfield track so maybe something to bear in mind.
In The JJ Atkins he was right alongside Shadow Hero who was $5 in the Derby while $23 was available for Eric.

History shows there is usually a changing of the guard with the Autumn 3 year olds compared to what was going on as 2yr olds.
While I originally was keen on  Warning, the doubt on the tough spring Derby on young horses always lingers.

Eric looked liked he was making a winning run for a while......quite exciting!

Watching Dalasan going dead straight on the softer surface in Adelaide just proves my point about hard tracks.
All that laying in he was doing on the hard ground in Vic. was nowhere to be seen.

It looks like the Dalakhani breed prefer the softer tracks as well.


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