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Bill Benter / Allan Woods/ Zeljko Ranogajec - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

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Offline Entropy

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« 2020-Aug-24, 01:48 PM Reply #25 »
The Author of the above video also alludes to the MIT group in which Z had no involvement.
« Last Edit: 2020-Aug-26, 11:08 AM by Entropy »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-24, 03:55 PM Reply #26 »
What kind of Merc was it?

If you look at roulette table limits at online casinos, it is clear to see that they do not reach particularly high. While there are numerous tables with low limits, you will be hard pushed to find tables that exceed limits of $1000.

https://www.highlimits.com.au/guides/guide-to-the-high-limit-roulette-table-limits-that-you-can-find-at-online-casinos/

$1,000 on 27 Red - what did he walk up to the table after the chi-squared test and immediately it come up 3 times in a row? No losing bets. Didn't bounce into the 6 or 13 from time to time.

Other gamblers and the Casino management didn't notice that they were losing heaps on a single table? Didn't reduce the maximum bet?

Did anyone witness this? Are you sure they aren't making their money some other way and telling everyone that they are winning it on gambling for some unknown reason?

Something like Forex trading?

This idea of saying you are winning a lot of money from gambling proceeds is not new - not implying the subjects of this thread are involved in anything illegal but just to demonstrate the concept of telling people you are a winning gambler:

Discharged from bankruptcy in 1975, Trimbole was fined $1400 in 1978 for failing to file tax returns in 1975-77 and for other tax offences. It was his only conviction. His recent immense wealth could not be disguised. He claimed to be a successful punter, while skilfully laundering money through gambling.

http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/trimbole-robert-15555



Offline pwa54

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« 2020-Aug-24, 05:07 PM Reply #27 »
As a local Tasmanian at the time, I heard card-counting was the source of their edge over Wrest Point rather than roulette.

Online fours

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« 2020-Aug-24, 06:21 PM Reply #28 »
Variance.....

People are forgetting that even with a slight bias many hours would be spent at the wheel to make any dollars.

It would be extremely boring work for a high IQ person.

Friend of mine picked up a Merc for 2 grand.....

Fours


Offline Entropy

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« 2020-Aug-24, 07:29 PM Reply #29 »
I remember it was new and black... not exactly a car buff here.
« Last Edit: 2020-Aug-26, 11:09 AM by Entropy »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-24, 08:32 PM Reply #30 »
As a local Tasmanian at the time, I heard card-counting was the source of their edge over Wrest Point rather than roulette.

I would think you are closer to the mark pwa. Card counting far more likely.

In fact there are a few posts on forums suggesting that the max bet at Star City in the 36 number section is $100. Sure. It would be higher in the high rollers room.

As fours says, it would take an age to win a fortune on a roulette table, even if that table had bias on it.

Some of the stories about Z and DW are starting to sound apocryphal. There are people even suggesting they win on poker machines FFS.

Card counting and chasing Keno jackpots when the jackpot rises to a level where the expected payout exceeds 100% are plausible. And the insidiously unfair parimutuel pool rebates.

But roulette and poker machines  :what:

What next? Stories of Z and DW crunching Scratchie jackpots?

Offline innerwiz

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« 2020-Aug-25, 01:00 PM Reply #31 »
Good response Entropy.  Appreciate your posts.

Offline Entropy

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« 2020-Aug-26, 11:13 AM Reply #32 »
I'm sorry if it upset you.
Deleted my posts, bye.

Online fours

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« 2020-Aug-26, 11:26 AM Reply #33 »
Entropy,

Who was upset? Certainly not I.

I value your posts as well.

Fours

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-26, 12:05 PM Reply #34 »
Entropy,

Who was upset? Certainly not I.

I value your posts as well.

Fours

Hope we didn't strike a nerve.

You play the odds you are always going to have a lean run from time to time. It is how it works unfortunately.

I certainly don't mean to upset anyone.

Offline innerwiz

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« 2020-Aug-26, 12:34 PM Reply #35 »
Entropy, mate there was nothing sarcastic about my post.  Truly enjoy reading yours.

Offline Entropy

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« 2020-Aug-26, 02:30 PM Reply #36 »
Au contraire PP7 au contraire....

Moderator! delete my account when possible.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-26, 03:46 PM Reply #37 »
Au contraire PP7 au contraire....

Moderator! delete my account when possible.

A  bit thinned skinned aren't we  :what:

Upset because I dared to state that we always hear winning stories and never the losing stories about gamblers.

You can delete your own account. Your a smart man. I'm sure you can work it out.

