Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold  (Read 59485 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 26970
« 2020-Feb-19, 06:36 AM Reply #425 »
Nothing before hand?


Online Peter Mair

  • Group 1
  • User 326
  • Posts: 5092
« 2020-Feb-19, 06:52 PM Reply #426 »


.......... and 'nothing after-hand' ......... no results today were objectionable in Sydney or Melbourne.

Saturday is a D-day for Melbourne racing.........  BD-Day races usually run true to form... ?

Offline wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 26970
« 2020-Feb-19, 09:42 PM Reply #427 »
So your dire predictions about today were wrong :chin:

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1135
« 2020-Feb-20, 01:35 PM Reply #428 »
Can't someone shoot this thread and put US out of our misery.......PLEASE????

Online Peter Mair

  • Group 1
  • User 326
  • Posts: 5092
« 2020-Feb-20, 08:47 PM Reply #429 »

An about true-to-form day is remarkable

...... ready.........fire......aim -- if BD day runs true to form it will be the first time for a long time.

[even the kennel kids cannot be happy with the rough results routinely the outcomes with MM racing.]

Online Peter Mair

  • Group 1
  • User 326
  • Posts: 5092
« 2020-Feb-24, 09:09 AM Reply #430 »


Melbourne racing -- who got the money?


The problems with Melbourne racing extend beyond 'inflated fields' -- not least presenting biased tracks.

On the past two Saturdays  some $5 million+ was bet nationally on the Melbourne quadrella -- and it all went west as far as most punters are concerned.

When the quadrella pays some $75,000 and $20,000 it is most unlikely that any punter betting modestly gets a share of the payout.

As well the rough results implicit in these big dividends mean that most punters lost as well on the individual races.

Rather the pool goes to the syndicates getting rebates for plundering the punt -- and the fixed-odds operators trousering the rough-result bets.

There is a strong case for relegating Melbourne racing to the sin-bin until it is fairly administered.

The coming Australian Cup meeting will signal the end of this Melbourne 'carnival' for predators -- bet very warily til then and don't bet again til the Spring.

Offline fours

  • Group 1
  • User 704
  • Posts: 6366
« 2020-Feb-24, 03:05 PM Reply #431 »
Peter,

You make the village idiot look like a genius.

Plenty of non rebate punters got the quaddy for a %.

Fours

Online Peter Mair

  • Group 1
  • User 326
  • Posts: 5092
« 2020-Feb-24, 04:58 PM Reply #432 »


Will Tabcorp give us the numbers so we both know?

The probabilities are that 'a few' modestly betting punters 'got a small %' but that the great bulk of the TAB pools went to syndicate operations.

The reasonable concern here is that the TABs do not disclose the distribution of dividends paid out matched against bets placed 'early' and 'late', 'big' and 'small' bets and bets attracting 'rebates'.

...........what is beyond question is that race betting is now corrupted by a range of deliberate administrative policies playing the winning cards into the hands of rebate-syndicates (betting into TAB pools) and fixed-odds operators closing accounts of 'likely winners' while cleaning the table when the predictably rough-results deprive most punters of a fair bet.

.....if you were genuine in your interest in fair play you would support the call for TABs to publish the betting and dividend numbers according to which class of punter did best on each race.


Offline fours

  • Group 1
  • User 704
  • Posts: 6366
« 2020-Feb-24, 05:35 PM Reply #433 »
Idiot,

When big punters have million dollar win bets they get the majority of the dividends as well..... regardless of the field size. Small win bettors get a tiny % of the pool in these cases.

It is no different for exotic pools given the existence of flexi betting. WATAB lets you have 1c bets to smooth things further if you put the time in to do so.

If you are a $0.50 bettor your expectations should not extend beyond that of a $0.50 bettor. Your expectations that everything should be designed and put on based on your $ limitations and intellectual limitations puts the village idiot well ahead of you.

Fours

Online Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 3687
« 2020-Feb-24, 05:47 PM Reply #434 »
PM, a mate of mine got a 44% dividend of the Sydney Quaddie with a Corp. He had 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 and bets $36 each week along with another $24 on an early quaddie and a smaller percentage.

He walked away with a few quaddies in last 12 months. He picks the fav and an outsider plus another pick. He walked away with about $5-6k on the weekend.

He does not bet with the tab if corps have best quaddie deals. He is not a syndicate but he has done well. The week before he picked up the Sydney quaddie too. Sometimes it pays crap and other times well.

His theory is if you bet big and favs get up, then you end up losing. Thus I am not sure how big syndicates are betting with the tab as the dividends could be small.

Online Peter Mair

  • Group 1
  • User 326
  • Posts: 5092
« 2020-Feb-24, 06:34 PM Reply #435 »

Abject stupidity and Idiocy

.................the two preceding posts meet the criteria for 'abject stupidity and Idiocy'

Even I have had a big-winning day a few times in the past 20 years -- and you know my skills.

Beyond that many of my bets applaud the option to have one or just a few cents live with a multi bet.

Linda Meech and Michael Walker riding winners makes my day, usually at the expense of my pocket.

I readily recognize 'Saturday racing' as the cheapest available entertainment for the poor -- for the price of going to a movie, the Irish among us get two days of once-was-wonderful entertainment with a minimum bet of one-cent.

..... the point is that even for the poor the business is best administered to deliver fair racing ... as of now .... in Melbourne especially .......it is being administered unfairly as a corrupted racket to the benefit of well-heeled insiders.

................these days most punters get robbed  .. some simple disclosures of bets-on and dividend outcomes would expose that corruption ..... and reforms would follow.


Online Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 3687
« 2020-Feb-24, 06:49 PM Reply #436 »
So PM if people make money from betting stupidly then you must be extremely rich from punting wisely.

So please share your tips so the idiots can lift themselves to your standards.

Online Peter Mair

  • Group 1
  • User 326
  • Posts: 5092
« 2020-Feb-24, 09:10 PM Reply #437 »


A DFC is awarded, with no reservations,

...................to a person hiding behind the moniker  'jeunes' -- a CFW bar to this award will  be considered, and approved,  by the governor general.

...... well done china, a rare achievement for consistent performance!


Offline wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 26970
« 2020-Feb-24, 09:44 PM Reply #438 »

A DFC is awarded, with no reservations,

...................to a person hiding behind the moniker  'jeunes' -- a CFW bar to this award will  be considered, and approved,  by the governor general.

...... well done china, a rare achievement for consistent performance!

That’s your best retort to being constantly wrong  :lol:

Online Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 3687
« 2020-Feb-24, 09:48 PM Reply #439 »

A DFC is awarded, with no reservations,

...................to a person hiding behind the moniker  'jeunes' -- a CFW bar to this award will  be considered, and approved,  by the governor general.

...... well done china, a rare achievement for consistent performance!

I accept the award and dedicate it to you PM for your fortitude and impeccable defence of a theory based on quicksand.   :lol:   :lol:

Offline wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 26970
« 2020-Feb-24, 09:51 PM Reply #440 »
Quicksand??   :lol:   :lol:

Self interest and bald faced lies more like it :bulb:

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1135
« 2020-Feb-25, 12:26 PM Reply #441 »
Do you all just like arguing?? Don't you know when an argument is over? this one has been dead that long it has even stopped smelling bad.....All that is left to bleach in the sun is just bare bones......I haven't seen any sign of someone even
 considering the other sides point of view....let alone actually changing their own mind....so just take one dip and END it!

Online Peter Mair

  • Group 1
  • User 326
  • Posts: 5092
« 2020-Feb-25, 08:05 PM Reply #442 »

Maladministration is not a mystery

........anyone with a grasp of the 'shoulds' and should-nots' in race outcomes -- as reflected in the pre-post odds -- and personal betting losses -- knows  when it has all gone haywire.

The explanation for 'rough results' is mainly about races that have fields inflated with unqualified runners  -- especially with sprints and immature horses -- and then it is compounded by unfair tracks with 'no one' knowing 'why' it raced unfairly.

This is 2020... we should be seeing things more clearly.... not least administrators rigging the game to boost turnover and 'industry funding' -- and exploiting a committed customer base of mainly faithful addicts.

Offline gunbower

  • Group3
  • User 2463
  • Posts: 971
« 2020-Feb-25, 08:43 PM Reply #443 »
The next horse I name will be called " White Coats " , named after Mair.

Offline arthur

  • Group 2
  • User 446
  • Posts: 2775
« 2020-Feb-25, 09:18 PM Reply #444 »
  emthup  Dave . .

Gunny   . .  A couple of anagrams for your first choice  (often used in naming hayburners) that you may consider . . Wise to Chat/ Chat to Wise . . Twice as Hot . . I'll look out for them in a couple of years . . God Willing  :wub:

Offline Antitab#

  • Group 2
  • User 234
  • Posts: 2146
« 2020-Feb-25, 11:26 PM Reply #445 »
Pete

Do you really believe that every time there is a rough quadrella the syndicates benefit. It was over a decadea go when I was worked for the largest syndicate at the time  and I'm certain there selection methods have become more sophisticated but I can assure you big odds winners knock the syndicates out of quaddies and cause losing races for them as as much as the small punters.

Has it crossed your small little mind that some of these horses start such big odds precisely because the syndicates are betting around them?

 


Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1135
« 2020-Feb-26, 04:51 PM Reply #446 »
Antitab, good one, I bet Petes listening and taking what you say on board, he will now offer an apology to all and sundry and admit he was wrong all this time......oh wait.....this is the real world.......I thought we had moved to the Bizarro world.....please ignore my previous prognostication.....real world prognostication.....Pete will ignore any evidence you give him......now that sounds better

Online Peter Mair

  • Group 1
  • User 326
  • Posts: 5092
« 2020-Feb-26, 09:31 PM Reply #447 »


.... rough results ..               place-getters at long odds   ... are the evidence that few 'got it right' -- and, more likely, that the algorithims of syndicates dedlivered the loot.

Online Peter Mair

  • Group 1
  • User 326
  • Posts: 5092
« 2020-Feb-28, 09:49 PM Reply #448 »


Friday-night racing is an insult to the industry

........ the insult is ever more offensive when the MM contribution is invariably from a vale-of-tears that only ever endorses that lamentable accolade while the outcomes reflect grossly inflated fields.

...........does anyone go to the course............... does anyone leave happy......... does the 'take' cover the prize-money.


Online Peter Mair

  • Group 1
  • User 326
  • Posts: 5092
« 2020-Mar-01, 05:43 PM Reply #449 »


...... at last, a fair day of Saturday racing in Melbourne

Most punters would have enjoyed the racing at Flemington yesterday -- results consistent with the form-guide is a rare occurrence with MM racing.

Perhaps it had something to do with smaller fields allowing mainly well-matched runners to run on their merits without interference.

......  the fixed-odds operators and rebated-syndicates did not get the rough results they rely on ...... presumably they will complain to RVL and ask for their preferences for inflated fields and 'no-hoper' interfers to be restored.to be restored.



BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap