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Offline Bubbasmith

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O.P. « 2009-Jan-26, 09:15 AM »
Tabcorp has announced a new bet type called "Big Six " and it will begin next Saturday. To win a punter must select the winner of six races nominated by the TAB, however punters who unlucky enough to "just miss out " and pick 5 of the 6 winners a supplementary dividend will be declared from 10 % of the dividend pool.

In this morning's Herald Sun racing journalist, Adrian Dunn, naively heads his column with " Punters to hit tote for six" whereas, in reality, it should be " Tote to hit punters for six "

A. Initially in a six week "promotional launch" the takeout will be 6% , however, once punters are sucked in and the bet type is up and running the takeout will be 25 % , that's right 1/4 of the pool .

B. As part ot the marketing of this new bet Tabcorp has cleverly introduced this supplemenary dividend and as Dunn naively illustrates "for punters who perennialy pick three legs of the quaddie" they will not suffer the same frustration with the Big Six. If the average field size of each leg of this "Big Six" is say, 12 starters, by my calculation there will be 72 different ways punters can pick 5 out of 6 winners. With only 10% of the dividend pool distributed and with flexi betting available, I would not have to hang around in any queue waiting for a TAB agent to open his safe for my payout if I had a flexi 5% of the dividend of 1/72 of 10% of the dividend pool.
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-26, 09:22 AM by Bubbasmith »

Offline gratlog

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« 2009-Jan-26, 09:24 AM Reply #1 »
We had that up here when Russ Hinze was around and I remember one day Russ and myself went halves in one and went pretty close.

Not sure when it was scrapped , but I don't think it got much support.

Offline Authorized

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« 2009-Jan-26, 09:32 AM Reply #2 »
Why don't they try Hong Kongs favorite bet type*,  the Triple Trio ?

That is their favorite bet type isn't it ?

Offline dubbledee

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« 2009-Jan-26, 09:33 AM Reply #3 »
It was operating in the mid-late 80s.  Called Six Pick.

The day Robian Steel won the Stradbroke I was in one with a couple of mates.  Coming to the last we had a few going, including Constant Kingdom (fav at 5/2 with L Dittman) and Granville (33s with J Penza).   Granville was going for $126,000.  It was beaten half a head by CK.  I collected $2600 in total at the TAB with consolation divvies.  The TAB lady said "that's a nice win".  I nearly threw it back at her. :nowink:

Two things killed the Six Pick.

1. Pool was too small (considering the unit  of 50c from memory) to give a fair return in most cases.  Six horses all-up can result in a big number.

2. The obsession with giving consolation dividends.  It took away something like 25% of the pool.  Totally stupid.

With flexible betting options, it would be worth another try, IMO.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2009-Jan-26, 10:08 AM Reply #4 »
I might run a sweep on next year's Melbourne Cup.

I'll tell the prospective participants

"There are 24 horses and a ticket is $50, that makes $1200, from that I'll take out $300 for my efforts, and share $900 amongst the winners"


Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Jan-26, 10:18 AM Reply #5 »
I might run a sweep on next year's Melbourne Cup.

I'll tell the prospective participants

"There are 24 horses and a ticket is $50, that makes $1200, from that I'll take out $300 for my efforts, and share $900 amongst the winners"



Why don't you add $300 to make it $1500 for being a dick head   :biggrin:

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2009-Jan-26, 10:22 AM Reply #6 »
I wasn't being a "dick head" (sic).

I'm just showing how gullible we all are betting into these pools which have such massive take-outs.

If I tried what I suggested with non-punters, I'd be using my balls for door knockers.

praiseworthy

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« 2009-Jan-26, 10:25 AM Reply #7 »
bubba - if you had 5 winners and had a flexi you'd get multiple supplementary dividends, presuming you had multiple selections in the leg you missed  - i.e your scenario on only one supplementary dividend is correct if you'd had 'one out' in every leg - but then you'd get 100% of the supp dividend if you had a dollar on it.

pw

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Jan-26, 10:34 AM Reply #8 »
I wasn't being a "dick head" (sic).

I'm just showing how gullible we all are betting into these pools which have such massive take-outs.

If I tried what I suggested with non-punters, I'd be using my balls for door knockers.

Yeah I know Big G, was just hassling cause I can   :lol:

Offline monologue

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« 2009-Jan-26, 10:37 AM Reply #9 »
I've bumped this up from yesterday


Posts: 75
Send PM

   
      
Original Post Yesterday at 08:47 PM

LET FRED PICK A BIG6 FOR YOU!