Online fours

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« 2020-Aug-26, 03:56 PM Reply #38 »
Hmmmmm,

Main point I was trying to make was that card counting and roulette, even if successful are pretty damn boring.

Sure the spoils can be used in interesting ways.

However a high IQ person would probably enjoy making that same money in a non smoke filled environment where they let you see the sky and clocks a whole lot more. On top of that you may also be contributing to society in a big way at the same time.

Having said that I acknowledge Entropy as someone I can discuss racing with on a good level; a rare level in fact.

Fours
ps for the record my friends merc was a silver 30 year old model but still far more impresive than any new Japanese model 5 times the price back then.

Online Antitab#

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« 2020-Aug-26, 10:44 PM Reply #39 »
Hmmmmm,

Main point I was trying to make was that card counting and roulette, even if successful are pretty damn boring.
 

Less boring than digging a ditch and the rate of tax is much better.

Offline jfc

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« 2020-Aug-28, 05:54 PM Reply #40 »
I would think you are closer to the mark pwa. Card counting far more likely.

In fact there are a few posts on forums suggesting that the max bet at Star City in the 36 number section is $100. Sure. It would be higher in the high rollers room.

As fours says, it would take an age to win a fortune on a roulette table, even if that table had bias on it.

Some of the stories about Z and DW are starting to sound apocryphal. There are people even suggesting they win on poker machines FFS.

Card counting and chasing Keno jackpots when the jackpot rises to a level where the expected payout exceeds 100% are plausible. And the insidiously unfair parimutuel pool rebates.

But roulette and poker machines  :what:

What next? Stories of Z and DW crunching Scratchie jackpots?
Entropy went to the trouble to provide an invaluable authentic detailed account of a well documneted ploy.

Only to be confronted with more offensive codswallop from PP7.

What is PP7's post supposed to mean! Seems to be insinuating that Entropy's post was untruthful.

Problem is it was unquestionably true, considering the number of corroborating accounts.

Anyone who can't see that is plain ignorant.

Talk of $100 limits is insane considering Entropy explicitly said it took place in the HV room.

Now while fours never ceases to refrain from his fables about his mathematical, financial, athletic and sexual prowess his claim about this being long and boring screams out that he has never tried plaing Blackjack seriously.

PP7's claim about poker machines is dead wrong.

His whole post, disputing a fact without producing any credible evidence whatsoever is one further testament to his recalcitrance, and another indicator that this forum has outlived its usefulness.

Online fours

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« 2020-Aug-28, 06:48 PM Reply #41 »
jfc,

Sad sac!

Played and enjoyed Blackjack in Townsville for a while BUT only for a while.

Staff managed to spill coffee over me 3 times during my stints. This while I was trying something not mentioned in any books.

Make of that what you will.

Fours


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-28, 09:10 PM Reply #42 »

What is PP7's post supposed to mean! Seems to be insinuating that Entropy's post was untruthful.


Never said any such thing.

You need to be careful what you say jfc. Entropy's lawyers might interpret that as "defamation by implication" i.e. A falsely claims B was saying C was  liar.

Far too much of this thing going on in social media.

Hope we didn't strike a nerve.

You play the odds you are always going to have a lean run from time to time. It is how it works unfortunately.

I certainly don't mean to upset anyone.

This comment was made out of genuine concern for Entropy or any other punter for that matter.

Gamblers all go through tough trots at some time in their gambling life. My comments were genuine and made out of concern as I thought his response to my posts about this subject in general seemed to be misinterpreted as applying to him specifically

Anyone who has come upon hard times through gambling should seek some help from trusted family members or by calling the various state government gambling help lines.

If anyone ever finds themselves in his situation and just wants to have a private chat please feel free to contact me personally via PM and I will guarantee confidentiality.


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-28, 09:43 PM Reply #43 »

Problem is it was unquestionably true, considering the number of corroborating accounts.

Anyone who can't see that is plain ignorant.

Talk of $100 limits is insane considering Entropy explicitly said it took place in the HV room.


You say there are corroborating accounts without being specific.

Can you attest to anyone being in the room with said gamblers at the time?

Do you know for sure what the high roller limits for the 36 number bets were at Wrest Point casino back in the 1970's?

Please be specific in your answers. I have  thick hide, and any personal abuse is water off a duck's back. But please note that I will interpret any redirection of the specific questions to a personal attack as obfuscation and a response of NO to both the above two specific questions.


PP7's claim about poker machines is dead wrong.


Is it? My claim about people winning on poker machines is dead wrong is it?

Please feel free to refute my claim by citing specific examples. And that doesn't mean that A heard it off B who heard it off C....etc.

