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Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Apr-18, 10:07 PM Reply #200 »

Back to Caulfield on Saturday

The first and last are races to be wary of -- over 1400 and with 11 and 15 starters .

Do not try to 'get out on the last'!

The meeting generally is suspect as it seems to be restricted to vobis-gold participants -- but with a limited list of entrants it is possible that the better performed starters have the edge.

[The Randwick meeting is also suspect with a big-day and G races attracting too many hopefuls]

.....Australian racing is at abit of a crossroads........why pay $1 m for a horse that could be undone by some no-hoper in an overcrowded field?




Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Apr-23, 03:42 AM Reply #201 »

..........another ripper day at Caulfieldon Saturday............ a ripper-off of TAB punters and a likely benefit to RVL corporate sponsors.

Even for you diehards the penny must be about ready to drop.

......we are now in blind-freddy territory.

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Apr-23, 07:31 AM Reply #202 »
  Absolutely, as Fours might say Hmmmmmm:

Quote
VF140817 CF42104F * RACE NAME ID* [ CF42104F  2018. VOBIS GOLD HEATH,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2000 mtrs]. COMPRUN 04-21-2018. AT 15:02:33 RESULT  [    1  3  11  5    ~     4    2    ]  F4 $ 33,526.*   *POOL ONLY $20k

VF140817 CF42104F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  1  8  11  3  5  ] [  1 SELF SENSE. a *LR7DS* ].[ 8 BLUE JANGL.  ---  ].[ 11 LAUGHING H. a *LR7DS* ].[ 3 KIWIA W% 4.  --   ].[ 5 PATCH ADAM. a *LR7DS* ].[ ] F4 & 5LOW
WDIV E/W BET *

   1.  The race had an Integrity Rating of 80% in that it selected  [  1  8  11  3  5  ]  as most likely contenders (  four out of 5 selections placed in the First Four).
   
    2.   Three horses in the race had raced within the last seven days  what numbers were they?    [                   ]  and where did they finish in Saturday's race?.

    3.  The highest earner in the race was  [    ]   and where did it finish in Saturday's race?.

  May help if you take up some of the reading of Dr Catriona Wallace  on  A.I.  ( Artificial Intelligence or Software Coding ).
« Last Edit: 2018-Apr-23, 10:51 AM by pegasyber »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Apr-23, 07:40 AM Reply #203 »
The only blind Freddy is you, Peter Mair and your fellow dumb arse ignorants

I backed Self Sense at the massive odds and almost pulled off another with Rhythm To Spare

Sadly, I was too lazy to do the form.....like you and the other dumbos and Sams Image got under my guard, costing me a fat early quaddy

The penny will surely drop soon for Mair he has to do his form


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Apr-23, 02:51 PM Reply #204 »

Knowing that the wily one selected the longshots is only to be expected -- every week.

The mere mortals are also impressed with the Pegger who routinely reveals his insights after the race  -- but appears to have a system that few others can replicate.

......there would seem to be a commercial opportunity here for someone to explore with the Pegger.

To be fair -- Monty had Self Sense in as his long-last 5th selection and overall had 7 of the 9 winners in his top 5.

.......even so I doubt many of the modest TAB punters would have enjoyed the results.



Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Apr-23, 06:43 PM Reply #205 »

.......even so I doubt many of the modest TAB punters would have enjoyed the results.

We've told you why. You're lazy, ignorant and lack Self Sense :bulb:

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Apr-24, 07:42 AM Reply #206 »
   Peter; Not really  but I have to tell you that software has no commercial value. 
  It's best use these days is to show just how hard it is to make a profit, on a long term basis, from punting, and in fact has a modifying effect on the problem gambler if they will adopt it, but they unfortunately will not put the time and effort into what is necessary, and so the gauged percentage figure for about 97% of punters that lose the lot, has remained constant over many years.
  I have tried to enthuse punters to take up the challenge of learning how to program a computer, but very few have risen to the challenge, despite that it is about one of the easiest challenges they will have experienced in life. The necessary learning skills are all freely available on the Internet, and their children are already being taught to code a computer in the earliest years of schooling.
  One thing the computer can do is with very little effort and in less than three seconds analyse a horse race and spew out more information than one can handle, but in the end will show that much more than half the field have the ability to win or place in that race. And that is the punter's biggest problem.
 


