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Bill Vlahos - Psychology of Punting - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Bill Vlahos - Psychology of Punting  (Read 129200 times)

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Offline ratsack

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« 2014-Jan-03, 08:56 PM Reply #150 »
An interesting aside to BC3 and their purchase of Jimmy is to whether the auction prices are fair dinkum. If a vendor and a purchaser , who just happens to be a syndicator, get their heads together and agree on a dummy sale price a horse then can be syndicated on that dummy price. The mugs who jump into get a share in the syndicate are then buying shares based on that dummy price plus the normal add ons.

 

nice darts there bubba    :lol:


Offline Stan Still

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« 2014-Jan-04, 07:29 AM Reply #151 »
Spot on here, be interesting to see how many yearlings are "bought" during the presale inspections at studs and agistment places months prior to actual sales, then going through the ring only to be run up to a profitable margin. I did understand that some studs did stop the practice when they saw what sort of margins were being added to the yearlings between the farm sale price and auction price. been going on for years.Few of the tricks exposed in court case between A Cummings and Patinack few years back.

Offline Jeunes

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« 2014-Jan-04, 12:10 PM Reply #152 »
Another interesting question is how many studs buy progeny from their own sires. This may increase the average price of their sire's yearlings but that is not the reason they buy the yearling. It is (cough) because they believe in the progeny of their sires.

Offline Authorized

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« 2014-Jan-04, 02:04 PM Reply #153 »
There's far too much cynicism on the fringes of racing. How has it survived for 400 years ?

Offline whispering

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« 2014-Jan-04, 02:43 PM Reply #154 »
i read somewhwre the head of owners associatio  warned integrity unit andwas gling public on rsn in 2010 but laywers blockrd it

Offline ledgerr77

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« 2014-Jan-04, 05:14 PM Reply #155 »
 :chin: Sal must have thought this job was a nice little earner.............pity we were hoping he might make a difference... emthdown

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2014-Jan-05, 09:04 AM Reply #156 »
From The Age newspaper...

WHEN retail mogul Gerry Harvey looks out over the crowd at his Magic Millions thoroughbred auctions on the Gold Coast on Wednesday, one familiar face is likely to be missing.
Bill Vlahos, who for the past few years has spent up big with Magic Millions and competitor Inglis, has gone to ground following the spectacular collapse of his punting club, ''The Edge'', and his racing empire, BC3 Thoroughbreds.
But it is not just at the Magic Millions and at Inglis sales in March that the Vlahos effect will be felt. His credit-fuelled buying binge also raises questions about the tactics adopted by some breeders to pump up the price of highly fancied yearlings and the red-hot market created in the frenzied atmosphere of the auction ring.
While almost every other aspect of racing, from betting to racehorse syndication to the races themselves, is tightly regulated and policed, the auction yards remain an unfettered free market. There is talk in racing circles of secret commissions paid to underbidders, and of pre-sale arrangements to ''run up'' the price of favoured yearlings well above their valuations.

The Vlahos imbroglio has the potential to scare off would-be horse owners - the large offshore buyers, who in recent years have underpinned the industry's main auctions, and the smaller individual investors considering taking a stake in a thoroughbred.
Uncertainty still surrounds the ownership of ''Jimmy'', the colt Vlahos bought for a record $5 million at last year's Inglis Easter yearling sales in Sydney.
It is not even clear who will get the insurance money, due to be paid by an overseas syndicate, following the death of the horse last Sunday.
There had never been anything like this in the hundred years Inglis had held its Easter sales at Randwick. The auctions have survived wars, an outbreak of botulism and even an occasion when Bart Cummings was unable to pay his bills.
But on April 9, with Black Caviar just days away from winning an incredible 25th race in a row, all eyes were on lot 131: her half-brother, ''Jimmy'', a brown yearling by champion sire Redoute's Choice.
The pressure was immense. More than 2000 people turned out to watch the bidding, and many thousands watched on TV.
What the thousands watching did not know was that vets who had inspected Jimmy had already raised questions about the horse's soundness to race, which Fairfax Media understands put several international investors off bidding. Whatever the internationals thought, Adam Sangster, the son of world racing legend and pools magnate Robert, was first to put his hand up, bidding $2m.
Vlahos, standing under a fig tree long associated with big bids, entered the fray when the price hit $4m.
With his first bid, he had already exceeded the credit limit set for him by Inglis by $1m. With cameras already firmly focused on him, he was allowed to continue. Sangster and his Swettenham Stud matched Vlahos bid-for-bid as the price climbed in $100,000 increments.
But as the auctioneer called a bid of $5m by Sangster, his nerve - or perhaps his budget - failed.
TV cameras captured him furiously gesticulating to auctioneer Peter Heagney, indicating his bid was $4.9m. Vlahos, who later said he planned to dip out at $4.5m, picked up the horse for $5m.
Seller Rick Jamieson, who owns events and catering outfit Harry The Hirer, banked his share of the sale proceeds within weeks. He retained a 10 per cent stake in the horse, making his share $4.5m, minus Inglis' commission.
For Vlahos, it was yet another horse bought on the never-never. While it was his biggest buy, it was only the latest in a string of big-money transactions with Inglis and Magic Millions.
The previous year he paid $2.6m for another of Black Caviar's relatives, a half-sister now known as Belle Couture. In the first three months of last year, he ran up bills of $5.9m with Inglis and $1.36m with Magic Millions. As late as November, Inglis believed that Vlahos was on the verge of paying, and told Fairfax Media his account was in order.
However, even as Vlahos made that winning bid in April, he knew his punting club was edging towards collapse. In a series of emails dating to January, he had warned his thousands of investors that the club was having cash-flow problems and should be wound up.
Just a few weeks after lashing out on Jimmy, Vlahos was begging for patience from punting club members who wanted their money back.
''The bottom line is, I need everyone to contact me about what is realistic for them to hold out for and what needs to be paid straight away,'' he said in an email to members. ''I am not asking anyone to do anything other than what they are comfortable doing.''
Now, The Edge appears to have blown up, taking with it the $500m in paper profits its members once thought existed.
The collapse of the Vlahos operation also threatens the balance sheets of Inglis and Magic Millions.
Financial accounts for Magic Millions are not available, but those filed by Inglis show the amount of credit it advanced to buyers, including Vlahos, has ballooned dramatically over the past three years.
At the end of June 2011, buyers owed Inglis about $50m. The figure was $59m the following year, and jumped to $66m last year.
The credit Inglis advances to buyers is supported by its borrowings, which have risen from about $30m to about $39m over the same period.
Those borrowings include a $5m loan from the Australian Turf Club, due to be repaid or refinanced by July 1.
The death of Jimmy threatens Inglis' bottom line. If it cannot recover the $5m insurance policy, that amount will have to be written off. This would eclipse the profit Inglis declared last year of $3.8m.
However, determining who receives the insurance is a puzzle administrators of BC3 have yet to solve. In addition to Inglis, those with a claim to a share of the money include investors who bought a stake in the horse from BC3 and other secured creditors such as Magic Millions.
At this year's sales, buyers are all but certain to put yearling valuations under scrutiny like never before. Authorities - racing and law enforcement - are also likely to be keen observers.

« Last Edit: 2014-Jan-05, 09:08 AM by Bubbasmith »

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2014-Jan-05, 09:15 AM Reply #157 »
There's far too much cynicism on the fringes of racing. How has it survived for 400 years ?

Where did the indigenous people, before Cook landed, conduct their thoroughbred  racing ?

Offline Authorized

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« 2014-Jan-05, 09:42 AM Reply #158 »
Where did the indigenous people, before Cook landed, conduct their thoroughbred  racing ?

  :lol:

Thats an interesting question on 2 fronts.

Horse racing is a world wide pursuit - hence its age.

And secondly the fact you called it THOROUGHBRED racing.   emthup  

Offline J.Glenoban

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« 2014-Jan-05, 10:34 AM Reply #159 »
In the Sunday Herald Sun on the 15th Dec 2013 and presumably in the other News Ltd Sunday papers Andrew Rule published a story where he wrote:

'The cracks in Dollar Bill's act appeared early this year, around the time he started suggesting he might have to pay a record price of, say, $5 million for Black Caviar's half-brother. He then made the prediction come true, running up the horse's price to that exact figure at the Sydney Easter Yearling Sales.'

Later in the story:

'After he made the winning bid to top relieved-looking underbidder Adam Sangster, he turned on the French champagne in a marquee full of new best friends celebrating buying the most overpriced set of legs in Australian sports history.'

The insinuation here is clear and Sangster's reputation in minds of readers has been lessened yet as far as i can tell Sangster has been totally mute on the issue since the article was published. 

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2014-Jan-05, 11:37 AM Reply #160 »
   :lol:   

Thats an interesting question on 2 fronts.

Horse racing is a world wide pursuit - hence its age.

And secondly the fact you called it THOROUGHBRED racing.     emthup     

I intentionally did not  mention kangaroo or wallaby racing :beer:

Online jfc

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« 2014-Jan-05, 12:49 PM Reply #161 »
I intentionally did not  mention kangaroo or wallaby racing :beer:
Smart money would be on Old Man Emu.

Although it would be unlikely to be flying down the straight.

But you'd want a saver on Rolf's Platypus Duck.

If unwatched, it could go running amuck.

Then there's always Gatto's patron Bob Hawke.

If there's a brown paper bag just past the finishing post, that alcoholic philanderer would cream his mates  Laurie Connell and Brian Burke.

Of course there's still a worry Vlahos or Bastion could record astronomical performances. Prior to correct weight.

Offline Arsenal

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« 2014-Jan-11, 09:39 AM Reply #162 »
Holdup on potential payout on "Jimmy" waiting on autopsy results ......may be nothing out of the ordinary but you never know ..Insurers are quick to take the premiums but slow on paying claims in some circumstances. :o

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/payout-on-hold-over-death-of-5-million-colt-jimmy/story-fn67vr4w-1226799283777

Offline tontonan

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« 2014-Jan-11, 12:57 PM Reply #163 »
"Blood tests were conducted as part of the autopsy to try and determine if Jimmy's illness was caused by any other means but the pathology results have not been completed."

 I am not a medical man and am in awe of what they can do but 'caused by any other means' seems curious to me.  As I understand it laminitis has a multitude of possible causes and is idiosyncratic.  I mean, one horse can be treated with some drug and not get laminitis but another horse can contract laminitis as a consequence of the same treatment. 

Would it be more likely they are testing for pathogens that would have been the particular result of a spider bite ?


Offline Arsenal

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« 2014-Jan-15, 05:58 PM Reply #164 »
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/exclusive-global-hunt-for-missing-vlahos-millions/story-fnibcaa0-1226801895195?utm_source=Herald%20Sun&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=editorial&net_sub_uid=6442941

Good luck to the administrators getting anything back from any of the members who had the good luck and/or good sense to withdraw their funds. :whistle:

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2014-Feb-02, 03:53 PM Reply #165 »
Bankrupt Bill Vlahos in hiding

BILL Vlahos withdrew $200,000 in three separate transactions the day after he was allegedly assaulted and his ute was torched in December, it was revealed at a creditors' meeting in Melbourne yesterday.

Within a week, Vlahos had applied for bankruptcy. Vlahos was the mastermind of the punting syndicate The Edge, which has since been branded a Ponzi scheme.

Since 2008, under the banner of BC3 Thoroughbreds, of which he was chairman, Vlahos spent millions of dollars on thoroughbreds that he onsold to clients. However, the company was placed in administration, which coincided with the revelation that investors in The Edge were supposedly almost $200 million out of pocket.

The trustee in charge of administering Vlahos's application for bankruptcy, Clyde White of PCI Partners, said the statement of loss was about $175m.

Vlahos, fearing for his safety, has not been seen in public since he was found bloodied, but not seriously harmed, outside the entrance to the BC3 pre-training property and offices at Connewarre on the evening of December 8. He was treated by paramedics and told police that two or three thugs accosted him before setting the vehicle ablaze.

Two days earlier, Vlahos had appeared in the NSW Supreme Court after members of the "punting club" had some of his assets frozen while trying to get to find out where their "winnings" had gone.