Donít know what runners to pick? Let Fred pick your BIG6 for you. Fred bets are available in $10, $20 and $50 amounts. Fred bets will give you multiple selections in each leg and through Flexi betting, will give you a percentage of the full dividend:

   1. A $10 Fred gives you 2 selections in legs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 for a percentage of 15.62% of the full dividend.
   2. A $20 Fred gives you 3 selections in legs 1, 2 and 3; 2 selections in legs 4 and 5; and 1 selection in leg 6 for a percentage of 18.51% of the full dividend.
   3. A $50 Fred gives you 4 selections in legs 1 and 2; and 2 selections in legs 3, 4, 5 and 6 for a percentage of 19.53% of the full dividend.

 Fred 
 
  There you go.....you can even take a quickpick with Fred the horse picking your numbers for you.

  Should be a real goer this one. 

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2009-Jan-26, 11:18 AM Reply #10 »
PW

Most punters would bet flexis rather than $1 units. If a punter had one runner in his losing leg he would only get his  flexi % x 1/72 x 10% of dividend pool once , if on the the other hand , he had more than one horse in the losing leg he would then receive multiple dividends.

                   
                   

praiseworthy

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« 2009-Jan-26, 12:29 PM Reply #11 »
bubba - i think we've said exactly the same thing! but perhaps you worded it better than I did.

the 10% supplementary can be changed to another % - but too much more and it starts to minimise the major dividend pool too much

lets just wait and see what the first set of divvies are this weekend

Offline johnnysixpence

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« 2009-Jan-27, 05:06 AM Reply #12 »
with flexi betting, i really cant ever see a huge pool happening. The uk version (scoop 6) has a minimum unit of £2, so often rolls over (even the big syndicates cant cover everything). I think there is about £900k in the pool for next week, with a bonus fund of over £2million.

I like the idea of the bonus fund. It happens the week after the scoop 6 is won, the toughest race of the day is normally used, and the scoop 6 winner (or winners) have a single selection. If it wins, you win the bonus.

There is also a weekly place pool (an alternative to the consolation pool) where if you have 6 placegetters, you get the place pool.

There is also a new bet - the super 7. A bloke called Dave Nevison (probably the most well known pro gambler in the UK) had it all but won for about £200k last week. His selection in the last leg (he had the only live ticket) lead by about 20 lengths with 20 metres to go. the horse ducked sideways, the jock fell off, and the bet lost.......very tough.

Offline zeditave

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« 2009-Jan-28, 07:01 PM Reply #13 »
The place and bonus part of the Scoop6 are key parts of its success, as is the fact that all races are shown on live free-to-air TV. Bring it into more homes and suddenly the appeal widens. There's only room for one of the these pools in the country, so why not spread it out over more than one venue and get as many punters as possible involved?

Offline seal

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« 2009-Jan-28, 07:29 PM Reply #14 »
this is over 2 states this weekend - 3 melb / 3 syd - just hope metal bender is  one leg and WH will be one - there is 2 standouts- just got to narrow down the others or looking at about (10-12) ^  4   to take 4 fields
only approx $500 for 5% if syd has usual small fields - might start a syndicate

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Jan-29, 11:16 PM Reply #15 »
BIG 6 # 1
Sydney Races 4,5,6 Melbourne Races 6,7,8

BIG 6 # 2
Wentworth Park Dogs 4,5,6,7,8,9

BIG 6 # 3
Ballarat Trots 4,5,6,7,8,9

BET CALCULATOR
http://www.tabinfo.com.au/betcalculator/index.asp?bt=13


praiseworthy

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« 2009-Jan-30, 07:16 AM Reply #16 »
OL - Thats the schedule for the NSW tab - on the vic tab it's slightly different;

Harness - same, Greyhounds is the meadows races 4 to 9 and for gallops it's a 'straight' BIG6 - races 3 to 8 at flemington.
PW

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2009-Jan-30, 09:26 AM Reply #17 »
As Patrick Bartley writes in this morning's Age newspaper " amid all the blazing headlines for the much-vaunted Big 6, the silence from Tabcorp about guaranteeing a minimum pool was deafening. In fact if you snare the Big 6 tomorrow it won't be the intense heat that will knock you over...the frugal dividend will safely achieve that ".