 
« Last Edit: 2018-Apr-27, 06:13 AM by pegasyber »

Offline Dave

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« 2018-Apr-24, 09:15 PM Reply #207 »
Peg of course you have some good points there.....the problem is Human Nature.....humans(and probably every other species on earth but lets stick with Humans for this exercise)

Now where was I? Oh yes Humans don't like change ....of any kind.....that is what I believe most of the problems in the world are caused by.......... an aversion to change, even things like racism is about not wanting to change.......we don't hate other races....we just don't want them here........for fear they will change the balance....they will take our stuff, lets build a wall and keep them out..........but again I digress

I have been punting for many years......more than half a century..........for a very long time I considered that I knew as much if not more than anyone.....but I was constantly losing(I had some great wins but then gave it back)
 when I was so good it was hard to understand why?........now I knew it wasn't my fault....it was just that I was the world's unluckiest punter?...........the problem with that theory is if you blame someone or something else you can't change or fix it.....the only thing you can change is yourself.....but first you have to accept the blame.....and Pete like 97% of all punters.....they look for something else to blame, that was my epiphany.....from then on things changed....even my luck improved!

I have been consistently winning for many years....it really ain't that hard.......Once I had a long hard look inwards at what I was doing right and what I was doing wrong, you need discipline, you need rules and you need to keep records..........but the most important is you need to be honest with yourself............
The Computer makes life a lot easier.....I don't understand it the way you do, but I would be lost without it,  that ain't my strength, my strength is knowing horses and people(especially racing people, cos  they don't think like any other member of society)

every one is a creature of habit......very few realise it, we all have "tells" Horses have "tells" Jockeys have "tells" and trainers have "tells".....amd yes punters have "tells" if you get my drift?

but back to your point, trying to teach some one something they don't want to learn is just too hard.......I am not religious in fact I am an Atheist but I think there is a lot of truth in the sentiment of the saying "God helps those who help themselves......and Christ help those who can't"

we all have strengths...and weaknesses.........ignore that fact at your peril..........another theory that has a lot of merit is ......if you always do what you always did......you will always get what you always got!
If you can't do something then listen to someone who can and try to improve sounds like logic......but is is easier to assume every one loses so stay with the mob.........like water running down hill, find the way of least resistance and let life beat you up

As Pete said Monty(whoever that is) picked 7 of the 9 winners.......winning isn't (Just) about picking winners.....everyone can do that.....even a broken watch is right twice a day

Winning is as much about how you bet than it is about what you back.........get some grip on how to price a race and when Bookies have got it wrong.....there are plenty of opportunities, they are pricing 1000's of horses every day, mistakes must happen........you (the punter)get to choose what you back and when you bet......Good punters have an advantage over a bookmaker in that respect.........look for their weakness and use your strength

It really ain't that hard but it is hard work.........but you can't expect winning anything against a competent adversary to be easy.....and yet bookies are more competitive than they have ever been, especially to the recreational punter, money back specials, boosted prices, protest payouts......my question is how do punters lose?

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Apr-25, 09:25 AM Reply #208 »
Monty has 5 pucks in a race.
 Not hard to claim 7 winners in a day

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Apr-25, 09:27 AM Reply #209 »
Great post Dave.
Until Mair came along I thought I was the worst punter in the world


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Apr-25, 07:35 PM Reply #210 »

Get ready for Caulfield on Saturday

............. take the kids to the pictures and enjoy yourself  OR have a bet?

Those silly enough to waste time doing the form and their money having a bet should ponder the prospect of a quadrella bet --- the last 3 legs have capacity fields of 16 and R8  a BM 84 over 1400 with such an inflated field should be a joy to steer well clear of.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Apr-29, 04:44 AM Reply #211 »


....... the kids to the pictures was the better bet by far.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Apr-29, 08:38 AM Reply #212 »

....... the kids to the pictures was the better bet by far.

