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Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold  (Read 96286 times)

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Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Dec-15, 06:00 AM Reply #350 »


No one should complain when the racing day turns out well -- a not-often experience.

To settle the nerves ponder the $30,000 and $6,000 quadrellas at the Vale of Tears and Canterbury on Friday.

.......... and Quackerjack settled the question of 'how good was that?'

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Dec-15, 10:43 AM Reply #351 »
I’m not sure if your sheer arrogance or stupidity let you raise the quacker again. Ironically  You look like a goose

You got it wrong as you did in Melbourne

Just admit it :tin:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Dec-17, 09:55 PM Reply #352 »

Ah dinnae ken the Kensington track

Tomorrows fields are hardly 'inflated' perhaps but the jury must be still out on whether the Kensington track offers a sound basis for a fair bet.

My general perception is that the race outcomes are more than a bit random.

.............. this may reflect connections of good horses side stepping this track, leaving only confused form about the runners turning up.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Dec-18, 06:52 AM Reply #353 »
Well Mair is wrong again. Not only does he do NO form he’s does NO research.. :tin:

The last 16 races at the Kenso has seen 13 favoured runners win.

The track is a punters delight :no1:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Dec-18, 07:19 AM Reply #354 »
Added to that I’ve got 5 in my black book and 3 of them are over $20.

Fill up the Xmas stocking Pete 8-)

Offline ianb

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« 2019-Dec-18, 07:34 AM Reply #355 »
 I'm not sure of Wily's punters delight but statistically Peter there doesn't seem too much for you to worry about the Kensington Track.

 It appears to have reopened on the 18/04/18 and since then there has been 194 races with is a winning percentage of favourites of 32%. The overall place percentage of  62% is slightly lower than normal. However it still roughly fits into what has occurred over the more than 50 years I have been betting on racing in Australia of 1 in 3 favourites win and 1 in 3 favourites run unplaced.




Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Dec-18, 11:14 AM Reply #356 »


That data on the Kensington percentages is persuasive -- thanks.

My misgivings are not well documented and I would be fishing for excuses to support anecdotal impressions.

I will keep a sharper eye out.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Dec-18, 11:44 AM Reply #357 »

A MINISTERIAL PLEA FOR A RACING CARTEL

The minister for racing in Victoria has plans for a national racing cartel which would preclude state racing administrators competing with one another -- astonishing stuff.

The minister and all others with current irresponsibilities for racing in Victoria would do well to get their house in order rather than pleading for its winning competitors to continue to let racing in Victoria be so badly administered.


https://www.racenet.com.au/news/victorian-racing-minister--we-spend-too-much-time-thinking-about-v-landys-20191218




Victorian racing minister: 'We spend too much time thinking about V'landys'

“Racing needs to recognise that it is in a fight for relevance, it’s in a fight for support amongst a new generation ..............

“In that environment, you need a national body – not to do everything – but some of the big issues,......, the scheduling of the program in a way that maximises the product, ......., you need a genuine national body with some authority.

“The whole point of having a national body is that sometimes in the interest of the sport nationally they are going to do things that you might not like as a state body.”




Monopolies are always bad for the customers

Government protected monopolies, especially, are an open invitation to the misuse of administrative 'discretion'.

De-facto an interstate – and international -- cartel among administrators and governments ensures the racing monopoly is, collectively, an ‘un-competitive’ rort.

There is no accountability -- racing that is not commercially viable should be not conducted. Allowing non-viable racing bears on which electorates get 'racing tax money'.

Racing-tax-money is politically special because it is ‘free’ -- outside the state budget process --  and 'washed' through state racing administrations, to which it flows as an 'entitlement' to a share of betting turnover. This is money laundering writ large -- corruption follows as a matter of course.

A 'too-much is not-enough' approach to running races is a waste of money.

The inevitable  next step is administrators and politicians scheming to get more ‘free’ racing-tax-money.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Dec-18, 02:55 PM Reply #358 »

That data on the Kensington percentages is persuasive -- thanks.

My misgivings are not well documented and I would be fishing for excuses to support anecdotal impressions.

I will keep a sharper eye out.

How’s that sharp eye going Pete   :lol:

You’ve been slapped in the face with a dead fish after the first 3 races so I’d imagine your not in a good way  :lol:   :lol:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Dec-18, 03:24 PM Reply #359 »
And it’s getting worse for you Pete. Your bullshit theory about supposed inflated fields denying runners every chance got exposed for sheer stupidity
7 horse field saw let it Pour badly h3ld up and a tragedy beaten

7 horse field you clown.....next you’ll be call for two horse fields🤡

And I bet you still couldn’t find the winner

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Dec-18, 05:46 PM Reply #360 »


Kensington passed the Monty test

Monty's top5 selections are the most reliable test of the relevance of the form guide and the fair running of the races.

All good today.

Monty had  4 of the 7 'on top, ,and the other 3 winners were his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th selections.

As well he had 3 of the first 4 in his 'top5" in all but one race -- oneF4 and two trifectas and both quadrellas.

.......... how good is that as scottnofriends might say!


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Dec-18, 08:14 PM Reply #361 »

Who would write-off Monty before his selections are published?


I wont but I am inclined to take the risk on Saturday.

Buckle up his top 3 in both quadrellas in both states and wait to watch the replays --- otherwise go shopping, or go to the movies -- or do anything other than lament wasting the afternoon watching the rubbish racing presented in both states.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Dec-18, 09:15 PM Reply #362 »
So you got it wrong today and instead of having the balls to say so we get the monty smother  :lol:

You weakness of character never cease to amaze  :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Dec-20, 09:10 AM Reply #363 »


It is pleasing to be wrong about finding flaws in the racing presented


Does not happen often enough.

RNSW does not think much of the Flemington program tomorrow -- the SMH guide it subsidizes in NSW, shows the fields but no form for Melbourne.

Tomorrow will test the role of inflated fields at Flemington -- on form there are only a couple of good chances in most races and most fields are inflated.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Dec-20, 06:07 PM Reply #364 »


Tomorrow will test the role of inflated fields at Flemington -- on form there are only a couple of good chances in most races and most fields are inflated.

On form?

Good to see you’re now doing form :thumbsup:
What are your couple of good things?

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Dec-22, 05:32 PM Reply #365 »
We all know Mair is wrong but when he’s totally and utterly exposed he goes silent  :lol:

One again his claims were disproven on every level.

Quaddy only paid $830

Favoured runners dominated in the supposed “inflated fields”

Ironically the small fields of 10 runners, which Mair demands in his warped logic, were seen to cause traffic issues.

 Next he’ll want  3 horse fields.....that’ll see racing survive but he may actually find a winner  :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Dec-27, 07:39 PM Reply #366 »

Bookmakers enjoy the festive season

.............even the news-corpse media, that owns this media site, cannot bring itself to accept the nonsense on offer at the vale-of-tears tomorrow.

https://www.punters.com.au/news/moonee-valley-preview_186780/

The idea that anyone would be 'on-course' at the Vale tomorrow beggars belief.

It is similarly incomprehensible that RVL would be spending some $1 million+ of punters money on such low-grade races that should not be run any where near town.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Dec-29, 08:49 AM Reply #367 »
Wrong again Mair  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Thought Santa might have given you a brain for Christmas   :lol:

Early quaddie $82........punters clearly ignored your brain fart and bookies went home feeling sick

5 favourites saluted from what I saw and the roughest winner was only on the 5th line if betting which resulted in a still skinny quaddy of 2.4k

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-02, 08:26 PM Reply #368 »


There is no point complaining

.......... at this time of the year, RVL, among others, is milking the market for punters with nothing else to do.

The fault lies with those silly enough to bet.

For instance -- have a go at races 5,6&7 at Caulfield on Saturday -- BM 70, 64 and 78  -- all over the notoriously unfair 1400m  -- chocka-block fields ... 

......... what do you think is going to happen in these races ..... a fair go for all ......... or not.


Offline gunbower

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« 2020-Jan-02, 09:29 PM Reply #369 »
Haven't been looking at this forum as often as I was did . Notice the one with the below par IQ is still babbling on !

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-03, 01:52 PM Reply #370 »

Saturday at Caulfield will be a ripper

............three over 1400 with inflated fields ............one over 1600 also inflated with no-hopers before closing with a BM70 over 2000 with a clear favourite but too many others to be confident.

.....the BSUX will not be won and the quaddie will pay stacks for phone-number selections.

The corporates and syndicates will be counting on having a big day at the expense of the faithful.

Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Jan-03, 02:14 PM Reply #371 »
Time for a Royal Commission for the faithful. :chin:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-03, 06:31 PM Reply #372 »
Saturday at Caulfield will be a ripper

................one over 1600 also inflated with no-hopers


Okay Pete, who do you declare to be the no hopers ?

Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Jan-03, 07:25 PM Reply #373 »

Okay Pete, who do you declare to be the no hopers ?

I think PM will inform you after the last but I stand to be corrected.


Offline fours

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« 2020-Jan-03, 07:33 PM Reply #374 »
A new year and a gift for some....

My most profitable races are those with 12 or more races.

But then I do not rely upon tips from anyone but do my own 'relative' form.

Fours
ps the difference to Peter is stark


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