Racehorse TALK

Thoroughbred Racing Talk => Racing Talk => Topic started by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-02, 09:07 PM

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-02, 09:07 PM


Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold

The new racing season will be an opportunity to assess the impact of RacingNSW paying at least $3,500 for horses running down to 10th in most races on Saturdays.

That the intention to inflate the size of race-fields will be achieved is beyond question – the issues are about the consequences.

Horses not ready to do their best will be having preparatory runs in races rather than in trials.  This matters if, as often, can’t-wins clutter and disrupt the fair running of a race, impeding the free-running of favoured horses.

It is beyond question that the losers in this deal will be most punters and the owners of the better horses – most punters will find that the form guide is less relevant and owners there to win will run into interference from those not.

The beneficiaries, of a contrived policy to inflate fields, comprise a de-facto cartel – it ranges through administrators taking more money from increased TAB and bookmaker betting turnover; corporate bookmakers (now racing sponsors) taking fixed-odds bets from punters more likely to lose; trainers and jockeys having expanded employment opportunities;  owners of low-grade horses getting a better chance of recovering costs; syndicate betting operations given rebates to plunder TAB pools and, not least,  state governments feeding racing-tax revenues, that first belong in the public purse, directly to racing -- including to subsidize racing in rural areas that has no chance of covering costs.

The mantra of ‘too much racing being never enough’ is flawed.

The consequences of this consensus assault on the pockets of most punters will unfold as the $3,500 inducement to ‘just give a horse a run’ kicks in.

Wait for it: more race outcomes will become ‘rough’ and dividends declared for many race outcomes will look more like a lotto-strike than a race running true to form – especially for trifecta, first-four and quadrella bets.

The way these predictably unfair outcomes unfold in NSW will be told every Saturday – as they have been for Melbourne metropolitan racing for some time now.

My prescient ‘cautions for Melbourne’ now embrace ‘cautions for Sydney’.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2018-Aug-03, 06:29 AM
Peter,

Kindly provide a mathematical proof for your claims.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-03, 07:13 AM
Yet again Mair displays his lack of knowledge regarding racing
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Aug-03, 01:23 PM
I think he is pretty much on the mark.

On our tight turning tracks big fields are more about luck than talent.

Encouraging big fields with prize money down to 10th is just going to mark racing more of a lottery than it already is.

INstead of prizemoney down to 10th why not just wave the entry fees for all races below black type ?

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-03, 04:41 PM


There are no entry fees for races below black type -- at most there is a fee of $200 for a scratching.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-03, 05:13 PM
I think he is pretty much on the mark.

On our tight turning tracks big fields are more about luck than talent.

Well, we know in some instances that does happen. Especially the valley as both you and I have agreed on
Everyone’s smart enough to know when to pick their marks., except Mair who has his own agenda which is driven by self interest

On the other hand,it has been proven over the past months that mairs ramblings have been completely wrong.
The results prove that time and time again. Especially in those 1400m races he bangs on about. That’s why he doesn’t respond to the numerous questions put to him by other forum members

The Massive majority of those races are run trouble free and favoured runners are winning more often than not.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Antitab# on 2018-Aug-03, 05:55 PM
Peter

I have been involved in bookmarking for a long while and your premise is wrong on 2 counts

1. Every year our worst performing tracks in terms of revenue are small tracks. Punters are better able to map and are harder to betat. Margin is always best at Randwick, Flemington and Eagle Farm.

2. Punters want BIG fields.

They have voted with their wallets. We always hold mor money and write more bets in fields ofv12 plus. Under 8 horse fields and people don’t bet.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-03, 06:01 PM
Mairs other premis is wrong as well
He thinks horses are machines and should perform as such :tin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Authorized on 2018-Aug-03, 06:29 PM
Peter

I have been involved in bookmarking for a long while and your premise is wrong on 2 counts

1. Every year our worst performing tracks in terms of revenue are small tracks. Punters are better able to map and are harder to betat. Margin is always best at Randwick, Flemington and Eagle Farm.

2. Punters want BIG fields.

They have voted with their wallets. We always hold mor money and write more bets in fields ofv12 plus. Under 8 horse fields and people don’t bet.

That is probably because it is shoved down their throats there is more value in big fields when we all know that is not necessarily the case.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-03, 06:35 PM
Value is in favoured horses winning for the average punter.
The races Mair has been bemoaning have been dominated by favoured horses winning and mostly trouble free
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-03, 08:44 PM

Wily is my saviour

The rumour that I am paying the wily-one to promote common sense is not true.

                                 ..... inexplicably he has dedicated his influence to endorsing what I say.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-03, 09:06 PM
You’re a liar Mair
Nothing you say is endorsed or believed by anyone  :thumbsup:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2018-Aug-03, 10:38 PM
Why are big fields better,

The answer is the take out.

In big fields the chances of parts of the market being incorrectly priced goes up and it is this error area that gives punters a chance of profit.

The smaller the field the the less chance for errors.

There is a strong possibility that the more jammed packed the days racing program is the more chance of errors in the market as well.

As long as a punter concentrates on their niche, jammed packed racing days of big fields helps them make a profit.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-04, 08:46 PM
Well, the quaddy only paid;$300 or so bucks so once again Mairs predictions failed to eventuates.
Now if only rhythm to spare saluted I would have got a fatter divvy :sad:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-04, 09:14 PM

This is true

In big fields the chances of parts of the market being incorrectly priced goes up and it is this error area that gives punters a chance of profit.

The problem is that the 'punters' taking advantage of any miss-pricing are the big-betting, rebate-getting syndicates that do while the 'most punters' are disadvantaged.

That's why it is important that TABs show the distribution of TAB pools by the  class of punter -- big and small --that get which share of the dividends, in total and proportionate to the value of bets staked.

...... big fields are the nemesis of  time-precious punters relying on the form guide -- and a Santa Claus for the professionals.

[ .......... as for the wily-one ...... today was a remarkably good day for those betting at what is usually a vale-of-tears.........one day among few.]
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2018-Aug-04, 09:42 PM
errrrr Peter,

Punting is a competition and in competitions those that :-

1) prepare thoroughly and do the work required

2) 'the work required' rather than what they might psychologically like

3) stay where they have an advantage as a result and simply dont bet where they don't

4) have the requisite IQ and time to both know 'the work required' and actually do it.

are the ones that are going to do win the spoils.

An inept lazy punter deserves what they don't get but are welcome to pay for their race day enjoyment all the same.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-08, 09:36 PM


An inept and lazy one observes

Compared to the results for the comparable meetings in SY and MN there is no reason to be especially wary -- but 'straight' and 1400m races at Flemington are always risky.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2018-Aug-08, 11:03 PM
Pete if you just bet with the TAB that is mistake number one!.....Punters have to give them too big of a start....and Punters like you could not beat them if they gave you a start.....so on that fact I agree with you..........lazy idiots can't win!!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-09, 08:30 AM

My experience is that TAB is 'best' when tempted to bet in the pre-post fixed odds market.

It seems that the corporates are scared to be exposed until late in the day when the market is being fine tuned.

Even then it is rare to get more than a marginal advantage with a corporate just shading the TAB offers -- for that reason Iam inclined to say that the corporates should be 'taxed' at TAB rates lest they just make profit at the expense of all others.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: arthur on 2018-Aug-10, 10:28 AM
Even then it is rare to get more than a marginal advantage with a corporate just shading the TAB offers --

It is not rare . . in fact it is common

The other day I got 91.0 about a horse that was returned @ about 8.5 . . failed to salute of course, but that has nothing to do with the argument

And another, where I secured 20.0 . . 15.0 after 2 scratchings . . SP'd about 4.5 . . which did salute

A bit more than "marginal" . .

This is why many / most corps ban successful 'early shoppers'
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-10, 02:17 PM

TAB v other corporates

Thank you Arthur.

My concern with the 'others' is the poor odds before Saturday until the market firms.

At that point, the 'others' can see their book and blow out the prices on longshots -- but TAB, needing to pretend they all have a chance, encourages punters to put some of those longshots in their exotic bets.

There are problems in mixing 'tote' and 'fixed odds' betting  -- the big problem being the shift to inflated fields and rough results benefiting bookmakers and syndicates.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-10, 08:05 PM

Tomorrow

Already field sizes are increasing for Sydney metropolitan racing -- even so, Sydney still looks the best bet tomorrow.

In Melbourne there are short priced favourites in Races 5 and 9 which are modest benchmark events with big fields.

The 'worry races' are the three 'straight races -- 2, 5 & 7 -- and the three 1400 m races -- 3,4 & 8 -- with inflated fields when barriers are important.

Forum members that like 'big dividends' will be pleased -- but the probabilities are for most punters to be ripped.

.................... RVL must know that these likely race outcomes will disadvantage 'most punters' (and favour fixed-odds operators and rebate-getting TAB syndicates) .

..... I hope this probability is not true ..... but the die is cast.

 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-11, 06:35 PM

The 'worry races' are the three 'straight races -- 2, 5 & 7 -- and the three 1400 m races -- 3,4 & 8 -- with inflated fields when barriers are important.

Well, will Mair attempt to put his case forward in an honest manner.

One doubts his ability to.

R3 saw the barriers of no relevance and a trouble free race with the best horse on the day winning

R4= a trouble free race with punters cheering home the 4-1 2nd favourite

R8= Another trouble free race making a joke of Mairs claims.

Ditto the straight races that proved to be a punters delight as they clean up again
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-11, 07:49 PM

The early quadrella paid some $25 k

The F4 dividends on races 3,4,5&6 were $5.5k, 7k 7k &40k.

....... most punters did not win on those races.

The quadrella was Ok -- only I knew that Voodoo Lad was the lay of the day.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-11, 08:06 PM
so you agree that the 1400m races had no interference that affected the result despite your claims pre race meeting
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Aug-13, 12:46 AM
The early quadrella paid some $25 k

The F4 dividends on races 3,4,5&6 were $5.5k, 7k 7k &40k.

....... most punters did not win on those races.

The quadrella was Ok -- only I knew that Voodoo Lad was the lay of the day.

I outlaid $20 on the Melbourne Quaddie but only got $16 back. At least I am satisfied with the knowledge that the integrity of the quaddie races passed the "Mair Pub Test"   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Aug-13, 08:28 AM
  P. M. said above:
Quote
....... most punters did not win on those races.

  Actually 97% or thereabout, of punters do not WIN on ALL Races.  :what: :what: :what:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-13, 02:06 PM
It’s also noted Mair hasn’t been able to tell us what races and horses were affected by his supposed inflated fields.

He’s been exposed as being full of shite again
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-15, 07:24 PM

Caulfield quadrella wreckers for Saturday

Already one can say that two races scheduled for Saturday are likely to be 'rough'.

Race 4, a BM 84 over 1400m,  has a field of 16 + four emergencies -- wait for it!

Race 6, over 1100m for 3yro fillies, has a field of 16 + 3 emergencies -- and giving it 'G3' status is hardly sensible for a race likely to be another 'wait for it' event.

Even the main event -- aG2 over 1400m with 16 accepting --  is an invitation to a dance macabre.

Why would RVL do this?

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2018-Aug-16, 09:53 AM
Well Pete I hope you are right, I will be backing a couple of roughies in both races.....but is you are that is only because punters are not very b-r-i-t-e..........big fields are great to bet in, there is a lot of "mug" money in the pool and for that I would like to say THANKS Pete
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-16, 11:49 AM
Hey Dave, here's a scoop. Even if your so incredibly ignorant as Mair is and cant find a horse to back, any sane person would just choose another race to bet on instead.
Not our brain dead advocate, Peter though  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-16, 06:33 PM

Best wishes Dave

The point to not be missed is that the outcome of inflated-field races is beyond the ken of those expecting the form guide to be useful and those expecting the form guide to be useless.

.......... only on Sunday morning does calm reflection show how what did happen was, incredibly,  predictable enough but overlooked by almost all on Friday.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-16, 08:46 PM
The main thing proven on Sunday is that You’ve been proven to be constantly wrong with your crap.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2018-Aug-17, 12:52 AM
Pete if you and most punters were a detectives criminals would run rampant, unless they came up to you and confessed you would struggle to catch a jaywalker!!! Punting is like being a master detective trying to find a really smart murderer, there are not always a trail of bread crumbs leading you straight to a winner or a murderer....if winning was that easy every winner would be the same price as Winx, who would want that?.....you need to look for clues, sometimes they are subtle, sometimes they hit you in the face so even you could see them.....but the satisfaction you get from finding the subtle clues far outweighs the obvious ones.........people like you are either too lazy or too stupid to look under the surface for clues........but just finding clues is not the answer to winning on the punt.....you have to evaluate them, give them a value i.e. a price....once you learn how to do that, you will be well on the way to being a winning punter.....
You have had this explained to you many times, why are you still beating this drum? Are you obsessed with losing, are you a masochist by nature??, you are the definition of a Masochist...........you keep saying something won't work and you can't win doing it.....but you keep doing it??? is that crazy or what? if you are going to continue to punt, I have an idea that might interest you........learn how!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-18, 02:09 PM
Caulfield quadrella wreckers for Saturday

Already one can say that two races scheduled for Saturday are likely to be 'rough'.

Race 4, a BM 84 over 1400m,  has a field of 16 + four emergencies -- wait for it!

Well, idiot Mair wrong again.

Winner salutes at 2-1 and punters over joyed :clap2:
And the draw didn’t matter either so, Pete, you’re wrong on 2 fronts in the one race  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-19, 07:48 AM
Caulfield quadrella wreckers for Saturday

Race 6, over 1100m for 3yro fillies, has a field of 16 + 3 emergencies -- and giving it 'G3' status is hardly sensible for a race likely to be another 'wait for it' event.

Even the main event -- aG2 over 1400m with 16 accepting --  is an invitation to a dance macabre.

Why would RVL do this?


Oh well Peter. You don’t learn do you.

Monty told  you to throw 5 darts not 4.

Sadly for you all 4 were wrong, again

R4.....as discussed above, you were wrong
R6 sees the crowds favourite, Sunlight salute
R8 sees the 5-1 shot win and it was not your predicted “dance macabre”
4th dart peter, not a quaddy wrecker in sight. Quad paid a paltry $380

Mair goes home wrong but punters overjoyed  :bop:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2018-Aug-19, 04:26 PM
Wily I must agree with Pete on one point, Barriers are very important at certain starts at Caulfield......the actual results not withstanding.......you must give credit where it's due or you risk your own credibility
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-19, 05:06 PM
Dave, Mairs problem is that if he ever raises a good point he ruins it by applying blanket coverage.
The bloke has zero balance.
Of course barriers matter at times but you just can’t  put a line through all of them without doing the form.
Mair fails on both fronts. Form & balance

Pace of the race,  distance, horses racing style, track conditions, what has drawn the “supposed better barriers” and a thing called track bias.

Mair takes none of those factors into consideration and it’s why his theories are constantly proved wrong
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-19, 05:49 PM

Some acceptable outcomes and some not

The early quadrella paid $8,000,  there were two F4 dividends of some $ 20,000 and four of the others averaged some $3,000.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-19, 07:44 PM
That’s the best you’ve got  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-19, 07:48 PM

My 'enough' always beats the 'best' of others!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Aug-19, 07:50 PM
There’s only one thing your beating is yourself
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-26, 06:28 PM

Bad tracks make inflated fields doubly bad

The Vale of Tears is notorious for rough results on a tight track  -- but, they still keep running capacity fields.

What may be passable for black-type events on the track is surely not with inexperienced and low-benchmark horses.

The four early quadrella races were illustrative shockers -- an early quadrella of $20,000 and F4s of $14,000 and $21,000 on races 2 and 5.

WEIR CALLS A SPADE A SHOVEL WITH MOONEE VALLEY TRACK

The Moonee Valley track has become a big concern ... he said “it’s racing terrible.”

Three quarters of the horses that raced at Moonee Valley on Saturday might as well have stayed at home with a stack of speed runners and those on the fence getting the chocolates.

It was basically impossible to win from the back or make ground when pulling wide.

Weir said what plenty of punters were thinking.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-26, 08:30 PM

What a (not) good idea

Maybe the best way -- at Moonee Valley -- would be to leave the rail in one position and let the jockeys find the best ground for themselves

................. except that the inside would soon be worn out.

The best way would limit field sizes so those accepted get a fair go.



The leader bias at Moonee Valley on Saturday was obvious for all to see as eight of the nine winners were in the first two around the corner ...

The Moonee Valley problem is that as soon as the rail gets out to four metres, where it was on Saturday, the leaders gain even more of an advantage.

.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2018-Aug-26, 10:15 PM
while I must again agree with Pete, the "Vale of Tears" is a disgrace but I solved that problem.....I rarely bet there, when I see the races are at the Vale of tears....I just move on...if all punters did that they would do something about it(I would suggest close the track and build units there) with Tracks like Bendigo and others they have some of Australia's best tracks and Victoria is a relatively small state, so travel would not be a huge problem,why can't they hold races on a decent track?? why does it have to be in the city when the city track is too small even for goat races??
every 4th week races could be held at Bendigo, they could race on a circuit where they race at Flemington/Caulfield/Sandown and Bendigo in rotation and once a month hold a city class midweek meeting on each track.......even Caulfield is a little dubious for horse racing..........barriers should not be as relevant as they are at some Caulfield starts.....I don't think reducing field sizes is the way to go, I think racing on bigger tracks that can accommodate large fields would be a better solution to the Problem


Just sell the Valley(and maybe even Caulfield) and better utilise the funds elsewhere.....big spacious tracks is the answer and they have them!.....and Pete could get some rest and give us a break
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-27, 09:44 PM

Punters are vulnerable

...................... most are addicted to betting on Saturday.

RVL taking advantage of addicts is to be deplored.

Addicted punters will roll up to be exploited........  ending  their exploitation depends on RVL deciding to not exploit them.

Imagine if Judge Hayne investigated RVL after he has finished with the banks.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Aug-29, 09:49 PM


A story in two halves

The Saturday MN races seem to have settled on a rough run early ahead of favoured runners taking the quadrella.

On Saturday the rail is out 6m -- handicap races 3&4, over 1400m at Caulfield, with fields of 13 and 16 look risky.

Punters will struggle to cope with capacity fields in most races.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Sep-07, 11:22 AM

Culling inflated fields

The consequences of paying generous prize-money for running 10th are ever more evident.

Race 8 at Rosehill -- a BM88 over 1100m -- has 16 starters and half of those are listed with pre-post odds of 25/1 and more.

Race 2 -- a Highway Robbery over 1200m -- has 17 of the 20 acceptors still in the field and 10 of those are 25/1 or more in the pre-post market.

Surely fair play demands that, for fields of more than 10 acceptors, those unable to be given any meaningful chance should be scratched -- i.e. if their SP with 10 minutes to go is 25/1 or more they just go home.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2018-Sep-07, 02:38 PM
I got it, Pete I know how to solve your problem of roughies getting in the way......campaign for a rule where Bookies can't put up odds over 9/1.....problem solved! and Punters like you would never know they were being screwed.....they still couldn't win....but at least you would be a happy loser, eh Pete?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-07, 06:41 PM

Surely fair play demands that, for fields of more than 10 acceptors, those unable to be given any meaningful chance should be scratched -- i.e. if their SP with 10 minutes to go is 25/1 or more they just go home.

Ducking hell! That’s the biggest brain fart you’ve ever come up with

You’re clueless   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-08, 06:04 PM
Culling inflated fields

The consequences of paying generous prize-money for running 10th are ever more evident.

Race 8 at Rosehill -- a BM88 over 1100m -- has 16 starters and half of those are listed with pre-post odds of 25/1 and more.

Race 2 -- a Highway Robbery over 1200m -- has 17 of the 20 acceptors still in the field and 10 of those are 25/1 or more in the pre-post market.

Surely fair play demands that, for fields of more than 10 acceptors, those unable to be given any meaningful chance should be scratched -- i.e. if their SP with 10 minutes to go is 25/1 or more they just go home.

Well Mair, you got it wrong again  :sad:

Favourites saluted in both those races at Rosehill

Punters went home happy again :thumbsup:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2018-Sep-08, 09:38 PM
WOD when you argue with morons they will drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience.........Pete has plenty of Moron experience
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Sep-12, 09:51 PM

The rot has set in

Across Sydney and Melbourne on Saturday there are simply too many acceptors hoping to run 10th at worst.

These horses should not be accepted to compete if they are not there to win with a realistic chance.

Consider race 4 at Flemington -- 16 inexperienced 3 yro colts have accepted -- half the field is at pre-post odds suggesting 'no chance' and most of those have drawn the barriers closer to the inside.

The clear pre-post favourite -- Brutal -- has the right connections  --  is 2 from 2  -- has drawn 1 -- is expected to lead throughout -- and may well start odds-on.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-13, 08:41 AM
The rot has set in

Across Sydney and Melbourne on Saturday there are simply too many acceptors hoping to run 10th at worst.

These horses should not be accepted to compete if they are not there to win with a realistic chance.

Consider race 4 at Flemington -- 16 inexperienced 3 yro colts have accepted -- half the field is at pre-post odds suggesting 'no chance' and most of those have drawn the barriers closer to the inside.

The clear pre-post favourite -- Brutal -- has the right connections  --  is 2 from 2  -- has drawn 1 -- is expected to lead throughout -- and may well start odds-on.

Peter
Expand on this and tell us before the race the horses names that you consider should not be in this field
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Sep-13, 08:47 AM
The rot has set in

Across Sydney and Melbourne on Saturday there are simply too many acceptors hoping to run 10th at worst.

These horses should not be accepted to compete if they are not there to win with a realistic chance.

Consider race 4 at Flemington -- 16 inexperienced 3 yro colts have accepted -- half the field is at pre-post odds suggesting 'no chance' and most of those have drawn the barriers closer to the inside.

The clear pre-post favourite -- Brutal -- has the right connections  --  is 2 from 2  -- has drawn 1 -- is expected to lead throughout -- and may well start odds-on.

Talk about lies, lies, lies & damn statistics.

16 horse field (1 scr)

$2.40 fav draw 1 (more than 40%)

Only two other horses under double figures - both drawn inside 9 (5 & 8 respectively)

Every horse drawn wider is double figures.

Simple facts don't back up your argument Pete  :no:

It's all good to have a rant Pete but at least be factual  :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-13, 09:12 AM

Simple facts don't back up your argument Pete  :no:

It's all good to have a rant Pete but at least be factual  :bulb:

Exactly why I challenge him in most of his posts

Even when he may have a valid point he backs it up with his lies and runs for the hills

His philosophy is that if you throw enough mud and lies some of it will stick. It’s clearly working on authorized  :sad:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-13, 09:21 AM
For what it’s worth I have a black booked horse in the 4th race. It’s massive odds. Not sure if I’ll back it or not
This is a high quality race with plenty of depth and should not be dismissed.
Plenty of value that will surprise those who are incapable of reading a form guide

I look forward to pegasybers pc thoughts on the race
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-15, 12:40 PM
Quote from: Peter Mair on September 12, 2018, 22:51:13
The rot has set in

Across Sydney and Melbourne on Saturday there are simply too many acceptors hoping to run 10th at worst.

These horses should not be accepted to compete if they are not there to win with a realistic chance.

Consider race 4 at Flemington -- 16 inexperienced 3 yro colts have accepted -- half the field is at pre-post odds suggesting 'no chance' and most of those have drawn the barriers closer to the inside.

The clear pre-post favourite -- Brutal -- has the right connections  --  is 2 from 2  -- has drawn 1 -- is expected to lead throughout -- and may well start odds-on.

Peter
Expand on this and tell us before the race the horses names that you consider should not be in this field

Oeter, I note you have failed to address this simple and polite question

One can only assume your waiting to contribute with 5he value of hindsight to make it easier for you to manufacture a scenario to suit your bent :chin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-15, 04:44 PM
Well peter.
Your concerns failed to matetialise  again.
Predictable results with punters winning again in a trouble free race
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Sep-18, 05:47 PM


Chief steward appointed


Racing Victoria has confirmed Terry Bailey’s former deputy Robert Cram as the state’s new chief steward.

“I’m looking forward to helping each member of the panel continue to develop, while ensuring that we oversee safe, fair, clean and competitive racing for all participants across the state and for all punters betting on our racing,” Cram said.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Sep-24, 06:07 PM

Reflect on Saturday -- low-grade and inflated fields

The 'worst' F4 dividends declared on Saturday were $75,000, 65,000 and 15,000.

The 75k was for the 1500m highway-robbery Race  2 in Sydney  -- 17 accepted, 13 started in a 'rural benchmark 60' event -- this is a warning for the Kosciusko-kaper in mid-October.

The 65k and 14k were for two 1,400m races at Caulfield  --  events notorious for rough results (as are 1400m events at Flemington.)

The 65k rort over 1400m was again effectively a BM 65  race for 3yro fillies -- this race should not have been run.

Melbourne metropolitan racing remains rough because of the inflated fields racing on tracks with problems.

It was pleasing that 7 of the 9 races at Rosehill 10 or less starters -- at Caulfield only 2 of the 9 had 10 or less.

......... the portents heading into a sprung RVL carnival are not good.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-24, 06:24 PM
No rough results on Saturday. Favoured runners dominated.
Punters happy :bop:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-24, 06:32 PM
As to the BM65, here’s s a link to educate yourself
Sadly I jumped in on the early markets and got unders to what she started at :sad:

https://www.racing.com/form/2018-08-25/moonee-valley/race/3


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Sep-24, 07:25 PM
  Not too much wrong with Caulfield Race 8  on 22/09/2018 The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, over 1400 metres  and a crowded field.  Sure the favourite # 2 was a manufactured incorrect favourite, and that is why one must take full notice of the FORM.

 * VF140817 CF82209F * RACE NAME ID* [ CF82209F  2018. SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES,,,,,, 1400 mtrs]. COMPRUN 09-22-2018. AT 08:34:23 RESULT  [    1  10  8  2   ~    4  12    ] F4 $15,832.  # 1 $13.70 win.
 VF140817 CF82209F * SPD ORD TABNO [    4    1    3   12   16   13    9    8   15    5   11   10    2   14    7   ] T5 HI HIT. USE SPD UPTO 1450m
VF140817 CF82209F * SPD RATNG ORD [  999  977  966  962  962  942  924  912  912  910  906  894  890  878  845  ] /1. IN SPEED ORDER
VF140817 CF82209F * AT TRK n DIST SPD [ RW14 AV12 RW12 DB13 RW20 DB20 FL14 MV12 MV12 CF14 CF14 CF14 AV16 CF14 FL16  ] IN SPD ORD*
VF140817 CF82209F * RQOD SPD RORD [  5.4   6.8   8.7   9.5   9.5   15.2   26.2  40.3  40.3  44.6  50.2  78.2  89.8  126.1  321.2  ] $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS IN RATING ORDER *
VF140817 CF82209F * AVAL ODDS FIXD[                                                                                               ] MANUALLY KEY IN FIXED PRICES SPEED RATING ORDER
VF140817 CF82209F * WMSPD ORD TNO [     4     16     12      1      3     13      9     11     15      5     10      8     14      2      7     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  ]*SPL*
VF140817 CF82209F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  1022   996   992   987   979   972   961   946   945   940   937   935   915   890   875   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 CF82209F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  5.7   7.9   8.7   9.8   11.6   13.7   18.7   31   32   39.7   46.4   49.3   104.3   221.6   332.8   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *
VF140817 CF82209F * FXD ODDS AVAIL[   6  15  23  13  23  13  34  61  9  26  21  5  71  5  31  ]  FIXED ODDS AVAILABLE IN WMSPD ORDER

VF140817 CF82209F * GW$CLASS$ ORD [   3    13    1    16    15    8    9    2    12    5    14    11    4    10    7   ].  2 HOME O 14d  100m -.5k  ---  7y]  [ 8 LAND O 14d  200m -3k  ---  5y]  [ 3 SHOWTI 21d  0m -2k  4y]  [ 13 OREGON 21d  0m -4k  5y.
   
  * No 1  Jungle Cat was the Knowledge Base ( or  Mechanical Method )  Win selection in PP7's competition and available on the Forum well before the race was run.   

VF140817 CF82209F * KEY SPEED NOS [   1   +!. +I/C. +GW!. =*NK*.  .]>1.  4   +!.  5    7   +!.  8   +!.  +TJ!. 9   +I/C. +TJ!. 10   +!.  12   +!. +I/C. +TJ!. 13   +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. 14   +!.  +TJ!. 16   +I/C. +GW!.] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 2 +!. <. < 8 +TJ!.  +!. < ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 3  13  << 1  4  7  8  10  12  14  5  <<=BDUPL. *BP%P*= 4 <: ]. <<] S/WDual IS [ 1  1 kg. ] *

RESULT [   1  10  8  2   ~    4  12  ]    # 4 *!MUST KEEP!*d. # 1 *!MUST KEEP!*d. # 12 *!MUST KEEP!*d. # 2 *!MUST KEEP!*d. # 8 *!MUST KEEP!*d. SPCL TR/JK/COMBOS [  8  9  11 12 13 14 15 16 ] DBL CHK *HI$E=[ # 1 ] JUNGLE CAT]. *SCNDHI$E=[ # 7 ] HELLOVA ST}.  <<GW1+  [ 3 13 1 16 15 ]* LRWDV= [ 4  1  7  12  2  8  . +A= LR7D [ 10 ].  . +A= LR7D [ 14 ].  ] I/CCL=[  16  12  1  3  13  9  DUPGWPAC=[  1  5  8  9  13  14  15  ].* MKUP [  0   @ $ 0 ]** * INSURANCE VAL[  0 0 FXD= $0.  0 FXD= $0.] BET NOW! * VALUNOS [  ]* * T5TTLMVS[ 8 14 5 9 10   A S/A. DBLCHK TJC]. *LR7DS=[  10 6yo  14 6yo  ] *CRUSHD=[  7 2  8  10  15  ] ESP*[ 1  4  7  8  10  12  14  5  ]*]. * SPLRESIDS [ ** [  1  2  4  5  7  8  9  10  12  14  15  ] ** CONSIDER NSW/VIC TAB F4S + *SUPASPL [ 0  0kg ]. *BMVRDPL= 1  4  7  8  10  12  14  5  ***  RUN END NORMALLY  ***. CALC TIME=  2.4 Secs.

   Based on the very basic information not even requiring a computer to derive, just look at the Must Keep  selections:  # 4 comes fifth,  #  1  Wins, # 12 comes sixth,  # 2 comes fourth and # 8  comes  third and one of the two "seven days to last run" horses # 10 comes second.  The computer had rightly removed # 7  being an 8 year old and having one other problematic item of data as well, that made its selection marginal.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Sep-24, 10:14 PM

Having a lend of the punters

One can only pray for what the 'pega' says to be published on Friday with the names of the horses.

One can also only pray that the wily one gets the same newspaper on Sunday that we all get.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-25, 07:15 AM
Did you look at the link?

It was there for all to see many days before the race. In fact the printed form even alerted you to it but many chose to ignore it.
Di$ you do any form on the race peter?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Sep-25, 07:43 AM
  Peter, This was the information I was pointing to, and even here under the concept of a "mechanical Method"
 inflexible selection, only got one winner in four.
Quote
Online pegasyber
Group 2
User 909
Posts: 1453


Send PM
« 2018-Sep-22, 07:56 AM Reply #126 »
 Computer "Mechanical System" picks.

SR4  # 6 Sin To Win
SR6  # 3 Dixie Blossoms
SR7  # 6  Santos
MR8 # 1  Jungle Cat
   Still unsure as to whether one can be or remain profitable over the long term from this form of gambling. 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Sep-27, 08:29 PM

Sunday bloody Sunday?

One can only wonder why RVL would allow four races to be run over 1400 m at Caulfield on Saturday.

Race 2, with only 10 acceptors, is rated 'no bet' by PDC -- the others have inflated fields,  14, 16 and 16 acceptors.

What do you think will be the outcome?

Refresh your memory of the 1400m races run on this day last year.

[P.S.    ....... do not forget the valley of tears on 'no moir' stakes night -- the favourites ran well last year.

Tomorrow night, there 6 even money favourites, one at 2/1  and race 6 is more open.]






Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Sep-28, 07:45 AM
What’s wrong with race 2?

Just happens to be a race where one of the bets if the day is taking part :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-01, 10:36 AM
Sunday bloody Sunday?


Race 2, with only 10 acceptors, is rated 'no bet' by PDC -- the others have inflated fields,  14, 16 and 16 acceptors.

What do you think will be the outcome?



What’s wrong with race 2?

Just happens to be a race where one of the bets if the day is taking part :bulb:

Well the outcome was that Mair failed to answer a fair, reasonable & polite question to his thought fart above.

The other outcome is that he got it wrong again and as predicted the bet of the day saluted :no1:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-01, 07:01 PM

........... there is one certain bet every time

I do not think TWOne named the bet of the day in race 2 until today and then only indirectly, claiming it won.

No real complaints about Underwood day but the F4 for the overcrowded 1400 for 3yros paid $16,000.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-01, 07:35 PM
........... there is one certain bet every time

I do not think TWOne named the bet of the day in race 2 until today and then only indirectly, claiming it won.




Why in gods name would I tip it to you but if you have the balls to go and look you will see the following from the TAB tipping Comp thread. You know, thats the thread that you dont even bother contributing the forum on you ferking sponge.
I will await your apology re your bullshit claim that  I didn't tip it :o

MR2 #2 Cliffs Edge :thumbsup:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-01, 09:08 PM


Do not worry about being right even on the odd occasion

                                                                 ........it is an experience I have repeatedly
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-01, 09:12 PM
Not around here old fruit :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-04, 08:14 PM

OKTOBER FEST  -- WHAT AWAITS?

Rain and low-grade racing has put an end to the Sydney spring carnival -- rain or not the prospect of a capacity field in the BM 78 last race at Randwick is an affront to punters.

There is still some banjo-picken hype to come for the mountain races next week but u no.

The focus shifts to Melbourne.

One risk best avoided again this year is wasting form-study time on Friday nights trying to win on sucker-bait at the Valley of tears -- slow-learners will open the MV form guide and get done.

The Flemington program for Saturday has some highlights -- and a couple of low ones.

Race 4 over 1800m for 3ryos has 16 without the four emergencies.

Race 8 over 1600m for 3yro fillies has 16 before scratchings.

Race 9 over 1400 m for mares still has 15 listed to start.

Whether these races warrant 'listed' and 'group' status -- or not -- may be clarified.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-06, 08:58 PM


No complaints

When both MN quadrellas pay no more than $200, the races ran true to form.

MONTY never went beyond his top 3 to get the BSUX paying $1,700.

Even so the 'worst' F4 outcomes  were in the nominated 4th and 9th races ($2.8k and 1.9k)

Sydney was spoiled by a heavy track.

[The outcomes for the Vale-of-tears on Friday were predictably rough -- do not bet on Friday nights, it wastes your time and your money.]
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-26, 02:25 PM


Double header monster events at the Valley

Do not forget last year -- the quaddies on the Friday paid $2,000 and $5,000 respectively  and on Saturday the early quaddie paid $19,000.

Capacity fields again this year on the tight Valley track do not bode well.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-27, 05:58 PM



And so it cam to pass, again

The punters were monstered again, as usual, at the Valley of tears.

Few TAB punters would be pleased with the results of the races at the Valley last night and today.

Running overcrowded races run on a tight track is simply unfair  -- as reflected in the dividends paid for First4 bets averaging some $5,000 today and not a lot less last night.

The next time RVL proclaims 'integrity' just roll your eyes and remember the way inflating fields and turnover harms the most loyal customers and sets the game up for exploitation by corporates and subsidized syndicates.

 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-27, 06:39 PM


And so it cam to pass, again

The punters were monstered again, as usual, at the Valley of tears.

Few TAB punters would be pleased with the results of the races at the Valley last night and today.

Running overcrowded races run on a tight track is simply unfair  -- as reflected in the dividends paid for First4 bets averaging some $5,000 today and not a lot less last night.

The next time RVL proclaims 'integrity' just roll your eyes and remember the way inflating fields and turnover harms the most loyal customers and sets the game up for exploitation by corporates and subsidized syndicates.

Pete - can you please explain your theory here please  :what:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-28, 10:54 AM



exploitation by corporates and subsidized syndicates.....can you please explain your theory here please

A fuller story was in the copy of the DOJ submission posted on 9 August -- these extracts may help.

bookmakers prefer ‘rough results’

The advent of ‘off course’ bookmakers led to TABs offering ‘fixed odds’ betting.

The recent consolidation of bookmaking into fixed-odds TAB options and a couple of local corporates, leaves predators protected.

Corporates (including TABs) writing ‘fixed odds’ tickets have a strong preference for ‘rough results’ – for ‘taking the lot’.

It is no wonder that corporates sponsor ‘inflated field’ racing and advertise prominently, subsidizing racing media.

This is not a good look at all.


crushed totes and plundered pools


Most punters placing small bets are betting into tote pools – also attracted to tote pools are better informed insiders denied access to fixed-odds bets.

With tote pools as a last resort it is common for smart money coming late to crush dividends paid to most punters.

Coupling a big tote pool on the Victorian quadrella – some $5 million nationally – with the prospect of even one rough result, is an attraction for syndicate betting – large bets ‘covering the field’.

Coupling rough results with big-bet rebates is not a good look either.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-28, 12:32 PM
Of course bookmakers prefer rough results but that has nothing to do with some pie in the sky thought of 'exploitation' care to explain how they exploit this?

Bookies prefer rough results as the days of framing a traditional 'book' across the whole field are long gone  :bulb:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-28, 01:13 PM


.......... you may be missing the main point

The problem is about RVL inflating field sizes to boost turnover at the expense of a fair race and so exploiting most punters.

However the markets are framed, the risk of rough results and (bookie_take-all) increases with the size of the field -- more so on 'tight' tracks and in races where 'barrier positions' can be critical (e.g. 1400m at C and F).

There is a naturel cartel in the interests the administrators, TABs,  fixed-odds bookmakers and  politicians -- but no 'free press' to investigate and expose it.

.......as for rebates to syndicates betting big into tote pools -- that is plainly offensive.

   
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-28, 01:22 PM
Um, no. I'm not missing the point, you are failing to grasp that no one is being exploited due to the random nature of the event.

Exploited - "make use of (a situation) in a way considered unfair or underhand"

Please tell me how this is unfair or underhanded?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-28, 01:38 PM

.......... you may be missing the main point

The problem is about RVL inflating field sizes to boost turnover at the expense of a fair race and so exploiting most punters.


Punters have no interest in your bleatings about small size fields.
They want bigger fields where better pay outs are realised.

The fact that the 15 horse MV Cup had 460k bet on the win tote compared to the 8 horse cox plate field which was 360k proves this

Small fields are putrid and stink.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Antitab# on 2018-Oct-28, 02:07 PM
Pete

I haven’t found a bookie that won at the Valley yesterday.

Favourites won races 1, 6,7 and 9 with the three other than Winx  all  very well supported. Cliffs edge was 5 into 2.90.

Race 8 Ventura Storm was $16 into $5.50 , so punters won that one.

Races 2,3 & 4 were good for bookies but the winners ranged from $8 to $13 so they weren’t unfindable.

Race 5 could have gone either way.

Bookies got the lot in the last but Three year old rising in trip often throws up big price winners as those that can stay come to the fore.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-28, 02:50 PM
Come on Anti  According to Mair all those well backed runners were due to inside traders and nothing to do with form   :lol:   :lol:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-28, 04:31 PM

A horse race is a difference of soundly based opinion  -- it is not a chocolate-wheel pick-any-number game.

................you are failing to grasp that no one is being exploited due to the random nature of the event.

how this is unfair or underhanded?


The outcome of a race should not be a random event -- the expectation of the outcome, as expressed in the SP market, is based on the form guide and there are enough uncertainties in that analysis to satisfy most.

The measure of the integrity of the races being run lies in the outcomes being consistent with the market.

Races being run by RVL fail this test when they should be the most likely to pass it -- as history tells.

The game is up when the run of the race is disrupted by horses hoping to run 10th and the cluttering of the field denies the horses there to win a fair go.

This is among the many things that a royal commission would uncover about the misconduct of racing.

The misconduct arises in the coincidence of interests of politicians ,administrators and betting operators and syndicates. This coalition is pitted against the interests of most punters sensibly betting on their opinion but risking an unfair race when fields are inflated with 'troublemakers' hoping to run 10th.

That is what a royal commission would find - that the customers are being exploited by the administrators.



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-28, 04:39 PM



........ and it becomes 'underhanded' when those same administrators are so loudly proclaiming a commitment to 'integrity'  -- something which is not reflected in too many races run on the terms they dictate.

The punters are told one thing and are getting another -- and that deception is underhanded.

The races are not being run fairly -- Cup Week is almost upon us and just wait for that to unfold, as it has in recent years, with rough outcomes .
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-28, 04:59 PM


I do not think so -- rather it illustrates another unfairness

Race 8 Ventura Storm was $16 into $5.50 , so punters won that one.

There was something going on with the Venturra and in Sydney with Gitan -- while not a complete secret both firmed dramatically from the mid-week and morning markets.

Firming from 15/1 to 5/1 is indicative of a bit of a sting  -- the form guides said 'no'.

These are matters the stewards should investigate -- who knew 'what' when and who told them 'what' -- and why was the market generally informed.

Stings like this are considered part of the 'entitlement' of owning and training -- but it becomes something else when the mugs only get the message when the race is about to start and their die is cast.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Antitab# on 2018-Oct-28, 05:16 PM
A horse race is a difference of soundly based opinion  -- it is not a chocolate-wheel pick-any-number game.



Pete

You fail to understand pricing and the market place.

Supply and demand creates the Starting price.

The last winner at MV was 50-1, so ignoring margin the market says that  if you run that race 100 times it will win twice.

Conversely the favourite started 2/1. So it wins that. Race 33 times in every 100.

This isn’t a chocolate wheel, this is a reasonably sophisticated market place that astute punters including syndicates but also including plenty who post here spend 100’s if hours trying to beat.

Plenty succeed.

Until you understand that simple premise I’d suggest the chocolate wheel is where you should spend your disposable income.


At least you will only lose 3 or 4% of your turnover .






Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Oct-28, 05:23 PM
Pete

You fail to understand pricing and the market place.

Supply and demand creates the Starting price.

The last winner at MV was 50-1, so ignoring margin the market says that  if you run that race 100 times it will win twice.

Conversely the favourite started 2/1. So it wins that. Race 33 times in every 100.

This isn’t a chocolate wheel, this is a reasonably sophisticated market place that astute punters including syndicates but also including plenty who post here spend 100’s if hours trying to beat.


Overall I think racehorse betting markets are a thing of beauty - their efficiency on a broad scale never ceases to amaze me.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-28, 05:31 PM

A royal commission will not be re-playing races one-by-one

The decisions will be based on large numbers that will attest to the overall fairness of markets -- but less so in recent years as inflated fields have taken their toll.

........that will be one important finding.

The commission will also look at 'outliers' and the explanations for that -- one outlier that will be addressed is Prince of Penzance -- explained by an inflated field of good horses blocked for a run (a dynamite finding --see above).

...........and some will be found to know too much too often.



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-28, 06:42 PM

I do not think so -- rather it illustrates another unfairness

Race 8 Ventura Storm was $16 into $5.50 , so punters won that one.

There was something going on with the Venturra and in Sydney with Gitan -- while not a complete secret both firmed dramatically from the mid-week and morning markets.

Firming from 15/1 to 5/1 is indicative of a bit of a sting  -- the form guides said 'no'.



The form guides did not say no.

Your lack of doing form said no to your pea brain. In fact the form guide gave you a great push for Ventura Storm.

2 runs back it beaten 1.9  lengths behind a promising horse called WINX :bulb:
In the Caulfield Cup the form comment told you “worked home in 2nd best last 200m split“ :bulb:



Horse being wrongly priced by people incapable of doing form, like yourself, is the reason they firm.
Did you even look at the form for both of those?

What about the great Star Fortune who paid $12 a place on a Friday night. Smart punters cleaned up on it.....did u?

I can talk you through it as well as the other plunge horse Cliffs Edge.
Just ask instead of manufacturing lies :chin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Oct-28, 07:39 PM
Let me apologize first as I know claiming winners after the event is seen as poor form on the forum ... but I have to post my Betfair page for the last in Melbourne for Pete ......
      
Horse Racing > MVal (AUS) 27th Oct : R10 2040m Grp2Showing 1 - 6 of 6 Selections     
Selection OddsStake($)Bid typePlacedProfit/loss($)
10. Stars Of Carrum  50.005.00Back27/10/2018 16:37245.00
10. Stars Of Carrum  120.005.00Back27/10/2018 16:47595.00
10. Stars Of Carrum  120.006.00Back27/10/2018 16:34714.00
2. Outrageous  44.0015.00Back27/10/2018 16:37-15.00
8. Approach Discreet  30.005.00Back27/10/2018 16:47-5.00
8. Approach Discreet  27.0015.00Back27/10/2018 16:35-15.00
*Average odds: On Off    Back subtotal:1,519.00
     Lay subtotal:0
     Market subtotal:1,519.00
     Commission @ 5.4%:82.03
     Net Market Total:1,436.97
      


If I had to give you one piece of advise Pete, it would be stop thinking that you should or have to back the horse you think has the highest chance of winning.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-28, 08:48 PM


Well done W............... at 50/1 ........ very few 'professionals' had the insight and confidence you had
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Oct-28, 09:08 PM
The insight isn't I thought it was very likely to win. I didn't think any of the three I backed were very likely to win. I thought the favourite was the most likely to win, I simply thought the odds offered on the three I backed were out of kilter with the probability they could win. Also your perceived probability of a horses winning chances don't necessarily need to to be founded in it's last couple of runs or the opinion of others.  It can be founded on older form, form around specific variables or even imaginings of future possibilities.

That's why the majority of people on this forum love punting so much. Form analysis opens up a myriad of knowns, unknowns and possibilities. Grappling with those things and forming independent opinions about how they should influence your betting is one of the most enjoyable things I've done in my life. You should try it.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-28, 09:33 PM
Also your perceived probability of a horses winning chances don't necessarily need to to be founded in it's last couple of runs or the opinion of others.  It can be founded on older form, form around specific variables or even imaginings of future possibilities.


I don't make a habit of backing 10 year olds but had something on Who Shot Thebarman yesterday based on the premise of how he's raced at MV in the past and more specifically how he's gone in that race the last 2 years  :bulb:

I know he didn't win but gee it was a great run against the leader bias

On face value of the form guide you wouldn't have looked twice.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-28, 09:51 PM

That's why the majority of people on this forum love punting so much. Form analysis opens up a myriad of knowns, unknowns and possibilities. Grappling with those things and forming independent opinions about how they should influence your betting is one of the most enjoyable things I've done in my life. You should try it.

This.

Peter. Find your positive mojo. Have some fun for chrissake  :yes:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2018-Oct-28, 10:19 PM
A horse race is a difference of soundly based opinion  -- it is not a chocolate-wheel pick-any-number game.



The outcome of a race should not be a random event -- the expectation of the outcome, as expressed in the SP market, is based on the form guide and there are enough uncertainties in that analysis to satisfy most.

The measure of the integrity of the races being run lies in the outcomes being consistent with the market.




1. correct , if you can 't do the form correctly you lose
2.horses are animals and therefore are the same as humans , they feel off , they may have a headache etc etc etc
another thing to add to the interest of having a punt , in other words bad luck
3.if that was the case all favorites would win and the industry would die

not sure of the figures but I think in 100 years of racing 33% of favs win and I don't think this has varied much in that time frame
at all tracks   
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-29, 06:09 AM
I don't make a habit of backing 10 year olds but had something on Who Shot Thebarman yesterday based on the premise of how he's raced at MV in the past and more specifically how he's gone in that race the last 2 years  :bulb:

I know he didn't win but gee it was a great run against the leader bias

On face value of the form guide you wouldn't have looked twice.


Close to the run of the day imho
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-29, 06:11 AM

Also your perceived probability of a horses winning chances don't necessarily need to to be founded in it's last couple of runs or the opinion of others.  It can be founded on older form, form around specific variables or even imaginings of future possibilities.

That's why the majority of people on this forum love punting so much. Form analysis opens up a myriad of knowns, unknowns and possibilities.

Grappling with those things and forming independent opinions about how they should influence your betting is one of the most enjoyable things I've done in my life. You should try it.


 :clap2: :clap2: :clap2:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-30, 12:52 PM

Profits before People

The land of a fair go is slowly submerging under the weight of administrators chasing a buck

The banking royal commission has exposed gross breaches of trust once banks put 'profits before people' -- and that theme quickly extended to insurance and superannuation and mortgage broking.

Much the same it seems in 'aged care', power prices and fuel prices.

This morning the 'real state premier' was waxing lyrical on 2GruB about the way administrators had similarly corrupted the iconic examples of ethical conduct -- 'rugby' and 'cricket'.

It is probably too much to expect that he will similarly see the ever more evident outcome of racing administrators inflating race fields with runners that will be pleased to run 10th.

-------------- he is even unlikely to see that the racing media is so beholden to racing money as to precluded any protest. 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-30, 01:16 PM
Quote from: Peter Mair on October 01, 2018, 10:41:04
Humidor a lay

.........first, thanks for the Deano link.

There was a reason for Humidor to be prepared to win first up over an unsuitable distance -- that may well have been its run for the season,  unlikely to be repeated.



You used Humidors first up win to try and justify a belief you had formed.
It hit you on the arse. You were proven wrong.

Well, his first up effort was repeated and you were wrong again

It’s a fact. Twist it how your like but nothing will change. You were wrong.
You’re allowed to be wrong but most of  us, when we are wrong, have the balls to admit it.

Your ego apparently doesn’t
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-01, 06:20 PM


Big week coming up


..........tighten the seat belt and bet up.................inflated field racing will be educational.

.............................. check out what happened on Derby day last year --  it was disgraceful

                   https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2017-11-04/FLEMINGTON/M/R/9/Win

The quadrellas paid $7,500 and $2,800  --  'lowest' F4 was $4,600 and the highest $100,000 --the four 'lowest' F4s averaged $6,000 and the four 'highest' (excluding the 100k) $14,000.

.....those that go for broke are likely to succeed.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-03, 06:04 PM



.....those that go for broke are likely to succeed.


The issue is about 'overcrowded and inflated fields' and the caution was well warranted -- the last four races, each had fields of 16+

The quaddie paid $50,000 and the four F4s paid 90k, 40k, 8k, and 11k.

...........this is a disg-race  --------- RVL  winning at all costs

[Hold on to your hat -- there is another 3 days of this nonsense to go  -- Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.]
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-04, 09:40 AM


Have a go on Tuesday at Flemington -- and just keep going anywhere


It is now odds-on to rain enough to ensure a slow track.

10 races with chocabloc fields including 3 over 1400 with 16 starters and 3 straight-track sprints -- not forgetting the big-one with 24 starters of which most are not really known imports and a few are unknown fly-ins.

Race 6 and the 3 final races challenge the credibility of 'listed' and 'group 3' status.

For most regular punters it is one of the worst days ..........even once-were-sponsors are deserting RVL

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-06, 07:18 PM


Monty is my monitor

On Cup day in MN he was on the money until race 6 -- and then it unraveled.

The F4 dividends for the last 5 races 6 to 10 averaged some $30,000 and the quadrella paid $25,000.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-06, 07:32 PM

Once-were-sponsors

Why are the sponsors taking their bat and ball home?

The choker on the racing media precludes any comment on the reasons why once-were-sponsors have pulled the rug.

Even so we know sponsors are alert to the value of their funding and would be doing market research to keep track of community attitudes to 'racing' and 'once-were-icon' events.

The racing media should be right on to this -- and the alert was there when Lexus 'was not' and then 'was again' the sponsor of the 'Hotham Handicap' on derby day.

........who thinks Lexus paid the same as before to be enticed to allow its name to be 'used' again?

The racing media are not 'encouraged' to ask these questions.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-08, 05:35 PM


Another rough day at the orifice on hoax day -- and another looms for Saturday


Like klok-work the evidence of klok administration inflating fields rolls in.

Six clearly inflated-field races today returned F4 dividends fairly called an 'outrageous reflection on RVL administrtators.

In order, from Race 2 with 15 starters returning a $27,000 F4 -- Race 5 (16) $2,800  -- Race 6 (15) $44,000 -- Race 7 (13) $7,500 -- Race 8 (15)  $90,000 and Race 10 (17) $60,000

................and the quadrella paid $45,000.

Beware of Saturday -- the kloks have got a squirrel grip on the punters with inflated field races -- not least a 1400m with 16 three year olds accepted.

...........the klok work will unfold.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-08, 06:28 PM


RVL plays dirty-pool with the punters

Race 9 on Saturday is a BM 80 down the straight 1100m with 20 accepting and 16 to start.

Why would the klokers do this -- except to take every last buck they can?

This is the assessment of punters.com:

Nice of the VRC to leave the hardest race of the carnival til last! This looks a near-impossible race to 'get out' on and if you're alive in the quaddie, you would want to have some decent coverage. With little to no confidence...........

Nothing would really surprise here.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-09, 03:47 PM


THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR

Notwithstanding that the fields were smaller, about 12 at most, the quadrellas paid $2,500 and $8,000  --   the F4s over 8 races averaged $8,000 -- with much bigger fields, the portents are not good for tomorrow

 .....those that go for broke are likely to succeed.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-10, 06:04 PM

The MONTY monitor says OK

Monty included 7 of the 9 winners -- 4 on top and one each 3rd,  4th and 5th.

Even so the quadrella paid $24,000 and the F4s included dividends of 40k, 40k, 15k, 13k, and 7k.

Once again the 'cup week' has been a shocker for punters.

......... it is reasonable to say that the inflated fields deliver unfair racing -- and it is a short step to hoping RVL will aim to better balance the interests of most punters.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-12, 09:31 PM


Me-too, banking-too, cricket-too and racing-too

Cricketers, bankers need to stop 'winning at all costs', says rowing legend turned banker

............. Australian rowing legend James Tomkins, .... triple Olympic gold medallist ......his clients are financial advisers working for the big banks and financial services giants.

.................. asked by ABC News about how to fix rotten corporate culture, he preferred not to comment on specific companies...............general parallels between where things have gone wrong in business and sport.

    "When you start concentrating on outcomes at any cost that's where problems arise," he observed.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-13, 06:29 AM


    "When you start concentrating on outcomes at any cost that's where problems arise," he observed.[/i]


Oh the irony   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: bascoe on 2018-Nov-15, 10:39 AM

Oh the irony     :lol:  
Yes indeed -who would think punting on horses would involve predicting outcomes?
Suggestion to Magic - how about a PM thread so the non interested can skip the weekly homily ?


Sent from my iPhone using Racehorse Talk (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=90061)
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-15, 02:31 PM
Bascoe
I’ve sent a PM about PM to Magic but got no response. No5 sure he pays much attention to the joint anymore  :chin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-17, 07:33 PM

Another Saturday in Melbourne -- and another debacle for punters

The carnival is over with a big bang on the way out -- RVL has made a mockery of what was once the best racing in Australia.

Those still thinking that 'inflated fields' are good for them or good for racing need counseling.

Race 3 for 3yro fillies with 16 starters had a $50k F4 dividend and Race 4 -- a G3 with 10 starters -- paid $10k for the F4 -- and the early Q paid $5k.

Races 9 and 10 with 14 and 16 starters had F4 payouts of $25k and $75k -- and a $15k quadrella.

These were Listed and Group 3 races -- one can only wonder about the criteria that allows this' very black type' to continue.

......... and the 'stepford' commentators on R.Com keep smiling and assuring us what a great days racing we enjoyed.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: timw on 2018-Nov-17, 08:48 PM
In my opinion the joke is 2YO black type racing before Xmas.  The Merson Cooper (Listed) had 13 starters of which all were maidens and only 4 had ever faced the starter.  I haven't looked at recent winners but a quick flick through the last Miller's Guide (2014 results) suggests there has not been a classy winner since the early 1990s which is over 25 years ago.  I find it strange that we breed for speed but 2YO races have almost disappeared from the pre Xmas racing program.  There was no 2YO race in Sydney or Adelaide today.  Anywhere else?

Cheers
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: sobig on 2018-Nov-17, 09:43 PM
Brisbane and Perth both had a 2yo race today
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-18, 07:30 AM
Yogi. Tri $59 F4 $159
Cool Passion T$790
Fifty Stars T$31 F190
Ringerdingding T$39 F $290
The Taj Mahal T $88 F$395

Punters went home happy with another winning day. If you didn’t you need to give the punt up  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-18, 07:38 AM
and Peter,

At least 3 times the forum has been alerted to the fact that the market had Cool Passion wrong in terms of price  - the winner of the roughest trifecta Wily mentioned............

 which also makes your claims of 'inside knowledge' a laughing stock.

Market waking up now but too late. Insights into 'market errors' and therefore profits probably beyond you.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-18, 07:52 AM
Highlighting Mairs dishonest approach to justifying his warped desire for minute field sizes, here are the approximate rankings for bets.
After a quick appraisal of the NSW pools It shows that punters don’t give a stuff about Mairs brain farts in regards to divvies of quaddies or F4s. They rank lowly in desired investments for punters

1. Win Betting
2. Place
3. Trifecta
4. Quinella
5.F4
6. Doubles
7. Quaddy
8. Exacta
9. Early Quaddy
10. Duet
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-18, 04:23 PM

Most punters betting on these four races yesterday were not happy at all.

Race 3 for 3yro fillies with 16 starters had a $50k F4 dividend and Race 4 -- a G3 with 10 starters -- paid $10k for the F4 -- and the early Q paid $5k. Races 9 and 10 with 14 and 16 starters had F4 payouts of $25k and $75k -- and a $15k quadrella.

These were races with unfairly inflated fields and three winners paying 30/1 +-- it is no answer to the problem in focus to list other races that ran fairly, where the favourites dominated.

......... it is not a one-off problem it is an entrenched problem that goes to the heart of the businesses exploiting the industry
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2018-Nov-18, 05:02 PM
Most punters betting on these four races yesterday were not happy at all.

Race 3 for 3yro fillies with 16 starters had a $50k F4 dividend and Race 4 -- a G3 with 10 starters -- paid $10k for the F4 -- and the early Q paid $5k. Races 9 and 10 with 14 and 16 starters had F4 payouts of $25k and $75k -- and a $15k quadrella.

These were races with unfairly inflated fields and three winners paying 30/1 +-- it is no answer to the problem in focus to list other races that ran fairly, where the favourites dominated.

......... it is not a one-off problem it is an entrenched problem that goes to the heart of the businesses exploiting the industry

Field sizes quoted above are a little out by my reckoning

The following Win totes and field sizes yesterday for Syd and Melb indicate to me that generally punters prefer larger fields.

A larger sample probably needs to be examined.

  Rosehill 17 Nov 2018   NSWTAB   
Race   Starters   
No   No   
1   7   $87,809.65
2   4   $43,267.00
3   11   $141,222.50
4   6   $121,696.80
5   7   $159,714.50
6   10   $184,465.00
7   12   $260,090.30
8   8   $212,432.35
9   12   $257,494.60
      
Sandown 17 Nov 2018   NSWTAB   
Race   Starters   
No   No   
1   11   $98,379.50
2   9   $117,240.20
3   15   $186,587.80
4   9   $163,937.70
5   11   $209,803.80
6   8   $167,574.30
7   12   $247,626.10
8   8   $252,667.40
9   13   $269,006.60
10   15   $281,586.40
   

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: arthur on 2018-Nov-18, 06:31 PM
They didn't teach statistics when I went to reform school, but to me it is intuitive . . if not axiomatic  :chin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-18, 06:43 PM
Thank you JWH -- you make my point well (as Arthur notes).

The whole point of inflating field sizes is about boosting turnover -- the bigger your sample the more the evidence will confirm this. With 'rough racing' punters have to cover much more 'luck in running'.

There are more relevant questions.

One is about about the association of inflated fields with 'rough results' -- as measured by the departure of TAB dividends from the expectations of the pre-post market.

Yesterday was illustrative as have been most days of the 'sprung carnival' -- inflating the fields, paying for 'cluttering appearances' , is a precursor to both 'higher turnover' and 'rough outcomes'. Cup day is notorious.

The beneficiaries of 'rough results' are firstly the 'can't lose' fixed-odds bookmakers, second the (mal)administrators getting more money for racing, third the rural beneficiaries of washing city money through non-viable rural racing interests, -- and the also-rans, including the politicians ensuring no kick-back in racing electorates and breeders and others claiming 'victories' that are effectively fraudulent.

...... if the banking royal commissioner even glanced at this systemic rorting of punters he would ask for a new brief.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2018-Nov-18, 07:03 PM
Peter

You don't  know, or seem willing to ignore, the fact that racehorse punters are, in the main, canny creatures.

Maybe you should turn your interests to alerting pokie players of how they are being duped.

 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-18, 07:50 PM


Again 'thanks' JWH -- for suggesting that racehorse punters are, in the main, canny creatures.

The evidence here is overwhelmingly against you.

The evidence is that 'in the main' , when fields are inflated, the punters bet more but are most likely to lose.

As for yesterday -- who do you think were the main beneficiaries of the 'rough results'  -- obviously not any few 'canny punters' but more likely fixed-odds bookmakers -- more obviously it was the syndicated betting operations that cleaned up on the 'lotto like' F4 and quadrella pools.

....inflated-field racing is a blight on the industry and sensible punters would be avoiding 'inflated field' races and concentrating on fair-fields.

----- the evidence you present more likely suggests exactly the opposite ... punters are not able to bet confidently.

Keep feeding me lines!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: arthur on 2018-Nov-18, 09:54 PM
sensible punters would be avoiding 'inflated field' races and concentrating on fair-fields.

Some sensible punters do; and some sensible punters don't . . and some sensible punters do both

But the 'canny punters' always get value . . even though they don't always get winners

The lazy punters will always lose, no matter the field size . .  and you can't legislate against laziness or stupidity . . nor should you be able to




Take the last race at the Sunny Coast today . . was it an inflated field?? . . Your opinion is as good as mine

Did the Corps win on it?? Probably

But the 'early market correction' indicates that the 'canny punters' who shopped early got 51.0 about a horse which was returned @ 17.0

BTW . . I wasn't one of them, but I did get 51.0 about a horse that opened @ 17.0 and ran 4th or 5th . . and I think that I got 'value'


PS
The day that 'luck in running' ceases to play a part will see the end of racing as we know it

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-18, 10:15 PM
Peter,

According to you a small field is a fair field so how do you explain how horses win at long odds in your so called fair field?

Remember you claim that rough odds mean its not fair as well so you cant have both contradicting each other surely?

Unless of course your logic is fatally flawed......

eg Karlovasi wins at 20/1 in an 8 horse field at Morphetville on Saturday.

Now Peter I can give you chapter and verse on why the 20/1 was a huge error in pricing but I will just start with something you almost certainly don't know but is available to all... if they would only do a little research.... when Jake Toeroeke jumps on a horse trained by R & C Jolly  the win strike rate AND place strike rate are BOTH higher than their overall career performances.....and both of those are just fine.

Peter did you even notice the fact there was a jockey change? Was it not for a much much much higher strike rate jockey for this trainer?

Once again Peter this is information available to ALL and once again your claims of 'inside knowledge' are a laughing stock.

Laziness..... Peter is the answer you put your head in the sand over.

And Peter this is only 1 point  - I could give you chapter and verse!
 
Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-19, 07:10 AM
Thank you JWH -- you make my point well (as Arthur notes).


I’m not sure if I should applaud or condemn your arrogance. You do it so well

  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-20, 10:48 PM

Sydney rules

The limits of 'relevant racing'

I pay no attention at all to any racing bar Saturday-class racing in Sydney and Melbourne -- and as readers know anything at all to do with Melbourne is about to join the rest of Australia in the bucket that says 'do not bet here'.

The idea that anyone would put a case based on 'racing' in Brisbane or Adelaide is beyond the pale of credibility.

Even in Sydney there are clear 'dont's' attaching to 2yro and 3yro races as well as any 'inflated fields' where horses finishing 10th are 'winners' for their connections.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2018-Nov-21, 12:25 AM
Peter,

The only credibility strained beyond hope is YOURS.

Roughies in small fields winning occurs everywhere.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Nov-21, 06:58 AM
And nobody wants to bet on small fields apart from Mairs professionals with the computer programs.....the people he constantly slags off.

It’s clear Mair doesn’t care about that the small punter, it’s about his own ego being heard :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Nov-30, 09:23 PM

A word about betting tomorrow -- DONT

........ off-season racing with inflated fields across the board means losses for almost every punter.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Dec-01, 09:09 AM
Cracking good racing across the country today.
Ascot and Brissy in particular
Got a few nice bets at the valley but need to see how the goat track is playing before unloading
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Dec-06, 07:48 PM

What to pack for Pakenham -- money and courage

Consider what happened last year:

.........early and main quadrellas paying some $25k and $100k; and

.............overfull F4s including a $10, $15 and $30k and $60k on the Pak Cup.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Dec-07, 09:21 PM

More tears at the Vale

When will RVL bite the bullet -- close the Valley and stop stealing from punters.

Apart from the quadrellas paying $ 6 and 8 k -- there were two F4s paying $13 and 14 k.

.... why does anyone bet on this nonsense?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Dec-09, 08:03 AM

Pakenham......better this year but still not a fair day at the races

The quadrellas this year paid $800 and $3,000........... but  6 of the 9 F4s paid more than $3k --- including a 15k, 30k, 7k and 9k.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Dec-14, 11:40 AM


Betting at Flemington tomorrow......be afraid, be very afraid

“The track is a little bit tender and a little bit new.

“Straight off the renovation, it will race a bit fluffy and a bit new until it beds down and that probably means one (track) rating worse than what you might otherwise expect.”


This word of caution comes on top of RVL scheduling low grade races with inflated fields.

..... what do you think will happen in Race 2 with 13 starters over 1400 m in a benchmark 70 for 3yros?

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Dec-14, 03:42 PM
You tell us what you think will happen.....for once
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Dec-14, 09:28 PM


The TAB dividends will answer the question tomorrow.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2018-Dec-14, 09:45 PM
Define "Inflated Fields "  How many should be allowed to run  ?  Six , Seven , Eight or even Four ?. When does it not become an inflated field ?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Dec-14, 09:56 PM
Sad Canterbury tales and more tears at the Vale.

......................the race results tonight illustrate the relevance of the question: why would anyone bet on Friday night?

Forum members know enough to know that betting on Friday night is not only a wealth hazard but the exposure of your betting account records could be the basis for having oneself committed to 'care' at her majesty's pleasure.

Look up the 'results'  -- and be chastened by quadrella and F4 dividends of 24k, 5k,5k,  -- and onto F4s of 16k, 5.5k, 4k, 3k, 6k, 10k+, 5k, 9k.

..... wear a mask if you attend any Friday night meeting and only bet in cash.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Dec-14, 09:59 PM


How many should be allowed to run ?


Gunner -- I would be happy to trust your judgment of the numbers for a fair race.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2018-Dec-15, 09:13 AM

Gunner -- I would be happy to trust your judgment of the numbers for a fair race.

But he asked you.

How many do you think is the number required?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Dec-15, 09:36 AM
The blokes a turd, he wont answer :thumbsup:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Dec-15, 08:10 PM


I respect the ability of other members to understand when an inflated field will probably corrupt the outcome.

Working back from 'lotto like' dividends is a clue to a race that was unfair.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Dec-18, 03:39 PM

Tomorrow at Caulfield

............ a big day for races over 1440 m -- mainly maidens and low benchmarkers.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Dec-18, 07:06 PM
So what.  :o
Do you want a few 6 horse fields of G1standard thrown in for you.
Dont hlbet if you're not up to doing the form
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: bascoe on 2018-Dec-18, 10:17 PM


Working back from 'lotto like' dividends is a clue to a race that was unfair.
If we could ‘work back’ from the dividends wouldn’t we also have a clue about the results? Just shows how out of touch you are...

Try draughts or tic tac toe - punting seems beyond you


Sent from my iPhone using Racehorse Talk (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=90061)
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jan-05, 08:15 PM

RVL has much to answer for -- not least Caulfield today.

The early quadrella paid $70k.

There were two grossly inflated  F4s -- one paying $83k and another $25k.

The two races over the notoriously unfair 1400m, saw F4 dividends of $4.7k and $4.6k.

............ these outcomes are consistent with determination to take the bucks over delivering a fair product ....... they are especially pleasing to corporate bookmakers.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jan-17, 06:09 PM

Nothing funny about this farm fiasco

On Wednesday, the average starting price of the winning quadrella runners was 33/1 +.

The quadrella dividend 'should pay' was in the range $600,000 to $1,000,000+  -- some two-thirds of the Quadrella pool was 'jackpotted'.

Perusal of the newspaper tipping polls suggested these 4 winners were 'a complete surprise' to everyone.

No one would have any confidence that RNSW will spend any time reviewing 'what happened' and 'why' -- or if they did that any policy changes would be made.

Imagine the joy at  Tabcorp and other fixed-odds 'booktakers'.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jan-19, 08:48 PM

A tale of two cities -- a disgraceful tale of one city

.......... as mature observers of what passes for racing gambling in Melbourne ...............you will be able to compare the outcome of Melbourne racing today with  that in Sydney.

The comparison could hardly be more starkly damming of the quality of the racing presented in Melbourne.,

Use your own benchmarks: mine are the 'tips' published in the SMH as 'Monty's Top 5' -- an analyst without peer in the media.

Today , in Sydney, Monty's only 'miss' was the overcrowded 16 starter low-grade 'HWY' for rural runners -- races that have no place on a Saturday metropolitan program.

Otherwise Monty included every winner in his 5 -- in 7 races he had 3 of the first 4 and in 2 races he had the first4.

In Melbourne there was the usual shambles.

.......... 6k and 12k quadrellas - F4 dividends of 50k, 30k, 13k, 7k, 5k and 4k  -- an absolute indictment of the 'rubbish' quality of the racing presented by RVL.

Monty included the winner in his 'top-5' in 5 of the 9 races but otherwise fell well short of a comparable performance with his Sydney selections.

This characteristic outcome is disgraceful --the fixed-odds corporates revel in the absence of any semblance of product quality control in the racing presented by RVL.

...... talk about a field-day .............. the corporates would be overjoyed ..... will probably sponsor more rubbish racing.

The TAB pools on the MN quadrella  ran to some 'went-west' $2 million+ and the corporates would have lapped up more.

The Victorian government should put a full stop to this rorting of TAB punters.



 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2019-Jan-19, 09:07 PM
Doesn't matter which horse wins the take is the same
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jan-20, 07:37 PM


au contraire = rats!

              doesn't matter ............ the take is the same

The take is not the same at all -- and is that not just the problem.

The TAB take from the parimutuel pools is 'the same'  -- but these days the action at TAB -- and at the corporates -- is much more about fixed-odds betting.

With fixed-odds betting the 'take' is unlimited -- it Melbourne on many races the 'take', with inflated fields usually meaning an outsider winning, is closer to 100% than 15%.

This spills over into 'exotics' bets placed with corporates 'matching' TAB payouts but not kicking the funding  tin with a 25% takeouts from F4  and B6 pools.

Even TAB 'takes' are eroded by 'rebates' to syndicates plundering exotic pools.

......allowing and faciltating this rorting of TAB punters is a disgraceful reflection on administrators taking their cut and TAB's not standing up for their customers.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2019-Jan-20, 08:09 PM
A tale of two cities -- a disgraceful tale of one city

.......... as mature observers of what passes for racing gambling in Melbourne ...............you will be able to compare the outcome of Melbourne racing today with  that in Sydney.

The comparison could hardly be more starkly damming of the quality of the racing presented in Melbourne.,

Use your own benchmarks: mine are the 'tips' published in the SMH as 'Monty's Top 5' -- an analyst without peer in the media.

Today , in Sydney, Monty's only 'miss' was the overcrowded 16 starter low-grade 'HWY' for rural runners -- races that have no place on a Saturday metropolitan program.

Otherwise Monty included every winner in his 5 -- in 7 races he had 3 of the first 4 and in 2 races he had the first4.

In Melbourne there was the usual shambles.

.......... 6k and 12k quadrellas - F4 dividends of 50k, 30k, 13k, 7k, 5k and 4k  -- an absolute indictment of the 'rubbish' quality of the racing presented by RVL.

Monty included the winner in his 'top-5' in 5 of the 9 races but otherwise fell well short of a comparable performance with his Sydney selections.

This characteristic outcome is disgraceful --the fixed-odds corporates revel in the absence of any semblance of product quality control in the racing presented by RVL.

...... talk about a field-day .............. the corporates would be overjoyed ..... will probably sponsor more rubbish racing.

The TAB pools on the MN quadrella  ran to some 'went-west' $2 million+ and the corporates would have lapped up more.

The Victorian government should put a full stop to this rorting of TAB punters.

if that's the case , what was the pools on fixed odds
just because a quaddie in the tote pays x doesn't mean the corporates won .
what was their hold , you don't know
stop posting your waffle and lies
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jan-20, 09:28 PM


..........rats again!

If the corporates pay the same dividends on exotic bets -- but do not pay the same 'take' as TABs -- then rough results mean they 'cop the lot'.

More importantly, with 'fixed odds' betting neither TABs nor corporates pay much in the way of take-out -- and rough results mean they may well be 'copping' close to 100% of the bets placed on losing favoured horses.

Think about it -- everyone else, besides most punters, has a keen commercial interest in 'rough results'.

........in Victoria that seems to be reflected in administrative policies that benefit the 'fixed odds' operators.

This is not a good look -- and the regularity of the bad look begs the questions of why the administrators do not put quality controls in place -- and why TAB do not demand it on  behalf of most customers.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-Jan-20, 10:19 PM
Peter,

The idea of a handicap race is to ........

1) leave the best horse winning by 30 lengths  or

2) make for a close finish or at the very least a more evenly matched field to enhance betting activity AND retain interest in the challenge of picking the winner?

Peter.... you more than most should be careful of what you wish for.    If you actually got what you wanted racing would be finished.

Fours

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jan-21, 09:24 AM


True enough


............ you could have gone on to say that it is unfair to those horses 'there to win' to be cluttered and impeded by runners happy to run 10th with no expectation of winning but sometimes being a 'bradbury'.

The inflated dividends declared on Saturday, and too often on other Saturdays, suggests the RVL policy is deliberately intended to deliver results at odds with the SP market.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-Jan-21, 10:47 AM
Peter,

Had a friend text me saying he liked a real roughy Wenner to be in the finish. I said I like the favourite and Amadeus.

Those are 3 of the 4 placings in the 31grand first four - somewhat better than your alleged champion tipster and the very reason why people like such results.

Such results are what is possible once you do your own form and abandon public tipsters.

Note that the favourite won.

Fours

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jan-21, 11:13 AM
I dont know anyone who even read the tipsters selections aside from our donkey minded Mair
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jan-22, 11:57 AM


I can well understand that -- it fits the profile you present.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jan-22, 08:28 PM
Have you looked at the sales figures for newspapers?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jan-23, 09:13 PM


Magnificent Monty ----- cleaned them up again today in Sydney

The only media tips not freely available are those of Monty in the SMH -- and punters would be well advised to get them.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-Jan-23, 09:27 PM
Peter,

Please work on your maths skills before you make embarrassing comments!

Assuming the 4 picks got all 8 winners a loss is shown ie less than 32 units returned for win bets for the 8 winners.

That's not cleaning up - refer to my mention of a 31g first four if you ant an idea of what is.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jan-24, 06:38 AM

Magnificent Monty ----- cleaned them up again today in Sydney

The only media tips not freely available are those of Monty in the SMH -- and punters would be well advised to get them.

Did he have 5 picks in each race again?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-Jan-24, 10:27 AM
Oh dear,

If it was 5 picks than that is a shocking loss.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jan-25, 06:33 AM
Oh dear,

If it was 5 picks than that is a shocking loss.

Fours


Oh yes. He has 5 picks in every race and old disingenuous Mair doesn’t tell us which one of Montys 5 he backs.
He just gets a bit excited when one of the 5 darts manages to hit the board
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jan-31, 06:10 PM

It is not just me -- that is questioning what is going on at RVL

Scroll through this ' be very wary' preview for Saturday:

https://www.punters.com.au/news/caulfield-preview_176725/

Let your mind run riot on the prospects for race 9 being run fairly -- 15 starters over 1400 does not bode well.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jan-31, 06:27 PM


SPY v. SPY --   almost a mad parody written by Alfred E Neuman

RNSW has embraced the inflated-field nonsense -- paying even more than RVL for barrier-trialers  'running 10th'.

........ even so, there are better prospects in Sydney for race outcomes being consistent with the form-guide

https://www.punters.com.au/news/rosehill-preview_176730/

One can only wonder what is going wrong with racing in Melbourne and where it will end.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Feb-11, 08:44 PM


All-Star stuffup

The following comment posted (by not me) on Racenet is illustrative of the problems of inflating fields with runners that do not belong -- and competing for recovering participation costs or -- in the All Star case -- getting $90,000 for running 14th.

RVL has an inability to learn.

The All Star Mile is a joke and a mockery on serious horse racing. Why have Z rated horses racing against group 1 horses? All they will do is get in the way and no doubt, drop off at the 600 metre mark when the pressure is applied. And dare I say it, they could cause serious interference to the good horses who have a winning chance in a $5 million dollar race. The Melbourne Racing heads have struck a real dumb idea here which is destined to be a huge embarrassment to horse racing. They have great carnivals already following traditional methods. At least in the Everest you have the best horses racing, but this voting idea is simply ridiculous, especially when you have horses like Urban Ruler and Mr Money Bags likely to get a spot.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-02, 06:26 PM

A real BUMper day at Flemington today

The portents could hardy have been worse -- a program with 3 races over the notorious 1400m, three 'up the crooked strait' and two over 1600.

......and the travesty was duly delivered........... quadrellas paying $2k and $3k along with F4 'dividends' of 28k, 14k, 10k, 3k and 2k.

This debacle at the peak of the Melbourne autumn carnival.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-10, 10:02 AM


Another BUMper day at Flemington yesterday

......... on a time-honoured day when the quality of Melbourne carnival racing was once at its best, punters got another shafting.

Quadrellas paying 4k and 60k -- along with F4s of 7k,5k,9k,and 180k -- with another 3 in the 2.5k range.

These outcomes are a disgraceful reflection on the (ir)responsible racing administrators.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-11, 10:35 AM

Insights into RVL thinking -- inflated fields don't matter

The RVL chief-handicapper's assessment of the no-star mile is consistent with the RVL policy of inflating fields with no-hopers --  the legitimacy of the race............. is judged on the first four finishers.

That's not the way TAB punters see the game -- all too often the first four over the line are not the four best runs but the four that survive the clutter and overcome wide barriers.



Asked if he was nervous about some of those in triple-figure odds potentially being beaten out of sight and creating some red races next Saturday, Carpenter replied:

“Not really, as far as the legitimacy of the race, every Group I race in the world is judged on the first four finishers,” he said.

“There is no minimum rating in the Arc De Triomphe, there is no minimum rating in the Breeders Cup races.

“This race shouldn't be viewed through the traditional Group I lens and that's probably what I think some of the discussion has missed the mark.

“This race doesn't have to be a Group I race.

“It's about embracing racing for all and allowing horses that wouldn't normally get into a Group I race the opportunity to compete for rich prizemoney.”
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-17, 09:25 AM

Inflated fields are spoiling the game

Saturday will illustrate the story:  4 dire-strait races -- 2 each of 1400&1600m races with inflated fields of 16 -- and a 2000m race with 16 starters.

Saturday did tell the story -- 20 starters in low-grade BM 80 races make for a mess -- as do dire-strait races for 2yro fillies.

Sydney racing was better -- but 20 starters in a G1 over 1500 m at Rosehill is a plan for a $200,000 F4 dividend.

.......... punters must be getting the message -- week after week in Melbourne!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-Mar-17, 09:29 AM
Peter,

Why aren't you making a killing every week?

You could be laying the shorties in all these fields PLUS

taking the 200g combos only in the first four and quaddies to clean up at very little expense.

Unless of course you don't believe your own spiel.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-18, 09:52 AM


Why aren't you making a killing every week?

.................... same reason as you and most others.

It is not about the winning odds being short or long -- rather it is the irrelevance of the form guide to the outcomes and the opportunities this opens for one 'to be got ready' and smoked in without any qualifying restraints.

.............. the MN carnival has seen some stunts pulled off undercover of 'inflated fields'.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Mar-18, 10:27 AM
The formguide is not irrelevant it's that you don't use it :tin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-18, 09:01 PM

Modest punters would not be happy


...........even the wily one must be having second thoughts about 'inflated fields' delivering rough results and providing the cover for one smoked in, to run well, in defiance of the form guide.

I can understand me missing clues in the form guide but long-odds winners suggest almost all others missed read it also.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Mar-19, 06:28 AM
I’m sure You won’t be bothered to do it, Peter, but look at these 2 links then come back and tell me the answer to your question

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2019Mar05&VenueCode=NTIzMTQ2&RaceNumber=2&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2019Mar18&VenueCode=NTIzMTQ2&RaceNumber=2&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay





Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-19, 08:49 AM


Please remind me of the question?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-19, 12:09 PM

RVL on the slippery slope?

Situations unfold unevenly and in complex ways.

I have a real allergy to the Racing.com broadcast presenters -- simply could not watch a 'get on' become 'get-off'.

The news that David Gately no longer fits in that RVL culture is not surprising -- and I would also be pleased to see NSW welcome back Brent Zerafra.

............ one very welcome exposure would be the 'presenter guidelines' given to R.Com presenters................. there do seem to be tight restrictions on any allusions to tips gone astray and punters expectations being unfairly disappointed.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Mar-19, 12:56 PM

Please remind me of the question?

Watch the 2links and tell me why the winner started at $41
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-Mar-20, 01:02 PM
Peter.

Hawkesbury today...

R1  and a field of 7 runners     $14 winner - 2nd longest in the field
R2 and a field of 7 runners     $36 winner longest price in field

Your inflated field theory is looking worse by the second.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Mar-20, 01:28 PM
4s, he will fall back on his other brain fart about insider trading instead :tin:

I note he hasn’t addressed my previous post as it would result in him agreeing with me, which he doesn’t have a high enough degree of personal integrity to do :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-21, 04:00 PM

Saturdays only  -- and only in Sydney and Melbourne

It is too difficult for most to explain rough results in 'black type' races in Sydney and Melbourne -- and  administrators certainly do not want any competent race watcher 'explaining' how the fair running of a race was compromised by various factors in the control of the administrators.

The idea that people bet on maiden races run on heavy tracks out-of-town is a mystery of the world.

....... explaining why a long-odds runner won the race is a deeper level of mystery.

I would have to rely on the assessments of people like wily and fours.

The lesson to be drawn is 'do not do it' -- Saturday only is the only go.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Mar-21, 07:05 PM


....... explaining why a long-odds runner won the race is a deeper level of mystery.

I would have to rely on the assessments of people like wily and fours.

So you didn’t even have the courage or honesty to even look at the links.
Instead you chose to pedal your lies
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-27, 06:31 PM


BENDY-NO-GO ON SATURDAY

RVLs dereliction of national-obligation to the racing industry can hardly be more clear than with the meeting scheduled for Bendy-no-go on Saturday.

Check out the low-grade, inflated menu being served up at Bendy-no-go on Saturday.

http://www.racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2019Mar30%2CVIC%2CBendigo

This low grade nonsense detracts from the overall opportunity for punters nationally to enjoy the Sydney carnival.

It follows on the farce of the no-star-mile and the standalone stay-away at somewhere last Saturday.

Where is the needed national leadership from the miss-called Racing Australia?





Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-27, 06:50 PM

Have a go at this for RVL tripe at Sandown today:

Early Quaddie 3-2-5-10  $9,425.40

Quaddie 6-10-3-7 $25,106.00

First Four    10-5-8-6  $8,939.50 Jackpot $1,215.51

First Four    3-1-12-11    $20,543.70 Jackpot $8,714.80

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Mar-27, 07:04 PM
Welcome back peter, you weak as piss fool.  :lol:

Of course we didn’t hear from your after punters cleaned up at last weeks stand alone meeting atMornington where the quaddy was a paltry $470.

You’re a dishonest spammer, lacking integrity  :bulb:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-27, 07:50 PM


Self Sense and common sense are different

Let us see what you have to say on Monday  -- most times the outcomes are against you.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-29, 08:29 AM


Learning from last year

With the exception of a winner at 60/1, the winners last year averaged around 5/1.

This did not preclude some rough F4 outcomes.

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2018-04-07/BENDIGO/M/R/9/Win

Tomorrow is another day but the fields are over full and some rain is forecast  -- in most races only a couple of runners are under 10/1 and excluding those that do not warrant a start would improve the prospects of fair racing.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-29, 08:07 PM


Why would RVL allow this nonsense to continue?

At Warnambool today:

Early Quaddie    7-6-3-2      $6,991.00

Quaddie      2-10-10-8      $22,235.20
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Mar-29, 08:11 PM
Why don’t they stop idiots from punting?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-30, 07:56 AM


-----------  your freedom is something to be treasured
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Mar-30, 11:13 AM
Like most punters I’m hoping to buy my freedom via a massive quaddy divvy in both states :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-30, 07:27 PM


............. 'hope' is not a strategy -- Bendy-no-go as expected,  a $3k quadrella -- including $70K and 25k F4s on the two feature races run with chock-a-bloc fields .
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Gintara on 2019-Mar-31, 01:32 PM
Well Pete, one of the most respected judges in Dean Lester found that quaddie you are complaining about.

If you won't do the work yourself then you could do far worse than listen to what Dean has to say.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Mar-31, 07:59 PM


No disagreement --Dean Lester and Mark Hunter on 2KSKY at 9 am on Saturdays are the best tipping duo in Melbourne.

.......... when the both put one on top -- get on!.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Apr-01, 06:21 AM
Hunter is a poor tipster.

Lester exceptional
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2019-Apr-04, 03:11 PM
I don't believe this thread is still going,I thought it would have run out a long time ago.........
I would like to add that I love big fields where luck counts.....that is why it is called Gambling.......

lets take a poll.....how many times has Pete or Authorized or any other Punter on this forum backed Winx?

That is the only way to take luck out of the equation.......and even then she is still just flesh and Blood, you can never completely eliminate Luck.....if you did you would also eliminate Bookies and the TAB......if results were easy to pick for lazy morons you could never get a bet on............there needs to be 2 sides to make a contract.......it ain't rocket science, you know what they say.....if you can't stand the heat....get out of the Kitchen!!
Remember the story of King Midas, be careful of what you wish for
P.S. unlike Champs of the past, both Winx and Black Caviar are boooorrrriiiinnnng!........they should be racing for Ribbons cos that is all they are worth, they take away any semblance of competition.....and I appreciate they are magnificent horses and I love them for that.......but to want that kind of thing to run through our racing any more often.....is booorrring!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Apr-04, 03:35 PM
Dave, the point lost on Mair and his brain farts is that the vast majority of races that he claims are affected by big field & interference is a total nonsense.
I’ve asked him to highlight interference in numerous races and he can’t or doesn’t.
The reason is he’s a bald faced liar pushing his own barrow.

Gutless, self centred, twits like him operate on the premise of throw plenty mud, not honesty
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2019-Apr-04, 10:06 PM
Yeah wily but gee you have to admire his tenacity.............he knows he is on his own but sticks to his guns, which is OK I am a lot like that myself but if others disagree with me I don't bang my head on a Brick wall until everyone agrees with me, I know I am right and that is all I care about........but only an idiot would waste their time trying to change what others think to the nth degree like Pete does
I am an Atheist but I would never try to convince the Pope there is no God, I figure he'll find out soon enough and I don't care that much anyway....

But Pete would be banging at the Door of the Vatican every day until the Pope conceded Pete was right.....not sure who would win that one but it would at least Keep Pete busy for a while??
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-16, 03:35 AM


Shocking prospects for Saturday -- it could hardly be worse

Inflated fields all over for Saturday and the contest will be about the venue to show the biggest dividends -- the worst outcome for punters.

............ it is hard to go past Flemington  ................. it is mid year............... it is low grade filler  ......... and 5 of the 9 races are over 1400m.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-16, 07:47 AM
Poor Pete , You’re now lying to your self  :lol:

5 races over 1400m.
Field sizes of 11, 12,13,16 & 12

Under your much blurted brain farts that is on one race where the field is “inflated “ under your much spewed criteria of 14 maximum

You’ve tied your self in knots  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2019-May-16, 05:11 PM
Pete you poor silly old fool, Good punters love big fields Stupid/Lazy Punters like some I could name may like small fields......but as the saying goes "God helps those who help themselves.....and Christ helps those that can't"......all I can say is Christ help Pete.....cos no one else can!

wily while I admire your tenacity almost as much as I admire Pete's.....but if Christ can't help Pete.....you are pushing the proverbial uphill trying to help him!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-16, 06:05 PM


5 races over 1400m. Field sizes of 11, 12,13,16 & 12


Races over 1400 m at both Flemington and Caulfield are notoriously unfair.

This is especially so for low-rated horses running in restricted low-grade races -- as on Saturday.

Acceptances for these races should be limited to 10 of which 2 would be emergencies -- 8 to start.

.......... in the normal course the no-hoper horses likely to run 10th will go to the front and hog the rails ....... and when they falter and fall back the runners there to win will be impeded.

The best chance for a favoured runner is to draw well and sit very handy to the turn and avoid the clutter.

Watch and see on Saturday!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-16, 09:06 PM

wily while I admire your tenacity almost as much as I admire Pete's.....but if Christ can't help Pete.....you are pushing the proverbial uphill trying to help him!

It’s good sport watching the idiot embarrass himself  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-16, 09:10 PM

5 races over 1400m. Field sizes of 11, 12,13,16 & 12


Races over 1400 m at both Flemington and Caulfield are notoriously unfair.


.......... in the normal course the no-hoper horses likely to run 10th will go to the front and hog the rails ....... and when they falter and fall back the runners there to win will be impeded.

The best chance for a favoured runner is to draw well and sit very handy to the turn and avoid the clutter.

Watch and see on Saturday!

You’ ve provided zero proof of this brain fart on the previous 300 times you’ve been requested to do so.

One day you may get it right  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-17, 12:12 AM



.............Saturday may be another 'one day' ........ the 'fours-wily' duo may like to vote on Friday!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-17, 05:04 AM


Will wily, fours & dave be voting early this weekend?

In an effort to entice these intrepids out of their boxes on Friday, I would suggest an all up lay on these favoured and well-drawn runners:

R4 No 3 & R8 No 9  .......... and probably R2 no 2

Conversely, if 9 does not win the 5th, I would be wanting to see the betting sheets.



 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-17, 07:41 AM
Plenty of pre post tipping here Peter. The proof is there. What about you actually answering a question put to you for once :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-18, 05:11 AM


Oh-No -- call for the betting sheets!


9. Begood Toya Mother (2)  Entitled to be favourite off the back of three outstanding wins but is he a $1.70 chance? For ours the answer is an emphatic NO! Three runs back he won a Bm64 at Warrnambool then followed it up in the same class at Cranbourne before a midweek Bm70 win at Sandown when he won by 6½ lengths. However while he was getting the runs on the board in lesser grade he’s up to Bm78 grade now and we know inside barriers at the 1400m can be tricky, and he’s drawn the two.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-18, 07:31 AM
Oh  Peter looking to be spoon fed again , if you don’t like the fave work  around it then aim for one of your big F4s :/

6, 11, 3,4, & 12 are darts to throw at the board or do some form and find your own    :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-May-18, 08:25 AM
Peter,

Rather than seeing the betting sheets after the race is run you need to look at the markets before they jump.

For instance I almost fell off my chair when 150/1 was offered for O'reilly's Crumpet as it was so wrong - AND WRONG is where your chance of profit lies.

If the price is right you cannot profit - not on win and place bets anyway.

Fours
ps Peter this means that EVERY HORSE IN THE FIELD IS A POTENTIAL TIP.

pps Unfortunately for you Peter properly assessing prices is above your IQ level - at least on what you demonstrate on this forum.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-18, 01:36 PM
3 of the 1400m races are run and Mair yet again looking stupid with his claims   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-May-18, 03:11 PM
SR7 Black On Gold is overs at $34.00

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-May-18, 03:24 PM
Peter,

Big field and the fav wins  --- YOU FAIL!

Big field and I tip a >30/1 horse as a value pick and it is in the finish for 4th and a lovely First Four payout. Again YOU FAIL!

Before the race - so again YOU FAIL!

Give it up.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-May-18, 03:40 PM
BR8 at $61.00 savvy coupe certainly overs on a good track
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-May-18, 03:55 PM
SR 8 gresham is value
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-May-18, 04:17 PM
BR9 Light Up The Room ready now and class NOT an issue so the 70/1 is great value

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-May-18, 04:26 PM
Last..... drown your sorrows with Inn Keeper in the Goodwod at 34/1
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-May-18, 04:58 PM
Now you know why I suggested start with 50c tickets rather than $500 win bets1

Try some Love magic at 150/1 in the last at Morphetville - this a class 75 and has won a class 84 .. and has a 40% win strike rate on a good track.

Fours
won a trial before the first up run and is rarley out of the first 4 places - have a look!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-23, 01:23 AM

Product quality control -- how low can you go?


The prospects for racing on Saturday are, again, simply appalling -- overcrowded fields of low-grade horses.

Brisbane aside, only a couple of runners rate above100 and most average less than 75  --  normal prize-money is still on the table, including lavish lumps for running 10th.

The saddest reflection of all this is the dynamic trio here looking for long-shots to find a bet.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-May-23, 03:34 AM
You are such an idiot Peter,

I agree that the use of the word idiot is rude and should be discouraged but Peter is different as he really is being an idiot.

Peter finding 1 or 2 long shots enables one to win $18,000 for a $24.00 outlay with the 2 favourites in a boxed first four ticket. Maybe only $6 would be required over at Unitab.

Accordingly what you decry is in fact what smart punters celebrate so you have it precisely wrong - yet don't learn this despite beig repeatedly shown to be wrong - and thus the moniker IDIOT.

Fours

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2019-May-23, 01:32 PM
Pete you really have no idea how successful punting works do you? in spite of your complete ignorance of punting etiquette you continually bleat false hoods.......you ask when will the racing industry ever learn.........while everyone else asks when will Silly old Pete ever learn?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-23, 04:15 PM
Dave,
Pete will only stop his brain farts when he scores a gig in the industry. That’s what he’s pushing for.

Now the good news for us who love the sport is that the relevant people have been notified about him and they are fully aware of how stupid he is.

  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-23, 05:03 PM


$10,000+ F4 looms at Flemington -- go get it boys.


Race 5 at Flemington on Saturday is a BM 78 for 3yro fillies over 1400 -- with a capacity field of 14 assured.

This race should not be run on the terms propsoed -- half the field do not merit the limit weight.

Punters.com.au is not expecting an easy task for punters:

XXXXXXX  may lead but it's a very tricky race to map. A few of the runners drawn wide have shown early toe in the past but their jockeys might be concerned about being caught without cover.

Pretty happy to shoulder arms to this race - nothing would really shock. For the sake of a tip I'll go with XXXXX  who was completely luckless in a very similar race here last start. She was very good when.........beaten 0.85L, at Sandown Hillside prior.

XXXXXX was impressive winning at Sandown last start but this race boasts far more depth. Barrier one looks somewhat problematic for a horse who generally needs space and time to go through her gears.

VERDICT: XXXXXX on top but happy to give this race a miss.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-23, 05:42 PM
Xxxxx
Pete doesn’t even have the integrity to leave to names in for us poor punters  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-23, 05:54 PM
By the way, due to me actually doing the form Pete, I’ve got one in my black book for that race.

It’s a tough race as there’s a lot of promising horses in it 8)
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-25, 02:24 PM
Oh well. Mair is wrong again.   :lol:

Go Fabric :clap2:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-25, 06:11 PM

Race 5 payout slashed when 7 scratched

Even the trainers are waking up by scratching runners drawn wide (14,16,18,19,20)

Race run predictably -- well-drawn leader wining, mainly no-hopers crowding the lead impeding others there to win.



[.......... not true, Harry, Larry and Mo:    Pete doesn’t even have the integrity to leave to names in for us poor punters]
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: pegasyber on 2019-May-25, 06:15 PM
  Can't seem to find a source of comparison dvidends over the three tabs and placings down to sixth if not all. I use to get it from Racing and sports, but cannot seem to access that anymore. Any Guidance would be appreciated.

    Not too much wrong with the integrity of Racing at The New Eagle Farm course, especially in Race 8 today.
 
  OOPS  racingandsports does give all placings so must have had the address slightly wrong, but there is no three TAB's dividend comparisons, OOPS again have now found comparisons on racenet.com.au.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2019-May-25, 11:28 PM
Pete if you tell us where you are being held captive just let us know,  we will call the home for you and they will send their nice young men in their clean white suits to pick you up and take you home.......whoever is holding you captive with a gun at your head must be really bad people....and the torture, it sounds horrible? Holding a gun at your head making you bet in all these races that you don't want to bet in.....a fate worse than death.....I can only think of one thing worse.....that is being us and listening to your prattle on........gimme the Gun and I will put us all out of our misery.....you first!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-26, 08:35 AM
XXXXXX was the bet of the day for the video form students
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-26, 05:36 PM

Prescience defined: the F4 dividends in the quadrella races across the four states

Product quality control -- how low can you go?

The prospects for racing on Saturday are, again, simply appalling -- overcrowded fields of low-grade horses.


........ and then there was this Sunday-hindsight: XXXXXX was the bet of the day for the video form students



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-26, 05:38 PM

........ and then there was this Sunday-hindsight: XXXXXX was the bet of the day for the video form students

Care to expand on that?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-26, 06:36 PM


....... dear harry-hindsight,

The hope of the forum is that you would care to expand on it -- it is no good telling us today that XXXXXX won yesterday.

[I trust you let Larry and Mo know before the race was run ....... honor among thieves and mouseketeers et al]

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-26, 08:07 PM
Peter, are you doubting that I backed xxxxx (as you labelled it)

In your attempt to slag the race why did you not name xxxxx?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-27, 10:44 AM
Peter, are you doubting that I backed xxxxx (as you labelled it)

In your attempt to slag the race why did you not name xxxxx?

Given Peter has been posting its clear he hasn’t the courage or integrity to discuss this   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-27, 11:06 AM


Algreba lesson -- find the value of X

XXXXXX was the bet of the day for the video form students

What did form students find?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-27, 11:14 AM

For the sake of a tip I'll go with XXXXX  who was completely luckless in a very similar race here last start. She was very good when.........beaten 0.85L, at Sandown Hillside prior.

By the way, due to me actually doing the form Pete, I’ve got one in my black book for that race.

It’s a tough race as there’s a lot of promising horses in it 8)


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-29, 07:53 PM
Peter, still waiting for your explanation
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-May-29, 08:01 PM


.. my mistake..... I guess you were tipping the XXXXX winner obscured in my initial post.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-May-29, 08:44 PM
Yes, and a simple study of the form found it.

Sadly all the scratchings came and $10 was no longer available  :sad:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jun-10, 08:49 PM

Kensington track kredibility krushed again?

After decades of trying to establish an inside 'all weather' track at Randwick, it seems RNSW has not succeeded in the quest.

Race outcomes at the 'new' Kensington track are consistent with the predictable consequences of running inflated fields of low grade horses.

Quadrella dividends today, of $7,500 and $5,000, are indicative of a very clear message to punters to stay well clear of betting on this suspect track -- as are F$ dividends circa $5,000 for half the races run.

RNSW has been showing some ability to 'best' RVL but when the Kensington track ranks with Victorian regional programs and outcomes it is well wide of the mark.

............races at the Kensington track should be restricted to no more than 8 starters of well qualified runners there to win!

Otherwise close it or ignore it.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jun-13, 07:17 PM
Kensington track kredibility krushed again?

After decades of trying to establish an inside 'all weather' track at Randwick, it seems RNSW has not succeeded in the quest.

Race outcomes at the 'new' Kensington track are consistent with the predictable consequences of running inflated fields of low grade horses.

Quadrella dividends today, of $7,500 and $5,000, are indicative of a very clear message to punters to stay well clear of betting on this suspect track -- as are F$ dividends circa $5,000 for half the races run.

RNSW has been showing some ability to 'best' RVL but when the Kensington track ranks with Victorian regional programs and outcomes it is well wide of the mark.

............races at the Kensington track should be restricted to no more than 8 starters of well qualified runners there to win!

Otherwise close it or ignore it.


Just caught up with idiots latest brain fart. Does he even watch the races that he spews his nonsense about   :lol:



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jun-13, 08:08 PM


Thanks for endorsing my message wily -- forget quality racing,  just keep kicking the tin at Kensington.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jun-13, 08:22 PM
Wonderful track,  only a fool wouldn’t bet there. Every horse gets their chance as the results prove
If you actually watch the races
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jun-13, 08:31 PM

-------------- enjoy the races -- watch the dividends!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jun-13, 08:49 PM
Oh I do Pete, I do.

Pity you don’t
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Aug-01, 09:21 PM


.............. will the lemmings bet on the Valley races on Saturday?

RVL has a problem with the credibility of the Valley of Tears track........... it is seasonally languishing with low-grade stock to run in the races..... yet, what does it do to present a fair go for the cant-help-it punters?

It should run small fields of horses entitled to carry the allocated weight -- instead it has inflated the low-grade fields in a way which will please only the fixed odds bookmakers and the syndicates milking TAB pools.

You tell me --  in forming your opinion, have regard to this 'Valley Preview' presented at punters.com.au

https://www.punters.com.au/news/moonee-valley-preview_182331/

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Aug-02, 08:38 AM
It was laughable when old Pete held up Monty as his go to man. Now he thinks some bloke called James Lamb is a worthwhile reference   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Aug-04, 06:35 PM


And so it came to pass ....... a Lamb foretold the slaughter  ........... yesterday and again today....... and into the future.

It is beyond comprehension that (mainly) Victorian punters put up with the consistent presentation of low-grade racing.

The dividends tell the story -- the bigger the dividends declared the lower the quality of the racing presented.



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Aug-11, 05:42 PM


A State of collective stupidity


Apparently, Victorian punters are beyond commonsense redemption -- unable to remember they were robbed last week, they put more money in easy reach of the robbers again this week -- and they were robbed again.

Week-in and week-out, Victorian punters are putting $2,000,000+ into VICTAB  quadrella pools and it is knocked off by the professional syndicates.

Their parochialism is unbounded  -- they do not realize that the quality of racing in NSW is far superior  -- and the converse that the poor-quality of Victorian racing puts it in the same class as the minor states.

The penny has still to drop that the RVL policy of serving up inflated fields of could-run-10th horses is not good for the punters.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-13, 01:44 PM


Strike a light -- no-go racing at Flemington

Check out the fields for Melbourne tomorrow -- as close to a no-bet day as it gets.

Capacity fields -- 3 over-turning at 1400 -- 2 up the dire strait -- one risky race with an odds-on favourite drawn wide.

Punters.com.au suggest 'no bet' in three of the races  -- that.s damning.

The racing offered in Sydney is not much better with big fields over the sprint races and little to wait for.

The administrators confuse 'spring interest' and 'stupid punters'  -- and take them for a ride.

...... wait for the outcomes..... go wide ......... bet your phone number

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Sep-13, 01:54 PM
Great days racing in both states. Those capable of doing to form will succeed whilst enjoying the great depth of talent on display

Only a fool with no idea, outside from self interest,  could be critical with what’s on offer :no1:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-13, 04:29 PM


Betfair says:

The Track

There has been a mixed history from recent similar meetings on 6/7, 18/5 and 16/2.

Straight races are always somewhat of a lottery, depending on how the track has been prepared specifically for this meeting. My forecast is they’ll race off the fence but inside the middle of the track, but it wouldn’t surprise if they went middle to outside.

In regards to circle races, the key thing to look out for is early signs that runners settling on the fence prior to the 600m are not doing as well as those settling 2W or even 3W.

Beyond that, whether horses 4+ off the straight are more prominent than those closer in? This was the pattern we saw on 18/5.

Any irrigation on Friday may help that pattern, so worth checking on Saturday morning.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Sep-14, 11:48 AM
Thank you Peter
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-14, 06:42 PM


Strike a light -- no-go racing at Flemington

Inflated fields in the 1400m and 1600 m races delivered an insult to punters -- as was predictable.

These F4s paid $250k (a 1400 for 14 3yros -- madness), $8.5k, $40k and $2k -- the quadrella paid $110k.

...... these races are supposed to be group and listed black-type excellence -- they are mockingly not.

RVL should not need to be told that this is a disgrace of their making -- they wont listen -- but tell them anyway  .
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Sep-14, 06:51 PM

Strike a light -- no-go racing at Flemington


No go racing at Flemington if you’re mug but then again, thank go for the mugs like Mair who can’t do the form  :clap2:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-15, 09:35 PM


Hong Kong racing devalued by inflated fields

Any aspirations HK-racing has for shifting betting turnover to the 'island state' will come to naught unless it culls fields of the clutter runners that impede a fair race.

As with RVL, the promise of laying 'land mines' on the course, randomly impeding any and all runners is a turn off -- and that adds to the problem of a couple of leading riders having the pick of the mounts and spoiling the prospects.

........ look at the HK results today ............ clear lanes with land mines =  a mess.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Sep-16, 07:14 AM
Oh Peter why are you so dishonest?

Only recently you were telling us how good the field sizes and racing was in HK.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-19, 10:54 PM


Any early thoughts

Caulfield Race 8 on Saturday -- 16 accepted -- over 1400m -- for 3yro fillies -- a listed race........
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-19, 11:02 PM


................... some 'thought' clues from last year

1400m3F-LR

Trifecta    4-5-10     $5,015.00

First Four    4-5-10-3   $63,699.90  Jackpot $20,867.31








Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-21, 08:16 PM


History repeats -- apparently

A race  that should not have been run: R8 at Caulfield today -- 15 3yro fillies over the notorious 1400m course.

The predictable 'rough' result was an indictment of RVL and the rubbish that parades as 'melbourne-metropolitan-racing'.

The F4 paid $90k and the quadrella $50k -- assisted by another 'rough' result in the first leg -- a $40k F4.

This is disgraceful -- and predictably so -- a defective product presented to punters as a 'fair bet'.

.............. the only unknown is the content of the knee-jerk dismissal of this truth by the RVL disciples.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Antitab# on 2019-Sep-22, 06:53 AM
Congratulations Pete I assume you got the trifecta and the First 4.

You are turning into  a real punter, you identified a pattern, you have an edge and now you can make a profit.

That’s how the big syndicates you are so clearly jealous of operate.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Sep-22, 08:11 AM
Nah Antiab, it’s far easier for Peter to sit n the sidelines and throw crap at people

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-22, 09:50 AM


What do the RVL devil-disciples make of their diminished wallets?

.............. the excrement is being thrown by RVL and punters betting modestly are covered in it.

The devils disciples need to consider their position.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-22, 08:18 PM


The devil's disciples are feeling the heat -- gone dry in the mouth -- hopefully getting the message about administrators corrupting the game.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-26, 10:55 PM


What do the devil's disciples think about their chances getting a fair go on Sunday, at the Heath?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-29, 08:40 PM

CALL THE COPS

....................  another disgraceful display of administrartive bungling today at Caulfield -- 80/1 and 100/1 'winners' , a $50k+ F4 and thew quadrellas paying $20k+ and $55k.

The big sux was not won.

Why would an inflated field of 3yro fillies be acceptedto run over the 1400 course?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Sep-30, 09:09 AM
Peter, I won’t have a chance to do the video form. Can you point me in the direction of a few runners who were inconvenienced by the inflated fields?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Gintara on 2019-Sep-30, 01:43 PM
CALL THE COPS

....................  another disgraceful display of administrartive bungling today at Caulfield -- 80/1 and 100/1 'winners' , a $50k+ F4 and thew quadrellas paying $20k+ and $55k.

Come on Pete, BHB wasn't that hard to find, even @ 100/1

No I didn't back it but I can honestly say I spent more time on that race focused on BHB than any other runner, I had Rawiller's words ringing in my ears 'wait to he gets ground as he felt great today' from the Rupert Clarke (Thanks Racenet)

To the point he was the only horse I went back and watched the replay multiple times. I ended up 'wait till he shows something'  :sad:  :bash: so unfortunately I was wrong, in hindsight it was the last 200 where Rawiller went a bit easy on him and Deprive put a 1/2 length on him.

The info was there - we just have to interrupt it right  :shy:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-30, 07:44 PM

Black-Pete readily relents but does not repent

So true -- a 9yro gelding returning to G1 form is to be applauded -- as  was the Diva winning over 1400 -- just smile.

Luke Nolan is similarly applauded -- he does it hard -- but I am about to stop applauding Linda Meech and Kathy O'Hara.

I do not mind losing in those events -- but I would like to know 'how they get one ready' -- and one can be got ready for a hit-and-run -- BHB will never win again -- should not have won yesterday (2nd was three-wide the whole way).

As for the devil's disciple wondering about evidence of unfairness -- commonsense would suggest restraint after a day when almost all punters were lamenting losses as the dividends screamed 'we wuzz robbed!' by inflated fields raced on unfair courses.

[............... and the bland stewards report on the last race begged for more -- a favourite and winner, drawn the outside in a 1400m at Caulfield, came from near last in a time of 1.26+  -- as if the others were waiting for it to run past them. Tell me more!]


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-30, 07:56 PM

............ the BHB story had a sequel............. he was readied!

Brad Rawiller (Black Heart Bart) pleaded guilty to a charge of careless riding under the provisions of AR131(a), the carelessness being that near the 350 metres, he permitted his mount to shift out when not sufficiently clear of Harlem (D. Dunn), causing that gelding to be steadied to avoid the heels of Black Heart Bart. Brad Rawiller had his licence to ride in races suspended for a period to commence at midnight 5 October 2019 and to expire midnight 12 October, a total of 8 race meetings (2 metropolitan, 6 provincial). In assessing penalty Stewards took into account his guilty plea, good record, the fact it was a Group 1 race and that the carelessness was in the low range.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Sep-30, 07:58 PM
).

As for the devil's disciple wondering about evidence of unfairness -- commonsense would suggest restraint after a day when almost all punters were lamenting losses as the dividends screamed 'we wuzz robbed!' by inflated fields raced on unfair courses.
!]


You’re the only one squealing, wrongly, about field size and as expected you couldn’t find any excuses for the beaten brigade that related to field size

Your dishonesty continues unabated  :clap2:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-05, 07:05 PM

.......... another day wrecked by malevolent administration

What should have been, and was in parts, a good days racing was again spoiled by running crowded fields of inexperienced 3 yro horses -- two $60k F4s and one paying 14k, as well as a 30k quadrella, were the predictable disgrace.

..... .....product quality management is beyond the len of RVL ......... but they sure know how to organize unfair races.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-07, 09:50 AM

Tarnishing the Silver  -- Silver Eagle gets a couple of extra starters


Racing NSW and the Australian Turf Club have worked on a way to increase of Saturday’s Silver Eagle to 14 runners from the 1300m start at Randwick on Saturday.

“We can start another two runners by moving the rail, so we have done that. We will get a full field and we might have to look at ways to get more four-year-olds starts on Saturday.”

The Silver Eagle, to be run for the first time in 2019, is something completely new in Australian racing: a race restricted only to four-year-olds. While Australian racing has many famous races for two and three-year-olds, this will be the first race only for four-year-olds. and run at set weight and penalty conditions.


This story will unfold during the week -- and the post-mortem will be held next Monday.




Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-07, 06:47 PM

Mizzy is a 110 benchmark nomination --  there is a cluster of 5 around BM 86.

.......... with a spread of BM weights around some 12 kg being unlikely in a SWP event, the probabilities are for an uneven race affected by clutter.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-07, 08:32 PM

One over the limit nominated for the Sliver Ealge

The inaugural Silver Eagle (1300m),.. $500,000 for four-year-olds on Saturday .. has ... 15 nominations.

.......................it is hardly a stampede to get a run ..... that suggests connections are expecting a couple of good ones to be dominant and their best outcome will be $5,000 for running 10th.

Spare my days!

This is not a model for a major national business to aspire to present as a wonderful  'considered innovation' ... it smacks of opportunism akin to that RVL nonsense in Autumn where the punters vote for the runners.


 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-08, 04:36 PM

Hi Ho-Ho Silver -- a weighty problem for Pauline to explain

The situation with the Sliver Egale is ever more tantalizing -- consider these allocated 'weights'.

Mizzy with the highest 110 benchmark rating gets 55.5 kg.

Buffalo River with the lowest benchmark 82 gets 56 kg.

Zousain rated at 104 gets the 57.5 kg topweight.

Fasika despite being benchmarked at 99 gets 54 kg, the lowest weight.

.................. it could not be as silly as this looks, could it?

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: sobig on 2019-Oct-08, 05:04 PM
It is a set weights and penalties therefore benchmark rating becomes meaningless.

Basic weight is 56kg entires and geldings and 54kg for mares, penalties group 3 winner 0.5kg, group 2 winner 1.5kg and group 1 winner 2.5kg
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-08, 06:54 PM

Thanks Sobig for the education

.............set weights and penalties ............ benchmark ratings become meaningless

While BM ratings may be ignored in allocating the weights for a SWP event, I am still thinking that they may be relevant to the prospects of horses that would be weighted very differently in a handicap.

I may be a dunce but it seems to me that Mizzy should start favourite while some others nominated should not really be running in the same race.

In terms of sound racing industry policy -- one question is about runners only there to pick up $5,000 for coming 10th ............but cluttering and impeding others before compounding and falling back through the field ....... probably making the race result unfair.

This will play out -- inflating fields with no-hopers, for turnover, corrupts the sport and the gambling.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Oct-08, 07:12 PM
Thanks Sobig for the education

.............set weights and penalties ............ benchmark ratings become meaningless

While BM ratings may be ignored in allocating the weights for a SWP event, I am still thinking that they may be relevant to the prospects of horses that would be weighted very differently in a handicap.

I may be a dunce but it seems to me that Mizzy should start favourite while some others nominated should not really be running in the same race.

In terms of sound racing industry policy -- one question is about runners only there to pick up $5,000 for coming 10th ............but cluttering and impeding others before compounding and falling back through the field ....... probably making the race result unfair.

This will play out -- inflating fields with no-hopers, for turnover, corrupts the sport and the gambling.



Well, you proved it yet again   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-08, 07:31 PM

Thank you for repeating my assessment of the Sliver Egale,

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Oct-08, 08:57 PM
And, once again thanks for highlighting what a dishonest dunce you are🍻
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-08, 10:04 PM


The Kensington track at Randwick is one to be wary of

........ the prospect of running another midweek meeting with over-full fields on this track does not inspire confidence.

Why would they do it?

-- a suspect track at the best of times is coupled with full-fields of low-grade horses --   a portent saying don't even look at the fields.

So don't.

......... the story will be told before nightfall tomorrow ... no one will wish they had had a bet.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-09, 07:12 PM

........... and, so it came to pass

Across the four legs of a quadrella paying some $11k, the total of the F4 dividends on te quadrella legs was some $25k.

The race outcomes continue to suggest it is beat to avoid running in, and betting on, races run on a track that has never made the grade.

The contributing factors to this damning historical record are complex -- in the end connections with a good horse will not nominate to run on this track and, the converse, those that do nominate are running for luck.

.............. do it without me until field sizes are constrained to ensure  a fair go.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-17, 05:57 AM


A glimmer of hope for a fair go -- limit field numbers

Slotholders cautious on expanding The Everest


A group of The Everest’s slotholders have warned the world’s richest turf race will ‘‘lose its glamour’’ if more horses are added to the event, insisting Sydney’s signature race will reach $20 million in prize money in coming years.

As interest intensifies from overseas and domestic parties wanting a slice of the pie, some of the concept’s initial backers want the field capped rather than expanding to 14 runners.

....................... there’s no sign of them agreeing to another two slotholders joining The Everest, despite Racing NSW being flooded with more than 20 applications for Damion Flower’s forfeited slot earlier this year.

‘‘We repay loyalty back in spades,’’ he said. ‘‘The original slotholders went on a journey with us and we wouldn’t change anything without their agreement. But also 12 is the right number from a wagering point of view.’’



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-22, 06:31 PM

20 is too many -- Caulfield Cup form suspect

“The first six placegetters officially finished within two lengths of each of other and there was a litany of hard luck stories from the beaten runners.

Some horses should not have been in the race. Some forced to race wide.

Many were variously 'held up' and  impeded -- especially at the 200 / 150 m mark. It was nor a fair race.

Read the stewards report -- and ask if the field was inflated.


Brimham Rocks (GB) Change of tactics: to be ridden more forward. Raced four wide without cover in the early stages.

Mr Quickie Change of tactics: intention to hold a midfield position. As the start was effected became unruly, jumped away awkwardly and lost ground. Settled towards the rear of the field. Held up from the 400m until shifting out approaching the 100m to gain clear running.

Hartnell (GB) Held up from the 400m until gaining clear running approaching the 100m.

Mirage Dancer (GB) Slow to begin. Brushed on the hindquarters near the 200m and became unbalanced.

Constantinople (IRE) Slow to begin. Held up from the 400m and near the 300m had to be checked when disappointed for a run between Sound (GER) and Vow and Declare.

Rostropovich (IRE) Caught wide without cover before rider Dwayne Dunn allowed the gelding to stride outside the leader near the 1400m. Checked to avoid heels near the 150m.

Finche (GB) Raced three wide without cover.

Red Verdon Tightened for room near the 200m.

Gold Mount (GB) Approaching the 300m until near the 150m was held up for clear running.

Vow and Declare Steadied near the 1800m when racing tight between Mr Quickie and Rostropovich (IRE). (D. Dunn) which shifted in slightly. Rider Dwayne Dunn was reprimanded. Near the 200m taken in off its course when tightened in onto Sound (GER).

Angel of Truth Checked to avoid heels near the 150m.

Sound (GER) Had to relinquish its position near the 1800m when tightened for room. Severely checked approaching the 200m when tightened for room.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: napes on 2019-Oct-24, 10:14 AM
Time for time out on this thread!!

Show of hands.  :thumbsup:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-27, 09:54 AM

The carnival is over in Sydney

......... inflated fields of low-grade horses in three races in Sydney reflected in F4 'dividends' of $90,000, 10,000 and 6, 000


----------  in Melbourne the tragedy of hit-and-run unknowns frustrating punters is just gathering pace.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Oct-30, 08:58 PM


Greed rules -- a big-weekend for the big-field boys!


I know we are addicted .... we will bet ........ but no one would back themselves to win on the day betting across the programs in Sydney or Melbourne.

As between the two, Sydney looks the better bet.

Black-type races should be fair contests to guide ratings and breeding-- they are not -- tears I cry lives on.

Inflated fields for straight races at Flemington confounds concepts of quality racing product.

The declaration that all the races in Melbourne are G1, G2 or G3 makes one wonder about the role of a classification committee that denies the Everest G1 status.

The wrecked legs of the quadrella races in both states are an insult to the 'most punters' that make them so popular.

..... racing, administered by no-mercy monopolists, is one business where the punter-customer is never-right, not even considered for an entitlement to a fair go.

............. go out for the day ........ tape the races ......... come home and enjoy the relief of not losing.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Oct-31, 06:56 AM
Peter, are you married?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2019-Oct-31, 02:35 PM
Wily Pete would lose and complain if he was playing Tiddlywinks.......Why would you wish marriage to Pete and another Human being?
This thread and other similar threads are the reason I don't come here too often,
It would be fair to assume that a Forum on punting and the Thoroughbred would find a lot of like minded lovers of our great sport....even allowing for a difference of opinion and some stimulating conversation........How wrong would you be??????
Arguing and beating the same drum on the same negative crap for years.......is not attractive....at least not to me.......and it always seems to be at the top of the hit parade.....please stop! and lets talk more about what unites us rather than what divides us
(Give it up Pete, if you haven't won by now surely you can see you have reached a stalemate and any continued point making is lost)
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: napes on 2019-Oct-31, 02:55 PM
Hear Hear  :clap2:

Surely the moderators can do something to move the dribbler on!

He is the cancer this forum is dying from!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Oct-31, 02:57 PM
Couldn't agree more folks
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2019-Oct-31, 05:07 PM
Leave the bloke alone, fellas.

Obsessive about things at times and gives plenty of cause for differences of opinion.

But doesn't  give reason for what you are asking.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2019-Nov-01, 01:02 AM
I certainly don't want Pete restrained or restricted from having an opinion........about anything.....but who doesn't know what Pete's opinion is on this subject?
I was just hoping Pete would see the light and know it is time to move on to something a little more positive and stimulating.........surely he has more than ONE opinion on more than One subject????
Let's be friends and talk racing, not politics!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-01, 02:48 AM
Leave the bloke alone, fellas.

Obsessive about things at times and gives plenty of cause for differences of opinion.

But doesn't  give reason for what you are asking.

  emthup
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2019-Nov-01, 10:59 PM
Pete doesn't have many opinions....He is bitter about the politics of racing, especially in Mexico, end of story, he keeps making the same point, it wouldn't even be so bad if he was right or even if he made any sense.....but he is totally wrong and makes no sense!
Every time I come here I feel like Punxsutawney Phil and it's Groundhog day all over again!!
You can't have a difference of Opinion with Pete......he doesn't acknowledge a different opinion.....EVER!!!
he isn't obsessive about "things" it is always the same thing, he has a Grudge and he is trying to drag everyone into his quagmire......but as I said, I don't want any restrictions put on him, what would be nice would be for Pete to see the light and realise that his point has been stated,
No need to reiterate it over and over and over and over and over and over is there??.....did I make my point?? or should I make it over and over and over and over and over and over again, Ad infinitum?? until you give in and agree??? I would rather just go somewhere else, I don't know how wily and others can continue to fight.....not like Pete listens, is it?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: bascoe on 2019-Nov-01, 11:24 PM
Pete has made his point - lets say noted - and it is his opinion and that is that. That great American runner had a great quote on opinions..seems appropriate here but you can reference that yourselves...

Lets move on from that and my only view is that if if is kept to one thread then fine, no one apart from Pete will keep feeding it.

Admin should only need to intervene if Pete infects other threads?

Bascoe
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Nov-14, 08:14 PM

SOWS EARS AND SILK PURSES -- be very wary of Newcastle racing on Saturday

For terrible and horrible TV coverage of racing, it would be hard to beat the tripe served up on 2KSKY's 528 this evening as a 90 minute prelude to the $1 m race, and supporting program, at Newcastle on Saturday.

This is even worse than the never-watch stuff on the RVL channel.

Stay well clear of this nonsense.

Grossly inflated fields all day  -- the smell of a buck cannot override the commonsense of presenting a fair program as a 'standalone' and building a reputation for a fair go.

....... wait for the post-mortem on Sunday ......... do not do it again!


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Nov-20, 08:49 PM

Stay away from this week's 'standalones' -- unfamiliar  form is not comparable

Most fields are inflated and the clutter makes life hard.

Last year the trifecta and F4 dividends on the Ballarat cup were 3.000 and 66,000 -- not a god look.

The 'gonged' poses a new question but the usual warning signs are there.

One profile race does not make a program -- it does provide a hoax-context for over-hyped  promotion from a compliant, captive media.

.............. do not get hyped ............ have a couple of bets ...... go to the movies .... watch the replays later.
 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Nov-21, 07:38 PM


Too many nominations 'accepted' to fill fields should not be

.............a quick perusal of the pre-post markets for Saturday clearly indicate that too many no-hopers are listed to run at both the grange and smelleratt........... administrative greed writ large and fair-racing abandoned.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Nov-21, 08:06 PM
Pete, what is a good number of runners to you.

There were a couple of posters including me commenting on the small fields on Wednesday at Rosehill. It was about 50
In total.

I would be interested in the number of runners for you and your reasons for that particular number.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Nov-22, 07:05 AM


Field sizes -- the number of runners .....and ...... reasons

The weekly parade of 'rough results' in Melbourne is the best evidence of unfair racing -- institutionalized administrative corruption of the races.

I would like most races to be limited to 10 starters from 12 acceptances. Races run from 'unfair starts' would be limited to 8 from 10 acceptances -- e.g. races run over 1400m at Caulfield and Flemington and sprint races at Rosehill as well as all highway-robbery races run in Sydney.

The principal concern is about ensuring 'fair racing' by limiting fields to runners with a credible chance of being placed. Quality control of the racing product presented is being mocked by paying generous appearance money for running 10th.

This is buck chasing.

If ASIC and the ACCC investigated field-size policies the findings would be damming in terms of 'deliberate product detriment' -- comparable to putting poison in boxes on the shelf labeled fit-to-eat.

One corollary is to not accept nominations of runners content to run 10th -- the stewards and administrators should  have a say on denying acceptances of Bradbury-runners with no credible chance.

In general I would not limit field sizes for major handicap races with eligibility and order-of-entry based on performance -- i.e. most G1 handicaps would have any number consistent with safe-racing.

That said the overall quality of the fields for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups has deteriorated to the point where 'fillers' cluttering up the fields make these races unfair.

Imagine what Frankie Dettori would say if asked about the Cup fields for horses there to win.

Beyond G1 handicaps the view is very clouded -- many black-type races run in Melbourne simply do not warrant that status -- inflated-field cluttering with 10th-place hopefuls wrecks those races.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-22, 11:14 AM
Well, thank god no one listens to you.

8 horse fields will see racing die
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: napes on 2019-Nov-22, 12:52 PM
[If ASIC and the ACCC investigated field-size policies the findings would be damming in terms of 'deliberate product detriment' -- comparable to putting poison in boxes on the shelf labeled fit-to-eat


Libelous ??

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2019-Nov-22, 02:40 PM
Pete you keep talking about huge exotic payouts like that is a bad thing....do you have any grasp of human nature at all??
Why do you think punters take exotic bets??........if they wanted to make it easier to win for a start they could just bet the fav to run a place....do you think they just want to make a 10% ROI?
These are people hoping and praying for a rough result.....that is the whole idea of trying to pick 4 winners in a row instead of one.....or the F4 in the correct order......BIG dividends!!
I never bet exotics and I never buy Lotto/Lottery tickets either.....but hey that is just the way I like to bet........
Why can't you just accept that you are greedy, a terrible judge, don't put in the effort and are a bad loser!!......and you can't have it both ways.....you can't take small risks and get large returns.....well most Punters can't.....
Me thinks all your warnings is really subliminal for your own edification.........trying to tell yourself to take your own advice.....and apparently it isn't working!
To quote William Shakespeare "The lady doth protest too much, methinks"
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-22, 08:00 PM
Dave, the only reason Pete bleats about F4s is it’s the only way he can attempt to justify his moronic thoughts about racing.....which we all know are driven by self interest

When fronted with facts about the real dividends on the most popular bets, (win bets) & the lack of interference in race fields, the only comfort he can grasp for is some large, obscure exotic divvy, which you point out, people actually want 💡

The blokes a clown as evidenced by the fact that no one comes to his support on his numerous & repetitive posts
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-22, 09:31 PM

Beyond G1 handicaps the view is very clouded -- many black-type races run in Melbourne simply do not warrant that status -- inflated-field cluttering with 10th-place hopefuls wrecks those races.

This is starting to get some attention.

Last weekend at Sandown there were these races:

Group 3 Sandown Cup $160,000
Group 3 Kevin Heffernan Stakes $160,000
Group 2 Sandown Guineas $250,000
Group 3 Summoned Stakes $160,000
Group 3 Eclipse Stakes $160,000

In the upcoming Brisbane Summer Carnival we will have

Listed Nudgee Stakes $200,000
Listed Gold Edition Plate $200,000
Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes $250,000
Group 3 BJ McLachlan Stakes $250,000
Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate $300,000

The Pattern Committee seems to be biased against Queensland and pro Victorian in some of it's decisions.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Nov-23, 09:35 PM

Rotted racing -- corrupted by administrators buck-chasing


Reflect on today.

........... a $50,000 quadrella at the mange........... $25,000 at smellerat, coupled with a F4 'paying' some $200,000+ along with other F4s paying 18k, 27k,and 31k.

Promotional talk about 'standalones' is over-hyped nonsense.

Do not forget it.

.......... those responsible for this tripe today should be held accountable...... asked to explain ... then sacked.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-24, 07:47 AM
1423533754
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Nov-24, 08:27 AM

Rotted racing -- corrupted by administrators buck-chasing


Reflect on today.

........... a $50,000 quadrella at the mange........... $25,000 at smellerat, coupled with a F4 'paying' some $200,000+ along with other F4s paying 18k, 27k,and 31k.

Promotional talk about 'standalones' is over-hyped nonsense.

Do not forget it.

.......... those responsible for this tripe today should be held accountable...... asked to explain ... then sacked.

When you mean sacked, who are you talking about? The racing bodies in the states concerned or the people at the TAB for encouraging big fields.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Nov-24, 10:46 AM



INFLATED FIELDS -- WINNERS AND LOSERS


We know that most -- almost all -- punters are 'losers' even after allowing for them to collectively pay a 15% 'entertainment tax': the effective deduction for most punters is now 100%. Others to lose from this regime are the connections and jockeys denied a fair race. The racing industry as a whole loses its reputation. Top trainers are walking away.

.......... now for the winners

The big winners are the corporates -- including TABs -- betting fixed odds -- rough results skin their customers already 'selected' as unlikely to win. The betting syndicate operators, subsidized with rebates, knock off most of the TABs' exotic pools, especially popular quadrellas almost guaranteed one 'rough leg'. The pre-post fixed-odds offered include an excessive % for the book.

......  the administrators are guilty

RVL and RNSW are responsible for the fair conduct of racing and the idea that they take their riding instructions from 'corporate bookmakers' is abhorrent  -- as is their apparent dedication to pandering to politicians demanding feather-bedding of rural racing not otherwise viable.

..........and ....  consumer protection and competition regulators are as derelict with racing as they are with banking

............ as for the future ....... have a look at the rest of the world where racing is now a relic of once-was.
 


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Nov-24, 02:38 PM


INFLATED FIELDS -- WINNERS AND LOSERS


We know that most -- almost all -- punters are 'losers' even after allowing for them to collectively pay a 15% 'entertainment tax': the effective deduction for most punters is now 100%. Others to lose from this regime are the connections and jockeys denied a fair race. The racing industry as a whole loses its reputation. Top trainers are walking away.

.......... now for the winners

The big winners are the corporates -- including TABs -- betting fixed odds -- rough results skin their customers already 'selected' as unlikely to win. The betting syndicate operators, subsidized with rebates, knock off most of the TABs' exotic pools, especially popular quadrellas almost guaranteed one 'rough leg'. The pre-post fixed-odds offered include an excessive % for the book.

......  the administrators are guilty

RVL and RNSW are responsible for the fair conduct of racing and the idea that they take their riding instructions from 'corporate bookmakers' is abhorrent  -- as is their apparent dedication to pandering to politicians demanding feather-bedding of rural racing not otherwise viable.

..........and ....  consumer protection and competition regulators are as derelict with racing as they are with banking

............ as for the future ....... have a look at the rest of the world where racing is now a relic of once-was.

Intrigued about your perspective on the role of RVL and Racing NSW in Racing. Please expand
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Nov-25, 09:24 AM



Monopolies are always bad for the customers

Government protected monopolies, especially, are an open invitation to the misuse of administrative 'discretion'.

De-facto an interstate – and international -- cartel among administrators and governments ensures the racing monopoly is, collectively, an ‘un-competitive’ rort.

There is no accountability -- racing that is not commercially viable should be not conducted. Allowing non-viable racing bears on which electorates get 'racing tax money'.

Racing-tax-money is politically special because it is ‘free’ -- outside the state budget process --  and 'washed' through state racing administrations, to which it flows as an 'entitlement' to a share of betting turnover. This is money laundering writ large -- corruption follows as a matter of course.

A 'too-much is not-enough' approach to running races is a waste of money.

The inevitable  next step is administrators and politicians scheming to get more ‘free’ racing-tax-money.

Alas the innovation – corporates betting fixed-odds – once benefiting punters has been turned against them.

When TABs started betting fixed-odds it was a short leap to institutionalize the corruption of the business – turn a 16% limit on the take-out into cop-the-lot, take 100% from most punters. This was done by the payment of substantial prize-money for running 10th and letting any bakers-horse get a run to clutter up any field – almost ensuring rough results.

Nationally, on any Saturday, the pool for the Melbourne quadrella alone runs to some $5 million. Administrators engineering just one rough leg delivers a bonanza for corporates and syndicates (getting rebates) and a wipe-out for loyal punters betting modestly and putting the money in the plunder-pool.

Eventually of course such contrived arrangements self destruct -- RVL in particular now seems determined to have Victoria follow Queensland and South Australia into oblivion so far as its racing industry goes.

RNSW is smarter – stealing the game but risking grave temptation.

The process is insidious as it unfolds to destroy any glimmer of product quality control.

......... others can play with suggestions that some of the corporate ‘bonanza’ is ‘returned’ to the industry in sponsorships and related schemes likely to be welcomed by administrators.

It is too late for me to change my attachment to the punt – others addicted to crosswords enjoy that mental challenge – now I simply bet small, enjoying the chase while knowing the only players still in the business with integrity are the horses and 99.9% of direct-participants.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-04, 06:41 PM


History tends  to repeat -- be wary of the Pakenham standalone on Saturday


 Forewarned is forearmed .............the results for last year speak for themselves:

                          https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2018-12-08/PAKENHAM/M/R/9/Win
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2019-Dec-04, 07:28 PM
Races 1 thru 6 on that day were won by 2x favourites, 2x second favourites, 2x third favourites - at an average price of $4.80.

The last three winners paid 10.50, 7.80 and 8.80 - hardly friendless in betting and impossible to find.


Stop lying.


FRO.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-05, 06:59 AM
Races 1 thru 6 on that day were won by 2x favourites, 2x second favourites, 2x third favourites - at an average price of $4.80.

The last three winners paid 10.50, 7.80 and 8.80 - hardly friendless in betting and impossible to find.


Stop lying.


FRO.


👏👏👏
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-05, 07:16 AM

................... speaking for themselves

............ the average  F4 dividend for the 8 quadrella races was approaching $10,000 and the quadrella paid $3k.

As I was saying, be wary of the Pakenham 'standalone' on Saturday  --- there are 13 acceptors in most races, some 'accepted' to run should not have been.

Runners with long-odds SPs -- some 200/1 -- should be scratched and not left in to clutter the fields.

A major problem with standlones is administrators going for broke -- full fields with too many Bradburys.

This is shortsighted -- they should ensure a fair go for the punters to build a reputation for 'a good day'.

......... be wary.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-06, 02:13 PM


punters.com.au is similarly wary of Pakenham

Racing heads to Pakenham for their stand-alone Cup meeting on Saturday and it shapes as a tough meeting for punters. Worth noting that some of the local trainers have set themselves for a big day with strong representation.


............... they say 'no bet' about three of the races.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-07, 06:51 AM
Well I’ve got 4 in my black book and I like another 3 so I’m confident of a win. Hoping for the quaddy as some I like are big prices

As usual, punters, have a bet when Mair says not to as he’s never been right
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-07, 07:33 PM


Races run -- I got it right

............  some others have the same regard for the 'truth'  that other loudmouth trumpeter.

Some respectful recognition would be appropriate.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: nemisis on 2019-Dec-07, 08:12 PM
Well done to the Kiwi connections of Etah James.......gutsy little staying daughter of Raise The Flag rewarded their perseverance with a big payday.
Always goes around at big odds and plenty seem to have missed her last run.......strange but good.

Was I on?.....no...... I'm off the punt......was on last start of course!.....and the start before that and so on.  :what:

Certainly a "smokie" in the last, Peter........not a local but 20's into 7's, so some leave the course happy.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-07, 08:33 PM


 VAINSTREAM   -- was my only winner at  Pakenham today  -- 5 @ 20/1 returned 105.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: nemisis on 2019-Dec-07, 08:36 PM

 VAINSTREAM   -- was my only winner at  Pakenham today  -- 5 @ 20/1 returned 105.
So it was you who crunched the price.  :lol:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2019-Dec-08, 06:25 AM
Etah James wins EASILY but at 70/1...…

Punters simply cannot do the form!

The horse was prepared and set for the race by the trainer and everything was easily on display regarding intent and what the horse was ideally suited for as a target race.

Come on people the horse had only won 3 out of 5 at that distance before this race > how many wins do you need before you see this?   Peter's claims of insiders and running them dead are all blown asunder with this one. His assumptions are simply wrong.

Fours
ps yes for those who did see it this comment is not for you UNLESS you saw it and dismissed it due to the price allowed by others - dunce cap for you! I've had my turns at wearing the cap too...
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-08, 06:54 AM

 VAINSTREAM   -- was my only winner at  Pakenham today  -- 5 @ 20/1 returned 105.


Races run -- I got it right

Some respectful recognition would be appropriate.



What, you were incapable of finding any of Neighbourhood, Snitzcraft, Midas Prince, yulong January or Eureka Street? So what recognition do you think you need?

Thankfully punters, clearly, ignored your advice and bet up rather than stay away
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-08, 07:33 AM
Etah James wins EASILY but at 70/1...…

Punters simply cannot do the form!

The horse was prepared and set for the race by the trainer and everything was easily on display regarding intent and what the horse was ideally suited for as a target race.

Come on people the horse had only won 3 out of 5 at that distance before this race > how many wins do you need before you see this?   Peter's claims of insiders and running them dead are all blown asunder with this one. His assumptions are simply wrong.

Fours
ps yes for those who did see it this comment is not for you UNLESS you saw it and dismissed it due to the price allowed by others - dunce cap for you! I've had my turns at wearing the cap too...

Price certainly isn’t a true indication of form or ability. I had a ripper of a day with some big priced collects.
The best being $31


Sadly I gave a lot back in Perth on my old mate Pike and some strategy flaws elsewhere   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Dec-08, 07:49 AM
Interesting day yesterday especially in Sydney. Torajoy cost my mate at least $50k on a $100 quaddie bet with a corporate.

It was 600% or similar as he bets on 2 selections each leg. He picks fav and another. He had Outrageous and Strome in the last.

I prefer to lose prior to the last leg.   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-08, 08:09 AM


Not a good day -- not a good time of the year

Declared 'dividends' tell the story -- a sad story across the east-coast board.

The 6 quadrellas on the east-coast yesterday paid some $15,000 on average -- ordinary punters cannot do it.

It is a truly festive season for the fixed-odds corporates and the syndicates  -- aided and abetted by administrators swapping bucks for integrity in the product quality.

The Villiers meeting on Saturday may be better -- but RVL will spoil a day of low grade racing at Flemington by inflating the fields with 10th-place hopefuls.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-08, 08:23 AM
Interesting day yesterday especially in Sydney. Torajoy cost my mate at least $50k on a $100 quaddie bet with a corporate.

It was 600% or similar as he bets on 2 selections each leg. He picks fav and another. He had Outrageous and Strome in the last.

I prefer to lose prior to the last leg.   :lol:


Sadly I had outrageous going for big bucks as well, especially after backing the Party Girl at the crazy odds they offered.

Apparently it bled which explains the shocking run
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-08, 01:55 PM


An independent observer covers the events in Sydney

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/black-day-for-favourites-but-war-of-the-roses-provided-colour-20191208-p53hxq.html
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2019-Dec-08, 02:26 PM

Not a good day -- not a good time of the year

Declared 'dividends' tell the story -- a sad story across the east-coast board.

The 6 quadrellas on the east-coast yesterday paid some $15,000 on average -- ordinary punters cannot do it.



My God you are a sick/vile human.

Knowing your previous form and willingness to lie by using fake/rubbery numbers, I decided to try and 'reverse-engineer' your latest effort - "six East-coast Quaddies".

I settled on them being Pakenham, Rosehill, Newcastle, Gold Coast, Toowoomba and Doomben., Happy to be corrected if they're not your six, although I think I'm on the right track as their average Quaddie payout was $13,404 - in the ballpark for your quotes/assertions but ALWAYS on the under-stated side of your reality.

What you fail to mention (no doubt hoping people will just gloss over your lies and take you at face value) is that 50% of your dataset, half of your dataset, three of your six listed Quaddies paid the following:

Newcastle - $209.50
Gold Coast - $280.30
Toowoomba - $72.90

How can you look at yourself in the mirror/keep a straight face/not have an undiagnosed brain injury quoting your $15k number (over-stated) when 72.90, 209.50, 280.30 dividends make up HALF of your dataset.


Just FRO.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-08, 05:38 PM

Newcastle - $138
Gold Coast - $395
Toowoomba - $123



Above are the early quaddies at this venues  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-08, 08:53 PM


A barking dog feeds me to the lines

The only racing of any relevance  in Australia allows the forming of a difference of opinion  about the outcome based on known form.

The only racing run in Australia that remains relevant on this score is run in Sydney on Saturdays.

[RVL has decided to abandon any concept of
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: napes on 2019-Dec-09, 11:42 AM
He's passed out mid-dribble   :lol:   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-09, 11:50 AM
The idiot even contradicts himself with every post

No wonder his lying arse was sacked from having any involvement in the industry   :lol:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-09, 07:10 PM



................ the end of the sentence was left for the wily one to complete before he was sent to his kennel for the night
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-13, 11:55 AM


Black-Saturday arrives tomorrow


Fixed-odds bookmakers will be funding a good Christmas from tomorrows races.

We knew that the racing at Flemington tomorrow would probably be beyond the reach of most punters -- and that is confirmed by the stuff served up -- 4 sprints and 2 over 1400 and inflated fields all day have the warning bell clanging -- even punters.com is saying 'no bet' in four of the races.

Sydney is equally bereft of sensible betting opportunities with inflated low grade fields --  a special problem is that the form from the recent 'million dollar' standalones has no proper foundation and the hype will mislead.

........... the idea that Quackerjack will win is illustrative.......and 16 two yros running for $500k over 1000m is  a prelude to a punting disaster ............be very wary.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-13, 05:28 PM
Hey Pete  have you bothered to do any form for tomorrow or have you just accepted the thoughts of some commercial organization who told you not to?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-13, 07:57 PM


---- settle on Sunday -- why go the early crow? -- you could, possibly, have looked good
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-13, 08:21 PM
So the answer is No, you haven’t done the form  :lol:

You’re as weak as piss  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-14, 06:17 PM


Sydney is equally bereft of sensible betting opportunities with inflated low grade fields --  a special problem is that the form from the recent 'million dollar' standalones has no proper foundation and the hype will mislead.

........... the idea that Quackerjack will win is illustrative........


Well you are a goose. Mair wrong again but seeing as you admitted to doin NO form that’s what you get  :lol:   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-14, 08:53 PM


Black-Saturday arrives tomorrow


Fixed-odds bookmakers will be funding a good Christmas from tomorrows races.

We knew that the racing at Flemington tomorrow would probably be beyond the reach of most punters -- and that is confirmed by the stuff served up -- 4 sprints and 2 over 1400 and inflated fields all day have the warning bell clanging -- even punters.com is saying 'no bet' in four of the races.



Oh, and the quaddy at Flemington only paid a paltry $800 and the extra $575

Clearly punters ignored the moronic advice from Mair and they clean up🥳

will The self promoting fool ever get it right  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Dec-14, 09:23 PM


Oh, and the quaddy at Flemington only paid a paltry $800 and the extra $575

Clearly punters ignored the moronic advice from Mair and they clean up🥳

will The self promoting fool ever get it right   :lol:

The biggest “normal” quaddie was $6.6k in Morphetville. It seemed to be huge overs. In Sydney with the big fields, it only paid $500.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-15, 06:00 AM


No one should complain when the racing day turns out well -- a not-often experience.

To settle the nerves ponder the $30,000 and $6,000 quadrellas at the Vale of Tears and Canterbury on Friday.

.......... and Quackerjack settled the question of 'how good was that?'
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-15, 10:43 AM
I’m not sure if your sheer arrogance or stupidity let you raise the quacker again. Ironically  You look like a goose

You got it wrong as you did in Melbourne

Just admit it :tin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-17, 09:55 PM

Ah dinnae ken the Kensington track

Tomorrows fields are hardly 'inflated' perhaps but the jury must be still out on whether the Kensington track offers a sound basis for a fair bet.

My general perception is that the race outcomes are more than a bit random.

.............. this may reflect connections of good horses side stepping this track, leaving only confused form about the runners turning up.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-18, 06:52 AM
Well Mair is wrong again. Not only does he do NO form he’s does NO research.. :tin:

The last 16 races at the Kenso has seen 13 favoured runners win.

The track is a punters delight :no1:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-18, 07:19 AM
Added to that I’ve got 5 in my black book and 3 of them are over $20.

Fill up the Xmas stocking Pete 8-)
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ianb on 2019-Dec-18, 07:34 AM
 I'm not sure of Wily's punters delight but statistically Peter there doesn't seem too much for you to worry about the Kensington Track.

 It appears to have reopened on the 18/04/18 and since then there has been 194 races with is a winning percentage of favourites of 32%. The overall place percentage of  62% is slightly lower than normal. However it still roughly fits into what has occurred over the more than 50 years I have been betting on racing in Australia of 1 in 3 favourites win and 1 in 3 favourites run unplaced.



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-18, 11:14 AM


That data on the Kensington percentages is persuasive -- thanks.

My misgivings are not well documented and I would be fishing for excuses to support anecdotal impressions.

I will keep a sharper eye out.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-18, 11:44 AM

A MINISTERIAL PLEA FOR A RACING CARTEL

The minister for racing in Victoria has plans for a national racing cartel which would preclude state racing administrators competing with one another -- astonishing stuff.

The minister and all others with current irresponsibilities for racing in Victoria would do well to get their house in order rather than pleading for its winning competitors to continue to let racing in Victoria be so badly administered.


https://www.racenet.com.au/news/victorian-racing-minister--we-spend-too-much-time-thinking-about-v-landys-20191218




Victorian racing minister: 'We spend too much time thinking about V'landys'

“Racing needs to recognise that it is in a fight for relevance, it’s in a fight for support amongst a new generation ..............

“In that environment, you need a national body – not to do everything – but some of the big issues,......, the scheduling of the program in a way that maximises the product, ......., you need a genuine national body with some authority.

“The whole point of having a national body is that sometimes in the interest of the sport nationally they are going to do things that you might not like as a state body.”




Monopolies are always bad for the customers

Government protected monopolies, especially, are an open invitation to the misuse of administrative 'discretion'.

De-facto an interstate – and international -- cartel among administrators and governments ensures the racing monopoly is, collectively, an ‘un-competitive’ rort.

There is no accountability -- racing that is not commercially viable should be not conducted. Allowing non-viable racing bears on which electorates get 'racing tax money'.

Racing-tax-money is politically special because it is ‘free’ -- outside the state budget process --  and 'washed' through state racing administrations, to which it flows as an 'entitlement' to a share of betting turnover. This is money laundering writ large -- corruption follows as a matter of course.

A 'too-much is not-enough' approach to running races is a waste of money.

The inevitable  next step is administrators and politicians scheming to get more ‘free’ racing-tax-money.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-18, 02:55 PM

That data on the Kensington percentages is persuasive -- thanks.

My misgivings are not well documented and I would be fishing for excuses to support anecdotal impressions.

I will keep a sharper eye out.

How’s that sharp eye going Pete   :lol:

You’ve been slapped in the face with a dead fish after the first 3 races so I’d imagine your not in a good way  :lol:   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-18, 03:24 PM
And it’s getting worse for you Pete. Your bullshit theory about supposed inflated fields denying runners every chance got exposed for sheer stupidity
7 horse field saw let it Pour badly h3ld up and a tragedy beaten

7 horse field you clown.....next you’ll be call for two horse fields🤡

And I bet you still couldn’t find the winner
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-18, 05:46 PM


Kensington passed the Monty test

Monty's top5 selections are the most reliable test of the relevance of the form guide and the fair running of the races.

All good today.

Monty had  4 of the 7 'on top, ,and the other 3 winners were his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th selections.

As well he had 3 of the first 4 in his 'top5" in all but one race -- oneF4 and two trifectas and both quadrellas.

.......... how good is that as scottnofriends might say!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-18, 08:14 PM

Who would write-off Monty before his selections are published?


I wont but I am inclined to take the risk on Saturday.

Buckle up his top 3 in both quadrellas in both states and wait to watch the replays --- otherwise go shopping, or go to the movies -- or do anything other than lament wasting the afternoon watching the rubbish racing presented in both states.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-18, 09:15 PM
So you got it wrong today and instead of having the balls to say so we get the monty smother  :lol:

You weakness of character never cease to amaze  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-20, 09:10 AM


It is pleasing to be wrong about finding flaws in the racing presented


Does not happen often enough.

RNSW does not think much of the Flemington program tomorrow -- the SMH guide it subsidizes in NSW, shows the fields but no form for Melbourne.

Tomorrow will test the role of inflated fields at Flemington -- on form there are only a couple of good chances in most races and most fields are inflated.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-20, 06:07 PM


Tomorrow will test the role of inflated fields at Flemington -- on form there are only a couple of good chances in most races and most fields are inflated.

On form?

Good to see you’re now doing form :thumbsup:
What are your couple of good things?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-22, 05:32 PM
We all know Mair is wrong but when he’s totally and utterly exposed he goes silent  :lol:

One again his claims were disproven on every level.

Quaddy only paid $830

Favoured runners dominated in the supposed “inflated fields”

Ironically the small fields of 10 runners, which Mair demands in his warped logic, were seen to cause traffic issues.

 Next he’ll want  3 horse fields.....that’ll see racing survive but he may actually find a winner  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Dec-27, 07:39 PM

Bookmakers enjoy the festive season

.............even the news-corpse media, that owns this media site, cannot bring itself to accept the nonsense on offer at the vale-of-tears tomorrow.

https://www.punters.com.au/news/moonee-valley-preview_186780/

The idea that anyone would be 'on-course' at the Vale tomorrow beggars belief.

It is similarly incomprehensible that RVL would be spending some $1 million+ of punters money on such low-grade races that should not be run any where near town.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Dec-29, 08:49 AM
Wrong again Mair  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Thought Santa might have given you a brain for Christmas   :lol:

Early quaddie $82........punters clearly ignored your brain fart and bookies went home feeling sick

5 favourites saluted from what I saw and the roughest winner was only on the 5th line if betting which resulted in a still skinny quaddy of 2.4k
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-02, 08:26 PM


There is no point complaining

.......... at this time of the year, RVL, among others, is milking the market for punters with nothing else to do.

The fault lies with those silly enough to bet.

For instance -- have a go at races 5,6&7 at Caulfield on Saturday -- BM 70, 64 and 78  -- all over the notoriously unfair 1400m  -- chocka-block fields ... 

......... what do you think is going to happen in these races ..... a fair go for all ......... or not.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-Jan-02, 09:29 PM
Haven't been looking at this forum as often as I was did . Notice the one with the below par IQ is still babbling on !
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-03, 01:52 PM

Saturday at Caulfield will be a ripper

............three over 1400 with inflated fields ............one over 1600 also inflated with no-hopers before closing with a BM70 over 2000 with a clear favourite but too many others to be confident.

.....the BSUX will not be won and the quaddie will pay stacks for phone-number selections.

The corporates and syndicates will be counting on having a big day at the expense of the faithful.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Jan-03, 02:14 PM
Time for a Royal Commission for the faithful. :chin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-03, 06:31 PM
Saturday at Caulfield will be a ripper

................one over 1600 also inflated with no-hopers


Okay Pete, who do you declare to be the no hopers ?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Jan-03, 07:25 PM

Okay Pete, who do you declare to be the no hopers ?

I think PM will inform you after the last but I stand to be corrected.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jan-03, 07:33 PM
A new year and a gift for some....

My most profitable races are those with 12 or more races.

But then I do not rely upon tips from anyone but do my own 'relative' form.

Fours
ps the difference to Peter is stark
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: bascoe on 2020-Jan-03, 08:14 PM
Angle park dogs have been running 6 dog races for a good while Pete - try there


Sent from my iPhone using Racehorse Talk (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=90061)
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-04, 06:53 AM
I think PM will inform you after the last but I stand to be corrected.

Oh you will be correct.
It’s a reflection of his dishonest character
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-04, 01:13 PM
Early in the meeting but Mair looks like being an idiot again  :lol:

Winners odds
11-2
7-2
7-2
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-04, 07:07 PM


As predicted RVL presented rubbish at Caulfield

                                                            ....  a dog is eating crow.

Quadrella punters, winning $50,000, dialed 18,11,13,7 and any other number for success.

The F4s on races 6,7&8 paid $40,000, $10,000 and $18,000.

Those that dialed the prefix 13-6 won the BIGSUX ............ said to be paying $160,000,  a poor return when the 4-5 double paid $22 and the SUX should have paid $1,000,000+.

How can anyone defend this nonsense served up week in and week out?




Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jan-04, 07:24 PM
Peter,

I got 2 of those first fours and really should have got 3 but for an interruption. So the racing was lovely.

But Peter chances are I do a whole lot more work than you - rather than rely on some one else's tips as you do.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-04, 08:21 PM


Thanks 'fours' -- do you live in a kennel with "wily'?

                         ............. another 'winner' when all the rest lose!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-04, 08:39 PM
No Mair. I lost on the quaddy today. Got the last 3 legs but like you I spent no time doing the form and let saucy jack under my guard.
Major mistake.

Are you aware of its first up form?

Wit( 7 of the 9 runners favoured in betting
, punters won again. Those who did the best form clean up
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2020-Jan-04, 08:45 PM
Pete you really have no freakin' idea of how punters think, do you?
If the favs always won the 4 legs of the Quadrella they would be a very unattractive bet, people don't buy lottery/lotto tickets hoping to win $20......and they don't take exotic bets hoping the favs win so they can get their money back, or even worse, they get the Quadrella and Still LOSE!
They bet "against the odds" hoping to win a "Motza".....that is what keeps the pools up.......
Wake up to yourself and stop acting like a petulant child
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-04, 09:11 PM


.................... Dave -- it is getting crowded in the kennel

You guys need to share selections -- between the three of you you could be rich!

....... wily has incredible ability and may take more than a third.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-05, 06:51 PM


Good advice:  'fours'  about 'first fours'....... I qualify


I will pay more attention to 50% place-getters starting at long odds.

F4s, my most common bet --  rarely successful -- are most likely to win when there is a smallish field with clear favourites and the rest of the field goes in for fourth.

Alas, big F4 (and quadrella) dividends occur mainly when a favourite does not win and a race is corrupted by an inflated field.

Some races -- e.g. over 1400 at Caulfield and Flemington -- are notoriously unfair with an inflated field and the favourites cannot get to the front.

Most TAB punters assume the race will be 'fair' and exclude 'no-hopers' starting at more than 10/1.

I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.

It is syndicates that cover the field and plunder the pools with rough results.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jan-05, 07:33 PM
Peter,

You remain an idiot!

I have given examples of just how 12 to 16 combos can get 100% of a first four paying more than 20 grand.

Accordingly your assumption that only syndicates can do it - earns you the idiot tag.

Pay attention.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-05, 09:21 PM

Fours,

The only evidence relevant is published predictions of F4 outcomes before a race is run.

A standout to win, from the field for 2nd and 3rd, and one for 4th is an expensive/small% bet.

I will keep an eye on it but you may also like to record the successes on the forum.

Syndicates would use more sophisticated, proven models than such rules of thumb.

 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jan-05, 10:26 PM
Peter,

I have already given, before the race, successful first four approaches involving few combinations.

Indeed I showed that a combination of place and first four bets can improve both your strike rate AND your overall returns compared to just a plain place bet. Dubbledee responded with fluke rather than admit I was right so I am not inclined to repeat ad infinitum.

It's not my fault you are a slow learner or in fact are totally incapable of learning.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2020-Jan-05, 10:32 PM
Pete I am not greedy or stupid, I never take exotic bets, I pick the races I want to bet in and size of field is largely irrelevant(kinda like what you think) I have never in my life bought a Lottery/Lotto ticket and Never play pokies as I have no control over the outcome.....but again cos I am not an idiot (like you Pete)...I understand why some punters go that way.....they are looking for a big dividend.......if Lotto prize was $50 they wouldn't sell many tickets, would they?
Why don't you put your brain in gear before you accelerate with your mouth on things you don't understand
Of course you are right about the Quadrella races being to hardest races to pick the winner of.....that is what makes them great betting races, doing the extra yards (hard work) pays off......
Instead of trying to educate Punters on what they shouldn't do.....Why not start classes on how to win at Punting??
You could educate Punters on what they should do......now that would make for interesting reading and go someway to improving your credibility, I know I would be a follower......I am not talking about a tipping service......no one would expect you to give away the fish you caught......teach us all how to fish?.......You do know how to bait a hook don't you?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-06, 07:24 AM
He's been trying to bait a hook for years on here but those in the industry, whose attention he is trying to catch, can smell a rotten prawn from a mile away :confused1:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-06, 10:01 AM


The proof of the pudding

...................will be revealed by keeping track of the performance of the 50% place-getters starting at long odds.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Jan-06, 04:24 PM

The proof of the pudding

...................will be revealed by keeping track of the performance of the 50% place-getters starting at long odds.

What is your definition of long odds?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-08, 09:17 PM


Mid-week today

... I do not believe most punters would be pleased if they had a quadrella bet on the races in Sydney or Melbourne today.

(that does not include the kennel-club-kids who would have creamed it as usual -- scouts honour!)
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-10, 11:36 AM


Saturday is a quandry

In Melbourne, modest field sizes promise a fairer go -- bar the BM70 last race over 1100 with 16 starters.

Sydney has some fair races but the quadrella looks crowded -- and the highway-robbery spoils the earlyQ.

Making-Millions-with-Magic at the Gold Coast is the hard question -- massive fields and massive prize-money are a formula for the visiting carpet-baggers to steal the day -- the top players are on there wanting to win.

The difficulty of qualifying to get a start is coupled with a limited number in the total pool  -- in the wash up the best of the qualifiers are typically well placed to beat the also-dids

... avoid the first two races - be mindful a $1m race last year, over 1200, had a rough-result -- $60k F4.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-10, 01:26 PM
- be mindful a $1m race last year, over 1200, had a rough-result -- $60k F4.

Cool, hope I can snare it. Was t far off last year from memory

Let’s hope for an even bigger divvy
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-10, 04:10 PM


... .............dig the hole deeper
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-10, 04:13 PM

... .............dig the hole deeper

Why, to stick your fat head it?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-10, 07:36 PM


..............no room for me ............... that hole is getting crowded as the kennel club members file in.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-12, 08:37 AM
Well it’s time for this thread to be shut down after yesterday’s racing
Mair claims inflated fields lead to high dividends

Well, Mair got a 10 horse field race 3 and a F4 divvy of $54,000 :bulb:

Another 10 horse field in race 8 saw a F4 of 19k  :lol:
Then we have $30 outsiders lobbing in 10 horse fields  :lol:

Inflated field sizes =  fairer outcomes for punters???       

Myth busted   :lol:


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-13, 07:25 PM


... sit boy ....... stop barking .... back in the kennel.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-13, 08:21 PM

Well it’s time for this thread to be shut down after yesterday’s racing
Mair claims inflated fields lead to high dividends

Well, Mair got a 10 horse field race 3 and a F4 divvy of $54,000 :bulb:

Another 10 horse field in race 8 saw a F4 of 19k  :lol:
Then we have $30 outsiders lobbing in 10 horse fields  :lol:

Inflated field sizes =  fairer outcomes for punters???       

Myth busted   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Jan-18, 11:29 AM
Pete, I came across this article from you about racing more than a decade ago. It was an interesting read.

Peter Mair to be axed as racing advocate by Dick Face
Australia's leading consumer racing advocate Peter Mair is being axed by a special act of Parliament brought on by Racing Minister Dick Face.
Crikey Jul 07, 2002

Australia’s leading consumer racing advocate Peter Mair is being axed by a special act of Parliament brought on by Racing Minister Dick Face.

As the nominated consumer representative for racing in NSW, my first two-year term concludes at the end of September this year. I would normally be eligible to serve another two terms, each of two-years.

I have been critical of the administration of racing in NSW — and in Australia more generally. This challenge to my role is not unexpected — it is nonetheless notable that my contribution will be recognised in a special Act of Parliament.
In an industry where people commonly hold key positions for ‘life’, it is unusual that the consumer representative alone would, by special Act of Parliament, be limited to a single term of two years.
“There’s nothing wrong with racing in NSW”
This recent report on the racing industry is the second within six months where the Parliament and the community have been told that no substantial changes are required to either the administration of racing in NSW or to the regulations governing betting on racing in NSW.
This ‘no problems’ assessment is surprising when it is otherwise evident that racing in NSW is going backwards. The refusal of the NSW Government to bring its racing legislation into line with national competition policy will probably be criticised later this year by National Competition Council. NSW tax payers may be ‘fined’ as a consequence, with associated distributions of Commonwealth funding being withheld for ‘non-compliance’.
There is much that is wrong with the administration of racing in NSW. Silencing a critic is not the answer.

Racing’s regulators beyond the law?
The report recently presented to the NSW Parliament was a scheduled five-year review of the Thoroughbred Racing Board (TRB) Act.
There were five recommendations made. The overriding recommendation, contrary to the weight of submissions, is that the existing structure and composition of the TRB be retained. The relevant minister was reported in the press to have said that ‘no change was necessary’, on the day following the closing date for submissions. This was not surprising — apparently ‘nothing’ ever needs changing in the going-backwards NSW racing industry. Two of the other four recommendations concern minor administrative amendments affecting licensed persons.
That leaves two recommendations — both of which affect the racing industry participants body (RIPAC) on which the consumer representative sits. One of these, as mentioned, would displace the incumbent consumer representative. The other one — requiring the TRB to respect RIPAC — warrants a little background.
RIPAC is established as a statutory body. The existing TRB Act provides for the TRB to involve RIPAC in an advisory capacity when setting industry policy and to this end, requires that two conjoint meetings be held each year between the TRB and RIPAC. In the event, the TRB unilaterally chose to disregard RIPAC, including not meeting as required. The recommendation now put would see amendments to the legislation elaborating the consultation requirements — RIPAC submissions to be tabled at TRB meetings; TRB to respond in reasonable time and minutes of conjoint meetings to be provided to RIPAC.
One might reasonably wonder if the NSW Parliament would sensibly be asked to waste time considering such unnecessary legislative amendments as these are. One might reasonably hope that someone in the NSW Parliament might ask why the chairman and the chief executive of TRB felt at liberty to ignore legislative requirements imposed on them. Such disregard for the law would seem to be a more interesting question than considering amendments elaborating on what an already clear law actually meant.
Both the relevant, retiring, minister and staff of his Department were well aware of the disregard shown for the legislation, and RIPAC, by the TRB. It is not known if the Auditor General noted the failure to comply.

Racing on the wrong track
The Australian racing industry is on the wrong track — everyone agrees that there is far too much racing.
I have yet to meet a regular punter who is not appalled by the consequences of ‘too-much’ racing. Customers are shortchanged when too much racing being crammed onto the broadcast media spoils the racing entertainment they pay for. The tax-paying public is shortchanged because public funds allocated as subsidies to racing are being wasted on the too-much quantity of racing that is unwanted and denies the quality racing entertainment that customers prefer. Australia as a whole is shortchanged because a national ‘icon’ industry is in disarray: the business of conducting export quality racing in the Asia-Pacific region that once belonged to Australia has been given away. The best of Australian racing resources now prefer to work in other countries.
These points have been made repeatedly over the past two years: not only have they been ignored, it has now been decided by the Minister for Racing (going backwards) that such views are not to be heard.

What’s wrong with the administration of racing?
The racing industry is still administered much as it was in the 19th-century. The 20th-century simply came and went leaving the administration of racing untouched. Racing is a major national industry that was not rationalised in the 80s and 90s when the rest of the economy was transformed. Rationalisation is a painful process as surplus resources are retrenched — unfortunately with rationalisation denied to the racing industry, the abiding alternative is continuing irrationality. Industries that do not race on the pace eventually fail.
There is no commercial discipline in the administration of the racing industry. Race clubs — again, far ‘too many’ race clubs — are awarded public funding without proper accountability for the quality of the racing entertainment they provide. These days one would not even expect to find in former Socialist republics, major State businesses being run the way the racing industry still is in Australia. Without commercial disciplines, there is no proper accountability for public funding running into hundreds of millions of dollars that is given to the racing industry in Australia for (mis)allocation by ‘administrators’ using unchanging ‘administrative criteria’.

Cut back the public funds!
There have been pointed ‘customer’ complaints — including about too much racing and the general disregard of off-course TAB customers. The ‘interests of racing’ politely tolerated such customer complaints prior to them being politely dismissed. What will not be tolerated apparently is any suggestion to cut back public funding of the too-much low-quality racing now being produced.
Only very reluctantly and tentatively did the ‘interests of racing’ agree to recognise as ‘participants’ the betting customers that contribute the TAB betting pools from which the racing industry is granted a share of the gross turnover. This ‘recognition’ does not, however, extend to respect for the customers.
Needless to say, the racing industry ‘choked’ on the suggestion that the broader tax-paying community be recognised as ‘participants’ in the racing industry. The ‘interests of racing’ called for the ‘tongue tie’ — these words were not to be spoken. In my defence, these words were spoken because it is from the public purse that subsidies to the racing industry are paid. The general public — including the non-betting public — are entitled to be confident that government is sensibly deciding the ‘how much’ public funding of racing. Silently mouth the words – “Is all the public money given to the racing industry the best use of those public funds?” — but do not say ‘no’ out loud.

Who subsidises racing anyway?
The ‘interests of racing’ mindlessly believe that the funding of racing comes from money contributed by the betting customers. Superficially it may seem so, some 5% of betting turnover is given to race clubs. What the ‘interests of racing’ choose not to comprehend is that if subsidies were not given to race clubs, the total ‘tax’ takeout from race betting pools would not be reduced one jot — simply, more would go to consolidated revenue, the public purse. The ‘earmarking’, for return to the racing industry, of a fixed share of total taxes on race betting is a political sleight of hand. What should be a recurrent ‘on budget’ funding decision by state governments (for which the racing industry has presented a cogent case) is presented as if there were no recurrent discretion. State governments have apparently entered into ’99-year’ contracts confirming this commitment to funding parochial racing industries that are increasingly irrelevant in a world that has moved on. The use of public funds to subsidise racing that does not meet the commercial ‘cut’ should stop.
There is a ‘time bomb’ ticking away for the racing industry — but it must not be mentioned.

In ‘the interests of racing’?
Hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars are handed to race clubs each year in Australia to subsidise the conduct of racing. Everyone actively participating in the racing industry — breeders, owners, trainers, jockeys, farriers, veterinarians, stable hands, administrators, broadcasters etc. — benefit financially from the flow of subsidies from the public purse. It is not in the interests of most active participants in the supply of racing to accept proposals that would impose commercial disciplines on the public funding of racing. Unable to negotiate any variation from the administratively imposed status quo, the ‘paralysed’ interests of racing can only see even more public money as the solution to obvious industry problems.
In these circumstances the ‘customer representative’ seeking a better deal for the betting customers, has a challenge in presenting the views of the industry participants that pay the subsidies. Refusing to hear the voice of rationality and substituting a more properly attuned ‘customer representative’ will prolong the problem, not solve the problem.
The interests of racing could first reconsider their sense of ‘entitlement’ to ever more public funding and then recognise clearly that the betting customers, and the funding community, want value for money. The general public does not appreciate the degraded entertainment and profligate of waste of public funds that shows up in the far-too-much racing now characterising the racing industry. Relatively few of the 22 000 races run in Australia each year warrant broadcasting beyond a limited locality, and even fewer warrant subsidies from the public purse to stage them.

Why would I want to be the consumer representative?
Around the table where ‘administrative’ decisions about the racing industry are made, I believe there is only one ‘participant’ that is not in paid employment in the racing industry or otherwise involved as an owner or breeder of racehorses. The ‘consumer representative’ position is not a paid position. This ‘consumer representative’ has brought to the table views and needs of TAB customers that put in 90% of the betting turnover. With the benefit of long and competent experience in public policy matters, I have brought fresh and contemporary thinking to the racing industry. There is no industry in Australia where the words ‘fresh and contemporary’ have traditionally been so unlikely to be welcome — and nothing seems to have changed.
I love racing. I carry Irish blood infused with racing culture. I have had a ‘bet’ on the races every Saturday for ’40’ years.
I am keen to expose issues that I believe are driving Australian racing backwards. I have long sought a better deal for the customers of racing. In 1995, in association with ‘Choice’, I negotiated with Ian Temby for customers to be represented in the administrative framework for racing in NSW. I have contributed subsequently — including in a submission put to the National Gambling Inquiry in 1998 and in evidence given at the public hearings of that Inquiry. I have enjoyed ongoing contact with the initial ‘consumer representative’ on RIPAC and seek out other articulate voices wanting a better deal for the customers of racing.
Since being appointed as the ‘consumer representative’ I have been a more provocative commentator on racing industry policy issues. Open, ‘no secrets’ discussion papers have been circulated in the racing industry and carried on the internet media site ‘crikey.com.au’. Australia’s ‘biggest’ bookmaker Mark Read said of one landmark effort (“Racing out of control”) that ‘it was the best article about the Australian racing industry that he had seen’. A submission No. 062 (‘Mair, P – Second Submission’) lodged with the Committee reviewing the Trade Practices Act can be viewed on the internet. This submission calls for the intervention of the ACCC in requiring both fair-trading protections of the customers of racing and a better, more competitive environment for race betting entertainment nationally. [Go to ‘tpareview.treasury.gov.au’ — extracts from my recent papers are available in the attachment to this ‘racing’ submission.]
The ideas I have put forward seeking a better deal for the customers of racing are generally considered to be thoughtful and well presented but confronting to the prevailing attitudes of the ‘interests of racing’. The interests of racing have comprehensively ignored the views expressed. The suggestions of mine that draw a swift and damning response are those that would impose commercial disciplines on the management of the racing industry — including, in particular, asking for a careful reassessment by State Treasuries of the public funding of the racing industry. What the taxpaying community (not least TAB punters) is getting in return needs to be weighed against the hundreds of millions of dollars from the public purse given to the racing industry. As of now, the two sides are badly out of balance.
If I were asked the question — “Would the current allocation of public funds to racing in NSW survive careful testing against broader public interest criteria?” — my clear and honest answer would have to be “No wafy”.
I would like to think that the NSW Parliament would take this heartfelt assessment into account when asked to vote on legislative amendments that would displace the incumbent ‘consumer representative’ for racing in NSW.
At that time the Parliament might also like to ask the Minister for Racing to reconsider the disregard so far shown for the representations made on behalf of the customers of racing and taxpayers, by their appointed representative.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-18, 12:55 PM
Oh dear. What a load of arrogant,self flagellating crap.
No wonder Mair got the sack.
Imagine having to put up with that waffle at every meeting :wavecry:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-22, 07:51 PM

Invasion-day weekend is no longer a racing-occasion

Addicted punters can bet modestly and early on Saturday, but then take the weekend off to enjoy alternative attractions.

............. $60,000 races at the Vale-of-tears on Friday night offer no appeal to connections or punters .....on Saturday, the main-quadrella races offering  $125k  at the Heath may be worth a cursory glance and a trivial bet ... and  there is no need to get excited about the BM 80 races at Randwick.

.......... the Monday programs tell Arthur Phillip to go back.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-23, 07:16 AM
I’ve got one of my great black bookers at the valley tomorrow night. R4, it appears to be named after you.

In fact there’s a few named after you in that race🤮
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-23, 07:16 PM


.................. horses akin to my preferences are not entered to run at the Vale-of-tears.

That leaves a flagraant little princess, akin to yours,  to be the bet of the night!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-23, 07:34 PM
Actually   a neurotic fool like you has a flagrant disregard for the truth.......princess
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-23, 09:13 PM

  .. ......put a bet on the princess!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-29, 09:07 PM


................ few horses still able to run


Low-grade fields for both Sydney and Melbourne on Saturday suggest the end of the road has been reached.

After a holiday surfeit of racing..............there are few horses left standing to be credible contenders.

December+January is not a good time for punters -- rough results spoil the prospect of considering the form.

As addicts we are slow to learn -- but we do eventually -- not betting in Brisbane and Adelaide or anywhere other than Sydney and Melbourne is more or less now accepted.

.............we slow learners have still to realize that we have no-chance of betting to form over December and January ........ the very holiday times when we fancy having a go.

There are great movies on to divert attention and save money for the Autumn.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Jan-29, 10:29 PM
You should start betting in Adelaide - you'll love it there you cretinous fool.

Field sizes today of 3, 6, 5, 6, 7, 6, 9 - Mair heaven!

Longest winner 9.30, remainder 3.90, 3.50, 3.30, 2.90, 2.20, 1.80 - Monty managed to tip all eight winners (there were only seven races).


Two things before you go (hopefully for good):

1. The 1.20 pop got beat in the 3-horse race.

2. These small fields you crave, which is becoming the norm in SA, is why their industry is on its' knees and staving off the grim reaper (only just). The one thing you want, which you continue to tell all who will listen over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again - will kill the industry.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-30, 09:10 PM


......... the issues are about 'fair and credible racing' not 'field sizes' alone


SA racing is now best considered an irrelevance -- do not even think about it --the SA government would be well advised to take 'point of consumption' taxes and close down racing in SA.

The same goes for Queensland -- the 'my state' game is over in both states.

The new problem is RVL and RNSW inflating field sizes with runners hoping to hang-on for 10th -- and corrupting the only relevant racing left in Australia.

................... there is no future in that.......... I am a very slow learner but ever less a believer!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jan-31, 06:23 AM

......... the issues are about 'fair and credible racing' not 'field sizes' alone





Mair starting to backpedal.

The evidence against his moronic theory has piled so high it’s starting to fall back on him.

Pedal faster Pete, 🚲
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Feb-15, 04:42 PM
PM, you are a genius. You predicted that Melbourne has big quaddie dividends.

The field sizes were 10,7, 10 and 11. It paid $68k in the NSW Tab. 

I should have picked it using your theories.  :bash: :bash:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-15, 06:56 PM


Should punters just abandon Melbourne metropolitan racing?

I am about to.

The pattern with Melbourne racing is that the results do not reflect the form.

Whatever is going 'wrong' from the punters perspective is not clear -- inflated fields do not help but there must be other things in play.

If the Blue Diamond meeting next Saturday does not run 'true to form' -- a once reliable benchmark for the integrity of MM racing might best be cast aside.

.......... a racing royal commission might expose problems akin to the banking industry.

Put differently, the contrast with SM racing results reflecting race form is ever more stark.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Feb-15, 08:30 PM
PM, you are a genius. You predicted that Melbourne has big quaddie dividends.

The field sizes were 10,7, 10 and 11. It paid $68k in the NSW Tab. 

I should have picked it using your theories.  :bash: :bash:

Yes a Mairs brain farts have been proven wrong yet again

Just watch him try and deflect   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-15, 09:19 PM



Ante-up kennel kids

I can only hope that, as I pull the plug on Melbourne racing, the wily-one and his wont-learn ilk will bet more and lose more.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Feb-16, 06:32 AM
That’s nasty Peter. Wishing  bad on people but then again, it is typical of your character 🤮
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-16, 09:36 AM

..... it was a bit nasty

............. in apologizing, may I rather hope that you kids bet more on MM racing and win more.

And let us know how you go.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Feb-16, 09:45 AM
Now the spiteful sarcasm

Oh dear  you really hate being proven wrong.
you know, when you react that way, t's no good for your mental health
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-16, 12:03 PM



Oh no! ... my good wishes are rebuffed......... apparently not confident of winning, let alone winning more.

Let me know how you go. I will be happy to be proven wrong -- so I can bet again on MM racing.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Feb-16, 07:40 PM
You’ve been proven wrong since you started spewing your crap.

Given you’ve got it so wrong & you’re  not betting on Melbourne anymore I assume this thread will no longer be required
Bye bye 🕺🏼
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-18, 03:00 PM



Some misapprehensions to be addressed

Not betting on MM racing does not imply not taking an interest in protecting most punters that do.

Other posted misapprehensions about my representative role, previously let go through to the keeper, are probably also best corrected .... and I will address that matter soon.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Feb-18, 06:14 PM
.

Other posted misapprehensions about my representative role, previously let go through to the keeper, are probably also best corrected .... and I will address that matter soon.


Well, it would be interesting to hear your side of it......without the spin. Are you capable?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-18, 07:01 PM



Richie still has the blinkers on

Never knock a champion – they always bite back

The Melbourne spring will again be incredible and will capture the nation.............

It has certainly attracted my attention ...... as, being now,  a load of over-hyped racing rubbish where 'the form' is rarely relevant because the determination of RVL to inflate fields sets the scene for most punters to be cleaned out.

The idea that Victorian metropolitan 'racing' captures-the-nation, became irrelevant long ago -- starting in the last decade and on a downhill run since.

.................. paying substantial  prize-money for running 10th ... fed most punters to fixed-odds corporates and rebate-betting syndicates.

......stay well clear of MM racing ........ remember last week ........ not 1990.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/never-knock-a-champion--they-always-bite-back-20200218




Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-18, 09:05 PM

OFF YOUR ROCKER ...... betting in Sydney or Melbourne tomorrow

.............lament and repent at your leisure ........ after betting on Sydney or Melbourne racing tomorrow.

Confirmation overview............ tomorrow night
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Feb-19, 06:36 AM
Nothing before hand?

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-19, 06:52 PM


.......... and 'nothing after-hand' ......... no results today were objectionable in Sydney or Melbourne.

Saturday is a D-day for Melbourne racing.........  BD-Day races usually run true to form... ?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Feb-19, 09:42 PM
So your dire predictions about today were wrong :chin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2020-Feb-20, 01:35 PM
Can't someone shoot this thread and put US out of our misery.......PLEASE????
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-20, 08:47 PM

An about true-to-form day is remarkable

...... ready.........fire......aim -- if BD day runs true to form it will be the first time for a long time.

[even the kennel kids cannot be happy with the rough results routinely the outcomes with MM racing.]
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-24, 09:09 AM


Melbourne racing -- who got the money?


The problems with Melbourne racing extend beyond 'inflated fields' -- not least presenting biased tracks.

On the past two Saturdays  some $5 million+ was bet nationally on the Melbourne quadrella -- and it all went west as far as most punters are concerned.

When the quadrella pays some $75,000 and $20,000 it is most unlikely that any punter betting modestly gets a share of the payout.

As well the rough results implicit in these big dividends mean that most punters lost as well on the individual races.

Rather the pool goes to the syndicates getting rebates for plundering the punt -- and the fixed-odds operators trousering the rough-result bets.

There is a strong case for relegating Melbourne racing to the sin-bin until it is fairly administered.

The coming Australian Cup meeting will signal the end of this Melbourne 'carnival' for predators -- bet very warily til then and don't bet again til the Spring.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Feb-24, 03:05 PM
Peter,

You make the village idiot look like a genius.

Plenty of non rebate punters got the quaddy for a %.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-24, 04:58 PM


Will Tabcorp give us the numbers so we both know?

The probabilities are that 'a few' modestly betting punters 'got a small %' but that the great bulk of the TAB pools went to syndicate operations.

The reasonable concern here is that the TABs do not disclose the distribution of dividends paid out matched against bets placed 'early' and 'late', 'big' and 'small' bets and bets attracting 'rebates'.

...........what is beyond question is that race betting is now corrupted by a range of deliberate administrative policies playing the winning cards into the hands of rebate-syndicates (betting into TAB pools) and fixed-odds operators closing accounts of 'likely winners' while cleaning the table when the predictably rough-results deprive most punters of a fair bet.

.....if you were genuine in your interest in fair play you would support the call for TABs to publish the betting and dividend numbers according to which class of punter did best on each race.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Feb-24, 05:35 PM
Idiot,

When big punters have million dollar win bets they get the majority of the dividends as well..... regardless of the field size. Small win bettors get a tiny % of the pool in these cases.

It is no different for exotic pools given the existence of flexi betting. WATAB lets you have 1c bets to smooth things further if you put the time in to do so.

If you are a $0.50 bettor your expectations should not extend beyond that of a $0.50 bettor. Your expectations that everything should be designed and put on based on your $ limitations and intellectual limitations puts the village idiot well ahead of you.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Feb-24, 05:47 PM
PM, a mate of mine got a 44% dividend of the Sydney Quaddie with a Corp. He had 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 and bets $36 each week along with another $24 on an early quaddie and a smaller percentage.

He walked away with a few quaddies in last 12 months. He picks the fav and an outsider plus another pick. He walked away with about $5-6k on the weekend.

He does not bet with the tab if corps have best quaddie deals. He is not a syndicate but he has done well. The week before he picked up the Sydney quaddie too. Sometimes it pays crap and other times well.

His theory is if you bet big and favs get up, then you end up losing. Thus I am not sure how big syndicates are betting with the tab as the dividends could be small.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-24, 06:34 PM

Abject stupidity and Idiocy

.................the two preceding posts meet the criteria for 'abject stupidity and Idiocy'

Even I have had a big-winning day a few times in the past 20 years -- and you know my skills.

Beyond that many of my bets applaud the option to have one or just a few cents live with a multi bet.

Linda Meech and Michael Walker riding winners makes my day, usually at the expense of my pocket.

I readily recognize 'Saturday racing' as the cheapest available entertainment for the poor -- for the price of going to a movie, the Irish among us get two days of once-was-wonderful entertainment with a minimum bet of one-cent.

..... the point is that even for the poor the business is best administered to deliver fair racing ... as of now .... in Melbourne especially .......it is being administered unfairly as a corrupted racket to the benefit of well-heeled insiders.

................these days most punters get robbed  .. some simple disclosures of bets-on and dividend outcomes would expose that corruption ..... and reforms would follow.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Feb-24, 06:49 PM
So PM if people make money from betting stupidly then you must be extremely rich from punting wisely.

So please share your tips so the idiots can lift themselves to your standards.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-24, 09:10 PM


A DFC is awarded, with no reservations,

...................to a person hiding behind the moniker  'jeunes' -- a CFW bar to this award will  be considered, and approved,  by the governor general.

...... well done china, a rare achievement for consistent performance!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Feb-24, 09:44 PM

A DFC is awarded, with no reservations,

...................to a person hiding behind the moniker  'jeunes' -- a CFW bar to this award will  be considered, and approved,  by the governor general.

...... well done china, a rare achievement for consistent performance!

That’s your best retort to being constantly wrong  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Feb-24, 09:48 PM

A DFC is awarded, with no reservations,

...................to a person hiding behind the moniker  'jeunes' -- a CFW bar to this award will  be considered, and approved,  by the governor general.

...... well done china, a rare achievement for consistent performance!

I accept the award and dedicate it to you PM for your fortitude and impeccable defence of a theory based on quicksand.   :lol:   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Feb-24, 09:51 PM
Quicksand??   :lol:   :lol:

Self interest and bald faced lies more like it :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2020-Feb-25, 12:26 PM
Do you all just like arguing?? Don't you know when an argument is over? this one has been dead that long it has even stopped smelling bad.....All that is left to bleach in the sun is just bare bones......I haven't seen any sign of someone even
 considering the other sides point of view....let alone actually changing their own mind....so just take one dip and END it!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-25, 08:05 PM

Maladministration is not a mystery

........anyone with a grasp of the 'shoulds' and should-nots' in race outcomes -- as reflected in the pre-post odds -- and personal betting losses -- knows  when it has all gone haywire.

The explanation for 'rough results' is mainly about races that have fields inflated with unqualified runners  -- especially with sprints and immature horses -- and then it is compounded by unfair tracks with 'no one' knowing 'why' it raced unfairly.

This is 2020... we should be seeing things more clearly.... not least administrators rigging the game to boost turnover and 'industry funding' -- and exploiting a committed customer base of mainly faithful addicts.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-Feb-25, 08:43 PM
The next horse I name will be called " White Coats " , named after Mair.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: arthur on 2020-Feb-25, 09:18 PM
  emthup  Dave . .

Gunny   . .  A couple of anagrams for your first choice  (often used in naming hayburners) that you may consider . . Wise to Chat/ Chat to Wise . . Twice as Hot . . I'll look out for them in a couple of years . . God Willing  :wub:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Antitab# on 2020-Feb-25, 11:26 PM
Pete

Do you really believe that every time there is a rough quadrella the syndicates benefit. It was over a decadea go when I was worked for the largest syndicate at the time  and I'm certain there selection methods have become more sophisticated but I can assure you big odds winners knock the syndicates out of quaddies and cause losing races for them as as much as the small punters.

Has it crossed your small little mind that some of these horses start such big odds precisely because the syndicates are betting around them?

 

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2020-Feb-26, 04:51 PM
Antitab, good one, I bet Petes listening and taking what you say on board, he will now offer an apology to all and sundry and admit he was wrong all this time......oh wait.....this is the real world.......I thought we had moved to the Bizarro world.....please ignore my previous prognostication.....real world prognostication.....Pete will ignore any evidence you give him......now that sounds better
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-26, 09:31 PM


.... rough results ..               place-getters at long odds   ... are the evidence that few 'got it right' -- and, more likely, that the algorithims of syndicates dedlivered the loot.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Feb-28, 09:49 PM


Friday-night racing is an insult to the industry

........ the insult is ever more offensive when the MM contribution is invariably from a vale-of-tears that only ever endorses that lamentable accolade while the outcomes reflect grossly inflated fields.

...........does anyone go to the course............... does anyone leave happy......... does the 'take' cover the prize-money.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-01, 05:43 PM


...... at last, a fair day of Saturday racing in Melbourne

Most punters would have enjoyed the racing at Flemington yesterday -- results consistent with the form-guide is a rare occurrence with MM racing.

Perhaps it had something to do with smaller fields allowing mainly well-matched runners to run on their merits without interference.

......  the fixed-odds operators and rebated-syndicates did not get the rough results they rely on ...... presumably they will complain to RVL and ask for their preferences for inflated fields and 'no-hoper' interfers to be restored.to be restored.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-01, 06:05 PM
Pathetically small fields riddled with lack of pace and interference issues.

Turnover looked to be affected. Punters hate small fields  :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-01, 08:09 PM

RACING at SHATIN  in Hong Kong -- is a no-go area with prevailing inflated fields

We have learned to steer well clear of racing at another un-happy-valley.

While there may be seasonal cycles in the reliability of HK form at Shatin, inflated fields are a turn off there as they are in Melbourne.

..................... racing administrators have a responsibility to deliver fair-racing ......... instead, they choose to take the bucks from inflated fields exploiting faithful (addicted) punters.

.............. no way to run a business...... bar drug-dealing!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-02, 06:51 PM


...... why would any racing administrator contemplate running a field of 15 --  all or no star -- runners over 1600m at Caulfield?


..... this begs for a rough result.... one likely to destroy the ASM concept . ..as it should be.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-03, 11:37 AM


The Minister misses the mark  -- at punters.com.au


This edition of 'A punter of the week' features Victoria's Minister for Racing, Martin Pakula.

20. Serious one to finish, what does racing need to do to get more people interested in the sport?

Attracting the next generation of racegoers in a competitive environment is about a lot of things - horse welfare, admission prices, dress codes/relaxed racing, shorter gaps between races, digital platforms, and broadcasting and marketing. Of course, superstar gallopers help, as we saw on Saturday with Alligator Blood in Melbourne and Te Akau Shark in Sydney.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-04, 07:04 PM


TODAY WAS A DISGRACE:  does Minister Paulka-- or anyone at RVL -- review racing outcomes?


A celebratory day, of midweek racing, at Flemington today could hardly have cast RVL in a worse light.

............. what happened today, was a disgrace --- incalculable first-four 'dividends' paying  'lotto like' numbers  were associated with a 'quadrella dividend' of some $70,000 / $100,000.

......looking for explanations, grossly inflated fields of low-grade runners must be prominent. 

Reviewing the replays, 'times' were  consistent with a good track -- why did this happen?

.......... RVL should put a stop to inflated-field racing.............. an embarrassment looms with the ASMile.

 

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Mar-04, 09:22 PM
Peter,

A broken clock is wrong twice a day but you might have managed once in a year to day.... for one for the races.

Extremely late money for Lanes mount but they did not get the win dividend.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-09, 08:06 AM


Seasonal complaints with Melbourne racing on Saturdays


.............the carnival is over for Melbourne racing as the next few Saturdays feature the some-star-mile before the stand-alones at Mourningtown and Smellaratt will make life hard again for the addicted TAB punters.

........ the some-star meeting on Saturday has a headline race but the results for the meeting last year are cautionary:

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-03-16/FLEMINGTON/M/R/1/Win
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-11, 07:21 AM
Warrick Farm today

Stay well clear of racing at the funny farm today.

Slow rated track with chockablock fields of mid-week runners isa prelude to a 'best not bet' day.

Sent from my SM-T550 using Tapatalk

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-12, 08:50 AM


Wasting punters money on races that should not be run


.............. and so it came to pass... another day of overcrowded low-grade races that should not have ben run at the funny farm track.



Sent from my SM-T550 using Tapatalk

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2020-Mar-12, 10:54 AM

Wasting punters money on races that should not be run


.............. and so it came to pass... another day of overcrowded low-grade races that should not have ben run at the funny farm track.



Sent from my SM-T550 using Tapatalk

Pete,

You are a real "half glass empty" bloke.

First winner on debut Chianti (reminds me of Silence Of The Lambs) was sensational.

Plunge horse got up in Race 4.

High Low Bet in the Ingham colours gets 3 in a row in the 5th.

You are missing out on all the fun mate   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: napes on 2020-Mar-12, 11:12 AM
Pete's idea of fun,

Racing once a week, only in Melbourne ( but not with Racing Victoria in charge), 3 races, 4 horses in each race. And someone to tell him which horse is guaranteed to win each race.

He'd probably still miss the winner and find something to whinge about  :clap2:

If you don't want your money used on races that shouldn't be run, don't bet, or even better, win.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2020-Mar-12, 02:01 PM
Pete's idea of fun,

Racing once a week, only in Melbourne ( but not with Racing Victoria in charge), 3 races, 4 horses in each race. And someone to tell him which horse is guaranteed to win each race.

He'd probably still miss the winner and find something to whinge about  :clap2:


  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-18, 09:54 PM


TAB Punters bewa Mourningtown looms for Saturday  ... and more mourning on Sunday
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-18, 10:04 PM


The prospects at Rosehill on Saturday are much the same for the 'put the slipper into punters' day.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-19, 09:33 AM


Treating TAB punters with disrespect

In the course of a long-winded 'explanation' of the minus 16% betting turnover outcome for the some-star-mile day -- RVL offered this tit bit.

“The importance of starter numbers is perhaps best demonstrated by the fact that turnover on Saturday’s secondary meeting at Geelong was up 10% off the back of a 13.6% increase in starter numbers.



Strike me roan........... check the 'results' for Geelong on Saturday:

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2020-03-14/GEELONG/C/R/8/Win

No TAB punters would have been happy with this  -- the quadrellas paid $8k and 11k ........the first fours, paying an average of 8k, were indicative of unfathomable low-grade nonsense.


.................starter numbers sure are important in presenting low grade product to most punters!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-19, 10:03 AM
So Mair has been telling us for years that 14 or less is the optimum field size

Geelong on Saturday? :chin:
14
14
11
12
10
14
12
13



So field size has zero effect on dividends as they are perfect size fields for Mair

4 of the 8 winners were 5-1 chances and another 13-2  :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-19, 11:24 AM


Field sizes -- 'optimum' meaning 'fair' for punters and owners of the best horses

In the normal course of racing the appropriate field size would be 10 'accepted' including two emergencies.

..........i.e. -------- 8 to run

Field sizes of 14 -- and more -- are entirely inappropriate (except possibly for the icon Group1 races with strict eligibility criteria).

More generally the eligibility of all horses to be accepted would be controlled to ensure all have a real chance of winning.

Note: runners nominated would be 'accepted' (or not) according to the rules -- connections would not decide to accept -- they would be told if they are accepted.

[..............as for Geelong on Saturday ........... I did not make up the results............. if betting is only allowed on the 'win' outcome that may be different .....as is the results were a disgraceful reflection on regional racing...fortunately the TAB pools were of no material consequence.]

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-19, 11:32 AM


Mourningtown -- obviously -- will be best avoided on Saturday


............. these regional clubs cannot resist the temptation to take more money instead of providing racing likely to be fair to most punters.

Check the field sizes:

https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2020Mar21%2CVIC%2CMornington

..............standalone = stand aside
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-19, 03:52 PM
So you admit you were wrong about field sizes and have come up with a new theory 🍾
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-19, 04:33 PM

Where did I say this, please?

                                Mair has been telling us for years that 14 or less is the optimum field size
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-19, 08:15 PM
Where did I say this, please?

                                Mair has been telling us for years that 14 or less is the optimum field size
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-19, 08:20 PM


shifty old dog ........... not really a response to the question

Where did I say this, please?

                                Mair has been telling us for years that 14 or less is the optimum field size
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Wenona on 2020-Mar-20, 10:01 AM

Good advice:  'fours'  about 'first fours'....... I qualify


I will pay more attention to 50% place-getters starting at long odds.

F4s, my most common bet --  rarely successful -- are most likely to win when there is a smallish field with clear favourites and the rest of the field goes in for fourth.

Alas, big F4 (and quadrella) dividends occur mainly when a favourite does not win and a race is corrupted by an inflated field.

Some races -- e.g. over 1400 at Caulfield and Flemington -- are notoriously unfair with an inflated field and the favourites cannot get to the front.

Most TAB punters assume the race will be 'fair' and exclude 'no-hopers' starting at more than 10/1.

I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.

It is syndicates that cover the field and plunder the pools with rough results.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-20, 03:54 PM
Wenona
It tells us how stupid Mair is when he tells us his most common bet is F4s and he rarely wins  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-20, 08:26 PM


...... another rough night at the 'vale of tears'

..... the first and last took most punters out of otherwise confident quadrella bets

I will plead guilty to being a 'never learner'  -- just one among far too many sucked in to follow the form.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2020-Mar-20, 09:12 PM

...... another rough night at the 'vale of tears'

..... the first and last took most punters out of otherwise confident quadrella bets

I

The winner of the first was having its first start after a spell.

At its previous first-up runs it had 3 runs for 2 wins and a 1 second.

And it was tipped in the forum's  Weekday comp by Specialweek.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-20, 09:26 PM


......that may well be so,

................ the reality, alas, is that 'no one' considered it a genuine winning chance.......and had no good reason to.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: sobig on 2020-Mar-20, 10:03 PM
You should have followed Mark Guest whose suggested quaddie was successful (192 combos for the 4k result)
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-21, 06:53 AM

......that may well be so,

................ the reality, alas, is that 'no one' considered it a genuine winning chance.......and had no good reason to.


That’s because the “no ones” who you refer to don’t do the form. Just like you :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-21, 07:01 AM

...... another rough night at the 'vale of tears'

..... the first and last took most punters out of otherwise confident quadrella bets

I will plead guilty to being a 'never learner'  -- just one among far too many sucked in to follow the form.




I had Alsvin in my black book  :thumbsup:

I also had the $25 winner Mamzell Tess as one of my 2 selections in the last leg of the main quaddy.  :thumbsup:


Do your form Peter  :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Wenona on 2020-Mar-21, 09:50 AM
Quote from: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-05, 06:58  PM


    I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-21, 10:57 AM
Quote from: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-05, 06:58  PM


    I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.

  :lol:
If it wasn’t so funny :tin:

Mind you, we know what a complete fool he is.

Remind me Peter why you are no longer employed in the racing industry  :whistle:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-21, 03:24 PM

Mourningtown -- obviously -- will be best avoided on Saturday


............. these regional clubs cannot resist the temptation to take more money instead of providing racing likely to be fair to most punters.

Check the field sizes:

https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2020Mar21%2CVIC%2CMornington

..............standalone = stand aside

Well 7 races down and Mair has goosed himself again. Favoured runners dominating

Fave
3rd fave
2nd fave
2nd Fave
Fave
Fave
2nd fave

  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-21, 04:30 PM

Mourningtown -- obviously -- will be best avoided on Saturday


............. these regional clubs cannot resist the temptation to take more money instead of providing racing likely to be fair to most punters.

Check the field sizes:

https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2020Mar21%2CVIC%2CMornington

..............standalone = stand aside


Time you stood aside Mair

Quaddy paid $460 and the early $600

Clearly your brain fart was ignored by punters  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-21, 08:45 PM

The quest for 'fair fields', always,  is not answered by one day's outcomes


One fair outcome, today, does not compensate for past unfairness.

Even Monty read the form right today.

The sense of presenting 'fair racing' is best protected by club promoters having policies on 'acceptances' that ensure the prospect of a fair race, one not compromised by fields inflated by runners, hoping for 10th, impeding the running of runners there to win. 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-22, 07:26 AM

The quest for 'fair fields', always,  is not answered by one day's outcomes




Well, you got that right. A bloody shame for you that you’ve got most other days massively wrong as well : :thumbsup:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-23, 09:20 PM


w-o-d  posts from the kennel,

................ every thing the w-o-d posts suggests he is an urger associated with RVL and its affiliates.

Until he is unveiled, for who and what he is,  his posts should be treated with contempt.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-24, 08:37 AM
Oh peter. Give up. You’re wrong yet again  :lol:

Fock, you must hate looking in the mirror every morning
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-24, 09:16 PM


........another silly senseless remark   -- fess up......... to who are you and your linkages... or just a noisy phantom.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-25, 08:35 PM

Bendy-no-go on Saturday------  this advice looks best {/b]

                                                        ..... 'no go' starts favourite:

Check the inflated fields:

https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2020Mar28%2CVIC%2CBendigo'

Check the rough results from last year:

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-03-30/BENDIGO/M/R/9/Win

. ...............who dares.....will not win?

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-27, 09:31 PM


Today's results -- racing administrators in NSW and Victoria  should be stood down

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2020-03-27/MUSWELLBROOK/MUS/R/1

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2020-03-27/PAKENHAM/PAK/R/9

This is disgraceful.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Mar-28, 08:17 AM
Poor Pete didn’t see the last run of Petrology or the blinkers going on for the first time on the former G1 winner  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Mar-28, 09:56 AM
Ahem,

Petrology graded NUMBER 1 on ratings very clearly for that race.

Can't get any easier or UNHIDDEN then that.

But of course Peter does ZERO work and even less learning.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Wenona on 2020-Mar-28, 04:46 PM
Let's again remind everyone of Pete's wisdom:

Quote from: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-05, 06:58  PM


    I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-29, 11:28 AM


Monty does Bendigo,

As expected, the results for racing at  Bendigo yesterday show that it was a 'no go' for most punters.

What these results do not show is that Monty's top-5 -- in the smh -- included 8 of the 9 winners in the 5 -- and in the early-quadrella races his winning selections (after scratchings) were his second or third apart from the 2yro race won by his 5th selection.

...........this quadrella paid $4000 and 5,500 on the nsw and vic TAB.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Mar-30, 07:44 PM
Lowest quaddie I have seen in Pinjarra today. $17.60
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-31, 05:47 PM


How about 10-max -- always and forever?

                              ..............still not respecting the punters that pay the freight.

Racing Victoria has capped field sizes at both city and country meetings in the organisation’s latest measure to keep racing through the COVID-19 crisis.

City fields will be restricted to a maximum of 14 runners..............
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Mar-31, 06:43 PM


Oh No --- not a wet track at Randwick at Easter again.


Who would believe that after 20 years of the same?

Fellow addicts, isolated at home with SFA-else to do, may be pleased that racing is up and running ---  today would have brought no joy ------  a heavy Rosehill track tomorrow will compound the misery.

A serious heavy-track disaster looms on Saturday for most punters--- after another 25 mm of rain. 

This 'good' racing is what we wait for but do not get-- this predictably forlorn prospect is all that RNSW needs to swiftly shift its 'carnival' focus to the spring.

..... it never rains in Sydney on the second Sunday in August ......... spring, in Sydney, is now the best prospect for fair racing........................grossly inflated fields in Sydney on Saturday on a wet track will drive the point home.

Will the administrators learn?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-01, 07:23 PM


Saturday's Doncaster meeting should be postponed now -- to Sunday at least

Thursday 2 April    Rain. 5 to 15 mm  90%

Friday 3 April    Rain increasing    8 to 25 mm 90%


Another 40 mm, on an already heavy track, portends another Easter disaster ........... after 20 years RNSW is looking like a very slow learner.

RVL has so lost the plot so completely that RNSW should simply take over the Spring racing season.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Villa on 2020-Apr-01, 10:23 PM

Saturday's Doncaster meeting should be postponed now -- to Sunday at least

Thursday 2 April    Rain. 5 to 15 mm  90%

Friday 3 April    Rain increasing    8 to 25 mm 90%


Another 40 mm, on an already heavy track, portends another Easter disaster ........... after 20 years RNSW is looking like a very slow learner.

RVL has so lost the plot so completely that RNSW should simply take over the Spring racing season.

Maybe P V’landys can come up with something like an ODDS & EVENS type of bet to help pay for a decent track surface in Sydney🤣🤣🤣
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-05, 07:52 AM

Saturday's Doncaster meeting should be postponed now -- to Sunday at least




Thank god your not in a position to make decisions any more😁
Great days racing.
A sparkling autumn day and the track played wonderfully🤗

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Apr-05, 11:17 AM

Thank god your not in a position to make decisions any more😁
Great days racing.
A sparkling autumn day and the track played wonderfully🤗

Not some of the rides. I did not  understand the ride on Warning and still getting over the disappointment of Pierata coming wide and costing me a straight trifecta and first four. It was only for a few $ though.

I can’t wait for next week with the QE, Oaks and Sydney Cup plus the Coolmore.

The coverage has been good without all the usual crap we see at times with the side interviews. Quite good to see more racing info for past few weeks than previously with racing just being a side show.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-05, 05:17 PM
Yes the ride on warning was an indecivie inept effort.  No doubt
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-08, 06:30 PM


Races at the 'funny farm' -- should not have been run today.

RNSW's race meeting at Warrick Farm today was a dead loss for most punters.

Not only did TAB punters ante up some $400,000 in prize-money that would not have gone anywhere close to being recovered, RNSW delivered product to punters that was predictably designed to disadvantage them.

That should be a trade-practices offence.

Fancy running quadrella races averaging 14 starters on a heavy track at a 'funny farm' that should not be used for racing, at all, unless field sizes are limited to 8.

.......... remarkably the VICTAB pool for this quadrella, $107,000 was bigger than the $94,000 that the NSWTAB held........... the 'notional' dividends declared were $40,000 and $60,000....... along with comparably indictable F4 'payouts'.

 



 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2020-Apr-08, 06:41 PM
Peter

I would respectfully suggest you take your interest elsewhere.

Obviously Racing has far too many faults.

And you've spent so many years having your helpful suggestions fall on barren ground that its obvious they won't be adopted.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-08, 08:08 PM


A bit of a licker

...........would be a more apt  for JWH than someone making a 'respectful suggestion'.

Tell me what you think will be the outcome for the races run at Caulfield on Saturday.

........ inflated fields of low-grade runners on a soft track.. ..you well know what I would tell you!

The 'funny farm' debacle today was entirely predictable.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-12, 09:00 PM


As night follows day --------- yesterday's results were so predictably unfair


You did not --Tell me what you think will be the outcome for the races run at Caulfield on Saturday.

........ inflated fields of low-grade runners on a soft track.. .. you well know what I would tell you!


Too many runners, too many not qualified to 'win', too many there to run 10th....... too many reasons to demand a fundamental change of policy about race-field numbers and the entitlement of 'acceptors' to be accepted.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: nemisis on 2020-Apr-13, 07:56 AM
Well done to the Kiwi connections of Etah James.......gutsy little staying daughter of Raise The Flag rewarded their perseverance with a big payday.
Always goes around at big odds and plenty seem to have missed her last run.......strange but good.

Was I on?.....no...... I'm off the punt......was on last start of course!.....and the start before that and so on.  :what:

Certainly a "smokie" in the last, Peter........not a local but 20's into 7's, so some leave the course happy.
Well done to the Kiwi connections of Etah James......gutsy little staying daughter of Raise The Flag rewarded their perseverance with an even bigger payday.
Always goes around at big odds and only some may have missed her last run.....silly but good.

Was I on .....yes...at $23......I'm on the punt.....was on last start and the start before that.....both in Auckland.

It's ok to have your Mrs Fitzherberts, Peter....makes it fun......especially when they are underrated.....saves you doing the form.....just don't have too many!

Bossy half declared the 7yr old NZ mare I believe....$26 into $14.....I was expecting $26 out to $50.
Had some Tears I Cry 'spit and polish'  :whistle: applied as well.

Missed by Monty, called 'this thing' by Boss and referred  to as 'he' by the racecaller......but not missed by everybody.

Lovely little clean winded staying mare from the Sth Island of NZ shows that you don't need to be sent around every two weeks on hard Victorian tracks to prove your worth.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Apr-13, 10:58 AM
Peter,

Nothing like a little before the race tipping to show you are totally clueless and also wrong.

My pre race Caulfiled tips, 6 of them, showed a fantastic each way profit. 12 units out returned $24.40 back.

Some how I found reasons to include a horse at $125.00 the win pick in my selections...... You wouldn't let it run.... says it all really.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-13, 09:26 PM


........... one rough result says nothing ..........however you may have selected it


Betting 12 and getting 24 back 'once' is 'breaking even' given the risks  -- and if one 'contributor' was at 125/1 it was, overall,  a 'dumb bet'.

The 'claims' to 'integrity' have no substance when a stunt  pulled depends on an 'at all costs' win ride -- and the stewards do nothing to run to ground who was told 'what' and the bets they placed.

An industry endorsing unrestrained 'insider trading' -- to 'win or lose' is an industry without integrity.

....... and then, compounding a corrupted culture with 'inflated fields', is a last straw.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Apr-13, 09:44 PM
Peter,

I see the idiot hat is still firmly on your head and this is why.

Midterm copped interference rather than causing it. Yet it managed to recover, gain its balance again and then surge to the line like a good favourite should.

I mentioned the term favourite for a reason. Midterm was the best horse in the race and the ratings say so - not by a little bit but by a lot.

The fact that the market allowed Midterm to go around at $125.00 the win shows you that most punters are focused on the wrong things when doing their form.

You claim roughly priced horses get in the way and cause interference - again Midterm was a victim of interference rather than the cause. The interference was fair however in that it was merely horses racing tight around the turn jostling for a way to run forward. Competitive riding which we want to see rather than whine about.

Peter it is very clear that you will never do the work required to see what are in fact the best horses in a race - so keep donating. Thank you for that.

Fours



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-15, 12:40 PM


Let's talk about the Vobis-Gold race meeting on Saturday at Caulfield


Talk about a looming disaster -- consider the main quadrella races scheduled for Saturday.

Race 6 -- 16 2yros running over 1200m.

Race 7 -- a 'listed' open handicap -- 16 to run

Race 8 -- 1100m swp event for 3ryo -- 16 to run

Race 9 -- 1600m sw event for 3yro -- 16 to run.

What do you think will happen  - immature horses, inflated fields, vobis-only horses, soft track?

..................................OK, on second thoughts, let's not talk about it -- let your mind fly to Randwick.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Apr-15, 01:46 PM
IDIOT
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-16, 08:38 AM

sometimes...........not always


The punters.com.au team are also wary of Vobis fools gold -- the assessment of races 5&6 is sobering:

This is an absolute nightmare of a race.............This is arguably even harder (than race five) in what is a challenging start for quaddie players............. a near-impossible affair.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-17, 07:34 PM

A mix of complexity and simplicity -- RVL mis-managment writ large

There is no point saying this on Sunday.

Following on the some-star mile nonsense it is perhaps not surprising that RVL is promoting another day of mixed nonsense.

Why waste $1.5 million of punters money on a set of low-grade and overcrowded quadrella races that promise rough-results?

Putting aside that and Race1 --  [14 low-grade starters over the notoriously unfair 1400m course] -- the next 3 races are acceptably-sized with odds-on favourites likely to win  -- ahead of an early quadrella (take the field) final-leg lottery.

This is not sensible.

....... there are problems with the administration of RVL .....  whatever is passing for respecting some unique victorian-culture, is just wrecking its racing industry.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-18, 07:24 PM


A PREDICTABLY DISGRACEFUL DISPLAY OF FOOLS-GOLD ON VOBIS DAY AT CAULFIELD
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-18, 08:25 PM
Well Pete, i was alive in the last leg with 3 runners going for me

Why weren’t you?


The dividends being  74k, 19k & 11k .

I was overjoyed to have 3 big paying tickets. Sadly, the last leg didn’t fall my way but I got plenty of joy out of the bet, especially with the post looming

Joy, do you know what that is?

Granted the last leg was a blow out but if you had an ounce of punting nous you may have been alive like I was

The big dividends are what people want but don’t demand.  thats the beauty of the quaddie
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Apr-18, 10:50 PM

Putting aside that and Race1 --  [14 low-grade starters over the notoriously unfair 1400m course] -- the next 3 races are acceptably-sized with odds-on favourites likely to win  -- ahead of an early quadrella (take the field) final-leg lottery.


This is absolute peak-Mair.

The three "odds-on faves all likely to win" LOST, and the final leg lottery was won by the 13/4 favourite.


Karma for an absolute germ.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: nemisis on 2020-Apr-19, 10:48 AM
I'd say that's one that has got away Wily...and a big one!....being the video watcher that you are.

You know the day on the punt is not going to go well when you have barely looked at the fields and think you've got the Quinella 3 times on the 2nd in Adelaide, only to discover you haven't clicked the submit  :o

Walked into the room with my account on $0 just as the Fiorente filly, Florent walks across the screen........'.big finish from this girl last start' declares Clint Hutchinson.......so I went and had a look......can we call them big finishes in both her last runs or just getting ready for this race and the bonuses?........whatever .......$61
Thanks Clint and thanks TAB for a bonus bet .......talk about getting your nose down right on the line.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-19, 11:49 AM

SUNDAY-CLUTCHERS LOOKING FOR  STRAWS

A small cohort of 'Sunday-clutchers' blindly defends an RVL hell-bent on degrading their racing -- and bringing racing more generaly into disrepute.

Lets have some comments on Wednesday, clutchers.

As well as myself, any Blind Freddy could see on Wednesday what was likely on Saturday.

Talk about a looming disaster -- consider the main quadrella races scheduled for Saturday.

What do you think will happen  - immature horses, inflated fields, vobis-only horses, soft track?


It was a race meeting that should not have been held -- and should not be ever again -- it made a mockery of  state-selfishness underwriting a Vobis scheme and its profligate waste of punters money on low-grade racing.

Let there be no mistake about what happened, predictably:  it was....

                       A DISGRACEFUL DISPLAY OF FOOLS-GOLD ON VOBIS DAY

Quadddies paying $50k and $200k along with a couple of F4s paying 55k and 80k underlines the corruption.

I will now have a look at what the racing media men have to say by way of explanation.



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: nemisis on 2020-Apr-19, 12:03 PM
And where was the soft track Peter?
Have to say the Caulfield track played very well......not a lot of softness about it.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Apr-19, 12:40 PM
Stop lying.

Quit re-writing history to suit your perverted needs.

Stop telling blatant lies.


This is what you spurt post-event, claiming YOU and EVERYBODY ELSE could see how things would pan out.


As well as myself, any Blind Freddy could see on Wednesday what was likely on Saturday.


This is what you said pre-event, before your three 'good things' LOST and the supposed lottery race was won by the FAVOURITE.


Putting aside that and Race1 --  [14 low-grade starters over the notoriously unfair 1400m course] -- the next 3 races are acceptably-sized with odds-on favourites likely to win  -- ahead of an early quadrella (take the field) final-leg lottery.


Lies to suit.

About time you hopped on a cruise ship I think.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-19, 12:53 PM
SUNDAY-CLUTCHERS LOOKING FOR  STRAWS

A small cohort of 'Sunday-clutchers' blindly defends an RVL hell-bent on degrading their racing -- and bringing racing more generaly into disrepute.

Lets have some comments on Wednesday, clutchers.

You’re the Wednesday’ clutcher. Constantly throwing mud that often proves misguided. You were wrong again this week

As well as myself, any Blind Freddy could see on Wednesday what was likely on Saturday.

Well, you couldn’t.  your odds on favs got rolled as expected by those of us who do form. You clearly just looked at names and odds and got your arse whipped as you deserved


Talk about a looming disaster -- consider the main quadrella races scheduled for Saturday.

What do you think will happen  - immature horses, inflated fields, vobis-only horses, soft track?


Well, I was alive in the quaddy and my $32 selection was showing a 74k dividend. A bloody shame I was nutted on the post.
According to you my long shots should not have run. They were only long shots thanks to morons like you not doing form  :lol:


It was a race meeting that should not have been held -- and should not be ever again -- it made a mockery of  state-selfishness underwriting a Vobis scheme and its profligate waste of punters money on low-grade racing.


Well Peter, you proved a dunce in your role with the industry. Isn’t that why you were moved on?
Thank god given your drivel



Let there be no mistake about what happened, predictably:  it was....

                       A DISGRACEFUL DISPLAY OF FOOLS-GOLD ON VOBIS DAY

Quadddies paying $50k and $200k along with a couple of F4s paying 55k and 80k underlines the corruption.

Envy is a disease peter. Improve yourself

I will now have a look at what the racing media men have to say by way of explanation.

Really  :lol:  you’ve constantly refused to enter into form discussion with anyone here. You spew you brain farts and run away

Who are these media people you wish to discuss things with? Do you think they’ll give your brain farts the time of day?
  :lol:



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Apr-19, 01:47 PM
Pre race proof is in the pudding

Peter my thread ONLY looked at fields of 12 or more.


Absolutely every bet type mentioned ended in profits - EVERYTHING.


It did not matter if it was favourites or roughies or win bets or place bets or exactas.

Hopefully we wont see any more of your blatantly wrong drivel about big fields again.

You have been shown to be comprehensively wrong with before the race tips.

This also leaves your claims of after the race experts wrong as well.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-19, 08:03 PM


The racing media men did not seem to have anything substantial to say:

Racenet ducked with Vobis Gold day looked tough on paper and that’s how it played out

To their credit Punters.com.au  voted correctly early --

This is an absolute nightmare of a race.............This is arguably even harder (than race five) in what is a challenging start for quaddie players............. a near-impossible affair.

As we know the racing media men are now fitted with virus masks -- as well as the usual blinkers, tongue ties and, retrospectively, blindfolds.

........... back at the ranch

..............a self-identifying cheer-squad cohort -- of four -- supporting RVL -- must be very rich ...... they mine gold on the good days and the worst days ...... never a losing day...... incredible.........unbelievable.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-Apr-19, 08:28 PM
Don't look at the Forum as much these days. Maybe if the moderators put those needing some form of therapy like Mair into permanent self-isolation then it might attract more interest . One does tire of repetitive nonsense from the intellectually challenged such as him /her /or what ever it is . Hard to believe it could be anything approaching a sane human being.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-19, 09:22 PM

................. there may now be five


..............a self-identifying cheer-squad cohort -- of four --

RVL should be called to account for the compounding indictment of their policies in place 'inflating fields'.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-19, 09:35 PM
Come in Pete, I thought you were up for a discussion

Weak as piss as usual, from you  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-19, 09:37 PM
Keep sane -- eye on the ball

........ when I can tell you on Wednesday, that the racing will be really rough on Saturday,

              ......... there is a measure of credibility in the outcome when 'rough-as-guts' it was.

None of the RVL lickers puts their name on the line -- just an anon 'party line'.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-19, 09:57 PM
So Peter, why did you back Pippie and not Vainstream?
Why did you back Mr Quickie?

Did monty tell you to?

Why didn’t you back William Thomas, are your eyes painted on?

Did you do any form on the last race?

Did you take a quaddy yourself?

Pick which ones you wish to discuss first  :thumbsup:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-19, 10:10 PM


....... useful contributions are made on Wednesday .......... Sunday is useless hindsight bs!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-20, 07:24 AM
I knew you didn’t have the ability
No wonder you’re no longer gainfully employed in the industry   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-21, 12:29 PM



ANOTHER TALE OF TWO CITIES


Evidence for a unique failure of its administrators to deliver fair racing in Victoria can also be found in the comparative performance of media tipsters – people well enough informed but never perfect .........and some better than others.

The most reliably consistent, and best, media tipster is Shane Montgomery – published in Saturday’s SMH as ‘Monty’s Top5’ for Sydney and, usually, Melbourne.

[In the news-corpse stable Racenet , Punters.com.au and Bet Busters are very useful and among others, Chris Roots is also – tips sourced from working-journalists sometimes seem to have helpful access to ‘stable information’ which Monty probably does not as he finalizes his copy on Thursday.]

For two years now – in the wake of ‘inflated field’ policies being put in place – Monty’s once about-even success rate between the states has given way to a clear and sharp difference.

These days Monty’s tips for Sydney racing are, by far, more consistently successful than for Melbourne  -- and I have alluded to this before.

Last Saturday was no different.

For Sydney, in the main quadrella – paying $20k, Monty included the winner in three legs – only missing Life Less Ordinary, a late-mail smokey – and collectively including 10 of the 16 first-four placegetters.

In the other city – a featured Vobis meeting with lavish prize-money -- the quadrella paid $200k -- Monty did not include any of the four winners. He did have 6 of the 16 finishing first4 but only one in each of the first and last legs where the F4s paid some $50k in both.

To some extent the starkness of the contrast on Saturday reflects capacity fields in races, for immature horses, that should not have been run – overall a predictably terrible outcome that should have been as evident to the administrators as it was to others once the fields were declared.

There is a problem at RVL and it does not yet seem to be acknowledged let alone be addressed.


                                                                 XXXXXXXXXXXXXX



[....... on a personal note my role as consumer-representative at RNSW started in October 2000 and finished in mid-2004 once an act of parliament had been legislated to preclude my re-appointment – and even that was a failure,  the independent selection panel again nominated me as the selection.

The RNSW response was to ‘appoint no-one’ and later have the legislation amended to remove any reference to a ‘consumer representative'  -- a position I sponsored to be created in 1995 at the 'jockey tapes inquiry.

As my role was an ‘unpaid statutory position’,  if I was so ‘gainfully employed’ the gain must have gone to punters.

The process of removing me from a statutory position started with one Richard Face in mid 2001  -- after I published a paper titled ‘racing out of control’ – gathered pace in 2002 and was then pursued via a clutch of replacement ministers ending with one named McBride.

[Asked at a parliamentary committee hearing 'why he was to be so excluded’ the minister ‘did not know’ and deferred to a departmental representative who made no useful response.]

Some additional background is available at Google [Peter Mair –Australia]

www.crikey.com.au › 2002/07/07 › peter-mair-to-be-a...

Jul 7, 2002 - Australia's leading consumer racing advocate Peter Mair is being axed by a special act of Parliament brought on by Racing Minister Dick Face.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-21, 12:45 PM


........an elusive link

Try this: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=10&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjhkOSEuPjoAhVC4zgGHSGCBpkQFjAJegQIARAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.crikey.com.au%2F2002%2F07%2F07%2Fpeter-mair-to-be-axed-as-racing-advocate-by-dick-face%2F&usg=AOvVaw0csrqOOu7PUro_Zs2NxE6Z
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Apr-21, 01:10 PM
Peter,

You are mentally ill.

That's why they got rid of you.

Your repeated claims being shown to be false both before the race, and after the race, have zero effect on you - and that's the illnness.

You may deny reality but no one else does - in this respect anyway.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-21, 02:53 PM
Well, Peter has finally got something right. As he said, when he was axed  the gain did most certainly  go to punters..  :lol:



the gain must have gone to punters..

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-21, 02:58 PM
.

In the other city – a featured Vobis meeting with lavish prize-money -- the quadrella paid $200k -- Monty did not include any of the four winners.


Geez old monty should have asked the old dog. I had 3 legs and a terribly close 2nd in the last leg. I didn’t think it was real hard  :whistle:

Perhaps that’s where your problem lies Peter, starting thinking for yourself, if it doesn’t hurt too much   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Dave on 2020-Apr-21, 06:13 PM
I don't understand why anyone would argue the point with Peter.......what are you trying to achieve? either you are trying to convince Pete he is wrong(never gonna happen) or you just like to listen to yourself talk(write) either way take note of what one of the most intelligent people to ever lived said on the subject.......
Albert Einstein is widely credited with saying, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results."
if you are not expecting different results, WTF are your expectations? You already have everyone agreeing with you while Pete is all alone......ain't that enough?? let it die!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-21, 07:09 PM
Of course your right Dave but ......  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Villa on 2020-Apr-21, 07:10 PM
NO WAY!.....Please don’t stop. All the other sites shutdown personal abuse. This is great!,
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-21, 07:11 PM

Thanks Dave -- I do not write for the 'always winners'


..... .......... they should be off and away enjoying the good life that always winning allows.

I write to remind those, with a sense of proper public policy, that know in their hearts that what is passing for 'racing policy' in Victoria is an exploitative affront to a large and loyal customer base of TAB-punters betting modestly  -- and now taking 'fixed odds' bets with TABs and other corporates (all only allowing losers-only to have open accounts).

The concept of a 16% 'maximum overall TAB takeout' flew out the window a while ago.

Initially caught off-guard, TABs lamented the 'corporate raiders -- and then the penny dropped -- join them and show them how to really screw the modest-punter.

The strategy needed the compliance of racing administrators -- it came with a master stroke --  paying $'000s down to horses running 10th, to so inflate the fields that the integrity and fairness of affected races would be  corrupted to make backing-a-winner a rare event for most punters taking a bet on most races.

Few of the modest-punter cohort would read the forum and -- being 'loyal/addicted' -- they are no/slow learners   -- now attuned to losing 100% most days and chided for being time-poor and 'not sensibly doing the form' long enough to understand why they do not win.

I could go on.........

Suffice to say no 'gainfully employed'  professional in the racing media has the independence to expose the blatant fraud  -- and any that did would be sacked immediately. The racing media is captive -- writing 'feel good' nonsense.

Make no mistake, racing in Victoria is being run as a monopolized racket with no semblance of protections for most customers --  on the contrary, their predators are given a leg up.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-21, 07:49 PM
So the question to Mair yet again, is  Why are you here spewing your shit.?
Racenet awaits as do other forums. :chin:

The answer is that this is the only joint to tolerate his  lies and slanderous accusations, he doesn’t have the balls to front the people he accuses of fraud etc

Villa! As funny as it is  I suggest the day is not far away where the owner of this joint may strike some trouble due to Mair and his accusations
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Villa on 2020-Apr-21, 08:47 PM
but until then............... :clap2:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-21, 09:20 PM


........who would defend this current nonsense in Victoria?

Having recently taken an interest in racing in Hong Kong, I am inclined to the view that RVL is mirroring its 'inflated field - rough result' model, replete with 'presenters' that, while presented with suits and ties and mealy mouths, are all talk with no 'accountable ' action.

The contrast with NSW could not be more stark -- straight-talking presenters -- and Dean and Mark on Melbourne --  is a wake-up call for RVL and their unwatchable tripe on racing.com.

[Note -- even on Saturday M&D included the winner in the first 3 legs of a $200k quadrella and they had 3 legs of a $50k early quadrella  -- both seem to be well-briefed]

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-22, 08:02 PM


SATURDAY LOOMS -- THE ACCEPTANCES PROMISE A DISASTER FOR MOST PUNTERS

RVL administrators warmed up today with a 'lotto' dividend on the quadrella at Bendy-no-go -- 25/1,25/1 and 30/1 in the first 3 legs ....delivering payouts of $70 to 100k ............................to no one.

Saturday looms as a both-states shocker at both Flemington and 'Hawkesbury' (aka Rosehill).

At Flemington, capacity fields, 4 races for immature horses, is another looming disaster for most punters.

.................... there is nothing unexpected about that... you cant say you do not know how RVL plays the game.

It is time for punters to boycott racing in Victoria ... RVL would get a message.......... send one -- bet little!


As for RNSW .......... the carnival is over...............a regional club given a 'standalone' cannot resist the temptation to go for broke in the pursuit of turnover  ........... punters betting on a tight track, suited to leaders, but not to inflated fields, will be at a distinct disadvantage....... the fields are 'capacity 16s' and, read against the form guide, the racing will be 'unfair' .

......... we are addicted ... it will be Saturday ........ we will ante up........ we will lose again........we won't learn.

Remember that betting online, 'one cent' is the minimum live-stake .......one cent would have 'paid' $2000 last Saturday on the RVL quadrella.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Apr-22, 08:15 PM
Correction idiot,

50c is the minimum live stake but you can have 1c on one combo or all 50... and anything in between.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-22, 08:44 PM


......... one-cent is the minimum 'live bet'
on an 'exotic' option, albeit with a minimum 50-cent stake being the minimum total bet.


................... when you are almost certain to lose ... and you know so.......... it is nearly as much fun to enjoy the live feed  and 'win' as it is to lose.

Punters having a bet on the lot , on Saturday, may be entertained  for the afternoon (and before) but they will lose ......the lot.

Remember, a one-cent 'win bet' on the RVL quadrella last Saturday was entitled to a $2000 dividend.

Short of a well-deserved boycott of 'inflated field' racing -- just bet little and enjoy the free feed -- RVL will get a clear message.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Apr-22, 08:49 PM
Suggestion,

Do what is ''necessary" to expect to win.

If you don't have the ability to put yourself in this position - do something else.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-Apr-22, 09:29 PM
Fours  , Rarely have I seen such a succinct description of another person such as yours of Mair . "Idiot " you have nailed it . Nothing else needs to be added.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Apr-22, 09:54 PM
gunbower,

I actually don't like using the term. I have debated Winner on the soap box in a congenial and civil manner and both of us have rarely referred to the word and not in a serious manner. Winner is a smart fellow worthy of debating with.

However Peter here is an exception. And the word is very well earned and warranted. I think it is why it is tolerated by the powers that be for that reason.

My concern is that people new to the site would be put off by the utter crap Peter is espousing over and over. I had absolutely no problem with Peter giving his view every now and then but week after week it is not on. It is an abuse.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Apr-22, 10:39 PM

................... when you are almost certain to lose ... and you know so.......... it is nearly as much fun to enjoy the live feed  and 'win' as it is to lose.


Your above quote is actually quite scary.

You are mentally ill.
You need to get help.
Go get help.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-22, 10:43 PM

..... there are facts, and comparative facts, needing to be addressed when race outcomes routinely, and predictably, defy exposed form and SP market expectations.

Always saying 'shee'l be right' and that what happened,  'against the odds', was OK is pandering to those that profit unfairly from the rough racing.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-26, 11:44 AM


Victorian virus kills its racing – and in Sydney yesterday as well.

The kennel-klub-kids would have ‘got’ the Melbourne quadrella yesterday but it was a close run thing.

They would not have got much else, apart from being skinned in the early races – and if they bet on Sydney, ignoring the warning, they would have got fleeced after RNSW borrowed a spare set of wide-combs from RVL.

What more can one say – check if acceptances on Wednesday are inflated ---- if so, put the wallet away.

Talk about being on-the-money!

Saturday looms as a both-states shocker at both Flemington and 'Hawkesbury' (aka Rosehill).

And shockers they were.

RVL delivered on-cue -- F4 ‘lotto dividends’ all day and a $30k early quadrella (all creamed by the syndicates) – the little guys got done, none again. No learners, slow learners – still they back up.

In Sydney, RNSW inflated the fields and took the little guys to the cleaners big time – not even Monty can beat decks stacked like that.

The present model of racing administration has corrupted the racing entertainment punters pay for......... what is happening is not right, known to be not right –  no one is calling it out.

        Journalists in the racing media are making a shameful mockery of their profession.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-26, 02:27 PM


Media reports on Melbourne -- a Racenet commentator offered:

It was a close battle between punters and bookies with only the three outright favourites winning, but only the one blowout result with Kuramae starting at $41. Vow And Declare gave bookies a result as did Prezado but otherwise punters weren’t far off the mark.

There is more to the story -- an additional 'blowout' was a wart-second at 33/1 in the 6th and the early Quadrella paid some 27k..

There are more than winners in the races:  F4 dividends declared included six of the 8 paying over $5,000, --- in order 60k, 35k, 18k, 12k ,6k and 5k. Other exotics would be similarly illustrative of 'bookies take all'

Noe of what happened is anywhere near 'close' in the punters .v bookies arena.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Apr-26, 02:40 PM
IDIOT,

I got a share of most of them  but I never look at the tipsters poll for a start.

I do all of my own work from beginning to end.

A life lesson for you - don't expect anything good in life achievement wise if you insist on being spoon fed almost everything and are bone lazy.

Try doing what is necessary instead.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-26, 08:13 PM


................'fore' .........another wild shot at any sensible head

There is a clutch of contributors I identify as the 'kkk' ----- always winning on days when no other individual would be likely to have broken square.... and most lost the lot, as usual.

My target audience is not this 'kkk' clan.

...cop fours about yesterday's 'lotto' F4s in Melbourne:

   
                I got a share of most of them  but I never look at the tipsters poll for a start.


.......... not just yesterday .....  I  hope the kkk's swap race analysis of a rare standard of expertise..

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Apr-26, 09:07 PM
Peter,

You lack the ability to cope with big fields and there are plenty of punters in the same boat.

However you err in two ways being

1) your inability is your problem and not the racing administrators.

2) you doubly err in repeating your claims that big fields are the problem  week after week after week when you are wrong. This is an abuse and why you have
     drawn my ire and the IDIOT tag given your inability to learn.

The Victorian administrators run the MC carnival characterised by big fields - none bigger than the MC and this carnival is the envy of the entire world.


So just who is likely to be wrong about this Peter? Those running a carnival marvelled at and envied by the rest of the world - or your weekly rants?

Hong Kong routinely has 12 horse fields and duet pools in the millions for same. Sydney racing with its generally smaller fields is lucky to have duet pools in the thousands. Seems that millions of people are voting with their $$$$ to say you are wrong Peter.

Fours



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-26, 09:54 PM


Just who is 'fours' ------- show your hand!


For some years now I have been warning punters to stay well clear of any racing run in Melbourne in October and November.

.................there is no worse prospect for punters  ..... caught up in the hype ...........of nonsense like this:

The Victorian administrators run the MC carnival characterised by big fields - none bigger than the MC and this carnival is the envy of the entire world.


The MC no longer commands national icon status --- more likely to be derided as raffle-racing promoted by a crowd of dare-to-be-greats at RVL -- popular only as a drunken day out for 'flutterers' ......and a killing field for the corporates and syndicates.

Foe me, cup-week, and cup-day in particular, are ranked among the worst betting options on the RVL calendar.

In recent years I have gone to cant-bet France -- ahead of November --- to distance temptation.

Cup-crap aside, RVL is responsible for, dividend-evidenced, tripe now being dished up every Saturday .. to say nothing of mid-week metropolitan racing that no sensible person would even bother to look at a form-guide.

As for Hong Kong ......... consider today ......... a spot-on, and disgraceful, illustration of inflated-field races exploiting punters.




Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-27, 08:12 AM
I fancied Kuramae. Why wouldn’t you.
Sadly I didn’t back it to win🥵
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: nemisis on 2020-Apr-27, 08:55 AM
Funny thing about Kuramae, she had a 100% record at the track and distance before the race and she now has a 100% record after the race.........how strange!

Stranger for me was Dadoozdart, before the the race had 4 wins on wet ground, none on good ground, and goes around at a $3.5 favourite .....first run in the country......at Flemington?????.... on  a fairly firm track.......he couldn't even bet home my $100 shot!

What on earth could a "tipster" have known about Dadoozdart, other than what 'someone' may have told them?

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-27, 01:45 PM
Nem, are we thinking the same $100 that I backed as well and was dead stiff not to go close to winning?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-28, 09:31 PM

Looking ahead to Saturday -- voting early, no need to vote often

Punters not already wary of betting at the Kensington track in Sydney, will be on Sunday morning.

As for the racing in Melbourne -- at Ladbrokes Park Lakeside -- the name on the track is an omen -- and the prospects for getting it right on a likely heavy track are further diminished.

A 'winter of discontent' for punters is upon us -- having one-cent 'live' is an available bet option.

...... enjoy the entertainment ......have a small interest on outcomes ... smile, whatever the outcome.

........state premiers should be lobbied to allow cinemas and other spectator sorts to re-open and be played ,  allowing punters, 'isolated and bored',  relief from the risk of over-spending on 'bets' reflecting their cultural addiction and being exploited.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Apr-29, 07:30 PM


Saturday will be a killing field -- Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney -- inflated fields and wet tracks.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-04, 06:05 PM

Quadrella dividends answer quality questions quickly

Big quadrella dividends are a sure sign that most customers were taken for a rough ride.

Consider Eu-choker today ------- both quadrellas paid $13,000 as fits big fields of low-grade horses.

On Saturday the standout was Adelaide -- the Q's paid 35k and 7k --and, apart from inflated fields the race times and the results -- Jungle Edge -- indicated a 'heavy' track when 'soft' was the official rating.

[On the broadcast front, it now looks like a deal has been done to link R.Com with CH7 ..........and putting the 3 loser regimes -- Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane -- in the low-quality box along with adding BruceMcV to the unwatchable team commentators.]
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-04, 06:26 PM
After Mair told everyone to stay away from Sydney & Melbourne last week it’s hilarious he has waited till today and only talks about Echuca in hindsight

No mention that he was wrong again about Saturday with skinny quaddie dividends and favoured horses dominating both meetings

$1400
$1700
$2000
$1100

  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-04, 06:51 PM


On Saturday the standout was Adelaide -- the Q's paid 35k and 7k --and, apart from inflated fields the race times and the results -- Jungle Edge -- indicated a 'heavy' track when 'soft' was the official rating.

Would you like to tell us the "standard time for 1100mt" at Morp ?
34.46 seconds for the last 600mts , hardly cries out heavy track to me especially when he lead the race.
Happy for you to correct me
Cheers
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-04, 07:04 PM


34.46 seconds for the last 600mts

This time published was most likely a mistake.

The typical last-600s on Saturday at Adelaide were in excess of 36 seconds and the overall times indicative of a heavy track.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-04, 07:48 PM

34.46 seconds for the last 600mts

This time published was most likely a mistake.

The typical last-600s on Saturday at Adelaide were in excess of 36 seconds and the overall times indicative of a heavy track.
you didn't answer the question
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-04, 08:02 PM


........ just tell me

Why would I answer a question when you know the answer.

The 34.5 time published is incorrect -- that is the relevant question today.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-04, 08:14 PM

........ just tell me

Why would I answer a question when you know the answer.

The 34.5 time published is incorrect -- that is the relevant question today.
you didn't answer the question
and if the time is wrong , can you show me who said it is wrong ? (other than you)
cheers 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-04, 08:19 PM
https://www.theracessa.com.au/files/12766_morp020520.pdf

Stewards report from that meeting.
Would you like to call them liars?
As you are calling me.
Answer the question, WHO  decided it was a heavy track
cheers
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-04, 08:29 PM
Stewards report extract
Part 1 RACE 8: TAB CLASSIC (Group 1) - 1200 Metres
SUNLIGHT (B. Vorster) - raced very wide for the first 600 to 700 metres of the event before
crossing to take closer order to the field. When questioned, rider explained, earlier in the day, he
and Trainer Mr T. McEvoy walked the track in the vicinity of the home turn and near the 600
metres, and formed the view there was ground available wider on the track that had not been
galloped on and was fresh and as a consequence, his instructions were to attempt to take up a
forward position in running but not to cross to the field and remain wide on the track and only
cross to the field near the 500 metres. He added he complied with those instructions however,
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-04, 08:32 PM
Stewards report extract
Part 1 RACE 8: TAB CLASSIC (Group 1) - 1200 Metres
SUNLIGHT (B. Vorster) - raced very wide for the first 600 to 700 metres of the event before
crossing to take closer order to the field. When questioned, rider explained, earlier in the day, he
and Trainer Mr T. McEvoy walked the track in the vicinity of the home turn and near the 600
metres, and formed the view there was ground available wider on the track that had not been
galloped on and was fresh and as a consequence, his instructions were to attempt to take up a
forward position in running but not to cross to the field and remain wide on the track and only
cross to the field near the 500 metres. He added he complied with those instructions however,

Part 2
RACE 8: TAB CLASSIC (Group 1) - 1200 Metres (Cont’d)
when crossing to take up closer order to the field near the 500 metres, the mare was under
pressure, was disappointing and failed to finish the event off as expected. Co-Trainer Mr T. McEvoy
confirmed he and jockey B. Vorster had walked that part of the track together earlier in the day,
and also confirmed the instructions provided. A post-race veterinary examination revealed no
visible abnormalities.

all i can see is one trainer and jockey getting the track conditions wrong

not one remark in the stewards report about horses failing due to track conditions .
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-04, 08:36 PM
so as always you make up stuff to suit your own agenda.

TELL THE TRUTH
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-May-04, 09:13 PM

You are mentally ill.
You need to get help.
Go get help.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-04, 09:36 PM



......... replay the race................use your stopwatch..........tell me the time
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-04, 09:48 PM


............ anyone keen to be betting-up on the quadrella at the .....'bool on Wednesday?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-04, 09:52 PM
the results -- Jungle Edge -- indicated a 'heavy' track when 'soft' was the official rating.



So, it was clearly a heavy track because Jungle Edge won?

That’s your contention
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-04, 10:25 PM


.............  wi-lee-not, the time posted was not correct ......and the Jungle winning is indicative.

You know how to check the time with a stop-watch.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-04, 11:12 PM


No redemption in the Hong Kong model

..........fanciful is any hope that a redeemer of 'fair racing' is alive and well in the administration of HK racing.

. ............what is happening in HK racing is not just or right in assessing the way ahead.

I can only think that local racing administrators are convinced that the end is nigh, as it is in Europe,   and they are going for broke against the remnants of a loyal customer base before it is 'all over neddy rover'.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-05, 08:00 AM

.............  wi-lee-not, the time posted was not correct ......and the Jungle winning is indicative.

You know how to check the time with a stop-watch.


Why is the Jungle winning indicative of a heavy track
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-05, 09:10 AM
Peter,

You claim your audience is the poor punters or so called victims losing week in and week out but Peter why would they pay one iots of attention to you given that :-

1) you claim to lose nearly all of the time due to influences beyond your control including yourself.

2) you need to rely on tips from others ie you have not got a clue

3) you need to leave the country during the MC carnival as you are a degenerate gambler who cant control himself

4) you claim it is impossible to win in big fields but totally ignore tips on roughies that show a profit and tips on favourites that show a profit given before the race start right here.

5) You claim that the horses at rough prices cause interference that prevent the favourites from winning - I gave the pre race tip of a $125.00 horse that was prevented from winning due to interference. The favs showed a profit - again you are wrong on all counts.

6) You are appear to be totally in the dark that it is mistakes in pricing that when found can lead to profits. This is in fact more common in larger fields.

7) The biggest betting nations in the world such as HK routinely have big fields - millions of people via their $$$ down prove you are wrong.

8) Parliament legislated to get rid of you because you are so bad.

So Peter What makes you think that any sane person would take your advice?

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: nemisis on 2020-May-05, 10:17 AM
Fours, you need to put the Midterm thing to bed now.

You wouldn't have been the only person who thought $126 was too generous ......a son of Galileo, whose wet track form while maybe not excellent......pretty close to it!

I had a peanut each-way myself only......not because of your tip but because I had a few more peanuts on him the week before......I'm just glad I took a couple of $1 Quinellas with the favs.
Absolutely no way that Midterm was unlucky and should have won......Inverloch, as the leader was there to be beaten the whole race.

Just for accuracy you did tip 2 horses in that race so it is a bit hard to work out what you are expected to do with 2  longshot tips to show a decent profit.
Credit to you because Haky did run well and won at his next start .
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-05, 11:07 AM
nemisis,

What you are saying is actually my point.

Midterm and Haky in the ready zone which ANYONE could see.

Absolutely no need for inside information which Peter claims is needed.

You have to do some work of course.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-05, 01:57 PM
Boys, Mair doesn’t respond to questions as he knows he’s wrong

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-05, 07:30 PM


There is growing concern that the kennel-club-kids may need a top-up of their distemper inoculations -- ahead of that, a course of the renowned 'bob-martins' conditioning tablets may very well help.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-May-05, 08:03 PM
How dare you use that abbreviation about anyone you piece of crap. You are old enough to readily know its significance.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-05, 08:59 PM


.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-May-05, 09:16 PM
More than that ; you have probably inadvertently  revealed that you are not scraping the bottom of the barrel as far as human behavior is concerned ; you are actually festering under it. Anyone who finds themselves endeared with a group such as the one you have alluded to is simply a maggot. You are just a pitiful excuse for a human being. Smarter minds had the good sense to rid themselves of you years ago ; the same should happen here.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-05, 09:29 PM

................. the kennel kids are an identifiable club....... mean minded ......
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: sobig on 2020-May-05, 10:41 PM
Peter, the site has not stopped you voicing your opinions but enough of the "hooded' carry on.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-06, 09:58 AM

Why is the Jungle winning indicative of a heavy track


Care to answer Peter?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-06, 03:08 PM

Big Win

.................for global beneficiaries of inflated-field racing and loser-only customers

Merger of Sportsbet and BetEasy : £10 billion merger of the owners of Sportsbet and BetEasy

Flutter, the owners of Paddy Power and associated brands Betfair and Sportsbet, officially merged with The Stars Group, the owner of BetEasy.

The merger of Flutter and The Stars Group would result in Sportsbet eventually gaining up to a quarter share in the Australian online gambling market.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-06, 06:12 PM

Peter Mair, Why is the Jungle winning indicative of a heavy track?

I’ll answer for you Peter seeing as you can’t

For those just tuning in. Mair used Jungle Eagle as as reason to justify a his claims of a heavy rather than slow track.
Peter clearly thinks JE is a heavy track specialist & didn’t back him for that reason


Well, the trainer disagrees with you Peter & the stats make to look a bigger goose

JE on a slow track is 34 starts 11 wins & 11 placings. He loves a slow track and him winning does, clearly, NOT, support your claim


Yet another example of him being incapable of reading a form guide   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-06, 06:36 PM

Wonderbool flatfaced  on the flat

Today the hyped Wonderbool carnival became another sad reflection on RVL and inflated field racing  -- and another rout of the pockets of punters who bought the talk and punted up.

Quadrellas 'paying' $11k and $3k were flanked by F4s 'paying' $ 15k, 2x8k, a7k and a 5k -- a disgrace.

-- and Saturday looms

No need for me to reveal the portents of inflated fields on Saturday, across the board -- see for your self:

        https://racingaustralia.horse/home.aspx?standard=true

Post-mortem on Sunday.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-06, 06:46 PM
here is something interesting i read on twitter today , posted by a leading racing person (not PM)

 At Flemington fields normally “limited”to 16 but safety limit is 18 for most. In G1 races down straight they run 24 v 16. Assume at Warrnambool safety limit is 16 but for most non features they run 14. Optimum field for betting is 12 and any above that doesn’t increase turnover.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-06, 07:25 PM

..... it must be fair as well as safe

It does not surprise me that beneficiaries of inflated fields demand and make decisions that benefit themselves.

As an entertainment that relies on most punting customers to pay the freight, racing needs to be fair as well as safe.

.................as is, and as is confirmed daily, inflated-field racing is unfair to most punters -- the industry is betting that the freight bills will continue to be paid by people with a cultural affection and addiction to the game.

...... those not  yet so culturally committed would be well advised to stay well clear of an unfair game.

.......... I was led down the path in the 50s by my grandparents ....and gladly kept walking on for decades ......... there is no way I would now so 'mislead' my 11 grandchildren ........ I say 'do not go there'.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-06, 08:59 PM
Well let’s hope your grandkids don’t read this. You’ve embarrassed yourself constantly  :tin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-06, 09:35 PM


.......the converse applies...... like Pavlov's dogs, given a bone of contention, you always break teeth.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-10, 10:33 AM


Punters played off a break -- again -- as usual


Race results yesterday show how inflated fields compromise the integrity of racing.

The irrelevance of Adelaide racing was writ large ----- a truly disgraceful story written in the dividends declared  ... the winner of the SA Derby was some 6 months younger than the locally bred runners-up.

On the Melbourne front, a master-in-lunacy should be asking why punters have no relevant memory of what happened the previous Saturday .......... and the others before that back to the decision to pay 'too much' for running 10th   --- horses starting at 'should-not-be-there' odds are getting $2,000 to $3,000+ for passing 'go'.

That is just plain wrong -- what is in the Yarra water.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-May-10, 12:16 PM
You must swim in it
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-10, 08:19 PM


The good , the bad .....and the mainly, very ugly

Racing industry administrators have done more than anyone might have imagined to put policies in place that substitute 'take out' funding for fair racing ---- so deposing true pari-mutuel totes (and Betfair) from ensuring a fair-go for most punters.

These guys hate results that expose their duplicity, especially in big events.

............they seem inclined to substitute 'integrity' penalties on participants for their own blatant disregard of the administrative counterpart in delivering 'fair racing'.

Consider this litany of the 'good' and the 'questionable' from yesterday:

Russian Camelot’s jockey John Allen earned a careless riding suspension for his winning ride on the Danny O’Brien-trained colt in Saturday’s Group I South Australian Derby.

               
Peter Moody returns a winner.........given a perfect ride by Moody’s long-time jockey Luke Nolen, “It was nice to have Luke there today and do the job for us, he’s been a big part of my career and if he keeps riding them like that he’ll be a bigger part going forward.”


Michelle Payne  Racing Victoria stewards have fined dual licence holder Michelle Payne for having therapeutic products and sealed syringes in her possession at a race meeting last month.

Tommy Berry, who rode the impressive Masked Crusader to victory, only returned to the saddle from a week on the sidelines on Wednesday but again had a case to answer for after his ride on the Mark Newnham-trained Celestial Falls.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-10, 09:02 PM
Care to expand on those 4 instances?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-10, 09:24 PM


........... just one.... for the moment

........... in winning the 'cup', Michelle Payne delivered the magical racing moment of the century so far ..........  shafting all that is not-right about Australian racing  -- so doing, dealt a telling blow against any hopes RVL still held about keeping the 'cup' an enduring icon of Australian racing and pretending it could ever stand on an international stage.

RVL will be forced to return the 'cup' to Australia for runners trained locally.

Michelle Payne, loved by TAB punters,  will never be forgiven by RVL administrators...... not even welcome to ride or train runners in Sydney.

.... all the toys propelled out of the cot.


 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-10, 09:39 PM

........... just one.... for the moment


Michelle Payne, loved by TAB punters,  will never be forgiven by RVL administrators...... not even welcome to ride or train runners in Sydney.

Peter you are lying again Michelle rode in Sydney 19th October 2019
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-10, 09:49 PM
Peter you are lying again Michelle rode in Sydney 19th October 2019

oh she was the trainer as well .  Time to retire old mate 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-May-10, 10:00 PM
have a lie down you silly old coot
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-10, 10:31 PM


..... the kennel-kids are not even fair minded


4 years is a while before a first drink.

....... meantime, MP came to Sydney to ride in 2016 and was not given a mount.

The record of 'administrative discretion' is 'for me' and against kennel-klub kish-kickers .

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-10, 10:35 PM


.......... I am pleased that the kennel-kids did not even recognize the implied slight to the 'winxked'.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-11, 08:12 AM
“Michelle Payne  Racing Victoria stewards have fined dual licence holder Michelle Payne for having therapeutic products and sealed syringes in her possession at a race meeting last month.”


So Peter are you  telling us that the Michelle Payne situation is a set up by RVL, a phoney case?

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-11, 08:29 AM


Racing industry policy and NSW politicians



............. one future appointment is on hold for now.

Troy Grant -- a former racing minister --  is in the mix to take over as Racing Australia chief executive following the exit of Barry O’Farrell. The former premier was appointed High Commissioner to India last year.



........ ....... this snippet in the SMH this morning reveals another close connection of former NSW racing ministers and the racing industry ........  only regional politicians can be 'racing ministers' in NSW and, as I see the alliance, racing funds, raised on the back of metropolitan racing, generously subsidize rural racing that is not viable on its commercial merits. Former NSW racing ministers are also popular as members of the RNSW board.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-11, 01:33 PM
“Michelle Payne  Racing Victoria stewards have fined dual licence holder Michelle Payne for having therapeutic products and sealed syringes in her possession at a race meeting last month.”


So Peter are you  telling us that the Michelle Payne situation is a set up by RVL, a phoney case?

Peter???
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-11, 09:03 PM


Is Michelle Payne seen as a Lindy or a Sindy

*Due to the unacceptable comments of some readers Racenet has decided to turn the comments off for this article.

...... what was the balance of expressed opinion before Racenet pulled the plug?  ......... was this a discretionary (or mandatory) offense?........... how did the stewards 'know' to look in the bag?

...... pulling the plug on ignorant comments may suggest the prejudice was inclined to convict 'Sindy' .... if so, what does that say?


Stewards concluded their inquiry at Ballarat on Friday. The stewards noted Jukila produced clear samples from the day, showing the products had not been used on the horse.

However, stewards fined Payne $1000 for negligence for having the products in her possession at the races.

Stewards noted Payne pleaded guilty to the charge and gave forthright evidence during their investigation and the products were therapeutic items.

However, bringing the items to the races without the written permission of stewards was an offence under the rules of racing.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-11, 09:14 PM

Not happy coppers: Was the discretion, to not charge, open to the stewards at Geelong?


The dual licence holder pleaded guilty to a charge under AR227(a) in that her negligence led to a breach of the rules.

“In assessing penalty, Stewards took into account her guilty plea, her record, and her forthright evidence throughout the investigation; and also considered that whilst the products were of a therapeutic nature, bringing them and the syringes to the racecourse or in a motor vehicle used for the purpose of transporting a horse to a race meeting, without the Stewards written permission, was nonetheless a contravention of AR251.

“The Stewards were satisfied on the evidence available to them, including a cleared post-race blood sample from Jukila, that none of the mentioned substances were administered to Jukila in contravention of the Rules.”
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-12, 08:49 AM
Good news for Michelle  :thumbsup:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-12, 05:48 PM
Prayers answered?

https://twitter.com/riracing/status/1260014563870695426

Cant be worse than the legislated ''get lost'' one.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-12, 06:21 PM
Does Mair have Twitter, let’s hope not  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-12, 07:32 PM

Check with Dick

If there is a phone in the kennel, check with Dick about tomorrow -- big fields of low-grade runners are portents of issues about which a new punters club may want to to protest.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-12, 07:53 PM
Is Dick a stupid F

I think not
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-13, 12:03 PM

Ganders and gooses -- which sources inform the charges about what offences

........... a couple of s-a commentators are about to be slow roasted at a stewards barbque.

.............charges under AR228 for conduct detrimental to the interests of racing............AR228(a) states a person must not engage in conduct prejudicial to the image, interests, integrity, or welfare of racing, whether or not that conduct takes place within a racecourse or elsewhere.

Speaking for myself, nothing worse has been done, to compromise the integrity and long-term interests of the racing industry, than the decision to inflate race fields with hopers-for-10th.

....... bring to book those directly and indirectly responsible for this offensive policy.............along with giving a clear regulatory direction to the racing media that it is to assess fairly and report frankly on product policies detrimental to the fair-chances of most punters.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Wenona on 2020-May-13, 04:58 PM
Remember when Pete gets on he'll be pushing his brightest idea ......



Quote from: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-05, 06:58  PM


    I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-13, 05:19 PM


Guess what -- inflated fields wrought havoc for punters today

 ............ and,across the board, the portents for the quadrella races on Saturday are frightening  --- RVL will wrap up the day with two 1400 raffle-races with full fields.

... ....conversely fixed-odds bookmakers (and syndicates getting rebates) had a very good day today and they will be lining up to line their pockets again on Saturday.

Today was a shocker ----RVL's quadrella 'paid' some $100,000 --  RNSW's some $15,000 and RQL's $25,000

Still waiting for news about the new punters action group response to yesterdays question:

..................check with Dick about tomorrow -- big fields of low-grade runners are portents of issues about which a new punters club may want to to protest.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-13, 06:24 PM
Remember when Pete gets on he'll be pushing his brightest idea ......



Quote from: Peter Mair on 2020-Jan-05, 06:58  PM


    I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.



The most idiotic thing anyone has ever said on this forum, even for Pete
  :lol:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-13, 07:15 PM


The quest for fair racing -- no ordinary 'wallah' calls for fair racing.

Chris Waller: Let's hope Eagle Farm is up to standard for winter carnival

“I’m hoping that the Eagle Farm track is up to standard ............. Waller told Racenet............ in the past it hasn’t been ideal............... just given false promises that it will be OK.

I think that is so important for fair racing ..................


The Eagle farm track is not the only track that can be routinely 'unfair' -- especially if the fields are inflated  with 10th-hopers and the races are run over distances notorious for 'barriers being critical'.

... as for the Brisbane carnival ...the probabilities are that RQL will go for broke, inflating the fields to boost turnover but making the punting-product unfair for most.

[PS -- the apparent inclination of a not-wily one to pump up my tyres is probably not his intention -- the compliments are nonetheless welcome -- on current form he could be a minister for racing in NSW.]






Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-13, 08:21 PM

Cop this tripe

The Victorian Government has stumped up more than $16 million to aid the state’s racing industry’s recovery from the Covid-19 disaster.

Racing has continued behind closed doors during the crisis but jobs have been lost off the track with race clubs, particularly in provincial areas, feeling the impact of no crowds being on track.


............. any suggestion that there were, or will be  'crowds on track' ...conjures images of 'musta been dreamin'.

If RVL had any genuine understanding of its plight, it would basically sack everyone, on the board,  in the administration and  on the R-not-com media team.

.......... some could possibly be saved by a full confession of the damage they have done  ..... and a vow to stop inflating race fields with 'hopers for 10th'.

............................ one stupid decision, denying its history,  put RVL on the skids to oblivion.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-13, 08:47 PM


URGENT -- has anyone been in touch with Dick?

This is Richard Irvine's story -- (circa 2013):

Gambling is an equal chance to win and equal chance to lose, says Richard Irvine, a professional punter who lives in Sydney. It is about a fair bet.


.. ..............the story is updated ..... circa today 2020

Punters’ advocate Richard Irvine joins us to discuss his proposal for a Punters Union that would represent the rights of punters.

    Why now?
    How will the Punters Union look?
    What’s in it for the state racing authorities?
    What are the topics that will be raised? Is everything on the table?
    Is it just discussion or are we looking for meaningful changes?
    Will bookies be involved?
    How will representatives be elected?
    Has there been any engagement from state racing authorities?


After some 7 years in the wilderness, it is very timely for Dick, as the head of a new 'punters union', to come in from the cold, to let us know what he has in his head to address critical issues facing the racing industry.

................ he has the support of the powerful kennel club and it wily spokesman.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-13, 09:07 PM

Cop this tripe

The Victorian Government has stumped up more than $16 million to aid the state’s racing industry’s recovery from the Covid-19 disaster.



Well done to the Vic Giverment  :biggrin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-13, 10:22 PM


Hit your Scone hard  -- before you bet on  Friday

                        knockout best ..................... or you will have nothing left to lose on a Sconed Saturday.

The insanity police will be recording evidence of those betting on the Scone races on Friday:

                     https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/scone-20200515/all-races

.......anyone backing up on Saturday, squandering the family inheritance, may well be arrested as a self-protection situation.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-14, 09:52 PM

Inflated fields:  pre-post consensus v.  post-race outcomes



Looking ahead to Saturday, for most races in Sydney and Melbourne, there is a credible consensus across the published selections of three industry players: Racenet, Punters.com.au and Sportsbet.

I have no doubt that the 'tips' are soundly professionally sourced and sincerely offered -- as are  'tips' posted by individuals claiming expertise, and across racing-media panels more generally.

These guys 'do the form', call it as they see it -- but are often mocked by the race outcomes

Post race-mocking of most of this 'input' -- against the 'output' of reality -- may reflect apparent incompetence of some contributors but it also begs the question of why do they all get it so wrong so often.

These players, playing sincerely, are routinely embarrassed come race day.

On race day itself, race results, however rough, are immediately proclaimed by broadcasters  'the correct outcome' --- sometimes it is obvious that a crowded field denied a 'should-have-won' unfairly -- dismissed as 'bad-luck' .......but there is no complaint aired about 'inflated fields'.

The only 'accredited' racing media players run with blinkers and tongue ties -- any failure to run as so directed, would see their accreditation removed (aka cut off the feed).

........................ we lament the suppression of a free-press in dictatorial regimes -- Russia and China et al, et al -- but blandly accept that the racing media in Australia is so similarly and so brutally suppressed.

........ we all know this is not right ........ but no one on the affected payroll can say so ..... not only would they lose their job ........they would expose their failure to speak frankly  previously.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-14, 10:08 PM

Inflated fields:  pre-post consensus v.  post-race outcomes



Looking ahead to Saturday, for most races in Sydney and Melbourne, there is a credible consensus across the published selections of three industry players: Racenet, Punters.com.au and Sportsbet.

I have no doubt that the 'tips' are soundly professionally sourced and sincerely offered -- as are  'tips' posted by individuals claiming expertise, and across racing-media panels more generally.

These guys 'do the form', call it as they see it -- but are often mocked by the race outcomes

Post race-mocking of most of this 'input' -- against the 'output' of reality -- may reflect apparent incompetence of some contributors but it also begs the question of why do they all get it so wrong so often.




  :biggrin:   :lol:   :lol:  :


Hey Pete, what happened, you get tapped on the shoulder ?  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-15, 08:54 AM


Saturday will be interesting -- especially the RVL offering

The tipping polls, in the SMH, for Sydney and Melbourne show a consensus around few live chances in most races.

On the face of it the races should run true to form -- we will see.

3 or 4 runners are conceded a good chance in Races 8 and 9 at Flemington -- to be run over 1400 with 14 starters  ----  hold your breath.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-17, 02:43 PM


Inflated-field racing: instructive and illustrative results

Put aside the simply appalling reflection on Adeliade racing administrators for staging unfair races with inflated fields -- just make a note to put aside this low-grade racing and its administrators.

The results at the RVL meeting were consistent with the routine display of RVL administrators serving up inflated-field product so degraded as to be an affront to punters and participants denied a fair run for their money.

Apart from a $40,000 F4, four others averaged $8,000 and the quadrellas paid 3k and 6k.

Sadly also, on the face of it,  Sydney racing similarly showed the consequences of inflating fields beyond the limits of gair-go racing  -- a $44,000 F4 and three others averaged some $14,000.

.. .........even so small fields kept the earlyQ dividend to some $50 and favoured runners kept the Quadrella to $500.

As for -- 'can-tip but does not write' -- Monty, he included the winner of every Sydney race in his Top5  (mainly in his two-top selections)..... the contrast with Melbourne is stark, he missed 3 winners completely. 

There is something going very wrong with Melbourne metropolitan racing -- and those that should be saying and writing this loudly and clearly apparently can't and won't.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-17, 03:53 PM
Loudly and clearly.....

THERE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE


BIG FIELD RACING IN VICTORIA!


Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-17, 08:20 PM


Thanks 'fores'

                           ...... loudly, proudly, clearly and colorfully... could not have said it better myself.

......... appreciate the support you, and the kennel-club kids, are providing for my quest for fair racing.

You may like to add your voice to the problems with Hong Kong racing  ........ once considered model administrators, the prevailing nonsense is substituting  a marketing focus on a Zac and Joao rivalry for the reality of inflated fields rorting most punters. Check the F4s. Tell us to stay away!

Keep the campaign running fores, punters risk being hit in the wallet by rouge balls fired from the administrators bunkers.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-May-17, 08:33 PM

Thanks 'fores'
You may like to add your voice to the problems with Hong Kong racing  ........ once considered model administrators, the prevailing nonsense is substituting  a marketing focus on a Zac and Joao rivalry for the reality of inflated fields rorting most punters. Check the F4s. Tell us to stay away!

surely your not that  :censored: en brain dead ?
they don't have first 4's in Hong Kong
look at the pool sizes FFS 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-17, 09:23 PM
Now he’s supporting more big field racing in Victoria.  :lol:

Mair the jibberer  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-17, 10:11 PM


[b                 ]........ Australian racing administrators will take a free ride on anything,[/b]


The advantage of F4s in HK, for local punters, is that the TAB 'take' is lower than the rort TABs take when 'mingling up'.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-18, 02:37 PM


The science of successful Sunday-morning tipping


.........taken from Michael Lewis:

   
All too often, we find ourselves unable to predict what will happen; yet after the fact we explain what did happen with a great deal of confidence. This ‘ability’ to explain that which we cannot predict … represents an important, though subtle, flaw in our reasoning. It leads us to believe that there is a less uncertain world than there actually is.


What happened in the past was often not predictable either but it is not sensible to go on to use one such unpredictable event to explain another that was not predictable either.

The most useful assessments are made on Wednesdays, before Saturday -- as I routinely do in calling races  'fair and unfair' before they are run.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-18, 05:58 PM
And you are routinely wrong :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-18, 07:34 PM


Just so right

.......the not-wily, rats and fores pump my tyres without fail... just put a bone near the kennel........ 'woof'!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-20, 07:09 PM


The Kensington track is dirty-work -- best avoided when fields are inflated (ie: > eight starters)


Race-fields on the Kensington track would be best kept to 8 runners or less.

This assessment follows another day when the race results on the K track can only be described as 'rough' -- very rough when the Q pays $50,000, an F4 25k and five other F4s pay an average of 6k.


This is not fair to punters 'assured' of a 'great days racing' by all and sundry bound to say so.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-20, 08:21 PM


........ its Wednesday.....acceptances......Saturday looms..... the 'crystal-ball' looks at the fields


Its winter, its raining, the tracks are wet and capacity fields served up again.

Consider the RVL offering at Flemington:

.... it opens with a BM84 over 2500m, some not qualified to carry the weight....... R2&3 over 1400 ....for 2yro and 3yro.... what do you think?....... 4,6&9 are full-fields up the straight.... R5 is a full field of 3yros over 2000m.......R7 is a BM 84 over 1800 with 14 to start and R8 an 'open' with 14 to start over 1600m.

The MN portents for most punters are 'not good' -- masterfully understated... sensibly, stay away.

The virus of inflated fields has hit NSW ........ R9....a BM 78 over 1200m with 14 to start ........ will bring quaddie players undone.

........gentle readers will also sensibly ignore all other racing on Saturday.

                  ..sensible readers will bet light if they must............I must......I will bet light .

 

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-May-20, 10:06 PM


This assessment follows another day when the race results on the K track can only be described as 'rough' -- very rough when the Q pays $50,000, an F4 25k and five other F4s pay an average of 6k.


More lies.

Please add link to show us all this $25k F4 dividend. I'll wait.

Given you quoted a $50k Quad, I'll assume you are referring to NSW tote.

Average F4 pool size there today of $11,576, I'd actually add something in here usually but won't bother as you won't be able to grasp it.

Did chuckle at your uncanny ability to cherry pick your results again to suit your bile-ridden spouting, ignoring the one race ($796.50) that didn't work in your favor.




If you can't add the link to your $25k F4, just let us know which race it was.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-21, 08:24 AM

........ its Wednesday.....acceptances......Saturday looms..... the 'crystal-ball' looks at the fields


Its winter, its raining, the tracks are wet and capacity fields served up again.

Consider the RVL offering at Flemington:

.... it opens with a BM84 over 2500m, some not qualified to carry the weight.......

So you've made a judgement. Don’t back any of them if your “knowledge “ d3crees that.  Personally, I’ve  snapped up the crazy odds on offer on one of those Who’s last start should be forgiven



R2&3 over 1400 ....for 2yro and 3yro.... what do you think?.......no, you tell us beforehand. In R3 who should we not bet on? I see some very talented horses in the field




 4,6&9 are full-fields up the straight.... 14 horses up the straight is not a problem. It’s a big wide open track Peter


[/color]

R5 is a full field of 3yros over 2000m....... so? What’s your point?


R7 is a BM 84 over 1800 with 14 to start

care to expand? Or are you sticking to some vague
, broad brush comment that allows you to spruik nonsense after the race
a



 R8 an 'open' with 14 to start over 1600m.

??

The MN portents for most punters are 'not good' -- masterfully understated... sensibly, stay away.

                  ..sensible readers will bet light if they must............I must......I will bet light .
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-May-21, 04:46 PM
More lies.

Please add link to show us all this $25k F4 dividend. I'll wait.

If you can't add the link to your $25k F4, just let us know which race it was.

Still waiting germ.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-21, 04:59 PM


First Four 9-1-4-12 / Pool First Four $8,065/ $12,485.40 Jackpot $4,358.56 = x2
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-May-21, 05:41 PM

First Four 9-1-4-12 / Pool First Four $8,065/ $12,485.40 Jackpot $4,358.56 = x2

The $12.5k declared dividend has already had the 'multiplication' done to it to account for jackpot amounts/fractional winning tickets to standardize its' display to that of $1.

Why in God's name are you (further) multiplying a declared dividend that always already been multiplied?


Red pill/Blue pill time here

Red pill: You're are an imbecile that cannot (after all this time and self-proclaimed expertise) fathom the maths; or
Blue pill: You're a disingenuous cretin that deliberately distorts facts to sell the story in your head.


Sadly, first time in Red pill/Blue pill history, the player can/should/will take both.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-22, 07:46 PM


WA racing put on a pike -- at the silly end of the spectrum?


The CoVid vacuum has left many with idle time on a wet day.

Extending my glance to tomorrow's Belmont races on a good track, had me wondering about how the punters balance the presence of a Pike in fields, of 16, so inflated as to defy a fair go to any.

.... the pre-post prices put up for most runners say they have no chance ----- what they do have is the ability to be a disruptive and impeding presence for runners there to win.

Framers of markets for WA races, sensibly, never discount mounts of the master -- W.Pike.

...... this mirrors the Purton/Moira situation in HongKong ------- the message is 'NO GO'.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-22, 09:00 PM
So, you couldn’t provide any analysis of Melbourne so you go to Perth and spew your ignorance   :lol:   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-22, 09:16 PM


......  dear 'laughing clown' (as you present yourself)


............ answers to MN-racing questions will be provided by MN-racing results tomorrow.


Similarly, your understanding of WA racing,  will be evident in the WA race results.

.................................. go back to Proverbs 26:11 .........  eat and digest sensibly.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-May-22, 10:22 PM

Red pill: You're are an imbecile that cannot (after all this time and self-proclaimed expertise) fathom the maths; or
Blue pill: You're a disingenuous cretin that deliberately distorts facts to sell the story in your head.


Which pill/s did you end up taking or are you sticking by your imaginary $25k F4?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-23, 07:49 AM
He won’t answer as you caught him lying again
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-24, 09:57 AM


A coincidence of 'rough results' and 'cheating allegations' extends beyond Queensland.

Integrity issues appear to have reached flashpoint in Queensland racing with a cross-section of trainers up in arms - complaining they are not competing on a level playing field and insisting the Queensland Racing Integrity Commission isn't doing enough to stop doping and cheating.

There is similar innuendo around 'unexpected' race outcomes in NSW and Victoria and trainers varying the use of pre-race treatments and other ruses to get runners up or down.

One likely  contributor to this speculation is the policy of running fields inflated with 'hopers-for-10th' that disrupt the fair running of races and provide cover for those 'smoking one in' undercover.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-24, 11:04 AM

Provocatively ill-informed questions answered as predicted

............ answers to MN-racing questions will be provided by MN-racing results tomorrow.............. your understanding of WA racing will be evident in the WA race results.

                 ....................you couldn’t provide any analysis of Melbourne so you go to Perth

Gentle readers now know the disturbingly rough outcomes of races run in Melbourne and Perth yesterday.

Gentle readers might be forgiven for thinking that I rig the 'rough results' -- no so, the ever so predictably rough results are engineered by administrators running inflated fields, chasing the buck at the cost of a fair go for all. No wonder there are conspiracies suggesting 'go fasts' and 'go slows' -- that's what it looks like.

           ................ if you understand racing, you can tell on Wednesday what will happen on Saturday.

 The racing media that should be hammering this administrative nobbling are unable to say a word.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-May-24, 02:48 PM
A link below to Racenet interviews with Trainers and the authorities. I wonder if any of the trainers will face bringing racing into disrepute charges which seems a common occurrence amongst racing bodies across Australia for having a critical opinion or joke at times.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/an-epic-fail--it-s-not-a-level-playing-field---frustrated-qld-trainers-speak-out-over-integrity-conc-20200524

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/qric-commissioner-ross-barnett-responds-to-integrity-concerns-from-qld-trainers-20200524

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-24, 05:21 PM
There was nothing”rough” about Perth on Saturday. Every winner was easily found and validated by form study.
Track played fair and field sizes had zero bearing on results

Mair failed to address any concerns his lack of knowledge may have raised, before or after the races.

All he had to do was enter a discussion rather than his ignorant brain farts 💩

Total failure once again from the self promoting fool  :lol:

The question on everybody’s lips is, “has there ever been a more morally or intellectually bankrupt administrator that Peter Mair?”
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-24, 09:14 PM


................ Proverbs 26:11
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-24, 09:47 PM
Mair wrong again.
 It’s painful to watch
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-25, 07:25 PM




Rampant rorting by connections-- possibly true but most unlikely

Heathcote told Racenet he was certain racing "is not clean here, and it is possibly the worst it has been since I came into racing in 1997". He also said "current working stewards" and other trainers are frustrated at the lack of pre-race testing, which has opened the door for cheats to ramp up their offending.

Those on the ground must be respected when it comes to knowing 'what is going on'.

Conversely, the plain stupidity of taking the risk, that a horse will not be swabbed, pre or post, says that rampant rorting by 'connections' is most unlikely.

Along with many others -- punters, tipsters, owners, trainers and jockeys -- are correct to smell a rat.

................more likely, the explanation of 'inexplicable' outcomes is reflecting the role played by administrators inflating race fields irresponsibly.

Long gone are the days when 'connections' paid to get a run ...........or paying to run in a trial ........these days, those just giving a horse a run can be well rewarded if a 'no hoper' just runs 10th.

The inflated-field policy is so clearly wrong  -- punters, owners, trainers, jockeys and so many 'Mister Ed' talking horses should be calling-out his nonsense.

..... neither they, nor the racing media, can ......all bound to omerta .......... if he could talk, what would Mr Ed say?

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-25, 07:29 PM
Mr Ed would say you are an idiot.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-May-25, 07:41 PM
Mr Ed would say you are an idiot.

Fours

One of your best.  :clap2:

PM, you walked into that by giving an opening.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-May-26, 11:53 AM
One of our resident forumite gets a mention in today’s column by Stephen Brassel.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/robert-heathcote-speaking-out-can-only-be-good-for-racing-in-queensland-20200525
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-26, 12:50 PM
Peter's mention on Shatin,

The claim is that Purton and Moriera were grossly over bet as evidenced by the large number of horses at big prices.

Purton had 10 rides for 4 wins but returned a very very profitable $16.40  - fail on the over bet claim overall accordingly.

Moreiera had 11 rides for 4 wins also returning $16.35 so yet another fail on the claim here as well.

If only racing was this easy week to week - even Peter would have a chance to profit.

Both jockeys had winners over 6/1.

The extremely good win strike rate on the day makes a lie of the claim that the rough prices horses get in the way stopping the favoured ones from winning.

Honk Kong punters make 100/1 mistakes just like aussie punters - and for very similar reasons.

Fours

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-26, 03:41 PM
The hilarious thing is that Mair claims these blokes win too often but strangely enough Mair still can’t win i :lol:

Ditto on his attempt to drag Perth into his brain farts. Pike has a strike rate of 30% on Bob Peters horse but senile Pete  thinks that’s no good   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-26, 03:59 PM


Went the day well -- on Sunday

......... it is probably not correct to think that level stakes bets on the mounts of HK's magic-duo, or Willie Pike, would be profitable over a season.

........... the kennel kids may like to keep the tallies up to date  .....and perhaps report on a little history.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-26, 04:46 PM
Peter, Ive completed my video review of HK from Sunday.


Do you mind telling us which of the 11 races you feel were impacted and how they were impacted by size or quality ?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-26, 05:45 PM
idiot,

You made comments specific to the day.

I addressed those comments for the day.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-27, 05:45 PM
Peter, Ive completed my video review of HK from Sunday.


Do you mind telling us which of the 11 races you feel were impacted and how they were impacted by size or quality ?



It’s noted that Mair can’t backup his claims re Sha Tin.

Cat got your tongue or the dog got ya tail  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-27, 07:22 PM


Sadly punters at Sale today were sold-out – Saturday looms sadly for punters who bet.

.................. by now, you know crystal-ball visions after acceptances ..... do not bet.

.................. read the acceptances and see the implications  ....  do not bet.

Fields, mainly low grade, are ‘inflated’ across the board – a basic warning.

Tracks are ‘affected’ across the nation.

Pike has good book at Belmont (but that is not Ascot).

The jury is out, Doomben is still not Eagle Farm.

                ........you know about Caulfield + RVL.............. Rosehill is best of a bad lot.

C U Sunday ..... for confirmation.

https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2020May30,WA,Belmont&BodyClass=PrintFriendly



https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2020May30%2CVIC%2CCaulfield

https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Form.aspx?Key=2020May30%2CQLD%2CDoomben

https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2020May30%2CNSW%2CRosehill%20Gardens

As Dr Turf once famously wrote ...... if you do not care about losing ..... take notes from your wallet and flush them ...... see how much fun that is ....and then reconsider .......if punters did not open their wallets so readily the administrators would eventually get the message ............... do not bet until they do.




Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-27, 07:53 PM
Idiot,

Pikes win % and ROI are superior at Belmont - not Ascot.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-27, 09:31 PM


Thanks

A level-stakes bet on Zac's mounts at Shatin tonight...... and will do the same with Pike's at Belmont.

.... .............. can never leave them out.

............ what they do is astonishing ......... but expecting it shortens the odds ..... spoils the game.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-28, 10:08 AM

5 in 6 out last night -- so far so good

                                      .............past 12 Months w/p&ROI Stats suggest caution
Joao Moreira
        743:148-116-89   19.9%   47.5%   -12.8%
         
Zac Purton
   771   186   113   107   25%   53%   $4.11   -1%

William Pike
        866    238    27%    485    56%    -13.6%

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-28, 12:19 PM

Integrity of Queensland racing: motes and beams in beholding eyes

Queensland trainers who spoke out to Racenet about integrity issues are expected to have a high-powered meeting with Racing Queensland ...organised by the Queensland branch of the Australian Trainers Association.

 .............prominent trainers ........... who expressed serious integrity concerns around doping and cheating and also the Queensland integrity framework will attend.

The purpose of the meeting................ a discussion around current and future integrity plans and provide an opportunity to air issues with key stakeholders.


Will anyone have the temerity to ask if the rough results could be a consequence of RQ inflating  fields with no-hopers wanting to run 10th  -- implicitly, are inflated fields compromising fairness and integrity?

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: bascoe on 2020-May-28, 01:13 PM
Many of the regular (and formerly regular) contributing readers have had the temerity to ask you to stop repeating this drivel ad nauseam for nearly 2 years, and it doesn't stop you.

You made your point, no one else cares - move on gramps.

You infect many threads with your baseless claims, and this forum is now a wasteland with your incessant ranting being the only constant tumbleweed.

I'll check back again in a few more weeks.

bascoe
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-28, 03:08 PM

you are on hiding to nothing .......come-out into the open

Who are you? ...............your posts suggest a vested interest ........one not about protecting most punters.

The issue is a very real one .... punters are smashed routinely -- someone else is getting their money.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-28, 05:13 PM
Well said Bascoe but the blokes too focking arrogant to realise the damage he has done around here.
The grub doesn’t contribute to any other thread or topic aside from his repetitive brain farts.
The consideration of even entering into a discussion is totally outside of his realm of self absorption 🤮
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-29, 07:40 PM


A shocker --- Saturday looms sadly for punters who bet.

Tomorrows racing is a seasonal 'low day' ------ the fields are stacked to the rafters -- many horses 'accepted' to run should not even be in the fields.

........ this is not right ....  yet administrators spruik 'integrity'.

Perth is racing on a rare 'heavy' track --- forget an all-up on Willie -- just not a sure thing tomorrow.

             ..... reckon down on Sunday  ...... ahead of a Zac and Jo evening.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-29, 07:57 PM
--



 many horses 'accepted' to run should not even be in the fields..


Care to tell us who these horses are prior to the meeting  :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-29, 07:59 PM
Peter,

Kindly list the horses that should not be in the field and why.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-29, 08:19 PM
There you go petey
, a chance to enter into a discussion. Are you up for it?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-29, 09:13 PM

Look and you shall see

            ......... those 'not wanted' are listed in pre-post markets for race-fields.

What is not shown, in advance, is the havoc they create, impeding other runners before failing and forcing changes of tactics leading to misfortune for others.

The stories are clearly told in the dividends declared.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-29, 10:27 PM
Peter,

Please educate me and  list them.

You see the tipsters you follow tip plenty of pre post favourites yet show a loss so the unwanted ones may be here at this end of the pre post markets.

But then Black Heart Bart is 100/1 at the other end of the market and wins .... a prior Group 1 winner so it is hard to see how a horse at that end of the market is unwanted too.

So please Peter tell us which ones and why.

We are obviously missing some thing so here is your chance.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-29, 10:37 PM
Look and you shall see

            ......... those 'not wanted' are listed in pre-post markets for race-fields.

What is not shown, in advance, is the havoc they create, impeding other runners before failing and forcing changes of tactics leading to misfortune for others.

The stories are clearly told in the dividends declared.

So you have nothing to offer  :lol:

No wonder you got the sacked from your job :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Wenona on 2020-May-29, 11:02 PM
Do you ever have a bet Pete?

I suspect not as everything you do indicates you are an anti-gambling activist.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-30, 11:04 AM
Well Peter,

We tried to give you an opportunity to show that you actually have some sort of a clue but you are your own worst enemy in this regard.

IDIOT status confirmed...... but remember you were given a chance.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-30, 06:28 PM
He was given that chance, fours. What a failure he is. Zero courage to his convictions   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-May-30, 07:20 PM

Perth is racing on a rare 'heavy' track --- forget an all-up on Willie -- just not a sure thing tomorrow.


So Pike ends up with 4x wins, 2x seconds and 1x unplaced from seven rides.

Flat-staking $7 fixed collects $14.85 (112%), $7 tote pays $15.70 (124%).

Just give up f****it.



Tomorrows racing is a seasonal 'low day' ------ the fields are stacked to the rafters -- many horses 'accepted' to run should not even be in the fields.


Big Quaddie fields in Melbourne, 11*13*13*14. So effing what?

Deane Lester gets  $5k Quad with his 2nd/3rd/1st/2nd pick in these 'massive' fields, shortest winner $5.

Just give up f****it.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-30, 07:33 PM
So Pike ends up with 4x wins, 2x seconds and 1x unplaced from seven rides.

Flat-staking $7 fixed collects $14.85 (112%), $7 tote pays $15.70 (124%).

Just give up f****it.


It’s hilarious that this idiot known as a Peter Mair keeps touching the keyboard   :lol:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-30, 08:39 PM


Neither W Pike or Dean Lester need my applause

----- both are magnificent in their line of business and sensibly respected.

Even so, it was not a good day for most punters .....Wu Gok, Shalwa, Heptagon, and Perfect Jewel spoiled the party.

The Wu Gok win, especially, was not a good look ------- apparently, not every one was surprised. 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-30, 09:04 PM
  :lol:  oh peter you fool

Even after the event you can’t get close to being right  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-May-31, 09:28 PM

Shatin -- 'not well' went the day -- none won for the dynamic duo

Not a good day for the dynamic duo ---- worse for their blind followers. 

The average dividend for the 'shatin' winners was some 10/1.

The dynamic HK duo had a 'no win' day out  -- those betting on the duo to 'cream the card' were left wondering.

Shatin happens!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-May-31, 09:31 PM
Peter,

Suggest you familiarise with The Gambler lyrics.

When you do sufficient work knowing when to hold em, fold em or runaway gets a lot easier.

Hong Kong racing more profitable than usual today for those that do the work in many cases.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-May-31, 10:07 PM
Shatin -- 'not well' went the day -- none won for the dynamic duo

Not a good day for the dynamic duo ---- worse for their blind followers. 

The average dividend for the 'shatin' winners was some 10/1.

The dynamic HK duo had a 'no win' day out  -- those betting on the duo to 'cream the card' were left wondering.

Shatin happens!

Anyone who did their form would know that the “duo” weren’t going to ride many winners :bulb:

Now,  more importantly we note that you missed the Perfect  Jewel  party. It was a wonderful celebration 🎉
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-02, 07:02 PM


......... the dogged truth is revealed


              apparently no-one 'did their form' -- the dogged one did,  knew a rort would unfold
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-02, 07:57 PM
So now you’re suggesting corruption  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Do your form you idiot and you’ll find your “Perfect Jewel”  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-Jun-02, 08:39 PM
Serious problem with your argument Wily . You have to have a brain to do the form .Mair's repeated rubbish suggests that is where the cross road exists
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-02, 09:00 PM


When you come to a fork in the road --  take it


........ you guys know that ........ you just say we took the wrong road -- went the wrong way.

Those that 'did their form' faced the fork .........did their best ....... and got it expensively wrong.

........... tell us on Sunday ........not on 'hindsight' Monday...... otherwise publish your betting records..... not the dollars ...... just the other details of 'bets placed'.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-02, 09:06 PM
Told you before hand, Perfect Jewel last weekend :bop: :bop:


I can’t stop thinking of her💖💖💖💖

Oh and the other guys here, good judges in the tipping comp,  handed you 22 placegetters
10 of which won :no1: :no1:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-02, 09:17 PM
Oh, and further to that. The autumn comp that Brian ran picked over 70 winners and 200 placegetters.

All before the races were run you moron  :lol:

Look and find your perfect jewel 💎   :lol:  
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-02, 10:47 PM


....................one swallow does not a summer make

Conversely, one failure to swallow can have lingering consequences.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jun-02, 10:59 PM
Peter,

You have been given lots of pre race examples -lots and lots.

You are a total idiot as you ignore them completely and say the same bullshit regardless - only an idiot would fail to realise this is why the got rid of you by legislation.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-03, 07:31 AM
The extent they had to go to to get rid of the nutjob tells us how hopeless he was in his role.
A total failure reduced to spewing his crap to a handful of people on an Internet forum   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-03, 07:53 PM


Bookmakers' birthday weekend -- get the presents ready

It is Wednesday and the 'acceptances' crystal-ball is he

https://racingaustralia.horse/home.aspx?standard=true

First renew the faith in being warned  -- the 'dividends' declared for today's races are at tab.com.au

As for Saturday ------ at Flemington .....there are 4 races to be run over the 1400m course ....including the two last legs of a main quadrella --------- the lead ups are over 1600 and 2500......all chocka-block fields with many runners that should not be there based on pre-post odds.

........ and 'best of British' in Brisbane....... a G1 over 1400 for 18 2yros is a puzzle not to be pondered ahead of the go-for-broke feature for another 18.

Those wrapping presents might sensibly prefer to use the purple plastic rather than the sickly green which will reflect the faces of punters at day's end.

......... thoughts and prayers punters.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-06, 09:37 PM


Is the penny starting to drop?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jun-06, 09:46 PM
Peter,

How could the penny possibly drop?

You failed to tell us which ones should not be in the field - not even which part of the market you were referring to.

Had a marvellous day myself depsite your lack of guidance.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-07, 07:54 AM

Is the penny starting to drop?

It appears it isn’t. I tipped you into Creedence and you therefore you should have got a % of that lovely quaddy divv

Your a fool, go away
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-08, 06:59 PM


The 'penny' has dropped for me in relation to Melbourne metropolitan-racing


RVL oversaw another shocker at Flemington -- the four races with inflated fields over the 'unfair' 1400 m returned F4 dividends of $18k, 7k, 5k and 6k --  a 'quadrella' on these four races would have returned some $25k+.

Mal-administration by RVL so consistently at this level, and with such unfavourable consequences for most punters,   is surely a basis for a formal inquiry -- one like the banking royal commission where RVL is required to provide the 'collated facts' about what has happened since 'rewarding 10th' started --- and explain its acceptability as an industry policy under probing questioning.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-08, 07:03 PM
So the answer is no, you didn’t find Creedence  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-08, 07:20 PM

Victorian racing ministers

I have no idea why the current racing minister does not intervene to arrest the collapse of the credibility of Victorian racing following the inflated-fields initiative.

.................my fears were reinforced with this insight from the shadow minister who will be 'in waiting' for a very long time

Victoria’s shadow Racing Minister Tim Bull says racing in the state is currently “a million miles behind NSW” thanks to the government dragging its feet on lifting coronavirus restrictions.

........ the COVID has nothing to do with the failure of RVL
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-08, 07:25 PM


........ the COVID has nothing to do with the failure of RVL


Neither has anything you have asserted
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-08, 07:25 PM


..............you didn’t find Creedence


The idea that you would get two right in two weeks leaves me incredulous... well done.

Please start a 'wily's tips' thread and I will follow it.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-08, 07:30 PM


Mourningtown today ............... a new low benchmark for RVL


https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2020-06-08/MORNINGTON/MOR/R/4/Win
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-08, 07:35 PM
Hey peter, why not contribute your thoughts to this thread


http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/racing-talk/jackals-top-10-horses/new/?topicseen#new


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Jun-08, 07:42 PM

..............you didn’t find Creedence


The idea that you would get two right in two weeks leaves me incredulous... well done.

Please start a 'wily's tips' thread and I will follow it.

Pete why don’t you have a head to head tipping competition v Wily?

Each pick 4 horses every Saturday and a mythical $10 each way on it.

The selections run for 13 weeks.

If you win, I will chuck a $50 quaddie on for you the week after plus you get unfettered bragging rights.

If Wily wins, you have to not post till the MC is run and won.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-08, 07:47 PM
Jeunes, we’ve done that a few times already, on the stand-alone meetings in Melb.
Peter has yet to have a victory over me :thumbsup:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Jun-08, 07:51 PM

If Wily wins, you have to not post till the MC is run and won.

Just to be crystal clear here, Jeunes' "MC" being referred to is the 'Mars Cup', run on the planet Mars post-colonization.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Jeunes on 2020-Jun-08, 08:02 PM
Jeunes, we’ve done that a few times already, on the stand-alone meetings in Melb.
Peter has yet to have a victory over me :thumbsup:

Just to be crystal clear here, Jeunes' "MC" being referred to is the 'Mars Cup', run on the planet Mars post-colonization.

C’mon Wily give him a chance like a handicap. Make it 3 tips to his 4.

Harmer, I don’t think Mars Cup will work.   :lol:  Melbourne Cup will give us a break from the usual Victorian and NSW Racing bashing we have to endure.

Pete take the challenge.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-08, 10:02 PM


Against me, natioinally, I would back the wily-one,

 -- against Monty........in Sydney ...... I would back Monty.

I would not expect either to win ---just Monty to lose less.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-08, 10:08 PM


Inflated fields


The issue here is about inflated fields ..... and fixed-odds bookmaker exclusions .......and the consequences for most punters.


.......proper disclosure of these consequences would say ....'limit field sizes to qualified runners'.



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-09, 08:48 PM


Inflated-fields and too-wide barriers bring fairness undone

It is easy to be wise after the event, but, in hindsight, the extreme outside barrier draw probably sealed Dawn Passage’s fate.

..............stewards reports are full of 'unable to get a run' ............ stop this nonsense!


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: sobig on 2020-Jun-09, 09:13 PM
You do realise that the winner started 2 from the outside.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Villa on 2020-Jun-09, 09:35 PM
Shouldn’t be any issues with runners getting a fair crack at Canterbury tomorrow. An embarrassing 6 races for a Metropolitan Mid Week meeting.

R1 - 9 Runners
R2 - 10
R3 - 7
R4 - 9
R5 - 9
R6 - 10

By your reckoning, every Fav should be saluting

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-09, 09:45 PM

.......anything can happen

The problem 'sobig' is that once the dice are cast ......anything can happen ....... go for broke from wide, with a light weight..... take a sit and hope the others go too-fast ...... once the egg is scrambled it is winner take all......and the inflated field lets loose a random element that confounds the outcome.

The unfairness has compounding effects .. on trainers... on jockeys.... on owners ..............on sire records........and on and on

............. at its heart the field inflation is about 'funding' -- mainly funding of other races that should not be run.....and attendant sheltered-workshop participants that Australian racing is as a racket self-serving state politicians in rural electorates ..... all again compounded by state-v.-state in a nation that has one-third of one-per-cent of the people on the planet ...............

.....disappointment looms ............in an industry runs as a ponzi scheme............ new players with too-much money are seduced into funding the takers.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-10, 12:20 PM


................ this 'eric-the-eel' story is not the only one to be told


https://www.racenet.com.au/news/red-faces-averted---38-rater-doesn-t-accept-for-group-iii-eagle-farm-mile-20200610
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-11, 07:23 PM


It is Wednesday -- too-many have been 'accepted' to run (for 10th) on Saturday

............ punters money will be running from their careful fingers to the slippery fingers of rebate-taking syndicates and fixed-odds providers of transfer facilities to 'known losers'.

                                 https://racingaustralia.horse/home.aspx?standard=true

...........check-out the menus .......... know that you will get ripped again.... even Sydney might defy Monty.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Jun-11, 07:32 PM
It's Thursday, idiot.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-11, 08:23 PM


...........I was busy yesterday .... my posting-brand is 'Wednesday' when the 'too-many' is confirmed

The 'day' is not important to a warning that most punters will ignore ..... it is more important to know that most punters continue to put money on the line, knowing that they have no real chance of getting a fair-go.

If you want to be useful, hammer the warning to most  ..  and take it to heart yourself...you cant win either.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-11, 08:59 PM
It's Thursday, idiot.

Yes, he focked  up again  :lol:

And his brand is well known. “THE SACKED IDIOT” 😆
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-13, 07:40 PM


Reflect on the outcomes of races today

You can all read the declared dividends ..............across the board............... it was disgraceful...........  inflated fields are rorting punters

Monty did better than most ............. a 1.3 k early quadrella in Brisbane.......  Attention Run second-selection in the 6th @ 20/1 +........  F4 in the 2nd and 8th (1.3k) in Sydney.......... F4 in the 5th and 8th in Brisbane for 1.3k and 0.330k collects..

........... Monty cant do the impossible but he is ................just so good!


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-13, 08:49 PM
Hey Pete, you back Perfect Jewel? Double figure odds again :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:,
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-14, 08:35 PM


Honk-Konk.......  STOP ............about Hong Kong racing


Check out the 'outcome' of races run at Shatin today ....... rough stuff.

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2020-06-14/SHA-TIN/SHA/R/7/Win

For some reason, RVL has chosen to follow a Honk-Honk -- STOP -- model in their presentation of Melbourne metropolitan racing.

...... racing administrators inflating fields, with most punters still failing to understand the consequences, are trading short term 'fundingsuccess' against the relegation of the racing industry to oblivion.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-Jun-14, 08:46 PM
Hey Pete , It is getting late on a Sunday evening . I thought you would have been back in your facility and given your medication by now.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Jun-14, 09:35 PM

Honk-Konk.......  STOP ............about Hong Kong racing


Check out the 'outcome' of races run at Shatin today ....... rough stuff.

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2020-06-14/SHA-TIN/SHA/R/7/Win

For some reason, RVL has chosen to follow a Honk-Honk -- STOP -- model in their presentation of Melbourne metropolitan racing.

...... racing administrators inflating fields, with most punters still failing to understand the consequences, are trading short term 'fundingsuccess' against the relegation of the racing industry to oblivion.

Clicking on that link gives us a $5.85 winner - the races immediately prior/post this "rough" outcome read: $6.05, $4.95, $5.95, $5.65 and $2.45 (in capacity field).

Take your meds you sicko.



The quicker this site admits that this 'Peter Mair' account is not an actual person but an automated bot account whose only purpose is to drive activity/discussion, the sooner the tumbleweeds around here may get replaced by anything of actual merit.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-14, 09:51 PM
Clicking on that link gives us a $5.85 winner - the races immediately prior/post this "rough" outcome read: $6.05, $4.95, $5.95, $5.65 and $2.45 (in capacity field).

Take your meds you sicko.



The quicker this site admits that this 'Peter Mair' account is not an actual person but an automated bot account whose only purpose is to drive activity/discussion, the sooner the tumbleweeds around here may get replaced by anything of actual merit.


Hammers, The bloke can be serious.
 :clap2: :clap2: :clap2:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-15, 09:19 AM

Shatin --unreliable dominance

Cant leave them out, not worth putting them in -- the dynamic-duo had a very quiet night.

..........the quadrellas paying $9k and 1.5 k are indicative of problems akin to RVL and Melbourne racing.

...............similar outcome in Perth on Saturday .... the punters were piked.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-15, 03:40 PM
Punters were Piked

Hey, Pete.
When was the last time you saw Pikey running up the straight with a horse on his back?
Idiots like you didn’t back Perfect Jewel 💎 💎 💎 💖💖💖...again. Are you so incapable of doing form?

Why didn’t you get the quaddy Pete?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-15, 08:58 PM

Has a joker got the dynamic duo by the kryptonite shorts


.............. be sensible .........'how could this happen'........ if the duo get the pick of the crop?


The battle between Purton and Moreira has slowed to a walk in recent weeks. Purton has ridden seven winners in the last six meetings with Moreira saluting four times in that period.

.......... have Hong Kong punters caught the bridled-loyalty virus rorting Melbourne punters?

.... ............and what does the  subjection of HK portend for HK racing?



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-17, 09:15 PM


Branch stacking ...and race-field stacking ..are similarly corrupt


................have a peep at the line-up at Flemington on Saturday .......then put your wallet back in your pocket.

............... a boycott of this nonsense by most punters would give a powerful message .....and save them money!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-17, 09:27 PM
Tell us who shouldn’t be running Peter.
Specifics if your addled brain can do it  :lol:

I’ve already backed a few that I’m sure you would nominate, based on your ignorance
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-20, 07:06 PM


How good are inflated fields?

                  ..... you can all line-up race outcomes with your account balance [i.e.your own assessment of the form]......... and with others' published assessments of the form.

.................you know that fixed-odds corporates feeding off 'inflated fields' ....and rebate-getting syndicates ........ got your money

............line up again next week and give them more!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-20, 07:10 PM
What was wrong Peter, you couldn’t friend Front Page or Hi Stanger?

Are your eyes painted on?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-20, 09:31 PM



Apart from punters . ....others are being disadvantaged by inflated fields

The Flemington track may be 'wide' but the running horses mainly converge and do not run 'wide'.

On he contrary, the running horses converge on the narrow part of the track considered the 'fast lane.

...............straight-track racing  is necessarily 'unfair' when herd-horses are inclined to run as a group..............and there are so many as to deny most a fair go.

When the racing is done, some 'connections' will be left lamenting rough results that denied their runners a fair go.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-20, 09:34 PM
So you didn’t back front page  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-21, 09:03 AM


Inflated-fields should be front page news

..............."connections' pay the price for administrators' greed, especially jockeys"

Zahra was suspended for careless riding on third-placed Merited with stewards ruling he caused significant interference to several rivals - including race favourite King of Hastings, I Am Eloquent, Broadwayandfourth and Hi Stranger - near the 250m.


There is no mention in the stewards report of likely  interference when too many immature horses are crowding a 'fast lane'.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-21, 09:26 AM
.

So you didn’t back front page  :lol:

I take that as a No Peter  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-23, 06:19 PM

front page news.......another takeover target

Racenet's Richie is on board with Saturday's front page news


Corowa local, Geoff Duryea, took his young sprinter Front Page to the big smoke for the first time and the Magnus three-year-old absolutely pole-axed the city slickers in the Listed A.R.Creswick Stakes down the straight-six course at Flemington.


FP was in front, out of trouble and won well -- I just do not trust form from winter 3yro races horses, paying lotto dividends after the race was disrupted by interference common with inflated fields.

.............. Kosciusko is a big hill to climb.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-Jun-23, 07:46 PM
Not Today Dopey at Hawkesbury
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-23, 09:26 PM

Omen bets:-- --a horse named 'Kosciusko' won an out-of-town mid-week race today


Following this with such an oblique reference to an 'omen' result is typical of forum members with limited ability.

...................presumably such 'omen luck' is 'expected' by some to flow to front-page news come October.

Brainless.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jun-23, 09:35 PM
  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

There is only one bigger idiot than carey on the forum and that is  you sunshine.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-24, 07:43 AM

Omen bets:-- --a horse named 'Kosciusko' won an out-of-town mid-week race today


Following this with such an oblique reference to an 'omen' result is typical of forum members with limited ability.

...................presumably such 'omen luck' is 'expected' by some to flow to front-page news come October.

Brainless.

Of the irony, coming from a bloke who doesn’t do form and relies on some jibberer called monty to make his bets for him   :lol:   :lol:

Oh and posts here to prove his ignorance
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-24, 04:53 PM
Look at the pool sizes.  :lol:
Punters voted, Mair is an idiot  :thumbsup:

They are all rejoicing in the fact he’s no longer employed in the industry  :clap2:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-24, 08:27 PM


It is Wednesday..............


................ forum-natives are restless .............waiting for my assessment of the inflated Saturday fields.

'Crimes' against punters are looming ............as usual ............. accentuated by low-grade winter racing facilitating theft from addicts.

Spare my days: -- at Caulfield (with the rail out 12 m) Race 3 over 1400m for 3yros has 12 starting  ... as does race 9, a BM 84, over 1400  --- what do you think will happen?

The Rosehill offering is 'low-grade' on a heavy track ------- Race 9 ......a BM 78.....over 1200 .....with 13 accepted
....... might see quadrella punters forced to 'take the field'.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-24, 09:47 PM
Waiting for assessments  :lol:   :lol: ......you couldn’t give a rats arse what anyone thinks
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-28, 07:50 PM


............... its winter ....... its rough racing........

In Sydney, the quadrellas averaged $1.5 and the 'worst' 8 of 9 F4s averaged $10K.

In Melbourne, the main quadrella 'paid' $6k -- to 'no-one' -- and the 6 'worst' F4s averaged $ 6k.

....... inflated field rubbish.........is not a responsibly professional offer of betting entertainment.

Guess who got the punters money? [clue -- fixed odds  bookies and rebate-taking syndicates]

                            .... line up, and line their pockets, again next week

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-28, 08:40 PM
Pete, have you ever had a winning day on the punt?


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-28, 08:55 PM


Many

................for many years.....never lost....... overall.... over a full year.

Of course, not -paid for the investment of time ..........but a 'not losing' pastime

The advent of inflated fields ...... brought me undone ........along with many others.

The ACCC should require Tabcorp to come-clean on the shift to fixed-odds betting after the inflated field policy was put in place.

The compensating regulatory-requirement is about disclosing for each race the different 'net loss' fate of both big and small bets and 'big bets' placed late, against all bets.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-28, 09:25 PM
Fields have always been large. You’re full of shit😰
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-28, 09:49 PM


......a 'not-wily' dog......a plant that does not flower.... a John Cleese  'Manuel'  .......a 'waste of space'
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-30, 11:20 AM
take up offer and see who flowers, old fruit  :biggrin:

Like old fruit you were disposed of, to the trash heap, due to your rotteness :whistle:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-30, 06:18 PM


The unbelievable looms tomorrow

In the normal course I can imagine nothing worse for most punters than a mid-week race meeting in Melbourne.

These are, however, not normal times ---------- a something 'worse' could well be the racing in Sydney scheduled for the Kensington track tomorrow.

        ........ have a look at the form .... see what you think ......and then wait to be amazed by the outcomes.




Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-30, 08:11 PM


Kensington [NOT Randwick] tomorrow

Quaddiepending  6/10/8/3 ___   6/2,10/2,8/3  ___ 6/2,10/2,7/1,   __ 6,7,11/2,10/2,3,8/1,2,3

...............not tips ....... just a filtered rough consensus of tips published .. will not win!



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-30, 09:30 PM
take up offer and see who flowers, old fruit  :biggrin:

Like old fruit you were disposed of, to the trash heap, due to your rotteness :whistle:

What’s the matter Peter?
Cat got your tongue?
Actually it’s like those old Foghorn Leghorn cartooons where the wily ole dog has that idiot Foghorn by the tail and gives him a good flogging every time foggy opens his dumb gob   :lol:
]



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-30, 09:46 PM
  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jun-30, 09:50 PM
Plants or weeds -- it can be confusing

............. probably just a 'wily coyote' weed that grew ---- not deliberately planted but constantly licking, seeking official favour.

The fog-horn blowing daily is warning readers of your qualities.




Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jun-30, 09:57 PM
Would those qualities be the same ones that saw you having to clear your desk and get frog marched out of your old job , Foggy..... because you failed ?  :lol:

You got one thing right though, you do blow daily and we know what you blow  :crap: :crap:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-01, 10:13 AM

Kensington [NOT Randwick] tomorrow

Quaddiepending  6/10/8/3 ___   6/2,10/2,8/3  ___ 6/2,10/2,7/1,   __ 6,7,11/2,10/2,3,8/1,2,3

...............not tips ....... just a filtered rough consensus of tips published .. will not win!




Wrong thread numbat
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-01, 06:30 PM


It was unbelievable --  as usual MN mid-week was 'worse'


The unbelievable looms tomorrow. In the normal course I can imagine nothing worse for most punters than a mid-week race meeting in Melbourne. These are, however, not normal times ---------- a something 'worse' could well be the racing in Sydney scheduled for the Kensington track tomorrow.

........ now making my way through a big slice of humble-pie ....... racing on the Kensington track was credible.

My quadrella non-tips came in 3 1sts and one 2nd -- but only with the substitute winning the last.

Monty's Top 5
missed the first and last winners but had 3 of the F4 in 6 races -- including 2 F4s complete, paying $300+ each.

                 .... Monty astonishes.



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-01, 08:46 PM


Confidence lost ... all is lost


There will be no humble pie being served after the quadrella is done and dusted at Flemington on 4 July.

Two legs with inflated fields run over both 1400 and 1600 is a bad omen for most punters.

.... half the starters would be happy to run 10th...... but, daring-to-be great, will be impeding other runners.

............independence day should be celebrated by not betting on these races ..... take the bride out to dinner on the savings.



 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-01, 09:06 PM

It was unbelievable --  as usual MN mid-week was 'worse'


The unbelievable looms tomorrow. In the normal course I can imagine nothing worse for most punters than a mid-week race meeting in Melbourne. These are, however, not normal times ---------- a something 'worse' could well be the racing in Sydney scheduled for the Kensington track tomorrow.

........ now making my way through a big slice of humble-pie ....... racing on the Kensington track was credible.

My quadrella non-tips came in 3 1sts and one 2nd -- but only with the substitute winning the last.
.

So you were wrong again   :lol:




 :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-01, 10:08 PM


I can be wrong often enough

                                                        ........... but not usually.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jul-02, 08:20 AM
IDIOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

A $300 first four is nothing to boast about - it is an embarrassment in actual fact given the strike rate of getting them and outlay required.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-03, 01:17 PM

I can be wrong often enough

                                                        ........... but not usually.


You are mostly wrong, the giveaway is your refusal to answer questions put to you
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-04, 07:48 PM

............now 7.30pm, the bride should be tucking in to decent feed

Alas I fear not ........... the  usual nonsense unfolded predictably in the MN quadrella ......... inflated fields over 1400&1600 at Flemingtion are always a bad omen ......but, as addicts, we bet as if the races will be run fairly.... they were not............and, worse, we knew they would not be.

In the event the Q paid $4,000 and the component F4s paid $5k, 9k, 30k and 6k ....the bride is at home making the best of leftovers.

.......... when will RVL, the connections, and the punters look and see that the current plan putting greed over integrity is fatally flawed?

xxxxxxxxxxx

...................as posted on Wednesday:

Confidence lost ... all is lost

There will be no humble pie being served after the quadrella is done and dusted at Flemington on 4 July.

Two legs with inflated fields run over both 1400 and 1600 is a bad omen for most punters.

.... half the starters would be happy to run 10th...... but, daring-to-be great, will be impeding other runners.

............independence day should be celebrated by not betting on these races ..... take the bride out to dinner on the savings.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Jul-04, 08:37 PM

In the event the Q paid $4,000 and the component F4s paid $5k, 9k, 30k and 6k ....the bride is at home making the best of leftovers.
n Wednesday:


Stop  :censored: lying.

The "components" did not pay $5k, $9k, $30k and $6k - the "components" paid 9.70, 7.60, 9.70, 3.80.

The nag that run second in the third leg has ZERO IMPACT on the Quaddie payout.

Legs were won by 5th fav, 4th fav, 3rd fav and favorite in the last.

You could've closed your eyes and taken the first five favorites in every leg and made a handsome profit. Not worried about the 9th, 10th, 11th horse in the first leg, 13th, 14th, 15th horse in the second leg, 12th, 13th, 14th in the third leg or the 12th, 13th, 14th in the last.

The pointy end of the market won all legs, that is, the market was on the money yet you still whine like a little  :censored:


Gambling Help: 1800 858 858
gamblinghelponline.org.au

You're sick. Get help.
 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-04, 09:10 PM



.............get your hand off it ..... those components fairly paid some $4k........ most punters had no hope ..........
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Jul-04, 09:19 PM

Gambling Help: 1800 858 858
gamblinghelponline.org.au

You're sick. Get help.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-05, 08:38 AM
the Q paid $4,000

Legs were won by 5th fav, 4th fav, 3rd fav and favorite in the last.🥳🥳🥳🥳🍾🍾🍾🍾




The bride how a wonderful slap a meal that finished with Mairs superbly concocted humble humble pie 🥧


  :lol:    :lol: nothing in this life is surer than Mair being wrong  :biggrin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-05, 09:06 AM
Wednesday wisdom – is now accepted

When it can routinely be predicted on Wednesday that the results of some inflated-field races will be ‘rough’, one might say I was giving help to those punters needing to be reminded that they are likely to lose their money betting on those races.

The comment,

                The nags that run second in the third leg has ZERO IMPACT on the Quaddie payout.

.......misses the point............. the assessment of the fairness of a race needs a broad perspective ....... the first-four place-getters indicate what was happening at the pointy-posty end of the race.......... and lotto-like F4 payouts (to rebate-taking syndicates) offer the broader perspective of the range of random outcomes that could have turned up ............and the likely sad fate of the favoured horses.

.............putting aside the confected bravado coming from the kennel .........it is unlikely that most punters are happy with the rough results of inflated-field racing.

Industry administrators promising ‘integrity’ seem to have everyone else in mind as possible offenders ........... showing no appreciation of the degradation of the racing product that came with inflated fields.......... fancy paying no-hopers to run 10th after they clutter and impede.

.............the corporates just love ‘rough result’ racing!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-05, 09:14 PM

Honk-honk

........................inflated fields are also degrading racing in Hong Kong........ maybe 'lucky numbers' are more reliable than pre-post markets reflecting 'known form'.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-06, 12:49 PM
Honk-honk

........................inflated fields are also degrading racing in Hong Kong........ maybe 'lucky numbers' are more reliable than pre-post markets reflecting 'known form'.


Another brain fart from Mair. Time to stop lying Peter  :yes:

 9 of the 11 races were won by favourites or favoured runners

Mair wrong again
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-08, 07:11 PM

Wednesday is 'acceptance day'............ and 'crystal-ball' day


The fields RVL has 'accepted' for Caulfield on Saturday are now on-line.

I would like to suggest a role-reversal ............. instead of me saying which races might go-wrong ....... someone else might like to say which races will go right.

....I will concede that R5..... ten late-3yros running over 1400 ....is marginally in the fair-go sights.

............. over to you
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Antitab# on 2020-Jul-08, 07:30 PM
You mean do the form .

Identify races where there are horses (regardless of price) over the odds that might be considered worth a bet.

Who would have thunk that may be a good strategy to make a dollar.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jul-08, 08:54 PM
Easy peasy,

Nearly all of the Melbourne big field races are great to bet on as long as you do the form......

The size of the field helps errors in pricing to occur and this is your opportunity to profit.

Helped along by fools who follow worthless tips.

Fours 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-08, 09:09 PM

Wednesday is 'acceptance day'............ and 'crystal-ball' day


The fields RVL has 'accepted' for Caulfield on Saturday are now on-line.

I would like to suggest a role-reversal ............. instead of me saying which races might go-wrong ....... someone else might like to say which races will go right.

....I will concede that R5..... ten late-3yros running over 1400 ....is marginally in the fair-go sights.

............. over to you

Problem is peter, you do not say what will go wrong. You refuse to discuss anything apart from spewing your broad brush brain farts

When questioned you can’t provide answers :tin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-09, 09:32 AM

Two shockers loom for Saturday

-- Race 3 a BM 78 with 16 to run over 1400 is for 'lucky-number' selections  - Race 9 a BM84 over 1200 is the usual 'field' job for the last.

There is an early consensus around the other races --- Races 4&5 with ten to run over 1400 should be fair.

The early consensus suggests 5 from 3&4 in the fourth and, in the fifth, 2 from 1 from 4,6,7,9.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-09, 06:52 PM


Races that should not be run

.... the inclusion of races 3 and 9 on the program for Caulfield does not meet a sensible quality standard.

These two races should not be run.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-09, 07:36 PM
The only consensus is that you have no idea :bulb:

Given you were re employed and had any control,( god help us) what horses would your refuse to allow to run over This  meeting.
Do the form and give us some specifics
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-09, 08:15 PM

The appropriate rules are clear,

................connections are not automatically entitled to run any horse in any race ...... protecting the quality of the racing run requires, at least, that any runner lingering at the starting gates with an SP over 20/1 is scratched and all bets on it refunded.

So, for any race, at start time - if the 'price' of a horse is more than 20/1 it is scratched.

...on Saturday, just keep track of the SP market ....over 20/1 means the horse is either 'not there to win' or, if it were to, it would be akin to a ring-in rort.

....that's fair ... if the connections want a start .......put their money up and show some sincerity!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-09, 08:35 PM
The appropriate rules are clear,

So, for any race, at start time - if the 'price' of a horse is more than 20/1 it is scratched.

...on Saturday, just keep track of the SP market ....over 20/1 means the horse is either 'not there to win' or, if it were to, it would be akin to a ring-in rort.!


  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:
Ok.
Let’s run with that. $19 is okay but not $20    :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   emthup   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-09, 09:13 PM


..............  reductio ad absurdum

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-09, 09:39 PM
Well, you’re contention is absurd & moronic.

An arbitrary $20 is stupid. I’ve  given you plenty of Perfect Jewels that have been over your arbitrary $20. Why should they be dismissed because you and the other idiots can’t identify them via doing the form :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-10, 01:31 PM
The appropriate rules are clear,

................

So, for any race, at start time - if the 'price' of a horse is more than 20/1 it is scratched.!

That’s the dumbest thing that anyone has ever suggested on this forum. It even out does your previous crap :bulb :tin:

Given  I just backed the $31 winner in the first @ Scone today  you can stick that brain fart back up ya arse you idiot   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-10, 09:22 PM


......... three-day-ahead foresight and boastful next-day 'wisdom' are different things

Saying, on Wednesday, which races will be unfair events on Saturday is useful and has been a reliable call.

Telling me tomorrow, that you selected a long-priced winner yesterday, is not useful.   

I need to know yesterday.

The idea that a kennel-kid punter has insights, pointing to 20/1 winners, is interesting............ it becomes more than interesting when that same kk-punter seemingly does the same regularly ... and boasts about it to counter any idea that backing 20/1 shots is not likely to be a winning strategy.

............. tell us ahead of the race or shut up....... or better still post the 'clip' from your betting account record to show that the boasted bet was on.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-11, 08:54 AM
You constantly get told before the race but you’re  too stupid to realise.

AND, nothing you post on a Wednesday is useful, to anyone. It’s the same reason you got sacked
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-11, 07:35 PM


Another correct call on Wednesday

Races that should not be run

.... the inclusion of races 3 and 9 on the program for Caulfield does not meet a sensible quality standard.

These two races should not be run.


The F4 for Race 9 was around $40,000 and , in Race 3, $3.000 ....... the 3/1 favourite won. I missed one --- the F4 in Race 6 paid $30,000.

..... stay well clear of the RVL tripe.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-11, 08:01 PM
Poor old Mair gets it wrong again  :lol:

Early quaddy paid 500 bucks. 4 favourite runners saluting. Punters had no problems but old redundant  Mair failed again  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: nemisis on 2020-Jul-11, 08:14 PM
You don't need to be taking F4s  Peter......nothing wrong with R 9 other than a couple of apprentices both wanting to lead.
After deciding last week to leave the punting to others I'm remembered what I thought watching Bedford a couple of weeks ago......next time.
A very, very good horse......just needs wet ground!
Snipped my wife for $50 and did this at 10.30 this morning.....I believe this is the right etiquette.....first bet since last Sat.

(https://i.postimg.cc/Rq8CXNxr/Screen-Shot-2020-07-11-at-7-59-11-pm.png) (https://postimg.cc/Rq8CXNxr)
I'm certain anyone who had seen Lord Bouzeron going around in Kiwiland would have had a little there as well in R6.

And while I'm here......Go Mick Bell with his champ......Jungle Edge  emthup
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Jul-11, 08:16 PM
I seriously don't know why I bother, and I know it will not even be given an ounce of thought due to the arrogance/ignorance of PM, but:

* Try devising for yourself a fairly simple metric, let's call it "Expected Wins".

* Work out each horses (%) chance to win by dividing their tote odds (or fixed) by one /1 - the sum of this calculation will contain the WSP's over-round.

* Convert these percentages into a 100% market, giving you each horse's real chance (less the juice) if the market is true.

* Sum these XWin figures across an entire card, using whatever sized buckets/classifiactions you deem fit.

For today:

Fav/2nd Fav - 18x runners - 3.74 XWins - 6 actual wins
3rd/4th/5th Fav - 27x runners - 2.96 XWins - 2 actual wins
6th Fav onwards - 48x runners - 2.30 XWins - 1 actual win

18+27+48 = 93 runners
3.74 + 2.96 + 2.30 = 9 races, also 6+2+1 = 9 races

Extrapolate this over a decent sample (I know you won't) to draw accurate, verifiable an meaningful conclusions. You can then filter by state, by region, by track, by field size - and your arguments/hypotheses may be reviewed with more than the skerrick of care that they currently deserve.

Today, the market said the favorites should win 2.18 races - they over-performed this figure and won 5.
Today, the market said the top two favorites should win 3.74 races - they over-performed this figure and won 6.
Today, the market said the top three favorites should win 4.94 races - they over-performed this figure and won 7.
Today, the market said the top four favorites should win 5.87 races - they over-performed this figure and won 8.


Please don't let your shortcomings (lies) get in the way of a good story (facts, backed by data/evidence).
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-11, 08:33 PM
Yes Hammers, he’s a bald faced, unemployable liar.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-Jul-11, 08:42 PM
Harmers has done a better job than me
although i will add
my tip was posted on the weekend comp at 11am
25 starts 6 wins
dist 5/2
soft 5/1
heavy 5/2 which i thought it would be
2nd up 6/2
July 2019 BM90 56KG
Today BM84 61.5KG Not hard done by from barrier 1
J Mott knows the horse
Freedman team are in form
Nice price or overs ?
dumb   
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-Jul-11, 08:43 PM
DO THE FORM !
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-11, 09:39 PM

Most punters are sensibly aware and choose carefully

When a quadrella pays some $6.5k it is fairly clear that not many 'got it'.

More generally when that $6.5 quadrella is 'topped' and 'tailed' by F4s paying $30k and $40k it is clear enough that the form guide has not been the most reliable guide to the factors that count.

The RVL early-Q was 'in reach' provided one selected last year's winner of the race ---- one presumably readied to 'do it 'again'.

How do 'they' get this one ready ............ this cannot be a secret ...... a this-one is 'readied' against the odds all too often.

...............the stewards never say a word ...........apparently, never look to see who was told what about 'what was done'.



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Jul-11, 10:05 PM

When a quadrella pays some $6.5k it is fairly clear that not many 'got it'.

More generally when that $6.5 quadrella is 'topped' and 'tailed' by F4s paying $30k and $40k it is clear enough that the form guide has not been the most reliable guide to the factors that count.


When you lie as often as you do, when you make up as many stories as you do to cover up your failures, when the voices in your head all get too much - it's hard to keep up with the actual truth.

Pick a lane, and stick to it.

Your "rough", "ungettable", "rorted" F4's had about 2 winning $1 units on them each, tax already taken out.
Your Quaddie that was impossible (paying $6.6k) had about 180 winning $1 units on it, tax also taken out.

Pick your poison, you can't have it both ways. Two winning ($1) units in a pool, I'll cop that 'not many got it'. 180 winning units? Jam that lie up your  :censored:


I see you chose to ignore an earlier post on this thread, where some kind-hearted soul introduced facts that showed that favored runners actually outperformed their expectations today. Ignorant fool.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-12, 08:29 AM
Most punters are sensibly aware and choose carefully

it is clear enough that the form guide has not been the most reliable guide to the factors that count.'.


No it’s clear that people like you should not punt as you have no idea :tin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-12, 08:35 AM
When you lie as often as you do, when you make up as many stories as you do to cover up your failures, when the voices in your head all get too much - it's hard to keep up with the actual truth.

Pick a lane, and stick to it.

Your "rough", "ungettable", "rorted" F4's had about 2 winning $1 units on them each, tax already taken out.
Your Quaddie that was impossible (paying $6.6k) had about 180 winning $1 units on it, tax also taken out.

Pick your poison, you can't have it both ways. Two winning ($1) units in a pool, I'll cop that 'not many got it'. 180 winning units? Jam that lie up your  :censored:


I see you chose to ignore an earlier post on this thread, where some kind-hearted soul introduced facts that showed that favored runners actually outperformed their expectations today. Ignorant fool.

It appears everyone has got Mair figured out. Starting with those who rid our great sport of his brain farts

“Jam that lie up your  :censored:”

”When you lie as often as you do, when you make up as many stories as you do to cover up your failures, when the voices in your head all get too much - it's hard to keep up with the actual truth”


I see you chose to ignore an earlier post on this thread, where some kind-hearted soul introduced facts that showed that favored runners actually outperformed their expectations today
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-12, 08:42 AM

The assessment has to be proportional


As the most popular bet in Australia, some 200,000+ punters probably take a Melbourne quadrella ticket.

........so some 200 in 200,000+ is a small proportion ..... and most of the pool would have gone to rebate-taking syndicates.

There was no way most punters would have given the winners of the 6th and 9th any chance -- the 9th was a predictably rough, inflated field event and the 6th for 3yros over an unfamiliar distance a bit of a raffle..

My point is simply about the races being promoted and conducted fairly --- and many are are not ...and you know they won't be on Wednesday when you see the inflated fields.



 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Antitab# on 2020-Jul-12, 09:33 AM
Lets diagnose this Melbourne quadrella and ascertain how hard it was to get, I dont think any of the results were particularly surprising.

Leg 1 - They bet 25/1 the winner Friday, first up from NZ where it had won or run second its last three starts, decent wet form on a bog , career record 4 wins from 14 starts. SP $14 not a hard horse to throw in a quaddie.

Leg 2- Wet tracker close to the best backed horse in the country yesterday., started $2.60

Leg 3 - Won its last three starts, SP $6

Leg 4 - 7/2 the field so open race. Winner, 2nd up after racing first up at 1800m , so was going to improve, 5 starts on heavy for 2 wins and a second. This horse had raced in Group 2  races, if you dig back far enough was beaten 2.1 lengths Homesman and Almandin at 2000m, Was a little harder to find than the others but at $14 in an open race the sort of horse you could easily throw in a quaddie.

I took a quaddie with 72 combinations, 3 x 2 x 3 x 4 and was alive going to the last leg but missed. Upon reflection you could easily make a case why I should have thrown the winner in.


The SP all up was $3300/1 so dividend has plenty of fat in it.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-12, 10:43 AM

All is clear on Sunday


Both Bet Busters and Punters.com also had the four winners -- these 'tips' are probably related now newscorpse owns Racenet as well as P.C.

.........quadrellas with even one 'rough' result can pay overs because of their popularity ....especially in Melbourne.

Both RVL and RNSW know this and exploit it .....the last leg is usually rough to start with and made worse by inflating the fields in all the legs.

With no one to represent punters, they are taken for a ride ....... a very rough ride these days when the corporates feed off the 100% 'take' for rough results and the syndicates plunder the exotic pools.

.......if you think the banks got worked over for misconduct ... it would be even more entertaining if there was an inquiry into the administration of racing and its cartel-like links to corporates ...the tongue-tied racing media ....and politicians in rural racing electorates.

One option could be for ASIC to use its new powers to expose 'intentionally detrimental' products and require their redesign or withdrawal ........... paying cluttering 'no hopers' to run 10th is deliberate product detriment .and ideal cover for connections getting one ready and smoking it in.



 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Jul-12, 12:09 PM
Give up while you're behind.


........so some 200 in 200,000+ is a small proportion ..... and most of the pool would have gone to rebate-taking syndicates.


Again, with your rubbery figures to give your bile any semblance of reality.

In trying to make one lie match with another, you've introduced the concept of 'proportions', coming up with 200k betting participants to link your lies together.

200k punters in the Quad makes an average bet size of $8. Not even you could believe that lie you are trying to spin.


Get help you sick, lecherous old  :censored: . I've supplied Gamblers Help details before.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-12, 12:38 PM
Well said hammers.
The 2 biggest takeaways from Mairs latest brain fart

1. He said “ With no one to represent punters”.
The grub is driven by self interest. Thats his sole mission. To somehow wedge himself back into a job

2. He will lie his arse off to achieve that


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-12, 01:15 PM


Would you guys endorse a request to Tabcorp to provide the figures?


The needed information is not published so there is some guesstimating.

There are some 1 million punters in Australia 'betting week-to week and the Melbourne quadrella pool, nationally, across all 'service providers' is some $3 million -- say twice the VICTAB pool -- and that would put the average stake at $15 if 200,000 take a ticket.

The problem is that the racing media men are 'beholden' due to the media-owners being compromised with subsidies to publish the form........the paid-off media is not doing is job......even the one claiming to be 'always independent'.

........ trying to unionize punters is like herding cats ....but that is what is needed ... the power of a national organization .......... to put questions and demand answers ...and to go on strike.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-12, 08:09 PM

Vale of tears flooded


Victorians seemingly have no capacity to learn from experience -- do not bet at the Valley.

Luckily, I was unaware of a 'meeting' at the Vale today -- I do not like to decry a meeting without having put some money up.

On a heavy track, with minimal fields after scratchings, the outcomes reflected the nonsense of racing on this track .....the quadrella paid $11,000...........one component F4 paid $50k++ on VICTAB .......... and the other F4s paid overs considering the small fields.

.....even so, the VICTAB quadrella pool was some $450k+ .....on a Sunday? ............ while the NSWTAB pool held less than $100k.

........who is laughing .....  corporates and syndicates.....who trousered the money!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-Jul-12, 08:48 PM
I would think for once we might have to agree with the ravings of this moron. It seems to me like he would have a rather intimate knowledge of "trousering ". Probably his own.. After all you cant get that silly ........................
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: arthur on 2020-Jul-12, 09:03 PM
the 6th for 3yros over an unfamiliar distance a bit of a raffle..

Sounds a bit like an 'Oaks' or a 'Derby' . . .

Hope you're not crooked on them too . .
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-12, 09:32 PM
He’ll be crooked on anything if it means he can push his own barrow
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: nemisis on 2020-Jul-13, 10:32 AM
Racing Victoria Stewards have opened an inquiry and  want to look at betting sheets from race 9
Two apprentices, who both have obviously been instructed to lead and run a long a bit. :what:
Stewards need to open their eyes a bit wider!

It hardly compares to Sirconni's big PB last week at his 28th start .....at least $18 into $10.....which was allowed just to pass through.
It should be of much more interest to look at those betting sheets.

Bedford, the best horse in the race, won at basically the same price he had been all week.
I'll just point out that when Bedford raced Almandin and Homesman, he did run as fav.....so his ability was well recognised.
https://www.racing.com/news/2020-07-12/news-caulfield-stewards-adjourn-riding-inquiry
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-14, 08:44 PM


Quadrella dividends 'declared' tell the  story

It is just not Saturdays

..... today at Wagga the Q 'paid' $60k ......... at Seymour $25k............. just wait for Wednesday at Cranbourne.

This is not right ..... race outcomes have no connection to established form.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-15, 08:32 AM
Of which races,of those quaddy legs,  had any runners interfered with due to the size of the field.

Did any of your notoriously “slow runners fall back in the lap of favoured runners” as you claim happens in fields over 10?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-15, 12:48 PM


Buckle-up......it is wondering Wednesday

Have a look at Flemington yourself:

https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2020Jul18%2CVIC%2CFlemington

Races 1,2,3&4 have 10 starters and the outcomes will be interesting -- not least a race 3 raffle over 1800m for immature 2yros.  Assess the rest, all with big fields, yourself - one clue, R9 a BM78 with 18 crowding a fast lane over 1200 m is a tough way to end a hard day.

As for Sydney, the 'Kenso' is not Randwick and a heavy track will not help.

                .....wonder no more ....the movies are back

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-15, 03:01 PM
Of which races,of those quaddy legs,  had any runners interfered with due to the size of the field.

Did any of your notoriously “slow runners fall back in the lap of favoured runners” as you claim happens in fields over 10?


So again
you refuse to answer questions and enter discussion  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-15, 03:39 PM

There are no indiscreet questions ........but some answers could be

A kennel-kid asking questions 'looking for a discussion' .....is akin to a pitt-bull looking for live red meat ......before digging a hole where my bones would be buried for repeated retrieval.

I have been there and done that ........ been mocked.......often impolitely....  amusing other kennel pals.

More generally some questions have no clear answer ...... just a race unfolding predictably inexplicably to an unexpected outcome.

.........  R9 on Saturday may be an example... as have been others nominated on earlier Wednesdays.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-15, 04:08 PM
There are no indiscreet questions ........but some answers could be

A kennel-kid asking questions 'looking for a discussion' .....is akin to a pitt-bull looking for live red meat ......before digging a hole where my bones would be buried for repeated retrieval.
.

Well, that’s because you are constantly getting it wrong and don’t have the character to admit it. You just steamroll along with what have now turned into lies :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-15, 04:11 PM


I have been there and done that ........ been mocked.......often impolitely....  amusing other kennel pals.


That’s because you have failed to treat the forum with respect.
Any impolite response to you is born out of YOUR disrespectful approach to this place
Answer questions put to you or  :censored:  off
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-15, 06:15 PM


Thank you for confirming my discretion to let some questions hang in the air until they answer themselves.

....... will R9 on Saturday be fairly run? ............ the result will be the answer..... it could be but not likely.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jul-15, 07:05 PM
IDIOT.

Variance says that is not possible.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-15, 07:45 PM


Race 9 at Flemington on Saturday should not be run

Not sure if 'Variance' is a contributor but would be interested in his views.

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/flemington-20200718/celebrating-flemington-trainers-and-stab-race-9

Considering the 21 incredibly 'accepted' to run -- 12 are at pre-post odds over 20/1 -- including runners at 200/1, 150/1 , 80/1 and 60/1 that are not even 'emergencies'.

........ in Melbourne ..... on a Saturday....  as the final leg of the Quadrella ......this is not sane

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: gunbower on 2020-Jul-15, 08:20 PM
."....... in Melbourne ..... on a Saturday....  as the final leg of the Quadrella ......this is not sane "

That is a quote from Mair . I cant believe he said that he thought something was not sane. The guy mustn't have a mirror in his house.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-15, 09:24 PM

Thank you for confirming my discretion to let some questions hang in the air until they answer themselves.

....... will R9 on Saturday be fairly run? ............ the result will be the answer..... it could be but not likely.

Truth of the matter is you don’t have the intellect or decency to actually discuss it before the race.
You sit and pray something falls into place to pump your tyres

It hasn’t happen yet, Mair and no Sunday review from you will have a leg to stand on  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-15, 10:44 PM


There is nothing to discuss

........... what has not happened ......will happen....  sitting and praying will not be me ......maybe you.

I have called it on Wednesday ..... you want to wait til Sunday ............ get a crystal ball.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-16, 08:17 AM

There is nothing to discuss

........... what has not happened ......will happen....  sitting and praying will not be me ......maybe you.

I have called it on Wednesday ..... you want to wait til Sunday ............ get a crystal ball.

Don’t need a crystal ball you dumb flog, just something called a form guide that you clearly don’t have or don’t know how to use
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-16, 11:13 AM

Race 9 at Flemington on Saturday should not be run

Not sure if 'Variance' is a contributor but would be interested in his views.

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/flemington-20200718/celebrating-flemington-trainers-and-stab-race-9

Considering the 21 incredibly 'accepted' to run -- 12 are at pre-post odds over 20/1 -- including runners at 200/1, 150/1 , 80/1 and 60/1 that are not even 'emergencies'.

........ in Melbourne ..... on a Saturday....  as the final leg of the Quadrella ......this is not sane

Cracking good race Mair. For a start, there will be 18 runners not 21 so stop lying again  :tin:


I’ve got a black booked horse going in it at a nice price 👍

Of those that you listed above at big prices, tell us which ones should not be in the race.

Do the form and tell us in advance for once :bulb:

 MOST of them are way over the odds. You may find a Perfect Jewel :clap2:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-16, 04:10 PM
Well Mairs brain fart about scratching horses $20 or over at the barrier has been exposed as moronic, yet again

Go Rahni Factor $26 :clap2: :bop: :bop:

Keep punting Pete, idiots like you create value🥳🥳🥳🥳
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2020-Jul-16, 04:48 PM
Dearest Pete,

Imagine a world where there was but one race per day, or seven races per week. If that doesn't work, simply imagine one seven-race card.

Now imagine, in this world, a perfect field size - let's imagine that number to be ten. Not too big. Not too small. Not too fair. Not too unfair. Ten. Just right.

Now imagine the call for the runners reads: 2.50, 6.00, 8.00, 10.00, 16.00, 20.00, 25.00, 33.00, 50.00, 100.00.

Because I know how very clever and forward-thinking you are, I know you will have already worked out that there is no juice/tax/comm in this perfect world, the market is at 100%.

Your 20/1+ donkeys in this field must win one race on each seven race card, or one race each week if you went with the 'one race per day' option. They must. Over a decent enough period of time, they simply must. It's how numbers work. It's mathematics, it's Mabo, it's the vibe.

If you really had any conviction in what you spout, or actually believed what you peddle to be a truth, you are suggesting that these longer priced runners are occurring more often than they should statistically should. A kind-hearted soul on this very forum suggested to you, many years ago from memory, that if you actually believed what you spout to be true, you would back this subset of runners and untold riches would flow your way. They'd have to, because the numbers, statistics and probabilities don't lie - people do.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-16, 07:09 PM


When the declared dividend says 'everyone' got it wrong .......something is not right.

I am confident that the racing media 'tipsters' are competent and do their best  --- some are more competent than others ........... for Sydney racing on Saturdays, I would nominate Monty as the best and his stablemate Chris Roots as not-to-be-ignored, given his likely access to table secrets.

..........others will have their own preferences ......... there is no published accountability for any ....there should be.

Regular punters are not silly either ....they do the form ......they are being taken for a ride with $5,000-for-10th pretenders impeding a fair race between those their to win.

Anecdotally, favorites are under-bet and, usually, 10/1 would embrace most winners -- long-shots do win, rarely, and the stewards do not run rorts to ground.

[........as regards the role being played by wily to promote my views and interest in the forum.... his recent responses to my postings confirm the impression that he is a pit-bull baying for blood and applause in the kennel .......biting hard and nasty on anything said.......a plant not worth watering.]
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-16, 07:48 PM



[........as regards the role being played by wily to promote my views and interest in the forum.... his recent responses to my postings confirm the impression that he is a pit-bull baying for blood and applause in the kennel .......biting hard and nasty on anything said.......a plant not worth watering.]

Avoid the facts again Mair   :lol:   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-16, 07:56 PM


Manuel,

                                    FO.....GABYA
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-16, 08:19 PM
See, you have nothing to contribute   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-16, 08:29 PM


Check out R6 at 'once-was-headquarters'

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/flemington-20200718/tab-ata-trainers-trust-handicap-race-6/field

............17 accepted ..........16 to run............... more than half the field are 20/1 or worse....including 250/1,150/1,
125/1,100/1,66/1, 2X33/1, 25/1 and 20/1

This race should not be run either -- it is a waste of money put in by punters.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-16, 08:40 PM
The price doesn’t matter you fool, it’s the form that matters :tin:

Tell us who you would put the line through

Grow a set and discuss it Peter, here’s your chance
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-16, 09:01 PM


Once-was-headquarters -- the races scheduled for Saturday should not be run

.......................it is not just race 9 or race 6 ....this whole program has disaster for punters written all over it.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-16, 09:13 PM
So once again you can’t contribute   :lol:
 :censored:  man, you tie yourself in knots trying to invent something
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jul-16, 09:40 PM
All

Moree R6 first four paid a very nice 34 grand but all horses in the result had excellent form for the days race.

The winner did firm late in proceedings but not much in % terms Free Billy firmed into 25/1 from 30/1 and was ridden from near the tail to first so got in absolutely no horses way as Peter Mair would claim. Peter Mair of course would not let the horse run - despite it running past the entire field to win...... His argument that it would get in the way totally refuted once again.

We had 2 of the three favourites in the first four result so I wont insult people ( apart from Peter ) as to why they were that price.

Mysticism's price at 33/1 would also see it banned by Peter from running but it's form at the track and distance was 4 starts for 2 wins and a further placing. Despite this excellent form Peter would not let it start.....

There is a reason I refer to Peter as IDIOT!

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-16, 09:42 PM










Peter Mair of course would not let the horse run - despite it running past the entire field to win...... His argument that it would get in the way totally refuted once again.

There is a reason I refer to Peter as IDIOT!

Fours



Fours, it’s laughable isn’t it



I got the F4 on the 7th race as well :clap2: paid very well
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jul-16, 09:46 PM
  :lol:   :lol:

Had to laugh and yes it paid okay on those combos...... but not enough for me to get out of bed so cost me a little of my profits from R6.

Can't win them all and I don't try to; glad you had a win.

I wonder if the jockey on Free Billy is related to the notorious book maker Gallagher...

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-16, 09:58 PM
The price doesn’t matter you fool, it’s the form that matters :tin:

Tell us who you would put the line through

Grow a set and discuss it Peter, here’s your chance


Come on a Pete, we see you’re  still on line, have  a go old flog  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-16, 10:09 PM
Oops, Pete’s now logged out. Done the bolt  :lol:   :lol:
What a gutless flog    :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-18, 07:30 PM


KO'd  -- never again

                                'K' is for Kensington -------- and 'keep out', 'keep away' et al

 As for Sydney, the 'Kenso' is not Randwick and a heavy track will not help
.............. after scratchings ......the fields were not even inflated ......

[Even so Monty included 7 of the 9 winners in Sydney .......including, for the $2.2k quadrella,  the four winners.]

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-18, 07:42 PM


A deception of punters .........plain and simple -- -- an RVL product with no integrity



Race 9 at Flemington on Saturday should not be run


........ in Melbourne ..... on a Saturday....  as the final leg of the Quadrella ......this is not sane

......... the F4 paid some $30,000..............

With a national F4 pool on the race of some $300k ............a one in ten outcome is a disgrace ....... a predictable and predicted disgrace.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-19, 08:30 PM

................kennel kids apparently speechless


......unable to believe my predictive insights on Wednesdays.....they are ensconced in the kennel licking their wounds, among other things.

.........probably taking time to prepare a response to my insights .......one can only hope they had R9 covered and took a motza from the pool. .......... as usual.

The kennel-kids are unbeatable.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jul-19, 10:11 PM
Sorry Peter,

Have not finished counting the money yet....

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-19, 10:51 PM

A KK Kid flushed out

..... a  flash of false bravado ...... before the chain is pulled  again ... take it away boys!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-20, 08:49 AM
Creedence salutes for the astute whilst Mair lacks any  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: nemisis on 2020-Jul-20, 10:05 AM
Peter, forget R9 at Flemington.
It was nothing more than the best straight six horse beating the 2nd best straight six horse.

R5 is a better race to draw attention to.
Exemplar in the different colours looked a vastly improved version to the one I was backing in the navy blue.
Once again a leading Victorian trainer makes Lloyd Williams look he didn't quite know what he was doing.
The grey son of Galileo punched well above his handicap rating....didn't he?
Was it unexpected? ......only by the 'form experts' I'd say........not by the stable.

Points to you for your enthusiasm, but your inflated field cause is a lost cause.
Try fighting for a level playing field and you will get some support.

Can we get a Melbourne version of Archie please?   :lol:  

I need to add I was only watching on Saturday.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-20, 12:22 PM
I was so close to getting mairs lotto F4 divvy.
That's why we take them dumbarse😃

Had 3 of the 4 in by ticket😢
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-20, 10:26 PM


It is not just Saturdays

.............today at Smellerat............. the Q paid $20 k .............. unacceptable!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-21, 11:36 AM
Glad it did I got a share of it  :biggrin:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-21, 04:17 PM



Archie's insights -- Is this why long-shots go to the lead?

Archie Butterfly has been doing more stinging than floating in recent posts  -- some hallmarks of a 'disrepute' offence.

He  has a sharper eye and mind than most in reading how a race unfolded and, possibly, why.

His race reviews are different to the usual insider's.

.............could be a useful addition to a stewards panel.

Whatever, it seems that no-hoper leaders are sometimes playing a role different to 'just trying for 10th'.

.........may be all bluff and bluster.......... I would like to see the police taking an interest in the scrutiny of phones.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-21, 05:47 PM
Hey Peter, did you take advantage of the gift that the forumites left you. We were feeling rather SENTIMENTAL   :lol:   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-22, 07:45 AM


Today is 'wondering Wednesday'

                        .......... the portents from the Caulfield  nominations are not good
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-22, 05:34 PM

'God knows' ------ not about Saturday


At Caulfield, fields are not generally inflated but, with a 56kg minimum weight, most runners do not have the relative benchmark rating to carry this minimum weight -- based on pre-post markets, many scheduled to run have no hope of winning but they will get $2,000 for completing the course.

In Sydney, the fields are inflated and the spread of pre-post prices suggest most are there to pick up the $3,500 for running 10th.

........it is winter......... worn wet tracks..........et al.......... but wasting prize-money money like this is not a sensible use of money taken from punters.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-22, 06:46 PM

RVL warmed up today with inflated fields -- the 'worst' 5 F4s averaged $12,000 ... this has to stop.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: ratsack on 2020-Jul-22, 09:47 PM
Are you ever going to talk about pokies ?

set at 87% regardless of the field size or interference
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-22, 09:48 PM
Only you can stop yourself peter....oh and a shrink.

You clearly are unbalanced 💖
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-22, 09:56 PM
Hey Peter, did you take the gift that I gave you today, my Sentimental Friend.🤗

$6 the place and a 12k F4. Hope you listened old mate but I suspect, seeing as you would have demanded it scratched, that you missed the opportunity  :yes:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-22, 09:58 PM
.....remember when 16% would be the maximum takeout

That was the promise ... the pokies 13% takeout  was better .. no need to read a form guide ...just play.

The new reality is that, with 'rough' inflated field racing, the takeout for most punters is 100% ... corporates and syndicates 'cop the lot'.

...... the day of reckoning is coming ....... that Archie boy is bringing the reality of racing into disrepute.... and once the penny drops .......... most punters will be demanding reforms.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-22, 10:05 PM
So did you?🤗
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-23, 06:58 PM


...... I did.......... demand reforms ............25 years ago .......... and daily since
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-23, 07:21 PM
😆😆😆😆😆
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-23, 09:26 PM

R3............Caulfield............. What is going on here?


https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/caulfield-20200725/mark-needham-handicap-race-4/form
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jul-24, 06:41 AM
Hmmmm,

Possibly  a horse race......

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-24, 07:25 AM
Are we surprised that Mair doesn’t know that   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-25, 08:02 PM

RVL can schedule quality racing


Do not tell me that inflated-field racing is not destructive.

What a difference proper fields make --- Monty who is usually caught out by RVL's inflated fields included every winner in his Top5 for Caulfield ............ not least the quadrella ..............but also the early Q .... in all the 8 quadrella races his Top5 included 3 of the first-four finishers.

In Sydney, Monty missed only the 'blowout' race 2 --------- he included the winner of the other 8 races within his top 3 selections  ......... a magnificent performance given the low-grade big-fields.

 ............ if the kennel kids went looking for Lassiter's reef as the usually do they would have come unstuck ....... needless to say......come Sunday.....they will have creamed the program as usual.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-26, 10:06 AM
Yes Pete. Well done monty. 5 picks in every races. With fields of 8. What a great effort👏👏👏👏👏

Pure genius taking 625 quaddy combinations to collect $61🥴

No wonder you were driven out of the industry 😆😆
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-26, 10:13 AM

Money for jam and old rope -- 100/1-shots get paid for completing course.

Much appreciated, as were the not-inflated fields at Caulfield yesterday, it exposed another problem of paying 'prize-money' down to 10th.

The 'prize-money' becomes 'appearance money' when there are 10 or less horses in the race -- connections sensibly left some 20 'no-hopers' in the races at SPs averaging 100/1 or more and duly finishing well down the track.

....what was sensible for these 'connections' was surely not for an industry too readily inclined to waste funds contributed by punters.

Paying prize-money down to 10th for other than the few best races nationally ..is dumb policy and usually destructive of fair racing.

.......if RVL comprehends 'integrity' ......it would not do this.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-26, 10:26 AM
The only people happy with yesterday’s farce were the computer room professionals who worked the %s and got the paltry quaddy.

Rank and file punters were filthy with it and will leave in droves if the poor dividends continue. They voted with their wallets yesterday as the quaddy pool was stripped by about 25% due to lack of interest with the small fields and predictably pathetic dividend :bulb:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-27, 09:30 AM

Hail a disciple!


.............. on Racenet this morning:

..............debate rages in Victoria about whether lowly-rated horses should be banned from competing on the professional circuit, .............

Victorian racecaller Terry Bailey got tongues wagging when he said the industry must review the problem of low-rated horses running out of their class to merely run for prizemoney paid down to 10th place.

He claimed it was a blight on the industry and was eroding punter confidence.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-27, 09:58 AM
Finally Mair finds someone to agree with him.  :lol:

Mind you, we’ve all seen how bad Terry’s punting ability’s  on “Get On” so that makes 2 clueless people with the same brain fart  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-29, 08:56 PM

Saturday quandary at the Vale of Tears


........... contemplating this low-grade track with low-grade horses gets more frightening when races 8&9 are slated to have capacity fields .......... tears before bedtime, very probably.

..............  it is a similarly daunting prospect with a heavy track Royal Randwick and low-grade contenders hoping for 10th.

     ............bet light ............. and have a happy horses birthday.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-31, 10:24 AM


...... better to know on Friday than Sunday


It is very likely that the Vale of Tears will be well watered tomorrow .......... confusion confounds 4, 5, 7 & 8.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: napes on 2020-Jul-31, 11:05 AM
Hopefully the quaddie will pay more than $61.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-31, 11:44 AM

Hope is not a winning strategy

............. while a quadrella (or F4) paying less than $100 means the favourites were successful.............it is hard to complain about that.

Conversely, a quadrella (or F4) paying more than $1,000 usually suggests 'something' has gone wrong -- most likely these days it is 'impeders' wanting to run 10th that frustrate the form .......and with big fields of runners 'out of form' or otherwise uncompetitive, it is also a situation that can be exploited by 'betting one ready' under the radar.

........ 'best value' quadrellas (and F4s) would pay under $10 ............ the 'worst value' ones pay like lotto.

Sadly the hype about 'big fields best' and 'long-priced winners adding value' are paste-pearls cast before easily fooled punters.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Jul-31, 11:48 AM
IDIOT - get help!

Your comment has been proven to be wrong over and over before the race.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-31, 02:49 PM
[
............. while a quadrella (or F4) paying less than $100 means the favourites were successful.............it is hard to complain about that.

........ '

Wrong again Mair. :tin:

The pool was about 25% less due to the small fields. Punters were not interested in the predictable small divvy and voted by not investing

The professionals with the computers worked their percentages and were the only winners on the day
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-31, 02:50 PM
Hope is not a winning strategy

.............
Sadly the hype about 'big fields best' and 'long-priced winners adding value' are paste-pearls cast before easily fooled punters.

It is hoped that you are not so stupid. This probably ranks with the dumbest thing you’ve said around here  :lol:

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Jul-31, 05:06 PM

They do not come much sillier than this not-wily bloke

I would love to know who writes this kids lines for him.

The pool was about 25% less due to the small fields. [Note: Pool size has nothing to do with relative dividends]

Punters were not interested in the predictable small divvy [Note: punters bet most on favourites ........that's why they are the favourite.]

..... and a boomerang opens a head wound [It is hoped that you are not so stupid.]


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Jul-31, 06:09 PM
.

 [/i] [Note: Pool size has nothing to do with relative dividends]



This now ranks as your dumbest brain fart. More runners more chances in parimutuel betting. However,you dumbass you missed the point.
Punters stayed away in droves due to the small fields and the looming piddling divvy



[/i] [Note: punters bet most on favourites ........that's why they are the favourite.]

Win & place pools reflect this. Not quaddies & F4s. That’s why your brain farts are irrelevant
Those pools are proof that

 the evidence has smashed you in the face like a wet fish but your such and u pin employable dunce you don’t realise it




..... and a boomerang opens a head wound [It is hoped that you are not so stupid.]


Your career in the racing industry will not come back like a boomerang




Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-01, 06:21 PM

...... better to know on Friday than Sunday


It is very likely that the Vale of Tears will be well watered tomorrow .......... confusion confounds 4, 5, 7 & 8.

Mair wrong again.  :lol:  Keep putting your brain farts up idiot. You keep everyone amused   :lol:

Zero confusion.  Favourites win 3 of the above races and runs 2nd in the other

Actually, there was confusion. Mair looked at the form guide and had no idea  :lol:
Who in their right mind could have been confused about the group class horse, Brooklyn Hustle :no:


Oh, and with the bigger fields and the horses for courses nature of the valley, punters flocked  back to the quaddy With the prospect of a good divvy :clap2:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-01, 08:06 PM


Never bet at the Valley [ignore the wily fool].


........... today was another predictable illustration of why punters should never even open the form guide for any race meeting run at Moonee Valley ....it is truly a vale-of-tears.

.......... a truly disgraceful condemnation of RVL continuing to run races of this track ....... the Q paid $45,000 and three of the associated F4s paid $6,000 ............. only slow learners will not heed this lesson.

 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-02, 07:59 PM


Jockeys fitted with blinkers

As their new pay rise kicked in at the start of the fresh racing season, Victorian jockeys were reminded of their obligations to help promote the sport in a positive light to as many people as possible.

Among those most disadvantaged by inflated fields, jockeys are close to the top of the list.

......... jockeys told 'they are on a good thing', by 'connections' betting big',  are under pressure to get the job done.

...when they do, they are sometimes 'forced' to test the rules .....and suspensions for doing so are costly unless the connections back up with compensation for 'time out'.

I consider it disgraceful that an earned pay rise for jockeys was accompanied by an 'enterprise agreement' that compromises their entitlement to speak freely.
 
The Victorian racing minister should speak up about the steady corruption of the industry by RVL.



Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-03, 07:27 AM

Inflated fields, rough results, loser-only customers please --- punters taken to the cleaners


...... who would have thought?

Australian punters propping up global bookmaker profits

Australia's gambling addiction has propped up some of the world's biggest corporate bookmakers during the pandemic, sparking fresh calls for a fresh federal government crackdown.

Several foreign-owned bookies have reported to shareholders a massive boost in takings during the three months from April to the end of June, as well as an increase in share prices since the global outbreak of COVID-19.

...............Ladbrokes ........... Australian business had performed "exceptionally well" in growing by 76 per cent ............. accounted for half of its global sports business revenue.

...........PointsBet, which partners with Fox Sports Australia's coverage of AFL, ........... reported a 330 per cent jump in revenue on last year


https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-punters-propping-up-global-bookmaker-profits-20200802-p55ht8.html

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-03, 08:08 PM


Daniel Andrews gives Victorian racing the green light to continue

I have only admiration for most recent Victorian premiers, not least John Cain jr, Steve Bracks  and now Daniel Andrews............  Jeff Kennett, a man for the time, has a continuing credible relevance, akin to Paul Keating.

.. ..... that said, the racing in Victoria has become 'institutionally corrupted' and I would like Daniel Andrews to bite the bullet in due course and commission a royal commission of relevance to the whole of Australia.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-05, 07:36 PM


.......... it is 'oh no' day..... Wednesday...... acceptance day

The nominated 'applicants' accepted to run on Saturday have been decided ...... the prospects for punters are not good.............. the prospects for fixed odds bookmakers are for a bonanza.

One focal point is RVL and the Flemington meeting.

................half the horses that RVL accepted to run should not have been ............ the SP market says most have no chance of winning .... unfortunately 'those most' have a very good chance of being paid generous 'appearance fees' ......only needing to run 10th.

... .........on the plus side, provided the no-hopers do not get in the way ....... there are few winning chances in most races .... alas, the no-hopers routinely do get in the way ....out for a run they go to the front ............ run out of puff ......... fall back off the lead ............. and disrupt a fair race.

...... for plain plundering of most punters the last .. race 9  ........... is a standout ........ over the notorious 1400 with a capacity field (15 + 5e) ............. few accepted to run have a credible claim......... and the F4 and quaddie will likely be a rort, as usual .......... a benefit-program for fixed-odds bookmakers.

............a wet track wont help

............... and that goes in spades for Rosehill


........... bet light .......... tape and replay later ........ there are some good movies on now

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-07, 08:42 PM


......... only one sleep left ...... the anti-santa will be taking all your money tomorrow
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-07, 09:24 PM


.... apologies for mistake

......there are no (unseen) good movies on where I live ........ there are few bettable races on either ............. a wet day with nothing else to do spells 'problem'   .... in the morning, practice handling the problem  ... take your wallet and a pair of scissors ..... cut up the notes ......... and tell the boys to 'take it away' when you push the full-flush button.         
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-08, 07:35 PM


Inflated fields ....and so it came to pass,


..................R9 in Melbourne was a disgrace ........ the F4 paid some $30,000............. as I said:

.......... it is 'oh no' day..... Wednesday...... acceptance day

...... for plain plundering of most punters the last .. race 9  ........... is a standout ........ over the notorious 1400 with a capacity field (15 + 5e)  -- 13 started ............. few accepted to run have a credible claim......... and the F4 and quaddie will likely be a rort, as usual .......... a benefit-program for fixed-odds bookmakers.


....................in Sydney, the should-never-be-run HIGHWAY ROBBERY race paid $60,000 + for the F4

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-09, 02:50 PM

A Racenet racing writer

...................had this to say about the 9th at Flemington:

FLEMINGTON QUADDIE KILLER    I’ve got no stats to back it up but Flemington more than any other track seems to always throw up a left field result to explode most punters' quaddies.

........... gentle readers may well ask 'why does he not know the stats' ..... especially about RVL running inflated fields in 'the last' over 1400m at both Flemington or Caulfield ........... a rough result can be predicted on Wednesday.

....those gentle readers that have a bet could also suggest it does not matter if it is the last or first leg ...... these predictably rough rort-races are simply unfair .....making the rort the last is just plain nasty as many would have had 3 up and good chances in the 4th.

....the racing media men have a job to do ......... just do it properly ....and do not say 'it is not my job' to get the stats............. bone-lazy is not a disease it is an attitude.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-09, 07:02 PM

alas, the no-hopers routinely do get in the way ....out for a run they go to the front ............ run out of puff ......... fall back off the lead ............. and disrupt a fair race.

...... for plain plundering of most punters the last .. race 9  ........... is a standout ....


Oh well Mair wrong again  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-09, 07:12 PM


Would you believe it ....... the favourite never got a clear run?

Savvy Lad ($4.20F) - Flemington R9................... it was a bit of a horror show and it might pay to put a line through the run. Michael Walker settled the 4YO gelding back in the field from barrier three and he remained in traffic for much of the 1410m event. He got into a bumping duel at the top of the straight, had to change course a couple of times and, after ducking back to the inside, picked up again to finish strongly


[........ and here was I thinking the cat had got the puppy's tongue ........ but, no, just a silly, not wily, comment]
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Antitab# on 2020-Aug-09, 07:27 PM
Drop off Pete.

Flemington was a punters delight on Saturday

Races 4,5,7,8 were won by favourites

Races 2,3 and 6 were all won by Oliver on second favourites at 3/1, 4/1and 4/1.

Race 1 was 6/1.

Last winner was 16/1, hardly unfindable.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-09, 08:24 PM



[b.... sadly]...... antitab has contracted the wily virus[/b]

....... a virulent affliction reflecting in a loss of commonsense ........ I said only that the 9th was a raffle 

I got the MN extra quadrella in a canter ......and was live into the 9th with four............including 2nd.

...........my  posting to my subscribers on Saturday said:

......it is that bad that MN -- especially the early small-field races --is probably preferable to Sydney

...even so, ...... for plain plundering of most punters the last .. MN race 9  ........... is a standout ........ over the notorious 1400 with a capacity field (13 after scratchings) ............. few accepted to run have a credible claim......... and the F4 and thus the quaddie will likely be a rort, as usual .......... a benefit-program for fixed-odds bookmakers.


[....... antitab should not take any riding instructions from a proven dog....... someone that only ever robotically  contradicts anything I say without any ratioinal thought or consideration]
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-10, 08:20 AM

Would you believe it ....... the favourite never got a clear run?

Savvy Lad ($4.20F) - Flemington R9................... it was a bit of a horror show and it might pay to put a line through the run. Michael Walker settled the 4YO gelding back in the field from barrier three and he remained in traffic for much of the 1410m event. He got into a bumping duel at the top of the straight, had to change course a couple of times and, after ducking back to the inside, picked up again to finish strongly


[........ and here was I thinking the cat had got the puppy's tongue ........ but, no, just a silly, not wily, comment]



  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:  Who wrote that rubbish  :lol:   :lol:

It’s exactly why I watch replays and dunces like you don’t. I suggest you go back and open your eyes
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-10, 09:37 AM


Gambling giant Tabcorp -- bludging off inflated field racing.


Gambling giant Tabcorp is shaking up the management of its under-pressure wagering business, after writing down the division by $1 billion and announcing the departure of the company's chief executive and chairman.


Imagine what would happen if racing administrators were required to run racing fairly.

One would be astounded if Tabcorp is not making 'heaps' now on its fixed-odds betting business.

Inflated fields have made a mockery of form guides, especially in Melbourne.  On many races Tabcorp would have a skinner, copping the lot of punters bets after not paying out any 'wins' of substance on rough results.

The other corporates can hardly believe their luck with the coming of  inflated-field racing coupled with 'loser-only' customer filters to exclude those in the know.

If Tabcorp cannot make a quid now the prospects are bleak -- unless they are planning 'initiatives' even more detrimental to most of their customers.

..................... I have a dream........... Tabcorp becomes the punters' hero .............. tells punter-milking administrators 'all bets are off' ....... demands that administrators offer a 'fair-racing' product ...... no inflated fields......no reward for running 10th...........
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-10, 02:13 PM
Drop off Pete.

Flemington was a punters delight on Saturday

Races 4,5,7,8 were won by favourites

Races 2,3 and 6 were all won by Oliver on second favourites at 3/1, 4/1and 4/1.

Race 1 was 6/1.

Last winner was 16/1, hardly unfindable.


Thanks for pointing that out anti. Pete doesn’t like facts, he was wrong again.

He’s qualified to label administrators inept because he knows full well what it takes  as he specialised in “ineptness”
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2020-Aug-10, 02:19 PM
We need a new category of thread - "Boring" threads.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-10, 07:01 PM


............everyone ...............not only antitab

[....... antitab should not take any riding instructions from a proven dog....... someone that only ever robotically contradicts anything I say without any rational thought or consideration]


...........what may be boring to some may be of interest to others ......including students of public personal behaviour albeit with their identity disguised ....... when I post a comment ...............just wait for a nominal-dog to contradict it ........ whatever I say is contradicted ....... sometime with a short delay after he knows what I said was so clearly correct ....... as MN Race9 was a rort identified on Wednesday.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-10, 10:15 PM


Australian media 'tongue tied' with no semblance of independence

 ....................... while the charge is usually about newscorpse media .... it is also a more general offense.

The 'media watch' program tonight on ABC TV gave two damning illustrations of deliberately self-serving biased reporting.

These are the IVIEW links:

https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/afl/12542902

https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/devine/12542904

The prevalence of the truth being compromised by bullying deals with media organizations makes us all sensibly distrustful of all 'only good news' media ..... especially from the newscorpse press and internet feeds.

........... there is no sensible excuse to buy newscorpse tabloids to know what is going on ..... on the contrary the apparent newscorpse dedication is to delivering compromised and biased 'news' ... not least in the 'profession' of racing media 'journalism' by people with by-lines properly described as, de-facto, dictation-taking writers.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-13, 08:00 AM

Caulfield Saturday -- go hard and go early

---- -- the worst is saved for last and the main quadrella a no-go.

Race 9 at Caulfield on Saturday is a shocker, over the notorious 1400, it is another likely rort -- 15 +2e accepted and half are at pre-post odds averaging 50/1.......... and the track is likely to be heavy.

Race 6 is also suspect with 9 of the 14 accepted at pre-posts of 10/1or worse.

..........as both races are 'should not be runs' ...the focus is on the first five races with fields of 10  or less.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-13, 05:09 PM
So the latest brain fart is you can’t have horses over $10.....you idiot  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-13, 08:48 PM


Thanks wily, insightful as usual?

.................. or just a routine, knee-jerk, barking dismissal of anything I say ........

..........one perhaps best described in one-word  b............t.......... ...with 8 or 9 letters....we will see on Saturday.

................all we know now is that, come Sunday, you will have nailed the quadrella ...not least the 6th and 9th.

What does wily think of the 9th?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-14, 07:37 AM

Thanks wily, insightful as usual?

.................. or just a routine, knee-jerk, barking dismissal of anything I say ........

..........

Well, stop sprouting 💩 and you won’t get that reaction.

Self evaluation is required from you Peter
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-14, 07:42 AM

Thanks wily, insightful as usual?

.................. or just a routine, knee-jerk, barking dismissal of anything I say ........

..........one perhaps best described in one-word  b............t.......... ...with 8 or 9 letters....we will see on Saturday.

................all we know now is that, come Sunday, you will have nailed the quadrella ...not least the 6th and 9th.

What does wily think of the 9th?

Peter failing the honesty test again.  :clap2:
Show me how many times I’ve claimed to have got the quaddy
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-15, 07:33 PM


Inflated fields of no-hopers -- outcome as expected

Race 6 is also suspect with 9 of the 14 accepted at pre-posts of 10/1or worse.

..................that suspicion was 'on the money' .............. the F4 paid $60,000+.........the average price of the runners was 30/1 .....and 20/1 + if the outlier at 125/1 is excluded.

Luckily for me Monty had the 20/1 winner as his second selection (and he earlier had the 10/1 winner of R4 as his second selection).

... and Monty creamed the  $800 MN quadrella ..... it was a close run thing at the end as it required an exemplary display of showmanship from Willie Pike to get the odds-on pop home.

........what will the wily one say about MN R6?............ an apology perhaps


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-15, 07:43 PM
Why the  :censored:  would I apologise to you, you brain dead  moron.  :lol:
I backed the winner :clap2: :clap2:

Sadly I had 3 of the F4 as well. Could have been handy getting 48k but I lacked the balls to execute
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-15, 07:55 PM

.......it was just a suggestion to test the mentality

...remember this So the latest ...............is you can’t have horses over $10.....you idiot

 ............no one would be surprised that wily 'backed the winner' @20/1 and had 'three of the four' in an F4 paying $60k............ no one would be surprised...........no one.......regular as clockwork
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-15, 08:05 PM
.......it was just a suggestion to test the mentality

...remember this So the latest ...............is you can’t have horses over $10.....you idiot

 ............no one would be surprised that wily 'backed the winner' @20/1 and had 'three of the four' in an F4 paying $60k............ no one would be surprised...........no one.......regular as clockwork

Once again. are you doubting me?

Show some guts and be direct you turd
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-15, 10:05 PM


.................it is not just me pointing wily up.............. he needs to be more honest.

............. wily needs to re-direct himself onto a path of righteousness ........ recognizing when he has said something stupidly knee-jerk reactive ....... to apologize........... and resolve to be more thoughtfully accepting of the bleeding obvious.

......his long-claimed record of 'betting success' makes a mockery of credibility.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Gintara on 2020-Aug-15, 10:32 PM
Caulfield Saturday -- go hard and go early

---- -- the worst is saved for last and the main quadrella a no-go.

Race 9 at Caulfield on Saturday is a shocker, over the notorious 1400, it is another likely rort -- 15 +2e accepted and half are at pre-post odds averaging 50/1.......... and the track is likely to be heavy.

Race 6 is also suspect with 9 of the 14 accepted at pre-posts of 10/1or worse.

..........as both races are 'should not be runs' ...the focus is on the first five races with fields of 10  or less.

Come on Pete, one of the most promising gallopers in the country was in the 9th and won well. You could have done no form and seen that, what's your excuse for failing?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-15, 11:11 PM

Hind-sight can be illustrative of showmanship

................. even non believers would have bent their knee at the 200.............. it was odds-on....       I won well when it got up.

.... as you say it is a good horse ...up 10 kg in BM rating over recent starts.........  it did win ........ not bad to come from well back over 1400m at Caulfield.

Nonetheless, had the F4 been filled by the 2-5 runners the F4 'would have paid' well in excess of $60,000 an the quadrella some $25,000 +

........all is well that ends well ............. but many were on their knees at the 200

One lucky outcome does not excuse RVL running rort races that exploit most punters.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Aug-16, 12:13 AM
IDIOT!

The TAB's business is to exploit punters every single race!

It is what they do!

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-16, 08:08 AM

.................it is not just me pointing wily up.............. he needs to be more honest.

............. wily needs to re-direct himself onto a path of righteousness ........ recognizing when he has said something stupidly knee-jerk reactive ....... to apologize........... and resolve to be more thoughtfully accepting of the bleeding obvious.

......his long-claimed record of 'betting success' makes a mockery of credibility.


So peter, you’re still doubting me.?

Who else is or is that another of your bald faced lies
Want to have a wager on your claims?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-16, 08:22 AM


.................. just saying ............ the facts speak for themselves

........  my Wednesday identification of races that should not be run ...because they defraud punters......... has been consistently correct.

Punters collectively should ask for a better deal.

In Sydney the Highway-Robbery races, if run at all,  should be the first race not the first leg of a quadrella ......... there is no comparable form to base judgments of outcomes.

The performance of RVL in Melbourne is however the stand out ......... inflated-field races are deliberately contrived to be unfair to all involved ....... punters, owners, jockeys, stud masters .......... all except the fixed-odds bookies selecting loser-only customers.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-16, 08:46 AM
No Peter. You called me a liar and now are running from that like the weak as piss of shit you are

Now apologies

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-16, 07:45 PM


How good is that? --- RVL cant find contenders for 10th for all races.


Never forget the last couple of weeks ---- sensibly sized fields in the early races gave most punters a chance.

........ getting the early MN quadrella has been well with in reach.... a win is better than a loss.

..............there is nothing enticing about having no chance to collect a lotto-like dividends for F4 and Quadrella outcomes reflecting inflated fields and unfair racing.

...... there was a time ..............for all time prior to 'dollars for 10th' corrupting race outcomes.

RVL needs to be pulled into line with national policies precluding 'deliberate detriment' to consumers.

[In Sydney, the running of Highway Robbery races is similarly deserving of condemnation ....... just a ruse to sucker country people to be an 'on course' presence when 'no one' would sensibly be there.]

 




Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-16, 07:53 PM


....as an aside

....................a barking dog .... routinely derides me offensively ...  especially after I point up apparent inconsistencies in his postings ............ as the bible says .......I forgive those who know not what they do.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-16, 10:47 PM
As usual you’re  too spineless to answer the question   :lol:

Why didn’t you back the great Bella Nipotina Peter? Even monty found it even though it took him 5 goes at his dart board  :lol:

Oh that’s right it’s price was longer than $10 so it wasn’t on your radar💩
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-18, 08:37 PM


.............. vote early, vote often........... another racing-rort at the Vale of Tears

.............no need to wait for acceptances tomorrow.............don't even open the form guide for Melbourne on Saturday.......with the track to be wet, the Vale is a no-go arena in spades............you will regret it if you do get sucked in.

RVL plays most punters off a break ............ and still they roll up.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-18, 09:57 PM
Backing Bella Nipotina results in tears of Joy for us smart ones. A Perfect Jewel can be found anywhere Peter.
Even in East Afrika if you have your eyes open and your mind isn't closed....
Pity you're too stupid to realise, even when we spoon feed them to you🤣
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-19, 07:32 AM

......try to keep up

Luckily for me Monty had the 20/1 winner as his second selection (and he earlier had the 10/1 winner of R4 as his second selection).

........... this, posted last Saturday, meant I won well when B N won the 6th.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-19, 09:04 AM
Monty threw 5 darts, Peter
I threw 1 and got the bullseye

Now as to keeping up, if anyone was stupid enough to employ you again you would have stopped Bella from running due to her being one if your "no hopers"😏
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-21, 10:48 AM



.................what would Satan say about the Vale tomorrow?

He would remind us that last year this meeting ran 'true to form' with the average SP of the winners being 3/1 and both quadrellas paying $500.

He would note that, across the program tomorrow, the clear pre-post favourites have an SP of less than 3/1 and few others, mostly at long odds, are given a chance  .............most probably should not have been accepted to run.

......he would be on the hotline to heaven asking for a rain-check on the wet track still promised.

                                          ...................still............... on reflection ............... get behind me Satan!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-21, 05:58 PM

He would note that, across the program tomorrow, the clear pre-post favourites have an SP of less than 3/1 and few others, mostly at long odds, are given a chance  ..!


What a surprise the dunce that is Mair is covering his arse  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-21, 07:22 PM

No way out for punters

Tomorrow could be the outcome that reveals the Vale as a box canyon for punters.

I was just checking if the laying dog would sleep til Sunday, when he reveals his unusual successes.

.......alas, once he hears the footsteps of the independent observer, he is awake and barking, on cue.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-21, 07:34 PM
No way out for punters

Tomorrow could be the outcome that reveals the Vale as a box canyon for punters.

I was just checking if the laying dog would sleep til Sunday, when he reveals his unusual successes.

.......alas, once he hears the footsteps of the independent observer, he is awake and barking, on cue.

 But Peter, I told you about Bella Nipotina in advance

We’re you asleep at the wheel?

Are you going to continue to lie? No wonder you were sacked from your job   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-21, 07:53 PM


........ is this a broken record........... all I hear is brainless barking ......  the rest is a never seen write-off
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-21, 08:20 PM
Mair, too scared to face the facts. What a coward   :lol:

Oh, and we all know you don’t hear anything aside from your own self centred brain farts
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-22, 07:34 PM


The cup runneth over ...........tears we cry

.............no need to wait for acceptances ............don't even open the form guide for Melbourne on Saturday.......with the track to be wet, the Vale is a no-go arena in spades............you will regret it if you do get sucked in.


............... a butterfly flaps it wings and chaos is identified:

Until this afternoon there had never (ever) been a race meeting cancelled on a StrathAyr track due to wet weather. None of them have ever been cancelled because of the state of the track. The track at the Valley was atrocious.

No track maintenance, no races. Moonee Valley must relinquish its race dates, and if the club won't do it voluntarily, the Racing Victoria must force their hand by stripping away the clubs programmed meetings.


........ can a butterfly be given a gig in the mainstream racing media? CLOSE THE VALE OF TEARS

[...... while in the arena of 'inflated-field' racing policy ........can someone in authority bring some commonsense to bear ............. the main quadrella race outcomes in Sydney today were a disgraceful illustration of greed over fairness..... the quadrella paid $20k ........... one F4 paid 60 k and the other three averaged $10 k............. this is disgraceful defrauding of most punters...the loyal customers putting the money in the racing tin!]


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-23, 08:06 PM


............... can you hear the encouraging sounds of a silence, a prelude to a full-blown inquiry?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-25, 09:29 PM

Tuesday assessments ... ahead of acceptances tomorrow


At Caulfield on Saturday there will be 3 races run over the notorious 1400 m course.

...... one is a G1, another is an open handicap, the one to focus on is the BM 90 ......... probably the last leg of the main quadrella .............. this will be a rort race .............. running 10th and getting $2,500  ensures a capacity field ........and a rough result. This is not right to start with.

The minimum weight of 56 kg means one-third of the nominations would not be entitled to carry the weight.

The probability is that some no-hopers will take the early lead, on the rail, before dropping back and impeding the runners behind them, those there to win.

........... what happens in the run to the line is unpredictable.

No one knows this nonsense better than RVL  ........ scheduling this race 'last' instead of 'first', is suggestive of a plan to maximize turnover on the MN quadrella ....... to disadvantage most punters.

                 ............ we all know that is not the right thing to do ....RVL does it routinely.

And they talk about integrity ................ on and on.............

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-26, 07:01 PM

Saturday............. too many horses .... too many that should not be there

Pleasingly RVL have scheduled the best races on Saturday for the main quadrella ... it will help but probably not much, the first leg is a raffle  ........ the day looms as rough across the board in both Sydney and Melbourne.

A glance at the 'accepted' fields will make that clear enough ... the fields are so big, and so inflated, with runners-resuming  and hopers-for-10th, that no punters could bet confidently.

One trick played early in the season is for some horses headed for breeding to be readied, and let go first up  , when younger others, expected to do well later, are not really there to win.

..........................there was some of that stars-in-the-sees in Sydney last Saturday.

.....for standout races to be avoided on Saturday, it is hard to go past races 3&4 in Melbourne............... both over the notorious 1400 m at Caulfield with 16 and 14 to run ......the early quaddie might pay for a modest home unit.
 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-29, 08:11 PM


Does inflating fields with 'hopers for 10th' disadvantage punters?

You bet it does.

............. a survey of punters that did bet today on the nonsense RVL serves up would be illustrative.

Even so Monty comfortably had 7 of the 9 in his 'five' in MN ....including the F4 in races 4&5

Sydney punters would also be feeling wounded.

........again, Monty had the early quadrella covered in his top three but came unstuck in 6&7 .........finishing with  7 of the 9 in his top 3.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-30, 07:36 AM
Hey Peter, why do you punters keep serving a Perfect Jewel up at such huge prices  :wacko:

Mind you, you wanted it scratched.......again........ because it was over $10  :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-31, 08:37 PM


.............. racing at the valley on Saturday ........... you can call it on Monday......... a looming vale of tears

Truth told to power, no races should be run on the vale-of-tears track ........... its raffle racing.

Last year the F4 on the Feehan paid $10k and on the RVL last-race-special $20k ........ the quadrella paid $6.5k.

....... we could get lucky this year ....RVL may decline to accept inflated-field nominations hoping to run 10th ..... the track could race fairly ...the forecast rain may not unsettle the track......... connections of good horses may decide to 'have a go' .... mostly connections of good horses do not run them at this track.

.............. sensible punters will take the tip.......and bet light if at all.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Aug-31, 09:13 PM
I’d ignore it as well Pete, given it’s another brain fart of yours that’s been exposed as absolute crap  :lol:

$10  :lol:  💎
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Aug-31, 10:10 PM


............that typical comment ....from a masked-crusader against most punters .... has no meaning
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-01, 08:17 AM
Plenty of meaning peter. How about you man up like a real “administrator/advocate” would

Do you still contend that horse @$10 should be scratched as they are too rough?
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Sep-01, 08:28 AM
Monty is a crook on Peter's Logic.....

Simply because he is in on the rip off of lazy punters too hopeless to do their wn form.

Given that he tips horses > $10 he has to be!

Fours

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-01, 08:45 AM
Has to be on Mairs twisted logic   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Sep-09, 06:46 PM


Saturday's inflated acceptances ........... let us play 'find the smokey'

There may be a couple of races in Sydney and Melbourne with modest fields ............. but the broader picture is for another illustration of punter deception.

Why would RVL allow 12 early 3yros to run over 1400m at Flemington in a so-called listed-race? ...... race 6 has 15 to run over 1400m, with most not entitled to the weight ..... and race 9 has 18 early 3yro fillies to run down the 1100m straight.........leave me out!

RNSW is generally more restrained .....but why run 16 at Rosehill over 1200 in race 8 ............ again with most not entitled to carry the allocated weight.

Can we have another loud call of administrators commitment to 'integrity' in the racing industry?

                    ................ and please look for likely, 'never win again', aged smokeys touched by the hand of a redeemer.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Sep-09, 07:53 PM


............. another RVL warm up at Ladbrokes Park today

                                    Ladbrokes would have been pleased.... very pleased!

......unbelievably, the quaddie paid $135,000 .......... the early quaddie...$7k.

Bring on Saturday --------- get in the very short queue to collect!

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-10, 09:20 AM
Thanks for the heads up Pete. Before they were scratched at the barriers by some moron I’ve jumped in and taken massive odds on 2 runners in the last.

It’s averaged out at over $50. 🤗

It appears to me the price accessors computers haven’t done their form on the race......let’s hope I’m right, eh😆
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: fours on 2020-Sep-10, 10:56 AM
wiley ole dog,

Sometimes the errors are so glaring that I wonder if it is a deliberate thing - to give them some cream for the work they do.....

Over your head Peter so forget it.

Fours
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-10, 12:08 PM
You may be right fours, "let it snow"😉😃
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Sep-10, 07:56 PM


A BLAST OF CANDOUR FROM A NEWSCORPSE SITE


I am astonished that a newscorpse owned racing site would publish this Q & A with pro punters

           https://www.punters.com.au/news/q-and-a-with-pro-punters%3a-part-i_192876/

Cop this for candour about the way administrators have fouled their nest in exploiting most punters ......... some extracts ..........

............exotics have been destroyed by the bookmakers taking volume from the pools, and also by the rebate system..............insane, and due to the fact the bookmakers are allowed to bet those exotic products without any money going into the pools. .............the corporate bookies bleeding the normal punters’ money out of the pools by offering tote products, and the syndicates flattening the dividends as they pursue rebates has laid waste to what was traditionally a good betting option. ...........For some bizarre reason, corporates are allowed to piggy-back the TAB dividends and offer them. How this has been allowed to happen is beyond belief. It’s ruined tote betting in Australia."It's ruined tote betting in Australia."
The only people playing in the pools are the pros – there’s no diverse public money in there as it’s all at the corporate bookies.
 
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-10, 10:29 PM
So now Mair cares what the pros think instead of the  average punter  :lol:
You just prostitute yourself constantly   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-11, 05:09 PM
Hey Mair, did you back Reposition today at Tuncurry.

I had to wait to see if it was going to be scratched at the barrier before snaffling the $51 and F4🤑
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-12, 05:15 PM
Thanks for the heads up Pete. Before they were scratched at the barriers by some moron I’ve jumped in and taken massive odds on 2 runners in the last.

It’s averaged out at over $50. 🤗

It appears to me the price accessors computers haven’t done their form on the race......let’s hope I’m right, eh😆

Hope you got the $34 on September Run Peter  :thumbsup:🍾🍾🥳🥳
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Sep-12, 08:01 PM

Monty was magnificent today............as usual.

In Melbourne .......... he did not include September Run (the late mail) but otherwise creamed the program ..... Crosshaven, Pretty Brazen, The Chosen One, Zoutori,  .......... EQ paid $25k............. Travimyfriend, ...........
This on a day when the F4s .....included 60k,30k,2x 10k, 5k and 2x3k. (................. a 1.66% box4 on the last returned $85.)

In Sydney.... he missed Badoosh (the late mail)............. and Discharged ............ but OK otherwise.

.................. Monty is not on the list of those advised by Thursday that 'something' has been got ready .............. but he is the standout tipster by far.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Sep-12, 08:13 PM


Can administrators set good example on ensuring integrity?

............  some illustrations of grossly unfair racing were predictable on Wednesday.

Saturday's inflated acceptances......... the broader picture is for another illustration of punter deception.


Why would RVL allow 12 early 3yros to run over 1400m at Flemington in a so-called listed-race? [F4 paid $3K][/u] ...... race 6 has 15 to run over 1400m, with most not entitled to the weight [F4 paid $60k] ..... and race 9 has 18 early 3yro fillies to run down the 1100m straight.........leave me out! [F4 paid $5k]

RNSW is generally more restrained .....but why run 16 at Rosehill over 1200 in race 8 ............ again with most not entitled to carry the allocated weight. [the F4 paid $80k]


Can we have another loud call of administrators commitment to 'integrity' in the racing industry?

                    ................ and please look for likely, 'never win again', aged smokeys touched by the hand of a redeemer.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-12, 08:40 PM
But peter, you don’t want those big priced runners running  :lol:

Well done to munty......45 darts and he found something but you still couldn’t    :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Sep-12, 08:53 PM


Monty can, and does routinely ...............

...................I can, and do, say on Wednesday where the administrators are rorting the punters


..... you should be endorsing my call to stop administrators taking advantage of most punters.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-12, 09:05 PM
Your calls, in the main, are stupid. Why in gods name would anyone support you. You are dishonest in the extreme  :bulb:

And who gives a shit about how many winners a profiteering tipster comes up with🥴
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Sep-12, 10:16 PM


..................... a dog with distemper

My calls are spot on ....... on Wednesday before the race is run on Saturday ... that's class!

........ as for Monty ................I think he does not bet ............... that may be why he is so good.

                  ..... he is very good................ very very good.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-13, 08:11 AM

..................... a dog with distemper

My calls are spot on ....... on Wednesday before the race is run on Saturday ... that's class!

........

  :lol:  You keep telling yourself that, old boy and in the meantime ask yourself one question

If you’re so good why are you arguing with a nobody on an Internet forum that no one comes to  :lol:

That’s what your class has delivered you, sacked from the industry & left to wallow on a defunct forum where all you do is expose your own incompetence


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Sep-13, 10:19 AM


This forum is one which industry professionals are likely to read but not post.

.......... any idea that I would 'argue' with you is fanciful .......... conversely your aggressive posts convey the aura of a debate.............and that might help sustain interest in a forum where few others initiate or sustain threads.

So, thanks for that .....no argument.

You can read what I say on Wednesdays as to likely rough outcomes ........ spot on stuff............. blind-freddy stuff.......yet still the administrators schedule races and accept nominations knowing most punters will be disadvantaged.

 ................... and you know that is unacceptable behaviour for an industry claiming 'integrity'.

Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-13, 10:31 AM
Aggressive   :lol:

No princess I’m just calling out your lies and brain farts.

On Wednesday you didn’t want September run to be in the field. Smart punters who do form got $34.🍾
Dunces like you just squeal that it should be scratched fromthe race because you deem it not good enough.

The truth of the matter is you are lazy And don’t know the first think about racing.
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Sep-17, 03:43 PM


Administrators salting the mine again for punters on Saturday

It is not carnival-time for the punters this Saturday.

Far too many runners 'accepted' to run are at pre-post prices that say say they should not have been.

Once connections paid fees to nominate and be accepted ........... and did not run no-hopers ...... now they get paid to run for 10th................. runners that do not get to the gates with the SP 20/1 or less should be scratched .............. the connections could bet their price down if they were truly there to win.

Whatever, on Saturday at Caulfield there are 3 races over the 1400m ........ a mares BM 90 with 14 to start, a 3yro fillies with 12 and a G1 with 16 to start............... hope and pray.....don't bet.

At Randwick there is the usual hwy-rob race 2 over 1,000 with 18 to start to wreck the early quadrella.......and the last race .....BM78 over 1400 with 16 to start makes the main quadrella a bit of a raffle as usual.

.......... this is not good racing administration!
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-17, 05:28 PM
Any racing administration is good racing administration as long as they don’t listen to your moronic brain farts :clap2:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-17, 05:46 PM
So let’s get this right.

 The failed racing administrator, P. Mair wants all of the group 1 horses like Streets if Avalon, BeGood Toya Mother, Dollar for Dollar, Madam Rouge, along with a raft of G2 & G3 horses, scratched from the race on Raceday due to their odds being too big  :lol:   :lol:  

No wonder you were sacked   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-19, 04:11 PM

Administrators salting the mine again for punters on Saturday

It is not carnival-time for the punters this Saturday.

Far too many runners 'accepted' to run are at pre-post prices that say say they should not have been.

Once connections paid fees to nominate and be accepted ........... and did not run no-hopers ...... now they get paid to run for 10th................. runners that do not get to the gates with the SP 20/1 or less should be scratched .............. the connections could bet their price down if they were truly there to win.

Whatever, on Saturday at Caulfield there are 3 races over the 1400m ........ a mares BM 90 with 14 to start, a 3yro fillies with 12 and a G1 with 16 to start............... hope and pray.....don't bet.

At Randwick there is the usual hwy-rob race 2 over 1,000 with 18 to start to wreck the early quadrella.......and the last race .....BM78 over 1400 with 16 to start makes the main quadrella a bit of a raffle as usual.

.......... this is not good racing administration!


Hey Pete, did you back Ideum or did you think it was scratched at the barriers by some brain dead wannabe administrator  :lol:   :lol:
Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: Peter Mair on 2020-Sep-19, 08:16 PM

Melbourne metropolitan racing

..................... a casual perusal of the acceptances on Wednesday says stay away ............. well away ....... from the determination of RVL to make a mockery of most punters patronage.

................ on Saturday at Caulfield there are 3 races over the 1400m ........ a mares BM 90 with 14 to start, a 3yro fillies with 12 and a G1 with 16 to start............... hope and pray.....don't bet.

............not bet on these races was good advice............. the F4s paid 3.5k, 15k and 27k

Worse was the consequences of inflated fields in the 7th  .............. F4 paid 15k............. and in the last, a so-called G3, delivered a 30k F4.

.................... as for the once tale-of-two-cities .............. only Sydney racing remains relevant .............. Melbourne is now ranking very low on the scale of quality racing.


Title: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold
Post by: wily ole dog on 2020-Sep-19, 09:11 PM
Pete, you didn’t back Odeum?