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Betfair - Quo Vadis - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Betfair - Quo Vadis  (Read 28513 times)

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Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Sep-08, 09:18 PM Reply #100 »


Australian punters will need more help to be betting on HK races

The readily available 'tips' were on the money in a sense -- we need more help to get familiar with a new venue.

It does make sense to be very wary of the top jockeys -- moira, purton, shinn, + a few et als -- not riding for fun!

It was disappointing that Racenet did not provide their usual 'top tips' and 'runner assessments' today.

                                      ...... is pressure being brought to bear with the entry of 6%-Betfair?

The form-guide Racenet does provide may also be more useful if the previous SP's of runners were disclosed routinely.

....... early in the season perhaps but there do seem to be too-many starters for a fair race ... it does not make sense to bet 'exotics' bar quadrellas ............. rather just select likely winners and hope you get a result in a multi.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Sep-09, 08:23 PM Reply #101 »


HK racing will not save Betfair  -- it is HK racing that needs saving

                                 ....reflecting on last night, HK racing is a mix of  'piked' in Perth and rough outcomes from 'inflated fields' in Melbourne.

Contrary to suggestions that HK racing rulers scathingly rebuked Betfair for offering HK markets  -- it is more likely that HK's racing rulers are looking to be a global player and Betfair will be an essential and welcome entrant.

..... alas it will not work out well for either unless and until HK racing stops putting land-mine runners in its races and ensures the quality of the product presented.

RVL is beyond redemption with 'Miles Going Nowhere'.

....... presently, the Texas Tavern is in Sydney ........ that's where the action is.



Online Gintara

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« 2019-Sep-09, 09:14 PM Reply #102 »

Australian punters will need more help to be betting on HK races

The readily available 'tips' were on the money in a sense -- we need more help to get familiar with a new venue.

It does make sense to be very wary of the top jockeys -- moira, purton, shinn, + a few et als -- not riding for fun!

It was disappointing that Racenet did not provide their usual 'top tips' and 'runner assessments' today.

                                      ...... is pressure being brought to bear with the entry of 6%-Betfair?

The form-guide Racenet does provide may also be more useful if the previous SP's of runners were disclosed routinely.

....... early in the season perhaps but there do seem to be too-many starters for a fair race ... it does not make sense to bet 'exotics' bar quadrellas ............. rather just select likely winners and hope you get a result in a multi.

Pete - email Racenet with your suggestions as they are pretty receptive to comments.

The Betfair betting guide is instructive

......... looking at the betting sites, how is the 'track' disclosed as between 'turf', all-weather' and 'dirt etc -- please

I wish it was shown too as it's frustrating to do the form then realise it's on the all weather  :shy: The HKJC seems to be the only form guide that routinely shows it.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Sep-09, 10:07 PM Reply #103 »


I always read Racenet -- Australia's best racinng site

............ any idea that Racenet would not monitor this 'forum' beyond belief.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Sep-09, 10:14 PM Reply #104 »

EXCLUSIVE: David Hayes set to return to Hong Kong

............... this adds credibility to the idea that HK racing's rulers are looking to run the racing world!

Proper product quality control will see them succeed

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-06, 09:34 PM Reply #105 »


HONG KONG & BETFAIR -- have the Australian-racing minders pulled the rug?

........... the new HK season may be open but it seems that Racenet and Punters.com have got a go-slow message.

Today the 'top 4 tips' and 'summary form comments' were missing from Racenet's contribution and the 'HK preview' assessment was apparently not published on PDC.

While my affection for HK racing is waning in the light of 'inflated fields' also corrupting their races ....... it is a real pity that Australian racing administrators cannot reach an accommodation with a business model that almost guarantees integrity by ensuring that a bet 'to win' is matched by a bet 'to lay' .

.... one likely reality is that the rort-funding of far-too-much Australian racing would not endure if punters were given a fair go................ and that would be best, overall, for the Australian communiry.

One converse , of course, is that Australian racing, offering a fair-go in association with a more aggressive Betfair,  would be well placed to take pole-position globally.

First-mover advantage is a wondrous thing.






Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-07, 06:31 PM Reply #106 »


Apologies  -- I looked but did not see

......................and the 'HK preview' assessment was [apparently not] published on PDC.

Online jfc

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« 2019-Nov-05, 06:58 PM Reply #107 »
Moving to the intended thread for Betfair issues.


My average Lay Odds next to BSP for the Cup.

Clearly something happened very, very late.

