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Author Topic: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold  (Read 111281 times)

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Offline ratsack

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« 2020-Jul-11, 08:43 PM Reply #800 »
DO THE FORM !

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-11, 09:39 PM Reply #801 »

Most punters are sensibly aware and choose carefully

When a quadrella pays some $6.5k it is fairly clear that not many 'got it'.

More generally when that $6.5 quadrella is 'topped' and 'tailed' by F4s paying $30k and $40k it is clear enough that the form guide has not been the most reliable guide to the factors that count.

The RVL early-Q was 'in reach' provided one selected last year's winner of the race ---- one presumably readied to 'do it 'again'.

How do 'they' get this one ready ............ this cannot be a secret ...... a this-one is 'readied' against the odds all too often.

...............the stewards never say a word ...........apparently, never look to see who was told what about 'what was done'.




Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2020-Jul-11, 10:05 PM Reply #802 »

When a quadrella pays some $6.5k it is fairly clear that not many 'got it'.

More generally when that $6.5 quadrella is 'topped' and 'tailed' by F4s paying $30k and $40k it is clear enough that the form guide has not been the most reliable guide to the factors that count.


When you lie as often as you do, when you make up as many stories as you do to cover up your failures, when the voices in your head all get too much - it's hard to keep up with the actual truth.

Pick a lane, and stick to it.

Your "rough", "ungettable", "rorted" F4's had about 2 winning $1 units on them each, tax already taken out.
Your Quaddie that was impossible (paying $6.6k) had about 180 winning $1 units on it, tax also taken out.

Pick your poison, you can't have it both ways. Two winning ($1) units in a pool, I'll cop that 'not many got it'. 180 winning units? Jam that lie up your  :censored:


I see you chose to ignore an earlier post on this thread, where some kind-hearted soul introduced facts that showed that favored runners actually outperformed their expectations today. Ignorant fool.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-12, 08:29 AM Reply #803 »
Most punters are sensibly aware and choose carefully

it is clear enough that the form guide has not been the most reliable guide to the factors that count.'.


No it’s clear that people like you should not punt as you have no idea :tin:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-12, 08:35 AM Reply #804 »
When you lie as often as you do, when you make up as many stories as you do to cover up your failures, when the voices in your head all get too much - it's hard to keep up with the actual truth.

Pick a lane, and stick to it.

Your "rough", "ungettable", "rorted" F4's had about 2 winning $1 units on them each, tax already taken out.
Your Quaddie that was impossible (paying $6.6k) had about 180 winning $1 units on it, tax also taken out.

Pick your poison, you can't have it both ways. Two winning ($1) units in a pool, I'll cop that 'not many got it'. 180 winning units? Jam that lie up your  :censored:


I see you chose to ignore an earlier post on this thread, where some kind-hearted soul introduced facts that showed that favored runners actually outperformed their expectations today. Ignorant fool.

It appears everyone has got Mair figured out. Starting with those who rid our great sport of his brain farts

“Jam that lie up your  :censored:

”When you lie as often as you do, when you make up as many stories as you do to cover up your failures, when the voices in your head all get too much - it's hard to keep up with the actual truth”


I see you chose to ignore an earlier post on this thread, where some kind-hearted soul introduced facts that showed that favored runners actually outperformed their expectations today

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-12, 08:42 AM Reply #805 »

The assessment has to be proportional


As the most popular bet in Australia, some 200,000+ punters probably take a Melbourne quadrella ticket.

........so some 200 in 200,000+ is a small proportion ..... and most of the pool would have gone to rebate-taking syndicates.

There was no way most punters would have given the winners of the 6th and 9th any chance -- the 9th was a predictably rough, inflated field event and the 6th for 3yros over an unfamiliar distance a bit of a raffle..

My point is simply about the races being promoted and conducted fairly --- and many are are not ...and you know they won't be on Wednesday when you see the inflated fields.



 

Offline Antitab#

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« 2020-Jul-12, 09:33 AM Reply #806 »
Lets diagnose this Melbourne quadrella and ascertain how hard it was to get, I dont think any of the results were particularly surprising.

Leg 1 - They bet 25/1 the winner Friday, first up from NZ where it had won or run second its last three starts, decent wet form on a bog , career record 4 wins from 14 starts. SP $14 not a hard horse to throw in a quaddie.

Leg 2- Wet tracker close to the best backed horse in the country yesterday., started $2.60

Leg 3 - Won its last three starts, SP $6

Leg 4 - 7/2 the field so open race. Winner, 2nd up after racing first up at 1800m , so was going to improve, 5 starts on heavy for 2 wins and a second. This horse had raced in Group 2  races, if you dig back far enough was beaten 2.1 lengths Homesman and Almandin at 2000m, Was a little harder to find than the others but at $14 in an open race the sort of horse you could easily throw in a quaddie.

I took a quaddie with 72 combinations, 3 x 2 x 3 x 4 and was alive going to the last leg but missed. Upon reflection you could easily make a case why I should have thrown the winner in.


The SP all up was $3300/1 so dividend has plenty of fat in it.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-12, 10:43 AM Reply #807 »

All is clear on Sunday


Both Bet Busters and Punters.com also had the four winners -- these 'tips' are probably related now newscorpse owns Racenet as well as P.C.

.........quadrellas with even one 'rough' result can pay overs because of their popularity ....especially in Melbourne.

Both RVL and RNSW know this and exploit it .....the last leg is usually rough to start with and made worse by inflating the fields in all the legs.

With no one to represent punters, they are taken for a ride ....... a very rough ride these days when the corporates feed off the 100% 'take' for rough results and the syndicates plunder the exotic pools.

.......if you think the banks got worked over for misconduct ... it would be even more entertaining if there was an inquiry into the administration of racing and its cartel-like links to corporates ...the tongue-tied racing media ....and politicians in rural racing electorates.

One option could be for ASIC to use its new powers to expose 'intentionally detrimental' products and require their redesign or withdrawal ........... paying cluttering 'no hopers' to run 10th is deliberate product detriment .and ideal cover for connections getting one ready and smoking it in.



 

Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2020-Jul-12, 12:09 PM Reply #808 »
Give up while you're behind.


........so some 200 in 200,000+ is a small proportion ..... and most of the pool would have gone to rebate-taking syndicates.


Again, with your rubbery figures to give your bile any semblance of reality.

In trying to make one lie match with another, you've introduced the concept of 'proportions', coming up with 200k betting participants to link your lies together.

200k punters in the Quad makes an average bet size of $8. Not even you could believe that lie you are trying to spin.


Get help you sick, lecherous old  :censored: . I've supplied Gamblers Help details before.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-12, 12:38 PM Reply #809 »
Well said hammers.
The 2 biggest takeaways from Mairs latest brain fart

1. He said “ With no one to represent punters”.
The grub is driven by self interest. Thats his sole mission. To somehow wedge himself back into a job

2. He will lie his arse off to achieve that



Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-12, 01:15 PM Reply #810 »


Would you guys endorse a request to Tabcorp to provide the figures?


The needed information is not published so there is some guesstimating.

There are some 1 million punters in Australia 'betting week-to week and the Melbourne quadrella pool, nationally, across all 'service providers' is some $3 million -- say twice the VICTAB pool -- and that would put the average stake at $15 if 200,000 take a ticket.

The problem is that the racing media men are 'beholden' due to the media-owners being compromised with subsidies to publish the form........the paid-off media is not doing is job......even the one claiming to be 'always independent'.

........ trying to unionize punters is like herding cats ....but that is what is needed ... the power of a national organization .......... to put questions and demand answers ...and to go on strike.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-12, 08:09 PM Reply #811 »

Vale of tears flooded


Victorians seemingly have no capacity to learn from experience -- do not bet at the Valley.

Luckily, I was unaware of a 'meeting' at the Vale today -- I do not like to decry a meeting without having put some money up.

On a heavy track, with minimal fields after scratchings, the outcomes reflected the nonsense of racing on this track .....the quadrella paid $11,000...........one component F4 paid $50k++ on VICTAB .......... and the other F4s paid overs considering the small fields.

.....even so, the VICTAB quadrella pool was some $450k+ .....on a Sunday? ............ while the NSWTAB pool held less than $100k.

........who is laughing .....  corporates and syndicates.....who trousered the money!

