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Offline Arsenal

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O.P. « 2018-Sep-17, 09:38 AM »
This thread is for form reversals usually those that attract the attention of stewards who query the trainer sometimes the jockey but can be any run  that falls into the category of unexplained improvement.

Starting  it off with R8 at Doomben on Saturday won by Nothing Box who blew most punters out of the quaddie including my good self when it ran down the favourite Reach For Heaven in the last few strides.

It's form reads 5440X67448 before Saturday impossible to consider.

At its previous run at the Sunny Coast over 1400 benchmark 80 with 58.5 @$11 it ran 8th of 9 behind last form reversal winner Bel Burgess which unlike Nothing Box had been well supported BB's trainer admitted he had bet expecting it to run well and  the stewards accepted his explanation.....in that race Nothing Box was not too far off the pace but couldn't keep up in the run  home beaten 4.6L after given every chance by Paul Hammersley.

http://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/scst/20180901/race/5

On Saturday over 1350 in a benchmark 85 with 55 on its back Nothing Box raced further back than previously about mid field .....  behind a wall of horses turning for home Michael Cahill angled for a run on the outside and once it saw daylight the horse finished full of running to overhaul Reach For Heaven.

http://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/doom/20180915/race/8

What the stewards saw

Race 8: Gadens Lawyers BM85 Handicap – 1350m
NOTHING BOX – When questioned regarding the improved performance trainer S. Morrisey stated that at its previous starts he had expected the gelding to perform well however it had played up en route to the racecourse and arrived in an agitated stated. In addition he noted that the gelding had returned after the race with a wound to one of its heels. Other than that he could offer no explanation.

Watching the replays and taking into account the differences in  tracks class weight and distance I'm guessing that the horse races better given clear running down the outside.

Giddy Up :beer:
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-17, 09:49 AM by Arsenal »

Offline Arsenal

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« 2018-Sep-22, 08:26 PM Reply #1 »
VOLKOFF – Slow to begin. Placed in restricted room near the 700m and had to be steadied when crowded for room by STRATURBO.  Jockey M. McGillivray, rider of STATURBO, was advised to exercise more care in similar circumstances. Stable representative Mr D. Guy was questioned regarding the seemingly improved performance. He indicated at the horse’s most recent start it had been slow to begin and was obliged to race wide. Stewards noted that this was reported by stewards at the horse’s most recent start. He also added that the stable had made gear changes for today’s event with the addition of blinkers and tongue-tie, which he believed aided the horse’s concentration..
http://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/scst/20180901/race/7

At its previous run finished last beaten 4.3L previously ran a good 5th but impossible to back today finished with a powerful burst not like last time.

http://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/scst/20180922/race/5

Giddy up :beer:






Offline fours

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« 2018-Sep-22, 08:44 PM Reply #2 »
Arsenal,

Have made money on Volkoff in the past and I do not regard this as a form reversal. Simply what it has done in the past.for those that do the form.

Fours

Offline ratsack

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« 2018-Sep-22, 09:21 PM Reply #3 »
Arsenal,

Have made money on Volkoff in the past and I do not regard this as a form reversal. Simply what it has done in the past.for those that do the form.

Fours

you could tell this by Fours tipping the horse before the fact 

Offline Gintara

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« 2018-Sep-23, 11:17 AM Reply #4 »
The horse is no slouch, had decent form in the past in WA.

Offline Arsenal

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« 2018-Sep-23, 01:10 PM Reply #5 »
You're a genius fours doing the form before Saturday and finding this one ......this is Volkoff's form sheet......4721537x59.

Giddy Up :beer:

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Sep-23, 01:32 PM Reply #6 »
Yeah, and all the runs listed before the spell were in Black Type races with the Win & 5th (beaten 2lengths) being over 1000m.


Offline fours

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« 2018-Sep-23, 06:48 PM Reply #7 »
Arsenal,

No genius required but simply recognition of a horse coming into fitness .... just like prior preps.

