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Author Topic: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold  (Read 36745 times)

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Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Sep-30, 07:44 PM Reply #275 »

Black-Pete readily relents but does not repent

So true -- a 9yro gelding returning to G1 form is to be applauded -- as  was the Diva winning over 1400 -- just smile.

Luke Nolan is similarly applauded -- he does it hard -- but I am about to stop applauding Linda Meech and Kathy O'Hara.

I do not mind losing in those events -- but I would like to know 'how they get one ready' -- and one can be got ready for a hit-and-run -- BHB will never win again -- should not have won yesterday (2nd was three-wide the whole way).

As for the devil's disciple wondering about evidence of unfairness -- commonsense would suggest restraint after a day when almost all punters were lamenting losses as the dividends screamed 'we wuzz robbed!' by inflated fields raced on unfair courses.

[............... and the bland stewards report on the last race begged for more -- a favourite and winner, drawn the outside in a 1400m at Caulfield, came from near last in a time of 1.26+  -- as if the others were waiting for it to run past them. Tell me more!]



Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Sep-30, 07:56 PM Reply #276 »

............ the BHB story had a sequel............. he was readied!

Brad Rawiller (Black Heart Bart) pleaded guilty to a charge of careless riding under the provisions of AR131(a), the carelessness being that near the 350 metres, he permitted his mount to shift out when not sufficiently clear of Harlem (D. Dunn), causing that gelding to be steadied to avoid the heels of Black Heart Bart. Brad Rawiller had his licence to ride in races suspended for a period to commence at midnight 5 October 2019 and to expire midnight 12 October, a total of 8 race meetings (2 metropolitan, 6 provincial). In assessing penalty Stewards took into account his guilty plea, good record, the fact it was a Group 1 race and that the carelessness was in the low range.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Sep-30, 07:58 PM Reply #277 »
).

As for the devil's disciple wondering about evidence of unfairness -- commonsense would suggest restraint after a day when almost all punters were lamenting losses as the dividends screamed 'we wuzz robbed!' by inflated fields raced on unfair courses.
!]


You’re the only one squealing, wrongly, about field size and as expected you couldn’t find any excuses for the beaten brigade that related to field size

Your dishonesty continues unabated  :clap2:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-05, 07:05 PM Reply #278 »

.......... another day wrecked by malevolent administration

What should have been, and was in parts, a good days racing was again spoiled by running crowded fields of inexperienced 3 yro horses -- two $60k F4s and one paying 14k, as well as a 30k quadrella, were the predictable disgrace.

..... .....product quality management is beyond the len of RVL ......... but they sure know how to organize unfair races.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-07, 09:50 AM Reply #279 »

Tarnishing the Silver  -- Silver Eagle gets a couple of extra starters


Racing NSW and the Australian Turf Club have worked on a way to increase of Saturday’s Silver Eagle to 14 runners from the 1300m start at Randwick on Saturday.

“We can start another two runners by moving the rail, so we have done that. We will get a full field and we might have to look at ways to get more four-year-olds starts on Saturday.”

The Silver Eagle, to be run for the first time in 2019, is something completely new in Australian racing: a race restricted only to four-year-olds. While Australian racing has many famous races for two and three-year-olds, this will be the first race only for four-year-olds. and run at set weight and penalty conditions.


This story will unfold during the week -- and the post-mortem will be held next Monday.





Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-07, 06:47 PM Reply #280 »

Mizzy is a 110 benchmark nomination --  there is a cluster of 5 around BM 86.

.......... with a spread of BM weights around some 12 kg being unlikely in a SWP event, the probabilities are for an uneven race affected by clutter.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-07, 08:32 PM Reply #281 »

One over the limit nominated for the Sliver Ealge

The inaugural Silver Eagle (1300m),.. $500,000 for four-year-olds on Saturday .. has ... 15 nominations.

.......................it is hardly a stampede to get a run ..... that suggests connections are expecting a couple of good ones to be dominant and their best outcome will be $5,000 for running 10th.

Spare my days!

This is not a model for a major national business to aspire to present as a wonderful  'considered innovation' ... it smacks of opportunism akin to that RVL nonsense in Autumn where the punters vote for the runners.


 

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-08, 04:36 PM Reply #282 »

Hi Ho-Ho Silver -- a weighty problem for Pauline to explain

The situation with the Sliver Egale is ever more tantalizing -- consider these allocated 'weights'.

Mizzy with the highest 110 benchmark rating gets 55.5 kg.

Buffalo River with the lowest benchmark 82 gets 56 kg.

Zousain rated at 104 gets the 57.5 kg topweight.

Fasika despite being benchmarked at 99 gets 54 kg, the lowest weight.

.................. it could not be as silly as this looks, could it?


Offline sobig

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« 2019-Oct-08, 05:04 PM Reply #283 »
It is a set weights and penalties therefore benchmark rating becomes meaningless.

Basic weight is 56kg entires and geldings and 54kg for mares, penalties group 3 winner 0.5kg, group 2 winner 1.5kg and group 1 winner 2.5kg

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-08, 06:54 PM Reply #284 »

Thanks Sobig for the education

.............set weights and penalties ............ benchmark ratings become meaningless

While BM ratings may be ignored in allocating the weights for a SWP event, I am still thinking that they may be relevant to the prospects of horses that would be weighted very differently in a handicap.

I may be a dunce but it seems to me that Mizzy should start favourite while some others nominated should not really be running in the same race.

In terms of sound racing industry policy -- one question is about runners only there to pick up $5,000 for coming 10th ............but cluttering and impeding others before compounding and falling back through the field ....... probably making the race result unfair.

This will play out -- inflating fields with no-hopers, for turnover, corrupts the sport and the gambling.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Oct-08, 07:12 PM Reply #285 »
Thanks Sobig for the education

.............set weights and penalties ............ benchmark ratings become meaningless

While BM ratings may be ignored in allocating the weights for a SWP event, I am still thinking that they may be relevant to the prospects of horses that would be weighted very differently in a handicap.

I may be a dunce but it seems to me that Mizzy should start favourite while some others nominated should not really be running in the same race.

In terms of sound racing industry policy -- one question is about runners only there to pick up $5,000 for coming 10th ............but cluttering and impeding others before compounding and falling back through the field ....... probably making the race result unfair.

This will play out -- inflating fields with no-hopers, for turnover, corrupts the sport and the gambling.



Well, you proved it yet again   :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-08, 07:31 PM Reply #286 »

Thank you for repeating my assessment of the Sliver Egale,


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Oct-08, 08:57 PM Reply #287 »
And, once again thanks for highlighting what a dishonest dunce you are🍻

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-08, 10:04 PM Reply #288 »


The Kensington track at Randwick is one to be wary of

........ the prospect of running another midweek meeting with over-full fields on this track does not inspire confidence.

Why would they do it?

-- a suspect track at the best of times is coupled with full-fields of low-grade horses --   a portent saying don't even look at the fields.

So don't.

......... the story will be told before nightfall tomorrow ... no one will wish they had had a bet.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-09, 07:12 PM Reply #289 »

........... and, so it came to pass

Across the four legs of a quadrella paying some $11k, the total of the F4 dividends on te quadrella legs was some $25k.

The race outcomes continue to suggest it is beat to avoid running in, and betting on, races run on a track that has never made the grade.

The contributing factors to this damning historical record are complex -- in the end connections with a good horse will not nominate to run on this track and, the converse, those that do nominate are running for luck.

.............. do it without me until field sizes are constrained to ensure  a fair go.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Oct-17, 05:57 AM Reply #290 »


A glimmer of hope for a fair go -- limit field numbers

Slotholders cautious on expanding The Everest


A group of The Everest’s slotholders have warned the world’s richest turf race will ‘‘lose its glamour’’ if more horses are added to the event, insisting Sydney’s signature race will reach $20 million in prize money in coming years.

As interest intensifies from overseas and domestic parties wanting a slice of the pie, some of the concept’s initial backers want the field capped rather than expanding to 14 runners.

....................... there’s no sign of them agreeing to another two slotholders joining The Everest, despite Racing NSW being flooded with more than 20 applications for Damion Flower’s forfeited slot earlier this year.

‘‘We repay loyalty back in spades,’’ he said. ‘‘The original slotholders went on a journey with us and we wouldn’t change anything without their agreement. But also 12 is the right number from a wagering point of view.’’





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