Mind you, Bartley was writing about those getting the Big 6 not those multitude of punters who will receive the supplementary dividend... for those "fortunates" getting a flexi supplementary dividend the payout will not cover the price of a packet of PK's.

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2009-Jan-30, 09:59 AM Reply #18 »
Just had a look at Tabcorp's calculator for the Big 6. If I took 4x4x5x5x5x5 horses in each leg and I wanted to invest $100 I would get a 1% flexi bet. Assuming the total pool tomorrow is  $300,000 ( I am dreaming, however for this exercise I will use that size pool ) The total payout pool will  $282,000 ( until March = 6% deduction rate ) of which $28,200 will go those selecting 5/6 winners.  Assuming there are 12 runners in each leg of the Big 6 thus seventy two punters could pick 5/6 winners. For each dollar on each of those seventy two " winners  " the dividend will be 28,200/ 72 = $391.60 ( dividend  rounded down ), with my 1% x 5 ( I was "unlucky" in the leg I picked 5 runners ) I will receive 5% of $391.60 = $ 19.50 (rounded down again ).

I do not think this supplementay dividend concept will last that long before Tabcorp
scraps it and only pays out on only those selecting the full six pack.

praiseworthy

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« 2009-Jan-30, 10:03 AM Reply #19 »
well found bubba - of all the press on the new bet you've found the only negative piece - and lo and behold written in a form guide sponsored by a corporate bookie!

I say again - lets have a look at what the supp dividend pays after the event - whats a packet of PK - Around $1 ? So lets use a flexi of 10% of the div as a base (rare are those that take a bet to 1% of the dividend)- thus if the supp pays more than $10 you're wrong.



Offline Grega9430

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« 2009-Jan-30, 10:10 AM Reply #20 »
Each State Wagering Regulator should have a Minimum Pool rule for each Wagering Product (esp Big 6, Quaddies, First Fours etc)that goes along the lines of;

"for novelty bets and after accounting for betting commission the Product Provider shall ensure that at least 80% of the combinations taken by its customers has a 90% chance of returning a dividend at least equal to the odds of those combinations, the win odds of each horse shall be used for calculation purposes." or

"that 25% of the combinations possible have at least a 90% chance of returning a dividend at least equal ...."

Without rules such as this we could end up with the Innocents being slaughtered by the Jackpotters and the Totes as they were on Unitab when they went to a $1 unit for calculating First Four dividends.
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-30, 12:00 PM by Grega9430 »

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2009-Jan-30, 12:06 PM Reply #21 »
Praiseworthy

In my example,  to bet 10% flexi one would have to bet 1% ( $100 ) X 10 = $1,000 .How many punters are going to take 4x4x5x5x5x5 for 10% when it is going to cost them $1,000 ? Maybe you and I ,but Joe Blow, I do not think so !!!

As for " the only negative comment in the paper " in a paper sponsored by a corporate bookie. I could come back and say the only positive comments have come from Tabcorp lackeys, surely anyone promoting the Big 6 from Sky Channel , owned by Tabcorp, can be ignored.

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2009-Jan-30, 12:38 PM Reply #22 »
I do not want to prove a point, but to get a 10% flexi , as suggested by Praiseworthy is within the realm of most punters, a punter is limited by how many combinations he can take in each leg.eg 3x3x3x3x3x4 is a 10.29% flexi for a $100 outlay. If a punter get 5/6 winners they would only get the supplementary dividend 3 times if they missed in one of the first five legs and 4 times if they missed the last leg.
What do you think the reponse of a punter who invests $100, picks 5/6 winners and receives a miniscule return ,when the same punter, assuming he plays Lotto, will receive, in his mind, far more for second division in Lotto ? Remember we are dealing with "Tattslotto mentality " here not logic.

Like you Praiseworthy, I cannot wait to here punters' responses on Saturday night when the supplementary dividend is declared.

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Jan-30, 12:39 PM Reply #23 »
Anyone worth their salt should take no more than 3 per leg. Any more than that and it's obvious they're putting in a few rough ones and hoping for a big div.
3x3x3x3x3x3 for $50 is 6.86% that'll do me unless I can narrow it down on a few races.

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2009-Jan-30, 12:53 PM Reply #24 »
OL

Do not know about ' anyone worth their salt ' can limit their bets to 3 per race. Looking at Flemington tomorrow, (or is it Sunday ? ), you might be able to limit the Lightning Stakes to 2 selections but races 7 &  8 both have multiple runners listed prepost under 10/1, do not know whether they could be labelled "roughies " 


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