CAUTIONS FOR FLEMINGTON - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



CAUTIONS FOR FLEMINGTON - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: CAUTIONS FOR FLEMINGTON  (Read 15770 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4331
« 2018-Jun-09, 08:19 PM Reply #175 »


............ most TAB punters would agree... e-nuff, e-nuff, e-fn-nuff

Today was a predictable disgrace -- another predictable disgrace.

.......... F4 dividends of $15k, 9k and 32k and quadrella dividends of $3k and 8k arrest attention.

One can only wonder what is written in the 'staff debrief' of the meeting to 'the board' .

Hopefully, one day, the ACCC will be able to publish the official RVL records of their review of the day's racing.

Does no one at RVL care that its racing is returning ratings of 'rubbish best avoided'.

[The accolades for the day belong to RacingQueensland -- and one can only wonder about the contrast with RVL]


Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4331
« 2018-Jun-11, 07:03 PM Reply #176 »

..........the sounds of silence

Hopefully the realization is growing about -- Melbourne metropolitan racing equals predictably rough results.

Three of the four 'very rough' F4s on Saturday were run up the Flemington straight -- one was for 2yos and one for 3 yros -- the worst were the two 1000 m races -- returning, in NSW, $35k and $47k.

This is unacceptable.

........rough results in any one of the quadrella races mean that most punters lose ........ and a few syndicate punters take the pool .....on Saturday the main Victorian quadrella pool nationally would have exceeded $2million.

One might hope that the KPIs for the new chief steward at RVL will include active management of the integrity of the race programme -- including an entitlement to cull the fields of acceptors not capable of being competitive.

There is more to managing the integrity of racing than finding  rare 'doping' offences indicative of the insanity of the perpetrators -- inflated fields wreck the integrity of the races, predictably.


Offline gunbower

  • Group3
  • User 2463
  • Posts: 781
« 2018-Jun-11, 07:54 PM Reply #177 »
"the sounds of silence " Really
Everyone has worked out that you are a complete dingbat . So anything you post is just garbage. No one cares. Surely you must get it.

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4331
« 2018-Jun-11, 09:29 PM Reply #178 »


Did you win gunner -- I do not think so?

 gunbower
Blah, Blah, Blah


________________________________________
 Peter Mair


Money and mouth gunner -- bet, bet, bet

                                                                           c u Saturday.

If I can say on Wednesday -- be cautious -- it is a big call to say 'no way' and then double down on a dumb call.

As the gunner says  -- 'Surely you must get it'

Others will be getting it -- slowly but surely

Why would anyone bet on inflated fields of inexperienced 2 and 3 yros?


Me telling the truth is not the problem!

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1006
« 2018-Jun-11, 09:35 PM Reply #179 »
Pete you say the results are "predictably rough results." your own words? and complain that you want it predictable?.....WTF?.....you predicted it and are still not happy...again WTF?

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4331
« 2018-Jun-11, 09:38 PM Reply #180 »


..... why are dave and the gunner fellow travellers.. both would be lamenting betting on Saturday.

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1006
« 2018-Jun-11, 09:46 PM Reply #181 »
Pete ya just gotta learn some facts.........those that punt on the TAB are a few sandwiches short of a Picnic, they already assume they can't win and even if you could give them Sundays papers with all the results in them......they would still lose.......cos they deserve to lose, they are lazy and stupid....how else could you explain why a person would continue doing the same thing and always getting the same results?......and those that know how to win neither need nor want your advice.......

Like a famous Trainer once said....he never gives Jockeys any instructions........cos Good Jockeys don't need instructions......and bad Jockeys can't follow instructions....so he was smart enough to save himself the aggravation.....Why don't you do the same? The reality is you are yet to help anyone....even if you were right........and that is drawing a Long Bow!

Pete I win regardless of the results.....cos I know how!

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25543
« 2018-Jun-12, 05:14 PM Reply #182 »
Hey Mair
Why didn't you back Choysa at the juicy odds?

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4331
« 2018-Jun-12, 07:38 PM Reply #183 »


......................metropolitan racing in Melbourne cannot be trusted........ as you know!

Offline gunbower

  • Group3
  • User 2463
  • Posts: 781
« 2018-Jun-12, 08:06 PM Reply #184 »
Dave , Loved your quote about the trainer. Remember it well . It was Dr Geoff Chapman after he was interviewed when a very good horse of his ; Dr Grace won a race in Melbourne. It was ridden by Shane Dye .  He was asked what instructions he gave Dye. He responded in the manner you reported. I agree , not much can be done for Mair. Sounds like he is past help.

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25543
« 2018-Jun-12, 08:09 PM Reply #185 »

......................metropolitan racing in Melbourne cannot be trusted........ as you know!

Canít answer the question yet again, weak as piss

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4331
« 2018-Jun-20, 04:53 PM Reply #186 »

You tell me

Hopefully this link will call up the acceptances for Saturday,

http://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2018Jun23,VIC,Flemington

Check it out -- consider the number of runners with benchmark ratings that do not warrant the minimum weight -- reflect on the prospects for a fair race in the three 1400m races....... and so on.

Possibly the uneven fields mean that the 'top weights' will be advantaged and others are just there for a run, but unless the 'winners' go to the front, there is a risk of being crowded out in the run to the line.

I do not see how this program reflects well on RVL.

 


Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1006
« 2018-Jun-21, 01:18 PM Reply #187 »
Pete what is your agenda? What are you trying to achieve? you are just rehashing old news, anyone who was going to listen to your view already has it..........you can stop now.....just take a pill and relax....you have done your job, Humanity is safe now thanks to you

Offline bascoe

  • Open
  • User 2568
  • Posts: 122
« 2018-Jun-21, 01:32 PM Reply #188 »
Pete what is your agenda? What are you trying to achieve? you are just rehashing old news, anyone who was going to listen to your view already has it..........you can stop now.....just take a pill and relax....you have done your job, Humanity is safe now thanks to you


Here here +1

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25543
« 2018-Jun-21, 05:58 PM Reply #189 »
Guys, heís agenda is himself
There is a 11 horse field over 1400m on Saturday.....exactly what heís been bleating about yet he still canít shut the F up

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4331
« 2018-Jun-22, 08:07 AM Reply #190 »

Head in the sand does not see the problem

There is no point ignoring the poor quality racing being scheduled by RVL.

Following are the assessments of three races by a respected media tipster.

[On the good news side, coupling clear favourites with speed maps in races 2 and 7 over 1400 m, suggests the favourites will win both -- and the double will pay about $5. ]

RACE 4 (1.26pm): COUNTRY ACHIEVER QUINTON SCOTT HANDICAP (1400m)
Open race. Barriers are crucial in a big field at the 1400m start.
NO BET

This is a deadset horror show 😱.
Verdict: Pass


FACE 5 (2.06pm): HIGH COUNTRY HANDICAP (2520m)
Not keen here.
NO BET


RACE 8 (4.06pm): DAVID BOURKE PROVINCIAL PLATE (1600m)
No disrespect, but thereís a lot of poorly-performed gallopers in this.
NO BET




Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25543
« 2018-Jun-22, 08:21 AM Reply #191 »
No Bet
No Bet
Pass
No Bet

Nuff Nuffs like you should listen to him then you idiot.

Personally, I wont as I have my own brain and may find a winner

Hope you get out of bed today Peter

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1006
« 2018-Jun-22, 10:09 PM Reply #192 »
Pete you just don't seem to comprehend........you have 5 fingers on each hand.........now use them to count up the number of posts that agree with anything you say?? I doubt you will get past one hand! Anyone with even a double digit IQ would realise that you may as well be talking in a Vacuum........if you were a racehorse the Stewards would ban you from even competing at the Picnics, that is how slow you are!..........even the horses you claim are too slow to compete are a lot faster than you


As for some so called expert saying there are "no bet" races........any intelligent punter has many "no bet" races on every card..........that sort of comment is meaningless.......but then you just didn't understand, did you? I wonder why?

