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Offline westie

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O.P. « 2009-Jan-07, 10:42 PM »
You never know who may turn up here


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Recommend  Message 1 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953  (Original Message) Sent: 21/07/2003 12:46 PM
 
 
Like many on the Forum I do my own Ratings. Weekdays on NSW Country & Provincial Meetings and some  Sydney Metro  Meetings.
I use these ratings myself.
I look for VALUE when betting and find a set of prices invaluable.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:44 PM Reply #1 »
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Recommend  Message 2 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 21/07/2003 1:22 PM
Murwillumbah 21/07/03
Track Dead/Good.
 
Race 1 Cl 2 1000m
 
#3 SUNFAIR (90) 7/4
#5 INFECTIOUS (65) 4/1
#4 SZECHUAN (60) 5/1
#1 FELEX THE MAN (50) 7/1
#2 SQUIRTIE BOY (45) 9/1
#6 (15) 50/1.
 
Win #3 @ 2-1
Quinella 3,5
Exacta 3/4,5
Trifecta 3/4,5/1,2,4,5
 
Race 2 Cl 4 1510m
 
#1 SUGAR FOR JOY (95) 6/4
#2 GREY HOMBRE (65) 4/1
#5 HACHI (55) 6/1
#4 ARAKHAN (50) 7/1
#3 (20) 33/1, #6 (15) 50/1, #7 (20) 33/1.
 
Win #1 @ 2-1
Quinella 1,2
Exacta 1/2
Trifecta 1/2/4,5.
 
Race 3 Hcp 1200m
 
#2 VIVID MISS (110) evens
#3 GET GOING (70) 4/1
#1 MIGHT AND GOLD (55) 6/1
#4 (20) 40/1, #5 (20) 40/1, #6 (30) 25/1, #7 (15) 50/1.
 
Win #2 @ 2-1
Quinella 1,2,3
Exacta 2/1,3
Trifecta 2/1,3/1,3.
 
Race 7 Cl 1 1200m
 
#2 RARE SPARKLE (65) 2/1
#3 KIMBERLEY COOL (50) 9/2
#5 RAP THE ZAP (45) 5/1
#4 SUMMER WALTZ (35) 8/1
#6 (25) 14/1, #7 (10) 50/1, #8 (15) 30/1, #9 (10) 50/1, #10 (10) 50/1.
 
Win #2, #3
Exacta 3/2
Quinella 2,3,5
Trifecta 2,3/2,3,5/2,3,4,5.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 
 

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Recommend  Message 3 of 221 in Discussion 
From: wenona Sent: 21/07/2003 1:22 PM
Hi Gerry, good to see you posting your ratings - I'm back doing 1-2 races in Brisbane each Saturday, perhaps I could post my ratings as well and we could keep a record of our progress - say use one of the tab's final odds - record a bet to take out 100 units on required price if it's overs, and see how we go. If you want to keep this thread for your own stuff that's fine.

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Recommend  Message 4 of 221 in Discussion 
From: dubbledee Sent: 21/07/2003 1:30 PM
If you guys are doing Brisbane races, would be great to see them on the Brisbane Racing - SELECTIONS thread.  The more the merrier.
 
Cheers.

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Recommend  Message 5 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 21/07/2003 1:41 PM
Hi Wenona,
 
Please,  post your ratings here. I'm been win betting with IAS ( Always better than the TAB's) and others with NSW TAB. I try not to bet less that 2/1 (my rule), sometime I get caught. With win bets I use my own formula eg if I rate a horse @ 2/1 and I think it will be 2's I bet say $50 to win $100. But if I rate a horse @ 2/1 and I think it will be around say 10/1 when I place my bet then I adjust its rating from 2/1 to 3/1 and bet $34. I can only have a stab at the exotics early on. And I sometimes find savers in the roughies, again if I rate a roughie say 20/1 I don't bacl it unless I think its going to be at least a 'roll of the board' better than my rating rate 20''s want 25's.
 
Cheers Gerry.

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The number of members that recommended this message. 0 recommendations  Message 6 of 221 in Discussion 
Sent: 21/07/2003 4:50 PM
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Recommend  Message 7 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 21/07/2003 8:48 PM
 
Murwillumbah 21/07/03
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 1
#3 SUNFAIR $40 @ $8.94 =$0
 
Race 2
#2 GREY HOMBRE $20 @ $8.96=$0
#5 HACHI $15 @ $10.22=$153.30
 
Race 3
#1 MIGHT AND GOLD $16 @ $7.28=$0
#3 GET GOING $23 @ $6.73= $154.80
 
Race 7
#2 RARE SPARKLE $45 @ $3.46=$0
#3 KIMBERLEY COOL $17 @ $11.10=$0
 
Outlay $176 Return $308.10 Profit $132.10
Total Outlay $176 Total Return $308.10 Profit $132.10 (75%)

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Recommend  Message 8 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 22/07/2003 12:39 PM
Taree 22/07/03
Track Dead
 
Race 5 Cl 2 1404m
 
#5 SALTINA (90) 5/2
#1 WIDDEN WONDER (70) 5/1
#2 ABSAPURLA (70) 5/1
#3 JOUET PETIT (55) 8/1
#4 MOSBY (50) 10/1
#9 PRINCE MALDINI (45) 12/1
#7 (15) 60/1, #8 (20) 50/1, #10 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 7 Cl 4 2004m
 
#1 KELSPEC (95) 9/2
#3 BLUE ARMOUR ( 85) 6/1
#7 APPLE EYE (85) 6/1
#2 BLOW THE WHISTLE (80) 7/1
#4 LIFT YOUR GAME (80) 7/1
#6 NETTLES (75) 8/1
#5 CASUAL DAWN (70) 10/1
#8 (50) 20/1, #9 (10) 200/1, #10 (25) 60/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

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Recommend  Message 9 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 22/07/2003 9:29 PM
Taree 22/07/03
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 5
#1 WIDDEN WONDER $20 @ $6.06=$0
#2 ABSAPULA $20 @ $6.58=$0
#5 SALTINA $31 @ $7.10=$0
 
Race 7
#4 LIFT YOUR GAME $10 @ $16.78=0
#7 APPLE EVE $13 @ $13.59=$0
#8 CHEEKY WONDER $4 @ $36.20=$0
 
Outlay $98 Return $0 Loss $98
Total Outlay $274 Total Return $308.10 Profit $34.10 (12%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 10 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 22/07/2003 9:56 PM
Wenona,
 
Hi,
Without sounding like an add for Mark Read's IAS betting, but I was just doing a comparision between IAS 'Divi plus' odds and what the NSW TAB was offering. On the 2 races I rated at Taree today IAS came in with a final market at 109% and 108% compared with the TAB's 118.3%. I don't know why any punter who bets on the 'Net' would win bet with any of the 3 TAB's. At 108% the punter has a fighting chance of comming out on top.
 
Cheers Gerry.
p/s I would'nt even bother with the SP percentages. 

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Recommend  Message 11 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 24/07/2003 10:47 AM
Wyong 24/07/2003
 
Track Good
 
Race 3 Cl 2 1200m
 
#1 STRAWBERRY SPY (95) 2/1
#3 PHILADANTE (90) 5/2
#5 ESTAAD (75) 4/1
#2 MONOLOGIST 945) 12/1
#4 (20) 50/1, #7 (35) 20/1, #8 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 6 Cl 4 1350m
 
#1 PUZZLE BOOK (1150 2/1
#2 GOLDWINA (90) 4/1
#9 DANERUN (70) 7/1
#3 NASRULLA PRINCE (65) 9/1
#4 HOT MAGIC (60) 10/1
#5 (20) 60/1,  #6 (30) 25/1, #7 (40) 25/1, #8 (15) 100/1, #10 (10) 200/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 
 

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Recommend  Message 12 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 25/07/2003 1:03 AM
Wyong 24/07/03
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 3
#3 PHILADANTE $40 @ $3.87=$0
#5 ESTAAD $19 @ $14.42=$274.00
#7 ELI $4 @ $31.00=$0
 
Race 6
#1 PUZZLE BOOK $37 @ $8.57=$0
#5 ACT NATURAL $2 @ $131.80=$0
 
Outlay $102 Return $274 Profit $172.00
Total Outlay $376 Total Return $582.10 Profit $206.10 (55%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 13 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 26/07/2003 1:18 AM
Randwick 26/07/2003
 
Track Good
 
Race 1 3yo's 1800m
 
#2 IN A BOUND (100) 5/2
#5 NETWORKS (80) 9/2
#1 MS BOWIE (70) 6/1
#3 (55) 9/1, #4 (60) 8/1, #6 (30) 30/1, #7 (20) 50/1, #8 (15) 80/1, #9 (35) 25/1, #10 (15) 80/1, #11 (5) 250/1.
 
Race 2 4yo + H&G 1600m
 
#5 AZRAQ (90) 9/4
#2 DANGER DANGER (80) 13/4
#4 SCENIC BOOM (60) 13/2
#1 (30) 25/1, #3 (50) 10/1, #6 (40) 15/1, #8 (15) 60/1, #9 (25) 30/1, #10 (25) 30/1.
 
Race 4 3yo + 2400m
 
#3 COMFORTS (90) 3/1
#2 RAHERA (75) 5/1
#4 BIG HENRY (70) 6/1
#1 (55) 10/1, #5 (60) 9/1, #6 (50) 14/1, #7 (15) 80/1, #8 (5) 250/1, #9 (40) 20/1, #10 (30) 33/1, #11 (35) 25/1.
 
Race 6 4yo+ M 1600m
 
#3 FLYING MAHAL (90) 7/2
#4 KURRAJONG MIST (90) 7/2
#1 GO ZIGGY (75) 5/1
#2 (65) 13/2, #5 (30) 33/1, #6 (35) 25/1, #7 (25) 40/1, #8 (40) 20/1, #9 (15) 80/1, #10 (20) 60/1, #11 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 7 4yo + 1200m
 
#3 PATEZZA (100) 11/4
#6 THE NET (80) 5/1
#8 DAMIGOS (60) 8/1
#1 (55) 10/1, #2 (55) 10/1, #4 (50) 14/1, #5 (15) 80/1, #9 (20) 60/1, #10 (45) 16/1, #11 (35) 30/1, #12 (40) 20/1, #13 (15) 80/1.
 
Cheers Gerry. 

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Recommend  Message 14 of 221 in Discussion 
From: wenona Sent: 26/07/2003 10:56 AM
Hi Gerry - I've just done the one today - BR7
 
Deuxieme $3.80 (25)
St Basil    $4.00  (25)
Consular  $14.00 (8)
 
I wouldn't back anything else in the race at the prices around this morning.
 
I'll keep track - I'll use Untab final to determine if bet but Diviplus divy's for the winers - the amount in brackets (to take 100) is the bet.
 
Good luck all today.

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Recommend  Message 15 of 221 in Discussion 
From: wenona Sent: 26/07/2003 11:10 AM
Sorry - the Deuxieme bet should be 27.

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Recommend  Message 16 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 27/07/2003 11:07 PM
Randwick 26/07/03
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 1
#1 MS BOWIE $15 @ $10.57=$0
#4 MICHAEL DA DRAGON $10 @ $16.73=$0
#5 NETWORKS $20 @ $6.23=$124.60
 
Race 2
#2 DANGER DANGER $23 @ $13.00=$0
 
Race 4
#2 RAHERA $20 @ $6.46=$0
#6 IGGY $7.50 @ $16.01=$0
 
Race 6
#3 FLYING MAHAL $27 @ $5.01=$0
#4 KURRAJONG MIST $27 @ $5.36=$0
#8 DEL RIVA $8.50 @ $48.90=$0
 
Race 7
#2 JADE PRINCE $7.50 @ $28.02=$0
#4 POETIC PAPAL $7 @ $20.17=$0
#6 THE NET $15 @ $16.83=$0
 
Outlay $187.50 Return $124.60 Loss $62.90
Total Outlay $563.50 Total Return $706.70 Profit $143.20 (25%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:45 PM Reply #2 »
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Recommend  Message 17 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 28/07/2003 2:32 PM
Port Macquire 28/07/2003
Track Good
 
Race 1 Cl 1 1000m
#1 BRANDY AND ICE (75) 13/4
#2 PAMPERA BULLET (65) 9/2
#3 SENSATIONAL TIME (55) 13/2
#4 (45) 10/1, #5 (25) 30/1, #6 (50) 9/1, #7 (40) 14/1, #8 (45) 10/1 #9 (15) 50/1.
 
Race 5 Cl 4 1400m
#5 SORT IT OUT (110) 7/4
#1 A GUINEA (95) 11/4
#6 BEAU CHEVAL (55) 10/1
#2 (40) 20/1, #3 (25) 40/1, #4 (50) 15/1, #7 (30) 33/1, #8 (10) 100/1, #9 (15) 80/1, #10 (30) 33/1, #11 (25) 40/1.
 
Race 7 T Hcp 1200m
#1 KENNY'S PRIDE (105) 7/4
#3 ASTRALOBE (70) 11/2
#2 CHILE DAPPER (60) 8/1
#4 RAMRAID (55) ??? 9/1
#5 (20) 50/1, #6 (40) 20/1, #8 (30) 30/1, #9 (50) 12/1, #10 (25) 40/1, #11 (10) 100/1, #13 (10) 100/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 18 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 28/07/2003 9:50 PM
Port Macquire 28/07/03
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 1
#1 BRANDY AND ICE $25 @ $8.48=$212.00
#4 GLENROCK FOREST $8.50 @ $18.41=$0
#6 POSTCARD BANDIT $9.50 @ $15.24=$0
 
Race 5
#1 A GUINEA $29 @ $5.96=$0
#5 SORT IT OUT $50 @ $3.46=$173.00
#6 BEAU CHEVAL $7.50 @ $24.51=$0
 
Race 7
#1 KENNY'S PRIDE $45 @ $4.27=$0
#2 CHILE DAPPER $10 @ $15.07=$0
#4 RAMRAID $10 @ $13.57=$0
 
Outlay $194.50 Return $385.00 Profit $190.50
Total Outlay $758.00 Total Return $1091.70 Profit $333.70 (44%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 19 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 31/07/2003 11:10 AM
Gosford 31/07/03
Track Good
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 9 Open Hcp 1100m
 
#1  A DEENA (110)??? 5/2
#4 WESTERN TYCOON (80) 11/2
#3 MISS GOLDIE HAWN (65) 9/1
#6 CAPE HOWE (60) 11/1
#7 COVET THEE (55) 12/1
#2 (50) 16/1, #5 (20) 66/1, #9 (50) 16/1, #10 (15) 100/1, #11 (25) 50/1, #12 (40) 25/1, #13 (50) 16/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 20 of 221 in Discussion 
From: gay Sent: 31/07/2003 1:29 PM
Keep posting guys. Just because there's no response, doesn't necessarily mean no interest. Hopefully if someone were to crack a good collect we'll all get to know about it!

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Recommend  Message 21 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 1/08/2003 1:10 AM
Gosford 31/07/03
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 9
#1 A DEENA $34 @ $5.13=$0
#7 COVET THEE $7.50 @ $21.17=$0
 
Outlay $41.50 Return $0 Loss $41.50
Total Outlay $799.50 Total Return $1091.70 Profit $292.20 (37%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 22 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 2/08/2003 12:04 AM
Rosehill 2/08/2003
Track Good
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 1 3yo Fillies 1200m
#1 JEWEL PEAK (90) 5/2
#4 GODDESS OF LOVE (80) 7/2
#5 MISS BRIGHTMAN (75) 4/1
#2 (45) 12/1, #3 (55) 7/1, #6 (35)??? 20/1, #7 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 2 3yo's 1200m
#2 SPURCENT (90) 3/1
#1 HIPWELL (85) 13/4
#6 DEL ESTE (70)??? 6/1
#3 (60) 8/1, #4 (60) 8/1, #5 (45) 14/1, #7 (40) 20/1.
 
Race 5 Open Hcp 1800m
#6 EL RAPIDO (80) 11/4
#1 JOHNNY REB (75) 3/1
#5 CATECHISM (65) 9/2
#2 (50) 9/1, #3 (40) 15/1, #4 (15) 50/1, #7 (25) 30/1, #8 (25) 30/1.
 
Race 6 Missile Stks 1100m
#1 EXCELLERATOR (95) 9/4
#8 POMPEII (75)  4/1
#2 SCOTTISH PRIDE (55) 8/1
#7 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE (55) 8/1
#3 (45) 12/1, #4 (50)??? 10/1, #5 (35) 20/1, #6 (10) 100/1, #9 (5) 200/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 23 of 221 in Discussion 
From: wenona Sent: 2/08/2003 11:26 AM
Only had time to the first in brissy today and I'll consider these:
 
Empyrean $3.00 @ 34
Weaishe $3.70 @ 28
Yogi's Edition $10.00 @ 10
 
last week invest 27 return 0 = loss 27

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Recommend  Message 24 of 221 in Discussion 
From: wenona Sent: 2/08/2003 3:03 PM
My god - I hope no-one followed those ratings for the first - loss $72
I didn't realise until after the race - and doing my money - that I didn't put the bloody apprentice claims into the worksheet!!!
 
Anyway, nothing to do but wear it and fight back - so I've done the last and I'll be looking at backing these -
 
Glen Monarch $5.00 @ 20
Sponge Bob $5.00 @ 20
Throng $9 @ 12
French Gentleman $10 @ 10

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Recommend  Message 25 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 2/08/2003 9:47 PM
Rosehill 2/08/03
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 1
#4 GODDESS OF LOVE $23 @ $10.39=$0
#6 CLASSIC BLOOM $4 @ $45.00=$0
 
Race 2
#3 SPINNING BOY $16 @ $8.11=$0
#4 TERRACOTTA BAY $15 @ $9.07=$0
 
Race 5
#1 JOHNNY REB $30 @ $4.79=$0
#6 EL REPIDO $25 @ $9.84=$0
 
Race 6
#2 SCOTTISH PRIDE $8.50 @ $37.29=$0
#3 ACADEME $7.50 @ $16.50 = $0
#8 POMPEII $23 @ $7.86=$180.80
 
Outlay $152.00 Return $180.80 Profit $28.80
Total Outlay $951.50 Total Return $1272.50 Profit $321.00 (34%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 26 of 221 in Discussion 
From: matttherat² Sent: 2/08/2003 9:58 PM
Many thanks for selflessly providing these ratings guys, woke up in time to check the maestro's ratings for the sixth at Rosehill and got on Pompeii, cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 27 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 3/08/2003 5:36 PM
Coffs Harbour 3/08/2003
Track Good
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 7 Open Hcp 1600m
 
#9 KELSPEC (90) 7/2
#4 MISS CEEANNE (80) 5/1
#2 TARA EXPRESS (70) 13/2
#3 LAMINATED (70) 13/2
#8 GREEN DANZIG (65) 7/1
#1 (40) 20/1, #5 (15) 80/1, #6 (35) 25/1, #7 (15) 80/1, #10 (30) 33/1, #11 (35) 25/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 28 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameHappy®1 Sent: 3/08/2003 5:47 PM
i like green  danzig  gerry and hope i get  the 7/1
there was excuses  for  his  last run

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Recommend  Message 29 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameHappy®1 Sent: 3/08/2003 6:25 PM
nice work gerry

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Recommend  Message 30 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 3/08/2003 6:29 PM
Happy,
 
Improver with a good pull in the wts, GD that barr 11 cost him. next time maybe 
 
Cheers Gerry. 

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Recommend  Message 31 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameHappy®1 Sent: 3/08/2003 6:32 PM
yeh GD  did have to travel deep  but he is a bit one paced

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:47 PM Reply #3 »
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Recommend  Message 32 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 3/08/2003 7:26 PM
Coffs Harbour 3/08/03
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 7
#3 LAMINATED $13 @ $14.72=$0
#4 MISS CEEANNE $20 @ $6.49=$0
#9 KELSPEC $23 @ $8.88= $204.20
 
Outlay $56.00 Return $$204.20 Profit $148.20
Total Outlay $1007.50 Total Return $1476.70 Profit $469.20 (47%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 33 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 3/08/2003 8:25 PM
Not exactly setting the World on fire when looking at our wins to bets ratio (15%). My long term strike rate over the years has averaged out at around 20%. On the negative side as well, had a few top raters' that have just been a little short in the market to be worth a bet. At times I do in fact back those horses, as I sometimes badly misjudge the final market, even 10 mins before they jump someone asked me about Johnny Reb @ Grafton a couple of week back, I think I had it rated at about 3's and it started 9/4, I thought it would be around 5's. If you bet with IAS you got to give yourself plenty of time to get on. (they can shut up shop early). On the plus side, got some good overlays at around 80-100%, which keeps us in front POT @ 47%, longterm I'm  happy with 10%.
I should explain how I get my bet amounts. I set a target of winning $100, so if I rate a horse at 4/1 and I can get 4's I bet $25. I have Gerrys 'DON'T GET GREEDY RULE', same horse rated 4/1 but betting 10's, now I'll only bet $20 and if it was at 33/1 the bets $17. I limit myself to backing the top 3 per race, excluding outsiders ( things rated 16/1+). Outsiders my rule is if I rate it 16's I've got to get 20's+ to be a bet, 20's 25+, etc etc, but I don't cut my bet so if I rate it 20's and I can get 100/1 I'll bet $5 and i only back them if I haven't backed 3 in the race already.    
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 34 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 3/08/2003 9:30 PM
One other rule, I never bet @ less than 2/1 ($3.00) regardless what the rated odds are eg. rated 'evens' betting 7/4 no bet, call that a 'claytons bet' if there is a runner rated less than 2/1 and the betting is also less than 2's then I only bet 2 others in the race, not 3.

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Recommend  Message 35 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 5/08/2003 1:52 PM
Muswellbrook 5/08/2003
Track Dead/Good
 
Race 3 Cl 2 1000m
 
#1 NIPPALONG (85) 'evens'
#4 DAME TRISTRAM (60) 13/4
#2 DELIGHTFUL SUCCESS (50) ??? 5/1
#6 (15) 33/1, #7 (20) 25/1.
 
Race 5 Cl 2 1550m
 
#2 WHY THE LONG FACE (95) 7/4
#1 SADDLE KING (70) 9/2
#3 BEECHWOOD FOREST (60) 13/2
#4 (25) 30/1, #5 (45) 11/1, #6 (20) 40/1, #7 (15) 60/1, #8 (15) 60/1, #9 (40) 14/1, #10 (20) 40/1, #11 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 6 Cl 4 1280m
 
#1 ESTAAD (90) 9/4
#11 ROYAL MAGENTA (70) 9/2
#2 MR. PROFESSIONAL (60) 13/2
#5 CHARLIE WON'T (55) 7/1
#3 (40) 15/1, #4 (40) 15/1, #7 (25) 30/1, #8 (20) 50/1, #9 (15) 60/1, #10 (20) 50/1, #12 (10) 100/1.
 
Cheers Gerry, 

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Recommend  Message 36 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameSmiley5110 Sent: 5/08/2003 7:21 PM
Thanks for the Muswellbrook tips Gerry. Nearly got both up, but not much damage done anyway. I used Betfair to put my bets on.

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Recommend  Message 37 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 5/08/2003 10:25 PM
Muswellbrook 5/08/03
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 3
#2 DELIGHTFUL SUCCESS $17 @ $8.88=$0
#3 DAME TRISTRAM $30 @ $4.66=$0
 
Race 5
#2 WHY THE LONG FACE $45 @ $4.88=$0
#3 BEECHWOOD FOREST $12 @ $16.39=$0
#4 KING AXEMAN $3.50 @ $62.80=$0
 
Race 6
#1 ESTAAD $45 @ $3.76= $169.20
#2 MR. PROFESSIONAL $13 @ $11.65=$0
#11 ROYAL MAGENTA $22 @ $6.00=$0
 
Outlay $187.50 Return $169.20 Loss $18.30
Total Outlay $1195.00 Total Return $1645.90 Profit $450.90 (38%)
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

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Recommend  Message 38 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 7/08/2003 12:00 PM
Wyong 7/08/2003
Track Good
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 8 Trans Hcp 1600m
 
#2 THIRIO (85) 2/1
#1 JADE PRINCE (60) 11/2
#3 RAMINCO (55) 6/1
#4 (45) 9/1, #5 (40) 12/1, #6 (10) 80/1, #7 (35) 16/1, #8 (15) 50/1, #9 (15) 50/1, #10 (30) 25/1.
 
Cheers Gerry. 

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Recommend  Message 39 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 8/08/2003 12:46 AM
Wyong 7/08/2003
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 8
#1 JADE PRINCE $17 @ $7.70=$0
#3 RAMINCO $17 @ $6.83 =$116.10
 
Outlay $34 Return $116.10 Profit $82.10
Total Outlay $1229.00 Total Return $1762.00 Profit $533.00 (43%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Sent: 8/08/2003 9:40 AM
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Recommend  Message 41 of 221 in Discussion 
From: governor Sent: 8/08/2003 9:43 AM
 
gerry your ratings look to be travelling sweetly but why are you  taking unders again?
Raminco rates 6/1 but you claim the win @ 6.83

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Recommend  Message 42 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameSmiley5110 Sent: 8/08/2003 2:25 PM
Hi Gerry
 
Could I suggest that you use Tab type odds for your ratings to avoid the type of thing that happened with the Wyong ratings. ie
 
2 Thirio $3.00
1 Jade Prince $6.50
3 Raminco $7.00
 
This would be more in keeping with how you bet as well. ie with IAS using Div +
 
Cheers
 
Smiley

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Recommend  Message 43 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 8/08/2003 10:48 PM
Thanks Governor and Smiley,
 
As I have been using fractional odds for all my punting life, about 40 years, with the advent of decimal odds ( I have no problem with them) I've never seen it as necessary to change. One problem betting with IAS ( asit is with the TAB) is they don't give you a very good update on their betting sheet, so you have to use the TAB markets to get an idea of the final pays.With most runners, about 90% you can can quickly see that they are going to be those that are well under ( the majority) or well over ( a few) your rated odds. Those that are well under, there's nothing to worry about, your not going to back them anyway, those few that are well over, its only a matter of determining the bet size, no problem. The problem ones are those that are very close to your rated odds, in this case I call 6/1 anything falling between $6.75 and $7.25, below $6.75 is 11/2 and above $7.25 is 13/2, at times your 6/1's will pay a little unders and at times a little overs, it all evens it self out in the long run, don't forget your rated market is to less than 100%, so you have something (around 5%  in my case) in your favour. I always err on the side of having a bet rather than saying "its unders I'm not backing it" ( I don't mean way unders) afterall punting is about having a bet. 
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 44 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 9/08/2003 12:57 AM
Randwick 9/08/2003
Track Good
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 1 F&M 1200m
#2 BRECON ROSE (105) 6/4
#1 MISS HELTERSKELTER (70) 5/1
#3 RITUAL (70) 5/1
#4 (45) 12/1, #5 (40) 16/1, #6 (55) 8/1.
 
Race 2 Trans 1600m
#2 DOMINE (90) 'evens'
#4 ARIANTE (45) 7/1
#3 WONDER BLUE (40) 9/1
#6 SCENIC BOOM (40) 9/1
#1 (25) 20/1. #5 (35) 11/1.
 
Race 3 F&M 1600m
#2 FLYING MAHAL (95) 7/4
#1 GO ZIGGY (90) 2/1
#4 MS BOWIE (45) 10/1
#3 (40) 12/1, #5 (25) 30/1, #6 (15) 50/1, #7 (15) 50/1, #8 (20) 40/1.
 
Race 5 Rest Hcp 2600m
#2 PRISTINE PARTNERS (75) 9/4
#1 QUADRI (65) 3/1
#3 ROLLING KINGSTON (60) 9/2
#4 (45) 7/1, #5 (40) 10/1.
 
Race 6 G2 3yo's 1000m
#4 SPARK OF LIFE (85) 5/2
#2 EXCEED AND EXCEL (65)??? 5/1
#6 HOW FUNNY (60) 6/1
#1(50)??? 9/1, #3 (50) 9/1, #5 (20) 40/1, #7 (50) 9/1, #8 (25) 30/1, #9 (5) 200/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 
 

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Recommend  Message 45 of 221 in Discussion 
From: wenona Sent: 9/08/2003 2:03 PM
Hi Gerry
 
You're putting me to shame at the moment - I will tote up my losses so far and post this week end.
 
The race today is BR5
 
Glen Monarch $5.10 @ 20
Shamrocks $5.20 @ 20
Feed The Meter $6.20 @ 17
Amex @7.00 @ 15
 
Key to the race is the improvement FTM might make from his first up run - I've allowed 1 lenght.
 
Hopefully I might get a collect today and regain some credibilty.
 
 

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Recommend  Message 46 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 10/08/2003 12:09 AM
Randwick 9/08/2003
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 1
#1 MISS HELTERSKELTER $16 @ $11.13=$178.10
#2 BRECON ROSE $50 @ $4.10=$0
#4 COVERT THEE $6.50 @ $22.08=$0
 
Race 2
#3 WONDER BLUE $10 @ $12.84=$0
#6 SCENIC BOOM $8.50 @ $19.21=$0
 
Race 3
#1 GO ZIGGY $40 @ $4.79=$191.60
#2 FLYING MAHAL $37 @ $10.25=$0
 
Race 5
#1 QUADRI $29 @ $5.51=$159.80
#3 ROLLING KINGSTON $20 @ $7.06=$0
 
Race 6
#1 DANBIRD $8.50 @ $21.39=$0
#2 EXCEED AND EXCEL $16 @ $10.92=$0
#6 HOW FUNNY $16 @ $7.88=$0
 
Outlay $257.50 Return $529.50 Profit $272.00
Total Outlay $1486.50 Total Return $2291.50 Profit $805.00 (54%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:48 PM Reply #4 »
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Recommend  Message 47 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 10/08/2003 12:50 AM
After three weeks of posting results, I thought I would see if I'm getting value or not from IAS. As I said somewhere on a previous post the idea is to win $100 for every winner backed.If I rate a winner @ 4/1 and I get $5.00 and bet $25, collect $125, win $100. So far 'IAS BetaDiv' has been returning an average $149.70 for each winner giving a profit increase from $158 (POT=10%) to $805 (54%).
If you are going to win at the punt you need to get the best available odds, unfortunatly the best odds are not at your local TAB, or with your friendly SP bookie but somewhere else. I don't have an account with 'Betfair' so I can't personlly comment as to the value of a bet through them, but from what I know and from what I've been told the deal for the punter is good, so if you are betting with them there is no reason you should not profit.
Which races to punt on???
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 48 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknameimaufo  Sent: 10/08/2003 1:32 AM
Nice work there Gerry.  

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Recommend  Message 49 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameSmiley5110 Sent: 10/08/2003 2:27 PM
G'day Gerry
 
You are on the right track using IAS if you have to put your bets on early and "guess" at the market. If you are to get the maximum effect from your selections, it is important to use both the fixed odds part of IAS as well as Div+. This is especially true of the shorter priced horses.
 
As far as Betfair is concerned, you will do better on horses less than $10.00 on most occasions. The thing that is not made clear in all the publicity surrounding Betfair in the media recently, is that you need to watch the betting right up to the start of the races. The serious money turns up less than 10 minutes before the current race is run, and you have to be there to alter your bid accordingly. If you price a horse at $5.00 (or 4/1 for us old farts), then you have to look at IAS or the TAB odds to get an idea of what the horse will start at. If the horse is paying $6.00 on IAS or the TAB, then you can put in a bid on Betfair for around $7.00. Then as the race approaches you have to alter your price in an attempt to match the price available. You continue to do this until your price is matched by someone wanting to lay the horse. You may end up with $5.50 or you may actually get your $7.00 depending on the weight of money for that particular horse. It is similar to betting on course really. Most of the time, the betting on course would be done in the last five minutes, as that is when the market comes out to a reasonable percentage, and most horses should ease in the market.
 
Perhaps if I tell you of some of the winning bets I had yesterday and the prices I obtained, it may help to assess if you think it is worth the effort. Of course I backed losers as well, but the same rules apply to them.
 
Mebourne: Snip Attack $7.00 Ashtaroth $2.30 Russian Caravan $8.00
Sydney: Go Ziggy $5.20
Brisbane: King's Coup $3.20 Amex $3.60
 
However, without meaning to bang my drum, I did back a lot of horses Div+, including Adelaide Takook $27.60 and Sydney Western Tycoon $16.50. These prices were not available as far as I know on Betfair. If I had put in bids at these odds they may have been taken, but I can't say with any certainty that it would have happened.
 
The thing is to get what you think is the best deal between the two sites, depending on your time frame and your stress levels.   

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Recommend  Message 50 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 10/08/2003 5:06 PM
Yes Smiley,
I do at times use IAS fixed odds, but I don't claim them here, I also bet exoctics, mainly quinellas and exactas, some trifectas and doubles, with the NSW TAB. A punter should always be looking for the best deal. To 'guesstimate' the final div's at 10 mins before the jump is not easy, but with practice you can do a fair job. I also think it all averages itself out in the long run.
As for 'Betfair' I think  you are correct about the stress that it may cause when betting on racing, but if you can handle that, then its a good betting medium.
 
Which races to punt on???
I've only got 2 rules here,
1 If you don't know the track don't bet.
2 When you look at the field, if you don't know about 3/4 of the runners by name, and a little about their form, don't bet.
Other things to consider are the size of the field, large fields are always harder to rate than small ones. The state of the track, if it hasn't rained for months and then you suddenly get more rain than Noah saw, form can be hard to follow, stay in your ark. Races when you have a number of starters resuming from spells can be very tricky, thats why I sometimes put ??? beside a horse, I think there is a very good chance my rating could be out one way or the other. In yesterdays San Domenico I rated Exceed and Excel 5/1??? and Danbird 9/1???, both first up and maybe lacking fitness, which they did. The betting ring is a good place to find the horses that are not fit, they blow like a southerly gale. Sometimes it can work the other way, a horse racing through it classes can be be under rated. The price of the favourite, if its 10's on and you think its a good thing then maybe that race is worth watching rather than punting on, unless you want to have a quinella etc.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 
 

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Recommend  Message 52 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 11/08/2003 5:58 PM
Scone 11/08/2003
Track Dead/Good.
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 6 Cl 4 1300m
#1 CANADIAN BUNNY (90) 11/4
#2 SPY'S ECLIPSE (90) 11/4
#3 MILLENNIUM BUZZ (55) 8/1
#4 CHARLIE WON'T (55) 8/1
#5 (20) 50/1, #6 (30) 30/1, #7 (30) 30/1, #8 (25) 33/1, #9 (35) 20/1, #10 (15) 66/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 53 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 11/08/2003 6:36 PM
Scone 11/08/2003
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 6
#1 CANADIAN BUNNY $37 @ $4.08=$151.00
#2 SPY'S ECLIPSE $26 @ $8.61=$0
#7 HANG ON SOUPY $3.50 @ $39.30=$0
 
Outlay $66.50 Return $151.00 Profit $84.50
Total Outlay $1553.00 Total Return $2442.50 Profit $889.50 (57%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 54 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 12/08/2003 2:55 PM
Taree 12/08/2003
Track Good.
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 2 Trans 1004m
#2 RAMRAID (85) 6/4
#1 CHILE DAPPER (75) 9/4
#6 CELESTIAL SWITCH (35) 12/1
#3 (15) 40/1, #4 (20) 30/1, #5 (25) 20/1, #7 (15) 40/1, #8 (20) 30/1.
 
Race 4 Cl 5 2004m
#1 SHAGNY LOVER (110) 7/4
#2 BLOW THE WISTLE (70) 6/1
#7 COSMIC STAR (70) 6/1
#3 (50) 12/1, #4 (50) 12/1, #5 (60) 9/1, #6 (40) 20/1, #8 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 5 Open 1604m
#3 ANNSHIN (75) 2/1
#2 NASSALIA (70) 11/4
#5 HER MAN BOB (50) 6/1
#4 (15) 40/1, #6 (35) 11/1, #7 (35) 11/1, #8 (20) 30/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 55 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 13/08/2003 12:05 AM
Taree 12/08/2003
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB
 
Race 2
#1 CHILE DAPPER $40 @ $4.18=$167.20
#2 RAMRAID $58 @ $3.16=$0
 
Race 4
#1 SHAGNY LOVER $54 @ $3.03=$0
#3 LIFT YOUR GAME $7.50 @ $16.66=$0
#5 APPLE EVE $8.50 @ $31.95=$0
 
Race 5
#2 NASSALIA $37 @ 3.63=$0
#3 ANNSHIN $34 @ $8.13=$0
#4 FRUIT DELIGHT $2.50 @ $49.20=$0
 
Outlay $241.50 Return $167.20 Loss $74.30
Total Outlay $1794.50 Total Return $2609.70 Profit $815.20 (45%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 56 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 13/08/2003 10:34 PM
I thought I would post a Table of bet size in relation to rated odds.  
 
My rules:
1. I never take less than 2/1 ($3.00) regardless of rated odds. eg. Rated 'evens' minimum odds 2/1.
2. 'Roughies' anything rated 20/1 and over, minimum odds are at least one roll of the board better that the rated odds. eg rated 20/1 minimum odds 25/1,( @ 30-33/1 minimum 40/1, @ 60-66/1 minimum 80/1.)
 
For those rated 16/1 or less, as the available odds get greater the bet size gets smaller. There is a logical reason for this and if anyone want to know I'm happy to post it.
 

Rated

Bet Range  Rated  Bet Range   Rated  Bet Size  

 1/2

 $125-80 

 4/1

 $25-16

 20/1

 $5.00 

 4/7

 $112-73

 9/2

 $23-15

 25/1

 $4.00

 4/6

 $100-67

 5/1

 $20-13

 30/1

 $3.50

 4/5

 $91-62

 11/2

 $19-12

 33/1

 $3.00

 'Evens'

 $73-50

 6/1

 $17-11

 40/1

 $2.50

 5/4

 $62-45

 13/2

 $16-10

 50/1

 $2.00

 6/4

 $58-37

 7/1

 $15-9.50

 60/1

 $2.00

 7/4

 $54-34

 8/1

 $13-8.50

 66/1

 $2.00

 2/1

 $50-29

 9/1

 $12-7.50

 80/1

 $1.50

 9/4

 $45-27

 10/1

 $10-7.00

 100/1

 $1.00

 5/2

 $40-25

 11/1

 $9.50-6.50

 

 

 11/4

 $37-23

 12/1

 $8.50-6.00

 

 

 3/1

 $34-20

 14/1

 $7.50-5.50

 

 

 13/4

 $31-19

 15/1

 $7.00-5.00

 

 

 7/2

 $29-17

 16/1

 $6.50-5.00

 

 

 
The Table is to win a minimum. $100.
 

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Recommend  Message 57 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 15/08/2003 11:48 PM
Rosehill 16/08/2003
Track Good.
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 6 G2 WFA 1200m
#2 THORN PARK (105) 5/2
#7 POMPEII (95) 13/4
#1 EXCELLERATOR (90) 4/1
#6 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE (55) 11/1
#3 (20) 60/1, #4 (40) 25/1, #5 (45) 16/1, #8 (15) 80/1, #9 (30)??? 40/1.
 
Race 7 Trans Hcp 1300m
#2 SCOTTISH PRIDE (90) 11/4
#4 DAMIGOS (80) 7/2
#11 NORDIC FLIGHT (60) 7/1
#7 THE NET (50) 10/1
#1 (20) 50/1, #3 (30) 30/1, #5 (35) 20/1, #6 (20) 50/1,#8 (25) 40/1, #9 (45) 12/1, #10 (30) 30/1.
 
Cheers Gerry. 
 

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Recommend  Message 58 of 221 in Discussion 
From: maf Sent: 16/08/2003 12:38 AM
Gerry....so #9 Niello gets 40/1      Will you take that each way....
You seem to know what you are doing and are doing well....
I will have a re-think.....Thanks...

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Recommend  Message 59 of 221 in Discussion 
From: matttherat² Sent: 16/08/2003 6:20 PM
The maestro strikes again, cheers Gerry, this is easily the best thread on this forum, can't argue with a 45% profit and climbing, many thanks!  Nordic Flight $20-50 STAB, could only get 18-50 on Betfair but I'm not complaining!  Rated 7/1 by Gerry.  Sounds like he just hung on to win, nice work.

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Recommend  Message 61 of 221 in Discussion 
From: matttherat² Sent: 16/08/2003 6:49 PM
You're not doing too badly yourself today there Woody.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:49 PM Reply #5 »
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Recommend  Message 62 of 221 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 16/08/2003 7:27 PM
Well you put your hand up Gerry, and betting in commodities is paying
great results. Good luck....keep it going it really is a worthwhile exercise.

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Recommend  Message 63 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 16/08/2003 9:44 PM
Rosehill 16/08/2003
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 6
#4 ATHELNOTH $4.00 @ $42.00=$0
#6 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE $9.50 @ $12.44=$0
#7 POMPEII $23 @ $10.55=$0
 
Race 7
#2 SCOTTISH PRIDE $25 @ $11.27=$0
#7 THE NET $8.50 @ $15.88=$0
#11 NORDIC FLIGHT $12 @ $21.17=$254.00
 
Outlay $82.00 Return $254.00 Profit $172.00
Total Outlay $1876.50 Total Return $2863.70 Profit $987.20 (53%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 64 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 17/08/2003 10:56 PM
I thought I might canvas Forumites opions on 'Betting Banks' and 'Staking Plans'.
Many System Sellers and others tell the punter he needs a betting bank, and that this 'bank' should be 40 or 50 times the bet size or it should be $1k or $10k or something like that.
I've never been one to support the notion that a punter needs a betting bank, rather its my view, that what is required is 'WORKING CAPITAL', like any other business, the punter needs cash to operate. So on any day a punter only requires sufficent funds to meet that days betting activity, win or loose. Thats not to say the punter doesn't require a TAB account and/or a Bookie Account as well as  cash to bet with. But what I do say is a punter does not require large amounts of money in these accounts. Hopefully the punter will be a winner and he or she can withdraw money from these accounts at times, and like any business, declare a dividend.
I once read a system which told the operator that he should start with a bet of $2 and have a 'Betting Bank' of $1,000. The $1k being necessary to cover bets required when a long run of outs were experienced, and it went on to say the system could withstand a run of 40 loosing bets before the bank was exhausted, and presumably the punter was broke! It then proposed a 'Staking Plan' that was nothing more than a double up betting method, the more you lost, the bigger the bets got. Its my opinion that no matter how good a punter you are these 'Martingale' staking plans will send you broke in the long run.
There are two staking methods I think are both reasonable and safe. The first one is easy, 'Level Betting', if you are a $2 punter then every bet should be $2 regardless of price. If the horse wins at evens you 've got $4 and if it wins at 50's you've got $102, if it looses you are down $2, no harm done.
The other method I support is 'Target Betting', where the aim is to win a set amount according to the odds on offer, or according to your rated odds. I like to bet to win a minimum amount, in this exercise $100. As the odds get longer I think its reasonable to reduce the size of the bet, this is something I've done for sometime and I've found the returns as a percentage of turnover have increased.
Something I've have learned is no matter how good your rating are, they are mostly wrong. To explain, if a horse is rated 4/1 and odds on offer are 8/1, with the average 8/1 shot have a true winning chance of around 10/1, that means that if your rating are good the TRUE WINNING CHANCE lies between 20% (4/1) and 9% (10/1).  I  found for me over time the true winning chance is about 1/3 of the way between the two, so in this example it would be around 16.5% (5/1) so I reduce my bet from $25 to $20, this still gives a very good overlay if the horse wins.
 
I would like to hear anyones views on betting banks and staking plans.  
 
Cheers Gerry.  

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Recommend  Message 65 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameW_F_A Sent: 18/08/2003 9:03 PM
well done gerry your kicking the bookies butt. thanx for your views on staking plans although they differ somewhat from what i use.
 
here is a staking plan a wise old man shared with me.
 
One bet a weekend but only if its a good thing and nothing less then 6/4 and No each way, lets say we usually bet $100 a week
 
week 1 bet $100 on the good thing, it wins bank the cash
week 2 no bet as no good things, throw the 100 in the shoe
week 3 no bet as no good things, throw the 100 in the shoe
week 4 no bet as no good things, throw the 100 in the shoe
week 5 bet (300 in the shoe + this weeks 100) 400 on the good thing
etc
 
this teaches you discipline and creates an awareness for the value of money, especially if you have passed up on betting for say 10 weeks. by no means does this guarentee success.
   
for those who want to be more active you could run a handful of betting accounts with a lesser amount ie 5 accounts @ 20  and follow the same principles.
 
 
W.F.A.

Reply
Recommend  Message 66 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 20/08/2003 1:08 AM
Warwick Farm 20/08/2003
Track Dead/Slow. (only)
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 7 4yo + 1400m
#3 MUSICAL BEAT (90) 11/4
#1 DE ARMAN (70) 5/1
#2 RAMINCO (65) 11/2
#4 (30) 30/1, #5 (45) 12/1, #6 (35) 20/1, #7 (50) 10/1, #8 (25) 40/1, #9 (15) 60/1, #10 (50) 10/1, #11 (5) 200/1.
 
Race 8 4yo + 1400m
#5 PECULIAR (85)??? 9/4
#1 SWING AND MIST (65) 9/2
#2 DASHING AWAY (60) 6/1
#3 (25) 30/1, #4 (35) 16/1, #6 (50) 9/1, #7 (30) 25/1, #8 (40) 14/1, #9 (10) 80/1, #10 (10) 80/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 67 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameSkybeau Sent: 20/08/2003 1:24 AM
Reply
Recommend  Message 65 of 66 in Discussion 
From: W.F.A. Sent: 18/08/2003 7:03 PM
well done gerry your kicking the bookies butt. thanx for your views on staking plans although they differ somewhat from what i use.
 
here is a staking plan a wise old man shared with me.
 
One bet a weekend but only if its a good thing and nothing less then 6/4 and No each way, lets say we usually bet $100 a week
 
week 1 bet $100 on the good thing, it wins bank the cash
week 2 no bet as no good things, throw the 100 in the shoe
week 3 no bet as no good things, throw the 100 in the shoe
week 4 no bet as no good things, throw the 100 in the shoe
week 5 bet (300 in the shoe + this weeks 100) 400 on the good thing
etc
 
this teaches you discipline and creates an awareness for the value of money, especially if you have passed up on betting for say 10 weeks. by no means does this guarentee success.
   
for those who want to be more active you could run a handful of betting accounts with a lesser amount ie 5 accounts @ 20  and follow the same principles.
 
 
W.F.A.

 

What happens if your good thing doesn't win in week 5 ?  Dip into the other shoe ?


Reply
Recommend  Message 68 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameW_F_A Sent: 21/08/2003 11:52 AM
To answer your question Skybeau

What happens if your good thing doesn't win in week 5 ?  Dip into the other shoe ?

As written in the rules 'lets say we usually bet $100 a week' so we would start again with a $100.

But what you should be doing is asking the question why are you betting if its not a good thing!

W.F.A.


Reply
Recommend  Message 69 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 22/08/2003 11:04 AM
Taree 22/08/2003
Track Good. (only)
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 4 F&M Cl 2 1300
#2 INATIN (70) 2/1
#1 LEICAMORE (65) 9/4
#3 GREYISH (40) 8/1
#4 (15) 30/1, #5 (10) 50/1, (6) (25) 15/1, #7 (15) 30/1, #8 (15) 30/1.
 
Race 5 Trans Hcp 1600m
#1 NASSALIA (80) 5/2
#2 NIGHT TO DAY (75) 11/4
#7 FLYING CROWN (55) 11/2
#3 (35) 14/1, #4 (40) 12/1, #5 (30) 20/1, #6 (10) 80/1, #8 (10) 80/1, #9 (15) 50/1.
 
Race 6 Cl 2 1300m
#1 BULLET EXPRESS (95) 7/4
#2 BOUNTY CLUB (70) 9/2
#4 MAJESTIC DESIGN (55) 7/1
#3 RTED GOUGER (50) 9/1
#5 (25) 30/1, #6 (35) 16/1, #7 (15) 60/1, #8 (20) 40/1, #9 (10) 100/1, #10 (10) 100/1, #11 (10) 100/1, #12 (15) 60/1.
 
Race 7 Hcp 1000m
#4 AUTUMN SHOWERS (80) 7/2
#1 VIDUAL (65) 11/2
#2 GO ERROL (60) 7/1
#3 TROY DAN (55) 8/1
#5 CHILE DAPPER (50) 11/1
#7 ASTUTE GIRL (50) 11/1
#6 (30) 30/1, #8 (20) 50/1, #9 (20) 50/1, #10 (15) 60/1, #11 (30) 30/1, #12 (20) 50/1, #13 (35) 20/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 70 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 22/08/2003 7:29 PM
After misjudging the track conditions at Warwick Farm Wed. Fortunate to come up with a good track at Taree today.
 
Taree 22/08/2003
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 4
#1 LEICAMORE $40 @ $3.88=$0
#2 INATIN $45 @ $3.86=$173.70
 
Race 5
#1 NASSALIA $37 @ $4.17=$0
#2 NIGHT TO DAY $29 @ $6.77=$0
#3 BRIDLE STAR $7 @ $18.82=$131.70
 
Race 6
#2 BOUNTY CLUB $23 @ $6.07=$0
#3 RED GOUGER $10 @ $13.67=$0
#4 MAJESTIC DESIGN $13 @$10.03=$0
 
Race 7
#1 VIDUAL $16 @ $8.80=$0
#2 GO ERROL $12 @ $16.44=$0
#4 AUTUMN SHOWERS $29 @ $4.68=$135.70
 
Outlay $261.00 Return $441.10 Profit $180.10
Total Outlay $2137.50 Total Return $3304.80 Profit $1167.30 (55%)
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

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Sent: 22/08/2003 7:33 PM
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Recommend  Message 72 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameW_F_A Sent: 22/08/2003 8:17 PM
hi gerry
what were the results for wednesday as you didnt post.
here are the prices so you can adjust the figures 
 
Race 7 Potts Point Hcp (1) $20,000 4yo+ S/C 0 win-ly 1400m Apprentices Can Claim Handicap 53.0kg.    3.20 fav DE ARMAN (gr g 7y Bemboka Spirit - Spy's Lass. Trainer: G Portelli) 60 carr 57 (J Ford) 1, 6.50 RAMINCO 56.5 (M Paget) 2, 9.50 GOBI 53 (G Boss) 3.Then followed: 8.50 My Chanticleer 53 (D Beadman) 101.00 Ya Ya Effendi 53 (J Lee) 6.00 Gardener 53.5 (R M Quinn) 19.00 Colin The Brave 54.5 (T Jones) 10.00 Canadian Bunny 53 (R Saxton) 8.00 Kenmaro 54 (J Innes
 
 
Race 8 Potts Point Hcp (2) $20,000 4yo+ S/C 0 win-ly 1400m Apprentices Can Claim Handicap 53.0kg.    8.00 DANERUM (G A & Mrs K M Forsyth's b g 4y Danewin 0 La Rosa. Trainer: R Law) 53 carr 50 (G Scimone) 1, 9.00 DANE HEIGHT 53 (R Brewer) 2, 4.40 DASHING AWAY 55.5 (J Bowman) 3.Then followed: 3.60 fav Peculiar 53.5 (J A Cassidy) 20.00 Perry Can Do 53.5 carr 53 (L Price) 9.00 Swing And Mist 57 carr 55 (Ron Stewart) 6.50 Danny Dancer 54 (D Beadman) 17.00 Aquavit 55 (G Boss) 26.00 Prince Dane 53 (C W Brown) 151.00 Newbold 53 (R Thompson)
 
 
W.F.A.

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Recommend  Message 73 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 22/08/2003 9:30 PM
WFA,
 
One of the critical factors in my ratings is 'Track Condition' and I must apologize for Warwick Farm, I'm on the eastern side of Sydney and WF is out 'west'. After the  rain on Tuesday I assumed the track wold be dead/slow ( one of my track conditions) and rated the fields accordingly. On on Wed the tracks rated 'good', as I was really only interested in race 7, they split the race into 2 div's and the 8th was only a so so field with my top rater Peculiar getting a very questionable (85) and 9/4. If the track had been damp I gave John Morrisey's Musical Beat a top chance to knock over De Arman and Raminco at a bit of odds. Anything Morrisey brings to town usually runs well, and the horse had the 'form' for that type of track, but when it was scratched that firmed the chances of the other two on a good track. I did later rate the 7th to a 'good'  and De Arman 7/4 and Raminco 7/2 were on top.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

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The number of members that recommended this message. 0 recommendations  Message 74 of 221 in Discussion 
Sent: 22/08/2003 11:34 PM
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Recommend  Message 75 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 23/08/2003 1:34 AM
Ratings and 'Betfair'
As I said on a previous post I don't have an account with 'Betfair' so I'm not in a great position to comment on the use of it. What it seems to offer the punter (please correct me if I'm wrong) is the opportunity to play punter or bookie or both, which could be a decided advantage, giving a chance to profit from both sides of the ledger.
The golden rule is:
 
BACK a horse at the BEST price possible......LAY  a horse at the WORSE price possible.
 
Which is the same rule that applies in the betting ring on any racecourse anywhere in the world, well any that's got bookies, that is.
 
How can ratings work in this environment?
On the punting side it would seem straight forward, back those runners that are over your rated odds to win a set amount, avoiding the unders just as you do with any bookie or TAB.
On the other side of the ledger, it becomes a bit more complicated in so far as you have to use your ratings to determine what 'price' you will offer a horse, but also being mindful of what odds others are offering about the same.
How a 'punting betfair bookie' could work. I'll use decimal odds, rate a horse $5.00 chance in a 100% market which is $4.30 in a 120%. If you want to lay the horse, and the best price on offer from other 'bookies' is $3.50 then you offer $3.60, not $4.30, if there are no takers at $3.60 you have to blow the price out towards $4.30 until you get a taker. The second part of the problem is how much liability should one take, using a maximum, at the shortest odds you offer, the liability should be set at the max, but as the odds get greater the liability should get smaller, maybe at the point where you offer the top odds ($4.30) the liability should be reduced to say 80% of the maximum.
 
Any thoughts on 'Betfair Bookmaking'
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 76 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 23/08/2003 10:47 AM
Randwick 23/08/2003
Track Dead/Good. (only)
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 1 3yo+ 2000m
#1 COMFORTS (90) 9/4
#7 DANEBOROGH (60) 6/1
#2 QUADRI (60) 6/1
#3 ROCKSINGA (55) 7/1
#5 EL RAPIDO (55) 7/1
#4 (35) 16/1, #6 (25) 30/1, #8 (15) 60/1, #9 (15) 60/1.
 
Race 7 G2 wfa 1400m
#1 LONHRO (135) 5/4
#2 EXCELLERATOR (95) 4/1
#3 DEFIER (80) 6/1
#4 CARNEGIE EXPRESS (40) 20/1
#5 (20) 80/1, #6 (20) 80/1, #7 (40) 25/1, #8 (35) 30/1, #9 (30) 40/1, #10 (20) 80/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:51 PM Reply #6 »
Reply
Recommend  Message 77 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 23/08/2003 11:57 PM
Randwick 23/08/2003
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB
 
Race 1
#1 COMFORTS $37 @ $4.47=$0
#2 QUADRI $16 @ $8.18=$0
#4 TIME SIGNAL $5 @ $63.71=$0
 
Race 7
#2 EXCELLERATOR $25 @ $5.68=$0
#3 DEFIER $17 @ $6.81=$0
 
Outlay $100.00 Return $0 Loss $100.00
Total Outlay $2237.50 Total Return $3304.80 Profit $1067.30 (48%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 78 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameSmiley5110 Sent: 24/08/2003 12:03 PM
You have hit the nail on the head there Gerry. You can do both on Betfair, but I have only once tried laying a horse to find out how it works. It won by the way, but I only laid a small amount. I do know that you can obtain better odds when betting there as opposed to other mediums. I was on Autumn Showers at $6.80 at Taree on Friday. That's a bit better than the $4.68 Div+ dividend I think you'll agree. I reiterate that you have to sit and watch right up to race time though. It works best if you are watching Sky and can see when the horses are in the barrier. The real action only starts about 5 minutes before the race. You can have a look at betting on the site without being a member.
 
Cheers
 
Smiley

Reply
Recommend  Message 79 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 24/08/2003 3:15 PM
Taree 24/08/2003
Track Good. (only)
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 4 open Hcp 1250m
#5 SORT IT OUT (105) 6/4
#4 CUT A CAPER (90) 11/4
#1 OLIVIER (50) 11/1
#2 (30) 30/1, #3 (35) 20/1, #6 (25) 40/1, #7 (40) 15/1, #8 (15) 60/1, #9 # (15) 60/1.
 
Race 6 Cl 4 2000m
#2 WATCH YOUR STEP (90) 3/1
#1 BLOW THE WHISTLE (85) 13/4
#3 LIFT YOUR GAME (85) 13/4
#4 (45) 14/1, #5 (30) 30/1, #6 (35) 20/1, #7 (25) 40/1, #8 (20) 50/1, #9 (5) 250/1, #10 (10) 125/1, #11 (20) 50/1.
 
Race 7 Taree Cup 2000m
#1 SILENT IMPACT (80) 9/2
#2 LEGERDEMAIN (75) 5/1
#6 KELSPEC (60) 8/1
#3 QUADRI (55) 10/1
#9 SHAGNY LOVER (55) 10/1
#4 DANA'S KINGDOM (55) 10/1
#5 ETOILE BLEUE (50) 14/1
#7 (30) 33/1, #8 (25) 40/1, #10 (25) 40/1, #11 (40) 20/1, #12 (30) 33/1, #14 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 8 Cl 4 1000m
#2 ENTREATY (90) 6/4
#6 CARRY ON BENNY (60) 9/2
#5 CITICHEER (50) 7/1
#1 BELLAROUGE (45) 8/1
#3 GOLD DECK (35) 14/1
#7 (10) 66/1, #8 (10) 66/1, #9 (15) 40/1, #10 (15) 40/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 80 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 24/08/2003 10:35 PM
Taree 24/08/2003
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB
 
Race 4
#1 OLIVER $9.50 @ $12.36=$0
#7 KENNY'S PRIDE $7.00 @ $16.78=$0
#8 HIGHEST CALIBRE $2.00 @ $86.20=$0
 
Race 6
#1 BLOW THE WHISTLE $25 @ $5.68=$0
#2 WATCH YOUR STEP $29 @  $5.92=$0
#3 LIFT YOUR GAME $25 @ $6.13=$0
 
Race 7
#1 SILENT IMPACT $16 @ $14.19=$0
#6 KELSPEC $10 $13.25=$0
#9 SHAGNY LOVER $10 @ $11.66=$0
 
Race 8
#1 BELLAROUGE $13 @ $9.03=$0
#2 ENTREATY $50 @ $3.46=$0
#6 CARRY ON BENNY $23 @ $5.71=$131.30
 
Outlay $219.50 Return $131.3 Loss $88.20
Total Outlay $2457.00 Total Return $3436.10 Profit $979.10 (40%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 81 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 24/08/2003 10:59 PM
Why it important to get the best odds on offer!!!
 
If the 'betting market' is set to 120% and a punter is a good judge who overcomes the disadvantage to 'break even', that is to say for every $120 outlayed the return is $120, thats a good punter! If the same punter was able to bet with the same skill in a 115% market he would in fact show an 8% profit.
 
110% market 20% profit
105% market 30% profit
100% market 40% profit
 
But if he was forced to bet in a 130% market then the poor punter would show a 15% loss!!! 
Betting Mathematics.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 82 of 221 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 27/08/2003 10:32 PM
Good work Gerry, keep it going. It's interesting.

Reply
Recommend  Message 83 of 221 in Discussion 
From: tonto Sent: 27/08/2003 11:04 PM
Gerry,
 
Your previous post should be tattooed in reverse to the forehead of every mug punter (including mine) so that everytime we look in the mirror we are reminded of it.
 
Post of the year.

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The number of members that recommended this message. 0 recommendations  Message 84 of 221 in Discussion 
Sent: 28/08/2003 12:13 AM
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Recommend  Message 85 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 28/08/2003 11:04 AM
Hawkesbury 28/08/2003 (revised)
Track Good. (only)
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB
 
Race 1 Cl 2 1600m
#2 ANDTOLD (105) 5/4
#1 BOLD YOUTH (85) 5/2
#5 JOSHLEAH (60) 13/2
#3 (40) 15/1, #4 (15) 60/1, #6 (20) 40/1.
 
Race 5 Cl 1 1800m
#2 DARK DANE (95) 4/6
#3 DALTICE (65) 5/2
#4 (5) 100/1, #5 (20) 25/1, #6 (15) 33/1, #7 (10) 60/1.
 
Race 8 Cl 2 1200m
#1 NIPS (70) 7/2
#7 SANTISSIMA (60)??? 11/2
#8 PILLY (55) 6/1
#4 (50) 8/1, #5 (35) 14/1, #6 (40) 12/1, #9 (15) 50/1, #10 (10) 80/1, #11 (30) 20/1, #12 (45) 9/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 86 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 28/08/2003 9:57 PM
Hawkesbury 28/08/2003
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
 
Race 1
#5 JOSHLEAH $12.00 @ $15.42=$0
 
Race 5
#3 DALTICE $34.00 @ $4.26=$0
 
Race 8
#4 DIGGERS $8.50 @ $21.19=$0
#8 PILLY $13.00 @ $11.07=$0
#12 POP 'N' RUN $12.00 @ $10.84=$0
 
Outlay $79.50 Return $0 Loss $79.50
Total Outlay $2536.50 Total Return $3436.10 Profit $899.60 (35%)
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

Reply
Recommend (1 recommendation so far)  Message 87 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 28/08/2003 11:01 PM

Frac.

Dec. 

Per. 

Frac. 

Dec. 

Per. 

Frac. 

Dec. 

Per. 

 1-2

 $1.50

 66.7%

 

 $3.20 

 31.3%

 9-1

 $10

 10.0% 

 

 1.60

 62.5

 9-4

 

 30.8

 10-1

 11

 9.1

 4-6

 

 60.0

 

 3.40

 29.4

 11-1

 12

 8.3

 

 1.70

 58.8

 5-2

 3.50

 28.6

 12-1

 13

 7.7

 4-5

 1.80

 55.6

 

 3.60

 27.8

 14-1

 15

 6.7

 

 1.90

 52.6

 11-4

 

 26.7

 15-1

 16

 6.3

 Evens

 2.00

 50.0

 

 3.80

 26.3

 16-1

 17

 5.9

 

 2.20

 45.5

 3-1

 4.00

 25.0

 20-1

 21

 4.8

 5-4

 

 44.4

 13-4

 

 23.5

 25-1

 26

 3.9

 

 2.30

 43.5

 7-2

 4.50

 22.2

 30-1

 31

 3.2

 

 2.40

 41.7

 4-1

 5.00

 20.0

 33-1

 34

 2.9

 6-4

 2.50

 40.0

 9-2

 5.50

 18.2

 40-1

 41

 2.4

 

 2.60

 38.5

 5-1

 6.00

 16.7

 50-1

 51

 2.0

 

 2.70

 37.0

 11-2

 6.50

 15.4

 60-1

 61

 1.6

 7-4

 

 36.4

 6-1

 7.00

 14.3

 66-1

 67

 1.5

 

 2.80

 35.7

 13-2

 7.50

 13.3

 80-1

 81

 1.2

 

 2.90

 34.5

 7-1

 8.00

 12.5

 100-1

 101

 1.0

 2-1

 3.00

 33.3

 8-1

 9.00

 11.1

 200-1

 201

 0.5

Odds, Fractional & Decimal - Percentage Chart.


Reply
Recommend  Message 88 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 29/08/2003 11:53 PM
Rosehill 30/08/2003
Track Good. (only)
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB
 
Race 5 G3 Hcp 1100m
 
#1 FOUARDEE (110) 2/1
#2 PRIVATE STEER (95)??? 11/4
#3 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE (65) 7/1
#5 GULLCATCHER (60) 9/1
#4 (25) 40/1, #6 (15) 80/1, #7 (20) 60/1, #8 (35) 25/1, #9 (30) 33/1, #10 (15) 80/1.
 
Race 7 Listed Hcp 1800m
 
#3 DOMINE (90) 5/2
#6 DANIEL'S THE MAN (75) 7/2
#4 GO ZIGGY (55) 7/1
#1 (40) 15/1, #2 (30) 25/1, #5 (10) 100/1, #7 (40) 15/1, #8 (35) 20/1, #9 (15) 60/1, #10 (20) 50/1, #11 (20) 50/1, #12 (25) 33/1, #13 (10) 100/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 89 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 30/08/2003 8:30 PM
Rosehill 30/08/2003
Track Good. (only)
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB
 
Race 5
#1 FOUARDEE $45 @ $4.97=$0
 
Race 7
#3 DOMINE $40 @ $3.66= $146.40
#4 GO ZIGGY $15 @ $8.46=$0
#6 DANIEL'S THE MAN $25 @ $5.30=$0
 
Outlay $105.00 Return $146.40 Profit $41.40
Total Outlay $2641.50 Total Return $3582.50 Profit $941.00 (36%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 90 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 30/08/2003 10:04 PM
Can you win on the TAB?
 
The short answer to this question is YES, but its not easy and almost impossible betting win and/or place. The reason for this is that the disadvantage to the punter, around 16%, is too great to overcome in a 'stable market'. Whats a 'stable market', a market where the odds on offer accurately reflect the 'true winning chance', adjusted for the TAB's commission. An example is the vast majority of horses paying $5 on the TAB have a true winning chance of  around $6, this is true for all price ranges. Something I should add at this point, which can be of great advantage to the punter, is the notion of 'overbet' and 'underbet'. Its a fact that if you add up the percentages for every runner in a race on the TAB you will get a total of around 118%, outlay $118 return $100 Loss $18 or about 16%, this can be repeated race after race, not very encouraging. The TAB dividend only refelects the weight of money bet on each runner, a dividend of $1.70 represents about 50% of the pool, and a dividend of $85 represents about 1% of the pool. If everthing held true you would think that if you backed 100 runners paying a dividend of $1.70 you would win 50 times, outlay $100 return $85 loss $15 (15%), in fact this is not true, you would get about 55 winners for a return of $93.50 for a loss of $6.50 (6.5%). If the favorite backers only lose around 8% of their money on the TAB, and the average is a loss of 16%, then someone is losing more than 16%, the answer is the punters backing the outsiders, if you bet $1 on every runner starting at $85 you are likely to win 1 in only 200 times outlay $200 return $85 loss $115 (60%). Its a fact the favorites are 'underbet' while at the same time the outsiders are 'overbet'. The smart punter can exploit this fact to his advantage. How? Its a lot easier to obtain $1.80 or better about a runner that starts at $1.70, than it is to get $200 or better about a runner that starts at $85.
 
How do you win on the TAB?
Answer: Do not bet in a 'stable market' such as the win and/or place pool. But rather bet in a 'volatile market' like quinellas, exactas, trifectas, first 4's, Doubles etc. Markets which often do not refelect the true winning chance of many of the combinations. Ratings can be used to identify 'value' combinations.
 
Cheers Gerry.  

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Recommend  Message 91 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 31/08/2003 10:40 PM
Grafton 01/092003
Track Good. (only)
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB
 
Race 1 Cl 5 1600m
 
#4 SEA ROMANCE (85) 9/4
#5 BLUE ARMOUR (70) 4/1
#3 HAVING YOU ON (60) 11/2
#1 (55) 13/2, #2 (50) 8/1, #6 (15) 50/1, #7 (10) 80/1, #8 (10) 80/1.
 
Race 7 open Hcp 1200m
 
#2 BOLD WILLIAM (70) 4/1
#1 GO ERROL (60) 6/1
#4 THE STRUTTER (60) 6/1
#3 CLOVELLY PRINCE (55) 7/1
#5 (50) 9/1, #6 (40) 14/1, #7 (20) 40/1, #8 (30) 25/1, #9 (20) 40/1, #10 (15) 50/1, #11 (15) 50/1, #12 (30) 25/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:52 PM Reply #7 »
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Recommend  Message 92 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 2/09/2003 6:06 PM
Grafton 01/092003
 
To win $100 with IAS, bets less than $5, NSW TAB
 
Race 1
#2 RINGLEADER $10 @ $18.84=$0
#4 SEA ROMANCE  $34 @ $6.75=$0
#5 BLUE ARMOUR $19 @ $10.76=$0
 
Race 7
#1 GO ERROL $15 @ $9.52=$0
#2 BOLD WILLIAM $24 @ $5.68=$0
#4 THE STRUTTER $13 @ $13.69=$0
 
Outlay $115.00 Return $0 Loss $115.00
Total Outlay $2756.50 Total Return $3582.50 Profit $826.00 (30%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 93 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 2/09/2003 9:12 PM
After 6 weeks I thought I would report some statistics and what might be learned from same.
 
Meetings covered = 20 ( from Grafton to Randwick)
Races covered = 54 (2.7 per meeting)
Total No bets =135 ( 2.5 per race)
Average bet = $20.42 (5/1)
Winners = 21
Winners to bets = 16%
Winners to races = 39%
Turnover =$2756.50
Return = $3582.50
Profit = $826.00
POT = 30%
 
Winners only
Average bet = $27.52 (4/1)
Average return = $170.60 (5.2/1)
Average overlay =34%
 
From statistics we can gain a number of things. I always hope to have a POT, my long term average has been around 10%, in this short exercise its been 30%, I'll discount that. Any punter can make a POT, regardless of his or hers winning percentage, it could be 10% and make a profit, it could be 50% and make a loss.
I like to rate a field to a market of 95%, with a required overlay of 5% to break even, anything above 5% will return a profit.
The most important thing with ratings is to set a price and stick to it, its of no use setting a price of 4/1 ($5) and then rushing in and taking 2/1 ($3) just because everyones backing it. A point here, pricing is the most important factor in doing ratings. Rating systems which place the field in a numbered sequence like:
 
Top  100
Next 97
Next 93
Next 80 
 
are next to useless, should I back Top at $2 or $3 or $4, maybe the one on 80 points showing $20 is a good bet, from these types of ratings you can't tell anything.
Nor can you tell anything from ratings where the market is set to greater than 100%. The total chances of all the runners in any race equals 100%, not 120% or even 101% always 100%, I have seen (professional) ratings which total 120%, that would only hold true if the race was going to be won 1.20 times, and one thing we do know is, every race is only won once.
At one time the stay at home punter has little or no chance of winning, as his options were limited to the local TAB or betting SP, both of which offered poor value and the punter was forced to bet blind. The only way to win was to be on course and getting the top odds. This is no longer true, in fact the opposite may now be the case, where the stay at home punter with a pc may in fact have the advantage, with far more betting options than in the past and far more reliable odds.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

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Recommend  Message 94 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameW_F_A Sent: 2/09/2003 9:30 PM
Thanks gerry for the statistical breakdown and may the great results continue.
 
