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Author Topic: CAUTIONS FOR FLEMINGTON  (Read 7963 times)

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Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-03, 07:43 AM Reply #150 »
Hope the quaddy pays a fortune and my small wager will give me a big win :thumbsup:

Offline Spudda028

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« 2018-May-03, 10:37 AM Reply #151 »
good luck, I hope it does, pleas ensure you declare the take taken to the TAB and your investment along with your name address DOB TFN and daily punting investments for the last 5 years broken down to each individual punting corporate,  your last 10 years tax returns and preferred beer.  That should satisfy the punters friend. But of course if you have ever colluded with friends in a punters club ie a syndicate or ever lived out West then look out you are in big trouble!

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-03, 05:48 PM Reply #152 »
good luck, I hope it does, pleas ensure you declare the take taken to the TAB and your investment along with your name address DOB TFN and daily punting investments for the last 5 years broken down to each individual punting corporate,  your last 10 years tax returns and preferred beer.  That should satisfy the punters friend. But of course if you have ever colluded with friends in a punters club ie a syndicate or ever lived out West then look out you are in big trouble!

 :clap2: :clap2:

That would be totally lost on Mairs intellect and personality

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-04, 03:30 PM Reply #153 »


What can go wrong?

The consensus in the media on Friday afternoon, around a couple of standout selections in each quaddie leg,  suggests that the expected quaddie dividend will be modest -- possibly as little as $100 if the favoured 3/8/5/1 combination gets up.

I hope it does -- or something close to it does -- that's the way it should be -- races running true to form is what most punters expect and why they bet.

If, however, there is another blowout -- as usual -- how will that be rationalized?

Online fours

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« 2018-May-04, 05:04 PM Reply #154 »
Peter,

Wagge Wagga Gold Cup 14 horse field before the 3/1 2nd fav gets scratched BUT the horses STILL finish in exact market order of those remaining. Rebate players laughing but most other puters struggling to show dcent profits if any.

Muswellbrook big field also finishes in market order - again rebate players laughing but few others.....

Peter you need to learn that if the races finish as you claim you'd like them to you will lose while the rebate players clean up.

Somewhhat rougher results are in fact your best chance providing you do the work to snare them.

Fours

Offline gunbower

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« 2018-May-04, 07:30 PM Reply #155 »
There dead set is no one home with this Mair clown is there ? He hasn't got a clue has he ? I know I have met some dumb pr---- in my life but he really "rings the shed".

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-04, 09:40 PM Reply #156 »

What can go wrong?

The consensus in the media on Friday afternoon, around a couple of standout selections in each quaddie leg,  suggests that the expected quaddie dividend will be modest -- possibly as little as $100 if the favoured 3/8/5/1 combination gets up.

I hope it does -- or something close to it does -- that's the way it should be -- races running true to form is what most punters expect and why they bet.

If, however, there is another blowout -- as usual -- how will that be rationalized?

Covering your arse now I see, you goose  :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-05, 06:39 AM Reply #157 »

Stop the rebates on TAB bets

The problems with inflated fields and rough results are compounded by giving rebates to big-betting syndicates -- rebates on bets into parimutuel pools should be stopped.

Offline Antitab#

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« 2018-May-05, 07:33 AM Reply #158 »
Please explain how rebates have any bearing on field sizes?

Online fours

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« 2018-May-05, 07:45 AM Reply #159 »
Antitab,

I assume your post is directed at Peter.

My comments relate to short odds payouts regardless of field size.

Fours

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-05, 08:13 AM Reply #160 »
Please explain how rebates have any bearing on field sizes?

They donít

Mair wrong again

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-05, 06:22 PM Reply #161 »


Rebates and field sizes

The connection between rebates and field sizes is straightforward.

The coming of fixed-odds betting to TABs as well as corporates shifted the focus of the TAB revenue take to losing bets and away from a just a fixed share of a parimutuel pool.

Tabcorp makes more when punters lose their whole stake -- so it also suits Tabcorp  and corporates to have inflated fields and rough results: do you nthink Tabcorp complained when RVL decided to inflate fields?

Inflated fields increase betting turnover -- that is why RVL pays prizemoney down to 10th, to ensure that punters cover more possible outcomes.

The only 'mug money' on the table is that contributed by modest-betting punters and that applies especially to modest  exotic bets with which the mugs are unable to cover the field ---  TABs and corporates (and RVL) make more money when syndicates place big bets covering the field (and the mugs lose).

The syndicates are further 'assisted' in robbing the mugs when they get rebates on their big bets.

I wouldnot think this sequence was hard to understand -- REBATES INCREASE THE ADVANTAGE SYNDICATES HAVE OVER MUGS WHEN ROUGH RESULTS ARE PRE-ORDAINED.

What we do not know until a whistle blows is how the decision to pay down to 10th was encouraged by Tabcorp and the corporates and whether this is linked to the corporate  sponsorship of RVL.

........one thing for sure the mugs are being played off a break by inflated fields and rebates on syndicate bets.

The media should be making this very clear -- but there is no free-press in the racing industry.





The only 'mug money' on the table

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-07, 04:33 PM Reply #162 »


.................. the just preceding homily on the role of TAB-rebates seems to have hit the mark.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-17, 06:05 AM Reply #163 »

Back to Flemington -- let us pray

I know it is that time of the year but the offering for Saturday is a disgrace.

In most races most of the horses accepting should not be running at all -- hopefully we are in the pattern where only a couple of runners have a real chance and the rest will just have a day out pretending.

....... just the circumstances where one is smoked in ready to go without warning (and the connections will be praised for a magnificent training feat).

Just for fun -- turn you mind to race 8 -- 15 acceptors to run over 1400m will only be fair if the runners not entitled to be there make no attempt to run fast------- as a clue, consider that there are 3 rising 7yro, 1 rising 8 and 3 rising 9 coupled  with 3 apprentice riders claiming 3kgs.

This is no good -- there is no integrity in the programmingof these races and the stewards shouldmake a clear statement to that effect -- the concept of any horse being entitled to have a run on Saturdays is corrupt.

[Unfortunately things are no better elsewhere -- chock a block fields nationally in races of varying grade and random outcomes likely to be common.]


Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-May-17, 08:51 AM Reply #164 »
Now the idiot wants to regulate how fast horses are allowed to run  :lol:

FFS, do a speed map you fool
Just keep proving what a goose you are  :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-17, 05:56 PM Reply #165 »


------------my thinking is that the filler horses will not see where the fast ones went.

It may be a repeat of the story for the last couple of weeks -- the favourites win as the onlycapable runnersin the fields.

One angle to watch is if horses unlikely to even run 10th are scratched -- a message for RVL.

I may well extend my cautions to include those likely to be scratched based on pre-post prices.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-18, 05:29 AM Reply #166 »

----------- no-surprise scratchings

R2 (9,10) -- R3 (3 6 9 12 13 16) -- R4 (4 8 12 13 14) -- R5 (2 11 12) -- R6 (3 8 13) -- R7 (12 14 15 16)
-- R8 (2 910 11) --R9 (11 12 15 16)

..... see how we go!

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-May-20, 04:01 AM Reply #167 »

...... the horses went well.........I was well wide of the mark

Horses running better than 11th yesterday included most that were suggested scratchings and ran into the money at very long odds  -- a 200/1, 2 at 100/1, anhd 5 at bwetween 40/1and 80/1.

No wonder they line up for a run where there is enough for a good feed after all expenses are paid for the day.

That is an explanation but no excuse for cluttering fields with runners more likely to impede a fair race than to contribute usefully.

We expect product quality control everywhere bar racing.

[........and check out the Goodwood .......an F4 of some $100,000 in the wake of 20 starters ........ the fixedodds bookies would be LOL alll the way to the bank. The racing media should promote a betting boycott on G1 races with inflated fields.]




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