Racehorse TALK

Thoroughbred Racing Talk => Vic Gallops => Topic started by: timw on 2021-Jun-05, 03:23 PM

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: timw on 2021-Jun-05, 03:23 PM
Joseph O'Brien trained Baron Samedi has just won the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup Stakes on turf over 2 miles (first start in the US).  Career record was 5 unplaced runs until gelded and has since has won all 7 starts. Next target Melbourne Cup ?
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Aug-20, 08:09 PM
I am interested to see how the next few weeks will turn out in Sydney and Melbourne with the covid issues and who will be riding the horses running in the staying races in Melbourne for the feature races. 

I like some of the Aussie horses but hard to know who to back if the o/s runners do come down under.





Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2021-Aug-20, 11:09 PM
The OS horses need not turn up.

Incentivise will give them a thrashing.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Aug-21, 09:40 AM
Not so sure PP, I think he is a very good horse and not sure how he rates when he hits the Melbourne Cups trail.

Incentivise will have a new trainer and jockey plus new surroundings. He will be racing the Melbourne way of racing. He will be facing better opposition than what he faced in Brisbane. When he races in the Cups, the field sizes will be the largest he will have raced and not sure if he will get luck in running especially if he draws wide and jockeys kick up.

But saying all that I do like him but I will be waiting to see his first few runs. It will be nice to see an Australian horse win.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2021-Aug-21, 08:22 PM
I have confidently backed Cepheus at 100 to 1.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Aug-22, 12:15 PM
I went in today to put a few $(literally) on a few horses including Incentivise etc to win Caulfield/ Melbourne Cup. What I donít understand and this has been going on for decades is the reduced odds of a horse to win both cups. It is almost 30-40% reduction in total odds for a single horse to win both cups.

If I backed horse A into A, B, C and D to win the second leg, I get lower price for A but not higher price for B,C and D if A wins. Considering Etheral and Doiremus were our last 2 dual cup winners in the last 30 years, it is a rort.

Where is Peter Mair to chase it up for us.   :lol:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2021-Aug-22, 05:29 PM
I went in today to put a few $(literally) on a few horses including Incentivise etc to win Caulfield/ Melbourne Cup. What I donít understand and this has been going on for decades is the reduced odds of a horse to win both cups. It is almost 30-40% reduction in total odds for a single horse to win both cups.

If I backed horse A into A, B, C and D to win the second leg, I get lower price for A but not higher price for B,C and D if A wins. Considering Etheral and Doiremus were our last 2 dual cup winners in the last 30 years, it is a rort.

Where is Peter Mair to chase it up for us.   :lol:

Yes we have been through this in detail a few times.

It is a rip off of the highest order.

The bookies argue "Ųh but horse A would be reduced odds for the Melbourne Cup if it wins the Caulfield Cup".

But the bit they are leaving out are all the bets taken for horse B to win both Cups at a reduced percentage, horse C to win both Cups at a reduced percentage, etc.

To be honest I don't know why the marketing department of one of the big players don't just give the correct odds and advertise as such. Surely that sort of promotion wouldn't cost any more than "pay down to 5th place" and "Odds Boost" and all those other promos.  :what:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Aug-22, 09:22 PM
The plot thickens with Boss struggling to goto Victoria with the Covid rules. I do wonder if they will go with Allen or Williams.

There is also talk of Spanish Mission coming down for the Cup after his great run this week against Stradivarius.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/could-queensland-hoop-get-the-firstup-job-on-incentivise-in-spring-carnival-campaign-20210821
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Aug-22, 09:33 PM
I went in today to put a few $(literally) on a few horses including Incentivise etc to win Caulfield/ Melbourne Cup. What I donít understand and this has been going on for decades is the reduced odds of a horse to win both cups. It is almost 30-40% reduction in total odds for a single horse to win both cups.

If I backed horse A into A, B, C and D to win the second leg, I get lower price for A but not higher price for B,C and D if A wins. Considering Etheral and Doiremus were our last 2 dual cup winners in the last 30 years, it is a rort.

Where is Peter Mair to chase it up for us.   :lol:

It's hard to listen to someone with a straight face trying to justify this rort. Has been like that since time dot and the excuse always trotted out is is that the odds of horse A would be reduced after he won the first leg ...... I've always counted that a) I placed the bet before either race was run & b) you don't extend my odds in the second leg of horse B after horse A won the first leg  :shrug:

I simply don't take them.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2021-Aug-22, 09:56 PM
Has been like that since time dot

Not quite that far back.
Even Stevens i think.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Aug-26, 04:03 PM
Interesting news with Boss ruled out of the spring carnival which means that new jockey for Incentivise plus Sydney jockeys maybe no chance for majority of the Victorian spring carnival if they canít get past quarantine.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/glen-boss-to-leave-darwin-quarantine-early-and-to-return-home-to-sydney-20210826
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Aug-26, 08:04 PM
Not quite that far back.
Even Stevens i think.

Correct :thumbsup:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Sep-11, 09:00 AM
Interesting day today to see how Incentivise goes today. The odds may get better for some runners if he does well today especially the European runners.

Explosive Jack is an interesting runner too today. Had a long campaign with all his derby wins. Good horse.

I am interested to see how Warning goes today. Had a soft spot ever since I was on him in the Derby.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Sep-11, 09:08 AM
Iíve had a dabble on Warning as well. Sun on his back from a Brissy prep will help
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Sep-11, 10:40 AM
I see the hoof filler has come off Wily but not with my money, he's promised a lot but failed to live up to it.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Sep-11, 11:32 AM
I know what you mean but I did say a dabble  :lol:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Sep-17, 12:01 PM
Very interesting day tomorrow in Sydney and Melbourne.

Realm of Flowers, Amade, Vow and Declare are some of the more notable potential MC runners at Caulfield. 

I am intrigued to see if they will target the MC for Very Elegant after the Cox Plate. Damn fine odds but I think one of the owners also has a share in Incentivise so they might be kept apart.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Wenona on 2021-Oct-13, 07:37 PM
Hadn't really taken much notice of Duais before today. Went back and watched a few of her previous runs. Can't really put my finder on it but there's something about her I really like. Took $40 and $12.50 the place for the big one, hopefully she does well and pulls up OK in the Caulfield Cup this Saturday.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-13, 10:54 PM
I was on through Brissy and have been watching with interest until today, took $10 to beat the shortie (she blew further). Was a good ride by Dee to bring her with a perfectly timed run.

If you just looked at the form guide you'd be wondering WTF but it was a slaughter job by Bowman 2nd up, took off ridiculously early, burning her up and rightly dropped out. What got me was the ease of how she moved into that, hence I took a stab today.

I've never been good at futures  :shy: but in a year with little to no Euros that looks a solid bet Wenona.

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Wenona on 2021-Oct-14, 09:57 AM
Yeah, I think you're right .. the way she can quickly put herself into the race is part of it.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-16, 08:32 PM
After todayís CC and looking at the order of entry, you do have to wonder if some of the well beaten brigade will continue to the cup or look at something a bit easier. 22nd of October is the next declaration date.

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/melbourne-cup/melbourne-cup-order-of-entry
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Oct-17, 08:18 AM
The first four...

Incentivise Spanish Mission Persan Very Elegant

Fours
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Oct-17, 09:10 AM
I canít get warm about this Spanish Mission thing.
Twilight payment to run the placing behind the new champ
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-17, 10:07 AM
What the jockeys said after the CC. Might be a good pointer for the placings behind Incentivise in the MC.  :lol:

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/what-the-jockeys-said-after-the-2021-caulfield-cup

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-17, 03:59 PM
Without Incentivise, it will be one of the most open MC in history. A few more horses have fallen out of the Cup including Realm of Flowers.

Waller will have a few horses but the most interesting will be Very Elegant if he chooses to run her in it.

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: gunbower on 2021-Oct-17, 08:43 PM
Wonder if the man who has had the greatest impact on our Greatest race has been watching. Think he might be very chuffed that there is a really great chance that a local will probably be the winner this year.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-18, 06:06 PM
Geelong Cup has below runners in the MC still. Their Oder of Entry is listed after injuries and withdrawals based on Just Horse Racing website.