Offline gunbower

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« 2020-Jul-12, 08:48 PM Reply #812 »
I would think for once we might have to agree with the ravings of this moron. It seems to me like he would have a rather intimate knowledge of "trousering ". Probably his own.. After all you cant get that silly ........................

Online arthur

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« 2020-Jul-12, 09:03 PM Reply #813 »
the 6th for 3yros over an unfamiliar distance a bit of a raffle..

Sounds a bit like an 'Oaks' or a 'Derby' . . .

Hope you're not crooked on them too . .

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-12, 09:32 PM Reply #814 »
He’ll be crooked on anything if it means he can push his own barrow

Online nemisis

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« 2020-Jul-13, 10:32 AM Reply #815 »
Racing Victoria Stewards have opened an inquiry and  want to look at betting sheets from race 9
Two apprentices, who both have obviously been instructed to lead and run a long a bit. :what:
Stewards need to open their eyes a bit wider!

It hardly compares to Sirconni's big PB last week at his 28th start .....at least $18 into $10.....which was allowed just to pass through.
It should be of much more interest to look at those betting sheets.

Bedford, the best horse in the race, won at basically the same price he had been all week.
I'll just point out that when Bedford raced Almandin and Homesman, he did run as fav.....so his ability was well recognised.
https://www.racing.com/news/2020-07-12/news-caulfield-stewards-adjourn-riding-inquiry

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-14, 08:44 PM Reply #816 »


Quadrella dividends 'declared' tell the  story

It is just not Saturdays

..... today at Wagga the Q 'paid' $60k ......... at Seymour $25k............. just wait for Wednesday at Cranbourne.

This is not right ..... race outcomes have no connection to established form.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-15, 08:32 AM Reply #817 »
Of which races,of those quaddy legs,  had any runners interfered with due to the size of the field.

Did any of your notoriously “slow runners fall back in the lap of favoured runners” as you claim happens in fields over 10?

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-15, 12:48 PM Reply #818 »


Buckle-up......it is wondering Wednesday

Have a look at Flemington yourself:

https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2020Jul18%2CVIC%2CFlemington

Races 1,2,3&4 have 10 starters and the outcomes will be interesting -- not least a race 3 raffle over 1800m for immature 2yros.  Assess the rest, all with big fields, yourself - one clue, R9 a BM78 with 18 crowding a fast lane over 1200 m is a tough way to end a hard day.

As for Sydney, the 'Kenso' is not Randwick and a heavy track will not help.

                .....wonder no more ....the movies are back


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-15, 03:01 PM Reply #819 »
Of which races,of those quaddy legs,  had any runners interfered with due to the size of the field.

Did any of your notoriously “slow runners fall back in the lap of favoured runners” as you claim happens in fields over 10?


So again
you refuse to answer questions and enter discussion  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-15, 03:39 PM Reply #820 »

There are no indiscreet questions ........but some answers could be

A kennel-kid asking questions 'looking for a discussion' .....is akin to a pitt-bull looking for live red meat ......before digging a hole where my bones would be buried for repeated retrieval.

I have been there and done that ........ been mocked.......often impolitely....  amusing other kennel pals.

More generally some questions have no clear answer ...... just a race unfolding predictably inexplicably to an unexpected outcome.

.........  R9 on Saturday may be an example... as have been others nominated on earlier Wednesdays.



Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-15, 04:08 PM Reply #821 »
There are no indiscreet questions ........but some answers could be

A kennel-kid asking questions 'looking for a discussion' .....is akin to a pitt-bull looking for live red meat ......before digging a hole where my bones would be buried for repeated retrieval.
.

Well, that’s because you are constantly getting it wrong and don’t have the character to admit it. You just steamroll along with what have now turned into lies :bulb:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-15, 04:11 PM Reply #822 »


I have been there and done that ........ been mocked.......often impolitely....  amusing other kennel pals.


That’s because you have failed to treat the forum with respect.
Any impolite response to you is born out of YOUR disrespectful approach to this place
Answer questions put to you or  :censored:  off

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-15, 06:15 PM Reply #823 »


Thank you for confirming my discretion to let some questions hang in the air until they answer themselves.

....... will R9 on Saturday be fairly run? ............ the result will be the answer..... it could be but not likely.

Online fours

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« 2020-Jul-15, 07:05 PM Reply #824 »
IDIOT.

Variance says that is not possible.

Fours


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