Call it reading the form but I recognise Entropy as the real deal from his very early posts onwards. You see it or you don't.
That said people doing well from :-
illegally obtained stewards film that others cannot see
altering dividends to near zero, zero, or less than zero as a result of an unfair advantage of rebates compared to other punters
paying jockeys to run them dead or not
colluding with various parties to drug/milk shake/electrocute or not
colluding with price setters to falsify the odds on occasion to get set
using size in the market to manipulate the odds in various ways ( no I wont name them all )
have an eye for obtaining an edge in some way but I would not describe ANY of those approaches as reflecting any particular talent.
The talented punters do well without any of that at all.
ps lots of different parties have been accused of these things, around the world, óver long time periods and at different times, so dont infer anything about any one individual or individuals please. Most of these things have been mentioned on this forum at one time or another though.
There are only two people on this forum I have ever seen ever present their mathematical data in a form that demonstrates they really
know what they are talking about.
One being our own Wenona.
The other being a guy called 'arnbet' who was dragged into the old forum and who presented a complex mathematical proof of why mid-tote is better than selecting any individual tote (or something like that - cannot be 100% sure - it was over 10 year ago now and we don't have access to the old forum). He had a minor mistake (a negative where a positive should have been - he acknowledged this), but it didn't make any difference to his conclusions and it was an impressive piece of work.
I have constantly challenged forum members who claim to have some "mathematical edge" to present their data in a form that demonstrates their true knowledge of the underlying mathematics - or if they are concerned that they are revealing anything they don't want others to know about - then at least present something partial.
I have also presented a simple parimutuel model and asked people to overlay on to that model the algebra required to demonstrate how people can be guaranteed a > 100% return. I've even asked for just a snippet that shows you know something about programming to a depth that exceeds Excel Spreadsheets.
In other words I try and scratch the surface a little by asking specific questions.
And every time all I ever get in response to such requests is a patronizing pat on the back and them saying "oh you don't know what you are talking about but such people exist" - and added with a dash of personal attack - or a claim that "this forum is terrible and I'm going to leave".
This predictable response is like a poker "tell" to me. They are obfuscating.
What I strongly suspect is that these people use other people like arnbet, and then present to the rest of the world this image of their own genius.
If you are a mathematical genius, then put something up to demonstrate that or shut up.
Or at least have the humility to acknowledge that you are parroting someone else's work.
And before anyone goes off into tears of rage or anything like that thinking I am talking about them, don't be so self centred. These are my general observations of the forum over a number of years - 16 in fact - and are not intended as insults to any particular individual. So no need to go off and have a sook.
Now if you don't mind I'm going to leave this subject as it seems to "upset" people and go off and do some work on our Country Cups tipping comp - where there is no monetary reward - and then look at the form to make selections to enter into a tipping comp run by one of our absolute gems - Brian Mc - who I believe is over the age of 80 - sincerest apologies to you Brian if I've overstated this
You should have a chat to Brian sometime and ask him about the great champion Tulloch who he saw race. Another forum gem - JohnWesleyharding also saw Tulloch race.
And I've got to pick out some selections in the Brisbane quaddie with ratsack - yet another forum gem - so we can have a modest stab at it from our pooled money that we won last Sunday.
And into the mix I'm going to walk the dog.
In other words I'm going to have some fun
Suggest others try and do the same.