Pete we are all Punters here(or at least the vast majority are) we don't need some condescending moron who by his own admission is a failure at Punting giving constant Lectures on who and what we should bet on


Pete may I make a suggestion?......get a life!

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25543
« 2018-Jun-23, 07:51 AM Reply #193 »
we don't need some condescending moron who by his own admission is a failure at Punting giving constant Lectures on who and what we should bet on

Well said Dave  :noteworthy:




Offline pegasyber

  • Group 2
  • User 909
  • Posts: 1478
« 2018-Jun-23, 10:32 AM Reply #194 »
  One must analyse the race as it is; not as one might wish it was derived.  The following is for Flemington Race 2.

 The Computer shows that it is a cautious analysis and the very careful would probably not bet the house on a track that is soft ( 5 )  and the weather is "Showery".

  Just check after the event how the computer went, although I rarely bet on a wet track and the analysis is really for a Good Track.

Quote
VF140817 FL22306F * RACE NAME ID* [ FL22306F  2018. MARES BM 90 HANDICAP,,,,,,,,,, 1400 mtrs]. COMPRUN 06-22-2018. AT 15:03:03 RESULT  [   3  4  8  11   ~   6                ]  F4  $ 1272.00

VF140817 FL22306F * SPL ......... [  1 ] CREATIVITY M ELLERTON & S ZAHRA Jock: D LANE * SPCL JOCKEY *_______S/R[  ! NO S/RATES ! ] ]
VF140817 FL22306F * SPL *TRAINER* [  3 ] MILES OF KRISHAN D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG Jock: F KERSLEY(A)_______S/R[  ! NO S/RATES ! ] ]
VF140817 FL22306F * SPL ......... [  8 ] DREAMS OF PARIS MITCHELL BEER Jock: B MERTENS * SPCL JOCKEY *______S/R[  ! NO S/RATES ! ] ]
VF140817 FL22306F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  1  4  7  9  3  ] [  1 CREATIVITY.  ---  ].[ 4 HUSSY'S GL.  ---  ].[ 7 BLACKTEIN .  ---  ].[ 9 EVIL LIL W.  ---  ].[ 3 MILES OF K.  ---  ].[ ] F4 & 5LOW WDIV E/W BET *
VF140817 FL22306F * LOW5 LRAC SP$  [  1 CREATIVITY.  ---  ].[ 4 HUSSY'S GL.  ---  ].[ 7 BLACKTEIN .  ---  ].[ 9 EVIL LIL W.  ---  ].[ 3 MILES OF K.  ---  ].[]. HORSE NAMES
VF140817 FL22306F * DTL DD WC TKDS[ 21ds  200  3.5kg CF12  ].[ 14ds  100  0kg MP13  ].[ 20ds  100  0kg AV11  ].[ 21ds -100 -.5kg CF14  ].[ 14ds  0  2.5kg FL14  ].[  CHECK FULLY.
VF140817 FL22306F * ACTION INDICN [  [ #1  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #4  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #7  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #9  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #3  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. ] * DROP THE WORST *

VF140817 FL22306F * SPD ORD TABNO [    1   11    3    2    5    4    8    9    7    6   ] T5 HI HIT. USE SPD UPTO 1450m
VF140817 FL22306F * SPD RATNG ORD [  953  942  939  934 902  876  867  864  805  778  ] /1. IN SPEED ORDER
VF140817 FL22306F * AT TRK n DIST SPD [ CF12 BT12 FL14 AV12 FL14 MP13 SL16 CF14 AV11 MV15  ] IN SPD ORD*
VF140817 FL22306F * RQOD SPD RORD [  5.5   5.6   5.8   6.2   11.1   20.4  26.7  28.8  163.3  321.8  ] $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS IN RATING ORDER *
VF140817 FL22306F * AVAL ODDS FIXD[                                                                 ] MANUALLY KEY IN FIXED PRICES SPEED RATING ORDER
VF140817 FL22306F * WMSPD ORD TNO [    11      2      3      1      5      8      9      4      7      6     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  ]*SPL*
VF140817 FL22306F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  969   937  919   910   902   897   887   876   802   768   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 FL22306F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  4.6   6   8.4   9.6   11   12.4   15.1   20   132.2   279.4   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *

VF140817 FL22306F * DTL RUN WMORD [   10   21   14   21   14   104   21   14   20   7   ] ORDER WMSPD. * SOLE LR7DS= [  6 FUDGED W 4Yo. $0/1.  ESP IF TRK SOFT! ] DBL CHK.
VF140817 FL22306F * DDIST L WMORD [   0  200  0  200  0 -200 -100  100  100 -200  ]  DIST CHANGE TO LAST RUN ORDER OF WMSPD. VARIANCES HN/-DDIST=[                 

VF140817 FL22306F * GW$CLASS$ ORD [   1    11    3    6    4    5    9    8    2    7   ].  6 FUDGED 7d -200m  2k  4y]  [ 1 CREATI 21d  200m  3.5k  ---  4y]  [ 4 HUSSY' 14d  100m  0k  ---  4y]  [ 3 MILES  14d  0m  2.5k  ---  5y.

VF140817 FL22306F *  TOP4 F4 FAVS [ FIRST FV=   1     ]. SECND FV=   3     ]. THIRD FV=   4     ]. FOURTH FV=    6     ].USE IN 2ND AND 3RD POSNS IN BIG FIELDS

VF140817 FL22306F * KEY SPEED NOS [   1   +!. +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. =*NK*.  3   +!. +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. 5   +I/C. .]>1.  2   +I/C. 4   +!.  +GW!. 8   +I/C. +TJ!. 9   +!. +I/C. 11    +GW!.] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 6 +GW!.  +!.  4y <. < 1 +TJ!.  +GW!.  +!.  4y +3.5?k < ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 1  11  << 1  3  4  9  5 <<=BDUPL. *BP%P*= 1 <: ]. <<] S/WDual IS [ 1 3.5kg. ] * ]CKCNT.
 
  The Variance horse in the computer's view is N0 6  as it is a 4y old, is the sole horse that raced within the last 7 days and over 200 less metres than the last run, and today is a soft track.   

No 9 was still running when the analysis was done.
« Last Edit: 2018-Jun-23, 12:20 PM by pegasyber »

Offline pegasyber

  • Group 2
  • User 909
  • Posts: 1478
« 2018-Jun-23, 01:08 PM Reply #195 »
  *  FOR FLEMINGTON RACE 7  1400 METRES:
Quote
VF140817 FL72306F * RACE NAME ID* [ FL72306F  2018. HANDICAP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1400 mtrs]. COMPRUN 06-23-2018. AT 12:56:43 RESULT  [   2  1  8  10    ~               ] F4  $7,070.60

VF140817 FL72306F * SPL TJ*COMBO* [  1 ] OZI CHOICE DARREN WEIR Jock: D YENDALL ] *STAR COMBO* F4 MUST !!___S/R[  ! NO S/RATES ! ] ]
VF140817 FL72306F * SPL ......... [  4 ] SAKHEE'S SOLDIER JAMIE EDWARDS Jock: L NOLEN * SPCL JOCKEY *_______S/R[  19  8.7  56  25.7  11 17.2 ]
VF140817 FL72306F * SPL ......... [  5 ] TURNITAROUND MATTHEW WILLIAMS Jock: D LANE * SPCL JOCKEY *_________S/R[  ! NO S/RATES ! ] ]
VF140817 FL72306F * SPL ......... [  6 ] MASTER RESET MATT LAURIE Jock: B THOMPSON * SPCL JOCKEY *__________S/R[  ! NO S/RATES ! ] ]
VF140817 FL72306F * SPL ......... [  7 ] BALF'S CHOICE RYAN BALFOUR Jock: D OLIVER * SPCL JOCKEY *__________S/R[  47  17.9  113  43  23 17.2 ]
VF140817 FL72306F * SPL *TRAINER* [  8 ] MISS GUNPOWDER D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG Jock: L KING(A)____________S/R[  ! NO S/RATES ! ] ]
VF140817 FL72306F * SPL ......... [  11 ] LEODORO MICHAEL KENT Jock: B MERTENS * SPCL JOCKEY *______________S/R[  ! NO S/RATES ! ] ]
VF140817 FL72306F * SPL *TRAINER* [  13 ] GALAXY RAIDER GRAHAME BEGG Jock: D THORNTON_______________________S/R[  ! NO S/RATES ! ] ]
VF140817 FL72306F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  13  1  12  3  2  ] [  13 GALAXY RAI.  ---  ].[ 1 OZI CHOICE.  ---  ].[ 12 ARKHAM KNI.  ---  ].[ 3 MORTON'S F.  ---  ].[ 2 CHAMOIS RO.  ---  ].[ ] F4 & 5LOW WDIV E/W BET *
VF140817 FL72306F * LOW5 LRAC SP$  [  13 GALAXY RAI.  ---  ].[ 1 OZI CHOICE.  ---  ].[ 12 ARKHAM KNI.  ---  ].[ 3 MORTON'S F.  ---  ].[ 2 CHAMOIS RO.  ---  ].[]. HORSE NAMES
VF140817 FL72306F * DTL DD WC TKDS[ 28ds  0 -3kg FL16  ].[ 14ds  0  1.5kg FL14  ].[ 14ds  150 -2kg BT14  ].[ 14ds  0 -.5kg FL14  ].[ 28ds  150 -1kg FL14  ].[  CHECK FULLY.
VF140817 FL72306F * ACTION INDICN [  [ #13  *!MUST KEEP!*]. [ #1  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #12  *!MUST KEEP!*]. [ #3  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #2  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. ] * DROP THE WORST *
VF140817 FL72306F * RQD FXD VAL% [  CHECK FOR VALUE
VF140817 FL72306F * ALL SPLTRJKS [  1   4   5   6   7   8   11  13  ] *SPLTJCOMBO* =  1 OZI CHOICE  5yo.  $       /1 ]  &IS A LRWDV SPCL* ]  COLLECT ALL MENTIONED *
VF140817 FL72306F * HIGHEST EARNER[  5  TURNITAROUND W% 18 52 WITH $ 598825 IS A  7Yo. DS= 14 DDIST= 0 WTC=-1Kg.  * ALL DATA POSITIVE SO COULD WIN * OVER  1400
VF140817 FL72306F * 2ND HIGHEST $$[  3  MORTON'S FORK W% 26 58 WITH $ 523325 IS A  4Yo. DS= 14 DDIST= 0 WTC=-1Kg.  * ALL DATA POSITIVE SO COULD WIN * OVER  1400

VF140817 FL72306F * SPD ORD TABNO [   14    1    8    3    6    2    5    4   13   12   10   11    7   ] T5 HI HIT. USE SPD UPTO 1450m
VF140817 FL72306F * SPD RATNG ORD [  995  969  962 949  940  931  926  916  916  901  886  868  830  ] /1. IN SPEED ORDER
VF140817 FL72306F * AT TRK n DIST SPD [ KE13 FL14 FL14 FL14 CF17 FL14 FL14 SP18 FL16 BT14 FL14 CF14 MP15  ] IN SPD ORD*
VF140817 FL72306F * RQOD SPD RORD [  5.3   6.9   8   10.4   12.5   15.8   17.8  24.6  24.6  40.8  66.2  115.8  313.3  ] $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS IN RATING ORDER *