The court heard that Vlahos and Daniel Maxwell, who placed the syndicate's bets and was based in Dubai, had access to The Edge bank account. Vlahos told the court that he had been shocked to learn $194m had virtually disappeared overnight and so had Maxwell.


The Edge had been started more than six years ago by Vlahos, and people invested tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars over time, some reinvesting dividends and investing more while recruiting friends and associates to join. A laptop computer, which had been used by Vlahos to access the bank account, was meant to be handed over to the court on December 10. It was destroyed in the fire.

On December 9, Vlahos withdrew $200,000 in three transactions - one of $180,000 and two amounts of $10,000.

The following day, BC3 Thoroughbreds was placed in administration and it became clear that $8m worth of horses had not been paid for, purchased on credit from auction houses, most notably the ill-fated $5m half-brother to Black Caviar.

Vlahos reappeared in the NSW Supreme Court on December 12 and had his passport seized. That was the last time he was seen in public.

He applied for bankruptcy on December 16 and rang the court on the eve and morning of his next scheduled appearance on December 19 to say he did not have the money to buy an air ticket from Melbourne to Sydney and was without legal representation.

Invited to join about 40-50 creditors yesterday, Vlahos declined, and is said to fear for his safety.

Vlahos also chose not to offer a statement that could have been read to the gathering.

The investigative panel, comprising two stewards and a lawyer, assigned to the long-running Smoking Aces case, will tender a report to the Racing Victoria board, which is scheduled to meet next Thursday.

Smoking Aces landed a betting coup at Cranbourne in April 2011, sparking a police and stewards' investigation.

At one stage, police believed there may have been a link to the murder of racing identity Les Samba, shot dead earlier that year.

The police did not lay charges, but the stewards, who had awaited the conclusion of the police line of inquiry, picked up the threads of their investigation late last year.

Several licensed people were interviewed.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/turf-thoroughbreds/bankrupt-bill-vlahos-in-hiding/story-fnajufri-1226815330220

Offline Arsenal

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« 2014-Feb-07, 07:12 AM Reply #166 »
Racing inquiry nabs its first victim ......owner who failed to disclose a criminal conviction for importing drugs.

http://www.aapmegaform.com.au/news/article.aspx?article-id=179799&category=RN

No info yet on any such outcome for the unnamed Asian reported to be at or near the head of the HK Triad.......reportedly owns a stud farm and a number of well known racehorses. :o

Offline Jims Punting

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« 2014-Feb-09, 09:34 PM Reply #167 »
Hoods put fear into Bill Vlahos over punting club collapse ... February 09, 2014 9:10PM

http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/hoods-put-fear-into-bill-vlahos-over-punting-club-collapse/story-fnii5sms-1226821987201

Offline el zoro

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« 2014-Feb-11, 11:41 AM Reply #168 »
I can't believe he hasn't fled to Switzerland or maybe Iceland.   :lol:
 
 

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2014-Feb-11, 05:50 PM Reply #169 »
He could do a little Steven and pop up in Lillyhammer  :lol:

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2014-Feb-11, 07:08 PM Reply #170 »
I note Simon Marshall has once again been putting advertisements on radio attempting to get a tour group together , of which he will be tour leader. good luck !!!!

Offline Lert

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« 2014-Feb-11, 07:50 PM Reply #171 »
I note Simon Marshall has once again been putting advertisements on radio attempting to get a tour group together , of which he will be tour leader. good luck !!!!
It isn't by chance a treasure hunt is it............to find Bill Vlahos' fortune?

Offline Draven39

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« 2014-Feb-11, 10:19 PM Reply #172 »
I note Simon Marshall has once again been putting advertisements on radio attempting to get a tour group together , of which he will be tour leader. good luck !!!!

Yes he also managed to keep his position on 7Two with the Saturday races last weekend, of course no mention at all with anything at all to do with BC3 and he was very quiet about anything to do with syndicates.. nothing said about Jimmy's demise either.

God I love how they can so easily ignore these things like they did with Ollies return to racing in the Spring.  :clap2:

Offline Arsenal

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Offline Arsenal

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« 2014-Feb-21, 05:16 PM Reply #174 »


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