 
W.F.A.
 
 

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Recommend  Message 95 of 221 in Discussion 
From: matttherat² Sent: 3/09/2003 12:35 AM
 

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Recommend  Message 96 of 221 in Discussion 
From: PlatinumScissors Sent: 3/09/2003 2:10 PM
Thanks, matttherat², the "real thing" is not to know how to convert those point ratings to a percentage, and pricing it out.
 
The real deal is  how you can simulate you own rating as accurate as possible to reflect the real chance of those horses in a real race!!! as it took Gerry years and years learning and experience to get.
 
But anyway, I know you also a successful pro.
 
Cheers
 
PlatSciss

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Recommend  Message 97 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 3/09/2003 3:37 PM
Thanks Matt,
I found that my rating method did not fit with a simple proportional system, what I found was by just adding up the total ratings and dividing them out to get a market I would 'under value' the favourites and 'over value' the outsiders.
 
Example Wyong Today Race 5 Cl 4 1350m Track Good
 
#1 (105) 27.5% = 11/4
#2 (20) 5.2% = 16/1
#3 (55) 14.3% = 6/1
#4 (45) 11.7% = 8/1
#5 (30) 7.8% = 12/1
#6 (25) 6.7% = 14/1
#7 (15) 3.9% = 25/1
#8 (70) 18.2%= 9/2
 
Total (365) Average 46 Total market= 95%.
 
After gathering data for a long time I found a truer market by relating the average rating to the top rating, so this race would now look like:
 
 
#1 (105) 44.4% = 5/4
#2 (20) 2.4% = 40/1
#3 (55) 12.5% = 7/1
#4 (45) 9.1% = 10/1
#5 (30) 3.9% = 25/1
#6 (25) 3.2% = 30/1
#7 (15) 1.6% = 60/1
#8 (70) 18.2%= 9/2
 
Total (365) Average 46 Total market= 95%.
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 98 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 6/09/2003 12:37 AM
 
 
Randwick 06/09/2003 Track Good
 
Race 2 Trans Hcp 1800m
 
#4 OUR KAZZ (75) 2/1
#2 AMEX (55) 9/2
#3 NAVY BLUE (50) 6/1
#1 (40) 10/1, #5 (45) 7/1, #6 (20) 30/1 #7 (15) 40/1, #8 (25) 20/1.
 
Race 3 List 2400m
 
#1 DANEBOUROGH (80) 11/4
#3 PRISTINE PARTNERS (75) 3/1
#2 IVY LEAGUE (60) 11/2
#5 CRAIGLEA FAME (50) 8/1
#4 (35) 15/1, #6 (35) 15/1, #7 (10) 80/1, #8 (20) 40/1, #9 (5) 200/1.
 
Race 5  Gr 3 1400m
 
#1 THORNE PARK (145) 4/5
#4 SPORTSMAN (60) 10/1
#5 BRITT'S BEST (60) 10/1
#2 BOREALE (55) 12/1
#3 (40) 25/1, #6 (30) 40/1, #7 (15) 80/1, #8 (25) 50/1.
 
Race 6 Gr 2 WFA 1600m
 
#1 LONHRO (140) evens
#6 CLANGALANG (90) 4/1
#3 EXCELLERATOR (75) 6/1
#2 (40) 25/1, #4 (5) 330/1, #5 (15) 100/1, #7 (30) 40/1, #8 (40) 25/1, #9 (25) 50/1.
 
Race 7 Gr 3 3yo' f 1400m
 
#1 REGIMENTAL GAL (120) 6/4
#4 SPURCENT (80) 6/1
#2 SHAMEKHA (70) 8/1
#3 LEAGALLY BAY (70) 8/1
#5 (50) 15/1, #6 (40) 25/1, #7 (25) 50/1, #8 (50) 15/1, #9 (5) 330/1, #10 (20) 66/1, #11 (10) 140/1.
 
Race 8 Trans Hcp 1400m
 
#6 BARBOROUGH (90) 3/1
#4 SO ASSERTIVE (70) 11/2
#5 NIGHT RAIDER (65) 6/1
#9 DANERUN (55) 9/1
#1 40 20/1, #2 (45) 15/1, #3 (50) 12/1, #7 (15) 66/1, #8 (40) 20/1, #10 (25) 40/1, #11 (10) 100/1, #12 (20) 50/1.
 
Cheers Gerry. 
 

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Recommend  Message 99 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 7/09/2003 10:11 PM
Adjusting The Market
 
As is often the case with ratings, once a field has been rated, and a market framed, an important scratching can throw the old market right out the window. A new one has to be framed to reflect the ratings.
A case in question was yesterdays Tramway Handicap at Randwick. The original market was headed by Thorne Park, rated a 4/5 chance, following Thorne Parks scratching the original market of 91% falls to an unreasonable 35%, and needs to be returned to around our stated aim of a 95% market. Such an important scratching (56% chance) will have a major impact on the new market.
The new market could now look like this.
 
Race 5  Gr 3 1400m
 
#1 THORNE PARK (0) scr
#4 SPORTSMAN (60) 3/1
#5 BRITT'S BEST (60) 3/1
#2 BOREALE (55) 4/1
#3 SHOWER OF ROSES (40) 8/1
#6 CRIANCA (30) 15/1
#7 SPORTSBEAT (15) 30/1
#8 MARDI GRAS(25) 20/1
 
A point here, I have found that when there is an important scratching, such as a clear top rated horse, the new market should not be a streight linear adjustment, but weighted in favour of the new top rated chance(s) so the new market may be fairer looking like this:
 
#1 THORNE PARK (0) scr
#4 SPORTSMAN (60) 5/2
#5 BRITT'S BEST (60) 5/2
#2 BOREALE (55) 5/1
#3 SHOWER OF ROSES (40) 10/1
#6 CRIANCA (30) 20/1
#7 SPORTSBEAT (15) 40/1
#8 MARDI GRAS(25) 25/1
 
Both markets are around 95% but with the 2nd market showing a bias in favour of the top chances.
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 100 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 9/09/2003 5:40 PM
True Winning Chance
 
A number of books including Don Scotts 'Winning' have produced tables to show the actual winning return at various odds. From these I have made my own chart.
 

Odds 

% Chance 

% Loss 

Odds 

% Chance 

% Loss 

 1/2

 63

 6

 5/1

 14

 16

 4/6

 56

 7

 11/2

 13

 16

 4/5

 52

 7

 6/1

 12

 16

 Evens

 46

 8

 7/1

 10

 20

 5/4

 40

 10

 8/1

 9

 20

 6/4

 36

 10

 9/1

 8

 20

 7/4

 33

 10

 10/1

 7

 22

 2/1

 30

 10

 12/1

 6

 22

 9/4

 28

 10

 15/1

 4.5

 25

 5/2

 26

 10

 20/1

 3.5

 30

 11/4

 24

 10

 25/1

 2.5

 35

 3/1

 22

 12

 33/1

 2

 40

 7/2

 19

 14

 50/1

 1

 50

 4/1

 17

 15

 66/1

 0.6

 60

 9/2

 15

 16

 100/1

 0.3

 70

Based on a approx 120% market.

It can be seen that as the odds increase the return to the punter decreases. For this reason most of the time my ratings follow the actual market, more or less. If a punter was to only back longshots, ie horses starting at 20/1 or longer he would have to overcome a disadvantage of 30% plus to win, While on the otherhand a punter who backed only those that started at less than 3/1 the disadvantage would be less than 10%.

Cheers Gerry. 

 

 


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Recommend  Message 101 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 10/09/2003 1:59 PM
Canterbury 10/09/03
Track Good
 
Race 2 3yo Hcp 1550m
 
#4 BARBERTON (90) 5/2
#1 AL JAMEEL (80) 7/2
#5 LOOKING (70) 5/1
#2 (50) 10/1, #3 (45) 12/1, #6 (25) 33/1, #7 (50) 10/1.
 
Race 5 4yo + Hcp 1200m
 
#1 RED OOG (90)??? 5/2
#9 KAZARM (70) 5/1
#7 CHARLIE WON'T 65) 6/1
#5 RAISE A KNIGHT (60) 8/1
#2 (30) 30/1, #3 (35) 20/1, #4 (50) 11/1, #6 (15) 66/1, #8 (15) 66/1, #10 (25) 33/1, #11 (35)??? 20/1.
 
Race 6 4yo + Hcp 1200m
 
#2 AZRAQ (85) 9/4
#4 CENTILLATE (75) 3/1
#1 AFTER CLASS (50) 9/1
#5 DANEFULL (45) 12/1
#8 MR. TANAKA (45) 12/1
#3 (30) 25/1, #6 (20) 40/1, #7 (30) 25/1, #9 (10) 100/1, #10 (20) 40/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 102 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 10/09/2003 10:15 PM
Value At The TAB
 
Much has been written on the Froum about the great value punters can get from betting exchanges, and  I have extolled the virtue of betting with Mark Read's IAS, always trying to point the punter to where the best value is. And its true, as far as win betting is concerned value is not at the TAB.
But there is value at the TAB, one thing that the TAB's can offer and others don't is exotic forms of betting, Quinella, Exacta, Trifecta, Doubles, first 4 etc,etc. These forms of betting have one thing in common, even in the smallest of fields there are many possiable combinations. Example in a field of 10 there are 45 Quinella, 90 Exacta, 720 Trifecta and over 5,000 first 4 combinations. With these large numbers of combos the market is very unstable and the dividends will often be much larger that their true winning chance.
By using ratings, and betting accordingly the punter can obtain value from the TAB. For most, its easy to workout that at 5/1 to win $100, divide 100 by 5, bet $20. But with exoctics its not so simple, and to punt successfully things have to be as simple as possible, as time is of the essence when betting we need to be able to work things out quickly, and by quickly I mean in a matter of minutes just using a pocket calculator. In the following you will find I have sacrificed some accuracy for expediency.
 
Doubles are the simplest of the exoctics to calculate. Just add 1 to each of the odds, then multiply together, subtract 1 and then divide 100 by the answer to get the bet size to win $100.
 
Example: 4/1 by 6/1 = 5x7=35, 35-1=34, 100/34=$2.94, bet =$3.
 
Quinellas are not so simple. The easiest method is to multiply one of the two odds by half the others odds, then divide 100 by the answer.
 
Example 4/1 and 6/1 = 4x3=12, 100/12=$8.33 bet $8.50
(the correct amount would be $7.50)
 
Exactas, are a little simpler. Multiply the two odds together then divide 100 by the answer.
 
Example 4/1 and 6/1 = 4x6=24, 100/24=$4.17 bet $4.50
(the correct amount would be $4)
 
Trifectas, First 4's and Quadrellas are mostly at very large odds and bets to win $100 would be only a dollar or two.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 
 
 

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Recommend  Message 103 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 12/09/2003 10:08 PM
 
 
Rosehill 13/09/03
Track Good
 
Race 4 Gr 3 Hcp 2000m
 
#1 HALF HENNESSY (105) 9/4
#2 DOMINE (95) 11/4
#6 ARIANTE (85) 7/2
#4 KREISLER MIRAGE (50) 14/1
#3 (15) 80/1, #5 (30) 33/1, #7 (10) 125/1, #8 (25) 40/1, #8 (25) 40/1, #10 (5) 250/1.
 
Race 6 Gr 2 Hcp 1300m
 
#2 GRAND ARMEE (140) 7/4
#3 PRIVATE STEER (125) 5/2
#1 DEFIER (115) 3/1
#5 FIERY VENTURE (40) 33/1
#4 (10) 200/1, #6 (15) 125/1, #7 (15) 125/1, #8 (20) 100/1.
 
Cheers Gerry. 

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Recommend  Message 104 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 18/09/2003 12:23 AM
Newcastle 18/09/2003
 
Race 8 Newcastle Gold Cup 2300m
 
#6 HY FUJI (85) 5/1
#2 COMFORTS (75) 13/2
#1 DANIEL'S THE MAN (70) 8/1
#13 ROCKSINGA (70) 8/1
#7 LEGERDEMAN (60) 12/1
#4 DANEBOROUGH (55) 14/1
#11 OUTLAWS (55) 14/1
#8 MY TALLY (50) 20/1
#10 OUR KAZZ (50) 20/1
#5 FEED THE METER (40) 30/1
#9 NAVY BLUE (40) 30/1
#12 PRISTINE PARTNERS (40) 30/1
#3 BONDI ICEBERG (10) 150/1
#14 TIME SIGNAL (5) 330/1
 

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Recommend  Message 105 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 21/09/2003 12:22 PM
How To Invent A 'System' And Make Money 
 
Since the first two chariots raced around the Roman Colisuim, punters have been trying to invent a 'machanical system' to beat the bookies. The chariots have gone but the bookies are still here. Well how do you come up with a 'System' and make money.
Firstly, you have to  'research' past results for a year or three.
Secondly, make up a 'set of rules' that sound very racey. Something like:
'Delete the favourite if it's starting from barrier 9 or greater, providing the race is  less than 1400m.'
It sounds a lot better than:
'Delete the favourite if a fat lady farts in the betting ring 5 minutes or less before the race is run.'
Both rules are of about the same value, but the first one sounds more racey.
Next, delete any rules that don't fit the 'winners'.
Have a rule like, Only operate on a Saturday. It too sounds a lot better than:
Only operate in a Cyclone. I could never understand why horses only like to win on a Saturday, but many systems have that rule so it must be good.
Now kick the system of in the month where the best result was had, if the system produced a stack of winners last May, then thats the month we kick off, it looks good on paper when you show the past results.
You then apply some form of 'double up' betting plan to the system, which with that good starting month will really kick the bank along.
Now refine the rules, that is throw out any that have stopped producing winners and introduce new ones that are now winning. You might have had a rule that went. Back the favourite, providing it is running within 14 days of its last start and won at its second last run, that rule went great in May and June but fell flat since July, but back the second favourite, providing it was placed at its last run and is racing within 21 days has took off over the last couple of months, so out with the old rule in with the new rule from July, thats how you refine the rules.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 
Oh! I did say you can make money from systems, How?
 
'SELL IT TO OTHERS
 
As a bookie once said "Show me a punter with a system, and at the end of the day I'll have his money, but he'll have his system."
 

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Recommend  Message 106 of 221 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 21/09/2003 12:52 PM
To have a system whereby you back a horse or horses that have a fitness advantage over other competitors in a commodity application to return a profit.
 
That is how you give away your day job and take punting seriously.
 
The fitness levels are there, the commodity betting you have to work out.
 
It doesn't matter whether it is May, June, July, Boxing Day, Fathers Day or the day before you die.
 
It doesn't matter whether the races are at Balnarring Picnic, Darwin, or Flemington on Cup Day.
 
It doesn't matter whether it is a slow track, heavy track or dry track, that's easily seen in your race book.
 
All that matters is the wideth of the different fitness levels there is between the runners as seen in the mounting yard.
 
Cheers.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:54 PM Reply #8 »
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Recommend  Message 107 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 21/09/2003 3:10 PM
WOT,
 
Not to confuse 'method' with 'system'. A system is where you try to apply some kind of mechanical rules that are based on past results, but have no validity when applied to todays race. Your 'fitness concept' do'nt fall into the category of a 'system' but rather fitness is one of the elements that is part of the annallistic approach required to try and determine the outcome of todays race. I'm sure you would agree that there are other elements required besides fitness, but not to under score the importance of fitness as it is one of the key elements in determining that outcome.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

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Recommend  Message 108 of 221 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 22/09/2003 9:40 PM
My apologies Gerry, but unfortunately 100,000's of systems over 150 years and more of racing have not worked.
 
That is your past results.
 
Fitness still has to be worked in with a knowledge of the ability of horses in the race, yes, I do agree with you. But (I could go on for an hour) I won't.
 
Lets know when you have the "system" Gerry, I'd be very interested to incorporate it with Fitness.
 
All the best.
 
cheers.

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Recommend  Message 109 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameSmiley5110 Sent: 23/09/2003 10:08 PM
G'day Gerry and others
 
What is this drivel beginning to creep into this tread? Mechanicals systems can't work for any number of reasons. How many systems have Practical Punting, for example, come up with and marketed over the last decade? How many of them do they now support? They knock out another one when they deem it is time to fleece another bunch of gullible subscribers to their magazine. I see there latest baby is making 200% on your money according to the adds. Have you ever seen a follow up in their magazine tracking the success of their past systems? If not, why not? Are they protecting their clients profits by not telling anyone how they have been going? I let you draw your own conclusion. Let's not waste any more time on this rubbish. We should realise that value betting is the only way to win in the long term and get on with it. Where are your ratings mate? Are you having a holiday or have you lost a bit of confidence as the tougher races have come out of the woodwork? You seem to have dropped off a bit lately.     
 
Cheers
 
Smiley

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Recommend  Message 110 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 24/09/2003 12:37 AM
Hi Smiley,
 
You are indeed correct, there never has been and most likely never will be a 'machanical system' invented that will 'beat the bookies'. My  How To Invent A 'System' And Make Money  was posted to highlight that fact. I don't want anyone to think that ratings are a  'System'. Many well intendtioned people have tried to come up with a set of easy to follow rules and produce rating, mostly by using a computer programme, these invariable fail, because they fail to locate 'value'.
One of the reasons I started this thread was because there is very little posted on the forum about punting as such, lots of tips, lots of interesting topics about racing in general, but not a lot about punting. I also wanted it to be of some interest, so I did'nt just post ratings, but everything I post here relates to it in some way. 
I posted my ratings and my betting method to try and show that a punter can profit from racing, its not important to me if anyone follows them, in fact I would much prefer if someone was willing to have a go at doing their own if they are so interested. I have nothing to gain from this, as I have nothing to sell.  
Yes and I still do ratings most days of the week, and I will continue to post them. 
 
Cheers Gerry. 

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Recommend  Message 111 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 24/09/2003 1:22 PM
Canterbury 24/09/2003
Track Good
 
Race 5 3yo's Hcp 1550m.
 
#1 BAYRAQDAAR (95) 9/4
#2 SAM SUNG A SONG (75) 9/2
#3 ESCAPE TO MARS (70) 11/2
#5 OCTZANO (60) 7/1
#9 VLTAVA (55) 9/1
#6 (15) 66/1, #7 (20) 50/1, #8 (40) 20/1.
 
Race 6 Trans Hcp 1550m
 
#2 PENETRATOR (105) 9/4
#1 DIAL TONES (90) 7/2
#3 SADARAR (75) 11/2
#6 ASHWORTH (70) 13/2
#4 (25) 40/1, #5 (25) 40/1, #7 (35) 25/1, #9 (45) 15/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 112 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 24/09/2003 6:24 PM
A pleasing result at Canterbury today with BAYRAQDAAR scoring as a double overlay, rated a 9/4 paying 9/2. From a punting prospective a class 1 at Taree could be a better betting proposition than a group 1 at Randwick. Many punter believe that they have to bet in the 'big ones' if they are going to have any chance of winning, this is not true, as I've said before the races to bet on are the ones where you know the horses and the tracks etc. It does not matter if its in the bush on a Tuesday or in the city on a Saturday, they pay the same if the result goes your way.
Remember! Never underestimate the value to be had with quinellas, exactas, trifectas etc, they can turn an ordinary win into a super win and can also save your bacon when your top rater goes down. 
 
Cheers Gerry. 

Reply
Recommend  Message 113 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 25/09/2003 10:59 AM
Hawkesbury 25/09/2003
Track Good
 
Race 3 C2 Hcp 1400m
 
#1 HELDEN PARK (110) 6/4
#2 GRANDAZZ (80) 4/1
#3 I'M SMITTEN (65)??? 6/1
#5 BONNIE FAMILLE (65) 6/1
#4 HOT MAGIC (45) 14/1
 
Race 4 C2 Hcp 1000m
 
#3 RELOADED (95) 7/4
#1 NDEREBA (90) 9/4
#2 BOOKING (60) 6/1
#6 MAGIC HOLIDAY (50) 9/1
#4 (5) 200/1, #7 (10) 100/1, #8 (30) 25/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 114 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 26/09/2003 8:04 AM
Betting Approach One of the difficult questions with ratings is how and when to bet exoctics, win betting seem to offer no problems as things are laid out fairly straight forward but in the case of quinellas, exactas and trifectas etc its becomes a bit of a problem as to which and how many combinations to cover. the two races from H'bury are good examples to look at. The first, race 3 , would seem to offer little value when it comes to win betting, the favorite is short and is rated to win, a rating of (110) puts it well clear of the field, but looking at the second rating (80) it to is clear of the rest. This would indicate an quinella/exacta, with the favorite being short and the 2nd favourite being the only danger, in most cases the quinella should offer better value than the exacta. In a small field like this trifecas should be limited to the top picks only something of the order  1/2/3,5 checking the value of 3&5. in this 3 was offered at around 12/1 and 5 @ 3/1. The first 4 can be covered in much the same way 1/2/3,5/3,5. In this way the number of combinations are limited, giving a reasonable chance of winning.
The second race, race 4 is somewhat different, the ratings have given 3 a good chance off beating the short priced favourite 1 and looks as if there could be some value in a 3&1 exacta and trifecta 3/1/2, 2 being a clear chance for 3rd, first 4 going 3/1/2/6 also an easy pick.
As things turned out, we managed to obtain some value in race 3, but alas NDEREBA proved far to strong for RELOADED in the race 4 and that put paid to that.
It is most impotant to bet exoctics to get value, but also be careful as to how many combinations are taken, as too many can lead to large losses over time.
 
Cheers Gerry.  

Reply
Recommend  Message 115 of 221 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 26/09/2003 1:00 PM
Your right on the ball Gerry.
 
I find someone having a go at something and discussing some form of system or an approach to punting a lot more interesting than that of someone say just putting their tips in.
 
Mathematics of how and when to bet is the most difficult part of racing you can ever take on.
 
As you said win and place are very straight forward, but to turn a selection say that runs 2nd and pays $3.20 a place, in theory (i can never spell that) you should win heaps on multiple bets.
 
Now thats mathematics and getting the most our of a value result.
 
Just to get your selection to run a place is a huge achievement.
 
Keep at Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 116 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 27/09/2003 1:02 AM
Randwick 27/09/2003
Track Good
 
Race 2 3yo's LR 2000m
 
#3 SQUARE ONE (90) 6/4
#1 AL JAMEEL (70) 7/2
#2 L'ESPALTER (65) 4/1
#4 (35) 14/1, #5 (30) 20/1, #6 (15) 50/1, #7 (10) 80/1,
 
Race 3  3yo's LR 1400m
 
#5 LOOKING (85) 9/4
#1 SANTISSIMA (70) 4/1
#2 AIM FOR GOLD (65) 9/2
#3 (50) 9/1, #4 (15) 50/1, #6 (20) 40/1, #7 (50) 9/1.
 
Race 4 3yo's s/w G2 1400m
 
#7 HASNA (155) 'evens'
#8 CLASSY DANE (100) 9/2
#1 AMBULANCE (90) 11/2
#2 (55) 15/1, #3 (40) 30/1, #4 (45) 25/1, #5 (10) 200/1, #6 (15) 125/1.
 
Race 5 G3 Hcp 2400m
 
#6 DASHING AWAY (90) 7/2
#1 BEDOUIN (75) 11/2
#3 OUTLAWS (75) 11/2
#2 (25) 50/1, #4 (65) 8/1, #5 (60) 10/1, #7 (45) 15/1, #8 (45) 15/1, #9 (35) 25/1, #10 (15) 80/1,#11 (30) 33/1.
 
Race 6 G1 WFA 1600m
 
#1 LONHRO (140) 'evens'
#2 DEFIER (100) 3/1
#3 GRAND ARMEE (65) 7/1
#4 (15) 100/1, #5 (15) 100/1, #6 (40) 25/1, #7 (20) 66/1.
 
Race 7 G3 Hcp 1400m
 
#2 ZABARRA (105) 9/2
#4 BRITT'S BEST (100) 11/2
#1 FIERY VENTURE (95) 6/1
#3 (55) 20/1, #5 (60) 16/1, #6 (80) 8/1, #7 (65) 14/1, #8 (40) 40/1, #9 (75) 10/1, #10 (70) 12/1, #11 (10) 250/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 117 of 221 in Discussion 
From: maf Sent: 27/09/2003 1:53 AM
I just want to say thanks Gerry for your efforts......Its good to have a "real person" doing the ratings.....not someone churning them out....It must take alot of time....
When I'm on the fence, I always click on your thread........
 
When I'm sure, I don't click on your thread.......as I could not stand a non-favorable rating on one that I am going to bet.. And of course its because I value your perceptions; and they may change my mind/bet.....One rule that I have ....don't change your bet...I think you know what I'm talkin' bout...
 
Keep it up.....you are especially great at rating the minor cups/stakes races around the secondary racecourses.......that takes a talent.......anyway .....Thanks..

Reply
Recommend  Message 118 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 27/09/2003 10:20 PM
We moved from the bush to the city today, and some Quality horses in some Quality races.Rating 6 of the 9 races ( in fact I rated race 8 as well for the double but did'nt include it here). So often I am surprised by the betting, never be put off because you think  the odds are far too good compared to your rated prices, therefore something must be wrong.  Managed to come up with some early overs AL JAMEEL (70) 7/2 and OUTLAWS (75) 11/2 but for once quinellas, exactas and trifectas are hard to come by, except for a  fair trifecta in the 4th at $35. GRAND ARMEE(65) 7/1  splits LONHRO (140) 'evens' and DEFIER (100) 3/1 and my ratings say Grand Armee is going to have trouble beating Defier home, got that wrong! Then up comes race 7 with ZABABRRA (105) on top @ 4/1 ( 8/1 chance scratched) from BRITT'S BEST (100) 5/1 with the nominal favourite FIERY VENTURE (95) 11/2 the other main hope, somethings wrong with these ratings, can't understand how they are betting around 10/1 the top raters, both being double overlays, stick we do and up pops a $38 Quinella and $75 Exacta and a nice winner as well.  You don't win them all, but its nice to win some
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 119 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 28/09/2003 12:02 PM
How To Rate A Race.
Many punters do ratings, but many don't, but would like to, but consider it as too hard and too time consuming, which it can be. Don Scott who I have refered to many times addmitted it took up most of his time and money, up till the wee small hours of the morning, employing staff, keeping  records etc etc etc. But it does not have to be that way. With a good basic knowledge to start with and some basic tools: formguide, notes, pc, like any trade the tools are up to you. With practice races can be rated within 15 to 30 minutes, so if one concentrates on only a few races per program this can be done in an hour or two.
 
Where To Start.
There is a need to understand the factors that affect the performance of every runner in every race, not only the winner but the horse that runs last and all those in between. There are many good books that give detailed explainations of these factors. I'll summerise these as I see them, you could have others, I don't believe there is any one or two factors that affect performance, but many, some more important than others. What may be important in one race, may be of less or more importance in another.
 
GOING
DISTANCE
TRACK
FORM
CONDITION
CONSISTENCY
WEIGHT
BARRIER
JOCKEY
TRAINER
PACE
CLASS
and POTENTIAL
 
Cheers Gerry.
 
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 120 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 28/09/2003 7:13 PM
Whats Next
The most important asset a punter has is his own judgement.
Once establishing the important criteria to begin to 'rate a race', whats needed is a simple to use method that is universal to all races. Don Scotts method of weight rating was sound and certainly produced results for him and is team of 'Legal Eagles'. The major draw back with weight rating is the need to spend countless hours rating every runner in every race. These sorts of ratings can be found in 'Wizzard' and on the net (for free) and I find them very, very helpful indeed. There are other ratings that can also be used when doing your own ( some better than others), their use is up to you.
The race is the 'Final Exam' for the each horse, and our ratings are their 'Trial Assements' for that Exam. Whats need is a 'yardstick' to judge each competitor by. I use a 'Average Horse' for each race at these conditions. What I am trying to do is compare each runner to the average for the race. Everything about this 'Average Horse' is average, average form, average jockey, average everything.
With my punting I like things to be simple and practical as possible A computer spreadsheet (eg Excel) is handy for this, and the design is fairly simple. I start by awarding 'Average' 50 points. Then I break the 50 points down according to the importance I place on each one of the performance factors, as above. A basic sheet could look like this:
 
 

Total 

Average 

 25

 5 

 50

 

(A) Form, (B) Condition, (C) Class, (D) Track, (E) Distance, (F) Going, (G) Consistency, (H) Weight, (I) Jockey, (J) Barrier, (K) Potential, (L) Trainer, (M) Pace. 

The value applied to each factor changes from race to race, for example 'Distance' is very important in the Melbourne Cup, where as 'Going' is important on a heavy track. The value for each is from ones own judgement, but always totals to 50.

Now, each runner in turn is compared to the 'Average', I start at the bottom and work up. It does not take long to work out what is required to be 'Average' in a race.

 

Total 

Average 

 25

 2

 2

 2

 2

 1

 0

 0

 0

 50

Lonhro  

 85

 15

 6

 6 

 4 

 8

 5

 3

 1

 1

 1

 0

 140

Cheers Gerry.

 

 


Reply
Recommend  Message 121 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 29/09/2003 10:38 PM
Where To Now
Like anything new it takes time and experience to become proficient at what you are doing, and as you improve, your ratings also improve until a point is reached where you are in a position to overcome the 'punting disadvantage' and start to make a profit. Having said that, where to now. Once the whole field has been rated one can then get an idea of the relative strength of the race. For example the ratings for the Group 1wfa George Main Stakes 1600m, lets have a look:
 
1 LONHRO 140  an outstanding horse who has every advantage over the 'average' for this race.
2 DEFIER  100 much better than 'average' in this class.
3 GRAND ARMEE 65 better than 'average' but still with some if and buts
4 DRESS CIRCLE 15 not in this, but a bit above hopeless, well below average today.
5 ARCHAVE 15 much the same as above
6 PLAT SCISSORS 40 getting close to average, but still a little below, has some class.
7 HALF HENNESSY 20 a bit like the above but with a few more negs, brings him down.
 
Please don't comment on my judgements of each runner, under different circumstances ratings can go up and down.
I'll just add something here, after rating every runner I then round up each to the nearest 5 points ( it helps when pricing). So you only need a head and four legs to score 5, and I never give horses negative scores. The highest rating I can recall giving a horse when using this method was Sunline at 185 a few years back.
Total Score 395 average 56 with Lohnro included the field is above average for the race, take him out and the field average drops to 43 putting it well below average. This is important to know as it will help when pricing the field.
To price a field I start  with the horse(s) nearest or on average for the field. For 4 runners 13/4, 5-9/2, 6-11/2, 7-13/2, 8-15/2, 9- 9/1, 10-10/1, 11-11/1 12 or 13 -12/1, 14-14/1, 15-15/1, 16 or 17 16/1, 18,19 or 20-20/1. I then price the rest of the field up and down from the average. Again with pratice pricing will become a very easy task. Its important to note that pricing should not be a straight linear result, but should have a strong positive bias in favour of the 'high' raters and a negative bias to the 'low' raters. Always aiming for a percentage of around 95% for the total field.
 
Cheers Gerry. 

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:55 PM Reply #9 »
Reply
Recommend  Message 122 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 1/10/2003 12:50 PM
Canterbury 01/10/2003
Track Good
 
Race 1 F&M Hcp 1200m
#1 HIGHEST (85) 2/1
#2 MIZ RIOCEE (80)??? 11/4
#5 SAFFIE DARLING (55) 6/1
#6 LADY BLASWICK (50) 7/1
#3 (30) 25/1, #4 (15) 50/1, #7 (25) 30/1, #9 (10) 80/1.
 
Race 4 F&M Hcp 1550m
#3 CHECKERED PAST (90) 3/1
#1 I'M IN HEAVEN (80) 4/1
#2 GAHELA BABY (60) 8/1
#4 (55) 9/1, #5 (50) 11/1, #6 (55) 9/1, #7 (40) 20/1, #8 (25) 40/1, #9 (15) 66/1.
 
Race 5 H&G Hcp 1100m
#1 SIR TRAIL (95) 7/4
#2 BELLAROUGH (85) 11/4
#4 MAJOR (75) 4/1
#3 (30) 25/1, #5 (35) 20/1, #6 (5) 200/1, #7 (10) 100/1. #8 (25) 30/1.
 
Race 6 Hcp 1900m
#2 GASTELLAN (75) 13/4
#5 LYMAN HALL (75) 13/4
#3 FUEL (65) 9/2
#8 FLYING CROWN (55) 13/2
#4 (40) 14/1, #6 (15) 50/1, #9 (30) 25/1, #10 (25) 30/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 123 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 1/10/2003 5:39 PM
Checkered Past managed to get 4's but their was a bit of a late go,must be those Beadman fans. Not much between the top 2 in the 5th with Sin Trail a bit short early. I hope the 7/1 holds up about Bellarouge LOL. Outside of 1&2 Major is a chance with Dan Beasley for the trifecta. 
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 124 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 2/10/2003 10:40 AM
Went through my old punting books and came across one that would be worth a read if interested in ratings. 'Winning Made Easy' by Don Scott. He wrote it as a guide to his 'Gallopers Club' (does anyone know if its still in operation?) but has some good basic material. It may not be still in print.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 125 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 4/10/2003 12:44 AM
Randwick 04/10/2003
Track Dead/Good
 
Race 7 G1 Epsom Hcp 1600m
 
#3 GRAND ARMEE (110) 9/2
#1 EXCELLERATOR (95) 6/1
#2 CLANGALANG (95) 6/1
#7 BOREDALE (65) 14/1
#12 STOWAY (65) 14/1
#8 SPORTSMAN (60) 16/1
#9 FIERY VENTURE (55) 20/1
#20 FORUM FLOOZIE (55) 20/1
#6 THORN PARK (50) 25/1
#11 ZABARRA (50) 25/1
#16 BRITT'S BEST (40) 40/1
#10 OSCA WARRIOR (30) 60/1
#15 AMEX (30) 60/1
#4 DRESS CIRCLE (25) 80/1
#13 WYANGAN PINES (20) 100/1
#17 GALANTE (15) 140/1
#19 NIPS (15) 140/1
#5 CRAWL (10) 250/1
#14 GENTLE GENIUS (10) 250/1
#18 INSPIRE (10) 250/1
 
Cheers Gerry
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 126 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 4/10/2003 9:37 PM
Overlay
Something that is often mentioned but never really understood by many is the concept of obtaining 'overs' or an 'overlay' when punting. With a well devised staking plan, and I have said in the past that I am never in favour of any sort of progressive (double up) method of betting, it is easy to determined the profitability of a race, in relation to your outlay. Taking todays Epsom Hcp at Randwick and comparing the odds offered by 'IAS Diviplus' and my rated odds it can be seen that the best value in the race came from only 3 of the 20 starters
 
#1 EXCELLERATOR 6/1 divi+ 9/1
#2 CLANGALANG 6/1 divi+ 12/1
#12 STOWAY 14/1 divi+ 33/1
 
Based on my staking plan the bets would have been $15, $14 and $5 to win $100 total outlay of $34.
The return for each would have been approximately $150, $182 and $170 giving the following profits $116, $148 and $136. but as we were aiming to make a profit of only $100 per winner our returns should have been $115, $114 and $105 giving a profit of $81, $80 and $71. The overlay for each was as follows
 
#1 EXCELLERATOR $116-$81 = $35 or 43%
#2 CLANGALANG $148-$80 = $68 or 85%
#12 STOWAY $136-$71=$65 or 92%
 
What is important when punting, in fact its vital, is to obtain the best possible odds to achieve a long term profit. It is in fact the overlays that a punter can obtain that lead to a POT.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 127 of 221 in Discussion 
From: matttherat² Sent: 4/10/2003 9:44 PM
Nice work Gerry.
 
Clangalang was available for at least 15-00 on Betfair.

Reply
Recommend  Message 128 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 4/10/2003 9:58 PM
Thanks Matt,
I'm afraid that if the 'Powers That Be' get their way and kill off betfair and diviplus and any other thing that might give the punter some chance of winning, then you might as well turn up the game. Regardless of what others say I'm convinced that you can only profit from punting by being able to bet in very 'tight' markets from 105  to 110%. You have to be one hell of a punter if you can turn a decent profit from the TAB. As you know I like a bet at the 'NSW country' meetings, with bookie markets of around 130%+ only JC himself could work a miracle and make a POT from that.
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 129 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 5/10/2003 12:26 PM
The Do's and Dont's of Ratings
 
Summary
 
THE DO'S
 
  • Only bet where you know the horses and courses.
  • Bet when the race conditions are in your favour.
  • Always try and obtain the best odds possible.
  • Annalise 'the form' to the best of your ability,
  • Always bet to a set plan.
  • Always use your own judgement.
  • Keep records.

THE DONT'S

  • Never 'double up'.
  • Never follow systems.
  • Never bet for the sake of having a bet.
  • Never punt with money you can't afford to lose.

Remember. Every horse has a chance, its just that some have a better chance than others!

Cheers Gerry.

 


Reply
Recommend  Message 130 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 8/10/2003 4:54 PM
Wyong 08/10/2003
Track dead/Good
 
Race 6 Cl 2 1600m
 
#3 ALBATORI (90) 9/4
#2 CONQUEST (70) 9/2
#4 BTTICELLI CHIC (70) 9/1
#5 (60) 13/2, #6 (20) 40/1, #7 (20) 40/1, #8 (40) 15/1, #9 (25) 30/1, #10 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 7  Cl 2 1200m
 
#5 SAM SUNG A SONG (100) 5/2
#3 MAHONIE (95) 11/4
#1 RELOADED (85) 7/2
#2  (45) 14/1, #4 (15) 80/1, #6 (30) 33/1, #7 (25) 40/1, #8 (15) 80/1, #9 (25) 40/1, #10 (20) 60/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 131 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 8/10/2003 6:04 PM
 
Wyong 08/10/2003
Track dead/Good
 
Race 8 Cl 4 1000m
 
#3 HOW I WONDER (95)??? 3/1
#7 CHASSERESSE (75) 5/1
#9 ICEKHAN (75) 5/1
#6 LOYOLA'S LASS (65) 7/1
#1 (50) 14/1, #2 (45) 16/1, #4 (20) 60/1, #5 (25) 40/1, #10 (40) 25/1, #11 (40) 25/1.
 
Race 9 Cl 1 1100m
 
#1 DANE'S JESTER (100)??? 2/1
#3 CITYITE (80) 7/2
#7 PEKAN FLIGHT (70) 5/1
#6 IMPALA BULLET (60) 7/1
#5 (40) 16/1, #8 (40) 16/1, #9 (15) 60/1, #11 (5) 200/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 132 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 10/10/2003 11:47 PM
 
 
Caulfield 11/10/2003
Track Good/Dead
 
Race 4 G2 WFA 1000m
#1 YELL (90) 3/1
#6 SPINNING HILL (85) 13/4
#7 LOVERLY JUBLY (80) 4/1
#2 (35) 25/1, #3 (55) 9/1, #4 (45) 12/1, #5 (25) 40/1, #8 (15) 66/1, #9 (25) 40/1.
 
Race 5 G2 Hcp 2400m
#1 GREY SONG (110) 11/4
#4 VICKSBURG (85) 5/1
#3 PIACHAY (75) 13/2
#2 TMERIC (65) 9/1
#5 SCHUMPETER (60) 12/1
#6 (10) 150/1, #7 (50) 20/1, #8 (40) 25/1, #9 (50) 20/1,  #10 (20) 80/1, #11 (35) 30/1, #12 (10) 150/1.
 
Race 6 Caulfield Guineas G1 3yo's 1600m
#3 EXCEED AND EXCEL (105) 3/1
#4 AMBULANCE (85) 5/1
#7 ELVSTROEM(65) 9/1
#1 IN TOP SWING (60) 10/1
#2 (30) 40/1, #5 (50) 16/1, #6 (55) 12/1, #8 (40) 25/1, #9 (30) 40/1, #10 (25) 50/1, #11 (30) 40/1, #12 (20) 80/1.
 
Race 7 Caulfield Stks G1 WFA 2000m
#1 LONHRO (145) 4/6
#2 DEFIER (70) 7/1
#7 MUMMIFY (60) 10/1
#3 (50) 14/1, #4 (15) 80/1, #5 (10) 125/1, #6 (40) 25/1, #8 (35) 30/1.
 
Race 8 Toorak G1 Hcp 1600m
#4 TITANIC JACK (95) 5/1
#2 NATURAL BLITZ (80) 8/1
#7 TRUE GLO (80) 8/1
#3 MR. MURPHY (70) 10/1
#8 AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' (65) 12/1
#16 LORD VOLKSRAAD (55) 16/1 
#1 (40) 33/1, #5 (50) 20/1, #6 (45) 25/1, #9 (45) 25/1, #10 (15) 125/1, #11 (45) 25/1, #12 (40) 33/1, #13 (35) 40/1, #14 (45) 25/1, #15 (30) 60/1, #17 (45) 25/1, #18 (20) 100/1.
 
Cheers Gerry. 
 
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 133 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 15/10/2003 12:00 PM
 
 
Caulfield 15/10/2003
Track Good
 
Race 5 G1 Thousand Guineas 3yo F 1600m
 
#1 SHAMEKHA (110) 9/2
#5 ASHENTI (105) 5/1
#3 UNEARTHLY (100) 11/2
#2 SPECIAL HARMONY (95) 6/1
#7 SANTISSIMA (85) 8/1
#4 HINTING (80) 10/1
#6 SPURCENT (40) 40/1
#11 PORTLAND DAMASK (40) 40/1
#8 CHARMVIEW (35) 50/1
#9 BAHAMIAN STAR (35) 50/1
#12 TULLY BELLOTTO (30) 60/1
 
Cheers Gerry. 

Reply
Recommend  Message 134 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 17/10/2003 11:10 PM
Caulfield 18/10/2003
Track Dead/Good
 
Race 7 G1 Caulfield Cup Hcp 2400m
 
#4 PENTASTIC (100) 11/2
#6 MUMMIFY (80) 9/1
#11 STRASBOURG (80) 9/1
#1 IN TIME'S EYE (75) 10/1
#2 GRAND ARMEE (75) 10/1
#5 DISTINCTLY SECRET (65) 14/1
#13 MAKYBE DIVA (60) 16/1
#8 PLATINUM SCISSORS (55) 20/1
#10 HONOR BABE (50) 25/1
#16 ZAGALIA (50) 25/1
#3 HAIL (45) 30/1
#15 VICKSBURG (40) 40/1
#17 ROSE ARCHWAY (40) 40/1
#9 SUNDAY JOY (35) 50/1
#18 AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' (35) 50/1
#7 HUGS DANCER (30) 60/1
#12 GREY SONG (20) 100/1
#19 ANOTHER WARRIOR (20) 100/1
#14 OARSMAN (15) 140/1
#20 DANEBOROGH (15) 140/1
#21 GENTLE GENIUS (5) 500/1
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 135 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 22/10/2003 11:52 AM
Geelong 22/10/2003
Track Dead
 
Race 8 G3 Geelong Cup Hcp 2400m
 
#6 PHYSIQUE (100) 5/1
#3 OUTLAWS (90) 7/1
#2 OUT OF OPTIONS (75) 9/1
#1 TUMERIC (70) 10/1
#5 SHE'S ARCHIE (70) 10/1
#13 ZAZZMAN (70) 10/1
#4 ASCANA (55) 16/1
#10 THE MIGHTY LIONS (50) 20/1
#9 BULKHEAD (45) 25/1
#14 MISS DIAZ (45) 25/1
#11 THURMAN (40) 30/1
#8 BOLD BAND (35) 40/1
#15 BACKSTREET BOY (35) 40/1
#12 TOMORROW'S PARTY (30) 60/1
#17 SPECIAL SCENE (25) 80/1
#18 PAGANO (15) 140/1
#19 LEXITAW (10) 200/1
 
Cheers Gerry
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 136 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 22/10/2003 6:39 PM
Proved to be a very open race at Geelong with plenty of chances. Its most important when looking for value to look beyond the top rated horse and check those well in the market. Our top rater PHYSIQUE 5/1offered good value @ 7/1, several other runner offered value equal to or better than the favourite OUTLAWS 7/1 @ 10/1, OUT OF OPTIONS 9/1 @ 12/1 and ZAZZMAN 10/1 @ 14/1. Just as important is to stear clear of the many that offer poor value  like The Mighty Lions 20/1 @ 6/1 and Ascana 16/1 @ 8/1. Always be prepared to back more than one chance in a race whenever value is offered. I personally limit myself to a maximum of 3 win bets per race, but I know some punter who would back 5 or 6 runners in a race when they thought they were getting overs.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:57 PM Reply #10 »
Reply
Recommend  Message 137 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 25/10/2003 12:07 AM
Moonee Valley
Track Good
 
Race 5 G2 WFA 1000m
 
#5 SPINNING HILL (125) 5/4
#3 DANTANA (75) 11/2
#8 HALIBERY (75) 11/2
#2 SUPER ELEGANT (60) 10/1
#7 BEFORE TOO LONG (50) 14/1
#6 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE (30) 40/1
#1 PEMBLETON (20) 60/1
#4 AZEVEDO (5) 250/1
 
Race 6 G2 Moonee Valley Cup s/w 2500m
 
#11 FRIGHTENING (90) 11/2
#7 ROSE ARCHWAY (70) 9/1
#8 MON MEKKI (65) 12/1
#9 FLYING CHANCE (65) 12/1
#15 LEGIBLE (65) 12/1
#1 MR. PRUDENT (60) 14/1
#3 PIACHAY (60) 14/1
#10 DELVECCHIO (60) 14/1
#2 (30) 50/1, #4 (45) 25/1, #5 (50) 20/1, #6 (40) 30/1, #12 (40) 30/1, #13 (30) 50/1, #14 (15) 125/1, #16 (5) 400/1, #17(25) 60/1, #18 (10) 200/1.
 
Race 7 G1 Cox Plate WFA 2040m
 
#1 LONHRO (170) 'evens'
#4 CLANGALANG (110) 4/1
#2 DEFIER (85) 7/1
#3 FIELDS OF OMAGH (55) 20/1
#7 SHOWER OF ROSES (45) 25/1
#6 PARACA (40)??? 33/1
#5 NATURAL (35) 40/1
#8 ZAGALIA (25) 66/1
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 138 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 26/10/2003 7:15 PM
Where Did We Go Wrong?
 
Why do most punters bet? For enjoyment, fun, entertainment, lots of reasons. But for most, winning is a bonus. Often selecting winners is not the problem. The problem is turning those winners into a profit. Most punters lack the discipline necessary to achieve this. Recently I read about 'The Bank Manager' who it seems lost millions on the punt. What I understand of the case was the punter was betting into the right market and he did'nt lack the cash and I'm sure he backed his share of winners, but he still managed to lose all that money. Possibly his attitude was all wrong and he lacked the necessary discipline to make a profit.
Even with a well thought out approach to punting its so easy to go off the rails when things are not going as expected. Thats when losers follow losers! A true story, some years ago I saw  a good friend of mine At Randwick early in the day and as usual we discussed what we thought of the programme for the day. In the last my mate said " I've got the good oil on 'So n' So' resuming from a spell and ridden by one of Sydneys best punting jockeys, I had the horse at 8/1??? in my market and when he told me where the tip had come from and what he knew I had a quick rethink and priced it at 3's. Well comming to the last it opened at 9/2 eased to13/2 before firming to start at 5's. In my new market it was the only runner worth backing which I did at 13/2 and 6's. I scamper around to watch the race and who's standing there but my mate I said somthing like "Did you get the 13/2?". no reply. The race is run and sure enough 'So n' So' wins  I said thanks for the tip and asked again did he get the 13/2, his reply "I did'nt back it!" Why? He had been going bad in Melbourne and he had backed something at about 20's as a get out. My mate was a punter who was very knowledgable and backed lots of winners, but this time he had gone off the rails and done his dough.
Without a disciplined approach to punting its very difficult to win. So once establishing a sound punting strategy, that has been proven a winner. 
 
"Stick To It'  
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 139 of 221 in Discussion 
From: maf Sent: 26/10/2003 8:16 PM
Maybe at Moonee valey, you have to put twice the weight on Track Performance....and Jockeys at the track...Performance...
egyptian raine, Shane Templeton said the workout at MV was the best he's ever seen in awhile at MV....thats why he tipped it...
 
Conclusion:  adapt Your calculations When doing Moonee Valley

Reply
Recommend  Message 140 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 26/10/2003 8:06 PM
Thanks Maf, tracks like MV can be a handful and I'm glad they don't race there every week. From my experience only about 10% of good horses have a very strong bias in favour of one track over another I call it the 'Chief De Beers Syndrome'. Although many horses style of racing sees them suited at certain types of tracks over others.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 141 of 221 in Discussion 
From: maf Sent: 26/10/2003 8:14 PM
I reckon this research(thread) will be in your Next Book.....It'd be interesting.....
You seen to have all bases covered....

Reply
Recommend  Message 142 of 221 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 27/10/2003 9:37 AM
If you fancy a horse later on, you should always have at least something on it earlier in the day when you have money.
 
You may lose a point or gain a point but the point is that you have at least backed it, even if it is $20, you should have something on it.
 
You should follow this policy always. You will finish in front.
 
It maintains your confidence in punting, and eliminates those ever so familiar "Hard Luck Harry" stories.
 
Running out of money usually costs punters money more often than not. (As a group once we didn't have enough money left to place a box 8 trifecta on a hard race at Flemington. Our numbers got in and it paid $58,000)
 
Your bank for the day should be at least 6 times your average bet which will see you out for the day.
 
ie: If you bet $100 a race or bet, you should have $600 in your pocket.
 
I know dozens of brilliant businessmen who are totally ruthless in their quest for greater earnings in the day to day running of their businesses.
Get them on a race track and they are complete donkeys.
 
They way I see it, you either have to have a set bank and system of placing your bets every race, OR bet up on selective races when you are confident.
 
I look at my "overs" market as Trifectas.
 
Good luck.

Reply
Recommend  Message 143 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 28/10/2003 2:13 PM
Taree 28/10/2003
Track Good
 
Race 3 C1 Hcp 1400m
#3 KENTUCKY IMAGE (100) 5/2
#1 IN THE RAG (85) 7/2
#2 KAYSEAN D'SUNSHINE (80) 9/2
#5 RAISE A DARLING (65) 7/1
#4 MY SONG (60) 9/1
#6 (35) 25/1, #7 (15) 80/1.
 
Race 4 C2 Hcp 1250m
#5 ALL BRASS (95) 3/1
#1 BRANDY AND ICE (90) 4/1
#3 PORT MACQUARIE (80) 5/1
#2 HERESY (70) 13/2
#4 (50) 12/1, #6 (45) 15/1, #7 (20) 60/1, 38 (40) 25/1, #9 (15) 80/1.
 
Race 7 C4 s/w 1600m
#6 CELARIUS (100) 9/4
#3 PRINCE HUMAM (70) 11/2
#2 LIFT YOUR GAME (60) 8/1
#5 BALIDOR (60) 8/1
#4 (45) 14/1, #7 (50) 12/1, #8 (10) 100/1, #9 (25) 40/1, #11 (40) 20/1, #13 (40) 20/1.
 
Race 8 Open Qty Hcp 1400m
#1 ROYAL INTEGRITY (110) 13/4
#2 CUT A CAPER (95) 9/2
#5 CENTILLATE (90) 11/2
#6 SEAWAY PRINCE (80) 7/1
#3 RAMRAID (70) 10/1
#4 (45) 25/1, #7 (35) 33/1, #8 (15) 100/1, #9 (25) 60/1, #10 (30) 50/1, #11 (35) 33/1, #12 (20) 80/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 144 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 28/10/2003 6:20 PM
With the running of Australia's number one WFA race at MV on Saturday for $3m and The Cup in a weeks time for even more prizemoney, today seemed a very ordinary days racing with the only meeting for rating being the Wingham Cup at Taree, Flemington it is not.
What have we got a class 1, class 2, class 4 and the 'Cup'. Not much joy in the first 2 races, then a couple of maidens (time for lunch) and then the two class races of the day with the DD. Race 7 The Class 4 see the shortest rated horse of the day CELARIUS at 9/4 should get 6's, but to our surprise up he comes at 9/1. Thats an overlay of 400%. We'll have him covered every which way win, double, exacta and trifecta. Rob Thompson does the business and up gets CELARIUS in the $6k Wingham Bowling Club Class 4, Nice win @ $9.70 exacta at $31 and the Trifecta at $294. The Cox Plate it is not, but for some its better!
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 145 of 221 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 28/10/2003 9:10 PM
Small meetings at times are really great and much easier than big city races.
 
I called into the tab yesterday, and saw 4 pacers in a race I think at Pinjarra.
 
Anyway had a look at the form and one of the four was 2nd up after many months lay off.....so I eliminated it......that 3 left.
 
Boxed up the 3 remaining, knowing that the 2nd up horse would weaken out.
 
Then took the $1.60 fav. with the other two in the tri for few dollars more.
 
Odds on fav won, 2nd up horse weakened to run 4th and Trifecta paid $8.85.
 
Thats a huge result....box trifecta cost $6.....got back $8.85.....odds on won took other two....cost $2 to cover .....got back $8.85......sensational prices.
 
Thats the easiest $100 bucks profit I've picked up for awhile.
 
Yes, you do not have to be out there on Derby or Cup day to win.

Reply
Recommend  Message 146 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 29/10/2003 10:39 AM
Werribee 29/10/2003
Track Dead.
 
Race 6 LR Werribee Cup Hcp 2000m
 
#3 CHAIRMAN'S CHOICE (80) 13/2
#6 IRISH CRUSADER (75) 7/1
#5 C'EST LE REVE (70) 8/1
#10 SPADING (70) 8/1
#2 BELLUS (65) 10/1
#11 TOOBORACK (60) 12/1
#1 ARCHAVE (55) 15/1
#8 CLASSIC BENBARA (55) 15/1
#14 LARROCHA (50) 20/1
#9 PRINCE HAL (40) 30/1
#13 CLOWNS (35) 40/1
#4 AQUIVER (25) 66/1
#12 WESTERN WATERS (20) 80/1
#15 MIGHTY EEL (20) 80/1
#7 SPIRIT OF WESTBURY (15) 100/1
#16 MYSTIC MORSE (15) 100/1
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 147 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 29/10/2003 4:55 PM
The Werribee Cup proved, to be as expected, an open affair with any number of chances. The money was their for the winner PRINCE BENBARA 15/1 @ 12/1 with some fortunate punters getting 20's, proved too strong for the top rater CHAIRMAN'S CHOICE 13/2 @ 10/1 with TOOBORACK 12/1 @ 25/1, thired. The punters picks, ARCHAVE 15/1 @ 11/2 & C'EST LE REVE 8/1 @ 11/2 finished worse than mid field.
A message from Gerry, to the owners of SPIRIT OF WESTBURY, I think I was kind in rating him at 100/1 today. He's been a good horse in the past, find him a nice paddock to retire in. 
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 148 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 30/10/2003 8:56 AM
To Many Races
 
With so many races these days, 50 covered by The NSW TAB yesterday there is always the temptation to 'have a bet'. Even on course the temptation is there, if you are in Sydney there are races from Melbourne, Brisbane  and lots of other places, Bookies and Tote at the ready to take your cash. With the local action relatively slow 35 minutes or more between races, there is that temptation to 'have a bet' afterall there's not much else to do on a racecourse, drink, eat, look at the horses and whatever you like to look at. So its not uncommon for a punter who has sat up all Friday night doing the form at Rosehill to start betting here there and everywhere, quite often irrationally. This kind of betting nearly always results in the punter doing his dough. As I said on an earlier post, disipline is most important, this is where the stay at home punter has it over his oncourse counterpart, at least at home he can find things to do between races, watch TV, cut the grass, post things on the internet, etc. Yesterday I had 6 races at Gosford and 1 from Werribee, so a fairly busy day, but often I only have 3 races for the day, so they can be well spaced, and there is that temptation to have a bet in the next from somewhere.
By concentrating maximum effort on a few races, a punter has a far better winning chance that the fellow who bet here, there and everywhere. 
 
Cheers Gerry. 

Reply
Recommend  Message 149 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 30/10/2003 9:13 PM
Canterbury 30/10/2003
Track Good
 
Race 5 Rest Hcp 1900m
#4 RED LIGHT LOVER (90) 4/1
#10 MY SOUTHERN BELLE (90) 4/1
#1 (45) 16/1, #2 (55) 12/1, #3 (60) 10/1, #5 (45) 16/1, #6 (40) 20/1, #7 (60) 10/1 #8 (45) 16/1, #9 (40) 20/1 #11 (20) 66/1.
 
Race 6 Rest Hcp 1550m
#2 DANEWIN CHIEF (95) 5/4
#1 (40) 12/1, #3 (60) 5/1, #4 (35) 14/1, #5 (45) 9/1, #6 (40) 12/1, #7 (10) 80/1, #8 (10) 80/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

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Recommend  Message 150 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 30/10/2003 10:28 PM
Looked a nothing meeting at Canterbury when I picked up the form this afternoon. Thinking, Saturday is not that far away. I had a look at the double races, I always look at the double races. Where had they dug these animals up from. Then I noticed Bob Thomsen's DANEWIN CHIEF was in against John Hawkes LAMBETH and some other animals. I think the punters will back Hawkes's horse with Beadman on, he'll be giving Danewin Chief ( a better horse at the same weight) a big start turning for home! Do the ratings and Danewin Chief (95) 5/4 is a ratings special over Lambeth (60) 5/1. Nice result at $3.37 and a $7 exacta.
 
Cheers Gerry. 
 
p/s Nice ride from Ron Stewart in the 5th, I was watching Beadman 'win' the race from my best, thinking the quinella will pay something at least, when up pops Ron on a horse I rated a 66/1chance.

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Recommend  Message 151 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 30/10/2003 11:28 PM
Keeping Records
 
The last of my Do's in the Do's and Don't was keeping records. I would think less than 1% of punters keep any sort of records of the bets they have, but it is important, if for no other reason than to see how your punting is progressing. If you start to keep an account of how you are going, don't be alarmed if your not winning on the first day, or the first week or even the first month, but you don't want to be too far behind after the first year.
I'm not an accountant, nor do you need be to keep records. If you bet on the net, a list of your bets can be generated at the site where you bet, Bookie or TAB, at the races I always use the race book to record my bets. Then at home on the computer ( pu it on disk) or in a note book you can make up a simple ins and outs record to show how you are punting. I personally only record two kinds of bets, and only a total for the day, win bets and exoctics I don't keep any record of the names of any horses I bet on. you can have as many columns as you think you need.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:58 PM Reply #11 »
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Recommend  Message 152 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 31/10/2003 10:06 PM
 
 
Flemington 1/11/2003
Track Slow
 
Race 3 G2 Hcp 2500m
 
#5 LEGIBLE (80) 7/2
#3 PIACHAY (60) 13/2
#4 FAWAZ (55) 8/1
#1 HENDERSON BAY (50) 11/1
#8 BULKHEAD (50) 11/1
#10 DANCE ON WOOD (50) 11/1
#9 SIR PENTIRE (45) 12/1
#2 (40) 15/1, #6 (25) 33/1, #7 (30) 30/1, #11 (20) 50/1, #12 (15) 66/1, #13 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 6 G1 Victoria Derby 2500m
 
#1 FACE VALUE (100) 9/2
#2 KEMPINSKY (95) 5/1
#4 PENITENTIARY (95) 5/1
#3 ELVSTROEM (90) 6/1
#5 NOBLE RED (75) 8/1
#6 (35) 40/1, # 7(40) 30/1, #8 (15) 100/1, #9 (10) 200/1, #10 (10) 200/1, #11(45) 25/1, #12 (25) 60/1, #13 (15) 100/1, #14 (40) 30/1.
 
Race 7 G1 Mackinnon Stks wfa 2000m
 
#1 FIELDS OF OMAGH (120) 6/4
#8 MUMMIFY (70) 7/1
#12 AMBULANCE (70) 7/1
#4 DISTINCTLY SECRET (65) 8/1
#2 (40) 25/1, #3 (10) 100/1, #5 (15) 80/1, #6 (25) 50/1, #7 (10) 100/1, #9 (5) 330/1, #11 (45) 16/1, #13 (50) 14/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 153 of 221 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 2/11/2003 5:36 PM
This can help you keep records, return good divies when successful that may keep you away from "side" bets because the money is there when you win. So it makes it all worthwhile.
 
Used on fittest horses....Trifecta Overs.
 

Top Fitness selection To Win

1 x 5 x 6 =                     12.50

1 x 3 x 7 =                      9.00

1 x 7 x 3 =                      9.00

1 x 4 x 4 = $1               12.00

1 x 3 x 4 = $1                 9.00

1 x 3 x 3 =                      3.00

1 x 2 x 7 =                      6.00

1 x 2 x 5 = $1.50          12.00

1 x 2 x 3 = $1                4.00

                                                            Total 76.50

Top Fitness selection to run 2nd.

4 x 1 x 7 =                   12.00

7 x 1 x 4 =                   12.00

                                                            Total 24.00

Top Fitness selection to run 3rd.

4 x 7 x 1 =                   12.00

                                                            Total 12.00

 

Total $112.50

 

Brief Summary of Sections and Units.

1 x 2 x 3             $7           on Trifecta

1 x 2 x 5             $2.50      on Trifecta

1 x 3 x 4             $3.00      on Trifecta

1 x 7 x 3             $0.50      on Trifecta

4 x 1 x 4            $1.00       on Trifecta

 

If you get the winner up, you will have most chances covered, and may give a good return. eg.

$7 x $200 = $1400... thats worth the effort.

If it runs 2nd you may win 100% on the race or lose 10% - 30%

If you run 3rd you may win 100% on the race or lose 10% - 30%

Obviously if your 1st two selections don't add up higher than a $5.00 win return, you bet differently.

You will need about another $10 to $3 on each top fitness fancied results. The bet would be different.

Good luck.

 
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 154 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 3/11/2003 9:32 PM
 
 
Flemington 4/11/2003
Track Dead.
 
Race 7 G1 Melbourne Cup Hcp 3200m
#2 MAMOOL (120) 5/1
#9 DISTINCTLY SECRET (95) 15/2
#12 MAKYBE DIVA (85) 10/1
#5 PENTASTIC (80) 12/1
#8 MR. PRUDENT (70) 16/1
#15 FRIGHTENING (70) 16/1
#10 HUGS DANCER (65) 20/1
#3 MUMMIFY (60) 25/1
#18 ZAGALIA (55) 30/1
#11 GREY SONG (50) 33/1
#14 TUMERIC (50) 33/1
#17 SHE'S ARCHIE (50) 33/1
#23 FAWAZ (45) 40/1
#6 COUNTY TYRONE (40) 50/1
#7 HOLY ORDERS (40) 50/1
#19 AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' (40) 50/1
#20 BIG PAT (35) 60/1
#24 YAKAMA (35) 60/1
#1 JARDINES LOOKOUT (30) 80/1
#4 MILLSTREET (25) 100/1
#13 PIACHAY (20) 140/1
#16 SCHUMPETER (10) 330/1
#21 BOLD BAND (10) 330/1
#22 DEBBEN (5) 660/1
 
Good Luck
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 155 of 221 in Discussion 
From: wenona Sent: 4/11/2003 10:16 AM
Hi Gerry - I've pretty much given up the horses for the poker tables, but couldn't resist dusting off my special Melbourne Cup Spreadsheet - here are my ratings to 100%
 

Req'd

 

No

$67.08

1

Jardine's Lookout

$9.30

2

Mamool

-

3

Mummify

$672.57

4

Millstreet

$21.18

5

Pentastic

$21.18

6

County Tyrone

$144.64

7

Holy Orders

$15.24

8

Mr. Prudent

$31.11

9

Distinctly Secret

$10.96

10

Hugs Dancer

$7.89

11

Grey Song

$5.99

12

Makybe Diva

$458.01

13

Piachay

$27.87

14

Tumeric

$8.80

15

Frightening

$14,541.94

16

Schumpeter

$144.64

17

She's Archie

$21.18

18

Zagalia

$27.87

19

Ain't Seen Nothin'

$190.32

20

Big Pat

$792.95

21

Bold Bard

$458.01

22

Debben

$43.24

23

Fawaz

$53.85

24

Yakama

good luck all wenona


Reply
Recommend  Message 156 of 221 in Discussion 
From: matttherat² Sent: 4/11/2003 10:30 AM
Interested to know how you guys rate the MC when probably the most important variable is the horse's ability to get the 2 miles?  Are your MC ratings historically very accurate?
 
Good luck!

Reply
Recommend  Message 157 of 221 in Discussion 
From: wenona Sent: 4/11/2003 10:49 AM
Matt - I'm no breeding expert so I can only look at the horses form. My spreadsheet takes into account the horses previous best rating in the 3000-3400 range, it's win and place record in the same range, it's closest winning distance to 3200m, and the distance range of it's lead up form, and the distance of it's qualifying run in automatically calculating a adjustment regarding how it will handle 3200. I can also put in a discretionary figure but I haven't done that for any runner this year. The adjustment does effect the final figures a fair bit - it's the main factor is say horses like Pentastic and Distinctly Secret being longer than you might expect and horses like Mr Prudent and County Tyrone being shorter.

Reply
Recommend  Message 158 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 4/11/2003 12:19 PM
 
 
 
Flemington 4/11/2003
Track Good.
 
Race 7 G1 Melbourne Cup Hcp 3200m
#2 MAMOOL (125) 9/2
#9 DISTINCTLY SECRET (100) 15/2
#12 MAKYBE DIVA (85) 10/1
#8 MR. PRUDENT (80) 12/1
#5 PENTASTIC (75) 14/1
#15 FRIGHTENING (75) 14/1
#10 HUGS DANCER (70) 20/1
#14 TUMERIC (60) 25/1
#18 ZAGALIA (55) 30/1
#11 GREY SONG (50) 33/1
#23 FAWAZ (50) 33/1
#17 SHE'S ARCHIE (45) 40/1
#1 JARDINES LOOKOUT (40) 50/1
#6 COUNTY TYRONE (40) 50/1
#7 HOLY ORDERS (40) 50/1
#19 AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' (40) 50/1
#20 BIG PAT (40) 50/1
#24 YAKAMA (35) 60/1
#13 PIACHAY (25) 100/1
#4 MILLSTREET (20) 140/1
#21 BOLD BAND (10) 330/1
#16 SCHUMPETER (5) 660/1
#22 DEBBEN (5) 660/1
 
Good Luck
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 159 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 4/11/2003 1:40 PM
Hi Matt,
 
ABILITY AT THE DISTANCE IN THIS CLASS is a vital factor in a race like this, basically if you can't stay you can't win. In my ratings I would normally give 'distance' an average 3/50, in the Cup I've started with an average 7, so that to say a horse I rate to be average over 3200m at Flemington on a good track in a G1 etc, etc, rates 7, eg here  Distintly Secret, I thought his run in 2002 was fairly average, I think he may be marginally better as a 5yo this time, other runs in races of 2400m etc have been quite good, has done a lot of racing at 2400m+ , but I think he's not disadvantaged by the distance. Mamool I rate 11 for distance, I think he has class at the distance which rates him highly, looking at the prizemoney he's picked up he been in some very good races and winning them, I think the stable is making an all out effort to win with this bloke, they want this race, Millstreet might even be a pacemaker for him. At the other end of the scale Piachay, a winner at G1 3200m, but there is nothing to suggest G1 3200m today is in his favour so I rate him only a 5 for distance. the right at the bottom is a horse like Schumpeter rates 0 for distance there is nothing to suggest he is going to show any ability today at 3200m, the class is beyond him.
My best wins from rating on The Cup have been Tawriffic rated him 8/1 got 30/1 and Kingston Rule 4/1 @ 9's. I have had other winners but they are the 2 best overlays I've had, M&P was a great result for me as well but much shorter odds.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 160 of 221 in Discussion 
From: matttherat² Sent: 4/11/2003 1:54 PM
Thanks Gerry good luck today.

Reply
Recommend  Message 161 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 4/11/2003 2:08 PM
Matt,
With DS I ment to say has not done a lot of racing at 2400m+
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 162 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 6/11/2003 8:41 AM
Nice effort Wenona, rating the winner on top at 5's.Stick with it. My youngest son also rated the winner on top using the tried and true method of 'I like the name' had $20 of mine on it, I was the bookie, now claiming me for $200 ( claiming the $20 stake on top of the div). Another client owes $20 for Zagalia, but not much chance of collecting, she's never been a noted payer in the past. 
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 163 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknametriple-7- Sent: 6/11/2003 9:54 AM
lol Gerry, some interesting clients, ha ha.
 
Well done on the Cup guys.
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 164 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 7/11/2003 9:53 PM
Know Your Enemy
 
Punters are always being told about the 'market' but many have little understanding what this market is all about. We all know what a fruit market is, and a car market and many of us even know what a stock market is. Markets all have one thing in common, they are a place where commodities  are bought and sold. To form a market there are three essentials, buyers, sellers and something to trade. In most markets these are easy to see, but not so in a punting market, but the three essentials are present, but they are a little harder to spot. The buyers (punters) are there, so to are the sellers (bookmakers) but what are they trading? The answer is simple only one thing 'Winning Chances' . Every time you place a bet you purchase the winning chance of that particular runner. The bookmaker like all sellers trys to obtain the best return he can for a sale (a bet) by offering the worst possible odds about that horses winning chance and still make the sale. The punter on the otherhand trys to buy the winning chance at the lowest price possible ( the highest odds). As punters we need to understand the betting market. It's our objective to not just obtain odds equal to or above our rated odds but to obtain the best possible odds available to us.
If you bet on course with bookmakers its important to watch the market, including the Tote market, understanding bookmakers percentages and bet when you think you are getting the best odds possible. The same applies to the stay at home punter, always bet where the return will be at the maximum. Afterall one bookies money is as good as anothers.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 165 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 7/11/2003 11:07 PM
Randwick 8/11/2003
Track Good
 
Race 1 3yo's Hcp 1600m
 
#1 YES BOSS (105) 'evens'
#4 DESERT RANSOM (75) 11/4
#6 MAGIC QUEST (50) 8/1
#5 RAID AND PILLAGE (40) 12/1
 
Race 2 4yo+ s/c Hcp 1600m
 
#2 OMINOUS (110) 5/4
#1 RAMINCO (70) 9/2
#3 BLUE PATRIARCH (60) 13/2
#4 SUPER IRISH (55) 7/1
#5 (20) 40/1, #7 (15) 60/1, #8 (30) 25/1.
 
Race 4 Transition Hcp 2000m
 
#5 CONQUEST (100) 9/4
#3 STAR OF THE SEAS (85) 13/4
#2 CHAINSAW CHARLIE (65) 6/1
#1 SADARAR (45) 14/1
#6 COSMIC CROWN (45) 14/1
#4 (20) 50/1, #7 (30) 30/1, #8 (40) 20/1, #9 (15) 60/1.
 
Race 6 3yo Fillies Hcp 1200m
 
#2 SILK AND MONEY (105) 13/4
#1 MIMZICAL (100) 4/1
#3 GLIMPSING (100) 4/1
#4 BOUCHETTE (70) 9/1
#5 CELLAR EDITION (60) 12/1
#6 (50) 20/1, #7 (40) 30/1, #9 (35) 40/1.
 
Race 7 Flying Hcp 1100m
 
#3 MACHIONESS (95) 7/2
#1 MARWIN GOLD (90) 9/2
#8 CATACLYSM (80) 6/1
#10 LORD REVOQUE (70) 8/1
#6 PRIME CENTURY (65) 9/1
#2 (35) 30/1, #4 (40) 25/1, #5 (50) 16/1, #7 (20) 60/1, #9 (50) 16/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 166 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 9/11/2003 6:05 PM
Punting Made Easy
 
Some of us think, why study form! when its so much easier to subscribe to a tipping service, no long hours of form study just have the winners sms'd to your mobile phone, or just ring some 1900 number, seems so easy. Let me say here and now I'm sure there are some of these services that do ok, but they all have one inherant problem the need to supply winners, lots of winners. This need to supply winners often results in many short priced tips which are most often overbet and therefore poor value. In the long term the punter may find himself backing lots of winners but making no profit.
The same can be said for backing the tips of a newspaper, tv or radio expert, and some of them are experts. Their problem often is they have to supply tips in too many races, even in races that if they had a choice they would'nt tip. One expert, who is an expert and puts so much time into his tips is Tony Brassel. Tony's tips are first rate, but he has a problem, he's too good. If Tony declares a horse a special, everyone knowing his reputation jumps in, its odds tumble its a good bet at 2/1 but poor value at 4/6, they may well win 50% of the time, but they are overbet. 
I remember once saying to a bookie that a horse was given out as the best bet of the day by one expert ( and the expert was having a good trot). The bookie said "Thats bloody good!" "Why?"........." Don't like it.....we'll bet 6/4.....its a 3/1 chance", got beat too.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 11:02 PM Reply #12 »
Reply
Recommend  Message 167 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameSmiley5110 Sent: 11/11/2003 11:13 AM
Sky Channel is a big underachiever in my view. As you have said Gerry, Brassel is as good an expert as you will find, but why doesn't he say when giving his best bets or any selection for that matter what he thinks a fair price is? The channel puts up ratings for all their races, but doesn't suggest what good value is. In my view the racing media hasn't progressed that much since the Scott revolution. You still get tipsters giving out tips on races that are impossible to quantify and the callers get too much time before the actual race to give out their potted philosophies on what is going to win or not. I could provide a list of them, but it is too boring. I'd like a dollar for every time I've heard Ian Craig say "last start winner within seven days, that's a system that a lot of people follow" for instance. Yes Ian, they follow them down the sewer along with all the other rubbish.
 
I guess the positive thing for us is that the media will probably continue to babble on in the same vein for the next upteen years, and consequently give us value such as Carnegie Pops at Flemington this week. 40/1 shots like that are worth waiting for.
 
Cheers

Smiley

Reply
Recommend  Message 168 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 11/11/2003 12:00 PM
Back To The Bread and Butter.
 
Cessnock 11/11/2003
Track Good
 
Race 2 Cl 1 Hcp 900m
#1 DANASH HEIR (90) 6/4
#6 LANATIUS (65) 7/2
#2 DE CREAM (55) 11/2
#3 (40) 11/1, #4 (35) 14/1, #5 (25) 25/1, #7 (5) 100/1.
 
Race 5 Cl 5 Hcp 1150m
#2 RAFFIN GLOW (110) 6/4
#3 MAPLE SYRUP (70) 11/2
#1 IDOMINATE (60) 8/1
#5 CYNATHEA (60) 8/1
#8 SPY'S ECCLIPSE (50) 10/1
#4 (25) 30/1, #6 (10) 100/1 #7 (35) 20/1.
 
Race 6 Cl 1 s/w 2100m
#7 WHOLE LOTTA ROSIE (85) 5/2
#3 HURRICANE HAWKE (75) 13/4
#1 BROCCO BOY (60) 6/1
#5 FLASH TRACK (55) 7/1
#2 (15) 60/1, #4 (40) 14/1, #6 (35) 16/1, #8 (15) 60/1, #9 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 7 Open Hcp 1350m
#1 AZRAQ (100) 2/1
#2 LET'S TALK TREASON (75) 4/1
#4 BRIDGEE BOO (70) 5/1
#3 NOBLE DRAGON (55) 8/1
#7 LONELY PYRAMUL (50) 10/1
#5 (25) 40/1, #6 (30) 30/1, #8 (20) 50/1.
 
Race 8 Cl 2 Hcp 1550m
#3 CASING (105) 11/4
#2 KAYSEAN D'SUNSHINE (95) 7/2
#1 DANE ROYALE (85) 9/2
#6 BRIDAL GLOW (75) 6/1
#4 (45) 20/1, #7 (40) 25/1, #8 (20) 60/1, #9 (25) 50/1, #10 (15) 100/1, #11 (20) 60/1, #12 (10) 140/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 169 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 11/11/2003 2:26 PM
Nice start to the day with excellent value in race 2 LANATUS 7/2 @ $8.78 with Sportingbets MaxiDiv. The fav Danish Heir being badly overbet on the TAB's. In the Value Stakes MaxiDiv $8.78 comes out a clear winner from BetaDiv $7.24 The NSWTAB $7.10 in 3rd place, with the Satchel Swinggers $6 bring up the rear.
 
Cheers Gerry.  

Reply
Recommend  Message 170 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 11/11/2003 3:34 PM
Smiley,
That is often the case, where a 'tipster' will push the chances of one horse at the exclsion off all others. This leads the bulk of punters to 'follow the tip' with a snowballing effect, others jump in with the notion its so short it must be the winner. The smart punter exploits this by looking for value amongst the other runners. So many of these good things get rolled, not because of any 'skullduggery' by jockeys or trainers or anyone else, but because it was'nt a 4/6 chance but rather a 3/1 chance with several others who around the same chance, remember a horse at 3/1 to win is about a 7/4 chance to run unplaced.
 
Cheers Gerry  

Reply
Recommend  Message 171 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 11/11/2003 6:31 PM
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Cessnock 11/11/03
 
Race 2
#3 GIRLYTHING 11/1 $8.50=$0
#6 LANATIUS 7/2 $25=$219.50
Race 5
#2 RAFFIN GLOW 6/4 $58=$0
#5 CYNATHEA 8/1 $13=$0
Race 6
#3 HURRICANE HAWKE 13/4 $27=$0
#4 AM HERE 14/1 $7=$188.70
#5 FLASH TRACK 7/1 $12=$0
Race7
#2 LET'S TALK TREASON 4/1 $23=$169.50
#4 BRIDGEE BOO 5/1 $20=$0
#7 LONELY PYRAMUL 10/1 $8.50=$0
Race 8
#6 BRIDAL GLOW 6/1 $14=$0
 
Outlay $216 Return $577.70 Profit $361.70
Total Outlay $216 Total Return $577.70 Profit $361.70 (167%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 172 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameAussieDude1983 Sent: 11/11/2003 9:33 PM
Very nice work gerry,my your luck continue. Keep up the good work

Reply
Recommend  Message 173 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 11/11/2003 10:35 PM
LUCK good or ill fortune, success due to chance, due to luck rather than skill or design or merit. LUCK Oxford Dictionary.
 
Thanks Aussie.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 174 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 13/11/2003 9:00 AM
Wyong 13/11/2003
Track Good
 
Race 1 Cl 1 Hcp 1350m
#1 LEEWARDS (100) 6/4
#5 DUSTY DEBIL (60) 6/1
#6 GOOD COUNTRY (55) 7/1
#2 ASH ROSE (50) 9/1
#3 (40) 14/1, #4 (40) 14/1, #7 (20) 40/1, #8 (15) 50/1.
 
Race 6 Cl 2 Hcp 1600m
#3 FOREIGN CASH (75) 6/1
#1 RACER'S SUCCESS (65) 8/1
#2 MILLFIELD (65) 8/1
#9 BEAU DENNIS (65) 8/1
#6 TO THE WIND (60) 10/1
#12 KIWI IMPOST (60) 10/1
#4 (50) 15/1, #5 (50) 15/1, #7 (50) 15/1, #8 (20) 60/1, #10 (45) 20/1, #11 (40) 25/1, #13 (15) 100/1.
 
Race 8 Cl 4 Hcp 1000m
#6 LOYOLA'S LASS (90) 4/1
#1 NETREPRENEUR (85) 9/2
#2 QUADRANGLE (85) 9/2
#4 GO GO APOLLO (70) 7/1
#3 KENWEST (65) 8/1
#5 (25) 50/1, #7 (50) 15/1, #8 (35) 30/1, #9 (20) 60/1, #10 (30) 40/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 175 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 14/11/2003 7:46 PM
 
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Wyong 13/11/03
 
Race 1
#5 DUSTRY DEBIL 6/1 $12=$0
#6 GOOD COUNTRY 7/1 $10=$0
Race 6
#3 FOREIGN CASH 6/1 $15=$0
#9 BEAU DENNIS 8/1 $9.50=$0
#12 KIWI IMPOST 10/1 $8.50=$0
Race 8
#2 QUADRANGLE 9/2 $19=$0
#4 GO GO APOLLO 7/1 $12=$0
#6 LOYOLA'S LASS 4/1 $19=$0
 
Outlay $105 Return $0 Loss $105
Total Outlay $321 Total Return $577.70 Profit $256.70 (80%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 176 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 19/11/2003 10:47 AM
Hawkesbury 19/11/2003
Track Good
 
Race 3 Cl 1 Hcp 1400m
#2 RAGATZ (90)??? 3/1
#3 STAR PUNCH (80) 9/2
#4 THE CEDARS (65) 13/2
#1 (60) 8/1, #5 (60) 8/1, #6 (45) 14/1, #7 (55) 9/1, #8 (15) 80/1.
 
Race 4 Cl 2 Hcp 1200m
#3 REBEL GODDESS (110) 7/4
#2 LUSTEGIC (70) 6/1
#6 ICE GOLD (70) 6/1
#4 STEAMY BEAU (65) 7/1
#1 (45) 15/1, #5 (40) 20/1, #7 (50) 12/1, #8 (15) 80/1.
 
Race 6 Cl 1 Hcp 1600m
#1 OCHO (100)??? 9/4
#3 HASTA MANANA (90) 3/1
#5 MR JAYEFKAY (70) 11/2
#2 SHEER HELL(60) 8/1
#4 (25) 40/1, #6 (10) 100/1, #7 (40) 20/1, #8 (15) 60/1, #9 (15) 60/1, #10 (30) 30/1.
 
Race 7 Open Hcp 1400m
#1 CARAEL BOY (100) 5/2
#8 SABRE KNIGHT (95) 3/1
#2 GABFEST (60) 9/1
#9 SCHAHIAR (60) 9/1
#6 LACHAIM (55) 10/1
#3 (45) 16/1, #5 (15) 80/1, #7 (50) 14/1.
 
Race 8 Cl 4 Hcp 1400m
#2 KEEPING THE FAITH (90) 9/4
#1 ARCHITRAVE (65) 9/2
#6 ANTIENE (60) 6/1
#3 MISSISSIPPI RIVER (50) 9/1
#4 (40) 14/1, #5 (20) 40/1, #7 (15) 60/1, #8 (40) 14/1, #9 (25) 30/1, #10 (10) 100/1.

Cheers Gerry.

 

 


Reply
Recommend  Message 177 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 19/11/2003 7:11 PM
 
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Hawksbury 19/11/03
 
Race 3
#3 STAR PUNCH 9/2 $16=$0
#5 INCOME STREAM 8/1 $9.50=$0
#7 TUSCAN MAGIC 9/1 $10=$0
Race 4
#2 LUSTEGIC 6/1 $15=$0
#3 REBEL GODDESS 7/4 $45=$0
#4 STEAMY BEAU 7/1 $13=$176.40
Race 6
#3 HASTA MANANA 3/1 $34=$127.80
#5 MR JAYFKAY 11/2 $13=$0
#10 GUNNADO 30/1 $3.50=$0
Race 7
#6 LACHAIM 10/1 $9.50=$0
#7 LIVE IN FEAR 14/1 $5=$0
#8 SABRE KNIGHT 3/1 $34=$0
Race 8
#2 KEEPING THE FAITH 9/4 $29=$239.50
#3 MISSISSIPPI RIVER 9/1 $8.50=$0
#5 KENMARO 40/1 $2.50=$0
 
Outlay $247.50 Return $543.70 Profit $296.20
Total Outlay $568.50 Total Return $1121.40 Profit $552.90 (97%)
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

Reply
Recommend (1 recommendation so far)  Message 178 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 20/11/2003 8:53 AM
A Bird In The Hand Is It Worth Two In The Bush?
 
One of the obvious advantages of taking 'fixed odds' as opposed to those based on TAB dividends or SP is the return is gauaranteed no matter which way the odds fluctuate. This can be a decided advantage, particularly when betting in a strong market with plenty of compertition for the punters dollar. Unfortunately when betting on the net with corporate bookies, with only the one fixed price, often with the market set at an unrealisticly high percentage, thats why I've advocated the TAB plus option as being the more viable with a much lower market percentage. The down side to this option is the requirment to estimate the final dividend some minutes before the jump. I find in the vast majority of cases I can do this with a fair degree of accuracy, thus identifying the value runners. Alas, as with any guesswork, at times mistakes are  made, no one can foresee late plungers which can result in a runner firming from odds that were apparent value to 'unders'. This usually happens to runners who estimated odds are rather close to their rated odds. As I said before I err in favour of having a bet. If a runner is rated at 3/1 and you estimate its price at 4's, only to see it firm to 11/4, don't be disappointed for two reasons, one, in the majority of cases you will be correct and a good overlay will be obtained, and secondly, as one horse firms, and if you have had multiple win bets, others ease, giving them even greater value, these runners win their fair share of races as well.
As I said 'I err in favour of having a bet'. Why? One of the secrets of successful punting, is turnover. Punting methods which offer only a few bets per month are unlikely to return consistent profits, as returns will fluctuate considerably, from nothing some months to many times your turnover at other times. Regular turnover, with regular winners equals regular profits. The risk factor is reduced.
 
Cheers Gerry.

 

 


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The number of members that recommended this message. 0 recommendations  Message 179 of 221 in Discussion 
Sent: 25/11/2003 2:16 PM
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Recommend  Message 180 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 25/11/2003 4:43 PM
Taree 25/11/2003
Track Slow/Heavy
 
Race 7 Open Hcp 1250m
#7 CLASSIC DANE (95) 5/2
#2 SHOWER OF STEEL (85) 13/4
#6 GOOD CHIEF (65) 6/1
#3 (25) 40/1, #4 (35) 25/1, #5 (55) 9/1, #8 (55) 9/1, #9 (20) 50/1, #10 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 8 Cl 4 Hcp 1600m
#1 CELEBRATORY (90) 9/4
#2 DESK (70) 9/2
#5 ON THE MARKET (60) 6/1
#4 (35) 16/1, #6 (40) 14/1, #7 (50) 9/1, #8 (20) 40/1, #9 (30) 25/1, #10 (10) 100/1, #11 (5) 200/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 181 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 27/11/2003 8:15 AM
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Taree 25/11/03
 
Race 7
#7 CLASSIC DANE 5/2 $40=$0
#8 BRADETTE 9/1 $7.50=$0
Race 8
#2 DESK 9/2 $20=$0
#5 ON THE MARKET 6/1 $13=$0
#7 PERPETRATE 9/1 $12=$0
 
Outlay $92.50 Return $0 Loss $92.50
Total Outlay $661 Total Return $1121.40 Profit $460.40 (70%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 11:04 PM Reply #13 »
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The number of members that recommended this message. 0 recommendations  Message 182 of 221 in Discussion 
Sent: 27/11/2003 8:37 AM
This message has been deleted by the author.

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Recommend  Message 183 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 27/11/2003 8:39 AM
 
Gosford 27/11/2003
Track Dead/Slow
 
Race 1 Cl 2 Hcp 2100m
#3 SPRITZER (100) 6/4
#2 EBONY WOOD (70) 9/2
#4 DANESALSA (65) 5/1
#6 AM HERE (60) 13/2
#5 (20) 40/1, #8 (40) 15/1, #9 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 7 Trans Hcp 1000m
#1 SWITCHED ON TIME (100) 7/4
#5 PLEASE (80) 13/4
#4 DANNY DANCER (70) 9/2
#3 COMPETE (50) 10/1
#6 (15) 60/1, #7 (15) 60/1, #8 (10) 100/1, #9 (35) 20/1.
 
Race 8 Trans Hcp 1600m
#6 PRECISE TIMING (65) 13/4
#7 CHAINSAW CHARLIE (60) 9/2
#1 RACE THE ACE (45) 7/1
#4 SIR REDFORD (45) 7/1
#10 CHINHOYI (45) 7/1
#9 CATCHER (40) 10/1
#2 (20) 30/1, #8 (20) 30/1, #11 (10) 60/1.
 
Race 9 Cl 5 Hcp 1200m
#2 RAFFIN GLOW (75) 7/4
#1 MYTHICAL BID (50) 5/1
#6 QUADRANGLE (40) 8/1
#8 BALGOLD (40) 8/1
#4 (15) 30/1, #5 (15) 30/1, #7 (25) 16/1, #9 (20) 25/1, #10 (10) 50/1, #11 (10) 50/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 184 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 27/11/2003 8:17 PM
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Gosford 27/11/03
 
Race 1
#2 EBONY WOOD 9/2 $20=$0
#6 AM HERE 13/2 $12=$0
#8 BEAU DENNIS 15/1 $6.50=$0
Race 7
#1 SWITCHED ON TIME 7/4 $50=$234.50
#4 DANNY DANCER 9/2 $20=$0
Tack upgraded to Good after race 7
 
Outlay $108.50 Return $234.50 Profit $126.00
Total Outlay $769.50 Total Return $1355.90 Profit $586.40 (76%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 185 of 221 in Discussion 
From: Lucky Sent: 27/11/2003 8:38 PM
lovely work Gerry

Reply
Recommend  Message 186 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 27/11/2003 10:56 PM
Grafton 28/11/2003
Track Good/Dead
 
Race 7 Open Hcp 1100m
#1 A TENNER (90) 5/2
#4 SENSACHE (90) 5/2
#3 KARATE (65) 5/1
#2 RAMSTADIUS (40) 16/1
#5 (30) 25/1, #6 (25) 30/1, #7 (10) 100/1, #8 (35) 20/1, #9 (5) 200/1, #10 (20) 50/1, #11 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 8 Cl 5 Hcp 1400m
#1 FREESPINS (105) 6/4
#4 ASCOTELLO (70) 11/2
#3 DUGAN DAN (60) 8/1
#2 CREPITATE (50) 11/1
#8 LITTLE BAMBI (50) 11/1
#5 (15) 60/1, #6 (20) 50/1, #7 (35) 20/1, #9 (25) 30/1, #10 (15) 60/1, #11 (10) 100/1, #12 (20) 50/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 187 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameHappy®1 Sent: 28/11/2003 5:58 PM
nice work  gerry
even with  the  6/4  pop out  they  still bet  11/2
wish i,d had  some of the double

Reply
Recommend  Message 188 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 28/11/2003 7:50 PM
Thanks Happy,
The TAB double was a terrific overlay @ $36 priced it at 15/1. The revised market for race 8 was:
Race 8 Cl 5 Hcp 1400m
#1 FREESPINS (0) scr
#4 ASCOTELLO (70) 11/4
#3 DUGAN DAN (60) 4/1
#2 CREPITATE (50) 13/2
#8 LITTLE BAMBI (50) 13/2
#5 (0) scr, #6 (20) 30/1, #7 (35) 12/1, #9 (25) 20/1, #10 (15) 40/1, #11 (10) 60/1, #12 (20) 30/1.
I've struck a bit of a purple patch since I started this thred. I was not surprised with the way the 7th panned out. A Tenner with his class , I did think he had a few neg's today. In the 8th very surprised with the betting Dugan Dan a fair bush horse but not @ 6/4 in Class 5.
 
 
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Grafton 28/11/03
 
Race 7
#2 RAMSTADIUS 16/1 $6.50=$0
#3 KARATE 5/1 $17=$0
#4 SENSACHE 5/2 $29=$207.90
Race 8
#4 ASCOTELLO 11/4 $29=$210.80
#8 LITTLE BAMBI 13/2 $13=$0
 
Outlay $94.50 Return $418.70 Profit $324.20
Total Outlay $864 Total Return $1774.60 Profit $910.60 (105%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 189 of 221 in Discussion 
From: wenona Sent: 29/11/2003 12:55 AM
Fantastic stuff Gerry   Looks like you'll have plenty for Christmas

Reply
Recommend  Message 190 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 29/11/2003 10:31 AM
Ratings V Tips
 
This question is often asked. Is the punter better off betting to ratings or just backing a tip(s)? Weather they be his own, from someone else, or something he has purchased. The short answer is I don't know, as I don't know the quality of the ratings or the quality of the tips.
The essential difference being the punter betting to ratings is basically prepared to back each and any runner in a race, providing he can obtain his preceived value, where as the tips punter has homed in on one or maybe two runners in a race as the most likely winner and is willing to bet regardless of price. In many cases the tips punter is required to do a lot less work as he will only consider a few runners as chances and will concentrate his form study on them, dismissing the others as no chance.
With ratings to be accurate as possiable every runner has to be considered on its merits, even the rank outsider, its form has to be studied just as the favourites is. Its only in this way can ratings ever be a true reflection of the relative chances of each runner in a race. 
 
Cheers Gerry.

 

 


Reply
Recommend  Message 191 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 2/12/2003 9:49 AM
Scone 2/12/2003
Track Dead/Good
 
Race 2 Cl 2 hcp 900m
#5 LANATIUS (75) 5/2
#4 DANISH HEIR (65) 7/2
#8 MON SEUL AMOUR (55) 5/1
#2 BOLD IDEAS (50) ??? 7/1
#3 (25) 25/1, #6 (30) 20/1, #7 (35) 14/1.
 
Race 7 Open Hcp 1500m
#3 BEAR CANYON (80) 2/1
#2 TARA EXPRESS (60) 9/2
#1 LEGAL BRIEF (50) 13/2
#4 GALLANT FIGHTER (40) 10/1
#6 GOLD CHIEF (35) 12/1
#5 (20) 30/1, #7 (20) 30/1, #8 (10) 60/1, #9 (25) 20/1.
 
Race 8 Cl 1 Hcp 1100m
#1 BACI (105) 7/4
#3 FOLOOS (70) 11/2
#4 LISETTE (70) 11/2
#5 PAMPERA BULLET (60) 7/1
#6 TIARA MISS (50) 11/1
#2 (20) 50/1, #7 (25) 30/1, #9 (10) 100/1, #10 (10) 100/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 192 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 2/12/2003 1:33 PM
Revised market Race 2 Scone
 
 
Scone 2/12/2003
Track Dead/Good
 
Race 2 Cl 2 hcp 900m
#5 LANATIUS (0) scr
#4 DANISH HEIR (65) 9/4
#8 MON SEUL AMOUR (55) 13/4
#2 BOLD IDEAS (50) ??? 9/2
#3 (25) 16/1, #6 (30)14 /1, #7 (35) 12/1.
 
Good start to the day with Rob Thompson speedy ride on Mon Seul Amour.
 
Cheers Gerry. 

Reply
Recommend (1 recommendation so far)  Message 193 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 2/12/2003 6:46 PM
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Scone 2/12/03
 
Race 2
#7 ZURG 9/1 $12=$0
#8 MON SEUL AMOUR 13/4 $20=$254.60
Race 7
#1 LEGAL BRIEF 13/2 $13=$0
#4 GALLANT FIGHTER 10/1 $8.50=$0
#5 EXACT CHANGE 30/1 $3.50=$0
Race 8
#1 BACI 7/4 $50=$0
#5 PAMPERA BULLET 7/1 $14=$0
 
 
Outlay $121 Return $254.60 Profit $133.60
Total Outlay $985 Total Return $2029.20 Profit $1044.20 (106%)
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 194 of 221 in Discussion 
From: FastEddy Sent: 3/12/2003 8:20 AM
Well done there Gerry , people wanting Value in their betting should check this thread out and see that it does work when your prepared to do the form and give a horse a rating/price , and not just take any price offered.
Please keep it up , oh and can I have your thought's on a race today at EF -R6 , ta mate.

Reply
Recommend  Message 195 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 3/12/2003 2:38 PM
Kensington 3/12/2003
Track Dead
 
Race 6 Rest Hcp 1550m
#6 HEC OF A PARTY (110) 2/1
#1 ERIN BEE (65) 13/2
#2 SHARP ENOUGH (65) 13/2
#8 MAGIQUE (60) 8/1
#7 HASTY BELLE (50) 12/1
#3 (30) 30/1, #5 (20) 60/1, #9 (15) 80/1, #10 (45) 15/1, #11 (40) 20/1.
 
Race 7 Rest Hcp 1400m
#2 ALIVE 'N' WELL (75) 4/1
#4 PENSIVE WARFARE (75) 4/1
#5 EYES AND TEES (65) 11/2
#3 TERRIBLE TAURUS (55) 8/1
#1 GRAND SUCCESS (50)??? 11/1
#6 MITIGATE (50) 11/1
#7 (20) 50/1, #8 (15) 60/1, #9 (40) 20/1, #10 (30) 30/1, #11 (20) 50/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 196 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 3/12/2003 2:43 PM
Eddy,
I e-mailed you but got a non delivery back.
 
Hi Eddy,
I'm as rusty as an old gate re Brisbane form. Looks a field of mostly 'non winners'. I would say Starcraft looks to have the potential and Just Polite on old form has raced better horses than these. If the track remains a genuine dead check how they go in some of the earlier races as there are a few back markers in this and they might be right out action if the front runners are suited.
 
Eagle Farm 3/12/2003
Track Dead
 
Race 6 Cl 3 Hcp 1600m
 
#6 JUST POLITE (90) 7/2
#4 STARCRAFT (85) 4/1
#5 SUNFAIR (75) 5/1
#1 WINNING FRIENDS (50) 12/1
#3 RULANCER (50) 12/1
#2 MAST (45) 15/1
#10 GAELIC PRINCE (45) 15/1
#7 (25) 40/1, #8 (10) 100/1, #9 (30) 30/1, #11 (15) 80/1, #12 (15) 80/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

  • Group 1
  • User 8
  • Posts: 15023
« 2009-Jan-07, 11:05 PM Reply #14 »
Reply
Recommend  Message 197 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 4/12/2003 8:49 AM
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Kensington 3/12/03
 
Race 6
#2 SHARP ENOUGH 13/2 $13=$0
#7 HASTY BELLE 12/1 $8.50=$0
#8 MAGIQUE MISS 8/1 $10=$0
Race 7
#2 ALIVE 'N' WELL 4/1 $23=$0
#5 EYES AND TEES 11/2 $17=$0
#10 GOOD COUNTY 30/1 $3.50=$0
 
Outlay $75 Return $0 Loss $75
Total Outlay $1060 Total Return $2029.20 Profit $962.20 (91%)
 
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 198 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 4/12/2003 8:58 AM
Hawkesbury 4/12/2003
Track Dead/Slow
 
Race 3 Cl 2 Hcp 1600m
#1 LEEWARDS (100) 7/4
#3 SPIRE (75) 4/1
#2 FREEROLLER (65) 11/2
#6 INFO MISS (65) 11/2
#5 (40) 16/1, #7 (15) 60/1, #8 (20) 50/1, #9 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 8 H'bury Gold Cup Open Hcp 1600m
#11 ON A HIGH (80) 4/1
#4 BACK IN DUBAI (75) 5/1
#13 SCENIC BOOM (70) 6/1
#2 STOWAY (60) 9/1
#14 TAKAS (60) 9/1
#15 VITAL AGREEMENT (45) 14/1
#3 ASHWORTH (40) 20/1
#5 (10) 100/1, #6 (20) 60/1, #8 (15) 80/1, #9 (25) 40/1, #10 (15) 80/1, #12 (35) 25/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 199 of 221 in Discussion 
From: FastEddy Sent: 4/12/2003 9:26 AM
Thanks Gerry , I liked Starcraft and took the odds on offer from the qtab , not a big bet at all $10 so won $15 , he looks a promising type and will follow him into the new year.

Reply
Recommend  Message 200 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 7/12/2003 2:25 PM
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Hawkebury 4/12/03
 
Race 3
#1 LEEWARDS 5/4 $58=$0
#6 INFO MISS 4/1 $25-$0
Race 8
#4 BACK IN DUBAI 5/1 $16=$0
#9 LIVE IN FEAR 40/1 $2.5=$0
#13 SCENIC BOOM 6/1 $14=$0
 
Outlay $115.50 Return $0 Loss $115.50
Total Outlay $1175.50 Total Return $2029.20 Profit $853.70 (73%)
 
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 201 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 7/12/2003 2:35 PM
Grafton 7/12/2003
Track Dead/Slow
 
Race 3 Cl 4 Hcp 1750m
#2 PERPETRATE (100) 7/4
#1 LITTLE BAMBI (80) 7/2
#5 GOLD GYSMO (65) 11/2
#4 ON THE MARKET (55) 7/1
#3 (30) 25/1, #6 (35) 20/1, #7 (15) 60/1.
 
Race 4  Cl 5 Hcp 1200m
#1 AIR OF GRACE (100) 9/4
#2 INTERSTORM (90) 3/1
#5 TELLAPEER (70) 11/2
#4 CREPITATE (55) 9/1
#3 (45) 14/1, #6 (30) 30/1, #7 (25) 40/1, #8 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 5 Open Hcp 1600m
#1 SENSACHE (90) 9/4
#4 DUGAN DAN (90) 9/4
#6 TROUBLE IN HEAVEN (5) 9/1
#2 (30) 20/1, #3 (35) 16/1, #5 (40) 14/1, #7 (15) 60/1, #8 (20) 40/1, #9 (20) 40/1.
 
Cheers Gerry. 

Reply
Recommend  Message 202 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 7/12/2003 4:12 PM
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Grafton 7/12/03
 
Race 3
#1 LITTLE BAMBI 7/2 $20=$0
Race 4
#1 AIR OF GRACE 9/4 $40=$177.60
#4 CREPITATE 9/1 $12=$0
#6 RUNVES 30/1 $3.50=$0
Race 5
#1 SENSACHE 2/1 $50=$0
 
Outlay $125.50 Return $177.60 Profit $52.10
Total Outlay $1301 Total Return $2206.80 Profit $905.80 (70%)
 
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 203 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 9/12/2003 1:50 PM
Tamworth 9/12/2003
Track Good/Dead
 
Race 5 Open Hcp 1600m
#2 YOUTHFUL EDITION (105) 5/4
#6 LACONICAL (60) 6/1
#1 LEGAL BRIEF (55) 13/2
#3 VIN DE MAISON (55) 13/2
#4 (20) 40/1, #5 (20) 40/1, #7 (15) 60/1, #8 (30) 25/1.
 
Race 6 Cl 2 Hcp 1200m
#4 TIME RELEASE (90) 13/4
#1 BIG TIME PLAYER (80) ??? 4/1
#2 BIRUBI MAC (75) 5/1
#7 ARTEE (65) 13/2
#3 HAPPY HARPO (50) 12/1
#6 BE QUICK (50) 12/1
#5 (20) 50/1, #8 (15) 80/1, #9 (15) 80/1, #10 (10) 100/1, #11 (15) 80/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 204 of 221 in Discussion 
From: matttherat² Sent: 9/12/2003 5:01 PM
Artee matched at up to 14-50 on BF.
 
Traded and Available
Odds To Back To Lay Traded
11.00     £6
13.00     £107
13.50     £171
14.00     £118
14.50     £109

Reply
Recommend  Message 205 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 9/12/2003 7:41 PM
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Tamworth 9/12/2003
 
Race 5
#1 LEGAL AGENT 13/2 $12=$0
#6 LACONICAL 6/1 $14=$0
Race 6
#4 TIME REALESE 13/4 $27=$0
#6 BE QUICK 12/1 $7=$0
#7 ARTEE 13/2 $15=$147.00
 
Outlay $75 Return $147 Profit $72
Total Outlay $1376 Total Return $2353.80 Profit $977.80 (71%)
 
 
Cheers Gerry.

Reply
Recommend  Message 206 of 221 in Discussion 
From: matttherat² Sent: 9/12/2003 8:20 PM
Hi Gerry - How did you get paid $15 on Artee as seems most of the TAB divs were approx $9?  Is this best fluc or something or the fixed odds price IAS were offering?  Cheers.

Reply
Recommend  Message 207 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 10/12/2003 9:22 AM
Matt, I wish it paid $15 but alas only paid $9.80 (9/1) with Sportingbets maxidiv, thats about 10c better than the best TAB div. Rated 13/2 effective odds 9/1 bet is $15 ( Gerrys don't get greedy formula ) $15 x $9.80 = $147 return. I hav'nt been typing in the dividends, can get that by dividing the return by the bet amount, sorry for the confusion. There were 2 other bets in the same race $27 and $7  returning $0. Been happy with the TAB + dividends, except IAS have cut a lot of theirs out, you have to have an account with S'bet as well ( their site is so slow at times) could spend a $ on an upgrade to their s'ware. 
When the smoke clears I'm going to have a bit of a go with the betting exchange, if it still going then. Would you mind posting a bit of a rundown on the thing, does it always cover NSW country races ie Taree, Tamworth, Cessnock etc? Are bets in pounds or dollars, and whats the limits, or on those meetings are the bets small amounts only? The commission is 5% on your winnings, not turnover? Can you bet up to post time or advertised time? Where I bet they always seem to run a few minutes late every race, gives the TAB time to cut the odds, I've had bets where the horse has won and been paying $4 at advertised start time, one wont go in or something, wins and pays $2.80. There should be no bets taken in this time, race advertised to start at 4pm thats when betting should stop, bad luck if you see the favourite playing up and want to back something to beat it. Don't know a lot about the lay side of things.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 208 of 221 in Discussion 
From: matttherat² Sent: 10/12/2003 11:58 AM

Yes Gerry as far as I'm aware Betfair are covering all these provincial races now - today they are betting all the main meetings and Balaklava so am reasonably sure these NSW meets are all covered, although on the weekends I think you'll find BF are only betting on the major metrop meetings and probably don't provide betting on e.g. the secondary NSW venue (but I'm not 100% on this as these meetings don't particulary interest me so haven't really looked).

Can bet in the currency of your choice - you make this selection when you sign up so AUD no problem and all bets just go into the one pool regardless of which currency the individual user bets in. 

No limits - the only limit is determined by how much other punters are willing to back and lay each horse for at a given price - so the limit depends on the liquidity in the market - it's not enormous for Aus racing, whereas for UK racing there's generally plenty of liquidity for most runners in a race so theoretically can get set for plenty in the UK.

Comission ranges between 2% to 5% depending on how much net profit or loss you make in a week - so essentially the more you bet and win or lose the lower your commission will be - this % fee is reassessed on a weekly basis.  Then you are charged your particular commission if you make a profit in the particular market you are betting on, if you lose, zero commission.

Yes can generally bet right up tojump time, for Aus racing it seems they suspend betting perhaps between 15 - 30 secs before the start.

The lay side should probably be of interest to you as you'll often find horses trading for below your rated prices so if the advantage is sufficient you can jump in and lay to your hearts content.

Best thing for you to do is have a look at one of the race markets when you're not busy with IAS or TABs in Aus

Go to http://www.betfair.com

Then click on Horse Racing - Todays Card which you will see on the left hand side of the home page and then click on the race time you want to check out ( - much like the TAB websites in Aus you don't need a BF account to see the action.  Most of the betting action on these Aus races takes place in the 10 minutes leading up to the jump, generally there's not much going on earlier than that. 

All you really need to do is click on refresh just above and to the right of the first horse in the race and all the price and stake data will refresh.  The prices you see on the screen are bids and offers from backers and layers, when you see them on the screen they have not yet been matched but these are the prices that are available and if they are acceptable to you then you can just go in and accept that bet.

If you want to see what prices have already been matched for a given runner, click on the Blue i button to the left of the horses name.

Cheers - I'm sure you'd love BF Gerry and as you can see with Artee in your race from Tamworth yesterday, you'll often get a far better price than the TABs.


Reply
Recommend  Message 209 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 11/12/2003 8:31 AM
Wyong 11/12/2003
Track Good
 
Race 4 Cl 1 Hcp 1350m
#2 HURRICANE LOU (90) 2/1
#5 TUSCAN MAGIC (65) 9/2
#1 COUNTER DEPICTION (60) 11/2
#3 MR MARVELLOUS (55) 7/1
#4 INDI RHYTHM (50) 9/1
#6 (10) 80/1, #7 (15) 50/1, #8 (15) 50/1, #9 (15) 50/1.
 
Race 6 Cl 2 Hcp 1200m
#1 STRAWBERRY SPY (70) 5/1
#3 KID ROYALE (70) 5/1
#4 BARZURA (65) 11/2
#2 BULLALA (60) 7/1
#5 LOOKOUT (60) 7/1
#6 SCENIC PRINCE (45) 11/1
#7 (25) 30/1, #8 (15) 60/1, #9 (15) 60/1, #10 (30) 25/1, #11 (10) 100/1, #11 (10) 100/1.
 
Race 8 Open Hcp 1000m
#1 SWITCHED ON TIME (85) 3/1
#3 STRABANE (70) 11/2
#8 CAPE HOWE (70) 11/2
#5 KID COMBO (60) 8/1
#2 (40) 16/1, #6 (35) 20/1, #7 (40) 16/1, #9 (20) 50/1, #10 (15) 60/1, #11 (20) 50/1, #12 (30) 30/1, #13 (40) 16/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 

Reply
Recommend  Message 210 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 11/12/2003 8:26 PM
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Wyong 11/12/2003
 
Race 4
#1 COUNTER DEPICTION 9/2 $17=$0
#3 MR MARVELLOUS 5/1 $19=$0
#4 INDI RHYTHM 7/1 $14=$0
Race 6
#2 BULLALA 7/1 $13=$169.40
#6 SCENIC PRINCE 11/1 $7=$0
#7 COOKSTOWN FRANKIE 30/1 $3.50=$0
Race 8
#1 SWITCHED ON TIME 3/1 $29=$0
#2 MUSTARD 16/1 $6.50=$0
#8 CAPE HOWE 11/2 $17=$0
 
Outlay $126 Return $169.40 Profit $43.40
Total Outlay $1502 Total Return $2523.20 Profit $1021.20 (68%)
 
 
Cheers Gerry.

 


Reply
Recommend  Message 211 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 17/12/2003 10:02 AM
 
Wyong 17/12/2003
Track Good
 
Race 3 Cl 1 Hcp 1100m
#3 YUBI (80) 13/4
#4 FRENCH CUT (70) 9/2
#2 MR ONE PERCENT (65) 11/2
#1 INTITION (60) 6/1
#5 (50) 10/1, #6 (35) 20/1, #7 (40) 15/1, #8 (20) 40/1.
 
Race 4 Cl 1 Hcp 1350m
#5 SPURHILL (75) 11/4
#3 LANDSDOWNE (70) 7/2
#2 RUNNING RICH (65) 4/1
#7 FASHION SONG (45) 9/1
#4 (40) 12/1, #6 (35) 14/1, #8 (15) 50/1.
 
Race 5 Cl 2 Hcp 1200m
#2 FOR VALOUR (90) 2/1
#5 PARK LIFE (60) 6/1
#1 SIR TEE JAY (55) 13/2
#3 (30) 25/1, #4 (40) 14/1, #6 (35) 16/1, #7 (35) 16/1, #8 (20) 40/1, #9 (40) 14/1, #10 (30) 25/1.
 
 Race 6 Cl 4 Hcp 1350m
#2 GO GO APOLLO (100) 9/4
#1 ASCOTELLO (75) 9/2
#10 OAKFIELD DUCHESS (50) 11/1
#5 BRIDGEE BOO (45) 14/1
#3 (30) 30/1, #4 (25) 40/1, #6 (40) 20/1, #7 (30) 30/1, #8 (40) 20/1, #9 (20) 50/1, #11 (35) 25/1, #12 (25) 40/1.
 
Race 7 Trans Hcp 1000m
#5 NETREPRENEUR (90) 2/1
#1 A TENNER (70) 4/1
#2 STORMCAT ACADEMY (60) 6/1
#4 (15) 50/1, #6 (35) 16/1, #8 (15) 50/1, #9 (40) 14/1, #10 (40) 14/1, #11 (15) 50/1, #12 (25) 30/1.
 
Cheers Gerry.

Offline westie

  • Group 1
  • User 8
  • Posts: 15023
« 2009-Jan-07, 11:07 PM Reply #15 »
Reply
Recommend  Message 212 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 18/12/2003 8:10 AM
RESULTS
To win $100 with IAS (DiviPlus) or Sportingbet (MaxiDiv)
Bets less than $5, NSW TAB.
Wyong 17/12/2003
 
Race 3
#2 MR ONE PERCENT 11/2 $14=$0
#3 YUBI 13/4 $29=$0
#4 FRENCH CUT 9/2 $20=$0
Race 4
#3 LANDSDOWNE 7/2 $29=$125.90
#5 SPURHILL 11/4 $27=$0
#6 MACHADO $6.50=$0
Race 5
#1 SIR TEE JAY 13/2 $12=$0
#5 PARK LIFE 6/1 $16=$0
#7 SACHARE 16/1 $5=$0
Race 6
#1 ASCOTELLO 9/2 $15=$0
#5 BRIDGEE BOO 14/1 $5=$0
#10 OAKFIELD DUCHESS 11/1 $9.50=$0
Race 7
#1 A TENNER 4/1 $25=$0
#2 STORMCAT ACADEMY 6/1 $16=$0
#10 MAVOURTRICE 14/1 $7=$121.20
 
Outlay $236 Return $247.10 Profit $11.10
Total Outlay $1738 Total Return $2770.30 Profit $1032.30 (59%)
 
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 213 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 19/12/2003 11:19 PM
Randwick  20/12/2003
Track Good
 
Race 6 Villiers Stks G2 1600m
 
#14 MUFTI (95) 11/2
#1 THIS MANSHOOD (90) 13/2
#2 STOWAY (70) 12/1
#4 CARAEL BOY (70) 12/1
#6 PALLADIUM STAR (65) 14/1
#17 SELF INTEREST (60) 16/1
#10 GENERAL MINOLTA (55) 20/1
#19 TAKAS (50) 25/1
#20 VITAL AGREEMENT (45) 30/1
#3 (30) 60/1, #5 (40) 40/1, #7 (25) 80/1, #8 (40) 40/1, #9 (15) 125/1, #11 (35) 50/1, #12 (35) 50/1, #13 (20) 100/1, #15 (40) 40/1, #16 (35) 50/1, #18 (40) 40/1, #21 (15) 125/1, #22 (10) 200/1, #23 (10) 200/1, #24 (5) 400/1.
 
Cheers Gerry. 

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Recommend  Message 214 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameSmiley5110 Sent: 5/01/2004 11:32 AM
Further to Matt's post about Betfair, you don't have to accept the price on offer at the time. By this I mean that when you place an offer to bet, you can type in the odds you are willing to take. For instance, the price on offer might be $4.00, but you may be unwilling to take these odds, so you can bid $5.00 if you want to. As the race gets closer you can amend your acceptable odds until you eventually match up with someone. This may be at $4.60 in this case.
 
 The reason you should not accept the odds on offer intially may be because someone has offered to lay a horse at much shorter odds than are available elsewhere. As the race gets closer, bidders generally even out these anomalies and you usually receive a fair match for your money.
 
Cheers
 
Smiley

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Recommend  Message 215 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknamewotnomore Sent: 20/05/2004 5:35 AM
How then does phone betting work?
 
They tell you the current price, yes or no offer.
 
Does it take long?

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Recommend  Message 216 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 25/05/2004 10:17 PM
WOT, you pick up the phone....dial the number......the phone goes ring ring ......someone say's "halloooo"....you say "hallooooo".....they say... "WOT do you want".....you say "I want to bet on a horse"....they say WOT horse?...you get the idea, it goes on like that.... usually costs 20 cents, depending on how thick you are and how thick they are it could take several hours!
 
Cheers Gerry.

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Recommend  Message 217 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknamewotnomore Sent: 26/05/2004 6:52 AM
Come on Gerry, that's most unlike you.
 
I am talking about ringing betfair over the mobile or home phone.
 
It costs a bit more than 20c I would imagine.
 
I was interested, if say you are laying a horse, whether they post your
offer and you hold on till accepted, and so forth.
 
So does it take 20 seconds or 4 minutes to make a phone bet on betfair.
 
Cheers .

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Recommend  Message 218 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameGerry1953 Sent: 26/05/2004 7:39 PM
Seriously, WOT I'm not a Betfair person, so I don't how it works from a phone angle, but I believe you can operate by phone. Why not post your question on the RACING FORUM and see if some of the betfair forumites can answer it for you.
 
Cheers Gerry.
 
p/s WOT you know not to take me seriously and I don't take you seriously either, more joking the better agree? On that note, WOT do you think I should  send an E-mail to management ordering them to ban formuites who lampoon and satirize others, because I think the Forum should be a place of the utmost decorum, where only the most serious racing matters are discussed with dignity and piety.....WOT DOYA RECKON!!!!!

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Recommend  Message 219 of 221 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknamewotnomore Sent: 27/05/2004 12:19 AM
Beats me Gerry, I got lost when u said,
Lampoon, satarize and decorum.
 
You know I'm illerate.
 
Have a nice day, may be up that way next 6 months and will catch
up for a chat.
 
The Wot.

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Recommend  Message 220 of 221 in Discussion 
From: YUCKMAN Sent: 1/06/2005 10:42 AM
I can't even spel ill...illa...illit....oh, eye giv up!

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The number of members that recommended this message. 0 recommendations  Message 221 of 221 in Discussion 
Sent: 2/06/2007 10:40 AM
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