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Form Reversals - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Form Reversals  (Read 3905 times)

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Online Jeunes

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« 2019-Sep-21, 07:02 PM Reply #25 »
Makadanife ran his usual consistent race today.

Online Jeunes

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« 2019-Dec-07, 06:09 PM Reply #26 »
A few shorties in Sydney bit the bullet today. Only 1 fav won today with below favs running well below market expectations.

Race 2: Equal Favs Statesquely and Convinced did not even finish in the top 4 of a 7 horse field.

Race 4: $2.40 fav Mangione not in top 4 while his stablemate Guise won at the longer odds.

Race 5: Waller had the first 3 favs ranging from $2.50 - $4.80 and only one finished in the placings at number 3.

Race 8: Odds on fav Burning Crown finished midfield.

Race 9: Very short fav Outrageous finished midfield.


Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2019-Dec-07, 08:21 PM Reply #27 »
A few shorties in Sydney bit the bullet today. Only 1 fav won today with below favs running well below market expectations.

Race 2: Equal Favs Statesquely and Convinced did not even finish in the top 4 of a 7 horse field.  Statesquely - will need to trial. Convinced- slow recovery but not as slow as those who backed him

Race 4: $2.40 fav Mangione not in top 4 while his stablemate Guise won at the longer odds. No excuses or reason offered

Race 5: Waller had the first 3 favs ranging from $2.50 - $4.80 and only one finished in the placings at number 3.

Race 8: Odds on fav Burning Crown finished midfield. Couldn't lead

Race 9: Very short fav Outrageous finished midfield.  Bled-out for 3 months

Online Gintara

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« 2019-Dec-07, 09:34 PM Reply #28 »
I know they have ridden Burning Crown for speed but one of his better runs early in the career was his 2nd start at Scone where he sat mid field and just blew them away.

He seems to always fire up when pushed forward and looked to be a handful in the run today when he didn't get to the front  :shrug:

Online Jeunes

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« 2019-Dec-27, 04:30 PM Reply #29 »
In her previous start Torajoy races around the field, boots past some established leaders and the hot pot to eventually hold on at 20/1.

Today as a short priced favourite, does the same but weakens considerably to finish last at a distance where she has been placed 8/9 times.

Online Gintara

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« 2019-Dec-27, 07:58 PM Reply #30 »
and was well backed  :shrug:

She was in an ordinary spot although I thought she'd sit up outside the leader instead she pressed on a long way from home.

Online Jeunes

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« 2019-Dec-27, 08:13 PM Reply #31 »
No favourites won today at Gawler while a couple of shorties were beaten elsewhere. Some were beaten by slow pace.

That is the problem with watching races during the holidays. You tend to watch them with more in interest rather than with money riding on it.

Online Jeunes

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« 2019-Dec-28, 12:45 PM Reply #32 »
Race 1 at Randwick, the odds on hot pot finishes 3rd after being blocked in a field of four.

Race 2 Randwick, Kylease who opened up around 2ish drifted to 3ish and finished a well beaten last.

 

Online Gintara

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« 2019-Dec-28, 03:41 PM Reply #33 »

Race 2 Randwick, Kylease who opened up around 2ish drifted to 3ish and finished a well beaten last.

She looked to travel well but was the first beaten. Something must be a miss and she didn't fire a shot and the jock sat up.

Offline Dave

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« 2019-Dec-31, 05:13 PM Reply #34 »
I haven't read all the comments but I get the gist of the thread...I think.......Most punters understand Numbers....but they have little concept of Horses.....or people....especially racing people.......Flesh and Blood does not remain static, 1 + 1 always equals 2.......on that we all agree.....but horses fitness levels can vary greatly, the difference between 80 and 85% fit is negligible, the same with the difference between 85 and 90...or even 90 and 95(of course the difference between 80 and 95 counts for more)......but the difference between 95 and 100 is a gulf.....
there are very few trainers who can really "peak" a horse on purpose on a particular day......but sometimes they do fluke it and the horse wins and even the trainer has no explanation.........
Then there is different levels of jockey skills, then there is luck in running, , they don't race in lanes, most horses do not have a Target race either
Then there is track conditions(believe it or not there are many more conditions than just the 10 they give out) then there is wind direction on the day
my point is picking winners is hard, there is a huge margin of error based on things you just cannot factor in to your "numbers"......I.E a couple of winners I backed recently were Gatting and Black Heart Bart.....they were both triple figures because Punters looked at the numbers in the form Guide alongside them .....but obviously didn't even go back and look at the runs, they were roughies and Punters are lazy by definition.....if you go back into both horses form thoroughly and can't make a case for them you aren't trying....but who does that pre race?? easier just to look at the top tips and assume the winner will come from those at the pointy end of the market.....and many do.......don't back horses because they are long prices, back horses because they should not be long prices....but are......because other punters are too lazy! to look for them......there are many ways to win on the punt.....but they all involve hard work and the time to do it!

Online Jeunes

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« 2019-Dec-31, 06:09 PM Reply #35 »
Dave, you should be posting your post on the mounting yard topic too. Fitness seems the only key for selecting winners according to 28.8.

Offline Dave

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« 2020-Jan-01, 04:41 AM Reply #36 »
My point wasnít just about horse fitness levels, I was giving several reasons why form reversals are rarely real form reversals.........there are many factors that are unknown going into a race, not just fitness levels.......that is why you factor in the ďpossibilityĒ of any of the variables affecting the result by giving it a ball park ďvalueĒ..........as a rough guide say you have a list of criteria with 10 boxes, if a horse is Winx Odds it must tick all the boxes........if itís $5 it must tick 6 or 7 of the boxes, if itís $20 it should tick 3 or 4 of the boxes, if itís triple figures and ticks 1 or 2 of the  boxes, itís a bet and so on........my point is do the form on every horse in the race, not just the ones at the pointy end of the market......they really arenít that hard to find.......but you must at least look for them.......and reprice them after the race is over.......when you see a rough result try to make a case as to why you should/could have seen it coming, rarely has a horse won that I canít make any case for it
And I have made many comments in the Mounting yard thread

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-01, 08:05 PM Reply #37 »
My point wasnít just about horse fitness levels, I was giving several reasons why form reversals are rarely real form reversals.........there are many factors that are unknown going into a race, not just fitness levels.......that is why you factor in the ďpossibilityĒ of any of the variables affecting the result by giving it a ball park ďvalueĒ..........as a rough guide say you have a list of criteria with 10 boxes, if a horse is Winx Odds it must tick all the boxes........if itís $5 it must tick 6 or 7 of the boxes, if itís $20 it should tick 3 or 4 of the boxes, if itís triple figures and ticks 1 or 2 of the  boxes, itís a bet and so on........my point is do the form on every horse in the race, not just the ones at the pointy end of the market......they really arenít that hard to find.......but you must at least look for them.......and reprice them after the race is over.......when you see a rough result try to make a case as to why you should/could have seen it coming, rarely has a horse won that I canít make any case for it
And I have made many comments in the Mounting yard thread


Take note Peter Mair  :lol:


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