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/melbourne-cup/melbourne-cup-order-of-entry

7) Explosive Jack
15) Mirage Dancer
20) Knights Order
24) Tralee Rose
27) Le Don Vie
43) Hasta La War
44) Amadee
45) Defribillate

A couple of good CC runs are on the border or in trouble unless they win a qualifying race. 

23) Chapada
40) Great House

Horses like Explosive Jack and Delphi are well in the top 24 but connections were not happy with their CC run so it will be interesting to see what they do.

I personally would love to have a MC runner even if it was 100/1.   :lol:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-19, 07:01 AM
My 2 MC  future's bets go round tomorrow at Geelong....Amade and Hasta La War.
I'd love to see Hasta la War go 2 miles in the MC but worry about how he might have come out of the Herbert Power.....that track was a firm 2.
Delphi and The Chosen One certainly didn't bounce off that track looking at their CC runs.

It was interesting listening to the Caulfield track manager stating he should have put an extra 4mm of irrigation on the track that day.
Bit of a shift going on at the moment with Racing Victoria, they know just what these hard tracks do to horses.
Always glad to see trainers withdraw their horses with the track upgrades...only way to get the message across.

Amade was a bit disappointing last start but that was a brutal pace in that race.
That was his 4th race in 2 1\2 years so I have to forgive him.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-21, 07:12 AM
Both Hasta La War and Amade were excellent yesterday.

Hasta La War (3rd) is a beautiful stayer.....I wish they would just let him roll along.
Disappointing yesterday to see him pulling when the pace drops a bit
Real Euro type on looks and style.

Amade (4th) was a bit stiff....so far back in a very fast 2400m....2:27.04 secs.
Sad that he could miss the Cup....hasn't yet passed the first qualification clause.
Hoping for a miracle now for both to get in the Cup, but there is still hope.
Both will be much closer to the front than the rear if they can sneak in to the cup.

Awful watching Johnny Get Angry yesterday.
Looks like the son of Tavistock will never recover from being asked to go 2500m on a concrete track at Flemington at such a young age.
Unless Racing Vic can provide a safe surface for their spring Derby that race should go.....far too brutal.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Oct-22, 07:50 AM
Weight matters...

Last year there was not a single horse carrying 56kgs or more in the first 14 across the line....

Fours
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Oct-22, 07:55 AM


The Cup that stops
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-24, 02:11 PM
There are some wraps on the o/s runners. After yesterdayís Cox Plate and the quality of the CC field bar Incentivise, it is a very open race.

More runners could be over 33/1 than under it this year.   :lol:

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/reigning-melbourne-cup-winner-twilight-payment-primed-for-title-defence-20211023
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-25, 01:45 PM
Just noticed that Hasta La War was not nominated for The Hotham on Saturday
Probably a relief to me that he's not going to try to get into the Cup field that way.

He is sitting at 28 th now......might sneak in  :thumbsup:.....he was 40 something just a week ago.....how good is that?
Took a bit more of the $201.......he's a lot better than that.

Amade is nominated for Bendigo on Wed and the Hotham.....he is 29th.....still needs to qualify.
Both will only enhance the race and Hasta La War getting into the field and winning would be just the greatest boost the Cup could have.
I loved to see him on a proper 4-5 rated track, racing on the inside of Incentivise up the front.....laugh if you want to!
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-25, 01:49 PM
The current order of entry for the MC.

Disappointed with Chapada not being accepted and I thought he had a great place chance after his run in the CC.

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2021-rv/the-sport/2021-10-25-lexus-melbourne-cup-4th-acc-oct-25.pdf?la=en
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-25, 02:25 PM
The current order of entry for the MC.

Disappointed with Chapada not being accepted and I thought he had a great place chance after his run in the CC.

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2021-rv/the-sport/2021-10-25-lexus-melbourne-cup-4th-acc-oct-25.pdf?la=en

Shame they don't run the Cup day hurdle anymore  :chin:

He's a gay deciver / money muncher who I just put a line through.  :whistle:

That said I do that with a lot out of the Moroney stable.  :/
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-25, 03:06 PM
Gin, I had a couple of multis on him after the Turnbull run. He was at $126 and $31. After the CC run, he was $51 -$81 and place $13.5 -$21. So I loaded up again on a couple of NFL games into him.

If he finished in the top 3, I would have got a $4 k collect on $50 worth of bets. So I lost my  Melbourne Cup kitty.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-25, 03:38 PM
Hard to know just what a "gay deceiver" actually means.

It's just a crappy cliche that has hung around horse racing....just an insult.
I first remember it in NZ.....was used about Apollo Eleven......of course the horse had the last say.....cleaned up Gunsynd.

It's worth going back just to look at Chapada's racing history.....went around in the Vic Derby on concrete.....hard to find  many of his rivals...
All gone to equestrian and pony clubs I presume :what:
Mike Moroney once spoke about him....described as a beautiful mover and genuine horse.
That's the horse I recognise.....he has been OK for me.....done a lot of his racing on very hard tracks and probably feels them at times.....not a 2 miler though.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-25, 03:59 PM
I will add Apollo Eleven was deceiving nobody.

I was working in stables in Auckland at the time.

Apollo Eleven was running around in 1400-1600m races.... often backed and beaten.
At start no. 30 something they tried him over ground.....absolutely bolted in, in a low benchmark type race.
Auckland Cup next start and off it all went....super stayer.

Trainers just didn't seem to know what type of horse they had.


Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-25, 04:08 PM
Unfortunately for me, I thought he was starting to become a rough chance with the quality of the field dropping away. He was good at Turnbull and he worked home solidly in the CC. With a bit of weather forecasted for Melbourne, I thought he was a good chance. He ran better than most who are shorter than him.

Now I have to look for another chance. Incentivise is too short for me even though only bad luck will stop him while Spanish Mission looks a great chance too but short for an unknown quantity.

There are only 9 horses under 20/1 with the Tab with majority of the rest over 50/1. If there is a bit of give in the ground, Very Elegant is a good chance. I donít know how the other o/s runners will go but I canít doubt their credentials too much. Grand Promenade has a good chance while there were a few pluggers in the CC that could finish in the placings.

I donít have a clue now in the MC.  :dry:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: ratsack on 2021-Oct-25, 06:17 PM


It's worth going back just to look at Chapada's racing history.....went around in the Vic Derby on concrete.....hard to find  many of his rivals...

That's the horse I recognise.....he has been OK for me.....done a lot of his racing on very hard tracks and probably feels them at times.....not a 2 miler though.

do you have any figures ? About hard tracks or is it just your opinion ?

lets say horse leg injuries from 1980 till 2000 V  2001 till now ?

Ill wait
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-25, 07:13 PM
You will be waiting a while.
You could specify what constitutes a leg injury....there is a fair bit going on in a racehorse's leg.
Let me know......I might get back to you.

In the meantime see if you can find the interview with Mick Price on Lankan Rupee.
He lost form and as Mick said.....I've had every test known conducted on him and he has been diagnosed with.......????
And he was a sprinter!....but it's in the form guide in front of your eyes.
Now while you waiting read about bone bruising......micro fractures and very painful.

And it was about then I paid a bit more attention.

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: ratsack on 2021-Oct-25, 08:08 PM
Hey Nem
Did you pin fire horses ?
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-25, 08:12 PM
Hard to know just what a "gay deceiver" actually means.

It's just a crappy cliche that has hung around horse racing....just an insult.


What would you call a horse that's promised a lot but rarely delivers? Runs on, gives the be on me next time run.

3 from 34 means he'll get me ever other pancake day. Those odds are in my favour imho.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: ratsack on 2021-Oct-25, 08:37 PM
I will add Apollo Eleven was deceiving nobody.

I was working in stables in Auckland at the time.

Apollo Eleven was running around in 1400-1600m races.... often backed and beaten.
At start no. 30 something they tried him over ground.....absolutely bolted in, in a low benchmark type race.
Auckland Cup next start and off it all went....super stayer.

Trainers just didn't seem to know what type of horse they had.

i love it when people edit after being challenged

forget this quote , i was wr wr wr.....................  mistaken !
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-25, 08:50 PM
i love it when people edit after being challenged
Are you on the drink?
I was going to reply to your pin firing question....it is of particular  interest to me!
I wondered what you were going to tell me.

My edit was" a low benchmark"....I had written "an low benchmark"

Feel like apologising????
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-25, 09:04 PM
What would you call a horse that's promised a lot but rarely delivers? Runs on, gives the be on me next time run.

3 from 34 means he'll get me ever other pancake day. Those odds are in my favour imho.
I hope you can't find any evidence of me calling a race horse a derogatory name anywhere, Gintara.
I don't do it!

I'll never forget Choisir......got beaten as short price fav a couple of times.
Ian Craig started suggesting the horse needed gelding or something...not doing his best, I suppose.....that's where this stuff gets it's roots.

What was Choisir?.....a champion straight track horse.
What?....sold for $30 mil or something with his most important assets still intact!
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: ratsack on 2021-Oct-25, 09:21 PM
apologies   :beer:

always have a couple

back to the pin question 
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-25, 10:45 PM
I hope you can't find any evidence of me calling a race horse a derogatory name anywhere, Gintara.
I don't do it!

I'll never forget Choisir......got beaten as short price fav a couple of times.
Ian Craig started suggesting the horse needed gelding or something...not doing his best, I suppose.....that's where this stuff gets it's roots.

What was Choisir?.....a champion straight track horse.
What?....sold for $30 mil or something with his most important assets still intact!

Pretty sure Chapada got thicker skin and wouldn't be too offended about being called a gay deceiver.

The world's a sad, sad place if you get offended by that.  :shutup:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-26, 08:07 AM
I can only relate to what a racehorse goes through in a race to my B-grade running days.
There is nothing that pleasant about having your heart going full bore trying to keep up with the demands being placed on it.
If I had some little bloke whipping and kicking me, well that wouldn't be very helpful....to me.
Beautiful animals, thoroughbreds.

I feel a bit for trainers at times having to defend their horses that have a "reputation"
Mike Moroney laid out a good case one day for Chapada....talked about his incredible galloping action.....I accepted what he said.

Nothing stopping anyone calling a racehorse names.....maybe try not putting so much on....might change your thinking.
You just wouldn't want to be a licencee in NSW.....you will get fined for calling the boss man names!
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Oct-26, 08:58 AM
Hmmmm,

Strange they appear to have not considered Nonconformist for the MC.

Or did something happen?

Certainly finished the closest to Incentivise in the CC.

Fours
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Oct-26, 09:22 AM
Roughy time for the MC,

Okay I am going to try and out do firezuki with his ~~15/1 MC tips and tip Ocean Billy to place - currnetly $26 available to place or more and 101 to win.

Needs good track and is weight advantaged.

Fours
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-26, 12:03 PM

I feel a bit for trainers at times having to defend their horses that have a "reputation"
Mike Moroney laid out a good case one day for Chapada....talked about his incredible galloping action.....I accepted what he said.


What does that even mean  :what:

You might look like Tarzan but doesn't mean you don't play like Jane  :whistle:


Nothing stopping anyone calling a racehorse names.....maybe try not putting so much on....might change your thinking.


My punting just fine (thanks for asking) I don't punt for a living, treating it as a challenge so how much I have on bares no relevance at all, nor would it change my thinking on certain horses. With stats of 3 from 34 the evidence in this case would certainly support me  ;)

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Oct-26, 12:11 PM
Gintara,

I look at the place stats and what they pay....

Different picture emerges then.

Different again if you include fourth like Mark Read always did.

Fours
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-26, 12:26 PM
What does that even mean  :what:

You might look like Tarzan but doesn't mean you don't play like Jane  :whistle:

My punting just fine (thanks for asking) I don't punt for a living, treating it as a challenge so how much I have on bares no relevance at all, nor would it change my thinking on certain horses. With stats of 3 from 34 the evidence in this case would certainly support me  ;)
The more I read from you the more I'm not surprised that you have to ask..What does that even mean?

And then you sign off with another worn out cliche.....brilliant stuff.

You're on twitter.....go to Grahame  Begg racing.....it might help you understand.
He just retired Galaxy Raider....9yrs ....5 from 50......you can find a name for him too I suppose.

Grahame couldn't speak more highly of the horse and just for all the fat ar#ed lounge critics puts a picture of his fall at Flemington.
Had a nasal operation after that.......he pointing that out just  for the likes of you!

You still won't get it , will you?
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-26, 12:35 PM
Back on Chapada.....look at his form at 2000 metres at Flemington.

All high level races...generally way outside of the market but yet consistent....aye?

You call yourself a video man....don't you????
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Oct-26, 12:40 PM
nemisis,

You probably missed it but I tipped Chapada a few times in the tipping comp. The big place divs... paying a multiple of the likely winners win dividend... being why.

Fours
ps "How much profit can I make if I do this?  is always a much better question to ask then who wins the race.... just saying.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-26, 02:08 PM
Back on Chapada.....look at his form at 2000 metres at Flemington.

All high level races...generally way outside of the market but yet consistent....aye?

You call yourself a video man....don't you????

nemisis,

You probably missed it but I tipped Chapada a few times in the tipping comp. The big place divs... paying a multiple of the likely winners win dividend... being why.

Fours
ps "How much profit can I make if I do this?  is always a much better question to ask then who wins the race.... just saying.

Can you two stop talking about Chapada? I need therapy over his scratching,   :lol:

Likes Flemington, got home strongly in CC, was at great odds, field weak as it comes etc. If he is not injured and kept for another race in the Carnival, I will need more therapy.   :lol:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-26, 10:19 PM
The more I read from you the more I'm not surprised that you have to ask..What does that even mean?

And then you sign off with another worn out cliche.....brilliant stuff.



Well your the one who claims to know it all - having a brilliant action doesn't make you fast  :bulb: nor does increase your intestinal fortitude, some horses have a will to win, some are just pack chasers ;) 

Back on Chapada.....look at his form at 2000 metres at Flemington.

All high level races...generally way outside of the market but yet consistent....aye?

You call yourself a video man....don't you????

High level? Maybe that says more about the stable (insert saying from TJ about the company to keep yourself & your horses in)

Anyway 3 starts for 3 places - thanks for backing up my stats with his consistency ;)
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-27, 06:42 AM
Well your the one who claims to know it all - having a brilliant action doesn't make you fast  :bulb: nor does increase your intestinal fortitude, some horses have a will to win, some are just pack chasers ;) 

High level? Maybe that says more about the stable (insert saying from TJ about the company to keep yourself & your horses in)

Anyway 3 starts for 3 places - thanks for backing up my stats with his consistency ;)
Once again, I'm not surprised by these comments at all by you!
I don't claim to be a know-all......I admire athletes.....I must have been born like that.....racehorses are athletes.
 Just put up something to show that you have ever given your own body a real test in an athletic pursuit.
I've never booed anybody having a go!

Mike Moroney's comments on Chapada went for a couple of minutes.....I shared one line.

I don't claim to be a winning punter but recently I've found a way to go OK.....OK
It involves giving Sky the flick....a strict deposit limit.....betting on the Vic .races on Racing.com.....that generally means 6 or 7 races on the card.
Trying to get to know a bit more about only a certain number of horses.
Finding a fit horse  in  parade ring.....ala Hong Kong.....that sort of thing

I have to say as well Gintara, you have trained racing animals haven't you?.....what did you do with your dogs that lacked "intestinal fortitude" as you call it?
Do you want to answer that one?
Here's another question that might cause you difficulties...Chapada cost $32.5k.....has won $1,222,440....more to come....now explain "money muncher"....please?
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-27, 08:19 AM
Interesting going's on in the Cup betting.

It was pointed out on another forum but Floating Artist is being backed in the future's market....$19 today

He was 27th and today 26th in order.....some people always know something, don't they?

Anyway that also means Hasta La War gets closer to a start.......hope he can pass the tests.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-27, 03:17 PM
Strewth.....Amade has almost done a Chautauqua.

Last week it looked a bit like he just missed the kick.

Today in The Bendigo Cup just didn't want to leave the barrier......20 lengths he gave away.
Wonder what's going on .....wonder if his previous injury is on his mind.
That's one future's bet gone!
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-27, 04:53 PM
Just looking at the field, I do wonder if they will get the full 24 and how short Incentivise will start. There are currently 28 qualified at the moment but is changing. No 8 Away He Goes is out and there are a couple more being scoped over next few days.

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2021-rv/the-sport/2021-10-25-lexus-melbourne-cup-4th-acc-oct-25.pdf?la=en

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-27, 08:11 PM


I have to say as well Gintara, you have trained racing animals haven't you?.....what did you do with your dogs that lacked "intestinal fortitude" as you call it?
Do you want to answer that one?


Well it's clear you know little about me, there's two currently in the back yard, one is the best performed female from a litter than won over 100 races, close to $400k with a brother who stood at stud, kept for breeding but I ended up disenchanted and she's living out her days here. Whilst she won races and was placed in town she was 1/2 a step slow to the first mark which put her in the ruck more often than not, she's magnificent to look at but she was more diesel than jet engine, top speed was good when she wound up, just couldn't pick up again if she copped a check.

I've never put a dog down because it was slow. One of the last I raced was 15L slower than a slow dog, she didn't know it, though she was pretty good, tried pretty hard but just didn't have it. To be fair on her she had an issue with lameness in one foot which made keeping her fit nigh on impossible, she lived out her days here to over 13 - look her up, Smithy's Image was her name.

So what's your point because it's clear you love a snide remark, implied slur  :stop:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-27, 08:14 PM
Interesting out of the Bendigo Cup today - as the crossed the line and Rick Macintosh gave the run on he got back to Akatu - he's looks like he could be anything but he's just not racing well ....

Sound familiar  :whistle:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-27, 08:45 PM
Shame they don't run the Cup day hurdle anymore  :chin:

He's a gay deciver / money muncher who I just put a line through.  :whistle:

That said I do that with a lot out of the Moroney stable.  :/
I don't care about the grade of your dogs.
I can fully account for the 3 I ever owned.

Look at these comments about Chapada.
Look at these names......I was 19 or 20 when Grenville Hughes had a quiet word it my ear about calling race horses names.
It came from a jockey who rode his horses on long loose reins and back in the 70's didn't overdo the stick.....magic in his hands and way ahead of his time.
It was good advice and I took it!

Look at you slagging off at the horse and trainer because you can't make a buck out of them.
Would you like to see Chapada crash at the hurdles as well?

Aktau???? I'd say look at the surfaces he raced on....no different to a lot of Victorian stayers.
Check out a few horses that came off Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day last year....track was concrete.
That's exactly what these tracks do!

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-28, 07:52 PM
Just looking at the field, I do wonder if they will get the full 24 and how short Incentivise will start. There are currently 28 qualified at the moment but is changing. No 8 Away He Goes is out and there are a couple more being scoped over next few days.

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2021-rv/the-sport/2021-10-25-lexus-melbourne-cup-4th-acc-oct-25.pdf?la=en



It seems there are more non runners and doubt about the 2nd favourite too.

Out of the 28 that have qualified, Away He Goes, Mosh Music and Hasta La War are now out.

If Spanish Mission is out, Incentivise will be close to odds on.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/melbourne-cup-second-favourite-spanish-mission-to-undergo-veterinary-reexamination-after-swelling-on-leg-20211028
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-28, 08:42 PM
I'm really disappointed to see Hasta La War taken out.

There goes that futures bet as well.
At least it is not another tendon injury for him.......foot abscess.

He is a good stayer that fellow.....really bad luck for the connections because it looks like he would have got a run.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-28, 08:56 PM
Nemesis, I think the bigger issue after this will the scoping of horses as the lack of  o/s runners has really hurt the depth of the field. However RVL had to do something due to the casualties over the past few years. It seems rather strange that the Australian horses are pulling out too at a higher rate than expected too.

I will be intrigued to see how Gold Trip runs in Sydney after his scratching last week. He will be racing on a good track too as the weather looks good.

Melbourne has showers forecast over next couple of days but should soft 5 at the worst unless it is a lot more than forecast. Interestingly after Derby Day, the weather is supposed to be quite good.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Oct-28, 09:07 PM

SPEED HUMPS ..............RVL and the corporates love 'em



Johnny Get Angry's position in the Cup field has come under fire after being beaten a combined margin of 48L at his last two starts.

Outspoken jockey Glen Boss, winner of three consecutive Melbourne Cups aboard the great Makybe Diva, was particularly scathing of Johnny Get Angry taking up a spot in the 24-horse field.

"He shouldn't be in the race. He's going to attract no turnover, no money," Boss told RSN listeners on Wednesday.

"He's simply going to do nothing for the race, apart from being a bit of a speed hump.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-28, 09:16 PM
I'm really interested to see what RVL will do with the track Cup Day, Jeunes.

There are some storms around Melbourne tonight and  a bit of rain tomorrow.
I think it will be a nice 4-5 on Saturday......that's a good surface for horses.

Pretty dry and warming up on Sunday and Monday and 29 on Cup day.
There will be some very nervous committee members......I reckon they will instruct the course manager to really give the track a good soaking for Tuesday.

Couldn't possibly have the Cup horses go around on a good 3, would they?
They cannot afford another breakdown.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-28, 09:37 PM
I agree that RVL will be very nervous on Melbourne Cup regarding the track.

Regardless of all the spin from Vílandys and his media mates, this is the race that  all Australia remembers. Over the years, Sydney tried the Slipper, then the Championships and now the Everest to become the number one race in the country for the general public eye but the MC is still the horse race that most people have a bet on.

Thus if anything goes bad, people will remember it. A good 4 or soft 5 will be ideal for the RVL. Without putting a dampener or being a mock for the future and due respect to all runners, the worst thing for RVL will be anything bad happens to any horses in the field especially after the scanning.

As a racing enthusiast, Derby Day is my favourite race of the day and it will be very interesting to see how the track plays out as it has not been raced on since Turnbull stakes.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-28, 09:42 PM
There is decent old money for Floating Artist....got into $15 at one stage today on Sportsbet......still 25th in order.
But someone knows something alright.

The Nathaniel breed is one of the Galileo line that do like firmish tracks.
I like the breed.
50 kgs and no luck at Moonee Valley at all and this is a handicap
.
Get the feeling he could be the stables big hope!

I hope C Waller lets Selino  roll along like he raced in the UK.
He was very good behind Spanish Mission twice carrying equal weights.
Looked a lovely horse really free striding along and strong as.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-28, 10:03 PM
Floating Artist and Tralee Rose could be interesting runners as they have low weights. Floating Artist is now 25th in order  with Mosh Music and Away He Goes.

I am getting on Incentivise and Very Elegant as standouts. I do like Selino, Sheís Ideel and Persan for a rough place show. Will chuck a few more up the betting order for the exotics though. I hopefully will be good then.   :lol:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Oct-28, 10:21 PM
Plenty of leader types......

Suggest at least 1 ticket(s)/approach consist only of leaders if they go slow mid race.

Fours
ps otherwise you should know who is really advantaged to come on into the finish.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-29, 02:07 PM
Any chance of a moderator merging both threads?
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: westie on 2021-Oct-29, 04:35 PM
Any chance of a moderator merging both threads?
Jeunes
I've been trying for the past hour or so to merge. I don't think it can happen because both topics are in different boards ie 'Racing Talk' and 'Vic Gallops'. If both were in the same board it wouldn't ne a problem.  Perhaps MagiC can produce some magic.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-29, 04:37 PM
Jeunes
I've been trying for the past hour or so to merge. I don't think it can happen because both topics are in different boards ie 'Racing Talk' and 'Vic Gallops'. If both were in the same board it wouldn't ne a problem.  Perhaps MagiC can produce some magic.

Thanks for trying mate.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: westie on 2021-Oct-29, 05:11 PM
Thanks for trying mate.
Jeunes
Worked it out , all Good and merged.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-29, 05:16 PM
Well done Westie..... :thumbsup:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: westie on 2021-Oct-29, 05:19 PM
I spoke to soon, I can still see the thread so have done the next best thing and locked it.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-29, 05:22 PM
Thanks for trying again Westie.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-29, 05:48 PM
Interesting news that if Very Elegant runs in the MC that JMac could ride it as Lane is now riding The Chosen One. That means either Lane got sacked or Very Elegant is not running. She is currently 13/1 and if she runs, she will be a lot shorter.

Spanish Mission failed his second scan but will undergo another examination this weekend. He is now out to $9 with the Tab.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/melbourne-cup-damian-lane-confirmed-to-ride-the-chosen-one-20211029

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/spanish-mission-remains-in-contention-for-tuesdays-melbourne-cup-although-hes-not-totally-out-of-the-woods-as-vets-continue-to-monitor-the-star-international-raider-20211029
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-29, 08:05 PM
The current state of affairs for the final field.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/2021-melbourne-cup-field-as-it-stands-on-friday-afternoon-20211029
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2021-Oct-30, 08:57 AM
$9.00 for Spanish Mission is very good odds.
Should I invest more?
He will pass examination today and run like the wind Tuesday.
Hopefully.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Oct-30, 09:31 AM
Needs 4000m+ to beat Twilight Payment home
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-30, 12:22 PM
So not much really changes re entry into the Cup after The Hotham.

It now comes down to whether trainers want to run certain horses and what the Vets say.

Floating Artist and even Emissary still strong possibilities

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-30, 12:32 PM
I don't care about the grade of your dogs.
I can fully account for the 3 I ever owned.


You do have a chip on your shoulder don't you - full of snide remarks yet then can't even comprehend the answer given.  :thumbsd:

Your like the loud bloke sitting at the end of the bar puffing out your chest like you know it all but never have any evidence to back up the innuendo your sprout.  :shutup:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-30, 12:38 PM


Look at you slagging off at the horse and trainer because you can't make a buck out of them.
Would you like to see Chapada crash at the hurdles as well?



Amazing the leap you can make when you dream up assumptions.  :wacko:  :thumbsd:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-30, 12:49 PM
You do have a chip on your shoulder don't you - full of snide remarks yet then can't even comprehend the answer given.  :thumbsd:

Your like the loud bloke sitting at the end of the bar puffing out your chest like you know it all but never have any evidence to back up the innuendo your sprout.  :shutup:
You are exactly the reason you would never see me at any end of any bar.

Beer swilling people sitting in judgement on the courage of a racehorse make me sick.
You can't answer questions I put to you.

You can't handle the good towelling I gave you on the Final Race thread....now p3ss off.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: firezuki on 2021-Oct-30, 01:34 PM
Needs 4000m+ to beat Twilight Payment home


I agree with this after watching a few runs of his on YouTube.


I think he gets too far back and grinds.  Not sure that can win the Cup. 


He's not getting my cash. 
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2021-Oct-30, 04:37 PM
Yes Wiles that 3300 metre race against Stradivarius was far longer than Melbourne.
They both hardly wound up.
Yep.
Try his amazing Belmont win..
He certainly can win below your '4000' metres..
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-30, 05:30 PM
Most of the favourites have drawn out wide.

Only 7 runners are under 20/1 while 8 are over 150/1.

Maybe exotics and standouts are the best value this year.

If Incentivise does not finish in the top 4, the first 4 could be anything.  :dry:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-30, 05:43 PM
Race 7 - 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES)Times displayed in local time of Race Meeting
Of $7,750,000.1st $4,400,000, 2nd $1,100,000, 3rd $550,000, 4th $350,000, 5th $230,000, 6th $160,000, 7th $160,000, 8th $160,000, 9th $160,000, 10th $160,000, 11th $160,000, 12th $160,000
Prize money contribution totalling 3% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution GROUP 1
Handicap, Minimum Weight 49kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Apprentices cannot claim.

Track Name: Main Track Type: Turf

Field Limit: 24

No   Last 10   Horse   Trainer   Jockey   Barrier   Weight   Penalty   Hcp Rating
1   1131x33912   TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)   Joseph O'Brien   Jye McNeil   2   58kg      117
2   111111x111   INCENTIVISE   Peter G Moody   Brett Prebble   16   57kg   1.5kg   123
3   17x2513x2x   SPANISH MISSION (USA)   Andrew Balding   Craig Williams   14   57kg      117
4   x3112x2143   VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)   Chris Waller   James McDonald   19   57kg      118
5   132113x950   EXPLOSIVE JACK (NZ)   Ciaron Maher & David Eustace   John Allen   4   54kg      115
6   x2606x3420   THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)   Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman   Damian Lane   5   54kg      114
7   111x6x4210   DELPHI (IRE)   Anthony & Sam Freedman   Damien Oliver   3   53.5kg   1.0kg   112
8   1x610x5059   OCEAN BILLY (NZ)   Chris Waller   Damien Thornton   13   53.5kg      112
9   86541x0840   SELINO (GB)   Chris Waller   Ron Stewart   24   53.5kg      110
10   29431x0090   JOHNNY GET ANGRY (NZ)   Denis Pagan   Lachlan King (a)   22   53kg      113
11   x8511x9097   KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE)   Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott   Daniel Stackhouse   9   53kg      107
12   5x1244x373   PERSAN   Ciaron Maher & David Eustace   Luke Currie   11   53kg      109
13   07422x4747   CARIF   Peter & Paul Snowden   Blaike McDougall   8   52.5kg      108
14   x663x00030   MASTER OF WINE (GER)   Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes   Fred Kersley   6   52.5kg      113
15   x22x722x54   PONDUS (GB)   Robert Hickmott   Ms Rachel King   1   52.5kg      111
16   x221211251   GRAND PROMENADE (GB)   Ciaron Maher & David Eustace   Kerrin McEvoy   21   52kg   1.0kg   108
17   78333x0095   MIAMI BOUND (NZ)   Danny O'Brien   Patrick Moloney   17   52kg      111
18   x1510x0600   PORT GUILLAUME (FR)   Ben & JD Hayes   Harry Coffey   23   52kg      101
19   2324x37197   SHEíS IDEEL   Bjorn Baker   Craig Newitt   20   52kg      111
20   3x6133x086   FUTURE SCORE (IRE)   Matt Cumani   Dean Yendall   15   51.5kg      107
21   12114x3321   TRALEE ROSE (NZ)   Symon Wilde   Dean Holland   12   51kg      106
22   x55x011132   FLOATING ARTIST (GB)   Ciaron Maher & David Eustace   Teodore Nugent (a)   10   50kg      106
23   x132751551   GREAT HOUSE (IRE)   Chris Waller   Michael Dee   7   50kg      107
24   x41x81x248   SIR LUCAN (IRE)   Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott   Glen Boss   18   50kg      110


It looks like a race of not a lot of real chances to me.

I reckon Floating Artist is going to be supported....Maybe not quite like Hitotsu.
I took some of the $16 and $4.60, a bit of a plan has paid off for Floating Artist there.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Oct-30, 05:45 PM
Jeunes,

There is nearly always a bad luck story among the top weights... just a matter of which one...

The prize ( dont know who gets it yet ) will cover a couple of scenarios.

Fours
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Oct-30, 08:28 PM
Yes Wiles that 3300 metre race against Stradivarius was far longer than Melbourne.
They both hardly wound up.
Yep.
Try his amazing Belmont win..
He certainly can win below your '4000' metres..



Needs 4000m+ to beat Twilight Payment home


Their only clash was 4014m :bulb:
Far too far for TP. Taking a line through Princess Zoe & search for a song over shorter trips TP out performs SM.

video doesnít lie But hey, good luck :thumbsup:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-30, 09:34 PM
The track could be a good 3 unless watered on the day to make it a good 4 as the weather is supposed to be quite good over there for next few days.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-31, 07:15 AM
The track was excellent yesterday.....horses really letting down on it.
It looks a bit different to my eye.....just supports my claims that they have altered the profile in the last 12 months.
Looks lush and some loam has been added to it.....for sure!

How sad that the free draining sand profile was allowed to do so much damage to so many horses for so long.

The real test will come on Tuesday.....possibly 30 C.
They will be saturating it until then.
Safe racing surfaces for horses should always have been the first consideration in any track profile!
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Oct-31, 09:49 AM
You are exactly the reason you would never see me at any end of any bar.

Beer swilling people sitting in judgement on the courage of a racehorse make me sick.
You can't answer questions I put to you.

You can't handle the good towelling I gave you on the Final Race thread....now p3ss off.

  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Hence why I'd walk through that bar not paying any attention to the irrelevant white noise coming from the end.

You can't handle being exposed as one who revels in innuendo that can't provide a shred of evidence when called out. You prefer to smear people with snide remarks  emthdown
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Oct-31, 09:53 AM
 :chin: :chin: :chin:

I see Greg Carpenter agrees with me about Incentivise being possibly an absolute standout ( which we have not seen yet ) and also Tralee Rose as the more conventional light weight hope.

Fours
ps however he himself says his tipping record in the race s not great ( how the hell did he get the job as chief handicapper then?  :chin: :chin: :chin:)
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-31, 10:23 AM
   :lol:     :lol:     :lol:     :lol:  

Hence why I'd walk through that bar not paying any attention to the irrelevant white noise coming from the end.

You can't handle being exposed as one who revels in innuendo that can't provide a shred of evidence when called out. You prefer to smear people with snide remarks  emthdown
Let the thread get back on topic, halfwit.

You have a problem with truth tellers....that is your problem1
ABC tell the public the truth about small prey hunting dogs and the callous disregard for them when they are not fast enough.
Tell the truth about where and how racehorses can end up when no one wants them and you want to tell everyone the ABC is at fault....what a halfwit!

Go back and answer questions I put to you on the Final Race thread.....it's been months.

I don't drink.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-31, 01:03 PM
The other competition at the Cup.   :lol:

https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/melbourne-cup/melbourne-cup-punters-wild-antics-caught-on-camera/news-story/c5ac47535a916114e799009009b832d9
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: firezuki on 2021-Oct-31, 01:28 PM
I've narrowed it down to 3.


22. Floating Artist


23.  Great House


24.  Sir Lucan


IF Incentivise gets 2 miles he probably wins but I'm not convinced he will. 


Twilight Payment will lead for a long way.  Delphi could surprise and has best jock.


Persan will be thereabouts at the finish whilst Grand Promenade hasn't put a hoof wrong. 


I don't think Tralee Rose will get 2 miles but will race handily. 


More work to do!
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Oct-31, 01:45 PM
Well firezuki..

My main second pick after twilight was a choice between tralee Rose and Great House..

I went Tralee Rose.

Fours
ps regarding Sir Lucan - insufficient evidence to form a real solid view.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: firezuki on 2021-Oct-31, 01:58 PM
His form looks eerily similar to Rekindling and Cross Counter - happily both backed by moi.


Not sure he has the acceleration of those two but I think he might. 


He's going to appreciate a good track as well. 
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Oct-31, 02:08 PM
Anyone think there might be just a little concern the way Great House crossed the line yesterday?
I have him as a soft tracker.

I took $126 about Selino this morning....surely he is not a $126 chance.
He was set a big task in the Sydney Cup, but watch him go against Spanish Mission in the Doncaster Cup with equal weights.
He went to go with him when challenged but couldn't do it.....big gap back to 3rd.
Flemington should suit him......the impressive bit about Selino is always the very last bit.
He's always been qualified so it's just been one goal.

I've had quite a bit more on Floating Artist.
Is this Firezuki fellow a good judge?????

I am a Incentivise believer as well......most of my exotics, he'll be there.
The price and the breeding......where has this horse with this breeding come from?.

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Oct-31, 02:10 PM
Here is more confusing information to process.   :lol:

https://www.racenet.com.au/melbourne-cup/horses
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: firezuki on 2021-Oct-31, 02:49 PM
Sir Lucan:  He failed last start but there were excuses. Glen Boss has been booked to ride and he knows a thing or two about Melbourne Cups. Will likely roll forward and sit on the speed.

These idiots obviously haven't watched him race.  My concern is that he'll get too far back. 
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Wenona on 2021-Nov-01, 09:02 AM
I've got Incentivise a $2.25 chance. Can't back anything to beat him. If he destroys them here some of the others who actually fancied their chances to win might get busted up so as my interest I've taken $6.50 Port Guillaume to finish top 10 - should probably drop out to near last and hopefully run past enough broken hearts in the straight to get the bet home. Hope the favourite wins by four though, would be great to see.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2021-Nov-01, 09:31 AM
I see Twilight leading to the 250, Incentivise takes over, slowly, as he too is knackered.
Meanwhile , my beloved boy Spanish Mission comes harder, out of the pack, slowly wears em both down..overtaking comfortably 100 m out...
3,2,1.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Nov-01, 09:36 AM
Shogun,

That will happen after the winning post - ie the 4000m mark.

Fours
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: firezuki on 2021-Nov-01, 10:37 AM
I reckon there might actually be a decent pace on this year in which case Sir Lucan is my pick.


As long as the track is good, though he's not useless on soft.


Floating Artist should have won the MV Cup and is in good form, thrown in at the weight.


Don't knowthat MV Cup form is good enough though.


Great House won the Hotham well but again it's not the form race it used to be.


Again thrown in at the weight and will be thereabouts.


So Sir Lucan for me but might have a little saver on the other two.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Nov-01, 11:30 AM
Geez FZ, you're putting a lot of faith in Waterhouse to get that thing home.

What in his form do you see to think he's a hope?
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: firezuki on 2021-Nov-01, 01:16 PM
Just watched most of his runs and like the way he moves.


It's a very open race but I'm banking on quite a few not getting the 3200m.


Always fraught with danger!
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-01, 01:56 PM
It will be interesting to see just how soft the track will be at the start tomorrow.

Track will have "plenty of juice", "it's a long day" and need a "nice surface for all the horses" according to the track manager.
Quite different language being spoken now and at least everybody has been told.

I don't keep stats but I'd be surprised when Flemington really dries out, if there is ever a lot of action out wide and from the rear.

Be great to see the whole track being used and the back markers not disadvantaged.
I think there will be decent enough pace...we want a staying test!
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Nov-01, 02:04 PM
The inside or just off the inside of the track was very good on the weekend at times.

It will be very interesting to see how the leaders go tomorrow as there seems to be a couple of leaders tomorrow and if they collapse around the turn, you could see a back marker taking advantage. But if the leaders hang on or have a slow pace like last year, it is going to be hard. What they do with Twilight Payment will be the key.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Nov-01, 03:47 PM
Ok for what itís worth  in the cup Iím backing Twilight & playing F4s

1st : roaming Incentivise, Twilight, Persan , & Verry E
2nd : floating Artist, chosen one, Tralee, explosive Jack, Great House
3rd Spanish Mission Port Guillaime floating Artist, chosen one, Tralee, explosive Jack, Great House, knights order, grand P
4th field
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Nov-01, 04:26 PM
Ok. This is the chance for us to be heroes and be remembered for the entire year.  :beer:

Spanish Mission and Incentivise to fight it out with the local winning.

Best place bets. Floating Artist and Grand Promenade.



Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-01, 04:54 PM
Fair enough!

I take a more conservative approach these days.
Incentivise, Floating Artist, Selino and Grand Promenade.
Probably the order....but I'm boxing my tri's and ff.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Nov-01, 05:53 PM
A trip down memory lane.

https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-winners-list-pictures/587799b8-e8c3-49a9-a064-9b15d0ea6732
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Nov-01, 06:31 PM
Delphi and Future Score in doubt.

https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/melbourne-cup-2021-full-field-barrier-draw-and-jockeys-revealed/news-story/83c62fd2a1ad7d41d9016cfc1a130d71
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Nov-02, 06:54 AM
Delphi and Future Score passed fit to start.

The weather is fine and the track a good 4 at the moment. Melbourne is forecast to hit a maximum of 30 degrees by mid afternoon. There are showers expected in the evening so unless it comes early, it will be a good track all day.

Good luck today where dreams are made and legends of punting wins soar.   :lol:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-02, 07:09 AM
Fair bit of water on the track.

17mm between Saturday and Monday.....a "few" mm yesterday and another 10-11mm last evening.
I'm all for it.....nice safe track.....just got to get through the whole day!.....let's hope all the horses get home safely!

Has to be said though....what's the point of a fast draining sand tracks when you have to pump this much water into it to make it safe?

Future Score is out.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Nov-02, 07:37 AM
So we are down to 23 runners. It helps the other runners drawn out wide as Future Score would have not been pushed out and would be angling for a spot in mid field.

I agree with the watering of the track. I think it will dry out as the day wears on. It will be closer to a good 3 than good 4 at the time of the Cup. I could be wrong as usual but a firm track could benefit some horses more than the CC track.

The pace is the key and what the plans are with Incentivise is. Flemington is a long straight and inside played a lot better in past few cups than before.

Other than Delphi, there has been no real movement in the betting. Incentivise is $2.8 after opening up at $2.3 after the barrier draw. Tote price is higher and exchange is around $3.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-02, 10:00 AM
So on Racing Victoria's biggest day......a vastly experienced jockey like Luke Nolen wins the 1st race and the Racing.com man doesn't even ask him the most obvious of questions.....How was the track Luke?.....what a consistent fail they are!

How pathetic :thumbsd:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Nov-02, 11:55 AM
Let the thread get back on topic, halfwit.

You have a problem with truth tellers....that is your problem1
ABC tell the public the truth about small prey hunting dogs and the callous disregard for them when they are not fast enough.
Tell the truth about where and how racehorses can end up when no one wants them and you want to tell everyone the ABC is at fault....what a halfwit!

Go back and answer questions I put to you on the Final Race thread.....it's been months.

I don't drink.

Still struggling with comprehension & understanding I see, yet you've the hide to call me a half wit  :wacko:

Not my fault you can't handle being call out on your smear remarks.  :bye:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Nov-02, 12:08 PM
Playing the A/B/C first 4 method.

2,4,16 / 7,15,21,22 / 1,12,23

I've also taken a couple of rovers with this top 3.

Outside of the obvious with the fav, I've got VE clear 2nd, she's the forgotten horse, looked to my eye to be bolting coming to the bend in the Cox Plate, she goes wide and bogs down, the two who cut inside win the race which has me  :what: the track that day. Grand Promenade ticks a lot of boxes too.

VE & Grand Promenade are my best results, Delphi, Tralee Rose & Floating Artist are nice returns and if the fav wins well we can shout chinese  :p

Happy to risk Spanish Mission, I struggle to look past the uncertainty around the injury on what will be a hard track.  :/

Good luck all.  :beer:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Nov-02, 12:27 PM
Stupid question but does the inside or 4-5 horses off the rail looks a lot better than coming down the middle or outside?

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-02, 12:51 PM
It does to me Jeunes....isn't that a worry?
The biggest day as well. :what:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: firezuki on 2021-Nov-02, 02:07 PM
I dips me lid.


Loved her run in the Cup last year but thought she was weighted up to her best and didn't think


she was going as well this year.  Great run by a great mare.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-02, 02:20 PM
No winner for me but what a great mare.

Fantastic result for everyone involved and what another great chapter in the story of Zed.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Nov-02, 02:20 PM
firezuki,

My summation as well.

Fours
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: firezuki on 2021-Nov-02, 02:57 PM
I was so close Fours.  Only 13 horses beat me home.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: firezuki on 2021-Nov-02, 03:01 PM
1. Verry Elleegant (Jockey: J.McDonald, Trainer: C.Waller)
2. Incentivise (Jockey: B.Prebble, Trainer: P.Moody
3.  Spanish Mission (Jockey C Williams, Trainer: Andrew Balding
4. Floating Artist (Jockey: T.Nugent, Trainers: C.Maher & D.Eustace)

5. The Chosen One (Jockey: D. Lane, Trainers: M.Baker & A.Forsman)
6. Grand Promenade (Jockey: K. McEvoy, Trainers: C.Maher & D.Eustace)
7. Delphi (Jockey: D.Oliver, Trainers: A.Freeman & S.Freeman)
8. Selino (Jockey: R.Stewart, Trainer: C. Waller)
9. Tralee Rose (Jockey: D.Holland, Trainer: S. Wilde)
10. She's Ideel (Jockey: C.Newitt, Trainer: B.Baker)
11. Twilight Payment (Jockey: J.McNeil, Trainer: J.O'Brien)
12. Miami Bound (Jockey: P.Moloney, Trainer: D. O'Brien)
13. Great House (Jockey: M.Dee, Trainer: C.Waller)
14. Sir Lucan (Jockey: G.Boss, Trainers: G.Waterhouse & A.Bott)
15. Explosive Jack (Jockey: J.Allen, Trainers: C.Maher & D.Eustace)
16. Master Of Wine Jockey: K.McEvoy, Trainers: M.Hawkes, W.Hawkes & D.Hawkes)
17. Pondus (Jockey: R.King, Trainer: R.Hickmott)
18. Carif (Jockey: B.Mcdougall, Trainers: P.Snowden & P.Snowden)
19. Knights Order (Jockey: D.Stackhouse, Trainers: G.Waterhouse & A.Bott)
20. Persan (Jockey: L.Currie, Trainers: C.Maher & D.Eustace)
21. Port Guillaume (Jockey: H.Coffey, Trainers: B.Hayes & JD.Hayes)
22. Johnny Get Angry (Jockey: L.King, Trainer: D,Pagan)
23 (last). Ocean Billy (Jockey: D. Thornton, Trainer: C. Waller)
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Nov-02, 03:01 PM
All,

When the top 3 favs fill 3 spots count yourself very lucky to get 5g for the first four.

The market got only one thing wrong - the price of VE.

The jockey had the benefit of seeing and learning from last years mistakes and made sure that did not happene again. Still had to do it.

Fours
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2021-Nov-02, 03:15 PM
The handicapper was pretty good huh?
Thought I was a contender with Spanish, for about 1 second...
What a mare...she settled and brained em!
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Nov-02, 03:18 PM
Ok for what itís worth  in the cup Iím backing Twilight & playing F4s

1st : roaming Incentivise, Twilight, Persan , & Verry E
2nd : floating Artist, chosen one, Tralee, explosive Jack, Great House
3rd Spanish Mission Port Guillaime floating Artist, chosen one, Tralee, explosive Jack, Great House, knights order, grand P
4th field

My million combos returned a smallish profit.

How bloody good is that mare  :noteworthy:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-02, 03:24 PM
I thought Spanish Mission was an absolute stand out in the parade.

Easy after but the best 3 horses!...1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Nov-02, 04:19 PM
There is only one winner tonight and the tears will run deep for Waller.   :lol:

You can win every group 1 and Everest but this is the one that will really count in  the public eye.

Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-02, 05:37 PM
Still struggling with comprehension & understanding I see, yet you've the hide to call me a half wit  :wacko:

Not my fault you can't handle being call out on your smear remarks.  :bye:
If I wanted  lessons  in "comprehension" and "understanding", rest assured I wouldn't be going  to a greyhound trainer for them.

It's why I got right out of the industry when I retired my 2 dogs....I could never see a lot of "understanding"!

Just because you can't and don't answer questions.....doesn't make the questions smears.... does it?

Don't you think there was a bit of a smear about your post re Chapada and Mike Moroney?
Chapada runs in a $2 million race on Sat......we'll see how your $32 k  "money muncher" goes!
8th place pays $40k
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Nov-02, 07:58 PM
All,

When the top 3 favs fill 3 spots count yourself very lucky to get 5g for the first four.

The market got only one thing wrong - the price of VE.

The jockey had the benefit of seeing and learning from last years mistakes and made sure that did not happene again. Still had to do it.

Fours

Zahra was on last year, not JMac. Many wanted to pot her but she did run the fastest last 600m in 2020, wasn't helped that Zahra had her back in Kensington whilst they turned for home in Flemington  :dry:

He won it before the winning post the first time imho, managed to slide across and slot in without a problem down the straight the first time then got her in clear air down the back.  Turning for home I said to the dog - how far this? He hadn't moved with a lap full of horse.  :clap2:
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: fours on 2021-Nov-02, 08:11 PM
Gintara,

Yes Persan lost 10 lengths whereas she gained 10 lengths.....

Good result for you.

All of the top 4 finishers are cut above the rest and even 5th finshed well - no doubt I have not heard all of the reasons behind poor performances of some yet.

Fours
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Wenona on 2021-Nov-02, 08:20 PM
I missed her today but went back and had a look at her run in the Cup last year ...... she was enormous last year ... must have been 30+ off the lead when the speed went on ... ran the fastest last 600m of the race. Wonderful run.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: ratsack on 2021-Nov-02, 08:31 PM
I didn't think there was enough cut in the track for her .

Wro..................  again     :lol:  
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-02, 09:30 PM
There were some great runs today.
The Chosen One and Selino showed that a wet  Caulfield is not always a good guide.
My $126 shot Selino was really good.....the big wide looping run around the whole field was a huge ask.
Still strong at the end.....an excellent 8th.

Hopefully one day we'll get to see him run freely up on the pace...maybe one day!
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2021-Nov-03, 04:24 AM
I missed her today but went back and had a look at her run in the Cup last year ...... she was enormous last year ... must have been 30+ off the lead when the speed went on ... ran the fastest last 600m of the race. Wonderful run.

That ride generated a lot of negative comment - including I think from the trainer.

Should have finished a minute closer.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2021-Nov-03, 08:54 AM
Incentivise was seemingly injured in race ..I thought he looked funny at the 400m mark, a couple of weird strides..
Swelling..not too serious hopefully.
Scans to come etc.
What a great run from him, too.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-03, 11:53 AM
Well spotted Shogun.

It's evident in the head on Stewards' vision.
Incentivise is definitely trying to protect something in the straight.

Sure hope it's not serious.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Nov-03, 12:00 PM
He pulled up lame and waiting second scans. I hope he recovers. Tried his heart out yesterday. Thought he will fall back.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/serious-concerns-for-incentivise-after-suffering-melbourne-cup-injury-20211102
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2021-Nov-03, 04:49 PM
Me too...thought all 4 at the front were mighty.
Spanish Mission..wowee what a looker, what a genuine horse...
Craig was gonna be able to get on the rails about 300m into race, then steadies , goes wide, instead...then 3 wide whole way..the winner followed him too, all the way...they did 'the extra 50'..great race.
Except the boy was injured..hope it's not much.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: firezuki on 2021-Nov-07, 11:28 AM
Interesting to see Sir Lucan ran 4th to Yibir in the Great Voltigeur by less than 2 lengths.


Yibir just won the Breeders Cup Turf with a barnstorming finish. 


Methinks Sir Lucan didn't show his best in the Cup but he might still be one to watch. 


Maybe next year. 
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: timw on 2021-Nov-08, 12:41 PM
Quite a few articles on horse racing in the Melbourne labour party paper today including positive stories looking forward to autumn clashes.  Surprised me as racing has been getting little coverage for years.  Maybe the regular Saturday lift out form guide will come back!

Cheers
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: gunbower on 2021-Nov-08, 06:44 PM
Being a non -Victorian can you tell me which paper that is ?
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: timw on 2021-Nov-11, 08:24 AM
Today the Melbourne Left Paper (ie The Age) reported that AUD 375 million+ was wagered on Melbourne Cup Day or about USD 275 million. 

An article in the Paulick report  stated that Breeders' Cup Limited announced record pari-mutuel wagering handle for this year's two-day World Championships (held last Fri and Sat.O) Total commingled betting from 19 countries was almost $183 million (see 'Kirchner: Open Letter To Breeders' Cup, Del Mar And CHRB In Wake Of Juvenile Turf Imbroglio - Horse Racing News | Paulick Report' ) 

The turnover on Kentucky Derby Day 2021 was greater. 'https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/news/2021/06/03/kentucky-derby-winner-medina-spirit-fails-second-drug-test-trainer-bob-baffert-suspended/' reported that USD 155.4m was bet on the Derby close the USD165.5m Kentucky Derby record. Total handle for the entire 14-race Derby Day was USD 233m, again near 2019ís record of USD 250.9m.

I am uncertain exactly what is being measured in all cases but it does suggest the Melbourne Cup holds its own as a gambling event against anything horse race in the USA.   

I note that 'vegasslotsonline.com' reported that NBC Sports estimated that about 15 million people watched the 2021 Kentucky Derby from their homes.  I have not seen a figure for the Breeders Cup meeting.

Cheers
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: Jeunes on 2021-Nov-11, 09:06 AM
Timw, a couple of things.

Age is a left paper as News Corp is the right. News Corp gets paid a fair bit by Racing NSW to publish a lot of good stories about racing in Sydney plus a form guide. Most of the time, it includes pot shots as racing in Victoria. I donít know if the Fairfax papers get paid by the racing authorities.

Racing NSW increased the prizemoney of Golden Eagle to surpass MC. The reason given was that The Everest and the Eagle are two highest betting turnover races in NSW in front of all the Sydney Races. However no figures were given and no mention of the other new races like the Bondi, Invitation, Gong, Hunter, Silver Eagle in the scheme of the money spent and standing in the betting.

In Sydney, the Slipper got itís first increase in more than a decade. The Championships are great in the autumn but have paled comparatively to the publicity of the Everest and Eagle. Epsom Day was usually a great day but in past few years, the publicity has been minimal.

I like the Everest and Eagle but I do wish NSW will bolster up the other races too especially the big handicaps like Doncaster and Epsom. I have been to a few Doncaster and Epsoms in my life and the field sizes offers value as the excitement.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/the-golden-eagle-is-now-the-second-richest-race-in-australia-after-increase-20211109
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Nov-11, 09:20 AM
Without turning the thread political....The Age has a bias rating of 'Left Centre"

HOME THE AGE (AUSTRALIA)
The Age (Australia)
Last updated on June 24th, 2021 at 08:40 am

The Age - Left Center Bias - Liberal - Progressive - Labour - Credible - ReliableFactual Reporting: High - Credible - Reliable
LEFT-CENTER BIAS
These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias.  They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appeals to emotion or stereotypes) to favor liberal causes.  These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation. See all Left-Center sources.

Overall, The Age holds left-leaning editorial views and reports news factually; therefore, we rate The Age Left-Center Biased based on story selection and editorial positions that usually favor the left. We also rate them High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing and a clean fact check record.
Ends

Strike me pink!.....Peter Costello is the chairman of "Nine"......the newspaper's owner.......How far left would Costello allow the paper to go?
It's like any commercial organisation......it needs money and money bends knees.
Title: Melbourne Cup 2021
Post by: gunbower on 2021-Nov-11, 07:17 PM
Always makes me laugh when the "Tories " in this Country find it necessary to comment on a so called "left wing" Publication. What are these lefties thinking ? Gee they shouldn't be allowed to put their point of view. A different point of view - wow that is serious. Even worse that is not Rupert's view or whoever gave me my silver spoon. They were not thinking this way. What they criticize is the main tenet underlying the whole system that many of us believe is the very point of the whole system we seek to maintain. The right to free speech for all.