Racehorse TALK

Thoroughbred Racing Talk => Racing Talk => Topic started by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-12, 07:53 PM

Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-12, 07:53 PM

2019 MELBOURNE CUP


In my mind RVL has been working for years to wreck the cup as a national focal point -- once a great race for Australasian racing hopefuls -- before the 'asian' reference was inappropriate and then not 'in spades' as none come.

The spectacle of the Melbourne racing-set pandering to its social superiors in Europe has become passe -- an embarassment.   Give it away for the sake of local pride --  pirate contenders may win but usually not the favoured ones looking for a summer holiday in their twilight years.

Commonsense demands that RVL runs the 'cup' in Europe --  humbly sending a few local contenders over -- while still broadcasting it live at Flemington and doing the usual hoopla on the Monday in Melbourne .

Can the iconic cup be saved?

Norman Harvey has been putting the slipper in with a kick unlikely to clear the top of Everest.

The saviour of the day may well be someone who does not belong at the races.

Taylor Swift to rock the Melbourne Cup

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/taylor-swift-to-rock-the-melbourne-cup-20190912


Race 7 - 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES)

Of $7,750,000.1st $4,400,000, 2nd $1,100,000, 3rd $550,000, 4th $350,000, 5th $230,000, 6th $160,000, 7th $160,000, 8th $160,000, 9th $160,000, 10th $160,000, 11th $160,000, 12th $160,000

Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution GROUP 1
Handicap, Minimum Weight 49kg, Apprentices cannot claim.


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 12x1x1x434 CROSS COUNTER (GB) Charlie Appleby William Buick 5 57.5kg
2 211x11x1x1 MER DE GLACE (JPN) Hisashi Shimizu Damian Lane 2 56kg
3 7250x14335 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) Joseph O'Brien Frankie Dettori 1 55.5kg
4 2x0x1322x3 MIRAGE DANCER (GB) Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Ben Melham 13 55.5kg
5 37x3264413 SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Mark Zahra 14 55.5kg
6 3344465881 HUNTING HORN (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Seamie Heffernan 11 55kg
7 220x344216 LATROBE (IRE) Joseph O'Brien James McDonald 22 55kg
8 4x1x723516 MUSTAJEER (GB) Kris Lees Damien Oliver 6 55kg
9 251557x790 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Dwayne Dunn 12 55kg
10 423x2411x7 TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) Joseph O'Brien Hugh Bowman 19 55kg
11 x1x34x5125 FINCHE (GB) Chris Waller Kerrin McEvoy 4 54kg
12 8x49x58321 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie Fellowes Michael Walker 8 54kg
13 1x6x237x4x RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) Richard Hannon Jamie Spencer 3 54kg
14 x196112x31 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) Joseph O'Brien John Allen 15 53.5kg
15 2x53220224 MAGIC WAND (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Ryan Moore 24 53.5kg
16 2x30x80709 NEUFBOSC (FR) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Luke Nolen 23 53.5kg
17 00x048x070 SOUND (GER) Michael Moroney James Winks 10 53.5kg
18 1514132x41 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) Paul Preusker Jordan Childs 20 53.5kg
19 531x212224 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Joao Moreira 7 52.5kg
20 322x17135 IL PARADISO (USA) Aidan O'Brien Wayne Lordan 17 52.5kg
21 x11111x467 STEEL PRINCE (IRE) Anthony Freedman Brett Prebble 16 52.5kg
22 0141x59195 THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman Tim Clark 18 52kg
23 1x36621x42 VOW AND DECLARE Danny O'Brien Craig Williams 21 52kg
24 x059x87873 YOUNGSTAR Chris Waller Tommy Berry 9 52kg
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: arthur on 2019-Sep-12, 08:27 PM
Read the article and my 'excitement-meter' went through the roof . .

Only 54 days to the Melbourne Cup . .


I have only two questions . .

Who is Taylor Swift?? . . and . . What team does he play for??
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-13, 04:42 PM

What runneth over -- the cup or the vocal orifice of RVL?.

Taylor Swift is going to be MASSIVE -- up to 750 million people will be watching the race  -- like Super Bowl day.

Where do you get this stuff from  -- I want some before it becomes illegal.

It just cant be true  -- even Australians are over it --  just still take the day off to get hammered.

Q. 'What do you do when you cant run racing?'

A. 'Run a pop concert so it will look like people came to the races.'


Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-21, 08:19 PM


Oh no -- Oh yes

US superstar Taylor Swift is a scratching from the 2019 Melbourne Cup.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Gintara on 2019-Sep-22, 01:53 PM
Well more importantly than some singer who activists may or may not have got to is the horses  :whistle:

Finche was great yesterday, 2nd up of running 4th in last years Cup

Steel Prince produced a cracking last 200m split, he's ready to win now as the distances increase & he draws better.

Rostropovich got home well 1st up last week in the Makybe Diva

Care to add anything Pete?
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Sep-22, 05:59 PM
Bringham Rocks went from 201/1 to 26/1 for the Caulfield Cup after his win yesterday. Wonder if he will go onto the big one as he may have qualified but could be low down on the entry list.

Very Elegant solid yesterday but not sure if they will aim her for the cups as lacked some zing.

Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Gintara on 2019-Sep-22, 06:48 PM
Forgot about Brimham Rocks Jeunes  :shy: Although he's never struck me as good enough since coming to Australia.

Laurie Sainsbury tipped him on Racenet yesterday at big odds too   emthup
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-22, 08:14 PM


Care to add anything Pete?

Not especially today.

The 'cup' weights are published and that helps to get the top-weights on a loose rein but weight-penalties can be given to winners (e.g. Finche -- 54kg) of races, other than WFA events, and that is a warning sign of cup-runners not expected to win.

The more general explanation for growing community disinterest is about the pandering to imported runners likely to boost the credibility of the cups, internationally if they run well.

However that may work --  attracting second-rate foreign discards --  it 'wrecks' the cups as local events holding the attention of the national community -- the Melbourne community is apparently beyond any semblance of commonsense -- not just racing events.  It is the weather.

Why a national icon event would have been destroyed by RVL in its pandering quest for global relevance is the lingering question.

The national population -- some 25 million -- is about one-third of one-percent of the global population -- that is close to irrelevant in the normal course -- it is a worry that horse racing, mainly absolute rubbish, is so deeply ingrained in the local economy -- the politically contrived 'apparent' popularity of racing is well worth a national corruption inquiry.

That said I love racing -- fair contests among qualified runners  -- but not the inflated-field nonsense akin to a game of bagatelle [--  a game in which small balls are hit and then allowed to roll down a sloping board on which there are holes, each numbered with the score achieved if a ball goes into it, with pins acting as obstructions.]

....... the best thing to happen to Australian racing was Prince of Penzance winning a cup -- at 100/1 ---- it underlined the stupidity of money grubbing administrators wrecking a national icon to feather their corrupt nest.




Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: napes on 2019-Sep-25, 09:56 AM
According to your dribbling logic Prince of Penzance shouldn't have even been in the cup!!

Perhaps you could set out the guidelines for next years cup and let the VRC know how the race should be run.

If you love fair contests only bet in Set Weights races. Handicaps are by definition unfair contests! And that's racing.

If you want to see the same horse win every week have a fair contest.

Do you really believe you are right and everyone else is wrong?

Insane?
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-28, 09:55 PM


Dare to be great -- is RVL, or its minions, funding the costs of traveling these imports?


Three of Europe’s leading stables dominate the second shipment of the 16 Northern Hemisphere raiders that entered quarantine overnight.

The 16 gallopers will do 14 days in pre-export quarantine facilities in Newmarket (UK) and County Tipperary (Ireland) before arriving in Melbourne on Saturday, October 12.

Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Oct-04, 08:05 AM
Find it absolutely fascinating that most of the oxygen from the Racing media is about the Everest with a few stories scattered about the Cups.

I think the VRC has lost the PR battle with NSW in regards to this. Saying that the most disappointing thing about this weekend is the lack of promotion for the Sydney G1s this weekend for the Epsom, Metropolitan and Flight Stakes.

A few years ago this weekend was a big deal in Sydney. Randwick in Saturday and GF on Sunday. Last year I was at the track and it was not even half full.

Racing landscape has really changed in the last few years with the advent of the Championship, Everest etc. I will be intrigued to see how the races stack up after the Everest as I can’t blame the owners / trainers to chase the money rather than G1 glory.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-04, 10:08 PM

...............Last year I was at the track and it was not even half full.

The critical question is, why you would expect 'anyone' to be on-course?

Any sensible punter would be betting from home -- knowing that it offers the best access to the best information with no impediments to betting on the other, inferior, major meeting of the day with the Mexicans.

