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2019-20 3YO Crop High Standard? - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: 2019-20 3YO Crop High Standard?  (Read 8555 times)

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Offline gunbower

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« 2020-Feb-26, 07:42 PM Reply #50 »
Quite right Dave . The day Tobin Bronze won the Doncaster he gave a future topliner in Cabochon nearly 13 kg or 28pound in the old.
Incredible. He wasn't a "cotton wool '  Champion . Won a Caulfied Cup under the steadier of nearly 62 kg. And  at that time the limit was around 45 kg. The same goes for real champions like Gunsynd, Northerly, Galilee etc. They gave good horses weight. No knock on Winx ; but to be honest she beat up prelim boys. Connections never stretched her , and that was their prerogative. But that is also how History will probably judge her.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Feb-26, 07:50 PM Reply #51 »
The same goes for real champions like …., Northerly,

Hardly has the record of a "real champion" outside Melbourne.

In my book the real champions win in more than one town.


Offline gunbower

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« 2020-Feb-26, 09:00 PM Reply #52 »
JWH , have you been supping on the Mair juice ? Didn't race much out of Melbourne at his peak -didn't need to. Won a Caulfield Cup , giving a dual Cox Plate winner four and half kilos . Pretty handy conveyance.

Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Feb-26, 09:11 PM Reply #53 »
Hmmmm,

How many have matched Malua?

A Golden Slipper and a MC albeit I saw neither!

Fours

He never won the Slipper. Not around that time but he has great versatility.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malua_(horse)

Online fours

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« 2020-Feb-26, 09:44 PM Reply #54 »
Hmmmm,

The major 1200m race then back then.

Memory is a bit foggy.

Fours

Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Feb-26, 11:13 PM Reply #55 »
Hmmmm,

The major 1200m race then back then.

Memory is a bit foggy.

Fours

What was Federation like?  :lol:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-27, 04:23 AM Reply #56 »
JWesleyHarding, do you think I am wrong???.....
What race did Winx win that you don't think The Bronze Bullet would have won??....conversely do you think Winx could have carried the Grandstand and won the Caulfield Cup and a Doncaster when the minimum weight was a postage stamp!?? Obviously you do..........but Waller and the Owners didn't.....they were afraid to even try!....I think she could have.....but he did!.....The hero has to be the one who actually went to war.....not the one who stayed home and bragged about what they would/coulda done!......but as I said in my previous note....I didn't expect any one to agree with me.....that only reassures me that I MUST be right!.....I was there the long weekend that Tobin Bronze won the Doncaster and Galilee won the Sydney Cup on the Monday.........What an experience for a young Kid.......they both carried the Grandstand and plenty thought they couldn't do it.....but they were heroes.....not bullies!

Winx did win an Epsom-Doncaster double and carried a record weight for a mare to win the Doncaster.

And what a win it was in the Doncaster. Looked 100-1 on the turn



I doubt any horse in Australian racing history would have beaten Winx in her 2nd Cox Plate victory in 2016



Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-27, 04:35 AM Reply #57 »
Back on topic.....

My opinion of this year's 3YO crop has gone down after the weekend's racing.

No horse in the list won last weekend.

Microphone, Anaheed, Bivouac, Super Seth and Kubrick off the top of my head ran and were beaten. Dalasan, Librtini, Lyre and Kiamichi have been beaten recently.

Castelvecchio and Shadow Hero were beaten but ran outstanding races first up. Warning was not able to keep up over the sprint distances so I wouldn't write those 3 off just yet.

We are now well into the carnival and the only winners from the list are - going by memory - happy to be corrected

Alligator Blood
Alabama Express
Flit
Brandenburg

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Feb-27, 06:20 AM Reply #58 »
Keep an eye on Superstorm

Offline Dave

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« 2020-Feb-27, 10:41 AM Reply #59 »
PP Alligator Blood, Flit and Brandenburg only beat other 3 year olds.......not sure that qualifies as proof of anything, it happens every year.......if they didn’t win, another 3 year old would have!
For proof of a generational quality assessment, shouldn’t they need to beat another generation?

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-27, 02:24 PM Reply #60 »
PP Alligator Blood, Flit and Brandenburg only beat other 3 year olds.......not sure that qualifies as proof of anything, it happens every year.......if they didn’t win, another 3 year old would have!
For proof of a generational quality assessment, shouldn’t they need to beat another generation?

I've been saying that for a while Dave, but mainly when warning people that they should be very careful when assessing 3YOs running in open company for the first time.

Take Bivouac as an example.

Had only beaten it's age peers (2YO and 3YO) at set weights. Gets 55.5 kg in the Oakleigh Plate!! Surely it should have been on, or close to, the limit?

Starspangledbanner was the last 3YO to win the Oakleigh Plate. He went into the race with the limit weight, and was the current Caulfield Guineas champion - as well as winning the Vain and the McNeil and being placed a couple of times at Group level. 

The great Weekend Hussler (some may argue he wasn't so great because of Equine Influenza but let's move on) was the Caulfield Guineas champion and won the Oakleigh Plate as a 3YO with 2 kg above the limit.

Snitzel won easily in the Oakleigh Plate in the wet on the limit weight as a 3YO - Takeover Target, Miss Andretti and Stratum in the beaten brigade.

The year before, Fastnet Rock got 4.5 kg above the limit as a 3YO having won the Lightning and won a 10 horse Oakleigh Plate.

Bivouac received 5.5 kg above the limit! Had a very, very similar record to Starspangledbanner (G1 Golden Rose v G1 Caulfield Guineas, both won the Vain and another listed race). His record was inferior to Weekend Hussler IMO.

Bivouac ran a nice race actually but if he had won it would have been a miracle performance if it carried 5.5 kg above the limit as a 3YO and won a Group 1 handicap. The alarm bells were ringing before the race.

(I think the handicapper should be made to "show cause" why he shouldn't be sacked  - but we all know that aint gonna happen   :lol:  )

Offline Dave

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« 2020-Feb-27, 03:54 PM Reply #61 »
PP you either have an Eidetic memory or you do a lot more research than I do, I only work from my memory and it isn't Eidetic! In saying that hard to argue or disagree with anything you have said.....other than the fact it was a grossly unfair track so I am forgiving all who ordinary ran that day.....or ignoring all the "good" runs on the day as I am not sure what degree of merit was involved

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Feb-27, 04:58 PM Reply #62 »
I'm going to add some NZ info here because there are some nice staying horses in The NZ Derby who are certainly capable of measuring up here.

NZ racing going nowhere but refreshing to see their richest purse in racing going to the Derby winner.

https://loveracing.nz/News/29837/JamesshootsforsixthDerbywin.aspx

Little bit of  Doriemus about Reggiewood......and yes I know they are a different colour.

Cheapest purchase in The Derby but really can find the line......his last run at New Plymouth, which was only 4th start was only .6 secs outside the track record.....made a long run and bolted in..... carried  58.5kgs.....does want to lay in and hasn't been right-handed are the only negatives.

https://loveracing.nz/Common/SystemTemplates/Modal/Video.aspx?v=http%3a%2f%2fwww.racingreplays.co.nz%2fmedia%2f202002%2fTAKI-R08-010220.mp4&i=%2fCommon%2fImage.ashx%3fw%3d720%26h%3d400%26a%3d1%26o%3d1%26bg%3deeeeee%26p%3dhttp%3a%2f%2fwww.racingreplays.co.nz%2fmedia%2f202002%2fTAKI-R08-010220.jpg&r=Race+8+-+DEVON+HOTEL+2000&rs=1&jwsource=cl

Was $18 on TAB yesterday while $15 for the all-in The Australian Derby........does that make The NZ Derby higher standard? ........could well be! :what:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-27, 06:20 PM Reply #63 »
You write off the NZ Derby form for the ATC Australian Derby at your own peril. And when they win they go OK and are likely to go to stud.

Recent NZ winners:

Jon Snow - subsequently had only a dozen or so starts - placed in G1 Caulfield Stks and Zabeel Classic, standing at Timaru in NZ?
Mongolian Khan - won Caulfield Cup as a 4 yo and off to stud after 4 more starts. Covered mares in 2016 and 2017
Dundeel - won the triple crown. Won the Underwood and QE2 as a 4 yo. Established as a sire at Arrowfield. Sire of Castelvecchio and Super Seth who are on this thread.
Nom Du Jeu - 2nd in Caulfield Cup as 4yo. Been at stud a while and sired one G1 winner True Enough 2019 Zabeel Classic.

Bonecrusher in 1986 the only other one I know by sight. He went on to become an all time great.

With the trio of Warning, Castelvecchio and Shadow Hero plus some others like Brandenburg and Soul Patch (4th first up to Alligator Blood and Catalyst not beaten that far) this year's Derby is shaping up as a good one.

Maybe this crop will be better known for stayers?


Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Feb-27, 09:21 PM Reply #64 »
I've been saying that for a while Dave, but mainly when warning people that they should be very careful when assessing 3YOs running in open company for the first time.

Take Bivouac as an example.

Had only beaten it's age peers (2YO and 3YO) at set weights. Gets 55.5 kg in the Oakleigh Plate!! Surely it should have been on, or close to, the limit?

Starspangledbanner was the last 3YO to win the Oakleigh Plate. He went into the race with the limit weight, and was the current Caulfield Guineas champion - as well as winning the Vain and the McNeil and being placed a couple of times at Group level. 

The great Weekend Hussler (some may argue he wasn't so great because of Equine Influenza but let's move on) was the Caulfield Guineas champion and won the Oakleigh Plate as a 3YO with 2 kg above the limit.

Snitzel won easily in the Oakleigh Plate in the wet on the limit weight as a 3YO - Takeover Target, Miss Andretti and Stratum in the beaten brigade.

The year before, Fastnet Rock got 4.5 kg above the limit as a 3YO having won the Lightning and won a 10 horse Oakleigh Plate.

Bivouac received 5.5 kg above the limit! Had a very, very similar record to Starspangledbanner (G1 Golden Rose v G1 Caulfield Guineas, both won the Vain and another listed race). His record was inferior to Weekend Hussler IMO.

Bivouac ran a nice race actually but if he had won it would have been a miracle performance if it carried 5.5 kg above the limit as a 3YO and won a Group 1 handicap. The alarm bells were ringing before the race.

(I think the handicapper should be made to "show cause" why he shouldn't be sacked  - but we all know that aint gonna happen    :lol:   )

PP, I could be wrong but Bivouac was the only G1 winner in the field and most of them were handicappers too.

Star Spangled Banner has Weekend Hussler amongst others in his race. The Hussler was on the comeback trail back then and weights were compressed because of him. Below is the race with the weights. Without Hussler, Star Spangled Banner would have carried only 2kg below top weight if we use the weights being lifted etc model. Bivouac carries 2.5kg below top weight. Saying that the horses in Star Spangled Banner’s race would have finished closer to him as he would not been on the limit and may have received weight off him.

https://www.racenet.com.au/horse-racing-results/caulfield-20100220/sportingbet-oakleigh-plate-race-8


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-27, 11:21 PM Reply #65 »
It was a relatively weak Oakleigh Plate, as was Fastnet Rock's year.

But 5.5 kg above the limit for a 3YO???

In February, a 3YO colt/gelding should be getting 3 kg off 4 and 5 year olds over the distance.

The horse that ran 4th, 5YO All Too Royal (winner at Listed level and placed in the G2 Rubiton) was receiving a 6.5 kg advantage above and over the WFA scale when compared to Bivouac. That is about 3.25 lengths in ratings terms.

To be honest I won on the race (3rd horse EW) and potted Bivouac for several reasons before the race (important word that before   :lol:  ) so if the handicapper wants to do stuff like that then all the better for me.

But that was a massive impost for a 3YO, and especially so when you go back and look at other 3YO winners. Weekend Hussler was being called a champion when the weights were issued for the Oakleigh Plate and got in with only 2 above the limit.

Bivouac is no Weekend Hussler - if it were a 0.5 kg or a 1.0 kg difference you could argue the toss but it was the enormity of the difference that is remarkable.



Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Feb-28, 08:12 AM Reply #66 »
You write off the NZ Derby form for the ATC Australian Derby at your own peril. And when they win they go OK and are likely to go to stud.



Nom Du Jeu - 2nd in Caulfield Cup as 4yo. Been at stud a while and sired one G1 winner True Enough 2019 Zabeel Classic.

Bit of a fact check here because Nom du Jeu is now standing in Meramist country.......Queensland......so doesn't need to have his achievements diminished.
He is also the sire of Ping Hai Star (formerly Ted) who won Group 1 The Hong Kong Derby.

https://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/article/2138732/horse-called-ted-humble-beginnings-hong-kong-racings-latest-hero-ping

Ping Hai Star recently just returned to NZ  to retire to their living legends farm.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-28, 08:39 AM Reply #67 »
Bit of a fact check here because Nom du Jeu is now standing in Meramist country.......Queensland......so doesn't need to have his achievements diminished.
He is also the sire of Ping Hai Star (formerly Ted) who won Group 1 The Hong Kong Derby.

https://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/article/2138732/horse-called-ted-humble-beginnings-hong-kong-racings-latest-hero-ping

Ping Hai Star recently just returned to NZ  to retire to their living legends farm.

So I understated his Group 1 winners by 100%

He has sired 2 Group 1 winners, not 1 as listed in the Stud Book.

Let's not diminish his outstanding achievements in his 4 seasons at stud.

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Feb-28, 09:12 AM Reply #68 »
So I understated his Group 1 winners by 100%

He has sired 2 Group 1 winners, not 1 as listed in the Stud Book.

Let's not diminish his outstanding achievements in his 4 seasons at stud.
A simple  :thumbsup: would have been sufficent to recognise the short comings of your post.

Fact check......Nom Du Jeu retired to stud  in 2010 .......just a few more than 4 seasons at stud.

Off topic so I'll leave it there!

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-28, 10:32 PM Reply #69 »
The Stud Book is the official organ for Australian breeding and it has Nom Du Jeu down as having one Group 1 winner.

There is no entry for Ping Hai Star but there is for Ted - but no Group 1 win assigned.

They do have HK horses like Silent Witness and list all his G1 wins.

Last year's HK Derby winner Furore is in The Stud Book (being by Pierro I suppose that would be expected) but he has no Stakes Race wins against his name.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Feb-29, 06:59 AM Reply #70 »
Ping Hai Star would be in the NZ stud book, I suspect

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Feb-29, 07:49 AM Reply #71 »
The Stud Book is the official organ for Australian breeding and it has Nom Du Jeu down as having one Group 1 winner.

There is no entry for Ping Hai Star but there is for Ted - but no Group 1 win assigned.

They do have HK horses like Silent Witness and list all his G1 wins.

Last year's HK Derby winner Furore is in The Stud Book (being by Pierro I suppose that would be expected) but he has no Stakes Race wins against his name.
I will apologise to  you.

I found this
https://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/article/2063657/its-time-open-hong-kong-derby-world-and-make-it-group-one.

It seems it had and lost it's Group 1 status when it became restricted to only locally trained 4 year olds.

Bit tough for Nom Du Jeu that Ping Hai Star is not recognised......but so be it.

Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Feb-29, 08:38 AM Reply #72 »
Not sure if the big 3 have scared off the runners in the Australian Guineas but the number of runners is disappointing.

Catalyst and Alligator Blood May have a picnic  in front if they choose to lead and where will Chenier sit? Do they ride Alabama Express on top of the pace but he has drawn outside the big two so may have to be used up. Dalasun could run a place at odds but depends on how he is ridden.

Quite interested in how the fillies fare up in the Surround especially Funstar as she has drawn wide compared to the other 3 in betting. Another tactical race.

The futures all in markets for some of the big races could be very lucrative depending on the races today.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Mar-01, 12:11 AM Reply #73 »
So where are we at with our 3YOs after today's Group 1s. As the Autumn Group 1's are run will promote horses into the top bracket.

Highest Raters

Alligator Blood - brilliant winner of the G1 Australian Guineas. Top rater middle distance
* Superstorm - West Aussie 2nd in the Australian Guineas
* Soul Patch - 3rd G1 Australian Guines

Probabeel - reversed the result of the Flight to beat a first up Funstar in the Surround. Top rated filly at the moment.
Funstar - looks open for fitness improvement after 2nd in Surround first up
* Xilong - Who??? Tony McEvoy horse with OK black type form who ran an outstanding 3rd in the Surround

Alabama Express - Colt who won the Orr Stks but beaten out of sight in the Australian Guineas by the Alligator

* new additions




Others

Castelvecchio - excellent run first up in the Hobartville
Warning - hard to conclude anything from the Hobartville
Shadow Hero - nearly as good a run as Castelvecchio in the Hobartville
Miami Bound - impressive winner of the VRC Oaks
Microphone - winner of the AJC Sires and recent Autumn Stakes at Caulfield
Catalyst - NZ's top 3yo
Bivouac - beat Yes, Yes, Yes in the Golden Rose
Exceedance - Winner of the Coolmore Classic
Flit - 1000 Guineas winner who resumed with a win in the Light Fingers
Super Seth - Caulfield Guineas winner
Loving Gaby - Manikato winner, 2nd both ATC Sires and Champagne
Lyre - 2019 Blue Diamond winner
Kiamachi - 2019 Golden Slipper winner
Libertini - dual Group 2 winner as a 3yo
Kubrick - winner of $1m Bondi Stks
Anaheed - dual G2 winner plus G3
Brandenburg - Hobartville winner. 2nd Carbine Club
Dalasan - multiple group winner
Thought Of That - didn't get the distance of the Derby but was brilliant before that. Nommed for the Randwick Guineas, Doncaster and QE2
Moonlight Maid - came from well back in the VRC Oaks to run third on a track that wasn't suiting back markers
Chains Of Honour - won the Grand Prix in Brisbane at only his 4th start
Chenier - 4th in G1 Australian Guineas


Some of those that ran today

Alabama Express was miserable

"Alabama Express When weakening steadied away from the heels of Catalyst, which lay in. Rider Michael Dee felt there may be something amiss with the colt. A post-race veterinary examination failed to reveal any obvious abnormality."

Catalyst failed to meet expectations. Dalasan and Chenier were OK runs.

Lyre ran an OK race - 4th in the Surround

Flit was disappointing.

Kiamichi looks like joining a list of wet track Slipper winners that do not go on with it e.g. Estijaab, Mossfun, Overreach,

Chains Of Honour resumed in a BM88 and it looks bad on paper 9th but only beaten 2.4 and must have been a dozen lengths off the leader approaching the turn.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Mar-01, 12:16 AM Reply #74 »
Keep an eye on Superstorm

Well spotted mate and well ridden you'd have to agree   :lol:


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