8.13 13.16 Vow And Declare
31.34 28.3 Master Of Reality
12.41 24 Prince Of Arran
14.7 16 Il Paradiso

1st 23  Vow And Declare (21) Craig Williams | Danny O'brien | 52kg 8.13 4.18 11.7-30.5%
2nd 3  Master Of Reality (1) Frankie Dettori | Joseph O'brien | 55.5kg 31.34 9.35 25.7+21.9%
3rd 12  Prince Of Arran (8) Michael Walker | Charlie Fellowes | 54kg 12.41 5.91 6.7-25.7%
4th 20  Il Paradiso (17) W M Lordan | A P O'brien | 52.5kg 14.7 6.69 19.6-25.0%
- 1  Cross Counter (5) William Buick | C Appleby | 57.5kg 9.69 5.27 15.4-37.1%
- 2  Mer De Glace (2) Damian Lane | H Shimizu | 56kg 10.68 4.29 9.8+9.0%
- 4  Mirage Dancer (13) Ben Melham | Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | 55.5kg 8520.2640.7+108.8%
- 5  Southern France (14) Mark Zahra | Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | 55.5kg 30.599.1730+2.0%
- 6  Hunting Horn (11) J A Heffernan | A P O'brien | 55kg 68.562250.1+36.8%
- 7  Latrobe (22) James Mcdonald | Joseph O'brien | 55kg 23.321128.4-17.9%
- 8  Mustajeer (6) Damien Oliver | Kris Lees | 55kg 19.655.8515.6+26.0%
- 9  Rostropovich (12) Dwayne Dunn | D & B Hayes & T Dabernig | 55kg 5016.3652.7-5.1%
- 10  Twilight Payment (19) Hugh Bowman | Joseph O'brien | 55kg 40.0621.641.4-3.2%
- 11  Finche (4) Kerrin Mcevoy | Chris Waller | 54kg 8.393.47.7+9.0%
- 13  Raymond Tusk (3) J P Spencer | Richard Hannon Jr | 54kg 14.639.0526.3-44.4%
- 14  Downdraft (15) J Allen | Joseph O'brien | 53.5kg 25.319.229-12.7%
- 15  Magic Wand (24) Ryan Moore | A P O'brien | 53.5kg 30.212.0433.4-9.6%
- 16  Neufbosc (23) Luke Nolen | D & B Hayes & T Dabernig | 53.5kg 291.2351.380.6+261.3%
- 17  Sound (10) James Winks | Michael Moroney | 53.5kg 161.531.9966.3+143.6%
- 18  Surprise Baby (20) Jordan Childs | Paul Preusker | 53.5kg 12.934.712.5+3.4%
- 19  Constantinople (7) Joao Moreira | D & B Hayes & T Dabernig | 52.5kg 8.043.449.5-15.4%
- 21  Steel Prince (16) Brett Prebble | Anthony Freedman | 52.5kg 75.4219.6365.2+15.7%
- 22  The Chosen One (18) Tim Clark | Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman | 52kg 38.7513.0234.7+11.7%
- 24  Youngstar (9) Tommy Berry | Chris Waller | 52kg 36.813.2138.3-3.9%

Online jfc

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« 2019-Nov-06, 08:03 AM Reply #108 »
88K Melbourne Cup Day
309K Derby Day

If Betfair excludes fiascos like the Cup BSP from its supplied data their summaries look so much more attractive.

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices

Online jfc

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« 2019-Nov-07, 01:42 PM Reply #109 »
they would say that


Online jfc

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« 2019-Nov-07, 01:51 PM Reply #110 »
The absence of a volume spike around the BSP fuels the controversy further.


Online jfc

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« 2019-Nov-09, 05:04 AM Reply #111 »
Fascinating analysis about that BSP fiasco.

I tried following up the absence of historical data and Betfair told me it will available on the 10th!

I am more than a little sceptical about that considering other recent days look complete, and since all that data is available at the time of BSP calculation, the carrier pigeon method of migrating to history is questionable.


Online jfc

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« 2019-Nov-11, 12:05 PM Reply #112 »
The Betfair ignoramu bullcloacated me about the historical data.

In fact the Melbourne Cup data is stored in the file dated Wednesday.

Because file dates are based on GMT (or whatever).

The strangely named MORNINGTRADEDVOL is actually greater than PPTRADEDVOL.

My bet is that BSP settlement is the difference between the two.

And the biggest values all corresponded with low prices.

So the BSP calculations appear to simply be a consequence of excess BSP bets.

Interestingly the MC Winning BSP underperformed Best Tote for at least the last 4 years!


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