Racehorse TALK

Thoroughbred Racing Talk => Racing Talk => Topic started by: wily ole dog on 2008-Dec-27, 08:56 AM

Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: wily ole dog on 2008-Dec-27, 08:56 AM
I going back to my old system of not backing horses drawn wide.
Anyone else agree?

I know stats will show horses can win from out wide but finding the one horse who gets a good run from the 5 who draw wide is a guessing game
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: Gintara on 2008-Dec-27, 09:07 AM
I don't think it can be that simple Wily.

You have to take into account the length of the race and also where the start is, ie is there 800m to the first bend or do they jump straight onto a bend.

I also take into account the racing pattern of the horse, does it lead anyway and will cross? is it a back marker and drop straight out thus negating the barrier draw.

I guess all this points out is there can't be any hard and fast rules  :unsu
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: Bundy on 2008-Dec-27, 09:09 AM
Barrier Bets Wins W%
--- ------------- ---- -----
1 140121 5644 11
2 140121 5134 10
3 140121 5304 10
4 140071 4914 10
5 139421 3823 9
6 136541 3763 10
7 130431 2473 9
8 119781 1093 9
9 10621 8542 8
10 9026 6852 7
11 7081 5061 7
12 5271 3941 7
13 3275 202 6
14 2039 136 6
15 669 31 4
16 367 22 5
17 53 5 9
18 30 2 6
19 10 0 0
20 6 0 0
21 1 0 0
22 1 0 0

These are the stats for about 99% of races run this calendar year.

Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: Bundy on 2008-Dec-27, 09:30 AM
Barrier Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf W% WPOT
--- ------------ ---- ------- ------- -------- ---- ------
1 2376 350 237600 181934 -55666 14 -23.4
2 2389 327 238900 166040 -72860 13 -30.5
3 2391 326 239100 192120 -46980 13 -19.6
4 2351 331 235100 198550 -36550 14 -15.5
5 2349 269 234900 157140 -77760 11 -33.1
6 2311 294 231100 188240 -42860 12 -18.5
7 2184 274 218400 178400 -40000 12 -18.3
8 1958 216 195800 138740 -57060 11 -29.1
9 1741 175 174100 131120 -42980 10 -24.7
10 1430 156 143000 121300 -21700 10 -15.2
11 1137 103 113700 87820 -25880 9 -22.8
12 842 83 84200 77080 -7120 9 -8.5
13 504 55 50400 63710 13310 10 26.4
14 307 34 30700 45300 14600 11 47.6
15 99 6 9900 5270 -4630 6 -46.8
16 54 3 5400 8290 2890 5 53.5
17 11 2 1100 7540 6440 18 585.5
18 5 0 500 0 -500 0 -100
19 3 0 300 0 -300 0 -100
22 1 0 100 0 -100 0 -100

Just for interest...runners by barrier that won their prvious start...for 100 outlay.

Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: dubbledee on 2008-Dec-27, 09:40 AM
Only a fool would argue against the proposition that barriers are important in determining the outcomes of races.

As GT has said there are a stack of caveats that must be considered, e.g. the distance, the starting point at the track in question, and the condition of the track, the field size, the rail position.

Lots of sites, publications, etc, put up barrier stats.  But in the main they're not worth the space they occupy (because they don't deal with the points above).

The size of the field is typically not taken into account.  I mean, barrier 10 obviously can't win if it's not occupied.  It's a mammoth exercise though, to produce tables that DO mean something.

A reasonable simple statistic that can now be calculated with the aid of a computer is the performance of the inside half of the stalls relative to the outside half.

Say it's a 10 horse race at the 1810 at EF ...total the finishing positions of the horses drawn 1-5, and compare it with that of the horses drawn 6-10.  If the barriers have no influence, the scores should be approximately equal at around 27.

Over time you'll then build up a profile for the particularly starting point (by adding up the inside totals and outside totals).  No problems with odd-numbered field sizes (e.g. 11).  You either toss them out - it won't alter the end result - or put half the score to both sides.

You might end up over time for the 1810 at EF with a score of 55 vs 45.  It's then up to you to dedcide on the significance of the difference.

Definitely worth doing if someone has the results, and computer skills.

On stuff I've done years ago, you'll be surprised at the results with big fields at the majority of barrier starts in Brisbane.  The outside barriers are nowhere near the problem that most of us believe.
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: arakaan on 2008-Dec-27, 09:43 AM
whether a barrier is significant or not depends on the horse and the other horses in the race more than the barrier itself.

For example my best bet last sat was a horse draw wide at the 1200m at the Gold Coast. Normally a bad move but I knew it had enough early toe to cross easily. Lead comfortably after 200 and bolted in.

Do you then rule out a horse with no speed drawn wide in a race you think will be truely run?

not as simple as just saying wider than 7 never bet.
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: arakaan on 2008-Dec-27, 09:52 AM
also a big point in favour of backing horses drawn wide in the right type of race is you will invariably be getting significant overs to it's true price. ;)

as shown by bundy's stats
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: manikato1 on 2008-Dec-27, 01:17 PM
I tend to operate on a slightly different theory, that is I find back markers from wide barriers to be, if not a plus, then at least not a negative, whereas back markers from inside barriers I find to be a big negative.  I find that backmarkers need space and time to warm up, and that is easier to do when already out wide, rather than trying to find room, which beats lots of good get back horses.
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: wily ole dog on 2008-Dec-27, 02:45 PM
All good points fellas.
I certainly agree that it makes no difference to a backmarker and there are those that hate racing inside others but it takes a heap of time or study to suss all of that out.

I remember putting a line through Brew in the melbourne cup, he drew 21 but found the fence after 100M :mad:

The horses drawn 2 places inside him were 3 & 4 wide for the trip..........pure luck on the day figuring which widely drawn horse will get the run.

I backed Mr Aristos yesterday after cleaning up on him the start before where he drew barrier 4, from memory. he box seated that day and killed them.

Yesterday he drew wide and had to settle 10 lengths off the lead and had no hope. I convinced myself that barriers don't matter and lost a bundle on him. The barrier certainly did matter.  :mad:

Ditto Atapi in NZ. Big field, wide marble he had to got back to last. From 4 he would have possied up mid field and won
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2008-Dec-27, 02:57 PM
The other consideration is the quality and experience of the jock.
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: Gintara on 2008-Dec-27, 05:11 PM
Quote from: dubbledee on 2008-Dec-27, 09:40  AM
Only a fool would argue against the proposition that barriers are important in determining the outcomes of races.

As GT has said there are a stack of caveats that must be considered, e.g. the distance, the starting point at the track in question, and the condition of the track, the field size, the rail position.



DD - you forgot along with rail position, the track bias that can occur cause of it  ;)
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: OldLarsy on 2008-Dec-27, 06:18 PM
Since when has there been 7 off the front at Glode Derby?
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: arakaan on 2008-Dec-27, 08:03 PM
about 3-4 months at least
Title: Barrier draw significance
Post by: OldLarsy on 2008-Dec-27, 09:04 PM
Shows how much I bet there, can't back a winner with that pain in the arse voice of Jim Jakes calling.