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Author Topic: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold  (Read 4206 times)

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Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-29, 06:11 AM Reply #100 »

Also your perceived probability of a horses winning chances don't necessarily need to to be founded in it's last couple of runs or the opinion of others.  It can be founded on older form, form around specific variables or even imaginings of future possibilities.

That's why the majority of people on this forum love punting so much. Form analysis opens up a myriad of knowns, unknowns and possibilities.

Grappling with those things and forming independent opinions about how they should influence your betting is one of the most enjoyable things I've done in my life. You should try it.


 :clap2: :clap2: :clap2:

Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-30, 12:52 PM Reply #101 »

Profits before People

The land of a fair go is slowly submerging under the weight of administrators chasing a buck

The banking royal commission has exposed gross breaches of trust once banks put 'profits before people' -- and that theme quickly extended to insurance and superannuation and mortgage broking.

Much the same it seems in 'aged care', power prices and fuel prices.

This morning the 'real state premier' was waxing lyrical on 2GruB about the way administrators had similarly corrupted the iconic examples of ethical conduct -- 'rugby' and 'cricket'.

It is probably too much to expect that he will similarly see the ever more evident outcome of racing administrators inflating race fields with runners that will be pleased to run 10th.

-------------- he is even unlikely to see that the racing media is so beholden to racing money as to precluded any protest. 

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-30, 01:16 PM Reply #102 »
Quote from: Peter Mair on October 01, 2018, 10:41:04
Humidor a lay

.........first, thanks for the Deano link.

There was a reason for Humidor to be prepared to win first up over an unsuitable distance -- that may well have been its run for the season,  unlikely to be repeated.



You used Humidors first up win to try and justify a belief you had formed.
It hit you on the arse. You were proven wrong.

Well, his first up effort was repeated and you were wrong again

It’s a fact. Twist it how your like but nothing will change. You were wrong.
You’re allowed to be wrong but most of  us, when we are wrong, have the balls to admit it.

Your ego apparently doesn’t

Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-01, 06:20 PM Reply #103 »


Big week coming up


..........tighten the seat belt and bet up.................inflated field racing will be educational.

.............................. check out what happened on Derby day last year --  it was disgraceful

                   https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2017-11-04/FLEMINGTON/M/R/9/Win

The quadrellas paid $7,500 and $2,800  --  'lowest' F4 was $4,600 and the highest $100,000 --the four 'lowest' F4s averaged $6,000 and the four 'highest' (excluding the 100k) $14,000.

.....those that go for broke are likely to succeed.

Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-03, 06:04 PM Reply #104 »



.....those that go for broke are likely to succeed.


The issue is about 'overcrowded and inflated fields' and the caution was well warranted -- the last four races, each had fields of 16+

The quaddie paid $50,000 and the four F4s paid 90k, 40k, 8k, and 11k.

...........this is a disg-race  --------- RVL  winning at all costs

[Hold on to your hat -- there is another 3 days of this nonsense to go  -- Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.]

Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-04, 09:40 AM Reply #105 »


Have a go on Tuesday at Flemington -- and just keep going anywhere


It is now odds-on to rain enough to ensure a slow track.

10 races with chocabloc fields including 3 over 1400 with 16 starters and 3 straight-track sprints -- not forgetting the big-one with 24 starters of which most are not really known imports and a few are unknown fly-ins.

Race 6 and the 3 final races challenge the credibility of 'listed' and 'group 3' status.

For most regular punters it is one of the worst days ..........even once-were-sponsors are deserting RVL


Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-06, 07:18 PM Reply #106 »


Monty is my monitor

On Cup day in MN he was on the money until race 6 -- and then it unraveled.

The F4 dividends for the last 5 races 6 to 10 averaged some $30,000 and the quadrella paid $25,000.


Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-06, 07:32 PM Reply #107 »

Once-were-sponsors

Why are the sponsors taking their bat and ball home?

The choker on the racing media precludes any comment on the reasons why once-were-sponsors have pulled the rug.

Even so we know sponsors are alert to the value of their funding and would be doing market research to keep track of community attitudes to 'racing' and 'once-were-icon' events.

The racing media should be right on to this -- and the alert was there when Lexus 'was not' and then 'was again' the sponsor of the 'Hotham Handicap' on derby day.

........who thinks Lexus paid the same as before to be enticed to allow its name to be 'used' again?

The racing media are not 'encouraged' to ask these questions.

Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-08, 05:35 PM Reply #108 »


Another rough day at the orifice on hoax day -- and another looms for Saturday


Like klok-work the evidence of klok administration inflating fields rolls in.

Six clearly inflated-field races today returned F4 dividends fairly called an 'outrageous reflection on RVL administrtators.

In order, from Race 2 with 15 starters returning a $27,000 F4 -- Race 5 (16) $2,800  -- Race 6 (15) $44,000 -- Race 7 (13) $7,500 -- Race 8 (15)  $90,000 and Race 10 (17) $60,000

................and the quadrella paid $45,000.

Beware of Saturday -- the kloks have got a squirrel grip on the punters with inflated field races -- not least a 1400m with 16 three year olds accepted.

...........the klok work will unfold.

Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-08, 06:28 PM Reply #109 »


RVL plays dirty-pool with the punters

Race 9 on Saturday is a BM 80 down the straight 1100m with 20 accepting and 16 to start.

Why would the klokers do this -- except to take every last buck they can?

This is the assessment of punters.com:

Nice of the VRC to leave the hardest race of the carnival til last! This looks a near-impossible race to 'get out' on and if you're alive in the quaddie, you would want to have some decent coverage. With little to no confidence...........

Nothing would really surprise here.



Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-09, 03:47 PM Reply #110 »


THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR

Notwithstanding that the fields were smaller, about 12 at most, the quadrellas paid $2,500 and $8,000  --   the F4s over 8 races averaged $8,000 -- with much bigger fields, the portents are not good for tomorrow

 .....those that go for broke are likely to succeed.

Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-10, 06:04 PM Reply #111 »

The MONTY monitor says OK

Monty included 7 of the 9 winners -- 4 on top and one each 3rd,  4th and 5th.

Even so the quadrella paid $24,000 and the F4s included dividends of 40k, 40k, 15k, 13k, and 7k.

Once again the 'cup week' has been a shocker for punters.

......... it is reasonable to say that the inflated fields deliver unfair racing -- and it is a short step to hoping RVL will aim to better balance the interests of most punters.


Online Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-12, 09:31 PM Reply #112 »


Me-too, banking-too, cricket-too and racing-too

Cricketers, bankers need to stop 'winning at all costs', says rowing legend turned banker

............. Australian rowing legend James Tomkins, .... triple Olympic gold medallist ......his clients are financial advisers working for the big banks and financial services giants.

.................. asked by ABC News about how to fix rotten corporate culture, he preferred not to comment on specific companies...............general parallels between where things have gone wrong in business and sport.

    "When you start concentrating on outcomes at any cost that's where problems arise," he observed.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Nov-13, 06:29 AM Reply #113 »


    "When you start concentrating on outcomes at any cost that's where problems arise," he observed.[/i]


Oh the irony   :lol:


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