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Combining Roughies and Favourites a little differently - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Combining Roughies and Favourites a little differently  (Read 3107 times)

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Offline fours

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O.P. « 2020-Apr-10, 03:34 PM »
It has been some time since anyone offered some thing new here to discuss or think about so I will put up some selections for a time doing things a little differently.

Each Saturday I will pick 10 roughies ( and they must exceed 15/1 when chosen to qualify ) and 5 favourites and they will be bet on in this fashion using VICTAB odds.

$100 bet in total with each roughy getting $1.5 the win and 2 50c exacta tickets being in market order 1-4/roughy and 5 to 10/roughy for a total of $2.50.

Each of the 5 favourites will have 2 lots of $7.50 or a total of $15.00 the place on it.

The idea is to save or make a small % profit on the favourite place bets while allowing good bank growth from the roughies winning or running second.

For recording purposes the win and place divs will always be the best of the VICTAB fixed or pari prices. By shopping around you should be able to do better than this often so it is fair. VICTAB exacta div will be used but again you can exceed this on occasion.

By combining roughies and favs good bank growth should be possible IF a level stakes profit can be shown on both....

This a Peter Mair free zone in that only fields of 12 or more will be considered. It might mean some weeks I don't get 10 picks.

The roughies will go up a few minutes before they jump  - this is important as prices can change dramatically as the race day goes on. Same for favs.

Looking at The Doncaster say I had 2 roughies being Nettoyer and Star of the Seas I would get the $1.50 win at $45.30 for Nettoyer and no exacta div on Star Of the Seas. My $15.00 place bet on Melody Belle got nothing having finished fourth. Return on $20.00 outlay is $67.95


There is no need for the fav and the roughies to be in the same race what so ever.

Fours

Will provide stats of course - level stakes and compounded.

Some weeks I wont find  10 roughies or 5 favourites to back - they will be caught up with midweek when necessary. Each roughy only gets a matching $7.50 fav place bet so the 10 and 5 are desired figures  - not hide bound ones as that is a mistake in itself.

20      Roughy picks
      
10      Fav picks
      
30      Win out
51      Win return (34 x1.5)
      
20      Exacta out
43.8      Exacta return
      
150      Fav place out
154.5   Fav place return
      
200      total out
249.3   total return
      
39.7      $1.00    roughy place bet total
« Last Edit: 2020-Apr-16, 08:58 AM by fours »

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 12:42 PM Reply #1 »
SR3:5 Oxford Tycoon

Was $31 fixed when tipped 2 mins later $12 so cancelled before they jump
« Last Edit: 2020-Apr-11, 12:45 PM by fours »

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 12:54 PM Reply #2 »
Hmmmm,

Rarely see such a sudden sharp drop - $31 to 12 in seconds.... they left it in for a 3rd.

Means I am doing something right but no bet.

Hopefully that is a rare thing. Market order for exacta purposes will the fixed as presented by VICTAB ties or not.

Fours
swear it ran second - was called as second ....but alas the bobbing heads confused the issue

« Last Edit: 2020-Apr-11, 01:08 PM by fours »

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 01:18 PM Reply #3 »
SR4 :6 Time Is Precious

Innes - give back your riding fee.....   wide the whole way and then manages to run into a backside 6 wide.....
« Last Edit: 2020-Apr-11, 01:25 PM by fours »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Apr-11, 01:42 PM Reply #4 »
After the race, sorry but video watchers would have backed Leale who just won :clap2:$26

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 01:49 PM Reply #5 »
Warracknabeal R4:2 Newbury

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 02:07 PM Reply #6 »
MR4:4 Barthelona

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 02:43 PM Reply #7 »
MR5 :13 Angel Rock

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« 2020-Apr-11, 03:08 PM Reply #8 »
SR7:8 Yogi


Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 03:25 PM Reply #9 »
Fav bet BR7:14 Profit

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« 2020-Apr-11, 03:34 PM Reply #10 »
MR6:13 Kings Brook

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« 2020-Apr-11, 03:38 PM Reply #11 »
NEWR6:4 Sacred Sword

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« 2020-Apr-11, 04:08 PM Reply #12 »
MR7:6 Haki
MR7:12 Midterm

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 04:21 PM Reply #13 »
Grumble grumble - Midterm copped a lot of buffeting to recover and finish like a fav despite the $125 price tag.....

Exacta to come $290.20 gives a div of ( 0.5/4*290.20 ) or $36.27

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 04:30 PM Reply #14 »
Fab bet SR9:17 Funstar

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 04:49 PM Reply #15 »
Fav bet MR8:5 Wild Planet

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 05:09 PM Reply #16 »
fav bet SR10:3 Savatiano

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 05:22 PM Reply #17 »
Fav Bet ToowR2:3 BESTIE

ROUGHY MR9:12 Single Handed

Thats it for the day results later on

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 06:11 PM Reply #18 »
Results for the day - running total kept in header from next week

10      Roughy picks   
         
5      Fav picks   
         
15      Win out   
0      Win return   
         
10      Exacta out   
36.27   Exacta return   
         
75      Fav place out   
58.5      Fav place return   
         
100      total out   
94.77   total return   
         
24.4      $1.00    roughy place bet total   
3.9      $1.00    fav place bet total   

Below par day for the favs - they will have above par days too. YES place divs WILL out perform roughy win divs..... until they don't

A little less buffeting and a different bob of the heads would have had us in profits. Early days yet and when was the last time someone gave you a $125.00 tip than ran a great second and unlucky not to win.

Fours
« Last Edit: 2020-Apr-11, 06:14 PM by fours »

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-13, 01:49 PM Reply #19 »
Hmmmm,

I can do a few midweek too if there is any interest.

PM me is fine to let me know.

Fours

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-13, 03:13 PM Reply #20 »
Go for your life, fours.

This is your thread you don't need PM permission or requests.

Just get out there and do it.

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-13, 03:23 PM Reply #21 »
I did not know if there was much interest!

Fours

Offline arthur

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« 2020-Apr-13, 03:29 PM Reply #22 »
9 races in the Beef Capital t'morrow

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-13, 03:36 PM Reply #23 »
Arthur,

Fields of 12 or more only for this thread though - horses to rather than cows!

Fours

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-13, 03:47 PM Reply #24 »
Sandown R6:10 Atone

Fours


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