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Author Topic: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold  (Read 48060 times)

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Offline bascoe

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« 2020-Jan-03, 08:14 PM Reply #375 »
Angle park dogs have been running 6 dog races for a good while Pete - try there


Sent from my iPhone using Racehorse Talk

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-04, 06:53 AM Reply #376 »
I think PM will inform you after the last but I stand to be corrected.

Oh you will be correct.
It’s a reflection of his dishonest character

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-04, 01:13 PM Reply #377 »
Early in the meeting but Mair looks like being an idiot again  :lol:

Winners odds
11-2
7-2
7-2

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-04, 07:07 PM Reply #378 »


As predicted RVL presented rubbish at Caulfield

                                                            ....  a dog is eating crow.

Quadrella punters, winning $50,000, dialed 18,11,13,7 and any other number for success.

The F4s on races 6,7&8 paid $40,000, $10,000 and $18,000.

Those that dialed the prefix 13-6 won the BIGSUX ............ said to be paying $160,000,  a poor return when the 4-5 double paid $22 and the SUX should have paid $1,000,000+.

How can anyone defend this nonsense served up week in and week out?





Offline fours

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« 2020-Jan-04, 07:24 PM Reply #379 »
Peter,

I got 2 of those first fours and really should have got 3 but for an interruption. So the racing was lovely.

But Peter chances are I do a whole lot more work than you - rather than rely on some one else's tips as you do.

Fours

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-04, 08:21 PM Reply #380 »


Thanks 'fours' -- do you live in a kennel with "wily'?

                         ............. another 'winner' when all the rest lose!

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-04, 08:39 PM Reply #381 »
No Mair. I lost on the quaddy today. Got the last 3 legs but like you I spent no time doing the form and let saucy jack under my guard.
Major mistake.

Are you aware of its first up form?

Wit( 7 of the 9 runners favoured in betting
, punters won again. Those who did the best form clean up
« Last Edit: 2020-Jan-04, 08:40 PM by wily ole dog »

Offline Dave

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« 2020-Jan-04, 08:45 PM Reply #382 »
Pete you really have no freakin' idea of how punters think, do you?
If the favs always won the 4 legs of the Quadrella they would be a very unattractive bet, people don't buy lottery/lotto tickets hoping to win $20......and they don't take exotic bets hoping the favs win so they can get their money back, or even worse, they get the Quadrella and Still LOSE!
They bet "against the odds" hoping to win a "Motza".....that is what keeps the pools up.......
Wake up to yourself and stop acting like a petulant child

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-04, 09:11 PM Reply #383 »


.................... Dave -- it is getting crowded in the kennel

You guys need to share selections -- between the three of you you could be rich!

....... wily has incredible ability and may take more than a third.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-05, 06:51 PM Reply #384 »


Good advice:  'fours'  about 'first fours'....... I qualify


I will pay more attention to 50% place-getters starting at long odds.

F4s, my most common bet --  rarely successful -- are most likely to win when there is a smallish field with clear favourites and the rest of the field goes in for fourth.

Alas, big F4 (and quadrella) dividends occur mainly when a favourite does not win and a race is corrupted by an inflated field.

Some races -- e.g. over 1400 at Caulfield and Flemington -- are notoriously unfair with an inflated field and the favourites cannot get to the front.

Most TAB punters assume the race will be 'fair' and exclude 'no-hopers' starting at more than 10/1.

I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.

It is syndicates that cover the field and plunder the pools with rough results.


Offline fours

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« 2020-Jan-05, 07:33 PM Reply #385 »
Peter,

You remain an idiot!

I have given examples of just how 12 to 16 combos can get 100% of a first four paying more than 20 grand.

Accordingly your assumption that only syndicates can do it - earns you the idiot tag.

Pay attention.

Fours

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-05, 09:21 PM Reply #386 »

Fours,

The only evidence relevant is published predictions of F4 outcomes before a race is run.

A standout to win, from the field for 2nd and 3rd, and one for 4th is an expensive/small% bet.

I will keep an eye on it but you may also like to record the successes on the forum.

Syndicates would use more sophisticated, proven models than such rules of thumb.

 

Offline fours

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« 2020-Jan-05, 10:26 PM Reply #387 »
Peter,

I have already given, before the race, successful first four approaches involving few combinations.

Indeed I showed that a combination of place and first four bets can improve both your strike rate AND your overall returns compared to just a plain place bet. Dubbledee responded with fluke rather than admit I was right so I am not inclined to repeat ad infinitum.

It's not my fault you are a slow learner or in fact are totally incapable of learning.

Fours

Offline Dave

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« 2020-Jan-05, 10:32 PM Reply #388 »
Pete I am not greedy or stupid, I never take exotic bets, I pick the races I want to bet in and size of field is largely irrelevant(kinda like what you think) I have never in my life bought a Lottery/Lotto ticket and Never play pokies as I have no control over the outcome.....but again cos I am not an idiot (like you Pete)...I understand why some punters go that way.....they are looking for a big dividend.......if Lotto prize was $50 they wouldn't sell many tickets, would they?
Why don't you put your brain in gear before you accelerate with your mouth on things you don't understand
Of course you are right about the Quadrella races being to hardest races to pick the winner of.....that is what makes them great betting races, doing the extra yards (hard work) pays off......
Instead of trying to educate Punters on what they shouldn't do.....Why not start classes on how to win at Punting??
You could educate Punters on what they should do......now that would make for interesting reading and go someway to improving your credibility, I know I would be a follower......I am not talking about a tipping service......no one would expect you to give away the fish you caught......teach us all how to fish?.......You do know how to bait a hook don't you?

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-06, 07:24 AM Reply #389 »
He's been trying to bait a hook for years on here but those in the industry, whose attention he is trying to catch, can smell a rotten prawn from a mile away :confused1:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-06, 10:01 AM Reply #390 »


The proof of the pudding

...................will be revealed by keeping track of the performance of the 50% place-getters starting at long odds.

Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Jan-06, 04:24 PM Reply #391 »

The proof of the pudding

...................will be revealed by keeping track of the performance of the 50% place-getters starting at long odds.

What is your definition of long odds?

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-08, 09:17 PM Reply #392 »


Mid-week today

... I do not believe most punters would be pleased if they had a quadrella bet on the races in Sydney or Melbourne today.

(that does not include the kennel-club-kids who would have creamed it as usual -- scouts honour!)

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-10, 11:36 AM Reply #393 »


Saturday is a quandry

In Melbourne, modest field sizes promise a fairer go -- bar the BM70 last race over 1100 with 16 starters.

Sydney has some fair races but the quadrella looks crowded -- and the highway-robbery spoils the earlyQ.

Making-Millions-with-Magic at the Gold Coast is the hard question -- massive fields and massive prize-money are a formula for the visiting carpet-baggers to steal the day -- the top players are on there wanting to win.

The difficulty of qualifying to get a start is coupled with a limited number in the total pool  -- in the wash up the best of the qualifiers are typically well placed to beat the also-dids

... avoid the first two races - be mindful a $1m race last year, over 1200, had a rough-result -- $60k F4.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-10, 01:26 PM Reply #394 »
- be mindful a $1m race last year, over 1200, had a rough-result -- $60k F4.

Cool, hope I can snare it. Was t far off last year from memory

Let’s hope for an even bigger divvy

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-10, 04:10 PM Reply #395 »


... .............dig the hole deeper

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-10, 04:13 PM Reply #396 »

... .............dig the hole deeper

Why, to stick your fat head it?

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-10, 07:36 PM Reply #397 »


..............no room for me ............... that hole is getting crowded as the kennel club members file in.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-12, 08:37 AM Reply #398 »
Well it’s time for this thread to be shut down after yesterday’s racing
Mair claims inflated fields lead to high dividends

Well, Mair got a 10 horse field race 3 and a F4 divvy of $54,000 :bulb:

Another 10 horse field in race 8 saw a F4 of 19k  :lol:
Then we have $30 outsiders lobbing in 10 horse fields  :lol:

Inflated field sizes =  fairer outcomes for punters???       

Myth busted   :lol:


« Last Edit: 2020-Jan-12, 08:39 AM by wily ole dog »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-13, 07:25 PM Reply #399 »


... sit boy ....... stop barking .... back in the kennel.


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