The further away you are from a Raceday the better. Itís just a shame that the kids had to tolerate you

Hope you learned something from seeing Peter Rabbit. Of course the moral is to stay away from things you know nothing about. Hope you pay attention

Offline Gintara

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« 2018-Apr-29, 10:06 AM Reply #213 »
It probably is best for Peter if he stays out of the garden.

Seems he treads on that up turned rake regularly. 

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-09, 04:39 PM Reply #214 »


Back to the Heath on Saturday -- get ready

The rail is out 12 m and that presumably narrows the track and affects the consequences of barrier draws.

There are two low-grade races over 1440 with 12 starters and that is  cause for caution on top of the prospects with the 'rail out 12m'.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-09, 05:05 PM Reply #215 »
Well, we noted you shut up about last weekend. Cowering in your corner
Minute divvys embarrassed you again and punters were over joyed.

Youíll be wrong again this weekend.  Making it 19 of the past 21

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-09, 10:23 PM Reply #216 »


......... been waiting for that wily..............the delay says something about you knowing .......as I alo twigged..............that the races last week were best described as 'croc' races.

........ the races were full of crocs, in a free trial, competing for 10th  ..........the winners stood out ........... as I also warned.

Even so keep your eye on some of the crocs now primed for a killing on the country circuit.

[The punters you know are a diverse group ----- overjoyed at both very big and very small dividends.]

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-10, 06:14 AM Reply #217 »


[The punters you know are a diverse group ----- overjoyed at both very big and very small dividends.]

Yes they are Peter.

You're  the one cherry picking high exotica dividends and jumping to baseless conclusion in your usual dishonest way

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-10, 06:16 AM Reply #218 »

Low-grade rubbish at Caulfield

Have a go at Race 3 -- 9 starters over 1600 m -- 2 are 7yro, 3 are 8yro and 1 is a 10yro  -- spare my days!

Race 7 has 2 6yro, 1 7yro and 1 9yro -- one of these has to run better than 10th.

This rubbish has no part of a Saturday city meeting paying $100k per race.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-11, 06:01 PM Reply #219 »

Pre-post prices for Saturday suggest a repeat of last week is possible

                                        ...... big fields but only a couple of runners conceded chances in races where long odds suggest most are out for a subsidized run.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-11, 07:30 PM Reply #220 »
After being exposed for the past 20 oddd weeks! Mair is covering his arse again

Back peddling of the highest degree  :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-12, 06:19 PM Reply #221 »



.............. very sensibly so as the day unfolded

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-13, 06:28 AM Reply #222 »



Some runners still to finish

The beaten margins on Saturday suggest quite clearly that some horses accepting and allowed to run should be neither.

The last couple of Saturdays in Melbourne have had flashing lights on Friday to say only a couple of runners in most races have any credible chance.

Paying appearance money to put a field together is now seeing 'connections' take advantage of  a sily system that covers costs to give a horse a run and presumably a generous welcome for a day out.

Saturday racing in Melbourne has come to a sorry pass when it is being wrecked by inflated fields to start with and now by an inability to even attract a credible field.

............... making the Moodys and Smerdons walk away from the game unnecessarily will not help.

There will be a reckoning.




Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-13, 12:35 PM Reply #223 »
21 weeks of mair being wrong  :lol:

Yet again the quaddy is skinny and mair shuts up about it
Now the focus is beaten margins

What a fool he is grasping at the straws of self justification
« Last Edit: 2018-May-13, 01:40 PM by wily ole dog »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-15, 07:21 AM Reply #224 »


Croc racing in Victoria (as well as the NT)

The explanation for the absence of barier trials in Victoria seems to be an inclination to allow 'triers' to start in races on a basis that they are subsidized to take part and confuse the punters to betting more.

 ...................one can only wonder if any one at RVL  is ringing around to bolster fields on Saturdays with the prospect starters finishing 10th or better having  their expenses covered.

...............any of this  mayl eventually be exposed at a royal commission.......possibly in a state other than Victoria.




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