Horses to follow - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Horses to follow - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Horses to follow  (Read 11996 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25631
O.P. « 2017-Dec-27, 09:13 AM »
Let's see if this takes off as a thread. Feel free to add one when you see it.



Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25631
« 2017-Dec-27, 09:13 AM Reply #1 »
I'll start with the impeccably bred MONTREAL who bolted in at Randwick. By the great lonhro and the great producer Piccadilly Circus is his grand dam

Surely he's the complete package and has more wins in store
« Last Edit: 2017-Dec-27, 09:16 AM by wily ole dog »

Offline ianb

  • Group 2
  • User 329
  • Posts: 1061
« 2017-Dec-27, 11:27 AM Reply #2 »
From the same meeting I will go Calculated -a 3 year old by So You Think.

It only ran 3rd but was a victim of a completely hopeless ride by  Blake Shinn. Waller and most punters surely can't wait for Bowman to return.

How can Shinn be regarded as a top jockey with a ride like this one? Not as bad as the Happy Clapper ride ,of a couple of months ago, but this was still abysmal by any stretch of the imagination.

Calculated is in the market for the 3 year old Magic Millions but I suspect that he 'll be balloted out thanks to the Shinn ride.

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31143
« 2017-Dec-27, 03:35 PM Reply #3 »
I'll start with the impeccably bred MONTREAL who bolted in at Randwick. By the great lonhro and the great producer Piccadilly Circus is his grand dam

Surely he's the complete package and has more wins in store

Sadly he is not the complete package.


Offline Egaised

  • Maiden
  • User 2684
  • Posts: 1
« 2017-Dec-29, 03:10 AM Reply #4 »
I'll start with the impeccably bred MONTREAL who bolted in at Randwick. By the great lonhro and the great producer Piccadilly Circus is his grand dam

Surely he's the complete package and has more wins in store
unfortunately i can't recommend one but thanks for your recommendation. i will surely take a look at it. will appreciate updates and if someone else has some more recommendations

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31143
« 2018-Jan-02, 10:26 AM Reply #5 »
My 4 to follow to start the new year -

Kugelblitz - Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
Think Cathy - Colin Little
Supera -   Ken & Bev Kelso

Without Parole - John Gosden

Offline ianb

  • Group 2
  • User 329
  • Posts: 1061
« 2018-Jan-04, 03:22 PM Reply #6 »
From the same meeting I will go Calculated -a 3 year old by So You Think.

It only ran 3rd but was a victim of a completely hopeless ride by  Blake Shinn. Waller and most punters surely can't wait for Bowman to return.

How can Shinn be regarded as a top jockey with a ride like this one? Not as bad as the Happy Clapper ride ,of a couple of months ago, but this was still abysmal by any stretch of the imagination.

Calculated is in the market for the 3 year old Magic Millions but I suspect that he 'll be balloted out thanks to the Shinn ride.
Calculated gets another chance on Saturday to qualify for next week's M.M. 3year old event.

He is in race 1 at Randwick.

 I see Bowman is back in town but he's riding the stablemate Scream Park. However at least Waller hasn't put Shinn back on board Calculated.
« Last Edit: 2018-Jan-04, 03:24 PM by ianb »

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1007
« 2018-Jan-04, 04:45 PM Reply #7 »
Ian a couple of points re you suggestion that Shinn stuffed up on Calculated,

first he was probably under strict instructions to go back and try to find cover, he probably jumped too well but was not going to get across to the fence so Shinn pursuant to instructions tried to go back and get cover, it just didn't work, still he had his chance in the straight if he was good enough, he wasn't

The other point re Shinn off Calculated, that may have been Shinn's choice, he only just beat Island Missile last time when Island Missile was first up and should take a lot more improvement from the run than Calculated would have as Calculated already had a run under his belt that day, Calculated will be fav while Island Missile is 3 times the price(was 4 times the price but that has gone off).........Calculated will be hard to beat but I can't see any value there.....it is not like there are only 2 chances either

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31143
« 2018-Jan-04, 06:59 PM Reply #8 »
Personally, as a fan of Calculated, I believe they are stuffing him up.