Fours

Offline Spudda028

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« 2018-Sep-25, 09:05 AM Reply #8 »
No mention of trainer Brian Guy who admitted he trialled the gear change- blinkers on almost in desperation??? Course not....   :whistle:

Offline fours

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« 2018-Sep-25, 01:27 PM Reply #9 »
Also not mentioned....

1) Volkoff has only finished worse than 1.7 lengths frm the winner 3rd up from a spell 1 time in its career; generally it is the winner or in the quinella.

2) last time the horse dropped from 1200m to 1000m during a prep it won a listed race - todays race a lower class affair.

Honestly how many Peter Mairs ae there? Do you really need a horse to have won its last start by 4 lengths to consider it  a chance - if so than I am sure you are loved by the bookies....

Fours



Offline Arsenal

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« 2018-Sep-25, 08:14 PM Reply #10 »
Fours You can go back as far as you like to explain why or if you considered it a winning chance ......most punters didn't .. hindsight is a wonderful attribute .......the fact is Volkoff ran last at its previous start.......on Saturday  it improved its own weight to win  ...the stewards identified it as a reversal of form and sought an explanation which was posted in the originating post...I don't need half smart sarcastic comments from you or anyone else...you're free to disagree next time there's another reversal.

Giddy Up  :beer:

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Sep-25, 09:40 PM Reply #11 »
Yes, it finished last at its previous start and won on Saturday. That is a reversal. The question is if there were factors in the form that could indicate a reversal was feasible on Saturday. I think the answer to that is clearly yes. It's then up to the punter to decide if the price on offer is sufficient reward for that probability. There's enough in the form to suggest it wasn't that difficult to consider the 20/1 on offer value.

Offline fours

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« 2018-Sep-25, 10:47 PM Reply #12 »
On Hindsight,

Those that claim the information I referred to is not available before the race simply don't do the form as well!

Clearly the information was always available for all to see that simply took the time to do so.

Bubba referred to one comp where Betupbob came second with around 50 units profit - much more units profit than is normally the case for the winner let alone second place. I caught and over took Betupbob despite being some 50 units behind him with 'hindsight' tips just like Volkoff.

But go on.... continue to deny reality and claim such things are only possible in hind sight. Continue to claim that the information is insider knowledge or hidden - I am sure you will feel better for doing so.

Fours
ps I am participating in the current comp - not trying to win it necessarily - why - my focus is on exotics these days and not win or place betting. Jims Punting got a blow by blow PM account of my chase of Betupbob - the BEFORE SIGHT can actually be confirmed over months rather than one fluke.
pps My post was designed to provide insight and be helpful - the thanks I get is to be called a smart arse only capable of making after the race comments. Try asking different questions to the ones currently leading you astray when doing the form. Einstein asked different questions about the same issues - different questions than his peers.
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-25, 10:52 PM by fours »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-26, 08:33 AM Reply #13 »
It appears that you guys are arguing over the term "reversal"

I reckon you're both right. It was a reversal to  it's previous run but as 4s has pointed out, perfectly logical.

As to claims of hindsight, well that's a rubbish argument I reckon. The numbers and vision is there for us all to see prior to the race. Once again as 4s pointed out most punters are too time poor to do that. Often that includes me :tears:

Offline fours

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« 2018-Sep-30, 04:06 PM Reply #14 »
All,

If you don't think that legtimate 10/1, or much shorter, pops don't get sent out at >30/1 ( beyond 60/1 in fact ) have a look at these stats for an

Open 1100m race at  Caulfield today

1) the horse has a career place strike rate of 81% from 21 starts

2) the horse has finished within 0.6 lengths of the winner or won 5 of it's last 6 starts

3) remembering todays race is only an Open class race 3 of those 6 starts  were in Group 2 or Group 3 races and was in the quinella evey time!

4) the horse has never failed to finish in the placings at the track, or at the the class of this race

5) a good track today and the stats for that are 18:8:7

6) the distance range today stats are 18:9:5

7) ave $ of $19,379 - almost line ball with the3 4/1 favs

So what price did this donkey start at  - a mere 40/1

Only finished 4th but thats fine for FF punters - I was walking on the beach so I dont know if the apprentice did good or bad or whether the horses prices were manipulated BUT I do know many many many punters simply can't do the form to allow this.

Fours
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-30, 04:32 PM by fours »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-01, 10:17 AM Reply #15 »
Well spotted 4s.

I backed Cool Passion as well. The price was moronic. You only had to go back 3 starts to her slashing run in the G2 Tristarc and see the names she beat home :bulb:

Offline fours

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« 2018-Oct-01, 10:45 AM Reply #16 »
Wily,

It happens almost every day. Just maybe not as starkly.

The manipulators have a 'type' they like to move to he wrong price area. Those that do lots of work will see this eventually.

Fours

Offline Arsenal

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« 2019-Sep-01, 04:27 PM Reply #17 »
Having to depend on the CM for explanations such as they are when stewards report zilch on form reversals is most unsatisfactory ...Mackdaknife was a last to first win beaten 10L after having the run of the race a week ago ...yesty he grows a leg and the stewards didn't bother asking for an explanation ..... they questioned the rider after it ran last at the Gold Coast last week but didn't bother asking how in the space of a week it could go from last to first .......check out the two runs ....

https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/gcst/20190824/race/1

"MAKDANIFE – When questioned regarding the riding tactics Jockey M. Cahill stated that the gelding had disappointed and may have been unsuited by the slow tempo in the race and was left flatfooted when the field sprinted from the 600m. Thereafter MAKDANIFE failed to run on when placed under pressure. A post race veterinary examination failed to reveal any abnormalities. Stable foreman P. Shailer reported at this stage the stable will review the current campaign of the gelding and if anything comes to light in the coming days will advise Stewards accordingly. "

https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/e%20fm/20190831/race/3


Then there's the Red Chase run which from the side looked very off............  the stewards would have a head on view and questioned the rider they are checking the betting to see if there's anything to find

"RED CHASE – Hung outwards badly at the 800m and was retired out of the race. When questioned regarding the run jockey M. Du Plessis stated that after being wide early he was attempting to obtain cover but was unable to do so and the gelding then hung outwards abruptly near the 800m and proved difficult to control and as such he eased it out of the race. Jockey Du Plessis further stated that at its previous runs he was able to obtain cover and believed that racing on the outside on this occasion may have contributed to the gelding hanging outwards. Trainer D. Forster advised Stewards that the gelding had shown tendencies to be field shy previously and with no cover on its outside may have contributed to the gelding hanging outwards. Ms Forster further advised that she would now spell RED CHASE and trial it before it returns to racing. As such Ms Forster was advised that the gelding will require a barrier trial prior to racing again. Stewards also intend to review the wagering and betting transactions in regards to this race. A post race veterinary examination the gelding to be sore in the off fore fetlock."

No hanging at its previous run when it blitzed a Cls3 at Eagle Farm ...check out both runs...
 
https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/e%20fm/20190831/race/9

https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/e%20fm/20190817/race/5

And then the third of Waller's winner Veranes beat a good class field after an ordinary couple of runs it did look a chance so a win weasn't a complete surprise and  last start Sydney flop The Avenger was too good for So Spirited whose rider got some advice on how to do things differently  probably would have won had she had done it....

https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/doom/20190803/race/7

Stewards need a liven up such obvious form reversals require investigation ...... Integrity is paramount QRIC boss Ross Barnett should lay down the law to ensure stewards are on the ball at all times and do what the punting public expects.


Giddy Up :beer:

 


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Sep-01, 05:42 PM Reply #18 »
These sort of things do happen and  ore often than not there is nothing sinister in it
In saying that it is negligent of the stewards not to as 5he questions

Asleep at the wheel I suspect

Offline gunbower

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« 2019-Sep-01, 06:46 PM Reply #19 »
Integrity is paramount QRIC boss Ross Barnett should lay down the law to ensure stewards are on the ball at all times and do what the punting public expects.

Arsenal , Barnett is a Queensland copper . Enough said . Hardly a mental giant. Most of the stewards from my experience would be flat out knowing which end the chaff goes in . Crikey I remember one disgraced Integrity boss in Queensland telling me he was going to rub out a particular jockey because he sat three wide on one. When his verdict was overturned on appeal you would have thought Santa had died. These clowns have zero idea .I remember the dunce who was the Chief Steward at the time nearly being brought to tears . Sadly this goose has re-emerged in another jurisdiction.


Offline Jeunes

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« 2019-Sep-01, 07:23 PM Reply #20 »
I will throw another horse in the mix from yesterday’s Eagle Farm meeting that will improve next start.

Eagle Farm race 6 no 1 Jagged Edge. 3-4 wide throughout the race after drawing barrier 4. Was 5 wide at the turn. Not a great ride but will improve out of sight.

The staying races in Sydney and Brisbane are a lottery. Most winners rarely back up.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Sep-02, 07:31 PM Reply #21 »


There are very good reasons why racing in Queensland is on the skids .. sliding to oblivion.

Offline Arsenal

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« 2019-Sep-03, 09:25 PM Reply #22 »
Racing website LGHR managed to provoke Chief Steward Peter Chadwick to reply to the wide spread criticism about his panel's failure to inquire into the massive form reversal of Mackdaknife last Saturday what follows is an extract from www.letsgohorseracing.com

"CHIEF STEWARD EXPLAINS LACK OF ACTION ON FORM REVERSAL

QRIC Chief Thoroughbred Steward, Peter Chadwick, has responded to an opportunity from LETSGOHORSERACING to answer widespread racing media and punter criticism of panel’s handling of the apparent form reversal win of the Chris Waller-trained Makdanife’s win at Eagle Farm last Saturday.

This is what Mr Chadwick had to say:

AT Makdanife’s last four starts in NSW, prior to it starting in Queensland, it has performed well in lower Bench Mark races:

14 August: Warwick Farm BenchMark 70 Finished : 2nd  (beaten 1 length)

27 July: Rosehill, BenchMark 78, Finished 4th (beaten 5.7 lengths)

17 July: Warwick Farm, BenchMark 70 Finished 3rd (beaten 1.2 lengths)

3 July: Canterbury, BenchMark 74 Finished: 3rd (beaten 1.2 lengths)

At Makdanife’s first start in Queensland on 24 August, 2019, at the Gold Coast Metro meeting it did perform below market expectations when beaten by 10.1 lengths however it should be noted that it was also in a much higher Bench Mark race (BenchMark 85) than its earlier runs.

At its last race on Saturday 31 August at Eagle Farm when it won by 0.2 lengths the race was a BenchMark 75.

The horse’s performance on Saturday was consistent with its form in races of a similar BenchMark at its recent starts and was not entirely unexpected.

It should also be noted that the Brisbane Racing Club racebook comment for Makdanife was “Down in grade here so don’t dismiss”.

The Chris Waller stable said when questioned that whilst Makdanife’s form was consistent in the BenchMark class it may have also benefited from not having to travel and being in Queensland for more than a week.”

EDITOR’S COMMENT: We appreciate the explanation from Peter Chadwick and whilst not wanting to debate the issue forever we feel it necessary to ask one question that would be on the lips of most punters and form assessors: “If the Waller stable was questioned why then was their excuse not published in the official Stewards' Report.? After all it did contain a report on an inquiry into the failure of a $101 shot in the same race.”

ENDS

Crikey Mr Chadwick grasping at straws by quoting the BRC racebook comment as a recommendation .................".It should also be noted that the Brisbane Racing Club racebook comment for Makdanife was “Down in grade here so don’t dismiss”. while the more likely form guide most punters would have read in the CM advised readers "Failed to make an impression at the Gold Coast last start .Not expected to threaten."

In any event it's clearly a case of stewards failure to keep the connections under notice and the public informed. 

Then there's another comment from a contributor with the unusual name of Unser Fritz who has seen the light and given up punting on QLD races

‘IF CHIEF STIPE DOESN’T LIFT HIS GAME IT’S TIME FOR HIM TO GO’

UNSER FRITZ, who describes himself as an every-day punter who has given up on betting in Queensland, sent this interesting email:

‘I read with interest your story about the marked turnaround in form by the heavily backed Waller runner Makdanife at Eagle Farm on Saturday, and the subsequent failure of what is presumably Queensland Racing's leading stewards’ panel to ask any questions of the connections about the seemingly inexplicable improvement by the horse in the space of a week.

An almost identical form reversal by a well backed horse occurred at the Dalby TAB meeting on the same day, when a nag named Droplet - which had been beaten 6.5 lengths over the same course and distance two starts back, and then plodded in among the tail-enders 8.8 lengths from the winner on the sand at Royal Gympie at its most recent outing - suddenly sparked into life and ran like Phar Lap sitting three wide the trip and winning on its ear.

At least in that case the Chair of the stewards’ panel, Emily Barron, called Droplet's trainer Matt Kropp in for a please explain, and if it turned out that Kropp's explanation ended up being little more than piffle and nonsense, well at least Steward Barron tried, which is more than you can say about the non-effort of the State's Chief Steward in the Makdanife matter.

Trainers can swerve and spin and tell us fairy tales as much as they like, but the simple fact is that horses, like humans, don't grow a leg in a week, so the only inference to be drawn from these two well-backed winners improving 10 lengths in a week (Makdanife) or a fortnight (Droplet) is that something (explainable or otherwise) has occurred that none of us mug punters are privy to, and that's just a crying shame for our grand sport and the confidence in it of the average folk who invest their hard earned on it in the expectation that the QRIC crew will keep it clean.

(EDITOR'S NOTE: The Waller stable told The Sunday Mail it may have been the trip from Sydney that caused Makdanife to perform so poorly and Matt Kropp claimed Droplet’s form before a spell had been quite strong and that he felt her 1st-up run was adequate considering the fitness benefit taken and blamed resentment to the sand kick-back for her flop at Gympie). 

Regardless, many punters believe something's rotten in the state of Queensland Racing right now, and has been been for far too long. If Peter Chadwick can't fix it, or is unwilling to try to at least, then perhaps it's time that the Commissioner started looking elsewhere for a right hand man, because it seems that strange things in racing up here are like the hydra; you can cut off the head by getting rid of presumed villains like Ben Currie, but nothing changes except that for every head that gets severed a dozen more pop up.

I'm not saying that either Chris Waller or Matt Kropp are crook - they and their hitherto slow horses probably just got lucky on the day - but I am saying that the reluctance of the Queensland Stewards to stamp down on these wholesale form reversals is just not good enough, especially when the horses that do the Bradbury or Lazarus are backed as if there is no tomorrow.

Something's gotta give.

It's up to QRIC to determine exactly what."

ENDS


Giddy Up :beer:


 

Offline Gintara

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« 2019-Sep-03, 10:18 PM Reply #23 »
They fail to note that the horse was well supported at the GC, I didn't back it last week but it didn't surprise me that it got that cash.

Offline Jeunes

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« 2019-Sep-04, 07:42 AM Reply #24 »
Arsenal, it is not Queensland that has an issue. In Sydney, we see some favourites drift alarmingly and fail. Usually there is one every week and last week at least there was a reason to blame the track.

There are some stables when the money is on to jump on or watch if it drifts. They usually have a good idea.



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