Dr Nick has left the building! - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Dr Nick has left the building! - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Dr Nick has left the building!  (Read 2523 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20812
« 2019-Dec-22, 03:24 PM Reply #25 »
Most people who are bread & butter punters believe that  we are entitled to pay for a service.
It appears big money doesn’t. That’s where the greed is

At least the money that PVL rakes in goes back into the game. Can the same be said of Dr Nick or the Corporates prior to PVL shaking the system

Well said mate   emthup

Offline 28.8

  • Class6
  • User 1140
  • Posts: 88
« 2019-Dec-22, 03:47 PM Reply #26 »
Yes mate.

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20812
« 2019-Dec-22, 03:49 PM Reply #27 »
Your out of your depth again

Nick 100% had a runner at every meeting.

They were obviously well known to the bookies and they weren’t betting in telephone numbers.


I was a regular at Armidale races in the the 1980's.

Can you name me one horse or one employee he was associated with please - I have the means to check it.

BTW, you should know that Armidale races were always non-tabbies run on a Saturday except for Cup day?

Same for all country tracks.

Offline PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 20812
« 2019-Dec-22, 03:51 PM Reply #28 »
Yes mate.

Good to see you back mate.

Hope the mounting yard is throwing up a few winners for you   emthup

Offline wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 26752
« 2019-Dec-22, 05:22 PM Reply #29 »
Good to see you back mate.

Hope the mounting yard is throwing up a few winners for you   emthup


I was hoping he’d throw a few 🦴 our way on Saturday but he didn’t deliver 😟

Offline Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 3329
« 2019-Dec-22, 09:10 PM Reply #30 »

I was hoping he’d throw a few 🦴 our way on Saturday but he didn’t deliver 😟

I have never seen an analysis of mounting yard analysts strike rates. My mate told me a story about the Olympics and swimmers. He said majority of the time, the middle lanes will win as they are usually the fastest qualifiers. He said in racing, the fastest horse does not usually win as barriers, weights, jockeys, track bias etc has a bearing on the race. Thus for the life of him, he could not understand how you solely could make a decision based on looks and nothing else.

Offline 28.8

  • Class6
  • User 1140
  • Posts: 88
« 2019-Dec-22, 10:35 PM Reply #31 »
1987 - 2019, that is 32 years rating millions of horses and dogs in the mounting yards around the world off 3 monitors in a fitness %

1 length = 1 length edge for punters and its free and works.


Offline wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 26752
« 2019-Dec-23, 07:01 AM Reply #32 »
Until we see you deliver some proof................. :crap:

Offline Bubbasmith

  • Group 1
  • User 197
  • Posts: 8629
« 2019-Dec-23, 08:35 AM Reply #33 »
Until we see you deliver some proof................. :crap:

I'm with you WOD.

Offline quaddy player

  • Maiden
  • User 2818
  • Posts: 2
« 2019-Dec-23, 09:25 AM Reply #34 »
There was always a Dr Nick punter at Port Macquarie races. He would only have 2 to 3 bets a day with the bookies, but would also bet fixed odds with the tote(TAB)

Offline wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 26752
« 2019-Dec-23, 02:43 PM Reply #35 »
It was probably Dr Nick Kannegieter, a vet for certainly enjoyed a punt going by his days on 2ky  :lol:

Offline Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 3329
« 2019-Dec-24, 06:30 AM Reply #36 »
1987 - 2019, that is 32 years rating millions of horses and dogs in the mounting yards around the world off 3 monitors in a fitness %

1 length = 1 length edge for punters and its free and works.

I need some money for the Boxing Day sales online. After seeing your posts regarding your strike rates, I believe I found my secret Santa.

Can you post your tips for Sydney and Melbourne on Boxing Day prior to the race commencing so I can replenish my stockings with the winnings from your tips.

I promise to donate to charities too with the excess winnings from your tips as I only want a new tv to watch the sport and golf clubs.

Thanks Santa.

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7183
« 2019-Dec-24, 08:25 AM Reply #37 »
This is an interesting piece of evidence regarding my allegations about the massive exodus of premium money  to the Isle of Man where the POCT is impotent.

For the Trifecta with a big Jackpot the Isle of Man contribution was a lazy 85%!

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-12-24/VALPARAISO/VPR/R/12

Offline 28.8

  • Class6
  • User 1140
  • Posts: 88
« 2019-Dec-24, 08:36 AM Reply #38 »
FREE and live today for your Xmas turkey.

Tips 3-6 minutes before the race  LIVE from the mounting yards.


Offline 28.8

  • Class6
  • User 1140
  • Posts: 88
« 2019-Dec-24, 08:38 AM Reply #39 »
Possibility NSW racing may help out DR NICK

It's an amazing story.

Offline nemisis

  • Group3
  • User 2461
  • Posts: 943
« 2019-Dec-24, 09:28 AM Reply #40 »
This is an interesting piece of evidence regarding my allegations about the massive exodus of premium money  to the Isle of Man where the POCT is impotent.

For the Trifecta with a big Jackpot the Isle of Man contribution was a lazy 85%!

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-12-24/VALPARAISO/VPR/R/12
Thanks for posting this stuff jfc........very enlightening!

Not sure who would be taking a pick 4 in this but the TAB taking $12.04 from a $38 pool ........certainly not the advertised 23%.........close to 32%
« Last Edit: 2019-Dec-24, 11:13 AM by nemisis »

Offline banthewhip

  • Maiden
  • User 2872
  • Posts: 1
« 2019-Dec-24, 12:48 PM Reply #41 »
This is an interesting piece of evidence regarding my allegations about the massive exodus of premium money  to the Isle of Man where the POCT is impotent.

For the Trifecta with a big Jackpot the Isle of Man contribution was a lazy 85%!

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-12-24/VALPARAISO/VPR/R/12
how do you see the breakdown of where turnover is from?

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7183
« 2019-Dec-24, 02:09 PM Reply #42 »
Go to any NSW track betting today and ask them for a Trifecta Trends ticket.

If you repeat this until someone has a clue what you're on about you should get the data below - but formatted better.

The bold fields are

21507.19 New Trifecta money
6078.40 Jackpot
15 % of local money.

The inferred non-local money of 85% can only be from the Isle of Man.

Note that the $8.40 about the winner through the Trifecta is rubbish because the massive Isle of Man investments are invisible.


"TRIFECTA TRENDS",
"VALPARAISO",12,"*",
931.00,282.00,21507.19,0.00,0.00,6078.40,"NIL","NIL","NIL",15,"*",
"---","---","---","---","---","*",
5.80,2.90,7.70,9.10,10.10,"*",
14.30,3.70,11.10,11.50,12.40,"*",
30.00,5.70,42.70,26.60,19.00,"*",
5.30,1.70,7.70,8.40,8.80,"*",
21.20,4.70,39.10,23.30,17.80,"*",
4.10,1.70,7.40,8.30,9.90,"*",
11.90,2.90,21.30,14.90,11.80,"*",
10.80,2.70,10.30,9.90,10.60,"*",
20.10,6.70,19.50,16.90,14.40,"*",
5.10,1.90,8.40,9.50,10.30,"*",

Offline Gintara

  • Group 1
  • User 16
  • Posts: 12565
« 2019-Dec-24, 03:03 PM Reply #43 »
It was probably Dr Nick Kannegieter, a vet for certainly enjoyed a punt going by his days on 2ky  :lol:

The name is further up in the thread.

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7183
« 2020-Jan-02, 02:51 PM Reply #44 »
.
« Last Edit: 2020-Jan-13, 02:52 PM by MagiC~* »

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7183
« 2020-Jan-02, 06:09 PM Reply #45 »

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7183
« 2020-Jan-02, 06:20 PM Reply #46 »
How Australia’s biggest punter Dr Nick dominated horse racing bets
Ava Benny-Morrison, The Sunday Telegraph

December 29, 2019 6:00am


The man known in racing circles as Dr Nick sees himself as an algorithmic trader — not a gambler — who “trades” hundreds of millions of dollars a year on horses based on statistical analysis, treating racing as just another financial market.

And he doesn’t do it by flashy big bets, instead making his money with lots of small bets — thousands of computer-generated small wagers every second are ­possible.

The GP turned numbers man can only remember one time in his life when he placed a bet outside of his professional punting.


It was a slot machine at a Gold Coast casino.


“I spent $10 at Conrad Jupiters in 1986 and I thought it was the most boring $10 I have spent in my life so I never did it again,” he said.

“I find the idea of having no idea about something and just putting on money and hoping something will ­happen is … mind numbing basically.”


The extremely private 61-year-old has managed to keep a low public profile in a high profile industry for the past 20 years, despite wagering millions of dollars every week.

But trackside, Dr Nick’s stake in the game is well known. He agreed to speak with The Sunday Telegraph — using only his first name in a bid to maintain that privacy and due to security concerns — about his recent decision to pull out of the fixed odds market.

It’s a decision that has bookmakers nervous, given Dr Nick and his business place $40 million worth of fixed odds bets a year.

But it's a move, discussed at length with Racing NSW boss Peter V’landys this month, he believes will only have a minor ripple effect.

Dr Nick stressed the turnover would be absorbed in the tote — or TAB — market.

“Racing NSW were concerned about integrity issues,” he explained.

“I assured Peter V’landys that neither the tax or integrity issues are behind what we’ve done.”

Algorithmic trading involves using computer mathematical modelling to predict the best stock to trade in, and the best time to do it.

When it comes to horse racing, traders rely on an ­algorithm to price the chance of a horse winning, as ­opposed to a stock price rising or falling.

Because this type of trading is computer generated, thousands of bets can be placed per second.

However, with fixed odds, there is still an element of human intervention: trades made manually either by phone or online to corporate bookmakers who set odds.

When you’re trading electronically with a computer, fixed odds betting can’t be done efficiently because it requires “a lot of handling”, which is why Dr Nick is pulling out.

“It is inefficient and it’s a small part of what we do,” he said.

Dr Nick and his business place $40 million worth of fixed odds bets a year but have pulled out. Pictu Simon Bullard
Dr Nick will stay in the more automated tote betting where the fixed odds turnover will be absorbed.

His business researches and trades in all kinds of markets, stocks and futures, and fixed odds in Australian horse racing represents a small percentage of that business.

The horse racing industry has its fair share of colourful characters and ostentatious identities but Dr Nick isn’t one of them. He hasn’t been to a race day since 2005.

He doesn’t sit back on the weekend feverishly studying the form guide (he prefers watching rugby league) and has no romantic connection to the sport.

“It is a tradeable financial market,” he puts it simply.

Racing NSW chief executive Peter V'landys spoke with Dr Nick about the impact his departure from fixed odds trading would have on the market. Pictu Mark Evans
Racing NSW chief executive Peter V'landys spoke with Dr Nick about the impact his departure from fixed odds trading would have on the market. Pictu Mark Evans
Algorithmic trading involves big data research, Dr Nick explains, and, in the context of horse racing, pricing the chance of something happening in the future.

While his betting activity rivals that of Zeljko Ranogajec, long considered Australia’s biggest gambler, Dr Nick stresses he’s an algorithmic trader, not a gambler.

The annual figures he deals with are eye-watering but ask him about his biggest ever bet and he’ll tell you he wouldn’t have a clue.

“This sort of trading isn’t this leviathan,” he said.

After studying medicine and practising as a GP 30 years ago, Dr Nick, a married father-of-two who grew up in Sydney, changed his career and followed his fascination with numbers.

Easing into retirement, Dr Nick will shift his research focus from financial markets and data to cultural issues and sociology, “hopefully to make a philanthropic difference to the planet”.

Originally published as Dr Punter: Inside the mind of nation’s biggest horse gambler

COMMENTS


eanette
13 hours ago
He bets to win between 0% and 3% of turnover and then gets a 5% rebate from the tote because of his turnover. Example he bets $100,000 on a race and collects $100,000. The tab give him a $5,000 rebate therefore winner.  Good ridden to all of the syndicate punters. Why are they leaving because it is getting crowded for the Tab rebates. The tab should not give them rebates.  Why does the Tab give them rebates because the Tab makes 14% or 15% on turnover therefore still 10% in front with Dr Nick. The small punters fund this scam

thumb_up
David
3 days ago
Doesn’t David Walsh do this, or have a team that does? I expect he is in front of Dr Nick, although obviously Dr Nick is very comfortable!

thumb_up
Daryl
3 days ago
So does he win? What’s his margin on turnover?

thumb_up
Matthew
3 days ago
@Daryl 25%

thumb_up
Double Bay Kid
3 days ago
@Daryl @Matthew Impossible.

thumb_up
1
Mike
3 days ago
Whoeverwouldathunk - I'll have an each way bet on that...................

Beats taking the kids to the park and having to play with them.............

thumb_up
2
MARK
4 days ago
A lot of people here totally miss what he does and how he makes his money. SMH

thumb_up
4
Mark
3 days ago
Mark,

I must have a mental block because I have been around gambling all my life and I don't understand how he makes his money and I would love someone to explain it to me in plain English.

I don't understand how someone can bet on the TAB and make a profit by backing every horse or back a particular horse that wins consistently enough for a punter to show a profit.

thumb_up
Double Bay Kid
1 day ago
Because his markets are superior. He backs a horse at say $8 and he may have it priced at $4.

thumb_up
Eastern Ranger
4 days ago
Scared money never wins on the track!
Winning ay the races is a good bet at 50/50 odds. You either win or lose :)

thumb_up
James
4 days ago
@Vitas @James @Double Bay Kid so it does. How did he practice 30 years ago as a GP if he is not a medical doctor?

thumb_up
2
Double Bay Kid
4 days ago
@James Only the great Vitas can answer that. I was just quoting what was in the article.

thumb_up
1
Vitas
4 days ago
 (Edited)
He didn’t practice 30 years ago as a gp

thumb_up
1
JOHN
4 days ago
Gamblers only ever talk about their wins, never about their losses. Always. Always

thumb_up
4
Double Bay Kid
4 days ago
@JOHN He has won a fortune over the years.

thumb_up
3
IanJ
3 days ago
He probably also lost a fortune too

thumb_up
3
Graham
4 days ago
If he is winning then why would he quit, plus he must bet on the Tab because as soon as you win with the Corporates they kick you off their site.

thumb_up
15
Malcolm
4 days ago
@Graham Not if you are a new better every time. Your computer can be better than theory computer.

thumb_up
Double Bay Kid
4 days ago
He is moving the operation overseas. It is a very big operation with lots of different people placing bets on his behalf.

thumb_up
2
john
4 days ago
Betfair is/was part of his operation. You can make or buy an algorithm on betfair that places bets for you if or when the price is right.
You have to use your data to set the algorithm, but it then operates automatically.

thumb_up
Roy
3 days ago
@Graham corporates use market leaders to help them get 'in front' of the market. Having a winning pro on their books is part of every corporates strategy. This is commonly known in the professional ranks. The punters they do restrict are normally 'low margin' (ie under 10% profit to the corporate) as they more than that profit In taxes because of greedy governments and state bodies. Race fields legislation and POCT V Landys and the VRC behind the exodus and will cost the taxpayers millions in lost revenue V Landys now chairman of the NRL but wont last long at all.

thumb_up
1
GLENN
2 days ago
Yes now you have the story - why is he quitting? The real reason is because people within the industry ( Vlandy's and others) and Government  have taxed the crap out of it to the point it is not possible for many professionals to win anymore and they have no place to bet anyway as the corporate bookmakers wont accept their bets. In the next 3-5 years the story will be "Racing industry struggling"
 

thumb_up
Double Bay Kid
4 days ago
 (Edited)
A very modest bloke and you would never pick him as a racing man.

thumb_up
8
Tim
4 days ago
He can’t be doing that well or he would have retired by now

thumb_up
Double Bay Kid
4 days ago
@Tim I know plenty of people who work or have worked for him and he is doing very, very well actually.

thumb_up
13
Dean
4 days ago
Gerry Harvey,disagrees with you.John Laws tried retirement and hated it

thumb_up
5
john
4 days ago
He's retiring now. That's what he just said.

thumb_up
1
Show More Replies
Vitas
4 days ago
He's a doctor, but not a medical one, and his name isn't Nick

thumb_up
2
James
4 days ago
@Vitas how was he practising for 30 years as a GP then?

thumb_up
7
Double Bay Kid
4 days ago
@Vitas @James It says he practiced as a GP 30 years ago.

thumb_up
3
Vitas
4 days ago
He wasn’t. This article is about 10% true

thumb_up
1


« Last Edit: 2020-Jan-02, 07:33 PM by jfc »

Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 175
« 2020-Jan-12, 04:37 PM Reply #47 »
Yes

I just started watching for DR Nic's mounting yard spotters when the horses are parading, I haven't seen any so far.

Will keep in up to date.

Offline MagiC~*

  • Admin
  • Group 1
  • User 2
  • *****
  • Posts: 14298
« 2020-Jan-13, 02:54 PM Reply #48 »
Please, no names that can identify or wrongly identify  :censored:

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7183
« 2020-Jan-13, 03:55 PM Reply #49 »
His name was disclosed in the trade media.

It would also be known to any number of bookmakers and AJC/STC members.


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap