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Forgiveness - Discussion - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Forgiveness - Discussion  (Read 980 times)

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Offline montecristo

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O.P. « 2022-Feb-16, 08:13 AM »
I hear and read the phrase 'forgive run' a lot in the media and quite often come across it in form guides and 'best bet' comments but wondered how far should you really take it?

Are those who use the term being too forgiving?  After all you might see a horse forgiven for fading on a 3WNC run but what does that mean for a horse that wins from a 3WNC run?  Are you promoting their form?

In my mind the only time I tend to forgive a horse for a perceived poor run would be if they didn't have clear running room to the line and were clearly obstructed from demonstrating their ability on the day.  But maybe I'm not forgiving enough? haha

Interested to hear peoples thoughts on this.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2022-Feb-16, 08:43 AM Reply #1 »
I forgive or ignore runs where the beaten margin is large . Certainly on the back of previous good runs

So many times I get told “ how can you back that, it ran last beaten 20”
Der.,…. There’s a reason for that rather than having every chance in a race and beaten 5 lengths

Offline montecristo

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« 2022-Feb-16, 10:07 AM Reply #2 »
I forgive or ignore runs where the beaten margin is large . Certainly on the back of previous good runs

So many times I get told “ how can you back that, it ran last beaten 20”
Der.,…. There’s a reason for that rather than having every chance in a race and beaten 5 lengths

Interesting.  I had noticed in some of my research occasions when horses were turning around 10+ length margins when no explanation was given for such a poor run or in some cases it was heart arrhythmia or slow race recovery.  Seems like something I need to be adding to the long list of considerations. haha

Offline fours

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« 2022-Feb-16, 10:20 AM Reply #3 »
  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Yes sometimes the very best form reads  Beaten 99 lengths...

Fours

Offline Antitab#

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« 2022-Feb-16, 10:26 AM Reply #4 »
They are animals not machines, I love   forgive runs, means you get 15/1 not 5/1, plenty of room for error at those price points.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2022-Feb-16, 10:45 AM Reply #5 »
Interesting.  I had noticed in some of my research occasions when horses were turning around 10+ length margins when no explanation was given for such a poor run or in some cases it was heart arrhythmia or slow race recovery.  Seems like something I need to be adding to the long list of considerations. haha

It’s why videos should be done before anything else.

Offline fours

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« 2022-Feb-16, 03:45 PM Reply #6 »

IGITUR

Suggest that is very much a forgive run.

The conspiracy schemers amongst you might suggest that was deliberate for several reasons including  betting coup down the line....

Note the fav coped extra well regardless.

Fours

Offline Dave

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« 2022-Mar-09, 08:39 AM Reply #7 »
That is a loaded question, what you have to do is put a value on it, if a horse gets well beaten as fav and next start it is in a similar race and is double figures I would back it, it is not that I forgave it, I didn't, that is why I needed double figures to back it, if it was fave again I wouldn't back it.....nothing to do with forgiving it, some horses like Anemoe always start short odds and get beaten far more than they win, I could never back them, it has nothing to do with the horse itself, he is a very good horse, it's the odds that are offered, Punters always seem to forgive him and come into short odds every time, while other horses fail and punters wipe them, they do it based on emotion, not reality, some horses have "fans" and fans can't see faults, while others are just numbers and punters dump them very fast
as a general rule....
If the Market forgives, I don't,
If the market doesn't forgive, I do

Offline fours

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« 2022-Mar-09, 09:00 AM Reply #8 »
 :beer:

The mob loses so dont do what they mob does in other words.

Take advantage of their folly.

I love Pike which will surprise Gintara.... but I love him as I have had many good collects when his poor value favs don't win or run in the first four.... Just a question of being able to get it right enough times that such will be the case.

Fours

Offline Dave

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« 2022-Mar-15, 03:56 PM Reply #9 »
exactly, if I lose it was because I was wrong and I can live and learn from that, if I lost because I followed someone else, I would fell like a fool and there would be nothing to learn win, lose or draw

Online Gintara

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« 2022-Mar-15, 05:26 PM Reply #10 »
That's why it takes more than reading a form guide.

I find so many 'forgive' or 'be on me next time' as you have to use your eyes - was a horse unlucky? Miss a gap? Travel 3 wide, Jock sit up or was kind the last 100 etc etc etc. Hong Kong is great for it as they can sit up when out of contention.

I have a very small share in a horse that won yesterday, 8 days ago went around over 1600m and it was a very soft ride to the point I was surprised he wasn't questioned. Up to 2200m and is 3rd pick in a 5 horse field (after scr) they put up $5.5  :o he won starting odds on.

There can be so much more than just running 4th, beaten 5.6L last time out.


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