In my opinion they should have sat back and hoped he got a run in the big one on Saturday week.

Another run will take the speed out of him giving him absolutely no chance in the big one.

He can certainly win on Saturday but IMNSHO it compromises his chances in the million dollar race.


Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1007
« 2018-Jan-05, 10:38 AM Reply #9 »
They are probably weighing up their options, will he get a run in the MM if he doesn't run tomorrow? Being by So You Think he probably goes better with the sting out of the Ground and the Gold Coast is January........probably not a great option at this stage.....but it is worth a Kings Ransom.......something to think about, it ain't open and shut.......always easy to see how to solve someone else's dilemma.......... it is also easy to make a decision when you have nothing on the line, if you are wrong you lose nothing,......I would be inclined to trust Waller and all the experts helping him to make the right decision in that regard.........He knows just how good the horse really is............Shinn sacked him, Bowman prefers his stablemate.....maybe he ain't as good as some think....at this stage of his career anyway

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25631
« 2018-Jan-05, 10:42 AM Reply #10 »
For what it's worth. At this stage I don't rate him at all. Can't see myself ever backing him

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1007
« 2018-Jan-05, 11:00 AM Reply #11 »
wily I never say never, if he was in the right race and the right price he would be in the mix.....tomorrow he is too short for me, if he was a silly price say $10 I would have something on him.....nothing to do with whether I think he will win or not......I never sack a horse....never.......only a price, I may downgrade a horse but that only means I need a better price in a weaker race.....never make it personal....with People or Horses.....Punting is only about opinions....not facts....the past is facts....the future is only opinion

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1007
« 2018-Jan-05, 01:19 PM Reply #12 »
Auth they must have read your advice, Calculated has been scratched from tomorrow, probably for the Gold Coast next week

Offline ianb

  • Group 2
  • User 329
  • Posts: 1061
« 2018-Jan-05, 02:49 PM Reply #13 »
I wish them luck getting a start.

At present he is 39th on the order of entry with only 16 to start.

Sure there are several good horses who probably won't start. However with so much prize money available I imagine any horse who has had a recent run and is above him on the order of entry will accept.

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31143
« 2018-Jan-05, 07:39 PM Reply #14 »
I am happy for him to miss both races.

Offline ianb

  • Group 2
  • User 329
  • Posts: 1061
« 2018-Jan-06, 08:49 AM Reply #15 »
I think 1400 - 1600 are  the ideal distances for the Australian bred progeny of So You Think. In which case 1400M at Randwick I would have thought would be ideal for Calculated. Having said that I also have this theory that the So You Think progeny are best suited to the sting being out of the track.

If you look at So You Think's best results you see Inference and La Bella Diosa both won their Group 1 races at that range. Also So Si Bon's best race was in the Caulfield Group 1 Handicap (Rupert Clarke Stakes).

Waterhouse was able to get Northwest Passage to win over 2500m and both Inference and So Si Bon placed at longer distances against their own age but couldn't win.

Angelucci is in Race 2 at 2000M at Caulfield tomorrow. He won last start impressively at 1700M at Caulfield. If I'm right about the distance range of the So You Think progeny he will struggle.


Offline JWesleyHarding

  • Group 1
  • User 231
  • Posts: 18248
« 2018-Jan-06, 09:03 AM Reply #16 »
I am happy for him to miss both races.

Why not retire him now? :bulb:

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25631
« 2018-Jan-06, 09:13 AM Reply #17 »
I am happy for him to miss both races.

Understand your sentiment but I bet as an owner I know what you would do. It's easy from the outside

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31143
« 2018-Jan-07, 08:42 AM Reply #18 »
I'd give him to Baker.

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31143
« 2018-Jan-07, 10:54 AM Reply #19 »
I think 1400 - 1600 are  the ideal distances for the Australian bred progeny of So You Think. In which case 1400M at Randwick I would have thought would be ideal for Calculated. Having said that I also have this theory that the So You Think progeny are best suited to the sting being out of the track.

If you look at So You Think's best results you see Inference and La Bella Diosa both won their Group 1 races at that range. Also So Si Bon's best race was in the Caulfield Group 1 Handicap (Rupert Clarke Stakes).

Waterhouse was able to get Northwest Passage to win over 2500m and both Inference and So Si Bon placed at longer distances against their own age but couldn't win.

Angelucci is in Race 2 at 2000M at Caulfield tomorrow. He won last start impressively at 1700M at Caulfield. If I'm right about the distance range of the So You Think progeny he will struggle.

I put this more down to our trainers losing virtually all ability to develop stayers.


Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1007
« 2018-Jan-07, 03:07 PM Reply #20 »
Auth I think that statement is too generalised......I believe it is more about finding an Owner with the patience and the pockets to allow trainers to develop stayers, Breeders even when they use stayers like to breed pumped up Yearlings that will bring big money in a sales ring......not many top Stayers looked like a racehorse when they were yearlings.....and when you get a great stayer or middle distance horse there isn't any competition for them so they are not really good for the industry anyway
« Last Edit: 2018-Jan-07, 03:31 PM by Dave »

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31143
« 2018-Jan-08, 08:45 AM Reply #21 »
That is quite a sweeping generalisation as well.

When you get a great sprinter their is very little competition for them.

I thoroughly and utterly stand by my stance that Australian trainers have lost the art of developing stayers.

Offline ianb

  • Group 2
  • User 329
  • Posts: 1061
« 2018-Jan-08, 02:16 PM Reply #22 »
I wish them luck getting a start.

At present he is 39th on the order of entry with only 16 to start.

Sure there are several good horses who probably won't start. However with so much prize money available I imagine any horse who has had a recent run and is above him on the order of entry will accept.

Well he has made the field - 14th in the ballot. This was well worked  out by Waller as he said in a discussion last week that they would check out whether  Calculated would make the field in the 3year old Classic and scratch him from Randwick if he thought he would get a run.

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1007
« 2018-Jan-08, 04:10 PM Reply #23 »
Auth wouldn't you say Lloyd developed Efficient........he easily beat the Europeans in the '07 Cup! he also had the time and the pockets..........Prince of Penzance was another developed in Australia..........There are still plenty of trainers who can develop Stayers.........but there are so few to develop, and the huge money in baby races means anything that shows any ability at all gets burned too soon

Big money WFA, Set weight and baby races are what is killing Australian racing, It was Dead everywhere but Australia many years before.....so we did what they did and now nobody cares about it any more..........and none knows why?? gimme a break....it was a self fulfilling prophecy.....Australian racing was without any doubt the best in the world......till they fixed it!

If you took Punting away it would die as far as Public interest goes......why it is now a sport for the converted..........trouble is you can't make a crowd out of converts.......that kind of racing never has and never will appeal to the public.......... no matter how good the horses are, even Winx and Black Caviar did nothing to ignite passion in the public for Horse racing.............they just did what racing choreographed for them...........

If they had been beaten it would have have proven the novelty of what they really were............no one would turn up the start after they were beaten to see them again..............it is(or was) a sport where anyone could win a big race, now it is the sport of Kings.....no one cares about Kings.......

They are now trying to sell the "party" aspect of racing, which kills off the next Generation of possible racegoers.......

They will never make a movie about Godolphin winning races.....no matter how good their horses are.......there is NO romance...........Racing has lost it's Romantic appeal.......that is the end of the story, apart from gambling (and if they can get enough Punters interested in Trackside even that may stop) it is now all about Pyramid selling and seeing how high they can build the Pyramid.........it is called Self interest...........I can understand why they do it that way.......MONEY!! what I can't understand is why people like you buy it?

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31143
« 2018-Jan-08, 06:45 PM Reply #24 »
Just on your first two paragraphs, Japan and Europe have more of all that and still manage with smaller crops.

We breed planty of stamina horses in Australia.


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap