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Author Topic: Kick Back for the Rebate Debate  (Read 13564 times)

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Offline arthur

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« 2018-May-22, 08:01 PM Reply #25 »
In other words let sleeping dogs lie.


Or . . Lying dogs sleep   :whistle:

Online jfc

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« 2018-May-23, 07:26 AM Reply #26 »
Consider Tabcorp pooling with Hong Kong for cerain bet types.

Premium Players get a token rebate ~SFA.

But according to Bascoe 14% is available through PGI in NZ or wherever.

No prize for guessing what the Premium Players will do.

Now Tabcorp owns part of PGI so consider how any of that revenue (less 14% !) will be shared.

Tabcorp
Phumelela
RHKJC
Zeljko's Typhoon hub

Who on earth can argue that makes any business sense!


Online jfc

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« 2018-May-23, 06:26 PM Reply #27 »
Onto liquidity.

Given the Rebate Players bet extremely late I fail to see any way that helps liquidity.

And liquidity could even suffer if other players try following suit by betting ultra late. Besides bets sometimes failing to get on, pool totals would appear even lower.

As for any idea that Zeljko is seeding pools I've noticed Betfair liquidity getting worse and worse.

Online jfc

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« 2018-May-24, 08:46 AM Reply #28 »
The debating seems to have ceased but there are still some key issues left unwrit.

It's very clear that Tabcorp and its ilk are very bad negotiators.

They seem to be oblivious to the proven experience that punting boycotts have always failed.

Zeljko may threaten a boycott if his outrageous demands are not met there is no way he'll every carry that out.

What's happened before will simply happen again.

If he carried out a boycott then I along with many surviving punters who unanimously use correct money management would quickly notice improved conditions and bet up accordingly. Up to as much as the market can bear.

Personally I have some robots hibernating because of barren conditions. I could simply revive them and my turnover would soar while the halcyon days endure.

Of course making sure not to pay Betfair 1 cent in PC40 charges.

Offline stiffarm

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« 2018-May-24, 01:28 PM Reply #29 »
So if I am a premium customer am I better off going through Tabcorp or PGI? Do they offer different rebate percentages on the same pool?

Offline stiffarm

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« 2018-May-24, 01:38 PM Reply #30 »
Rubbish.

Tote punters have no way of telling whether any contingency is value.

Because Zeljko's bets never appear before on indicators until after the jump.

Zeljko is on record claiming he'll knock a true $8 chance into $6.

No retail Tote punter has any chance of being a long-term winner.

Thanks to Kickbacks.

Is that thanks to kickbacks or thanks to the fact that Zeljko's bets don't appear until after the jump? (which is a separate issue).

Or are you suggesting that the process of events that have led to Zeljko's bets not appearing until after the jump were accelerated by kickbacks in the first place?

Online jfc

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« 2018-May-24, 03:07 PM Reply #31 »
It makes no sense crushing Overs into Unders unless you enjoy kickbacks.

Now the perp in question may choose to make early bets to compromise the market.

But very late (hence invisible) bets are needed to complete to complete the manouver.


Offline stiffarm

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« 2018-May-24, 05:04 PM Reply #32 »
So basically the perp gets the last throw at the stumps and the dividends go off at whatever price he wants them to?

How do other kickback players deal with something like that? Would be near impossible calculating bet sizes from tote data that you know is going to be compromised by someone who is going to manipulate dividends after you place your bets into the pool.

Online jfc

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« 2018-May-24, 05:15 PM Reply #33 »
Obviously everyone tries to bet as late as possible.

And that does not help liquidity at all.

Now I don't know how Tabcorp guarantees that the Isle of Man closes pools precisely at jump.

Or whether the Isle of Man has more up-to-date pool approximates than the rest of us.


Offline stiffarm

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« 2018-May-24, 05:31 PM Reply #34 »
Are the Australian based punters at an advantage due to the fact their servers are in closer proximity to the Tabcorp servers? High internet speed and closer distance would mean they are receiving info faster?

Online jfc

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« 2018-May-24, 05:39 PM Reply #35 »
Who knows how the whole arrangement works?

Does Tabcorp have total control which bets are rejected for tardiness?

Or does it trust the Isle of Man to close its own bets at jump?


Offline stiffarm

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« 2018-May-24, 05:56 PM Reply #36 »
Don't know but sounds like there are two tiers of premium players. Normal premium players and then Zeljko on a tier of his own...

Online jfc

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« 2018-May-24, 06:30 PM Reply #37 »
Probably an opportune time to relate this pertinent anecdote.

In the early 90s 2KY reported that the AWA Newcastle Tote manager had been sacked for certain unspecified malpractices. I never saw any reporting in the press.

One of the stunts the perp in question used was instead of closing races at jump, he'd instead rush to the High Value Room and urge the punters there to keep betting during this window of exclusivity!

That's certainly one way of boosting turnover.

But not sure how big players in Sydney felt about this Newcastle edge.

This illustrates just how sloppy controls were back then, and how there's inevitably someone ready to exploit such situations.



Offline stiffarm

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« 2018-May-24, 07:06 PM Reply #38 »
A basket case indeed.

What sort of kickbacks are these players getting in the US? Have heard figures up to 19% been thrown around, now that sounds like mismanagement!

Offline bascoe

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« 2018-May-24, 08:16 PM Reply #39 »
There is always a way...
Before the advent of api and computer betting (Im talking late 1990s here) we had an arrangement with a tab owner where all our bets were run through his tab and we would split the commission- t/o was enormous and we had assistants writing tickets and all the cash was managed behind  the counter
There were other tab rorts back in those days where some dog races were not closed at the jump and bets were placed up to about 20 secs after the start - I think that was all insider run - and people were sacked over it

As for the issue about estimates and late pool updates - premium customers get access to updates every 5 secs instead of the the 35 everyone else does

Premium also get access to tri and f4 approximates

Certainly very beneficial but most pro groups are moving away from tote betting and are getting more creative getting set with the tab via fixed odds - confirmed with a recent conversation with another of jfcs persona non grata list

As for pgi - it is only an option for non Australian residents


Sent from my iPhone using Racehorse Talk

Offline stiffarm

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« 2018-May-25, 12:08 AM Reply #40 »
Certainly very beneficial but most pro groups are moving away from tote betting and are getting more creative getting set with the tab via fixed odds - confirmed with a recent conversation with another of jfcs persona non grata list
Sent from my iPhone using Racehorse Talk

Agents betting on behalf of large groups on TAB fixed odds via retail agencies has been happening for years but surely its not a sustainable business model? How much longer are retail agencies going to last for?

Online jfc

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« 2018-May-25, 09:41 AM Reply #41 »
It is actually quite easy to provide an Internet Tote that would be vastly more attractive for retail punters, and with no problems, ever.

Some of the features would be.

  • Low Rake
  • Early Bird discount. With the same discount applying to late money up to the early spend.
  • Large late bets restricted so they don't force a contingency below a benchmark (National Tote or whatever)
  • A compensation scheme so that over 90% of punters exceed above Best Tote on their lifetime winnings
  • Regular boosts above Best Tote (where that's cost effective)

Liquidity would be vastly superior because the Early Bird discount  + equivalent Late would mean a very high percentage of Early money.

Pool sizes won't be important. If your bet goes on you are almost certainly guaranteed a good return. If it doesn't feel free to bet elsewhere and risk the odds getting "depreciated".

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-25, 08:29 PM Reply #42 »
It is actually quite easy to provide an Internet Tote that would be vastly more attractive for retail punters, and with no problems, ever.

Some of the features would be.

  • Low Rake
  • Early Bird discount. With the same discount applying to late money up to the early spend.
  • Large late bets restricted so they don't force a contingency below a benchmark (National Tote or whatever)
  • A compensation scheme so that over 90% of punters exceed above Best Tote on their lifetime winnings
  • Regular boosts above Best Tote (where that's cost effective)

Liquidity would be vastly superior because the Early Bird discount  + equivalent Late would mean a very high percentage of Early money.

Pool sizes won't be important. If your bet goes on you are almost certainly guaranteed a good return. If it doesn't feel free to bet elsewhere and risk the odds getting "depreciated".

Under this model who pays the race clubs for "putting on the show"  :(

Offline LeRoi

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« 2018-May-25, 09:58 PM Reply #43 »

[/quote]
It is actually quite easy to provide an Internet Tote that would be vastly more attractive for retail punters, and with no problems, ever.

Some of the features would be.

  • Low Rake
  • Early Bird discount. With the same discount applying to late money up to the early spend.
  • Large late bets restricted so they don't force a contingency below a benchmark (National Tote or whatever)
  • A compensation scheme so that over 90% of punters exceed above Best Tote on their lifetime winnings
  • Regular boosts above Best Tote (where that's cost effective)

Liquidity would be vastly superior because the Early Bird discount  + equivalent Late would mean a very high percentage of Early money.

Pool sizes won't be important. If your bet goes on you are almost certainly guaranteed a good return. If it doesn't feel free to bet elsewhere and risk the odds getting "depreciated".


TBH tried the early liquidity idea, providing a rebate for the first 20k into pools before 10am. Problem is they didn't provide any rebate in the last hour of betting like your idea, and punters just feared they're money is there to just be manipulated. Future looks grim for it once the Sean deal ceases.

Offline ratsack

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« 2018-May-25, 10:42 PM Reply #44 »
Under this model who pays the race clubs for "putting on the show"  :(

Joh
don't you worry about that son (JBP Queensland politics, for those not sure)


on this thread we only worry about making a buck !

who is going to put the show on ?
seems to be going ok in england and america ?


lets plunder Australia next 



Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-26, 01:33 AM Reply #45 »
Joh
don't you worry about that son (JBP Queensland politics, for those not sure)


on this thread we only worry about making a buck !

who is going to put the show on ?
seems to be going ok in england and america ?


lets plunder Australia next

The strange thing is you never hear them talking about Winx or giving their views on who is winning tomorrow or tips in the tipping comp.

Only ever implied insults that we are all a bunch of losing f. morons  :lol:

Online jfc

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« 2018-May-26, 08:59 AM Reply #46 »
Under this model who pays the race clubs for "putting on the show"  :(
Not hard to see which way the debate is heading with efforts like this.

I remind you of PP7's extraordinary earlier post actually implying that punters know what they will get on the Tote!

As to this effort.

This conceptual Tote would conceptually pay the same taxes as any other Internet Tote .

Why on earth does that have to be spelled out!

But as to Tax or Charge evasion.

What about Tabcorp?

How can we tell Tabcorp is innocent of such stunts given its clandestine in the Isle of Man and other tax shelters.

And remember Tabcorp is a joint owner of PGI which conducting intriguing business on nearby NZ.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-26, 11:52 AM Reply #47 »

I remind you of PP7's extraordinary earlier post actually implying that punters know what they will get on the Tote!


Can you please quote me where I said that? It is an extraordinary claim and does not reflect my opinion.

The final tote prices on Saturday races do fluctuate toward the end but not by that much and often reflect the fixed price fluctuations.

Heavily backed favourites seem to firm on the tote significantly in NSW late in the betting to the point they often pay a lot less than the fixed price. I have always assumed this is corporate bookmakers reducing their risk late.

But the thing here is that we are talking about parimutuel totalizators.

For everything that firms something must ease. You guys seem to ignore this fact in all your talk.

So the punter looking for a bit of value can often find it on the tote while all the "smarties" are pouring all their money into favourites.

They don't always win.

Also I question the perception that Zjelko bets on every available racing tote pool and always wins.

The rebates come out of the TAB's cut. The government and the race clubs still get their full cut. That means he still has a few percentage points to make up unless he has crunched something the place to the point they have to give him a $1 place dividend and borrow from the other two pools.

You guys consistently seem to ignore these mathematical ambiguities when they are raised. Can someone be brave enough to tackle this fact and explain it to us all in clear mathematical terms?

If I get the patronizing pat on the back of the head as a "non answer" (as I always do) I have to assume you guys have NFI and are just parroting gossip from other parts of the internet.

Online jfc

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« 2018-May-26, 03:51 PM Reply #48 »

Also I question the perception that Zjelko bets on every available racing tote pool and always wins.

The rebates come out of the TAB's cut. The government and the race clubs still get their full cut. That means he still has a few percentage points to make up unless he has crunched something the place to the point they have to give him a $1 place dividend and borrow from the other two pools.

You guys consistently seem to ignore these mathematical ambiguities when they are raised. Can someone be brave enough to tackle this fact and explain it to us all in clear mathematical terms?

If I get the patronizing pat on the back of the head as a "non answer" (as I always do) I have to assume you guys have NFI and are just parroting gossip from other parts of the internet.
Rubbish! Once again!

Who on earth has that bizarre perception!

And the government pays for the rebates!

Somewhat ironic when Zeljko claims to reside in a tax shelter.

Now I remind you of the Tote Tasmania fiasco.

The rebate players through that won far more than their fair share.

So the rest of the Supertab members had to donate over $60 million per year over to Tasmania to settle!

So forget about whatever you were trying say about a few percentage.

No Zeljko or his near peers can knock all Overs into Unders, so that no one but them can will long-term.

That is unquestionably their go to strategy.

Because it destroys all other competitors.






Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-May-26, 04:22 PM Reply #49 »
Rubbish! Once again!

Who on earth has that bizarre perception!

And the government pays for the rebates!

Somewhat ironic when Zeljko claims to reside in a tax shelter.

Now I remind you of the Tote Tasmania fiasco.

The rebate players through that won far more than their fair share.

So the rest of the Supertab members had to donate over $60 million per year over to Tasmania to settle!

So forget about whatever you were trying say about a few percentage.

No Zeljko or his near peers can knock all Overs into Unders, so that no one but them can will long-term.

That is unquestionably their go to strategy.

Because it destroys all other competitors.

You have made zero attempt to answer my question apart from the ambiguous sentence

"And the government pays for the rebates!"

So my understanding of the rake is that (say) they take 15% out of a Win Pool that part of this goes to the operator (TAB), and the rest goes to the Government who redistributes some of that to the race clubs.

Q: Are you saying that it is incorrect?

Secondly,

Q. Are the rebates paid from the TAB rake, or from both the TAB rake and the Government rake (assuming the first question is answered).

Can you please create a post that just answers those two questions please.

If you feel the need to add insults, can you just answer the questions in your first post then add a second post where you can go knock yourself out with the abuse.

Thanks.   :biggrin:


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