Cup Pointer 1 – Weights
As Lou Luciani stated weight is an important factor over the two miles of a Perth Cup and no horse has been able to carry more than 54.5kg to victory for a long time. In fact the 54.5kg was carried by Lottila Bay in 2001 which was sent out as topweight only 3.5kg over the minimum. However minimum weights have only been around 53kg for the last 4 years, previous to that they were 51kg or below. Only Rosskaen and Daka’s Gem are being forced to carry any significant weight above the minimum this year with 4kg and 3kg respectively. It will make the job harder for them but not impossible.Cup Pointer 2 – Barriers
Surprisingly barriers are more important than you would think in a 3200m. In the last 13 years 11 winners have drawn barrier 7 or better. The only exceptions have been last years winner Respect who was given a beautiful ride by Jason Whiting and Cardinal Colours who got over early from a wide drawn and led all the way.Cup Pointer 3 – Lead Up race
Strangely none of the past 10 winners have won at their previous start. However, in the last 15 years the winner of the Perth Cup has not been beaten more than 5 lengths including Cardinal Colours who was beaten 10th in the Cox Stakes by exactly that margin. This is a very telling stat and will generally eliminate a lot of the roughies in the race who have been struggling for there best form or just aren’t up to the class of the races they are contesting. Cup Pointer 4 – C.B. Cox Stakes
The traditional lead up race to the Cup and an amazing stat is that no horse has completed the double in recent years. Of the last 10 Cox Stakes winners 9 have gone into to the Cup with 7 of those runner in the top 5 but no winners. However the Cup winner in the last 9 out of 10 years has contested the Cox Stakes. Only the brilliant King Of Saxony who won first up didn’t go around in the Cox.
Looking at these Cup pointers and comparing with this years field there is one horse who fits the bill nicely in all the above categories – WESTERLY BREEZE. 53kg, barrier 6, beaten ¾ length in the Cox Stakes last start. Historically CATS FUN has a few things against it but given the weaker standard this year could defy the odds. The other runner who deserves some consideration is KIA ORA MISS, the Adam Durrant 5yo mare is also an on speed runner with breeding to match the 3200m distance. The best outsider in the race for sure.
If history is anything to go by an each way ticket with WESTERLY BREEZE is the way to go in this years Perth Cup.Selections 16. Westerly Breeze 3. Cats Fun 4. Kia Ora Miss