2020-21 3YO Crop High Standard? - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

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2020-21 3YO Crop High Standard? - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: 2020-21 3YO Crop High Standard?  (Read 1149 times)

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Offline PoisonPen7

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O.P. « 2020-Aug-16, 01:49 AM »
We had an equivalent thread last year.

Thought I'd start one up for this year.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-16, 02:04 AM Reply #1 »
I have always followed the 3yo races with great interest.

With the tendency toward Group races being set weights races with a few SWP races thrown in I think it is much easier to do the form. And the challenge is to pick the improvong horses who have come back as 3yos.

Today saw the first serious races for 3yos with the Vain and Quezette in Melbourne and the Up And Coming in Sydney.


In the Vain Our Playboy resumed with a dominant win. He was 3 deep (not that it matters much over the Caulfield 1100m as they only go around 1 turn) and he has now won 3 from 5.

Definitely one to follow as he looks like he has come up a better horse. By the late Sebring (Amphitrite, Criterion, Dissident, Egg Tart, Nettoyer) he is the first foal to race for Mischief Night (Shamardal).

Dam of Mischief Night November Flight won the G3 Millie Fox and is a half sister to Pierata, one of the top rated sprinters in recent years.

Hydro Star ran on well from the back but want to see more than that.

In the Quezette Bella Nipotina broke her maiden status with a strong win. Her best form as a 2yo was in those Inglis races where she ran 2nd twice. She looks to have come back a better horse.

Dam related to a couple of stakes winners and Bella Nipotina becomes the second stakes winner for Pride Of Dubai


In the Up And Coming North Pacific bolted in by 5.3 lengths in a meeting marred by overnight rain and a tendency to finish out wide. Impressive win nonetheless.


In Brisbane the filly Kisukano romped in and definitely has a touch of class about her.

In the colts race Acrobatic upset the more fancied runners but thought the filly was the horse to follow.


Over in Adelaide Tony McEvoy's filly Celestine is now unbeaten after two runs.


Our Playboy and North Pacific the horses to follow. Kisukano going well.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-16, 05:35 AM Reply #2 »
Slipper winner Farnan never out of second gear in an open class Group trial on Friday at Kenso. Most impressive.

3rd placegetter in the Slipper Mamaragan was ridden out a bit more but looks to have wins in store

https://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2020Aug14&VenueCode=MzEyOTA1Ng==&RaceNumber=1&MeetingCategory=Trial&VideoFileType=FullReplay

Prague won the next trial beating dual G1 winning mare Con Te Partriro

Reisling winner Dame Giselle was scrubbed up a little to run third in the other trial.


Farnan is second favourite behind North Pacific in the Golden Rose markets (NP is now favourite for the Caulfield Guineas as well). One of my tips for Spring stardom Rothfire is 3rd favourite for the Rose.

Farnan is on the 3rd line of betting for The Everest.

Kisukano is on the third line of betting for the Flight.

Mamargan is on the second line of betting for the Spring Champion.


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-17, 12:16 AM Reply #3 »
Actually there are some 3YO in The West that deserve comment.

The unbeaten filly Clairvoyance trained by Darren McAullife won by a space again yesterday having won by a space previously.

It beat Keep Your Feet who ran into another good 3yo Queen Brown  from the Morton stable.

Online Brian Mc

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« 2020-Aug-17, 07:40 AM Reply #4 »
Anders ran well Saturday week back.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-17, 08:51 AM Reply #5 »
Anders ran well Saturday week back.

Thanks Brian. Should have remembered that one.

Am going to keep a rating sheet on the 3yos (will see how long that lasts  :shy: )

Open 3YO = 56 Syd and Mel, 55 other states
Listed - add 1 kg to open class
G3 - Add 2kg to pen class
G2 - add 3 kg to open class
G1 - add 4 kg to open class

Deduct 1 kg for fillies
Add 1 or 2 kg for dominant wins or "very" dominant wins
Deduct 1 kg for extremely Heavy tracks

Horse Rating Adj Net Rating Comments Sire
Our Playboy 58 1 59 Dominant win G3 Vain Stks Sebring
North Pacific 58 1 59 Very dominant win G3 Up And Coming – Heavy 10 Brazen Beau
Anders 57 1 58 Very dominant win Listed Rosebud – Heavy 9 Not A Single Doubt
Bella Nipotina 56
56 G3 Quezette Pride Of Dubai
Acrobat 56
56 OPEN 3yo C&G Brisbane Snitzel
Kisukano 54 2 56 Very dominant win OPEN 3yo F Brisbane Bel Esprit
Celestine 54
54 OPEN 3yo SA Nicconi
Clairvoyance 54 2 56 Very dominant win OPEN 3yo WA Nostradamus
Queen Brown 53
53 OPEN 3yo WA Patronize

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-17, 08:54 AM Reply #6 »
Actually Celestine in SA was a BM 66 - so will take her out until (or if) she wins at Open class 3yo

Horse Rating Adj Net Rating Comments Sire
Our Playboy 58 1 59 Dominant win G3 Vain Stks Sebring
North Pacific 58 1 59 Very dominant win G3 Up And Coming – Heavy 10 Brazen Beau
Anders 57 1 58 Very dominant win Listed Rosebud – Heavy 9 Not A Single Doubt
Bella Nipotina 56
56 G3 Quezette Pride Of Dubai
Acrobat 56
56 OPEN 3yo C&G Brisbane Snitzel
Kisukano 54 2 56 Very dominant win OPEN 3yo F Brisbane Bel Esprit
Clairvoyance 54 2 56 Very dominant win OPEN 3yo WA Nostradamus
Queen Brown 53
53 OPEN 3yo WA Patronize

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Aug-17, 01:33 PM Reply #7 »
There’s about 30 unracred 3yos trialling at Rosehill tomorrow. It’ll be very interesting to see what comes out of that lot

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Aug-17, 01:35 PM Reply #8 »
I know she’s probably in the B grade lot but Bella Nipotina was very impressive on Saturday

Offline Gintara

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« 2020-Aug-17, 02:46 PM Reply #9 »
Actually there are some 3YO in The West that deserve comment.

The unbeaten filly Clairvoyance trained by Darren McAullife won by a space again yesterday having won by a space previously.



Going for a spell mentioned in this story courtesy of racenet https://www.racenet.com.au/news/one-wa-raider-won-t-make-memsie-stakes-20200817

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-19, 02:36 AM Reply #10 »
15 trials at Rosehill this morning. Of the 3 year olds:

The unbeaten 3yo So You Think colt Peltzer looked ready for a first up win in his trial, one of the fastest of the day.

The unbeaten Group 3 winner Doubtland also ran a nice race in this trial doing his best work at the end.

https://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2020Aug18&VenueCode=MTUzODM5Mg==&RaceNumber=9&MeetingCategory=Trial&VideoFileType=Last400m

The unraced Waller filly Iconically appeared to win her trial with her head on her chest. She is by Zoustar.

https://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2020Aug18&VenueCode=MTUzODM5Mg==&RaceNumber=11&MeetingCategory=Trial&VideoFileType=Last400m

Malkovich won by 6.3 lengths. Only had the one start when ran into Dame Giselle in a million dollar Inglis race.

Close To Me hasn't done a lot on the track in 3 starts and also ran into Dame Giselle (twice) but was one of the best finishers on the day winning her trial. Might be an improver as a 3yo. Team Snowden.

Gary Moore's unraced Deep Field 3yo Lucky To Win won impressively by 4.5 lengths.


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-19, 02:54 AM Reply #11 »
Ben Asgari's 3yo Spring horses to follow from racing.com

SMOKY OF THE SPRING

Jenni's Rainbow - This daughter of More Than Ready has only had the one start, which she won on the synthetic track at Racing.com Park Pakenham. After settling last of eight, she reeled off the fastest closing sectionals of the race from the 800-metre mark to win in a time more than six lengths faster than the class average for the track and distance. The most impressive part of the victory though was she only got clear galloping room and then balanced at the 200-metre mark yet still ran the fastest last 800/200-metre sectionals of the meeting and won by three lengths going away from her rivals. Things are only going to get significantly harder from here but if she can translate that synthetic-track form to turf then it won't surprise at all if she measures up in much better races. She might be too brilliant and better suited over sprinting distances, but she does hold a nomination for the Thousand Guineas.

Roughie - Flying Award

There's a just a hint of Flying Award's sire Shamus Award about this three-year-old. He was unlucky not to win a very strong maiden on debut, beat himself in a farcically slowly run race at Sandown at his second start and then overcame missing the start to win the Anzac Stakes at Flemington before heading to the paddock. At this early stage he looks one of the better chances heading towards the Caulfield Guineas and in a year without any standout weight-for-age stars and potentially no internationals, it could be a great Cox Plate for an emerging three-year-old.


https://www.racing.com/news/2020-08-18/ben-asgaris-spring-horses-to-follow-beasy

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Aug-21, 06:01 PM Reply #12 »
Jenni was very impressive on that artificial crap. Tomorrow may tell us more

Flying award may be this seasons  Taras Bulba  :lol:

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Aug-21, 06:13 PM Reply #13 »

Flying award may be this seasons  Taras Bulba  :lol:

What, he's going to be trained by TJ?

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Aug-21, 06:15 PM Reply #14 »
  :lol:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-22, 04:39 AM Reply #15 »
Jenni was very impressive on that artificial crap. Tomorrow may tell us more

Flying award may be this seasons  Taras Bulba  :lol:

Both in today at the Valley.

Can't come at Jenni's Rainbow at the 2-1 - there is a bit of black type form there in the race and would like to see her do something in city grade before committing at that price.

Only 6 horses in Flying Award's race but very good quality 3YO race. No value at $3.10

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-22, 04:45 AM Reply #16 »
Pretty good field in the Silver Shadow.

I could find an excuse to have 1-5 + 9 and 10.

Dame Giselle looks like it will be ready to go well first up. Hard to tell what might have improved though with a spell into their 3YO year.

I find these races best to stay out of and observe.

Online Brian Mc

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« 2020-Aug-24, 07:58 AM Reply #17 »
Good effort by Dame Giselle.  Thermosphere was making ground on her over the finishing stages and may have the wood on her in the later Darley Princess races over longer distances.

We now know that Dirty Thoughts can handle heavy tracks.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-25, 02:25 PM Reply #18 »
Horse Rating Adj Net Rating Comments Sire
North Pacific 58 1 59 Very dominant win G3 Up And Coming – Heavy 10 Brazen Beau
Our Playboy 58 1 59 Dominant win G3 Vain Stks Sebring
Anders 57 1 58 Very dominant win Listed Rosebud – Heavy 9 Not A Single Doubt
Dame Giselle 57 1 58 Dominant quinella G2 Silver Shadow I Am Invincible
Acrobat 56
56 OPEN 3yo C&G Brisbane Snitzel
Bella Nipotina 56
56 G3 Quezette Pride Of Dubai
Clairvoyance 54 2 56 Very dominant win OPEN 3yo WA Nostradamus
Dirty Thoughts 54
54 OPEN 3yo MV Heavy Track So You Think
Kisukano 54 2 56 Very dominant win OPEN 3yo F Brisbane Bel Esprit
Eelloh 53 2.5 55.5 OPEN 3YO Hcp Bris Better Than Ready
Madam Torio 53
53 Open 3YO SWP WA I'm All The Talk
Queen Brown 53
53 OPEN 3yo WA Patronize

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-25, 02:54 PM Reply #19 »

The unraced Waller filly Iconically appeared to win her trial with her head on her chest. She is by Zoustar.

https://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2020Aug18&VenueCode=MTUzODM5Mg==&RaceNumber=11&MeetingCategory=Trial&VideoFileType=Last400m

Malkovich won by 6.3 lengths. Only had the one start when ran into Dame Giselle in a million dollar Inglis race.


Both go around in the 2nd race at Kenso tomorrow.

Malkovich $2.70 and Iconically $5.50 eq 2nd fave so bookies are on to them.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-30, 09:17 PM Reply #20 »
Horse Rating Adj Net Rating Comments Sire
Anders 58 3 61 G3 San Domenico very dominant win Not A Single Doubt
North Pacific 58 1 59 Very dominant win G3 Up And Coming – Heavy 10 Brazen Beau
Our Playboy 58 1 59 Dominant win G3 Vain Stks Sebring
Immortal Love 58 1 59 Good win G3 McNeil large field Snitzel
Dame Giselle 57 1 58 Dominant quinella G2 Silver Shadow I Am Invincible
Acrobat 56
56 OPEN 3yo C&G Brisbane Snitzel
Bella Nipotina 56
56 G3 Quezette Pride Of Dubai
Clairvoyance 54 2 56 Very dominant win OPEN 3yo WA Nostradamus
Kisukano 54 2 56 Very dominant win OPEN 3yo F Brisbane Bel Esprit
Eelloh 53 2.5 55.5 OPEN 3YO Hcp Bris Better Than Ready
Chili Is Hot 55
55 OPEN 3yo WA Gingerbread Man
Dirty Thoughts 54
54 OPEN 3yo MV Heavy Track So You Think
Madam Torio 53
53 Open 3YO SWP WA I'm All The Talk
Queen Brown 53
53 OPEN 3yo WA Patronize

Anders sensational win in the San Domenico has shot him to the top of the ratings. Peltzer is no slouch and was made look 2nd rate. Mamaragan was finishing very nicely and looks like he might be better as the races get longer. Interest has been expressed in Anders for an Everest slot and he is now into $12.

In Melbourne the three placegetters in the McNeil all look like they are all top class and I think that race will be a good guide to the Spring. Immortal Love is still unbeaten and Flying Award and Tagaloa were not disgraced.

In Brisbane our two rated horses clashed and the ratings pretty much held up. Kisukano held Acrobatic under hard riding. Came away with the impression she will not want further than 1200m.


Still waiting for a few potential stars to resume.

Farnan has looked awesome in his two trials. Still not due to resume until Sept 12th in the Run To The Rose.

Dual G1 winner King's Legacy was also in Farnan's latest trial and looking for him in races like the Guineas and Derby.

Rothfire galloped between races at Eagle Farm on Saturday and he is scheduled to clash with Farnan in the Run To The Rose. He is also in the market for The Everest.


Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Aug-30, 10:05 PM Reply #21 »
Glennfidich was a great run first up in the Memsie yesterday. Not sure where they aim the horse other than the Guineas as his main aim.

Online Brian Mc

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« 2020-Aug-31, 07:35 AM Reply #22 »
It will be interesting to see what path Anders takes.  If he were mine (and it is quite obvious that he is not) the plan would be the Moir and the Collmore. I fear that his connections will be seduced to the Everest where he may well lead Nature Strip for part of the race but,in open compan, the 1200m will find him out.

Online Antitab#

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« 2020-Aug-31, 07:53 AM Reply #23 »
Given that his owners have a spot on the Everest Anders would $1.01 to go that path

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Sep-01, 02:32 PM Reply #24 »
WON’T BE SEEING YOU SOON

Promising filly See You Soon has run her last race after she again refused to be loaded into the barriers at the Rosehill Gardens trials session on Monday morning.

Trainer Jean Dubois said See You Soon is too valuable to risk and would be retired to stud, just in time for this spring breeding season.


https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/superracing/nsw-racing/concorde-stakes-nature-strip-and-gytrash-clash-in-the-everest-prelude/


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