In general, I repeat my point about gamblers telling us about the wins and never telling us about the losses.

Has Zjelko never placed a losing bet? You always seem to imply that he hasn't.

And if he has placed one losing bet, then it shouldn't need complex mathematical formulae to work out that he can place more than one of them.

His chasing of keno jackpots, whilst his expected return is > 100%, it is not 100% guaranteed. Some people seem to have trouble distinguishing between the two which makes me prick my ears about their claims about their own mathematical abilities.

Coming on here telling people that one has "complex mathematical formulae" and then failing to say anything else is always a red flag to me. Apologies if my inquisitive mathematical mind manifesting itself in the form of questions that rarely get a satisfactory response upsets you.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-28, 09:50 PM Reply #44 »
and another indicator that this forum has outlived its usefulness.

And I leave my comment on this till last.

I have made a good deal many friends on this forum.

We contact each other from time to time via text or PM to check up on each other.

We have fun entering the various tipping comps - often for modest prizes if any at all. But we do enjoy it.

We enjoy discussing 3 year olds, the rich history of Australian Horse Racing, the footy and even get stuck into each other over politics.

And we have a bet but are unapologetic about us being hobby punters. There is nothing wrong with that. I save my serious money for shares and forex.

So if you say the forum has "outlived it's usefulness" then I'm sorry for you in that you cannot get the same enjoyment that many of us do.

Online fours

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« 2020-Aug-28, 10:48 PM Reply #45 »
Oh dear,

Call it reading the form but I recognise Entropy as the real deal from his very early posts onwards. You see it or you don't.

That said people doing well from :-

illegally obtained stewards film that others cannot see

altering dividends to near zero, zero,  or less than zero as a result of an unfair advantage of rebates compared to other punters

paying jockeys to run them dead or not

colluding with various parties to drug/milk shake/electrocute or not

colluding with price setters to falsify the odds on occasion to get set

using size in the market to manipulate the odds in various ways ( no I wont name them all )


have an eye for obtaining an edge in some way but I would not describe ANY of those approaches as reflecting any particular talent.

The talented punters do well without any of that at all.

Fours

ps lots of different parties have been accused of these things, around the world, óver long time periods and at different times, so dont infer anything about any one individual or individuals please. Most of these things have been mentioned on this forum at one time or another though.








« Last Edit: 2020-Aug-28, 10:53 PM by fours »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-29, 04:25 AM Reply #46 »
Oh dear,

Call it reading the form but I recognise Entropy as the real deal from his very early posts onwards. You see it or you don't.

That said people doing well from :-

illegally obtained stewards film that others cannot see

altering dividends to near zero, zero,  or less than zero as a result of an unfair advantage of rebates compared to other punters

paying jockeys to run them dead or not

colluding with various parties to drug/milk shake/electrocute or not

colluding with price setters to falsify the odds on occasion to get set

using size in the market to manipulate the odds in various ways ( no I wont name them all )


have an eye for obtaining an edge in some way but I would not describe ANY of those approaches as reflecting any particular talent.

The talented punters do well without any of that at all.

Fours

ps lots of different parties have been accused of these things, around the world, óver long time periods and at different times, so dont infer anything about any one individual or individuals please. Most of these things have been mentioned on this forum at one time or another though.

There are only two people on this forum I have ever seen ever present their mathematical data in a form that demonstrates they really know what they are talking about.

One being our own Wenona.

The other being a guy called 'arnbet' who was dragged into the old forum and who presented a complex mathematical proof of why mid-tote is better than selecting any individual tote (or something like that - cannot be 100% sure - it was over 10 year ago now and we don't have access to the old forum). He had a minor mistake (a negative where a positive should have been - he acknowledged this),  but it didn't make any difference to his conclusions and it was an impressive piece of work.

I have constantly challenged forum members who claim to have some "mathematical edge" to present their data in a form that demonstrates their true knowledge of the underlying mathematics - or if they are concerned that they are revealing anything they don't want others to know about - then at least present something partial.

I have also presented a simple parimutuel model and asked people to overlay on to that model the algebra required to demonstrate how people can be guaranteed a > 100% return. I've even asked for just a snippet that shows you know something about programming to a depth that exceeds Excel Spreadsheets.


In other words I try and scratch the surface a little by asking specific questions.


And every time all I ever get in response to such requests is a patronizing pat on the back and them saying "oh you don't know what you are talking about but such people exist" - and added with a dash of personal attack - or a claim that "this forum is terrible and I'm going to leave".


This predictable response is like a poker "tell" to me.  They are obfuscating.

What I strongly suspect is that these people use other people like arnbet, and then present to the rest of the world this image of their own genius.


If you are a mathematical genius, then put something up to demonstrate that or shut up.

Or at least have the humility to acknowledge that you are parroting someone else's work.


And before anyone goes off into tears of rage or anything like that thinking I am talking about them, don't be so self centred. These are my general observations of the forum over a number of years - 16 in fact - and are not intended as insults to any particular individual. So no need to go off and have a sook.


Now if you don't mind I'm going to leave this subject as it seems to "upset" people and go off and do some work on our Country Cups tipping comp - where there is no monetary reward - and then look at the form to make selections to enter into a tipping comp run by one of our absolute gems - Brian Mc - who I believe is over the age of 80 - sincerest apologies to you Brian if I've overstated this   :lol:  

You should have a chat to Brian sometime and ask him about the great champion Tulloch who he saw race. Another forum gem - JohnWesleyharding also saw Tulloch race.

And I've got to pick out some selections in the Brisbane quaddie with ratsack - yet another forum gem - so we can have a modest stab at it from our pooled money that we won last Sunday.

And into the mix I'm going to walk the dog.

In other words I'm going to have some fun.

Suggest others try and do the same.

Online fours

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« 2020-Aug-29, 07:28 AM Reply #47 »
PP7,

You are making some false assumptions in my view on what it takes.

Advanced mathematical ability or ability to present same in the accepted format - NOT NECESSARY.

Programming skills beyond Excel spreadsheets - NOT NECESSARY.

Both can help and indeed are necessary for setting up an automated trading BOT yourself from scratch say but this is but one approach of the many many ways the game can be approached.

Something as simple as one bet only per Saturday, being the best bet after long analysis, can turn a modest bank into a substantial one over a year and requires no advanced mathematical skill or programming nous to do so.

Fours


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-29, 08:17 AM Reply #48 »
PP7,

You are making some false assumptions in my view on what it takes.

Advanced mathematical ability or ability to present same in the accepted format - NOT NECESSARY.

Programming skills beyond Excel spreadsheets - NOT NECESSARY.

Both can help and indeed are necessary for setting up an automated trading BOT yourself from scratch say but this is but one approach of the many many ways the game can be approached.

Something as simple as one bet only per Saturday, being the best bet after long analysis, can turn a modest bank into a substantial one over a year and requires no advanced mathematical skill or programming nous to do so.

Fours

Totally agree.

See my comments (God knows where) that I am only backing 20-1 shots or better these days - each way.

I have had 4 bets this horse year for zero returns. I'll see where I'm at after 40 bets.

Point being is that it is a hobby and a bit of fun. No need to overstate what I am doing.

Gwenda's horse in Race 2 at Kembla. Liked the way she finished off her trial. Got a little bit of a bite this morning then back out.


Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2020-Aug-29, 09:44 AM Reply #49 »
The term gambler's ruin is a statistical concept, most commonly expressed as the fact that a gambler playing a negative expected value game will eventually go broke, regardless of their betting system.
How would one define the term 'gambler's gain', where a 'gambler' plays a positive expected value game which will eventually guarantee make a profit due to their betting strategy ?
If someone bets another gambler 2/1 against on heads on a series of coin tosses I believe he would be guaranteed of making a profit.. that is a positive expected value game. You may ask who will offer that bet ? Of course, nobody, but If a gambler continually beats the odds on any outcome he will make a profit.
Rain is expected in Melbourne today, if I was offered 6/1 against that happening I would gladly accept those odds but if I was offered 4/6 on I would not. It is all about the odds nothing more nothing less.
All gamblers do not die broke.
From the late 1960s to the late 1990s I bet on all on course totes throughout Australia arbitraging on course bookmakers odds against the TAB odds. In those earlier days there was no Sky Channel, no betting to the jump in off course TABs, no laptop computers. The off course TAB odds did not reflect the true market odds, all the smart money was on course and was reflected in on course bookmaker's odds and to play the differential between those two markets did not require a university degree in mathematics,. Over those 30 years that advantage slowly but surely dissipated and since 2000 I have hardly had a bet, but for those 30 years I never had a losing year, and yes I paid tax on my winnings as I was full time punter from 1970 until 2000.
Betting in the current day is no doubt completely different and you probably do need to have programming skills etc  to bet against the likes of Z , where he receives rebates, but for those 30 years one did not, in fact a young eccentric, now deceased Tim Walsh, like his brother David, was just coming on the scene on behalf of Z and his team betting with laptops  as I was winding down .
« Last Edit: 2020-Aug-29, 10:22 AM by Bubbasmith »


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