VF140817 FL72306F * WMSPD ORD TNO [    14     1     13      3      6      8      4      5      2     12     11     10      7     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  ]*SPL*
VF140817 FL72306F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  1018  959   956   952   947   942   936   933   921   913   905   893   864   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 FL72306F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  3   9.6   10.4   11.7   14   16.5   20   22.7   35.5   48.7   65.1   87.4   201.3   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *

VF140817 FL72306F * GW$CLASS$ ORD [   3    8    14    13    5    1    12    7    2    6    10    11    4   ].  7 BALF'S 21d -150m -4.5k  5y]  [ 8 MISS G 14d  0m  2.5k  5y]  [ 3 MORTON 14d  0m -.5k  ---  4y]  [ 5 TURNIT 14d  0m -1k  7y.

VF140817 FL72306F * SIMUL PACE ALL[    1    8    3    5    2   12   14    7   13   11    6   10    4    9   ] *BPT4 [  2 CHAMOI x5 ] *BMVRP [ 5 TURNIT x4 [  8 MISS G x4 ] REL/SPWM. ESP F  1000-1200 USEFUL IN DIST/SOFT(6&UP/DEAD/SLOW/SAND esp. A TOP4 Ln*

VF140817 FL72306F *  TOP4 F4 FAVS [ FIRST FV=   1     ]. SECND FV=    3    ]. THIRD FV=    13    ]. FOURTH FV=    8     ].USE IN 2ND AND 3RD POSNS IN BIG FIELDS

VF140817 FL72306F * KEY SPEED NOS [   1   +!. +I/C. +TJ!. =*NK*.  3   +!. +I/C. +GW!. .]>1.  2   +!.  5    +GW!. +TJ!. 8   +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. 10    12   +!.  13   +!. +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. 14    +GW!.] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 7 +TJ!. <. < 8 +TJ!.  +GW!. < ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 3  8  << 1  2  3  12  13  <<=BDUPL. *BP%P*= 2 <: ]. <<] S/WDual IS [ 1 1.5kg. ] * ]CKCNT. *
« Last Edit: 2018-Jun-23, 03:33 PM by pegasyber »

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1006
« 2018-Jun-23, 01:14 PM Reply #196 »
Peg like wily I am an old dog, too old to learn a new language.....when you post what the Computer says could you add a sentence at the bottom that an old dog can read? i.e what is it saying we should we have our money on?.....I always use the KISS method....the only method I understand

Offline pegasyber

  • Group 2
  • User 909
  • Posts: 1478
« 2018-Jun-23, 01:40 PM Reply #197 »
 Fair enough Dave but remember I was only doing a check on Peter Mair's statement above about the chances of the favourites form his Top Of The Class Form Analysts for Flemington Races  2  and  7 :-
Quote
On the good news side, coupling clear favourites with speed maps in races 2 and 7 over 1400 m, suggests the favourites will win both -- and the double will pay about $5. ]
    :lol:  
.  But here from the computer's Race  Integrity Checker software calculations they were both quite wrong. :-
Quote
VF140817 FL72306F * WMSPD ORD TNO [    14     1     13      3      6      8      4      5      2     12     11     10      7     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  ]*SPL*
VF140817 FL72306F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  1018  959   956   952   947   942   936   933   921   913   905   893   864   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 FL72306F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  3   9.6   10.4   11.7   14   16.5   20   22.7   35.5   48.7   65.1   87.4   201.3   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *

        Just think of the first  " [ "  left bracket  in the WMSPD,  Weight Modified Speed  line to be The Winning Post , and that no 14 has the highest Speed rating of 101.8  and No 1 has the second highest Speed Rating of 95.9  which says  No 14 ought to beat No 1 by  (101.8 minus 95.9 ) =  by 5.9  lengths.   Now no 14 had its best speed at KENSINGTON over 1300 metres, ( KEN Equalisation not correct )  so perhaps overlook that best chance and think of  No 1 as the more likely winner and then look at any horse with a speed rating within 3.0 lengths  of  95.9  which would be  92.9  and that would inclinclude  down to 921 or 92.1.  IE  [  1     13      3      6      8      4      5    2  ]   All within 3.0 lengths of the rating for No 1, have a  chance to WIN and you would still consider No 14  as some chance, but only for a place.
   The Speed Ratings have been equalised by computer  over many racetracks and distances allowing one to compare  race ratings  over different tracks and distances. Sometimes it is right?.   
   The computer then calculates chances of winning ( using Don Scott's method in his book Winning )  and consequently a Required Price for that horse to be a VALUE Bet.  This is shown in the Line  * RQOD WMSPD RO [  3 /1  9.6/1   10.4/1  etc... and sometimes that is useful.
    The System was never designed to Just Pick The Winner, but in effect mainly to show Just how hard it was to pick a single selection as an iron clad winner.
   The computer having generated about 140 lines from three independent systems attempts to develop a First Four Bet starting with likely Roving Bankers:-

Quote
* HORSE NOS [ ]%VAL HILOW. !SELN $20 # 0 NOW! @$0. LR7DS=[  ] TrJkC[ 1   4   5   6   7   8   11  13 ]SPL
*BOX7F4 KSN[  1  3  2  5  8  10  12  13  14  ]BASE DPLGWP[ 2  3  5  7  8  12 ]*LRWD= 13  1  12  3  2   ]
 *DUBL ROV BNKR [  1  3  2  5  8 ] X [SDup 1  2  3  12  13  <<GW1+ [ 3 8 14 13 5 ]* T4FV[  1 3 2 13 ]. {<RSE NOS [ >}
 *TRPL ROV BNKR [  1  3  2  5  8 1  3  0] X [ *I/CCL= 1  13  3  6  8  4  ]*MVRvBnk<<  SPGM  3 5 <[TLMV 12 2 7 5 3  ? 13  +
 T3VIC$  1  13    12  13    ]%VAL HILOW*. KEEP TRIPLS. * SPLRESIDS** [  1  2  3  5  7  11  12  13 ] CRUSHD[ 1  12  2  7  11 ]
 *IN TX2[ # 3 =13 ] # 1 =12 ] # 13 =11 ] # 2 =10 ] # 5 =9 ] # 12 =8 ] # 8 =7 ] # 7 =5 ] # 11 =3 ] <TRY RVBs
 *RvBnkS  { IG  3  8  13 } { IL  1  3  13 } { GL  3  13 } { MI  3 } { MG  3  5 } { ML  2  3  12 }*KEY[ TYPE IN


  However the computer is still trying to improve its selecting.  From this it would eventually select  Roving bankers of 3  and 13 and probably include  1  5  12  8.   IE  [  3  13  RVB ]  x  [  1  5  8  12  2  then maybe  7  11  ]   as residuals.  Not sure I would take that multi with such skinny Pools, nor believe it can blindly make that type of bet,  resulting in a profitable WIN.    Not even close.  Top 7 KSN Line boxed F4,  would have returned for $8.40 a per 1% outlay, a return of  $70.
« Last Edit: 2018-Jun-26, 07:06 PM by pegasyber »

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25543
« 2018-Jun-23, 04:19 PM Reply #198 »
Dave the only thing anybody needs to know is that Mair is wrong yet again.
32 weeks now heís been exposed as a dunce.

Punters were cheering when Miles of Krishna, Barthelona & Chamois Road all saluted

Thatís the only divvy that punters give a stuff about :thumbsup:

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4331
« 2018-Jun-23, 06:41 PM Reply #199 »

The low quality racing today is unacceptable

There is a difference between 'just anger' and ' a just anger'.

There is good reason for punters to express ' a just anger' at the overcrowded, rough-result racing RVL is producing.



BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap