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Author Topic: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold  (Read 103881 times)

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Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-27, 09:30 AM Reply #875 »

Hail a disciple!


.............. on Racenet this morning:

..............debate rages in Victoria about whether lowly-rated horses should be banned from competing on the professional circuit, .............

Victorian racecaller Terry Bailey got tongues wagging when he said the industry must review the problem of low-rated horses running out of their class to merely run for prizemoney paid down to 10th place.

He claimed it was a blight on the industry and was eroding punter confidence.



Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-27, 09:58 AM Reply #876 »
Finally Mair finds someone to agree with him.  :lol:

Mind you, we’ve all seen how bad Terry’s punting ability’s  on “Get On” so that makes 2 clueless people with the same brain fart  :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-29, 08:56 PM Reply #877 »

Saturday quandary at the Vale of Tears


........... contemplating this low-grade track with low-grade horses gets more frightening when races 8&9 are slated to have capacity fields .......... tears before bedtime, very probably.

..............  it is a similarly daunting prospect with a heavy track Royal Randwick and low-grade contenders hoping for 10th.

     ............bet light ............. and have a happy horses birthday.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-31, 10:24 AM Reply #878 »


...... better to know on Friday than Sunday


It is very likely that the Vale of Tears will be well watered tomorrow .......... confusion confounds 4, 5, 7 & 8.

Offline napes

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« 2020-Jul-31, 11:05 AM Reply #879 »
Hopefully the quaddie will pay more than $61.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-31, 11:44 AM Reply #880 »

Hope is not a winning strategy

............. while a quadrella (or F4) paying less than $100 means the favourites were successful.............it is hard to complain about that.

Conversely, a quadrella (or F4) paying more than $1,000 usually suggests 'something' has gone wrong -- most likely these days it is 'impeders' wanting to run 10th that frustrate the form .......and with big fields of runners 'out of form' or otherwise uncompetitive, it is also a situation that can be exploited by 'betting one ready' under the radar.

........ 'best value' quadrellas (and F4s) would pay under $10 ............ the 'worst value' ones pay like lotto.

Sadly the hype about 'big fields best' and 'long-priced winners adding value' are paste-pearls cast before easily fooled punters.

Online fours

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« 2020-Jul-31, 11:48 AM Reply #881 »
IDIOT - get help!

Your comment has been proven to be wrong over and over before the race.

Fours

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-31, 02:49 PM Reply #882 »
[
............. while a quadrella (or F4) paying less than $100 means the favourites were successful.............it is hard to complain about that.

........ '

Wrong again Mair. :tin:

The pool was about 25% less due to the small fields. Punters were not interested in the predictable small divvy and voted by not investing

The professionals with the computers worked their percentages and were the only winners on the day

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-31, 02:50 PM Reply #883 »
Hope is not a winning strategy

.............
Sadly the hype about 'big fields best' and 'long-priced winners adding value' are paste-pearls cast before easily fooled punters.

It is hoped that you are not so stupid. This probably ranks with the dumbest thing you’ve said around here  :lol:


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jul-31, 05:06 PM Reply #884 »

They do not come much sillier than this not-wily bloke

I would love to know who writes this kids lines for him.

The pool was about 25% less due to the small fields. [Note: Pool size has nothing to do with relative dividends]

Punters were not interested in the predictable small divvy [Note: punters bet most on favourites ........that's why they are the favourite.]

..... and a boomerang opens a head wound [It is hoped that you are not so stupid.]



Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jul-31, 06:09 PM Reply #885 »
.

 [/i] [Note: Pool size has nothing to do with relative dividends]



This now ranks as your dumbest brain fart. More runners more chances in parimutuel betting. However,you dumbass you missed the point.
Punters stayed away in droves due to the small fields and the looming piddling divvy



[/i] [Note: punters bet most on favourites ........that's why they are the favourite.]

Win & place pools reflect this. Not quaddies & F4s. That’s why your brain farts are irrelevant
Those pools are proof that

 the evidence has smashed you in the face like a wet fish but your such and u pin employable dunce you don’t realise it




..... and a boomerang opens a head wound [It is hoped that you are not so stupid.]


Your career in the racing industry will not come back like a boomerang





Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Aug-01, 06:21 PM Reply #886 »

...... better to know on Friday than Sunday


It is very likely that the Vale of Tears will be well watered tomorrow .......... confusion confounds 4, 5, 7 & 8.

Mair wrong again.  :lol:  Keep putting your brain farts up idiot. You keep everyone amused   :lol:

Zero confusion.  Favourites win 3 of the above races and runs 2nd in the other

Actually, there was confusion. Mair looked at the form guide and had no idea  :lol:
Who in their right mind could have been confused about the group class horse, Brooklyn Hustle :no:


Oh, and with the bigger fields and the horses for courses nature of the valley, punters flocked  back to the quaddy With the prospect of a good divvy :clap2:
« Last Edit: 2020-Aug-01, 06:23 PM by wily ole dog »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-01, 08:06 PM Reply #887 »


Never bet at the Valley [ignore the wily fool].


........... today was another predictable illustration of why punters should never even open the form guide for any race meeting run at Moonee Valley ....it is truly a vale-of-tears.

.......... a truly disgraceful condemnation of RVL continuing to run races of this track ....... the Q paid $45,000 and three of the associated F4s paid $6,000 ............. only slow learners will not heed this lesson.

 

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-02, 07:59 PM Reply #888 »


Jockeys fitted with blinkers

As their new pay rise kicked in at the start of the fresh racing season, Victorian jockeys were reminded of their obligations to help promote the sport in a positive light to as many people as possible.

Among those most disadvantaged by inflated fields, jockeys are close to the top of the list.

......... jockeys told 'they are on a good thing', by 'connections' betting big',  are under pressure to get the job done.

...when they do, they are sometimes 'forced' to test the rules .....and suspensions for doing so are costly unless the connections back up with compensation for 'time out'.

I consider it disgraceful that an earned pay rise for jockeys was accompanied by an 'enterprise agreement' that compromises their entitlement to speak freely.
 
The Victorian racing minister should speak up about the steady corruption of the industry by RVL.




Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-03, 07:27 AM Reply #889 »

Inflated fields, rough results, loser-only customers please --- punters taken to the cleaners


...... who would have thought?

Australian punters propping up global bookmaker profits

Australia's gambling addiction has propped up some of the world's biggest corporate bookmakers during the pandemic, sparking fresh calls for a fresh federal government crackdown.

Several foreign-owned bookies have reported to shareholders a massive boost in takings during the three months from April to the end of June, as well as an increase in share prices since the global outbreak of COVID-19.

...............Ladbrokes ........... Australian business had performed "exceptionally well" in growing by 76 per cent ............. accounted for half of its global sports business revenue.

...........PointsBet, which partners with Fox Sports Australia's coverage of AFL, ........... reported a 330 per cent jump in revenue on last year


https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-punters-propping-up-global-bookmaker-profits-20200802-p55ht8.html


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-03, 08:08 PM Reply #890 »


Daniel Andrews gives Victorian racing the green light to continue

I have only admiration for most recent Victorian premiers, not least John Cain jr, Steve Bracks  and now Daniel Andrews............  Jeff Kennett, a man for the time, has a continuing credible relevance, akin to Paul Keating.

.. ..... that said, the racing in Victoria has become 'institutionally corrupted' and I would like Daniel Andrews to bite the bullet in due course and commission a royal commission of relevance to the whole of Australia.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-05, 07:36 PM Reply #891 »


.......... it is 'oh no' day..... Wednesday...... acceptance day

The nominated 'applicants' accepted to run on Saturday have been decided ...... the prospects for punters are not good.............. the prospects for fixed odds bookmakers are for a bonanza.

One focal point is RVL and the Flemington meeting.

................half the horses that RVL accepted to run should not have been ............ the SP market says most have no chance of winning .... unfortunately 'those most' have a very good chance of being paid generous 'appearance fees' ......only needing to run 10th.

... .........on the plus side, provided the no-hopers do not get in the way ....... there are few winning chances in most races .... alas, the no-hopers routinely do get in the way ....out for a run they go to the front ............ run out of puff ......... fall back off the lead ............. and disrupt a fair race.

...... for plain plundering of most punters the last .. race 9  ........... is a standout ........ over the notorious 1400 with a capacity field (15 + 5e) ............. few accepted to run have a credible claim......... and the F4 and quaddie will likely be a rort, as usual .......... a benefit-program for fixed-odds bookmakers.

............a wet track wont help

............... and that goes in spades for Rosehill


........... bet light .......... tape and replay later ........ there are some good movies on now


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-07, 08:42 PM Reply #892 »


......... only one sleep left ...... the anti-santa will be taking all your money tomorrow

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-07, 09:24 PM Reply #893 »


.... apologies for mistake

......there are no (unseen) good movies on where I live ........ there are few bettable races on either ............. a wet day with nothing else to do spells 'problem'   .... in the morning, practice handling the problem  ... take your wallet and a pair of scissors ..... cut up the notes ......... and tell the boys to 'take it away' when you push the full-flush button.         

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-08, 07:35 PM Reply #894 »


Inflated fields ....and so it came to pass,


..................R9 in Melbourne was a disgrace ........ the F4 paid some $30,000............. as I said:

.......... it is 'oh no' day..... Wednesday...... acceptance day

...... for plain plundering of most punters the last .. race 9  ........... is a standout ........ over the notorious 1400 with a capacity field (15 + 5e)  -- 13 started ............. few accepted to run have a credible claim......... and the F4 and quaddie will likely be a rort, as usual .......... a benefit-program for fixed-odds bookmakers.


....................in Sydney, the should-never-be-run HIGHWAY ROBBERY race paid $60,000 + for the F4


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-09, 02:50 PM Reply #895 »

A Racenet racing writer

...................had this to say about the 9th at Flemington:

FLEMINGTON QUADDIE KILLER    I’ve got no stats to back it up but Flemington more than any other track seems to always throw up a left field result to explode most punters' quaddies.

........... gentle readers may well ask 'why does he not know the stats' ..... especially about RVL running inflated fields in 'the last' over 1400m at both Flemington or Caulfield ........... a rough result can be predicted on Wednesday.

....those gentle readers that have a bet could also suggest it does not matter if it is the last or first leg ...... these predictably rough rort-races are simply unfair .....making the rort the last is just plain nasty as many would have had 3 up and good chances in the 4th.

....the racing media men have a job to do ......... just do it properly ....and do not say 'it is not my job' to get the stats............. bone-lazy is not a disease it is an attitude.


Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Aug-09, 07:02 PM Reply #896 »

alas, the no-hopers routinely do get in the way ....out for a run they go to the front ............ run out of puff ......... fall back off the lead ............. and disrupt a fair race.

...... for plain plundering of most punters the last .. race 9  ........... is a standout ....


Oh well Mair wrong again  :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-09, 07:12 PM Reply #897 »


Would you believe it ....... the favourite never got a clear run?

Savvy Lad ($4.20F) - Flemington R9................... it was a bit of a horror show and it might pay to put a line through the run. Michael Walker settled the 4YO gelding back in the field from barrier three and he remained in traffic for much of the 1410m event. He got into a bumping duel at the top of the straight, had to change course a couple of times and, after ducking back to the inside, picked up again to finish strongly


[........ and here was I thinking the cat had got the puppy's tongue ........ but, no, just a silly, not wily, comment]

Offline Antitab#

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« 2020-Aug-09, 07:27 PM Reply #898 »
Drop off Pete.

Flemington was a punters delight on Saturday

Races 4,5,7,8 were won by favourites

Races 2,3 and 6 were all won by Oliver on second favourites at 3/1, 4/1and 4/1.

Race 1 was 6/1.

Last winner was 16/1, hardly unfindable.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Aug-09, 08:24 PM Reply #899 »



[b.... sadly]...... antitab has contracted the wily virus[/b]

....... a virulent affliction reflecting in a loss of commonsense ........ I said only that the 9th was a raffle 

I got the MN extra quadrella in a canter ......and was live into the 9th with four............including 2nd.

...........my  posting to my subscribers on Saturday said:

......it is that bad that MN -- especially the early small-field races --is probably preferable to Sydney

...even so, ...... for plain plundering of most punters the last .. MN race 9  ........... is a standout ........ over the notorious 1400 with a capacity field (13 after scratchings) ............. few accepted to run have a credible claim......... and the F4 and thus the quaddie will likely be a rort, as usual .......... a benefit-program for fixed-odds bookmakers.


[....... antitab should not take any riding instructions from a proven dog....... someone that only ever robotically  contradicts anything I say without any ratioinal thought or consideration]


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