Author Topic: Market Pricing - Discussion (Read 3844 times)

montecristo · O.P. « 2022-Feb-15, 02:07 PM »

Hi all,

New to the forum and a bit of a novice punter looking for some help to hopefully improve my punting and maybe the discussion will help others also.

From what I've gathered it's useful to pay attention to the market, as quite often that will give a good indication of how well your horse might run in the race.

From doing some research it seems like there is 2 or 3 major periods when the weight of money starts to influence markets the most.

1. At the Open

2. 20 minutes before race start

3. 5 - 2 minutes before a race when the "pros" apparently come into the market.

I've tended to just watch the price in the last 5 minutes but have noticed that some times a plunge on the price from the open may not be reflected in the last 5 minutes, where the price might drift out.

So I guess my question is, what do other punters do for reading market moves? Do you have a preference for a time period that in your experience more accurately reflects whether you should back a horse or not or do you use a multiple of market factors in your determination?

Happy to discuss this via email if you'd rather not broadcast this across the internet.

Thanks in advance.

Rad · « 2022-Feb-15, 03:04 PM **Reply #1** »

I've got a feeling you're going to stimulate a lot of discussion ....

A few thoughts:

To understand the significance of market moves, you need an understanding of the relative winning chance of each runner. If you see the horse as 'overs', you won't be surprised to see people backing it and taking the existing price. The keys here are having a price assessment that is pretty good and deciding when is the right time to step into the market place to take the attractive odds. This isn't easy. Experience and hard work help, but there are no guarantees you'll read the market right - no one gets it right all the time or even most of the time. If I am betting seriously, I will have an assessed price on every runner. I think it is a vital starting point.

When you see a horse quickly shorten when the openers are put up, it is a clear case of a potential assessment error by the market framer or, alternatively, a case where some punters have information that is not available to the market place. Either way, it is very interesting info.

Some key things to look at when assessing a price shorten include:
- the stable involved - some stables, including their owners and friends, are renowned for getting a plunge right - smart money. Other stables aren't punting stables, so it is based on 'smart' third party money;
- changing conditions (eg a track downgrade) or realising there are biases in the track (eg leaders are winning or swoopers are winning). These sort of things change assessments of the likely horses that are favoured or that 'can't win' today > leading to changing market prices. All understandable with the keys being realising it early and understanding the impact of any change vs your original thinking;
- the elasticity of the market - it takes lots of money to move a Melbourne Cup market, but not much at all to move the odds in a Stony Creek maiden. Don't over react to market moves. It may not prove significant. Having said that,try and pick every piece of info up - they are all part of the jigsaw;
- the better you do in reading the market, the more likely you are a long term winner. Every punter has to turn around a, say, 20% disadvantage to be a winner. A key aspect of this is getting top odds for your bets. Remember that there are betting options available that make this task a little easier: top fluc, top tote, the lock, a boost, using multiple betting accounts, etc..

Good luck mate. It's a lot of fun, but a tough gig.

Gintara · « 2022-Feb-15, 04:41 PM **Reply #2** »

Good topic

To answer your question of when do I bet?

If I miss the early price (opening) and by that I mean when the markets open days out, I'll wait then till race day as most of the time you'll see that runner who has firmed correct itself on raceday. Normally then I'll wait till around 10 minutes out from the jump on BF, assess whether to bet now or price my bet higher and the majority of time I do then it gets matched.

That's just one piece of a large puzzle as Rad has suggested.

An example for tomorrow is Galaxy Belle in race 5, I missed the $4 on opening, now into $3.5,barring scratching it will be interesting to see what price she jumps.

montecristo · « 2022-Feb-15, 05:02 PM **Reply #3** »

Interesting insights, much appreciated.

Being of a finance background I tend to have it ingrained in me never to fight markets and you'll make a lot more money by going with them, but perhaps this is a bias that I need to discard when considering my punting strategy.

Rad · « 2022-Feb-15, 05:31 PM **Reply #4** »

I have just loooked at Sandown Race 5 tomorrow. Early days, but I have done my initial market on the race:

1. Our Birdsong: First up as a rising 6yo mare; won Track and distance in July, but up 2.5kgs - a winning hope, but happy to risk (OX+)
$15 (TAB $11)
2. Rapid Achiever: Lightly raced with 2 wins from 3 starts including a win here. Winning form around her. First up. Recent jump out - strong winning chance (XX)
$2.90 ($3.10)
3. Demando: Winner here over 1400, fitter for 3 runs back, last run only 1.3l back at MV this class but a $130K race. Ready and a Winning chance (X++)
$5 (6.50)
4. Madam Mischief: Not going well enough, not won beyond BM58 - Little hope here (O)
$67 ($26)
5. Wegobam: Going well but not winning. Suitable race but no major push. Meets Demando a little worse at their best - Winning Chance (X+)
$6 ($3.00)
6. Halvoya: Recent OK form but tougher race here - Some hope (OX)
$21 ($18)
7. Shes Original: Winner of last 2 including a Lakeside C1 win. Tougher here but is on the rise for a smart stable - Winning Chance (X-)
$7 ($7.50)
8. Livingstone Falls: First up and up in class. City maiden winner, placed first up twice. Some Hope (OX-)
$26 ($8)

Interesting to watch the market. Clearly, I'm expecting #5 & #8 to drift. Time will tell.

wily ole dog · « 2022-Feb-15, 06:00 PM **Reply #5** »

I’m totally different. I pay zero attention to market moves.

I make my selection and bet accordingly. Generally I level stake

Gintara · « 2022-Feb-15, 06:22 PM **Reply #6** »

Rad taught me his method of pricing a race years ago and it would stand the test of time against any method. One of the great lessons I learnt

That said you'll only ever be as good as your form study, if you are wrong with your opinion then your pricing will be equally wrong.

As I became time poor I still use a similar method to assess the chances in a race, I just don't go as far as applying a price. My method sees me establish winning chances and chances in a race & I can bet accordingly dependent on price. That could mean a stand out winner, small profit on some or merely saving on others.

Maybe not rating to a price sees me have more bets than I should but I have to be confident my opinion will overcome that

wily ole dog · « 2022-Feb-15, 06:40 PM **Reply #7** »

Time poor? That’s the relevant part of the discussion. How much time do you put in to get results

Peter Mair · « 2022-Feb-15, 07:40 PM **Reply #8** »

............. tip taken ....

Exacta 2-3 SANDOWN Gallops - R5 QuinellaPending 2,3 SANDOWN Gallops - R5

Gintara · « 2022-Feb-15, 07:41 PM **Reply #9** »

Quote from: wily ole dog on 2022-Feb-15, 06:40 PM

Time poor? That’s the relevant part of the discussion. How much time do you put in to get results

Depends who you ask?

I'd say not enough or less than you think, my wife would say too much

nemisis · « 2022-Feb-15, 07:42 PM **Reply #10** »

I agree with Rad's post up the top although I'm never sure about the term "smart money"..... tough gig is very accurate.

You could write a book about the way the market moves around certain stables but it will do your head in.
Like everything about the punt....it works only some of the time.

Little example.....Godolphin.....no doubt they have good assessors associated with that place.
There was a period where the market was really speaking about the horse's chances.
I really rated and liked Alcyone as a young horse and when he resumed from a long spell I jumped in at the opening price of around $20-25.
The next two days I spent thinking I had just wasted my money because he got out in the market but he did win @$30.
Study hard and back your own judgement

I'd say try to develop an eye for horses....watch horses closely and try to identify particular features about them.
Don't bet up and down the country.

Hong Kong is a good place to learn something......do replays over and over again esp. horses that may have performed well above the "market expectation" at their previous start,
just to see what everybody may have missed.

fours · « 2022-Feb-15, 08:09 PM **Reply #11** »

montecristo,

In horse race betting you can only make money on market mistakes.

Fours

Gintara · « 2022-Feb-15, 09:26 PM **Reply #12** »

Quote from: nemisis on 2022-Feb-15, 07:42 PM

just to see what everybody may have missed.

All part of doing the form but very good advice.

Too many rely on the form guide and not what they saw with their eyes.

jfc · « 2022-Feb-16, 08:01 AM **Reply #13** »

I certainly would not know where to start attempting Rad's methods and my bet is I'm not Robinson Crusoe.

But in a few minutes I knocked this up on a spreadsheet:

Inter v Liverpool (in ~22 hours):

17/11 = 1.545454545454... = Liverpool goals

To Score

$2.921 Salah
$3.708 Jota
$5.290 Diaz
et cetera

These are simple tricks that everyone here can quickly teach themselves - assuming they set their minds to it.

If I had a financial background, and just starting off in this caper I'm pretty sure I know which method I'd opt for.

wily ole dog · « 2022-Feb-16, 08:38 AM **Reply #14** »

Nem , “ Don't bet up and down the country”?

Depends on your approach. For me it’s a combination of entertainment and love of the horse thus winning is important to continue that on.
Restricting my bets or venues makes no sense on that level

fours · « 2022-Feb-16, 10:24 AM **Reply #15** »

Not every one is time poor...

Not everyone needs hours per race to do their thing.

Some advice assumes being time poor and or taking a long time to do things.

Very long term, experienced players can take seconds only to have a very good chance of making a profit or leaving the race alone entirely - no matter where it is.

Fours

wily ole dog · « 2022-Feb-16, 10:31 AM **Reply #16** »

I agree. Reading the form guide is no time at all for me
Videos is where my time is spent.

As to market pricing it very rarely affects my decision to bet. If I like something it’s chances /ability don’t change based on odds
Horse don’t read form guides

Rad · « 2022-Feb-16, 05:08 PM **Reply #17** »

Quote from: Peter Mair on 2022-Feb-15, 07:40 PM

............. tip taken ....

Exacta 2-3 SANDOWN Gallops - R5 QuinellaPending 2,3 SANDOWN Gallops - R5

Are you good for a sling, Peter??

Peter Mair · « 2022-Feb-16, 05:24 PM **Reply #18** »

Well done Rad

$2 got me $39 on NSWTAB (paid +$5 on VICTAB)

It was a copy-book result............ did not take the F4.

nemisis · « 2022-Feb-16, 05:26 PM **Reply #19** »

Good stuff Rad....well done.

Peter is a $5 man so I'd say he's had a nice collect......$13 quin.....$26 ex.

Rad · « 2022-Feb-16, 05:34 PM **Reply #20** »

Thanks guys!!

All good here too. I backed the winner at $3.10, $3.50, $3.90 and $4.00 as it went out - they were generous

Peter Mair · « 2022-Feb-16, 05:39 PM **Reply #21** »

Alas!, P is smarter than that -- rarely more than a dollar, often fifty-cents.

Racing is a rough game these days.

wily ole dog · « 2022-Feb-16, 06:19 PM **Reply #22** »

Quote from: Rad on 2022-Feb-16, 05:34 PM

Thanks guys!!
All good here too. I backed the winner at $3.10, $3.50, $3.90 and $4.00 as it went out - they were generous

In line with the thread topic, the drift didn’t concern you?

Rad · « 2022-Feb-16, 06:27 PM **Reply #23** »

Quote from: jfc on 2022-Feb-16, 08:01 AM

I certainly would not know where to start attempting Rad's methods and my bet is I'm not Robinson Crusoe.

jfc, it really is fairly simple and gets easier as you use it. I learned this approach from an old time Melbourne bookie. As Gintara says, it really does convert your assessments of each horse into an accurate market (in terms of reflecting your thoughts):

As I go through the form I assess each horse's chance and allocate an 'X' code to each one depending on the rating. From this, I develop a value for X and from that a percentage chance for each horse.

XXX for a near certainty, XX for a 1st class winning chance, X for a reasonable winning chance, OX for a middle pinner, OOX for a rough hope, O for an outsider and OOO for one with no hope

You add up the X's and divide that number into 100. It only needs to be approximate and you establish a value for each X. In the sample above I started at 13 and then adjusted it to 15 or 16 (small field) because 13 only got the market percentage to just over 80. You really do quickly establish a number for X that works. These are your percentage chances ie your estimated market price
So, in the example above, the favourite was an XX rater = 2 x value of X = 26, adjusted up to 34.
The second favourite was X++, so rounded up by a couple of points for each + from 15 to 20
The third favourite was X+, so rounded up by 2 points from 15 to 17
X- finishes at about 13, OX is half of X, so about 6 points, OOX =s about 2 or 3 points, O =s about 1 or 2 points and OOO is less than a point.

You then fiddle around to get to the market percentage you are looking for. I'm using 100 and the above market reflects that. If I reckon I've got something a little wrong, I'm happy to make a few adjustments.

I find it important not to overestimate the chance of outsiders and to focus the market on the top end.

There you go ... as clear as mud

Rad · « 2022-Feb-16, 06:50 PM **Reply #24** »

Wily, I sure did reduce my bet.
The original price and continued money for my second selection’s stablemate worried me most. I was happy to see Demando stay strong at the same time though. The favourite was a little easy, so that was ok. Late money on the top weight was ok too.

So at the end I just had ‘enough’ on the winner and saved on the second horse each way. I was a little weak, understandably considering my fancy was first up, but did well enough that I have no real regrets. Rapt that my market was right, considering I went public with it.

Cheers