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Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Inflated fields – assessing the consequences about to unfold  (Read 75983 times)

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Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-13, 08:47 PM Reply #625 »


URGENT -- has anyone been in touch with Dick?

This is Richard Irvine's story -- (circa 2013):

Gambling is an equal chance to win and equal chance to lose, says Richard Irvine, a professional punter who lives in Sydney. It is about a fair bet.


.. ..............the story is updated ..... circa today 2020

Punters’ advocate Richard Irvine joins us to discuss his proposal for a Punters Union that would represent the rights of punters.

    Why now?
    How will the Punters Union look?
    What’s in it for the state racing authorities?
    What are the topics that will be raised? Is everything on the table?
    Is it just discussion or are we looking for meaningful changes?
    Will bookies be involved?
    How will representatives be elected?
    Has there been any engagement from state racing authorities?


After some 7 years in the wilderness, it is very timely for Dick, as the head of a new 'punters union', to come in from the cold, to let us know what he has in his head to address critical issues facing the racing industry.

................ he has the support of the powerful kennel club and it wily spokesman.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-13, 09:07 PM Reply #626 »

Cop this tripe

The Victorian Government has stumped up more than $16 million to aid the state’s racing industry’s recovery from the Covid-19 disaster.



Well done to the Vic Giverment  :biggrin:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-13, 10:22 PM Reply #627 »


Hit your Scone hard  -- before you bet on  Friday

                        knockout best ..................... or you will have nothing left to lose on a Sconed Saturday.

The insanity police will be recording evidence of those betting on the Scone races on Friday:

                     https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/scone-20200515/all-races

.......anyone backing up on Saturday, squandering the family inheritance, may well be arrested as a self-protection situation.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-14, 09:52 PM Reply #628 »

Inflated fields:  pre-post consensus v.  post-race outcomes



Looking ahead to Saturday, for most races in Sydney and Melbourne, there is a credible consensus across the published selections of three industry players: Racenet, Punters.com.au and Sportsbet.

I have no doubt that the 'tips' are soundly professionally sourced and sincerely offered -- as are  'tips' posted by individuals claiming expertise, and across racing-media panels more generally.

These guys 'do the form', call it as they see it -- but are often mocked by the race outcomes

Post race-mocking of most of this 'input' -- against the 'output' of reality -- may reflect apparent incompetence of some contributors but it also begs the question of why do they all get it so wrong so often.

These players, playing sincerely, are routinely embarrassed come race day.

On race day itself, race results, however rough, are immediately proclaimed by broadcasters  'the correct outcome' --- sometimes it is obvious that a crowded field denied a 'should-have-won' unfairly -- dismissed as 'bad-luck' .......but there is no complaint aired about 'inflated fields'.

The only 'accredited' racing media players run with blinkers and tongue ties -- any failure to run as so directed, would see their accreditation removed (aka cut off the feed).

........................ we lament the suppression of a free-press in dictatorial regimes -- Russia and China et al, et al -- but blandly accept that the racing media in Australia is so similarly and so brutally suppressed.

........ we all know this is not right ........ but no one on the affected payroll can say so ..... not only would they lose their job ........they would expose their failure to speak frankly  previously.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-14, 10:08 PM Reply #629 »

Inflated fields:  pre-post consensus v.  post-race outcomes



Looking ahead to Saturday, for most races in Sydney and Melbourne, there is a credible consensus across the published selections of three industry players: Racenet, Punters.com.au and Sportsbet.

I have no doubt that the 'tips' are soundly professionally sourced and sincerely offered -- as are  'tips' posted by individuals claiming expertise, and across racing-media panels more generally.

These guys 'do the form', call it as they see it -- but are often mocked by the race outcomes

Post race-mocking of most of this 'input' -- against the 'output' of reality -- may reflect apparent incompetence of some contributors but it also begs the question of why do they all get it so wrong so often.




  :biggrin:   :lol:   :lol:  :


Hey Pete, what happened, you get tapped on the shoulder ?  :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-15, 08:54 AM Reply #630 »


Saturday will be interesting -- especially the RVL offering

The tipping polls, in the SMH, for Sydney and Melbourne show a consensus around few live chances in most races.

On the face of it the races should run true to form -- we will see.

3 or 4 runners are conceded a good chance in Races 8 and 9 at Flemington -- to be run over 1400 with 14 starters  ----  hold your breath.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-17, 02:43 PM Reply #631 »


Inflated-field racing: instructive and illustrative results

Put aside the simply appalling reflection on Adeliade racing administrators for staging unfair races with inflated fields -- just make a note to put aside this low-grade racing and its administrators.

The results at the RVL meeting were consistent with the routine display of RVL administrators serving up inflated-field product so degraded as to be an affront to punters and participants denied a fair run for their money.

Apart from a $40,000 F4, four others averaged $8,000 and the quadrellas paid 3k and 6k.

Sadly also, on the face of it,  Sydney racing similarly showed the consequences of inflating fields beyond the limits of gair-go racing  -- a $44,000 F4 and three others averaged some $14,000.

.. .........even so small fields kept the earlyQ dividend to some $50 and favoured runners kept the Quadrella to $500.

As for -- 'can-tip but does not write' -- Monty, he included the winner of every Sydney race in his Top5  (mainly in his two-top selections)..... the contrast with Melbourne is stark, he missed 3 winners completely. 

There is something going very wrong with Melbourne metropolitan racing -- and those that should be saying and writing this loudly and clearly apparently can't and won't.

Offline fours

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« 2020-May-17, 03:53 PM Reply #632 »
Loudly and clearly.....

THERE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE


BIG FIELD RACING IN VICTORIA!


Fours

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-17, 08:20 PM Reply #633 »


Thanks 'fores'

                           ...... loudly, proudly, clearly and colorfully... could not have said it better myself.

......... appreciate the support you, and the kennel-club kids, are providing for my quest for fair racing.

You may like to add your voice to the problems with Hong Kong racing  ........ once considered model administrators, the prevailing nonsense is substituting  a marketing focus on a Zac and Joao rivalry for the reality of inflated fields rorting most punters. Check the F4s. Tell us to stay away!

Keep the campaign running fores, punters risk being hit in the wallet by rouge balls fired from the administrators bunkers.

Offline ratsack

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« 2020-May-17, 08:33 PM Reply #634 »

Thanks 'fores'
You may like to add your voice to the problems with Hong Kong racing  ........ once considered model administrators, the prevailing nonsense is substituting  a marketing focus on a Zac and Joao rivalry for the reality of inflated fields rorting most punters. Check the F4s. Tell us to stay away!

surely your not that  :censored: en brain dead ?
they don't have first 4's in Hong Kong
look at the pool sizes FFS 

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-17, 09:23 PM Reply #635 »
Now he’s supporting more big field racing in Victoria.  :lol:

Mair the jibberer  :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-17, 10:11 PM Reply #636 »


[b                 ]........ Australian racing administrators will take a free ride on anything,[/b]


The advantage of F4s in HK, for local punters, is that the TAB 'take' is lower than the rort TABs take when 'mingling up'.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-18, 02:37 PM Reply #637 »


The science of successful Sunday-morning tipping


.........taken from Michael Lewis:

   
All too often, we find ourselves unable to predict what will happen; yet after the fact we explain what did happen with a great deal of confidence. This ‘ability’ to explain that which we cannot predict … represents an important, though subtle, flaw in our reasoning. It leads us to believe that there is a less uncertain world than there actually is.


What happened in the past was often not predictable either but it is not sensible to go on to use one such unpredictable event to explain another that was not predictable either.

The most useful assessments are made on Wednesdays, before Saturday -- as I routinely do in calling races  'fair and unfair' before they are run.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-18, 05:58 PM Reply #638 »
And you are routinely wrong :bulb:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-18, 07:34 PM Reply #639 »


Just so right

.......the not-wily, rats and fores pump my tyres without fail... just put a bone near the kennel........ 'woof'!

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-20, 07:09 PM Reply #640 »


The Kensington track is dirty-work -- best avoided when fields are inflated (ie: > eight starters)


Race-fields on the Kensington track would be best kept to 8 runners or less.

This assessment follows another day when the race results on the K track can only be described as 'rough' -- very rough when the Q pays $50,000, an F4 25k and five other F4s pay an average of 6k.


This is not fair to punters 'assured' of a 'great days racing' by all and sundry bound to say so.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-20, 08:21 PM Reply #641 »


........ its Wednesday.....acceptances......Saturday looms..... the 'crystal-ball' looks at the fields


Its winter, its raining, the tracks are wet and capacity fields served up again.

Consider the RVL offering at Flemington:

.... it opens with a BM84 over 2500m, some not qualified to carry the weight....... R2&3 over 1400 ....for 2yro and 3yro.... what do you think?....... 4,6&9 are full-fields up the straight.... R5 is a full field of 3yros over 2000m.......R7 is a BM 84 over 1800 with 14 to start and R8 an 'open' with 14 to start over 1600m.

The MN portents for most punters are 'not good' -- masterfully understated... sensibly, stay away.

The virus of inflated fields has hit NSW ........ R9....a BM 78 over 1200m with 14 to start ........ will bring quaddie players undone.

........gentle readers will also sensibly ignore all other racing on Saturday.

                  ..sensible readers will bet light if they must............I must......I will bet light .

 


Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2020-May-20, 10:06 PM Reply #642 »


This assessment follows another day when the race results on the K track can only be described as 'rough' -- very rough when the Q pays $50,000, an F4 25k and five other F4s pay an average of 6k.


More lies.

Please add link to show us all this $25k F4 dividend. I'll wait.

Given you quoted a $50k Quad, I'll assume you are referring to NSW tote.

Average F4 pool size there today of $11,576, I'd actually add something in here usually but won't bother as you won't be able to grasp it.

Did chuckle at your uncanny ability to cherry pick your results again to suit your bile-ridden spouting, ignoring the one race ($796.50) that didn't work in your favor.




If you can't add the link to your $25k F4, just let us know which race it was.
« Last Edit: 2020-May-20, 10:40 PM by HarmersHaven »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-21, 08:24 AM Reply #643 »

........ its Wednesday.....acceptances......Saturday looms..... the 'crystal-ball' looks at the fields


Its winter, its raining, the tracks are wet and capacity fields served up again.

Consider the RVL offering at Flemington:

.... it opens with a BM84 over 2500m, some not qualified to carry the weight.......

So you've made a judgement. Don’t back any of them if your “knowledge “ d3crees that.  Personally, I’ve  snapped up the crazy odds on offer on one of those Who’s last start should be forgiven



R2&3 over 1400 ....for 2yro and 3yro.... what do you think?.......no, you tell us beforehand. In R3 who should we not bet on? I see some very talented horses in the field




 4,6&9 are full-fields up the straight.... 14 horses up the straight is not a problem. It’s a big wide open track Peter


[/color]

R5 is a full field of 3yros over 2000m....... so? What’s your point?


R7 is a BM 84 over 1800 with 14 to start

care to expand? Or are you sticking to some vague
, broad brush comment that allows you to spruik nonsense after the race
a



 R8 an 'open' with 14 to start over 1600m.

??

The MN portents for most punters are 'not good' -- masterfully understated... sensibly, stay away.

                  ..sensible readers will bet light if they must............I must......I will bet light .

Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2020-May-21, 04:46 PM Reply #644 »
More lies.

Please add link to show us all this $25k F4 dividend. I'll wait.

If you can't add the link to your $25k F4, just let us know which race it was.

Still waiting germ.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-21, 04:59 PM Reply #645 »


First Four 9-1-4-12 / Pool First Four $8,065/ $12,485.40 Jackpot $4,358.56 = x2

Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2020-May-21, 05:41 PM Reply #646 »

First Four 9-1-4-12 / Pool First Four $8,065/ $12,485.40 Jackpot $4,358.56 = x2

The $12.5k declared dividend has already had the 'multiplication' done to it to account for jackpot amounts/fractional winning tickets to standardize its' display to that of $1.

Why in God's name are you (further) multiplying a declared dividend that always already been multiplied?


Red pill/Blue pill time here

Red pill: You're are an imbecile that cannot (after all this time and self-proclaimed expertise) fathom the maths; or
Blue pill: You're a disingenuous cretin that deliberately distorts facts to sell the story in your head.


Sadly, first time in Red pill/Blue pill history, the player can/should/will take both.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-22, 07:46 PM Reply #647 »


WA racing put on a pike -- at the silly end of the spectrum?


The CoVid vacuum has left many with idle time on a wet day.

Extending my glance to tomorrow's Belmont races on a good track, had me wondering about how the punters balance the presence of a Pike in fields, of 16, so inflated as to defy a fair go to any.

.... the pre-post prices put up for most runners say they have no chance ----- what they do have is the ability to be a disruptive and impeding presence for runners there to win.

Framers of markets for WA races, sensibly, never discount mounts of the master -- W.Pike.

...... this mirrors the Purton/Moira situation in HongKong ------- the message is 'NO GO'.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-May-22, 09:00 PM Reply #648 »
So, you couldn’t provide any analysis of Melbourne so you go to Perth and spew your ignorance   :lol:   :lol:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-May-22, 09:16 PM Reply #649 »


......  dear 'laughing clown' (as you present yourself)


............ answers to MN-racing questions will be provided by MN-racing results tomorrow.


Similarly, your understanding of WA racing,  will be evident in the WA race results.

.................................. go back to Proverbs 26:11 .........  eat and digest sensibly.



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