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Author Topic: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold  (Read 4440 times)

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Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-08, 06:04 PM Reply #50 »
Culling inflated fields

The consequences of paying generous prize-money for running 10th are ever more evident.

Race 8 at Rosehill -- a BM88 over 1100m -- has 16 starters and half of those are listed with pre-post odds of 25/1 and more.

Race 2 -- a Highway Robbery over 1200m -- has 17 of the 20 acceptors still in the field and 10 of those are 25/1 or more in the pre-post market.

Surely fair play demands that, for fields of more than 10 acceptors, those unable to be given any meaningful chance should be scratched -- i.e. if their SP with 10 minutes to go is 25/1 or more they just go home.

Well Mair, you got it wrong again  :sad:

Favourites saluted in both those races at Rosehill

Punters went home happy again :thumbsup:

Offline Dave

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« 2018-Sep-08, 09:38 PM Reply #51 »
WOD when you argue with morons they will drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience.........Pete has plenty of Moron experience

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Sep-12, 09:51 PM Reply #52 »

The rot has set in

Across Sydney and Melbourne on Saturday there are simply too many acceptors hoping to run 10th at worst.

These horses should not be accepted to compete if they are not there to win with a realistic chance.

Consider race 4 at Flemington -- 16 inexperienced 3 yro colts have accepted -- half the field is at pre-post odds suggesting 'no chance' and most of those have drawn the barriers closer to the inside.

The clear pre-post favourite -- Brutal -- has the right connections  --  is 2 from 2  -- has drawn 1 -- is expected to lead throughout -- and may well start odds-on.


Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-13, 08:41 AM Reply #53 »
The rot has set in

Across Sydney and Melbourne on Saturday there are simply too many acceptors hoping to run 10th at worst.

These horses should not be accepted to compete if they are not there to win with a realistic chance.

Consider race 4 at Flemington -- 16 inexperienced 3 yro colts have accepted -- half the field is at pre-post odds suggesting 'no chance' and most of those have drawn the barriers closer to the inside.

The clear pre-post favourite -- Brutal -- has the right connections  --  is 2 from 2  -- has drawn 1 -- is expected to lead throughout -- and may well start odds-on.

Peter
Expand on this and tell us before the race the horses names that you consider should not be in this field

Offline Gintara

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« 2018-Sep-13, 08:47 AM Reply #54 »
The rot has set in

Across Sydney and Melbourne on Saturday there are simply too many acceptors hoping to run 10th at worst.

These horses should not be accepted to compete if they are not there to win with a realistic chance.

Consider race 4 at Flemington -- 16 inexperienced 3 yro colts have accepted -- half the field is at pre-post odds suggesting 'no chance' and most of those have drawn the barriers closer to the inside.

The clear pre-post favourite -- Brutal -- has the right connections  --  is 2 from 2  -- has drawn 1 -- is expected to lead throughout -- and may well start odds-on.

Talk about lies, lies, lies & damn statistics.

16 horse field (1 scr)

$2.40 fav draw 1 (more than 40%)

Only two other horses under double figures - both drawn inside 9 (5 & 8 respectively)

Every horse drawn wider is double figures.

Simple facts don't back up your argument Pete  :no:

It's all good to have a rant Pete but at least be factual  :bulb:

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-13, 09:12 AM Reply #55 »

Simple facts don't back up your argument Pete  :no:

It's all good to have a rant Pete but at least be factual  :bulb:

Exactly why I challenge him in most of his posts

Even when he may have a valid point he backs it up with his lies and runs for the hills

His philosophy is that if you throw enough mud and lies some of it will stick. It’s clearly working on authorized  :sad:

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-13, 09:21 AM Reply #56 »
For what it’s worth I have a black booked horse in the 4th race. It’s massive odds. Not sure if I’ll back it or not
This is a high quality race with plenty of depth and should not be dismissed.
Plenty of value that will surprise those who are incapable of reading a form guide

I look forward to pegasybers pc thoughts on the race

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-15, 12:40 PM Reply #57 »
Quote from: Peter Mair on September 12, 2018, 22:51:13
The rot has set in

Across Sydney and Melbourne on Saturday there are simply too many acceptors hoping to run 10th at worst.

These horses should not be accepted to compete if they are not there to win with a realistic chance.

Consider race 4 at Flemington -- 16 inexperienced 3 yro colts have accepted -- half the field is at pre-post odds suggesting 'no chance' and most of those have drawn the barriers closer to the inside.

The clear pre-post favourite -- Brutal -- has the right connections  --  is 2 from 2  -- has drawn 1 -- is expected to lead throughout -- and may well start odds-on.

Peter
Expand on this and tell us before the race the horses names that you consider should not be in this field

Oeter, I note you have failed to address this simple and polite question

One can only assume your waiting to contribute with 5he value of hindsight to make it easier for you to manufacture a scenario to suit your bent :chin:
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-15, 12:43 PM by wily ole dog »

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-15, 04:44 PM Reply #58 »
Well peter.
Your concerns failed to matetialise  again.
Predictable results with punters winning again in a trouble free race

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Sep-18, 05:47 PM Reply #59 »


Chief steward appointed


Racing Victoria has confirmed Terry Bailey’s former deputy Robert Cram as the state’s new chief steward.

“I’m looking forward to helping each member of the panel continue to develop, while ensuring that we oversee safe, fair, clean and competitive racing for all participants across the state and for all punters betting on our racing,” Cram said.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Sep-24, 06:07 PM Reply #60 »

Reflect on Saturday -- low-grade and inflated fields

The 'worst' F4 dividends declared on Saturday were $75,000, 65,000 and 15,000.

The 75k was for the 1500m highway-robbery Race  2 in Sydney  -- 17 accepted, 13 started in a 'rural benchmark 60' event -- this is a warning for the Kosciusko-kaper in mid-October.

The 65k and 14k were for two 1,400m races at Caulfield  --  events notorious for rough results (as are 1400m events at Flemington.)

The 65k rort over 1400m was again effectively a BM 65  race for 3yro fillies -- this race should not have been run.

Melbourne metropolitan racing remains rough because of the inflated fields racing on tracks with problems.

It was pleasing that 7 of the 9 races at Rosehill 10 or less starters -- at Caulfield only 2 of the 9 had 10 or less.

......... the portents heading into a sprung RVL carnival are not good.


Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-24, 06:24 PM Reply #61 »
No rough results on Saturday. Favoured runners dominated.
Punters happy :bop:

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-24, 06:32 PM Reply #62 »
As to the BM65, here’s s a link to educate yourself
Sadly I jumped in on the early markets and got unders to what she started at :sad:

https://www.racing.com/form/2018-08-25/moonee-valley/race/3



Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Sep-24, 07:25 PM Reply #63 »
  Not too much wrong with Caulfield Race 8  on 22/09/2018 The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, over 1400 metres  and a crowded field.  Sure the favourite # 2 was a manufactured incorrect favourite, and that is why one must take full notice of the FORM.

 * VF140817 CF82209F * RACE NAME ID* [ CF82209F  2018. SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES,,,,,, 1400 mtrs]. COMPRUN 09-22-2018. AT 08:34:23 RESULT  [    1  10  8  2   ~    4  12    ] F4 $15,832.  # 1 $13.70 win.
 VF140817 CF82209F * SPD ORD TABNO [    4    1    3   12   16   13    9    8   15    5   11   10    2   14    7   ] T5 HI HIT. USE SPD UPTO 1450m
VF140817 CF82209F * SPD RATNG ORD [  999  977  966  962  962  942  924  912  912  910  906  894  890  878  845  ] /1. IN SPEED ORDER
VF140817 CF82209F * AT TRK n DIST SPD [ RW14 AV12 RW12 DB13 RW20 DB20 FL14 MV12 MV12 CF14 CF14 CF14 AV16 CF14 FL16  ] IN SPD ORD*
VF140817 CF82209F * RQOD SPD RORD [  5.4   6.8   8.7   9.5   9.5   15.2   26.2  40.3  40.3  44.6  50.2  78.2  89.8  126.1  321.2  ] $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS IN RATING ORDER *
VF140817 CF82209F * AVAL ODDS FIXD[                                                                                               ] MANUALLY KEY IN FIXED PRICES SPEED RATING ORDER
VF140817 CF82209F * WMSPD ORD TNO [     4     16     12      1      3     13      9     11     15      5     10      8     14      2      7     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  ]*SPL*
VF140817 CF82209F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  1022   996   992   987   979   972   961   946   945   940   937   935   915   890   875   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 CF82209F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  5.7   7.9   8.7   9.8   11.6   13.7   18.7   31   32   39.7   46.4   49.3   104.3   221.6   332.8   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *
VF140817 CF82209F * FXD ODDS AVAIL[   6  15  23  13  23  13  34  61  9  26  21  5  71  5  31  ]  FIXED ODDS AVAILABLE IN WMSPD ORDER

VF140817 CF82209F * GW$CLASS$ ORD [   3    13    1    16    15    8    9    2    12    5    14    11    4    10    7   ].  2 HOME O 14d  100m -.5k  ---  7y]  [ 8 LAND O 14d  200m -3k  ---  5y]  [ 3 SHOWTI 21d  0m -2k  4y]  [ 13 OREGON 21d  0m -4k  5y.
   
  * No 1  Jungle Cat was the Knowledge Base ( or  Mechanical Method )  Win selection in PP7's competition and available on the Forum well before the race was run.   

VF140817 CF82209F * KEY SPEED NOS [   1   +!. +I/C. +GW!. =*NK*.  .]>1.  4   +!.  5    7   +!.  8   +!.  +TJ!. 9   +I/C. +TJ!. 10   +!.  12   +!. +I/C. +TJ!. 13   +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. 14   +!.  +TJ!. 16   +I/C. +GW!.] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 2 +!. <. < 8 +TJ!.  +!. < ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 3  13  << 1  4  7  8  10  12  14  5  <<=BDUPL. *BP%P*= 4 <: ]. <<] S/WDual IS [ 1  1 kg. ] *

RESULT [   1  10  8  2   ~    4  12  ]    # 4 *!MUST KEEP!*d. # 1 *!MUST KEEP!*d. # 12 *!MUST KEEP!*d. # 2 *!MUST KEEP!*d. # 8 *!MUST KEEP!*d. SPCL TR/JK/COMBOS [  8  9  11 12 13 14 15 16 ] DBL CHK *HI$E=[ # 1 ] JUNGLE CAT]. *SCNDHI$E=[ # 7 ] HELLOVA ST}.  <<GW1+  [ 3 13 1 16 15 ]* LRWDV= [ 4  1  7  12  2  8  . +A= LR7D [ 10 ].  . +A= LR7D [ 14 ].  ] I/CCL=[  16  12  1  3  13  9  DUPGWPAC=[  1  5  8  9  13  14  15  ].* MKUP [  0   @ $ 0 ]** * INSURANCE VAL[  0 0 FXD= $0.  0 FXD= $0.] BET NOW! * VALUNOS [  ]* * T5TTLMVS[ 8 14 5 9 10   A S/A. DBLCHK TJC]. *LR7DS=[  10 6yo  14 6yo  ] *CRUSHD=[  7 2  8  10  15  ] ESP*[ 1  4  7  8  10  12  14  5  ]*]. * SPLRESIDS [ ** [  1  2  4  5  7  8  9  10  12  14  15  ] ** CONSIDER NSW/VIC TAB F4S + *SUPASPL [ 0  0kg ]. *BMVRDPL= 1  4  7  8  10  12  14  5  ***  RUN END NORMALLY  ***. CALC TIME=  2.4 Secs.

   Based on the very basic information not even requiring a computer to derive, just look at the Must Keep  selections:  # 4 comes fifth,  #  1  Wins, # 12 comes sixth,  # 2 comes fourth and # 8  comes  third and one of the two "seven days to last run" horses # 10 comes second.  The computer had rightly removed # 7  being an 8 year old and having one other problematic item of data as well, that made its selection marginal.
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-25, 09:28 AM by pegasyber »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Sep-24, 10:14 PM Reply #64 »

Having a lend of the punters

One can only pray for what the 'pega' says to be published on Friday with the names of the horses.

One can also only pray that the wily one gets the same newspaper on Sunday that we all get.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-25, 07:15 AM Reply #65 »
Did you look at the link?

It was there for all to see many days before the race. In fact the printed form even alerted you to it but many chose to ignore it.
Di$ you do any form on the race peter?
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-25, 07:32 AM by wily ole dog »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Sep-25, 07:43 AM Reply #66 »
  Peter, This was the information I was pointing to, and even here under the concept of a "mechanical Method"
 inflexible selection, only got one winner in four.
Quote
Online pegasyber
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Send PM
« 2018-Sep-22, 07:56 AM Reply #126 »
 Computer "Mechanical System" picks.

SR4  # 6 Sin To Win
SR6  # 3 Dixie Blossoms
SR7  # 6  Santos
MR8 # 1  Jungle Cat
   Still unsure as to whether one can be or remain profitable over the long term from this form of gambling. 
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-28, 06:46 AM by pegasyber »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Sep-27, 08:29 PM Reply #67 »

Sunday bloody Sunday?

One can only wonder why RVL would allow four races to be run over 1400 m at Caulfield on Saturday.

Race 2, with only 10 acceptors, is rated 'no bet' by PDC -- the others have inflated fields,  14, 16 and 16 acceptors.

What do you think will be the outcome?

Refresh your memory of the 1400m races run on this day last year.

[P.S.    ....... do not forget the valley of tears on 'no moir' stakes night -- the favourites ran well last year.

Tomorrow night, there 6 even money favourites, one at 2/1  and race 6 is more open.]







Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-28, 07:45 AM Reply #68 »
What’s wrong with race 2?

Just happens to be a race where one of the bets if the day is taking part :bulb:
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-28, 07:52 AM by wily ole dog »

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-01, 10:36 AM Reply #69 »
Sunday bloody Sunday?


Race 2, with only 10 acceptors, is rated 'no bet' by PDC -- the others have inflated fields,  14, 16 and 16 acceptors.

What do you think will be the outcome?



What’s wrong with race 2?

Just happens to be a race where one of the bets if the day is taking part :bulb:

Well the outcome was that Mair failed to answer a fair, reasonable & polite question to his thought fart above.

The other outcome is that he got it wrong again and as predicted the bet of the day saluted :no1:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-01, 07:01 PM Reply #70 »

........... there is one certain bet every time

I do not think TWOne named the bet of the day in race 2 until today and then only indirectly, claiming it won.

No real complaints about Underwood day but the F4 for the overcrowded 1400 for 3yros paid $16,000.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-01, 07:35 PM Reply #71 »
........... there is one certain bet every time

I do not think TWOne named the bet of the day in race 2 until today and then only indirectly, claiming it won.




Why in gods name would I tip it to you but if you have the balls to go and look you will see the following from the TAB tipping Comp thread. You know, thats the thread that you dont even bother contributing the forum on you ferking sponge.
I will await your apology re your bullshit claim that  I didn't tip it :o

MR2 #2 Cliffs Edge :thumbsup:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-01, 09:08 PM Reply #72 »


Do not worry about being right even on the odd occasion

                                                                 ........it is an experience I have repeatedly

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-01, 09:12 PM Reply #73 »
Not around here old fruit :bulb:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-04, 08:14 PM Reply #74 »

OKTOBER FEST  -- WHAT AWAITS?

Rain and low-grade racing has put an end to the Sydney spring carnival -- rain or not the prospect of a capacity field in the BM 78 last race at Randwick is an affront to punters.

There is still some banjo-picken hype to come for the mountain races next week but u no.

The focus shifts to Melbourne.

One risk best avoided again this year is wasting form-study time on Friday nights trying to win on sucker-bait at the Valley of tears -- slow-learners will open the MV form guide and get done.

The Flemington program for Saturday has some highlights -- and a couple of low ones.

Race 4 over 1800m for 3ryos has 16 without the four emergencies.

Race 8 over 1600m for 3yro fillies has 16 before scratchings.

Race 9 over 1400 m for mares still has 15 listed to start.

Whether these races warrant 'listed' and 'group' status -- or not -- may be clarified.


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