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Bill Benter / Allan Woods/ Zeljko Ranogajec - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Bill Benter / Allan Woods/ Zeljko Ranogajec  (Read 9704 times)

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Offline Bubbasmith

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O.P. « 2020-Jul-28, 03:58 PM »
This video tells how Bill Benter came across Allan Woods and how Benter made a Billion Dollars

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efBG1YfuNhg

And

Zeljko Ranogajec

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mto6Fdr4pI
« Last Edit: 2020-Jul-28, 04:14 PM by Bubbasmith »

Offline Tracksuitdave

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« 2020-Jul-28, 10:07 PM Reply #1 »
.
« Last Edit: 2020-Aug-01, 11:39 AM by MagiC~* »

Offline MagiC~*

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« 2020-Aug-01, 11:39 AM Reply #2 »
Tracksuit Dave, please refrain from using defamatory comments of a personal nature.

It is my ass in the firing line unless you want to put your real name to the accusations   emthup

Offline MagiC~*

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« 2020-Aug-01, 11:40 AM Reply #3 »
All posts that include anything that could be deemed defamatory or of a personal nature will be deleted by mods, so please be careful as to what you post please   emthup

Offline Tracksuitdave

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« 2020-Aug-02, 08:43 PM Reply #4 »
Since Mr Woods is no longer with us are you saying that you have been contacted by Mr Benter or Zeljko?

Offline Entropy

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« 2020-Aug-15, 09:58 PM Reply #5 »
Interesting video's though full of factual errors, Woods and Z both started their careers at Wrest Point casino.
« Last Edit: 2020-Aug-26, 11:07 AM by Entropy »

Offline Grega9430

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« 2020-Aug-18, 07:48 AM Reply #6 »
Interesting Entropy, hopefully you can tell us more including what they are doing now if the Woods/Benter model is outmoded.

Online innerwiz

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« 2020-Aug-18, 08:34 AM Reply #7 »
Ha Grega9430,

Someone’s been caught telling porkies.

Online jfc

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« 2020-Aug-18, 11:18 AM Reply #8 »
Interesting Entropy, hopefully you can tell us more including what they are doing now if the Woods/Benter model is outmoded.
Amazing anyone here would need to ask this.

That operation happened to avail itself of illegally obtained Stewards' videos - which doesn't say much for the model.

Dr Nick's strategy which included video and mounting yard analysis was clearly superior to the model.

As was Humbleton's.

But the overwhelming "advancements" are obscene Kickbacks!



Offline Grega9430

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« 2020-Aug-19, 10:34 AM Reply #9 »
Hi Innerwiz, appreciate the response but I'm awful at cryptic crosswords and it takes me a while to get most jokes, but I'm good at numbers.

Offline Grega9430

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« 2020-Aug-19, 10:37 AM Reply #10 »
Hi JFC, I don't think Entropy knows me so I was just encouraging him to expand as he might know something, even more than you if that's possible.  :biggrin:

Online jfc

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« 2020-Aug-19, 12:11 PM Reply #11 »
My (or InnerWiz's?) bad.

Entropy definitely knows a lot about Zeljko even from back when he was a callow fellow, and I pay close attention to his posts, as an aid to cracking that enigma.

Online innerwiz

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« 2020-Aug-19, 12:27 PM Reply #12 »
I just want to hear what has outmoded the multinomial(?) logit model as the base regression as described in the 1986 paper 'Searching for Positive Returns at the Track' .

You can talk about mounting yards, video footage and steward reports, but that information would have to be quantified and would then be fed into the model as extra factors.

If entropy has any info on what has outmoded it, let's hear it :)
« Last Edit: 2020-Aug-19, 12:30 PM by innerwiz »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-19, 01:00 PM Reply #13 »
How does the chi-square test work on a statistically independent game like Roulette  :what:

Online jfc

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« 2020-Aug-19, 01:53 PM Reply #14 »
Google produces:

About 3,690,000 results (0.42 seconds)

This scheme is very old hat, and clearly very well known.

Roulette wheels don't remember their previous outcomes - hence results are independent of previous outcomes.

But, instead, the test is used to detect biased wheels.

It is probably similar to what Sir Mick's ancestor, Joseph Jagger did to clean up in Monte Carlo.

The catchy ditty however, was about another perp claiming to have broken the bank. Turned out to be a Ponzi schemer.

But if you need to be told all this, perhaps you should reconsider your gambling.




« Last Edit: 2020-Aug-19, 02:10 PM by jfc »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-19, 02:07 PM Reply #15 »
I don't buy that.

If there were biased wheels in a Casino every man and his dog would be on to it and the casino would go broke.

Online jfc

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« 2020-Aug-19, 03:18 PM Reply #16 »
It's hardly the first time you've gone to great lengths to sabotage important threads.

No matter how often you get sprung you persist in coming back for more.

If you were any more ignorant of these well known matters you'd be able to apply for a management position at Wrest Point.



There was also what Ranogajec calls “the low-lying fruit”. Once, they employed hundreds of people to fill out entry forms with every possible permutation of a lotto game, and won $1.6 million. Another time, Walsh discovered that a particular model of roulette wheel had an inbuilt and undetected bias that led to the number 27 being 20% more likely to win, and win they did. Walsh bought himself a new Mercedes and plated it RED-27.

https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2013/february/1366597433/richard-flanagan/gambler#mtr
« Last Edit: 2020-Aug-19, 03:20 PM by jfc »

Offline arthur

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« 2020-Aug-19, 05:41 PM Reply #17 »
A carpenter mate has a favourite expression . . "Nothing in the world is perfectly square . ."

Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't it be impossible for a man-made roulette wheel NOT to have bias . . no matter how small

A little bit less precision involved, but when we were kids at school we used to watch the 'ham-wheels' for bias (and there was plenty) before buying tickets . .

None of us drives a Merc. . . but we did win a few hams  :whistle:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-19, 06:10 PM Reply #18 »
A carpenter mate has a favourite expression . . "Nothing in the world is perfectly square . ."

Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't it be impossible for a man-made roulette wheel NOT to have bias . . no matter how small

A little bit less precision involved, but when we were kids at school we used to watch the 'ham-wheels' for bias (and there was plenty) before buying tickets . .

None of us drives a Merc. . . but we did win a few hams  :whistle:

The casinos check them all the time, and they would sure as hell know if there were any statistical bias on a wheel.

Why do you think they let you have a card and you are allowed to write down the previous numbers?

It is because it is a statistically independent event.

If you take your pencil and card over to the Blackjack table and start writing down the cards that are coming out, then a 7 foot Tongan dressed in a suit will come over and tap you on the shoulder and ask you to come with him.

Blackjack is a statistically dependent event i.e the odds of the next card out is dependent upon what has previously come out.

This is just one more of jfc's fictional "Fantastic Stories of Gambling" - can hardly wait for the movie  :nowink:

Analysis

Almost every casino uses automated software that analyses the winning numbers to determine if there are any obvious anomalies such as specific numbers spinning most. The better equipment will do much more than just look at “which numbers spin most”.

https://www.roulettephysics.com/roulette-wheel-bias/


Online jfc

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« 2020-Aug-20, 01:09 PM Reply #19 »
And right on cue, you do come back for more.

The RED-27 sting in question was also elaborated on in Walsh's book. Now while he is more than happy to omit unflattering episodes in his career, he would be taking great risks of exposure by lying about this.

And there a phenomenal number of googles about similar stings since the 19th century.

You have no clue how many casinos have automated wheel analysis, let alone how many had ~35 years ago when computers were relatively scarce.

The RED-27 article in full:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/01/21/tasmanian-devil

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-20, 01:34 PM Reply #20 »
And right on cue, you do come back for more.

The RED-27 sting in question was also elaborated on in Walsh's book. Now while he is more than happy to omit unflattering episodes in his career, he would be taking great risks of exposure by lying about this.

And there a phenomenal number of googles about similar stings since the 19th century.

You have no clue how many casinos have automated wheel analysis, let alone how many had ~35 years ago when computers were relatively scarce.

The RED-27 article in full:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/01/21/tasmanian-devil

FFS. The 19th century!!!

Quite clearly in my reply to Arthur I'm talking about modern roulette wheels. Any bias would be picked up by the casino before patrons cottoned on. If they didn't they would go broke.

Don't the original owners of Wrest Point the Federal Group still own the joint? Have they gone broke because of biased roulette wheels?

You just don't know the difference between statistical dependence and independence.

Google that!!


Offline Tracksuitdave

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« 2020-Aug-23, 04:29 AM Reply #21 »
OK I get that the Zeljko Exposed thread has been wiped out completely. We can only assume that the great man himself is responsible. Can I respectfully suggest that you just publish whatever legal threats  have been made so that members can at least know what is now prohibited.

I have messaged the moderator for some guidance but am yet to receive a reply.

Online jfc

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« 2020-Aug-23, 05:27 PM Reply #22 »
FFS. The 19th century!!!

Quite clearly in my reply to Arthur I'm talking about modern roulette wheels. Any bias would be picked up by the casino before patrons cottoned on. If they didn't they would go broke.

Don't the original owners of Wrest Point the Federal Group still own the joint? Have they gone broke because of biased roulette wheels?

You just don't know the difference between statistical dependence and independence.

Google that!!
And you still haven't tired of embarrassing yourself.

My earlier post clearly showed I do understand statistical independence, so why make such an insane suggestion!

Any casino that incompetently donated so much free money to Zeljko as Wrest Point did has to be a laughing stock within the industry.

And why lose it when I effectively noted that there a number of credible claims of profitably detecting biased wheels since ~1881!

There are enough readers here who are aware of my success using mathematical techniques so challenging that makes you appear a bigger fool.

Maybe it just shows you up as bitter that you will never achieve what I did in this caper?



Offline fours

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« 2020-Aug-23, 05:29 PM Reply #23 »
Eh,

What is it that you achieved exactly?

Fours

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Aug-23, 08:43 PM Reply #24 »
Eh,

What is it that you achieved exactly?

Fours

Yeah I don't know. We just get these "self proclamations" all the time.

All I know is that every gambler goes broke in the end

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

And there is another phenomena that might apply here as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_conceit

The image projected is that of a group of gamblers like those in the thread title WHO NEVER LOSE.

You hear all about the wins but you NEVER hear about the losses.

Gimme a break   :nowink:

You forget about the losses
You exaggerate the wins


Jackson Browne - The Road





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