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Combining Roughies and Favourites a little differently - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

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Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-15, 11:12 PM Reply #50 »
Hong Kong R6:12 Very Rich Man

Fours

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-16, 12:11 AM Reply #51 »
Stop and smell the roses - tomorrow for me,

Midweek results below :-

10   Roughy picks   
      
5   Fav picks   
      
15   Win out   
51   Win return   
      
10   Exacta out   
7.53   Exacta return   
      
75   Fav place out   
96   Fav place return   
      
100   total out   
154.53   total return   

So a 54.53% profit on turnover was made midweek compared to the ~6% loss on Saturday. Unlucky in several respects but a good result shown over all for the 20 bets.

I will call a halt here as I have achieved what I wanted to achieve already and everything is in profit too over all but that's not the reason.

The reason is that I wanted provide a method for people to consider to handle long losing runs with their roughies.

The favourite results achieved here are only around par for a disciplined bettor ie from 10 favourites over all  7 placed returning 10.3 units only. That is not impressive at all.

But they enabled one to bet the roughies to 2.5% of a bank AND a dramatically reduced draw down of funds. At the end of the day there was only 1 roughy winner from 20 picks and a 5% win rate can mean rather long losing runs. The exacta component doubles that strike rate and CAN return massive dividends compared to the outlay ( eg (0.5/6) x $2000.00 is $166.66 but they are rare compared to the smaller divs of course.


Treating the 2 lots of 15 bets ( 10 roughies and 5 favs ) compounded the  growth of a notional $100 bank over all is 100 to 94.77 to 146.44 and that is in the space of less than 7 days. What would happen over a year if that could be maintained - hint - get a bigger calculator.

Chances are many punters on roughies lose discipline ( if not their betting banks ) during long losing runs - I provide this as a possible solution to that problem.

It won't help you if you show a loss of course on your selections but may slow it down.

Happy to hear improvements from anyone on this approach AND note that in the long run the win return should exceed the place return. If it does not there is a solution...... simply place bets and cover fourth with a first four bet and forget the win component.

Fours
ps totals in top
« Last Edit: 2020-Apr-16, 09:09 AM by fours »

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-16, 12:30 AM Reply #52 »
After thoughts....

While I could provide 20 roughies and 10 faves in under 7 days there is no need to do that.

If it takes you 3 months to get the same number of selections it does not matter. We all have different lives and time for this caper. I have NIL inside info from stables but like anyone I can work out  target races and trainer tactics at times. I was not in the least surprised by Midterm running well at $125.00 the win for example - because I know why the betting mass get it wrong - an earlier example was Black Heart Bart at 100/1 winning. They will keep on happening and for the same reasons.

Some of you no doubt already have plenty of such roughies from your video work and other methods. So you have no excuse to not do better than 44% bank growth in 7 days or 20 roughy picks!

Fours


Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-16, 08:57 AM Reply #53 »
Hmmmm,

I am working too hard - left out the $8.00 place dividend for Bodega Beau entirely from the place div totals - so place divs still rule on this lot of 20 roughies after all.

Updated the header accordingly to include.

Fours
« Last Edit: 2020-Apr-16, 07:53 PM by fours »

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-16, 12:57 PM Reply #54 »

growth of a notional $100 bank over all is 100 to 94.77 to 146.44 and that is in the space of less than 7 days. What would happen over a year if that could be maintained - hint - get a bigger calculator.


Hint-Lease the bigger calculator rather than buy it.  :biggrin:
 


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