........just why racing administrators want people on-course is a mystery ... the punters know that being on course is a disadvantage and that they will be screwed for a drink and a feed.

Do not go!

The fanciful nonsense is about to unfold as the administrators in NSW rig the deal to create the impression that 'there is a crowd on course' -- distributing free-entry to the members stand is a marketing deception. Tell us 'how many?'

Do not go to the track -- no need to,  it is a disadvantage.

...... more importantly 'not going' makes it clear that we do not trust administrators to give punters a fair deal in any respect.

Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Oct-05, 07:03 AM
Pete, Racing or sport on tv is different to being there live. There is a gambling aspect to both and social too.

There is nothing better than watching the horses thunder past you with the yelling of the jockeys and punters alike.

That is what makes racing special when you are at the track at times. We try to goto at least one big meeting per year.

Winx on tv and live are two different experiences. That is Racing.

Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-05, 07:23 AM

........  live racing 'at the track'

I have been to the track around the world and always appreciate the experience and the differences.

The thunder of hooves and the rumble of excitement can be enjoyed at lesser meetings.

On the big days there can be a sense of the occasion but most casual patrons have nothing to gain -- could not pick Winx from a lineup without the colours....... would not know how to assess the condition of a horse in the mounting yard et al.

Punters at home these days are provided with guidance for 'pick of the yard' etc and, ahead of that, are at home for the pre-race media rather than traveling to the track --- on a day like today, with the hope of good racing in both capitals, it is best to be at home.
 
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Oct-05, 08:05 AM
Pete, I agree partially with you.

Watching the grand final is better on tv as you see more. However the atmosphere and spectacle makes up for it in a large way.

Same with racing, I prefer less crowded meetings but sometimes you want to see the really good horses.

Last year, we were in a marquee thanks to a mate who got some tickets from a company he works with. The Marquee was overpriced with some reality stars and sports people floating around. The crowd in the marquee rarely went outside to watch a race and were more intent on partying. My mates and I spent our time watching the horses live etc and we thoroughly enjoyed the racing.

The fact is carnivals like the Everest etc help fill the coffers for the dead months. As someone from ATC told us, people deride the carnivals or partying but they pay the bills. Most steadfast gamblers will baulk at paying $10 for a beer while the partygoers will spend $100 on average on food and beverage.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Arsenal on 2019-Oct-22, 04:34 PM
GOLD MOUNT, QAFILA OUT OF MELBOURNE CUP
Monday 21 October, 2019
English stayer Gold Mount has been retired after suffering a suspensory injury during the Caulfield Cup.

Trained by Ian Williams, Gold Mount finished 12th, beaten just over four lengths, in Saturday's $5 million Caulfield Cup (2400m).

He had been scheduled to progress to the Melbourne Cup before the injury was confirmed.,

"It's a tough game, and setbacks are part of the sport, but Gold Mount will enjoy a peaceful retirement," Ian Williams Racing said on Twitter.

"He gave us some great times this year, and thank you for all kind messages and support."

South Australian Derby winner Qafila has also been ruled out of the Melbourne Cup with the Lindsay Park stable telling stewards on Monday the four-year-old mare would not be running in the November 5 race.

Qafila, who finished 17th in the Caulfield Cup, was 27th in the latest Melbourne Cup order of entry released on Monday.

ENDS

Bad luck about Gold Mount I thought he raced well in the Caulfield Cup to be a chance on Tuesday week.

Giddy Up :beer:
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Oct-23, 02:36 PM
Burger, I was all over Gold Mount. Took a heap of doubles on Saturday
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-25, 05:46 AM

Cox Plate confusion as Cups infection spreads


The cultural cringe that sees RVL pandering to the hit-and-run aspirations of 'unknown' horses, is working its magic on the Cox Plate as well as the Cups.

The presence of 'unknowns' in the big races is spoiling their appeal.

This extract from the morning press is illustrative:

Bookmakers reported mixed interest in Lys Gracieux after Tuesday's barrier draw as Australian racing officials simultaneously grapple with an animal welfare crisis and a decline in betting on some of the country's biggest races.

"It is a strange Cox Plate because every good judge wants to tell you the Japanese horse is unbeatable, but none of them want to back it," BlueBet's Michael Sullivan said.

"They are worried about the Valley for the first time, but having said that they don't want to back anything to beat her. There is no interest in it compared to what I would usually expect, so it will continue to follow the trend of the spring and be down on turnover."
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-27, 09:44 AM

Cox Plate day devalued by hit-and-run raiders

......... how can RVL continue to devalue the racing gambling experience by accepting unknown entrants.

2KSKY are saying up to 12 unknowns in the M(essed) Cup on 5 November
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: ianb on 2019-Oct-27, 01:08 PM
No it wasn't Peter.

What it highlighted was what most of us who really think about racing knew - we have very good sprinters still but without the 2 outstanding Australian middle distance horses of the last 10 years (Winx and So You Think) our middle distance/staying horses  continue to  have a long way to go.

Surely you don't want to go back to the days when moderates like Tawriffic and What A Nuisance won the best race in Australia.

Having said that I am baffled at how Il Paradiso can make the field purely on the basis of a 3rd in a 4 horse Group2 race.

On his form he surely has too much weight .
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Oct-27, 01:23 PM
If Mer De Glace wins Damien Lane will become the first ever jockey to win The Slipper, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the one calendar year.

You'd like to have shares in him   :lol:
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2019-Oct-27, 01:41 PM
First there different trainers
 
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-27, 03:10 PM

The racing gambling experience -- is devalued

........ it was yesterday and the week before and the week before..........

The point has nothing to do with where the better horses may be based.

........ it is about fit-and-run horses being 'unknown' to Australian punters then unable to have a sound opinion of their prospects.

The recent history of the Melbourne Cup is testament to the bookmaking confusion caused by unknown runners.

One consequence is that it is no longer a good race-betting experience -- it is now just an excuse for a day off and over-indulging.

One might also say it has gone the way of Australian culture more generally -- nothing to be pleased about.




Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Oct-28, 01:30 AM
If Mer De Glace wins Damien Lane will become the first ever jockey to win The Slipper, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the one calendar year.

You'd like to have shares in him   :lol:

First there different trainers

 :what:
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2019-Oct-28, 08:47 AM
Typo

"Three" not "there"

Just saying the Slipper, CC and Cox Plate were all for different trainers so even more notable. imo
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Oct-28, 03:21 PM
From AAP

Forty two horses left in Melbourne Cup

Four horses among the remaining 42 vying for the 24 spots in the Melbourne Cup field have been the subjects of veterinary scrutiny.

Defending Cup titleholder Cross Counter and 2018 runner-up Marmelo, along with Ispolini and Southern France have undergone tests.

Trained in England by Charlie Appleby, Cross Counter has undergone a precautionary CT scan at the University of Melbourne Equine Clinic and passed suitable to continue his preparation.

His Godolphin stablemate Ispolini has been referred to the clinic to also undergo a scan after displaying soreness when inspected by Racing Victoria vets.

The stable has ordered further tests on Monday afternoon at the Ballarat Equine Clinic.

Marmelo was also scanned after showing soreness and RV vets will discuss the results with trainer Hughie Morrison who is en route to Australia from England.

Trainers Ciaron Maher and David Eustace have advised RV vets they have been undertaking precautionary veterinary testing on Southern France at the Werribee quarantine centre as the imported horse continues his preparation.

Third acceptances for the Cup were taken on Monday and include Japanese horse, Caulfield Cup winner, Mer De Glace to be ridden by Damian Lane who is aiming for a clean sweep of Australia's four major races this year.

Former European Constantinople, now with Lindsay Park, is the Cup favourite after his fourth in the Caulfield Cup.

He will be ridden by Hong Kong-based Joao Moreira unless Glen Boss can have a careless riding suspension overturned.

Among the notable defections are Avilius, Homesman, Yucatan, Verry Elleegant, Shraaoh, Mr Quickie and Big Duke.

Final acceptances for the Melbourne Cup will be taken on Saturday with the winner of the Hotham Handicap eligible for a start.

https://www.aapmegaform.com.au/news/article.aspx?article-id=497475&category=RN
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Oct-28, 07:03 PM
One of the more open MC cups.

Current order of entry below. Fascinating at the number of O’Brien runners. Quite interested to see what happens this weekend.

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/news/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-as-at-oct-28
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-28, 10:43 PM

Can we have a forum poll on the question of the Cup -- and Cup Day -- being devalued, or not.

.......... awaiting the race outcomes for 'cup day' one can only wonder why any serious punter would waste time doing the 'form' and money backing an ill informed opinion?

........... public interest and betting turnover are headed south..... yet RVL persists in running a rort.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Dave on 2019-Oct-28, 11:01 PM
When comparing overseas horses to Aussie(staying) horses there seems to be one point that is always overlooked by many pundits......Training facilities.....they all have the very best training facilities, not only in their own countries but when they are given carte blanche to do what they like at Werribee.....i.e. access to the course proper 24/7......something I am sure Aussie trainers would kill for, Aussie trainers are under pressure to be finished working dozens or even 100's of horses( with Waller) in the dark and be finished by 7.30/8am when the track closes........where as the overseas horses spend much more time working at their leisure and can do as many laps as they want, there is a huge difference working on a Course proper to the inside training tracks, which are more akin to a dog track in both circumference and quality.....saying they are better really is a self fulfilling prophecy..........
Don't get me wrong they generally are better, but they do get that added advantage as well
Another point.........Contrary to popular opinion our Breeding isn't really obsessed with breeding Sprinters, Our breeding industry doesn't give a flying F*#k about Aussie racing, sprinting or staying!!!!!......
What drives them is fast turn over,
When a buyer purchases a Sprinter they will be back next year whether it is a Champion or a complete Dud, either way they know fairly soon
Whereas if they buy a stayer they won't be back for 2/3/4 years until they know if they have a Champ or a dud......that is why they are obsessed with sprinters....MONEY.....it is all about yearling prices and getting all the buyers there every year to compete with each other.....
Most of the big trainers train for big breeders so they keep their mouths shut....same reason racenet and the Telegraph etc won't allow criticism of racing, vested interests, advertising $$$$'s the public only gets told what they want you to know, which is about 1% of the truth(artistic licence).....there are many things in racing folklore that people hear all the time so assume they are true that are complete lies........in this respect I agree with Pete in racing there is a lot of BS...just on different points.....always be suspicious when self interest is at stake
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Oct-29, 07:28 AM
Dave, you are spot on with the breeding point. Only way it changes if we have more middle distance and staying races. However with the Everest, Slipper, Coolmore etc there is more pressure for 2-3 yo sprinters.

If all the racing states doubled the prizemoney of all G1 races 1400m and up, it could change the landscape in 3-4 years but will never happen.

Other than our sprinters, the o/s runners are stronger and better than our runners. Our WFA G1 winners were made to look second rate during the Cox  Plate. Sad but this could be the way again every spring for the next few years.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: ianb on 2019-Oct-29, 12:38 PM
We can blame the breeding industry,the quick return that owners want and the training facilities but these are not the major problems. If staying racing in Australia is to improve we have to build from the bottom up. Take tomorrow's Bendigo, Hawkesbury,Ascot and Ipswich meetings. Bendigo has the 2400M Bendigo Cup; Hawkesbury has  a benchmark 64 over 2000M;Ascot has a class3 over 1800M and Ipswich does not have a race further than 1700 M. So that is 3 races further than 1700M out of 32 races.

It's the race clubs fault pure and simple.

You might say we don't have the horses that are bred to go further. The sires of the last 2 Melbourne Cups were Teofilo and High Chaparral.Both had numerous years shuttling to Australia and NZ. Then there is So You Think who has had 136 runners so far this season. He appeared to be siring winners in the 1400-1600M range but he has 2 fancied runners in the Derby on Saturday. So perhaps there just weren't the races for his earlier crops.Also Pierro and Dundeel can obviously get horses who can stay.

Sure Waller and Waterhouse are restricted to training in the metropolitan area but James Cummings has Agnes Banks, Hayes trains at Euroa and McEvoy Anguston. So the facilities are there for at least 3 of the leading trainers.

The owners can see no advantage in racing their horse in staying races when there are almost no races to compete in.

You are right Dave it is all about the money but I suggest it is all about how much the various racing organisations can make from the punters rather than attempting to improve our staying horses.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Oct-29, 02:50 PM
Quite simply Australia has a fast food culture and every has to be quick quick or quick
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: specialweek2 on 2019-Oct-29, 03:33 PM
The betting companies can fit more races in when shorter distances, more turnover.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Oct-29, 04:55 PM
Quite simply Australia has a fast food culture and every has to be quick quick or quick

Not in everything, Wily.  ;)
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Oct-29, 05:29 PM
Not with the blue 💊☺️
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: arthur on 2019-Oct-29, 05:34 PM
Not with the blue 💊☺️

Even with that . . If you don't swallow quick,quick . . You get a stiff neck . .





So I've heard
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Dave on 2019-Oct-29, 06:15 PM
Even the likes of the Hayes/McEvoy Godolphin yards having their own facilities isn't the same advantage as training at a Track like Werribee with access to a top class Course Proper that is relatively close to the big smoke.....they struggle to get quality staff, what young person wants to live in the middle of nowhere with nothing to do when the work day is finished??
99% of their labor force is transient for those stables, they bring in stable staff from overseas but when their visa expires they must pack their bags and go, replaced by the next wave,
If you go back and look at most Champs/Top class racehorses they all have one thing in common......a strapper that sticks with them wherever they go, it is akin to a love affair, the strapper loves the horse......but what isn't taken into account by many is the fact that the Horse loves the strapper too, they build a rapport that helps them both, especially the horse..........it makes for a happy horse, a happy horse is a horse that will fight every inch of a race,
The strapper lives for the horse and notices even the smallest of changes, this is very important info for the trainer, they put total trust in the person looking after the horse......they can't really do that for someone they only know by looking at their CV, can they?
When you have a transient workforce that vital ingredient never gets a chance to grow.........
My point is there is a lot more to training a horse than just the physicality aspect of it......the overseas horses have it all.....the person travelling with them loves them and virtually lives with them 24/7
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Dave on 2019-Oct-29, 06:36 PM
To answer another point brought up re the programming of more staying races......The race clubs have access to the horses in training in their areas, if no stayers are in work and they program staying races they won't get enough entries to make a race, it's a catch 22........
The real problem is too much money for WFA, set weight and baby races and restricted races of any kind.....and far too many choices for the best horses to dodge each other!.....
If you look at the Cox Plate history.....it has been won by Phar Lap(twice) Tobin Bronze(Twice) Chatham(Twice) and Rising Fast (in between his Caulfield and Melbourne Cup wins)
My point is WFA races do not need huge prizemoney to get the best horses, they will run in them anyway.......Huge money for WFA races doesn't improve the WFA race it only detracts from the peoples races.....the big handicaps, WFA racing promotes the best horses, Handicaps promotes the best racing.....where battlers can still win.
 John Wayne never won an Oscar until they felt sorry for him at the end of his career......but he put more bums on seats than any 20 Oscar winners.........Were there better actors....sure there were.........but he was the one the people loved the most.........again my point is it isn't always about sheer ability that people admire, being a bully and beating up on horses(or people) with known lesser ability isn't something that engenders admiration or makes you a hero, you have to "beat the odds" to be a Hero.....that is what is missing in today's racing and why only Drunks go to the races!.....and why Punters stray at home, there are very few who actually admire and respect the Thoroughbred Horse anymore and that's a shame!
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-30, 04:47 AM


The great race --don't tell Amanda Elliott this:

Moreira has received special clearance from Hong Kong stewards to ride in the Melbourne Cup given they only release jockeys for overseas races which are rated in the world’s top 100. The Melbourne Cup doesn’t fulfill that criteria.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Oct-30, 06:23 AM
There is another issue with Moreira coming to ride. Conspiracy theories can start now with the Boss suspension.

Racing NSW Appeals board have upto 9 days before hearing an appeal. They don’t have the time to convene till the 9th day which happens to be the day before the MC. Thus Moreira may not have a ride which means he may not be allowed to come and VRC could also lose a drawcard. The action does hot up.

Below article asks a few questions.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/glen-boss-appeal-to-ride-melbourne-cup-favourite-could-turn-farcical-20191029
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Oct-31, 07:01 AM
They weren’t on my short list but 2 big name scratchings overnight

Marmelo & Ispolini


For 2ky listeners, Kurt won’t be happy 😃
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: nemisis on 2019-Oct-31, 08:02 AM
The bone scanning equipment that brought about these scratchings is interesting.......can only be a good thing.

Racing is under such scrutiny that the last thing they need is a catastrophic breakdown like last year.

They need to enforce the new track policy.........'tracks must be prepared with give'......because that can only be good for horses.

A couple of very scratchy finishers from The Bendigo Cup yesterday should serve as a reminder as if they need to be reminded about hard ground.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Oct-31, 08:11 AM
I agree nem but the problem arises where these idiots who look after the tracks can’t even water them properly

It’s almost 2020 and if I hear one more curator complaining about wind affecting the watering I’ll take a Fcking shot gun to them🤪
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Dave on 2019-Oct-31, 02:48 PM
Gee I hope Pete doesn't read this but the glaring aspect of this whole sage of Scratching horses from the Cup after the CT scans smacks of Hypocrisy of the highest Order! I agree with what they are doing, just not why they are doing it!
They are arguing that they must look after the horses, especially after recent bad publicity......well why just look after Melbourne Cup horses?......It hasn't got anything to do with Animal rights.....it is all about publicity, by doing it with Melbourne Cup horses they get more positive publicity than they would in a Wangaratta Maiden on the same day.......and if a Horse breaks down in the Melbourne Cup a lot more bad publicity than the same thing happening in the Wangaratta maiden........so it is ALL(110%) about self interest and zero(0%) about Horse Welfare, isn't it??
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: napes on 2019-Oct-31, 02:58 PM
Spot on. More knee jerk reaction to the lefty whingers.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: nemisis on 2019-Oct-31, 04:14 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRi5Y34xrjE
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Oct-31, 04:29 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRi5Y34xrjE

This mob will never stop.

I see they are claiming that Taylor Swift is boycotting the Melbourne Cup - which is a different story to the one we are being fed by Swift's publicity team and Amanda Elliott.

Someone is telling fibs.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Arsenal on 2019-Oct-31, 06:18 PM
Marmelo's trainer considering an appeal against the stewards decision to scratch the horse based on CT scans which he claims have been cleared by UK racing vet with more experience than those in OZ.......another interesting and important point is why only scan the visitors apparently RV has no plans to require all local horses to be scanned before the Cup....hardly a level playing field.

https://www.racing.com/news/2019-10-30/news-morrison-appalled-by-cup-decision


Giddy Up :beer:
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Oct-31, 07:59 PM
Media reports suggested they were scanned because they were showing signs of soreness at the time. Is that not correct?
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Oct-31, 08:03 PM
Having done an initial analysis of the possible field - I feel my major players will come from :

True Self
Constantimople
Raymond Tusk
Mustajeer
Mirage Dancer
Mer De Glace

I have backed True Self ($75), Raymond Tusk ($21) and Mirage Dancer ($44) with True Self being a massive result.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Oct-31, 08:41 PM
A few more out with Raheeb House and Angel of Truth.

It seems now at least 3 more horses will be scratched for Saturday’s Hotham with all the withdrawals from the MC field as they are now qualified.

Showers too forecast for the weekend but not Cup Day.



Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Oct-31, 08:50 PM
Well that brings True Self down to #26   :x:
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Dave on 2019-Nov-01, 12:55 AM
Actually Napes it is more about right wing Hypocrisy and idolising the mighty Dollar over everything else.........more than knee jerk reacting to Lefty whingers!.....Whether you agree with them or not the lefty whingers are genuine in their love for the animals and I am 100% in agreement with their cause......
conversely Right Wingers are only worried about protecting their own arse something that I can't stand, at least they should say who they are, don't hide behind the pretense of being an animal lover.....when all they really are are money lovers......not that there is anything wrong with loving money.....but come out of the closet and claim the prize............don't be hypocrites was my point!
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: nemisis on 2019-Nov-01, 08:00 AM
Flemington is a brutal track for thoroughbreds when it is firm.

With showers forecast on Saturday it will be tricky for the track manager.
The new track policy states that the track must be prepared with give even if rain is forecast.
It also states that the track manager can't be criticised for adhering to the policy.

Makybe Diva Stakes 2018 was a day when rain was forecast and never arrived and the carnage from that day was a disgrace.

So many good horses completely buggered and many never the same.

While not on that day the Belgravia breakdown was the worst I have ever seen on any track......certainly not something first timers would ever want to witness.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Arsenal on 2019-Nov-01, 04:23 PM
No right of appeal on Marmelo's scratching but connections are considering claims for compensation would be a long shot even allowing for different opinions on the horse's condition the UK vet v the OZ team .....strange that RV is only submitting visitors from Europe to the CT scan why exempt Aussie runners RV hasn't explained their reasoning for testing one lot but not the other.
CM story today
"THE owners of 2018 Melbourne Cup runner-up Marmelo will pursue legal action against Racing Victoria, claiming they have been wrongly denied a start this year.
Victorian businessman Ozzie Kheir said yesterday that he and fellow owners Johnny O’Neill, Victor Kheir and Phil Mehrten believed RV had not “properly followed process” when scratching the horse from Tuesday’s $8 million race.
“We’ve had legal advice that there are no avenues of appeal to have Marmelo reinstated in the Melbourne Cup,” Kheir said.
“But we will be seeking advice on pursuing Racing Victoria for damages.
“We believe the process has not been properly followed.”
Marmelo and Godolphin’s Ispolini were scratched on veterinary advice after RV claimed CT scans showed they had significant injury concerns.
RV said the results of Marmelo’s scan indicated “an incomplete fracture of the near fore cannon bone and an incomplete fracture in its off hind cannon bone”.
It is uncertain on what grounds Marmelo’s owners would pursue damages against RV, but the combined expense of flying the horse to Australia with a groom, training and feeding would exceed $100,000.
A $14 chance with Ladbrokes before his elimination, Marmelo earned $1 million for running second to Cross Counter in last year’s Cup.
Kheir said he would approach Victorian Racing Minister Martin Pakula and the state Ombudsman to seek “a full investigation over the processes that have occurred”.
“We want an investigation into the actions of Jamie Stier (RV head of integrity), Robert Cram (chairman of stewards) and Grace Forbes (RV vet),” Kheir said.
“I do not want any other trainer or owner to go through what we have.
“RV is using a new CT scan with no data, no research and a horse that has nothing wrong with it is out of the Melbourne Cup.
“We have advice from a world-renowned guru, an expert in the field (Dr Ian Wright) who says the horse is fit to take his place in the field.”
In a scathing attack, Morrison said connections had been “hoodwinked” and a Group 1 opportunity had been “stolen from Marmelo.”
“We’ve been hoodwinked here,” he said.
“We’ve been brought here under false pretences.
“We think the interpretation from (University of Melbourne’s) Dr Whitton or maybe Grace Forbes, who I didn’t know was a CT expert, is incorrect. It cost us all a huge amount of money and effort.
“Marmelo is a magnificent horse, we love him and we would do nothing to harm him.”
Stier was unmoved in the face of criticism from Morrison and said on all the information available, officials concluded the “risk profile” of the horses demanded they be scratched.
“We believe these horses don’t pass the risk test we are putting place for this year’s race,” he said.
Stewards said the decision to withdraw both horses was made to “ensure the safety and wellbeing” of all horses and riders in the race.
The orders came as Saeed bin Suroor’s veteran Red Galileo faces an uncertain future with a leg fracture sustained in trackwork on Wednesday.
Internationals Red Verdon and Gold Mount were last week ruled out through injury."

ENDS

Whatever happened to the Macedon Lodge Lloyd Williams case a couple of years ago when LLoyd threatened legal action after one of his Cup candidates was ruled unsound.

Giddy Up :beer:

Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: nemisis on 2019-Nov-01, 04:36 PM
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/lloyd-williams-settles-amralah-damages-case-against-vet/news-story/d78c315f842efa9cd2b994cd7fc8a301

Hopefully this won't come up behind a paywall.

I'm certain you are talking about Amralah.......Quietly settled.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Arsenal on 2019-Nov-01, 04:39 PM
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/lloyd-williams-settles-amralah-damages-case-against-vet/news-story/d78c315f842efa9cd2b994cd7fc8a301

Hopefully this won't come up behind a paywall.

I'm certain you are talking about Amralah.......Quietly settled.

Thanks nemisis for that but no details of the settlement I found the original post but no follow up.

http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/vic-gallops/williams-sues-vet/msg588731/#msg588731

Giddy Up :beer:

Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: charlie on 2019-Nov-01, 06:08 PM

This youtube clip seems to have disappeared.

Maybe some legal action?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRi5Y34xrjE
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-03, 02:29 AM
Race 7 - 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES)

Of $7,750,000.1st $4,400,000, 2nd $1,100,000, 3rd $550,000, 4th $350,000, 5th $230,000, 6th $160,000, 7th $160,000, 8th $160,000, 9th $160,000, 10th $160,000, 11th $160,000, 12th $160,000

Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution GROUP 1
Handicap, Minimum Weight 49kg, Apprentices cannot claim.


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 12x1x1x434 CROSS COUNTER (GB) Charlie Appleby William Buick 5 57.5kg
2 211x11x1x1 MER DE GLACE (JPN) Hisashi Shimizu Damian Lane 2 56kg
3 7250x14335 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) Joseph O'Brien Frankie Dettori 1 55.5kg
4 2x0x1322x3 MIRAGE DANCER (GB) Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Ben Melham 13 55.5kg
5 37x3264413 SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Mark Zahra 14 55.5kg
6 3344465881 HUNTING HORN (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Seamie Heffernan 11 55kg
7 220x344216 LATROBE (IRE) Joseph O'Brien James McDonald 22 55kg
8 4x1x723516 MUSTAJEER (GB) Kris Lees Damien Oliver 6 55kg
9 251557x790 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Dwayne Dunn 12 55kg
10 423x2411x7 TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) Joseph O'Brien Hugh Bowman 19 55kg
11 x1x34x5125 FINCHE (GB) Chris Waller Kerrin McEvoy 4 54kg
12 8x49x58321 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie Fellowes Michael Walker 8 54kg
13 1x6x237x4x RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) Richard Hannon Jamie Spencer 3 54kg
14 x196112x31 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) Joseph O'Brien John Allen 15 53.5kg
15 2x53220224 MAGIC WAND (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Ryan Moore 24 53.5kg
16 2x30x80709 NEUFBOSC (FR) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Luke Nolen 23 53.5kg
17 00x048x070 SOUND (GER) Michael Moroney James Winks 10 53.5kg
18 1514132x41 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) Paul Preusker Jordan Childs 20 53.5kg
19 531x212224 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Joao Moreira 7 52.5kg
20 322x17135 IL PARADISO (USA) Aidan O'Brien Wayne Lordan 17 52.5kg
21 x11111x467 STEEL PRINCE (IRE) Anthony Freedman Brett Prebble 16 52.5kg
22 0141x59195 THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman Tim Clark 18 52kg
23 1x36621x42 VOW AND DECLARE Danny O'Brien Craig Williams 21 52kg
24 x059x87873 YOUNGSTAR Chris Waller Tommy Berry 9 52kg
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-03, 02:48 AM
Six of last year's runners backing up and the weight differences.

You'd have to say that Prince Of Arran, Finche and Youngstar were close enough to be considered a chance given their relative weight advantage over Cross Counter - 1 kg = 1 length over these sorts of distances.

Finish No Horse Margin Bar. Weight Starting Price Weight This Year Difference
1 23 CROSS COUNTER
19 51 9 57.5 6.5
2 9 MARMELO 1L 10 3 12

3 17 PRINCE OF ARRAN 3L 20 53 21 54 1
4 13 FINCHE 3.5L 15 54 26 54 0
5 24 ROSTROPOVICH 4.5L 21 51 21 55 4
6 22 YOUNGSTAR 5.75L 8 51.5 11 52 0.5
7 19 SIR CHARLES ROAD 8.25L 14 53kg 101

8 1 BEST SOLUTION 8.75L 6 57.5kg 16

9 5 MUNTAHAA 9.5L 13 55.5kg 17

10 16 VENTURA STORM 11L 7 54kg (cd 54.5kg) 31

11 11 YUCATAN 11.75L 23 54.5kg 6

12 18 NAKEETA 11.85L 3 53kg 81

13 20 ZACADA 13.85L 24 53kg 101

14 4 CHESTNUT COAT 16.1L 4 55.5kg 71

15 15 VENGEUR MASQUE 16.3L 2 54kg 51

16 3 MAGIC CIRCLE 19.55L 17 56kg 7

17 7 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 22.55L 18 55.5kg 31

18 6 SOUND 27.55L 16 55.5 41 53.5 -2
19 21 RUNAWAY 28.05L 12 52kg 41

20 8 ACE HIGH 28.15L 22 55kg 71

21 12 AUVRAY 68.15L 1 54kg 81

22 10 AVILIUS 69.15L 11 54.5kg 16

23 14 RED CARDINAL 69.55L 5 54kg 31

FF 2 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER 0L 9 56.5kg 21

Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Nov-03, 07:44 AM
There were only two horses in the last 20 years who won a cup after backing up from previous year when they did not win.

Brew and Fiorente were the ones.

Makybe Diva won 3 so 2 from backing up.

Thus only 4 Cups were won from horses backing up after running in a previous years cup.

The runners from last year backing up are listed below.

Cross Counter
Finche
Prince of Arran
Youngstar
Rostropovich
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Nov-03, 07:49 AM
Only 4 horses won the CC and MC double in last 30 years.

Ethereal, Might and Power, Doreimus and Lets Elope. They were all very good horses.

Most others backing up did not even finish in top 3.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-03, 07:56 AM
I've looked at the form and tried to get all the relevant races out.

The below has taken the weight carried and the distance beaten, then accounted for the weights they will carry on Tuesday.

The final figure, "lengths", is the number of lengths that the horses will (predictably) finish on Tuesday relative to the other horses in each reference race.

Based on 1kg per length for staying races of 2800m or more, and 1.5kg per length for the Caulfield Cup.


Lengths
2018 Melbourne Cup
FINCHE 0.00
PRINCE OF ARRAN 0.50
YOUNGSTAR 2.25
CROSS COUNTER 2.50
ROSTROPOVICH 4.50


Caulfield Cup
MER DE GLACE 0.00
VOW AND DECLARE 0.25
MIRAGE DANCER 0.45
CONSTANTINOPLE 0.65
FINCHE 0.85
MUSTAJEER 1.05
THE CHOSEN ONE 3.00
SOUND 3.25
ROSTROPOVICH 6.35


Vintage Crop (2800m)
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 0.70
MUSTAJEER (GB) 0.00
SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) 2.00
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 2.90


Irish St Leger (2800m)
SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) 0.00
CROSS COUNTER (GB) 2.20
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 2.50
LATROBE (IRE) 3.75
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 5.80


Curragh Cup (2800m)
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 0.00
LATROBE (IRE) 0.30
SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) 2.80
MUSTAJEER (GB) 3.75


Irish St Leger Trial (2800m)
SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) 0.00
DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 0.00
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 3.00


Moonee Valley Cup
HUNTING HORN (IRE) 0.00
DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 1.00


Ebor Hcp (2800m)
MUSTAJEER (GB) 0.50
RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) 0.00
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 3.30


Levmoss Stakes
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 0.00
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 5.30
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-03, 07:59 AM
What’s gone wrong with Rostropovich?

Any reports?
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-03, 08:06 AM
Some observations when doing the form:

i) There are a clump of Irish horses whom I refer to as "The Europeans" who all seem to be weighted similarly and seem to take turns in winning. Any of The Europeans could win the race if things go their way on race day.

ii) Two horses, Hunting Horn and Magic Wand, seem to have been running around in a lot stronger races than The Europeans. They often run in international Group 1 races and a lot of the form had Enable winning the race.

iii) The Japanese horse Mer De Glace has an undeniable chance but at $6.50 all the value has been sucked out.

iv) Finche, Prince Of Arran and Youngstar are weighted to provide an opportunity to reverse the result on Cross Counter from last year.

Forced to go 1-2-3-4-5 at this stage I'd go:

Mer De Glace
Hunting Horn
Finche
Magic Wand
Youngstar

Noted that Chris Waller is winning anything and everything at the moment and his two charges, Finche and Youngstar, seem to be in the race with a good chance.

I like Youngstar's prep. This time last year she was having her 5th campaign run in The Cup (6th). This time around he has given her one more run and wondering if Waller has changed her prep a little to get her to peak on Cup day. $51 appeals for some sort of saver.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-03, 08:11 AM
Using an imprecise rating system (0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 stars) and converting that into a value price (adding 50% for error) I came up with 5 value chances on Tuesday.

Still think Mer De Glace will win but you never know. I've kinda "potted" Cross Counter and Constantinople so might end up in the doghouse if one of those two wins.

No Last 10 Horse Rating Win Chance Odds Required Current Odds Value Value Quant
1 12x1x1x434 CROSS COUNTER (GB) 1 2.70% $55.50 $13.00 NO
2 211x11x1x1 MER DE GLACE (JPN) 4 10.81% $13.88 $6.50 NO
3 7250x14335 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 2 5.41% $27.75 $17.00 NO
4 2x0x1322x3 MIRAGE DANCER (GB) 1 2.70% $55.50 $34.00 NO
5 37x3264413 SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) 2 5.41% $27.75 $26.00 NO
6 3344465881 HUNTING HORN (IRE) 4 10.81% $13.88 $34.00 YES 245.05%
7 220x344216 LATROBE (IRE) 1 2.70% $55.50 $26.00 NO
8 4x1x723516 MUSTAJEER (GB) 2 5.41% $27.75 $17.00 NO
9 251557x790 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) 0 0.00%
$67.00

10 423x2411x7 TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 1 2.70% $55.50 $81.00 YES 145.95%
11 x1x34x5125 FINCHE (GB) 3 8.11% $18.50 $10.00 NO
12 8x49x58321 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 2 5.41% $27.75 $21.00 NO
13 1x6x237x4x RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) 1 2.70% $55.50 $15.00 NO
14 x196112x31 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 2 5.41% $27.75 $17.00 NO
15 2x53220224 MAGIC WAND (IRE) 3 8.11% $18.50 $26.00 YES 140.54%
16 2x30x80709 NEUFBOSC (FR) 0 0.00%
$201.00

17 00x048x070 SOUND (GER) 0 0.00%
$101.00

18 1514132x41 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 0 0.00%
$15.00

19 531x212224 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 1 2.70% $55.50 $8.00 NO
20 322x17135 IL PARADISO (USA) 1 2.70% $55.50 $15.00 NO
21 x11111x467 STEEL PRINCE (IRE) 0 0.00%
$67.00

22 0141x59195 THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 1 2.70% $55.50 $101.00 YES 181.98%
23 1x36621x42 VOW AND DECLARE 2 5.41% $27.75 $11.00 NO
24 x059x87873 YOUNGSTAR 3 8.11% $18.50 $51.00 YES 275.68%
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Nov-03, 08:14 AM
When assessing the weights from last years Cup I think you need to remember Cross Counter was in fact 3yo and in theory you would expect about 3kg of age improvement over the last 12 months. This expected improvement seems to be confirmed by his ratings in his two runs against Stradivarius.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Nov-03, 08:20 AM
I'd be interested in the opinion of our regular European racing experts - Magic Wand looks a serious doubt at the 3200 to me.

I though Raymond Tusk's Ebor run was fantastic after going back from a wide draw and the European commentators I've heard describe him as having a bit of class and a turn of foot. Drawn 3 here.

Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: fours on 2019-Nov-03, 08:52 AM
People,

We know the Japs are lengths superior - even to the European horses.

Makes a stand out selection rather easy.

Remember some years back 2 2nd raters from Japan streeted the field and ran the quinella - several days daylight 3rd.

Fours
ps a helping hand in firezuki's absence. My contribution is not to forget variance and allow for bad luck, overseas jockeys deliberately breaking the rules before a holiday they were taking anyway etc etc so by allmeans save with your other pick
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-03, 03:28 PM
When assessing the weights from last years Cup I think you need to remember Cross Counter was in fact 3yo and in theory you would expect about 3kg of age improvement over the last 12 months. This expected improvement seems to be confirmed by his ratings in his two runs against Stradivarius.


I think he’s a good thing :thumbsup:
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-03, 03:30 PM
Raymond Tusk was my early pick but he’s always been too short for me.
Hoping to get better odds on the day
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-03, 03:48 PM
I had a little snip at the $81 Twilight Payment earlier today. Noticed it came into $67 an hour later and is now into $51.
 
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Nov-03, 04:42 PM
100%   
MarketRequiredNoRatingHorse
$20.00 $7.12 1359.2Raymond Tusk
$8.10 $9.10 258.2Mer De Glace
$17.75 $9.77 1858.4Surprise Baby
$9.20 $11.71 1957.5Constantinople
$20.50 $14.21 1257.5Prince Of Arran
$11.70 $17.07 1156.5Finche
$23.50 $18.54 1456.8Downdraft
$16.00 $18.97 156.5Cross Counter
$13.75 $19.56 2356.2Vow And Declare
$19.50 $22.34 856.1Mustajeer
$24.00 $22.57 556.3Southern France
$15.30 $22.66 2055.8Il Paradiso
$45.00 $35.64 455.3Mirage Dancer
$28.50 $50.76 353.7Master Of Reality
$68.00 $57.21 1054.2Twilight Payment
$33.00 $64.09 753.1Latrobe
$30.50 $71.19 1552.1Magic Wand
$51.00 $82.05 652.8Hunting Horn
$125.00 $105.03 2252.9The Chosen One
$49.00 $114.36 2451.3Youngstar
$87.50 $133.42 2151.8Steel Prince
$110.00 $256.74 947.4Rostropovich
$220.00 $294.22 1750.2Sound
$320.00 $524.25 1648.7Neufbosc

I have a ratings model I use every year for the Cup - modified a couple of years ago to use Racing Post Ratings - this years output is above.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-03, 05:02 PM
I had a little snip at the $81 Twilight Payment earlier today. Noticed it came into $67 an hour later and is now into $51.

There’s about 6 of the pommies who constantly swap places with each other. They clash regularly

There is no standout form line so the bigger price on TP is values
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: pegasyber on 2019-Nov-03, 05:45 PM
I very much doubt that this years 2019 Melbourne Cup selections from the simple idiots guide to picking the Winner by just Pencil and newspaper; extracting only one piece of Form data; will be as  good as This Forum's  2018 Melbourne Cup post  #223 display showed, but here is this year's selections using the same manual non computerised workings.
Quote
VF140817 MC70511F * RACE NAME ID* [ MC70511F  2019.  MELBOURNE CUP,,,,,,,,,,, 3200 mtrs].  RESULT  [                  ]  F4 Pays $.
 * * * *  * * * * * * * * *  *  * * * *         :bash: Winning Post looking from the Flat.
VF140817 MC50611F * LOW LRAC SPRICE [  1  12  14  21  22  19  24    ]  Order *

   1  CROSS COUNTER.
  12  PRINCE OF ARRAN.
  14  DOWNDRAFT.
  21  STEEL PRINCE.
  22  THE CHOSEN ONE.
  19 CONSTANTINOPLE.
  24  YOUNGSTAR.

  Don't Bet the house on this one but enjoy the simplicity of just Boxing the first four, or any  four  of these selections, for $6.00 ( giving 25% of F4 divvy if those four are placed in any order ) and at least save yourself some angst and much time.  It is quite possible there may be not a single placegetter in the mix shown,[   1  12  14  21  22  19  24    ],   but that is all a part of the  magic of the madness of trying to pick the winner of the Melbourne Cup  in any year; especially if Track is SOFT.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-04, 08:01 AM

1  12  14  21 22  24

Thanks peg, i will box these up🤗
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: nemisis on 2019-Nov-05, 06:30 AM
I will always remain surprised when ratings are done on a race before the track surface has been declared.

For mine a soft 6 track has a Galileo type's name written all over it......stamina is going to be required.

I've counted only 7 horse in the race that don't carry the Sadler's Wells bloodlines so good luck.

Watched a few overseas races yesterday and I'll have something small on Southern France and Il Paradiso.

The galloping action of Finche is worth a comment.......looks like he can keep it going all day.

The question there is ...will a full 12 months of the Waller 'treatment' find the extra 4 lengths required?
Plenty of punters seem to think it will and I can understand why.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: nemisis on 2019-Nov-05, 03:54 PM
Clicked over to channel 10 while waiting for the protest result.

Francesca Cumani was assuring viewers that the good thing was all horses had pulled up well or words to that effect.

It was pretty clear there  was a horse out the back, not looking so good.

Rostropovich is now at the Werribee Equine centre with a suspected cracked pelvis.

It's a difficult time for racing for sure but let's not pretend.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: pegasyber on 2019-Nov-05, 04:02 PM
Quote
VF140817 MC70511F * RACE NAME ID* [ MC70511F  2019.  MELBOURNE CUP,,,,,,,,,,, 3200 mtrs].  RESULT  [    23  3  12  20   But Protest lodged  ]  F4 Pays $.
 * * * *  * * * * * * * * *  *  * * * *         :bash: Winning Post looking from the Flat.
VF140817 MC50611F * LOW LRAC SPRICE [  1 12    14  21 22  19  24    ]  Order *

  Integrity Rating of the Event 25% at best.

  Protest by fourth against second upheld and new placings RESULT  [   23  12  20  3  ] F4 Pays $ 68,721.
 What a Shower!!.  Well I did not bet so did not even lose $6.00.
 
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Nov-05, 04:47 PM
Some of the winners and losers. There are some  :whistle: bets for a few $.

https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/melbourne-cup/melbourne-cup-2019-the-biggest-winners-and-losers/news-story/8e133d0006107a00d3f5252bd2ef5212
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Arsenal on 2019-Nov-06, 09:46 AM
THE POSITIVES & NEGATIVES OF A MEMORABLE MELBOURNE CUP

IT was the fairytale finish that Australian punters and racing followers prayed for when Vow and Declare won the Melbourne Cup but the Danny O’Brien-trained stayer, owned by a group of battlers from Queensland was lucky to win the race that stops a nation.

A farcically slow paced aided by a brilliant Craig Williams ride destroyed the prospects of many and boosted the chances of Vow and Declare. Add to that interference near the finish cost the international Il Paradiso an almost certain victory.

The bravest of the beaten brigade was Surprise Baby who defied the farcical pace, a pretty ordinary ride from a bad barrier and a lack of cover from 800m out to come from last and finish the unluckiest of fifths.

THE POSITIVES of the 2019 MELBOURNE CUP:

A syndicate of everyday Queenslanders shared in the ownership of Vow & Declare the first Melbourne Cup win by an Australian-bred horse in a decade.
VOW & DECLARE struck an increasingly rare blow for the locals against a marauding band on international invaders.
CRAIG WILLIAMS shed his Melbourne Cup demons at his 15th ride in the big race – crossing from a wide alley and enjoying a gun run – predicting to his wife Larysa that he would win straight after the Caulfield Cup.
DANNY O’BRIEN added the Melbourne Cup to previous wins in the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup but most of all completed the rebuilding of his training career after the infamous cobalt case that threatened to sink him.
STEWARDS added a theatrical touch to the finish upholding their own protest relegating MASTER OF REALITY to fourth and elevating PRINCE OF ARRAN & IL PARADISO to second and third respectively.
MATT HILL has again been praised for his superb call of the CUP which produced a very tricky finish. He is destined to be one of the great race broadcasters.
THE NETWORK 10 coverage, especially the commentary of FRANSECA CUMANI & form analyst DAVID GATELY was first class. Just when we thought we had got rid of that pesky JASON RICHARDSON with SEVEN losing telecast rights he just jumps back aboard the racing.com coverage in his ridiculous pork-pie hat with his giggly, annoying, ill-informed commentary that drives most punters to the mute button.
ONE punter has gone from winning zero as the horses crossed the line to a payout of almost $800,000 after stewards upheld the Cup protest. The punter placed a $10 straight first four with Sportsbet, requiring Vow And Declare to win, Prince Of Arran to run second, Il Paradiso to run third and Master Of Reality to run fourth. Guess he’s lucky the corporate didn’t find some tricky clause not to pay him.
THE NEGATIVES:

A FARCICALLY slow pace (adds some merit to the Poms putting pacemakers in these big races) that crushed the chances of several fancies & aided the on-pacers with even O’BRIEN & WILLIAMS admitting it helped VOW & DECLARE win.
THE CUP nightmare continued for international superstar jockey FRANKIE DETTORI who copped a nine-meeting suspension (should it have been much longer) for costing another visitor IL PARDISO an almost certain win in the big race. It was the second time in five years that Lloyd Williams’ love child has been suspended in the Cup. He couldn’t care less because he knows he will just get a tap on the wrist.
PRINCE OF ARRAN was a brave Cup placegetter for the second successive year and trainer Charlie Fellowes has declared he hopes to make it third time lucky in 2020. Jockey Michael Walker, fined $10,000 for excessive use of the whip, tossed his toys (saddle) out of the cot in a little tantrum in the jockeys’ room after the race.
THE theory that you need big race jockeys for big races (not necessarily to replace an accomplished woman rider) was proven yet again when Jordan Childs, with all due respects, was out of his class on SURPRISE BABY which arguably should have gone close to winning. Despite the slow speed which didn’t suit the local hope, Childs elected to drag her back to last from a horror draw rather than look for some cover midfield. He then took off from the 800m mark and blamed nothing to take him into the race for his defeat. SURPRISE BABY came from last on the turn to finish an eye-catching fifth. It was an enormous run.
FINCHE (7th) dashed the hopes of champion trainer CHRIS WALLER’S Maiden Cup win. He will live to fight another day and was humble in defeat but one could argue that FINCHE once again didn’t run out the 3200m. One cynic sent an email suggesting: ‘The best chance of Chris winning the Melbourne Cup is if they move it to Sydney’.
DAMIEN LANE described the run of Caulfield Cup winner MER DE GLACE, which finished sixth, as massive adding that the slow tempo had not helped.
LAST year’s winner CROSS COUNTER ran 8th after being slowly away.
JOAO MOREIRA, who flew in from Hong Kong to ride the highly fancied CONSTANTINOPLE said the horse was most disappointing.
JOCKEYS John Allen and Damien Oliver on DOWNDRAFT & MUSTAJEER which finished near the tail of the field blamed the farcically slow pace but neither had much to offer at the finish.
ROSTROPROVICH sadly broke a pelvis and was eased down in the straight but TEAM HAYES say the horse may race again after positive reports from the veterinary hospital.
RACING Victoria stewards adjourned an inquiry into alleged race day treatment on Cup day. They ordered the withdrawal of the Richard Laming-trained JAMAICAN RAIN after the mare was found to be sore in a knee during a race morning stable inspection. But it was not all the Compliance Assurance Team (CAT) allegedly found. An inquiry was also opened into a contravention of race day treatment of the mare.
THE crowd at FLEMINGTON – on a day when the weather gods were kind – was just above 81,400 – the lowest since 1993. Racegoers had to run the gauntlet with a cauldron of animal activist protesters and signage.
THERE were six arrests at Flemington (probably more at tracks outside Melbourne like Eagle Farm where they traditional carry on like morons on these big days) – four for drunkenness and one each for drug possession and an outstanding warrant.
VICTORIA and Australian Federal Police are also investigating a drone which was flown into unauthorized airspace and seized.
THE ride-sharing service Uber has crashed, causing more drama for racegoers trying to find their way home. Many had to do battle with the ferals on the trains. 
Letsgohorseracing report..............www.letsgohorseracing.com

Giddy Up :beer:
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-06, 01:03 PM
THE crowd at FLEMINGTON – on a day when the weather gods were kind – was just above 81,400

They kept banging on about 100,000 people - even the jockey interviewing Craig Williams said to him "there are 100,000 people back there waiting to cheer you" (or very similar words) as he was going back to scale.

So there was nowhere near 100,000 people?

I thought they got 100k every year - that is the impression you get reading the media.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-06, 01:15 PM
This article by Patrick Smith in yesterday's Oz got a lot of nasty comments directed at Pat:

Melbourne Cup 2019: Beyond the suits and suites is a sport that terrorises its stars

It is the dizziest time of the year, that last glass of bubbling hope can see you go from tippled to toppled. Rituals that have been 158 cups in the making demand jockey and galloper get back on the crystal even if it is only to topple back down.

An already bruised sport is falling from public interest and it can no longer presume its place in Australian culture will be or even is revered.

The most deleterious day in sport is also the most disingenuous. Because the Melbourne Cup is the day of the big lie. It is a tradition or curse more than a century old.

The sport is a glorious one and the Cup, run over 3200 metres, leaves the strongest and fittest horses sucking for oxygen. The final clawing over the last few metres must have the horses feeling they have used their God-given share and more. Melbourne Cups are not won without limitless courage. For lesser or underprepared competitors, it can be a death march.

Everything else about Melbourne Cup Day is a fantasy. Clobber worth more than a family car. Enough grog to turn the track to a heavy 10. Taylor Swift is coming but the singer is gone before she comes. The Cup is worth $8 million and about that much again short of being the richest race in the country.

The controversy about the treatment of racehorses has made graphic news this spring. The scenes from a Queensland abattoir have revolted the nation. Retired, broken down or just slow horses are slaughtered heartily. No dignity or respect afforded the horses here. No dignity or respect, either, deserved for the humans who lunge at the panicked horses with poles or batter them with pieces of wood. Cheering them to their death.

Racing officials suddenly find a couple of lengths; prepared to take the neatest of gaps and treat the weight of the news of the cruel death of horses with grim looks and eyebrows that work overtime.

Last week Racing Victoria, which in its defence had been working on a proposal to improve both the image of the sport and the health of the horse, said it planned to spend $25m on a scheme to improve the welfare of Victorian thoroughbreds.

It is a plan of many parts: a statewide rehoming program; post-racing career options: statewide foster program; an advanced tracking system; an equine welfare taskforce; humane euthanasia, and responsible breeding. No mention of the bleeding obvious.

RV chairman Brian Kruger likes his board’s plan.

“Victoria’s vision is to be a leader in equine welfare practices. Whilst the industry has achieved many great outcomes over recent years and has a clear pathway for the future, it is clear we need to step up and do more,” Kruger said.

But this was the critical point. “The horses are the stars of our sport and no one will argue that they must be treated as such.”

Here is the shameful hypocrisy, worthy of an Australian politician. The horses are the stars of the show? Fantasy. The world stood about more than a decade ago when Australian jockeys went on strike so they could be allowed to whip their horses more often after strict whip rules were introduced. It was argued jockeys needed the whips for control. Good safety measure. Just don’t smack the horses for an extra quid or two. Then we found out jockeys could not count when the rules limited the number of strikes in the final 100 metres. Next the bastards would ask them to walk and chew gum at the same time.

Australian racing sophisticated? No wonder abattoirs cared little for the horses if the nation’s officials allowed them to be crashed time and again by a whip.

No, our racing has no heart. Officials allow horses to be whipped five times before the final 100 metres and at the jockey’s discretion after that. Let’s say that’s the possibility of 15 strikes a horse after the 100m post.

So what effect does that have on the Melbourne Cup field? Well, let’s agree on a kind figure that, combined, the horses in the Cup may be hit 24x15 times. That’s 360 whacks between the 100m and the finish. Add the five before the 100 and we have another 120 lashes. Add that to the 360 in the final 100 and there is the potential for the field in today’s Cup to be hit some 480 times.

Accept some horses will not be in contention so will be spared the thrashing whip, but accept too that since prizemoney goes down to 12th spot there will still be a whole lot of whipping going on. That’s how Australian racing treats its “stars”. How absurd.

It is simply impossible for the racing industry to convince the public that it cares dearly for its “stars” if they are allowed to be beaten by the whip with the ferocity of jockeys chasing big money.

And the argument that the whip doesn’t hurt is rendered useless, not just by weight of scientific evidence, but by the urgency of jockeys to strike the horse. Hitting horses is not encouragement. It is a threatening demand.

Australian racing will never be as professional and sophisticated as it pretended to be this spring. Not until it operates as one body. Shouldn’t be hard to find one.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/beyond-the-suits-and-suites-is-a-sport-that-terrorises-its-stars/
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Nov-06, 04:28 PM
THE crowd at FLEMINGTON – on a day when the weather gods were kind – was just above 81,400

They kept banging on about 100,000 people - even the jockey interviewing Craig Williams said to him "there are 100,000 people back there waiting to cheer you" (or very similar words) as he was going back to scale.

So there was nowhere near 100,000 people?

I thought they got 100k every year - that is the impression you get reading the media.

I agree with you PP as I expected 100k too. Then again Randwick on Tuesday was only a few 1000 short of equaling the hyped up Golden Eagle crowd at Rosehill.

I just don’t know if the younger generation are going to the races as much as before as most middle aged people prefer to watch at home with their families and friends in Melbourne. The tourists though love it.



Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Dave on 2019-Nov-12, 04:25 PM
The huge mistake they made  with the Melbourne Cup is.....they turned it into just another Horse race.....it is a better horse race but as Horse racing only appeals to a small minority that is getting smaller by the day....another Horse race to replace an Australian Icon was not the way to go.......The Melbourne Cup was uniquely Australian, it was more than a Horse race it was AUSTRALIAN to the core and it appealed to 99% of Australians, just like the Aussie Barb B Que, we never threw a "Shrimp" on the Barbie, did we??.....but I digress back to the Cup, it has lost it's iconic status, it's not an icon, not any more, it doesn't stop the nation any more.....now it is a horse race......nothing against over seas horses or connections, let them come out here for a new race or any other race but keep the Cup for Aussies still with great Prizemoney......it is Like asking the Catholic Church to put a price on the Vatican.....The Cup has an Australian Soul, if we had any morals we wouldn't sell our soul, would we?
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-13, 10:37 AM
The huge mistake they made  with the Melbourne Cup is.....they turned it into just another Horse race.....it is a better horse race but as Horse racing only appeals to a small minority that is getting smaller by the day....another Horse race to replace an Australian Icon was not the way to go.......The Melbourne Cup was uniquely Australian, it was more than a Horse race it was AUSTRALIAN to the core and it appealed to 99% of Australians, just like the Aussie Barb B Que, we never threw a "Shrimp" on the Barbie, did we??.....but I digress back to the Cup, it has lost it's iconic status, it's not an icon, not any more, it doesn't stop the nation any more.....now it is a horse race......nothing against over seas horses or connections, let them come out here for a new race or any other race but keep the Cup for Aussies still with great Prizemoney......it is Like asking the Catholic Church to put a price on the Vatican.....The Cup has an Australian Soul, if we had any morals we wouldn't sell our soul, would we?

I agree with that Dave.

However the other possibility that occurs to me is that maybe we are getting older and the race loses that magic as the years roll on?

Not sure.

But there was something about this year that was missing  :chin:
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2019-Nov-13, 10:44 AM
2019 was the best Cup since 1988 which was the best since 1973 which was the best since 1964 which was the best since 1961 which was the best since 1959.

 :no1: :no1: :no1: :no1: :no1: :no1:
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Nov-13, 06:02 PM
I agree with that Dave.

However the other possibility that occurs to me is that maybe we are getting older and the race loses that magic as the years roll on?

Not sure.

But there was something about this year that was missing  :chin:

I agree PP. Olympics is another big example of reduced interest.

Wall to wall racing and sports has made us also desensitised too as we now can see things all the time and on demand too.

I used to get excited about big games and races, now it is vastly less. A lot more entertainment options now too for the younger generation too.

In 10 years time, most sports will have less and less live crowds too. I doubt in our lifetime will we ever see a packed race crowd more than a couple of times a year in Sydney or Melbourne.
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Dave on 2019-Nov-19, 01:43 PM
People are losing interest in racing.....there is no doubt about that....and that was my point!!!!!!
It doesn't matter how good a race the Melbourne Cup is, you could have the best horses from around the globe all line up....it would still be just a horse race
You could invite all the best  horses from around the world and put them in a different race and it would not have the same interest as the Melbourne Cup full of Aussie horse, Aussie owners/Trainers/Jockeys etc but most importantly Aussie dreams! (by the way I am not against Aussies buying stayers from over seas, it ain't the horses that are the problem)
Kill the Dream and you kill the interest and that is what they have done
The Melbourne Cup was far more than that, it was the race that stops a nation, It was an ICON not just a race....it is no longer an Icon and the race doesn't matter!
But racing in general has gone that way and that is why the public have lost interest, in England etc racing was the sport of Kings but in Australia it was a sport Battlers could compete in........not any more.....there are no stories of how a Vic Rail or a Joe Janiak beat the odds, they were about 20 years apart and it has been a long time since Take Over Target raced....... but in days gone by they happened every week, people could relate to battlers.....that is why racing was on the back pages of every paper, it was what people wanted to read about, they don't care if Godolphin win another Group One, that ain't news!
Do what they want with other races but they should have left the Melbourne Cup an Icon for Aussies!
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: fours on 2019-Nov-19, 08:34 PM
Dave,

Pretty sure that Surprise Baby was a cheapy.

Possibly best run on we've seen for some time given the slow pace as well.

Fours
Title: 2019 MELBOURNE CUP
Post by: Dave on 2019-Nov-20, 08:37 PM
fours, Surprise Baby is the exception, not the rule, she was outstanding and as I said I don't really care where a horse comes from, it isn't just about the horses, it is about the dream and Horses don't grow up hoping and dreaming they can win a Melbourne Cup,
It is an Aussie Icon.....would the Italians sell the Vatican if they were offered enough Money?
Would Egypt sell the Pyramids?? Australia just closed Ayers Rock(Uluru) to the Public cos it is an ICON not just a piece of Real Estate
Once Australians give up the dream all is lost as far as being an Icon is concerned.....it isn't just Owners, it is more Trainers and Jockeys, it is their life long wish to win a Melbourne Cup......now only a few of the Millionaire Jockeys have a chance to chase rides from overseas stables
If it was a True Melbourne Cup there is little doubt Surprise Baby wins, by true Melbourne Cup I mean a True handicap, true Handicaps are nearly always solidly run, Lightweights try to make the good horses carry their weight, which can make it better for the good horses as Luck plays a much smaller role in Victory, Handicaps are significantly fairer despite large fields, they don't pack up so much
As I was saying Surprise Baby is an exception to the rule, the last one similar was Takeover Target and that was about 15 years and a million horses ago and 20 years before Takeover Target for Vo Rogue,
Like punters who think Gelding Improves all Horses based on a couple of horses in the last 50 years who improved......they are exceptions you can't make them the rule......When in that period there have probably been in excess of a Million Gelding operations with Zero Improvement......no scientific experiment would be accepted on that kind of anecdotal data and yet in Horse racing Punters buy it.....is it any wonder that they get away with selling the Melbourne Cup??(The very soul of Horse racing)